MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 20th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Minnesota at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Minnesota NY Yankees
Article Image Bartolo Colon Article Image Luis Severino
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-225 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.376 0.359 42.7% 6.9% 13.4% 35.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.304 32.4% 7.4% 28.3% 46.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.382 0.330 31.8% 4.2% 13.6% 48.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.239 0.238 24.6% 5.8% 29.9% 54.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.37 3.43 16.2% 4.1% 43.2% 35.4% 16.2%
2017 25 5.14 6.39 13.5% 5.5% 42.0% 37.0% 18.3%
L30 6 5.06 5.45 13.7% 4.1% 39.5% 37.5% 17.5%

Colon has not had the best of seasons. In 25 starts, he has a 5.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. He gives up a lot of hard contact, which leads to a lot of extra-base hits. Today he has to face the Yankees in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. As a large underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs, Colon is an easy fade in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Luis Severino
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,700 Salary: $12,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 4.06 5.83 21.2% 8.0% 45.1% 29.4% 20.6%
2017 29 3.27 2.93 29.2% 6.6% 51.3% 28.1% 19.0%
L30 5 2.87 1.83 33.1% 6.2% 53.8% 25.6% 23.1%

Severino will be the chalk of the early slate. He’s the most talented pitcher by far and he’s really the only one that won’t make you reach for a barf bag when you click his name. He has been in tremendous form recently, posting a 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33% and a ground ball rate of 54%. He is a massive favorite against the Twins, whose lineup isn’t too intimidating at this point of the season.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw the worst matchup on the board. Luis Severino has an elite strikeout rate, an elite ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. Even though the Twins are playing in a good ballpark, they are one of the easiest fades of the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.324 0.311 0.196 32.5% 9.5% 20.4% 39.1% 2B $3,900 2B $4,500 N/A N/A
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.354 0.390 0.130 40.5% 12.1% 13.2% 50.2% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.310 0.284 0.152 26.6% 8.9% 14.6% 39.0% SS $3,300 SS $3,600 N/A N/A
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.383 0.345 0.273 33.2% 7.3% 17.0% 38.4% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.302 0.269 0.178 27.4% 6.0% 30.4% 40.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.354 0.326 0.217 36.0% 9.2% 16.3% 41.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.325 0.317 0.216 33.8% 6.1% 20.1% 34.0% 3B $3,300 3B/SS $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.304 0.313 0.153 34.2% 12.5% 29.5% 40.6% C $2,300 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.334 0.341 0.166 29.6% 13.7% 19.3% 39.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees will be popular all around. Luis Severino is the top pitching option and the Yankees’ offense has the highest implied total in the early slate. They draw an excellent matchup against Bartolo Colon, who is a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, Colon has allowed a .359 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .330 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Nobody has a great track record against Bartolo, but we shouldn’t talk ourselves out of the Yankees.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.354 0.329 0.190 32.1% 11.1% 18.6% 40.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.419 0.424 0.320 43.8% 16.6% 31.8% 36.0% OF $4,400 OF $5,700 N/A N/A
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.372 0.372 0.254 36.0% 6.9% 23.5% 43.8% C $3,500 C $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.366 0.286 0.241 25.8% 4.8% 11.4% 38.2% SS $3,500 SS $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.349 0.325 0.135 32.3% 12.4% 23.4% 42.8% 1B $3,800 1B/3B $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.329 0.295 0.164 29.3% 3.1% 20.5% 49.2% 2B $2,800 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.352 0.345 0.155 26.8% 11.8% 11.4% 45.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.328 0.346 0.184 30.6% 14.4% 22.3% 37.1% 3B $3,800 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
9 Greg Bird LEFT 0.236 0.294 0.128 34.9% 11.1% 28.7% 30.6% 1B $2,500 1B $3,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Starlin Castro

Stackability – GREEN


NY Mets at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

NY Mets Miami
Article Image Rafael Montero Article Image Jose Urena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-160 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.296 27.5% 10.7% 20.1% 47.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.369 32.9% 9.8% 11.4% 36.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.369 0.322 24.8% 13.5% 23.4% 46.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.305 29.2% 7.7% 20.8% 50.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rafael Montero
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 5.40 8.05 21.5% 17.2% 35.7% 31.6% 17.5%
2017 16 4.79 5.08 21.8% 12.1% 46.9% 26.2% 20.2%
L30 6 5.28 3.60 21.1% 14.5% 46.9% 27.6% 23.5%

Montero isn’t a pitcher that we target often in DFS, but he does have a slightly above-average strikeout rate. His big issue has always been his command. In each of the last two seasons, Montero has had a strikeout rate of at least 12%. He checks into today’s matchup as a large underdog against the Marlins, who have been playing the better baseball of these two teams.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward with Montero.

