MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 20th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Minnesota at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET
Minnesota | NY Yankees | ||||||||||||||
Bartolo Colon | Luis Severino | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYY-225 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.376 | 0.359 | 42.7% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 35.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.289 | 0.304 | 32.4% | 7.4% | 28.3% | 46.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.382 | 0.330 | 31.8% | 4.2% | 13.6% | 48.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.239 | 0.238 | 24.6% | 5.8% | 29.9% | 54.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 33 | 4.37 | 3.43 | 16.2% | 4.1% | 43.2% | 35.4% | 16.2% | |
2017 | 25 | 5.14 | 6.39 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 42.0% | 37.0% | 18.3% | |
L30 | 6 | 5.06 | 5.45 | 13.7% | 4.1% | 39.5% | 37.5% | 17.5% |
Colon has not had the best of seasons. In 25 starts, he has a 5.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. He gives up a lot of hard contact, which leads to a lot of extra-base hits. Today he has to face the Yankees in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. As a large underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs, Colon is an easy fade in the early slate.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.
Luis Severino | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $10,700 | Salary: | $12,000 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 11 | 4.06 | 5.83 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 45.1% | 29.4% | 20.6% | |
2017 | 29 | 3.27 | 2.93 | 29.2% | 6.6% | 51.3% | 28.1% | 19.0% | |
L30 | 5 | 2.87 | 1.83 | 33.1% | 6.2% | 53.8% | 25.6% | 23.1% |
Severino will be the chalk of the early slate. He’s the most talented pitcher by far and he’s really the only one that won’t make you reach for a barf bag when you click his name. He has been in tremendous form recently, posting a 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33% and a ground ball rate of 54%. He is a massive favorite against the Twins, whose lineup isn’t too intimidating at this point of the season.
Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite play in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins draw the worst matchup on the board. Luis Severino has an elite strikeout rate, an elite ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. Even though the Twins are playing in a good ballpark, they are one of the easiest fades of the slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.311 | 0.196 | 32.5% | 9.5% | 20.4% | 39.1% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $4,500 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.390 | 0.130 | 40.5% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 50.2% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.284 | 0.152 | 26.6% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 39.0% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.345 | 0.273 | 33.2% | 7.3% | 17.0% | 38.4% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.302 | 0.269 | 0.178 | 27.4% | 6.0% | 30.4% | 40.2% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.326 | 0.217 | 36.0% | 9.2% | 16.3% | 41.5% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.325 | 0.317 | 0.216 | 33.8% | 6.1% | 20.1% | 34.0% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B/SS | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.304 | 0.313 | 0.153 | 34.2% | 12.5% | 29.5% | 40.6% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.334 | 0.341 | 0.166 | 29.6% | 13.7% | 19.3% | 39.8% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
NY Yankees
The Yankees will be popular all around. Luis Severino is the top pitching option and the Yankees’ offense has the highest implied total in the early slate. They draw an excellent matchup against Bartolo Colon, who is a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, Colon has allowed a .359 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .330 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Nobody has a great track record against Bartolo, but we shouldn’t talk ourselves out of the Yankees.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.329 | 0.190 | 32.1% | 11.1% | 18.6% | 40.9% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.419 | 0.424 | 0.320 | 43.8% | 16.6% | 31.8% | 36.0% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,700 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.254 | 36.0% | 6.9% | 23.5% | 43.8% | C | $3,500 | C | $5,300 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.286 | 0.241 | 25.8% | 4.8% | 11.4% | 38.2% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $4,800 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.349 | 0.325 | 0.135 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 23.4% | 42.8% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B/3B | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.295 | 0.164 | 29.3% | 3.1% | 20.5% | 49.2% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.345 | 0.155 | 26.8% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 45.2% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.346 | 0.184 | 30.6% | 14.4% | 22.3% | 37.1% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.236 | 0.294 | 0.128 | 34.9% | 11.1% | 28.7% | 30.6% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius
Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Starlin Castro
Stackability – GREEN
NY Mets at Miami – 1:10 PM ET
NY Mets | Miami | ||||||||||||||
Rafael Montero | Jose Urena | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
MIA-160 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.324 | 0.296 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 20.1% | 47.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.321 | 0.369 | 32.9% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 36.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.369 | 0.322 | 24.8% | 13