Jose Urena
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.66 6.13 15.6% 7.8% 47.7% 32.5% 21.4%
2017 25 5.11 3.62 16.2% 8.7% 43.1% 31.1% 19.2%
L30 5 4.95 3.67 17.4% 11.3% 57.0% 25.9% 17.3%

If you are playing on a single pitcher site, just lock in Luis Severino. If you are playing on a multi-pitcher site, the SP2 decision is a difficult one. Urena has a decent ERA this season, but his peripheral numbers suggest some serious regression. In 25 starts, he has a 5.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. I do like his matchup against the Mets though, as they only have three hitters with an xwOBA over .300 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Urena is one of a few viable options at SP2, but I’d rather look to the game in San Francisco.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets may not have the most potent offense at the moment, but they draw a decent matchup against Jose Urena. On the season, Urena has allowed a .369 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. I wrote up Jose Reyes as an elite GPP play yesterday and I’m going right back to the well today. He has been red-hot over the last few weeks and has actually been hitting for power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.329 0.293 0.148 23.6% 6.9% 12.4% 55.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.290 0.282 0.142 26.9% 9.1% 13.7% 38.6% SS $4,100 3B/SS $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.321 0.332 0.182 37.3% 9.5% 16.5% 41.1% 3B $3,800 2B/SS $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.331 0.336 0.253 37.7% 5.7% 20.8% 50.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,200 N/A N/A
5 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.266 0.299 0.158 33.7% 4.3% 14.8% 40.0% C $2,700 C $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.381 0.356 0.163 35.7% 17.1% 24.4% 44.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.298 0.257 0.131 29.8% 5.1% 20.5% 52.8% OF $2,700 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Gavin Cecchini RIGHT 0.171 0.172 0.026 13.8% 0.0% 23.7% 48.3% 2B $2,400 2B $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Rafael Montero RIGHT 0.092 0.139 0.000 7.7% 0.0% 31.6% 81.8% P $7,200 P $6,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Domonic Smith, Brandon Nimmo

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins are sizable favorites in a game that features a high total for this ballpark. Their matchup against Rafael Montero doesn’t stand out when you look at his splits, but he tends to walk a lot of batters, which leads to a lot of RBI opportunities. Giancarlo Stanton did not hit home run number 56 last night, but he still has 11 games to hit five more to reach 60 on the season. Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna are also viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.319 0.259 0.072 17.9% 5.0% 14.0% 55.5% 2B $4,300 2B $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Tomas Telis SWITCH 0.272 0.280 0.110 28.1% 2.6% 11.8% 57.8% 1B $2,200 1B $2,800 N/A N/A
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.391 0.382 0.326 37.7% 10.6% 25.9% 43.6% OF $4,000 OF $5,700 N/A N/A
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.384 0.360 0.259 40.3% 8.7% 22.8% 44.7% OF $3,600 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.370 0.393 0.233 43.2% 11.2% 20.7% 40.2% 1B $3,600 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.278 0.251 0.086 30.4% 10.3% 30.8% 56.5% 3B $2,200 3B $2,600 N/A N/A
7 Ichiro Suzuki LEFT 0.270 0.254 0.090 18.2% 8.1% 16.9% 52.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Mike Aviles RIGHT 0.287 0.243 0.114 13.9% 9.8% 17.6% 48.6% SS $2,100 2B/OF $2,200 N/A N/A
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.132 0.142 0.028 20.8% 0.0% 42.9% 41.7% P $8,200 P $7,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Oakland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Oakland Detroit
Article Image Daniel Mengden Article Image Anibal Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-110 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.314 22.0% 2.0% 16.0% 43.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.310 31.3% 5.6% 18.8% 33.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.373 28.1% 9.5% 14.3% 41.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.430 0.350 42.7% 5.7% 22.3% 40.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Mengden
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 6.50 21.4% 9.9% 39.5% 29.5% 18.8%
2017 4 4.85 4.30 15.2% 5.4% 43.1% 24.7% 17.8%
L30 2 3.60 1.20 21.2% 3.9% 57.9% 20.5% 18.0%

This series has been extremely high scoring thus far and there is no reason for that to change today. We have good hitting conditions yet again and two pitchers that are hittable. Mengden has pitched well in his last two starts, but his numbers as a whole aren’t great. On the season, he has a 4.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He has struggled with right-handed hitters throughout his career, which doesn’t bode well in a matchup against the Tigers.

Quick Breakdown: Mengden is an easy fade in all formats.

Anibal Sanchez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.39 5.87 20.2% 7.9% 39.6% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 14 4.22 7.03 20.6% 5.6% 37.0% 37.0% 16.5%
L30 3 2.94 7.59 31.4% 3.9% 33.3% 39.4% 12.1%

Sanchez has decent peripheral stats in the last month, but I’m not buying into them. The A’s have been on fire at the plate recently and they are slight favorites in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs. Sanchez is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Meanwhile, the A’s have an offense full of fly-ball hitters that make great contact. In other words, this matchup bodes better for the A’s than it does for Sanchez.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid both pitchers in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s have one of the highest implied totals on the board. They have been mashing the cover off the baseball and they draw an excellent matchup against Anibal Sanchez. The A’s hit a lot of home runs and Sanchez allows a lot of those. This should be a matchup made in heaven. On the season, Sanchez, has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Matt Olson hit ANOTHER home run last night. He has homered in six straight and he already has 12 in the month of September.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.316 0.304 0.138 25.8% 10.8% 22.5% 37.3% SS $3,600 SS $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.360 0.370 0.262 32.4% 13.7% 20.4% 33.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.352 0.370 0.181 36.7% 10.5% 14.8% 26.8% 2B $4,100 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.373 0.379 0.303 40.9% 10.3% 31.2% 39.4% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.439 0.401 0.431 44.4% 9.5% 27.2% 34.5% 1B $4,400 1B/OF $5,400 N/A N/A
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.307 0.311 0.179 35.3% 3.5% 24.9% 44.0% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.315 0.318 0.250 34.2% 3.6% 31.6% 42.3% OF $2,900 OF/SS $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.337 0.282 0.266 37.0% 9.6% 29.8% 36.1% 3B $2,500 3B $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.312 0.316 0.120 38.3% 12.9% 25.3% 45.8% C $2,600 C $2,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Marcus Semien, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy, Chad Pinder

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The A’s are a great stack, the Tigers are a great stack, and this is a great spot to stack the game as a whole. In his 18 career starts, Daniel Mengden has allowed a .343+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. This season, he has really struggled with righties. Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos have both been swinging hot bats, Miguel Cabrera is dirt cheap, and you can fill out the stack around those three.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.287 0.310 0.131 35.2% 8.7% 14.0% 35.2% 2B $3,200 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.365 0.329 0.183 27.3% 12.2% 19.5% 41.8% 3B $3,100 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.290 0.377 0.150 43.3% 9.1% 20.7% 40.0% 1B $2,500 1B $3,000 N/A N/A
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.319 0.350 0.183 42.7% 6.3% 23.3% 36.4% 3B $3,900 3B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Efren Navarro LEFT 0.156 0.232 0.000 37.5% 3.7% 37.0% 50.0% 1B $2,200 1B/OF $2,400 N/A N/A
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.295 0.307 0.123 39.7% 6.5% 27.2% 38.7% C $2,200 C $2,700 N/A N/A
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.335 0.302 0.165 35.7% 6.7% 21.7% 49.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.236 0.222 0.080 27.9% 8.3% 38.1% 57.1% OF $2,400 OF $2,500 N/A N/A
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.294 0.264 0.126 28.9% 4.4% 14.4% 51.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Alex Presley, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Colorado at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Colorado San Francisco
Article Image Tyler Chatwood Article Image Matt Moore
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-122 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.356 0.330 28.9% 14.1% 19.8% 58.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.449 0.418 34.3% 8.6% 17.2% 38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.324 29.7% 11.1% 18.6% 56.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.327 35.2% 8.1% 19.5% 37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Chatwood
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $8,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 27 4.62 3.87 17.5% 10.5% 57.2% 29.5% 19.0%
2017 23 4.86 4.57 19.2% 12.6% 57.9% 29.3% 22.2%
L30 3 4.70 1.77 18.4% 11.5% 57.4% 34.4% 21.3%

Chatwood hasn’t had a great season. In 23 starts, he has a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 13%. The command is a big issue for a pitcher with such a low strikeout rate. The good news is that he can afford to be more aggressive, as he gets to pitch in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. He has much better splits on the road throughout his career and he draws a favorable matchup against the Giants.

Quick Breakdown: Chatwood is my favorite SP2 on the board.

Matt Moore
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.39 4.08 21.2% 8.6% 38.2% 30.8% 15.3%
2017 29 4.82 5.39 18.9% 8.3% 37.6% 35.0% 15.9%
L30 4 4.94 4.50 16.7% 7.4% 40.0% 39.2% 13.9%

Moore has a decent track record in this ballpark and we know that the Rockies struggle on the road. If I had to rank my favorite SP2s, I would go Chatwood, Moore, and then Urena. On the season, Moore has a 4.82 SIERA with a hard contact rate of 35%. The issue here is that the Rockies have owned him in the past. Their current roster has a .483 wOBA in 103 plate appearances against him.

Quick Breakdown: Moore is a viable SP2, but I prefer Chatwood here.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies have hit Matt Moore very well in the past. The players with the best BvP are Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and DJ LeMahieu. Batters from both sides of the plate are viable here, as Moore has given up a .418 xwOBA to lefties and a .327 xwOBA to righties this season. This isn’t a great ballpark, but the Rockies are intriguing tournament plays that should fly under the radar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.415 0.410 0.197 39.8% 10.2% 8.3% 53.6% 2B $3,400 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.369 0.318 0.087 27.3% 4.0% 17.0% 45.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.536 0.442 0.438 37.2% 9.3% 10.6% 24.8% 3B $4,300 3B $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.453 0.360 0.405 52.1% 12.1% 32.6% 28.8% SS $3,400 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.267 0.259 0.090 25.0% 4.7% 23.3% 66.7% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.224 0.211 0.090 33.3% 3.1% 29.9% 58.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.326 0.301 0.176 34.2% 15.9% 31.8% 45.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.245 0.298 0.084 19.8% 9.4% 9.4% 60.5% C $2,700 C $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.163 0.200 0.000 16.7% 6.3% 18.8% 50.0% P $6,800 P $8,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Gerardo Parra, Trevor Story

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco

The Giants have been an easy offense to avoid this season. They have little to no firepower in their lineup and they draw a fairly difficult matchup against Tyler Chatwood, who has an elite ground ball rate. Chatwood pitches well on the road and he has a good track record against the Giants. As usual, I will be avoiding the Giants in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.287 0.274 0.107 27.5% 5.9% 22.4% 62.2% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.336 0.318 0.165 26.2% 8.1% 8.9% 40.5% 2B $3,100 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Denard Span LEFT 0.337 0.333 0.186 27.7% 7.3% 11.9% 41.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.337 0.349 0.108 29.9% 9.5% 11.8% 46.7% C $2,700 1B/C $2,800 N/A N/A
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.297 0.310 0.154 33.7% 7.3% 21.8% 48.7% SS $2,400 SS $2,600 N/A N/A
6 Jarrett Parker LEFT 0.309 0.293 0.191 22.9% 6.5% 26.0% 50.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.273 0.325 0.136 35.3% 6.7% 20.7% 46.0% 3B $2,300 3B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Ryder Jones LEFT 0.254 0.259 0.144 34.3% 6.1% 27.2% 38.4% 1B $2,100 1B/3B $2,100 N/A N/A
9 Matt Moore LEFT 0.127 0.132 0.000 10.7% 2.3% 34.1% 68.2% P $6,500 P $6,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED


Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
Article Image Chris Sale Article Image Wade Miley
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-180 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.246 0.264 17.3% 4.8% 30.2% 43.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.327 32.9% 13.6% 21.8% 60.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.256 0.243 30.8% 5.2% 37.0% 37.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.372 0.360 31.5% 12.0% 18.8% 49.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $13,200 Salary: $25,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.43 3.34 25.7% 5.0% 41.2% 31.7% 17.0%
2017 30 2.62 2.86 35.9% 5.1% 38.6% 28.5% 18.3%
L30 6 3.11 4.64 31.7% 6.9% 49.4% 29.9% 20.7%

There are two elite arms taking the mound tonight and both are pitching on the road. Sale is obviously one of those two aces. In 30 starts this season, he has a 2.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36%. He throws a ton of strikes, which allows him to pitch deep into games. He has an excellent track record against the Orioles, even though they are better than most people realize against left-handed pitching (tenth in team wOBA).

Quick Breakdown: Sale is your 1A when it comes to pitching options tonight. We’ll get to the 1B later.

Wade Miley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.21 5.37 19.3% 6.9% 47.3% 33.3% 17.3%
2017 30 5.01 5.32 19.3% 12.3% 50.9% 31.7% 16.8%
L30 5 4.99 5.87 19.4% 11.7% 49.3% 22.5% 18.3%

Miley is not a pitcher that I use in DFS, although I do love stacking against him. It worked out well in his last start against the Yankees, where they ended up scoring five hundred runs or so. Miley has a high SIERA, a below-average strikeout rate, and he walks a lot of batters. He struggles against batters from both sides of the plate and he has to face a low-strikeout Red Sox offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Miley in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are an intriguing stack tonight in Baltimore. Their implied run total isn’t that high, which should keep their ownership down outside of Mookie Betts, who figures to be one of the most popular plays in the outfield. This is a good ballpark for home runs and Boston draws an exploitable matchup against Wade Miley, who has allowed a .360 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.397 0.394 0.123 31.4% 18.1% 11.1% 40.0% 2B $3,300 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
2 Chris Young RIGHT 0.261 0.283 0.074 24.4% 12.7% 15.5% 37.2% OF $2,200 OF $4,300 OF $8,400
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.370 0.367 0.193 34.3% 14.9% 8.5% 42.6% OF $4,500 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.290 0.351 0.219 36.6% 14.3% 22.3% 39.4% 1B $2,600 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Sam Travis RIGHT 0.445 0.333 0.143 20.7% 12.2% 14.6% 44.8% 1B $2,000 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.304 0.276 0.089 28.2% 8.0% 15.9% 54.1% SS $3,400 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.505 0.373 0.238 37.9% 10.6% 27.7% 55.2% 3B $3,300 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.301 0.289 0.132 25.5% 8.1% 17.6% 38.2% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.365 0.333 0.147 28.4% 10.2% 18.6% 59.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Chris Young, Sam Travis, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have hit left-handed pitching fairly well this season, but they have a high strikeout rate as a whole and have to face arguably the best strikeout pitcher in baseball. On the season, Chris Sale has a 35% k-rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.334 0.330 0.180 36.2% 8.2% 26.5% 48.4% SS $3,700 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.352 0.383 0.248 45.7% 6.8% 14.8% 40.0% 3B $3,500 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.411 0.384 0.314 39.4% 9.0% 23.7% 42.3% 2B $3,000 2B $3,300 2B $6,600
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.313 0.315 0.163 32.7% 6.5% 18.8% 43.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.307 0.318 0.130 31.8% 3.9% 24.0% 50.0% OF $3,400 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.337 0.285 0.188 30.8% 5.5% 21.2% 43.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.296 0.308 0.129 34.3% 10.5% 40.1% 34.2% 1B $3,400 1B $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.414 0.385 0.239 42.4% 4.3% 24.7% 33.3% C $3,000 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Austin Hays RIGHT 0.951 0.730 1.000 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OF $2,600 OF $2,500 CF $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious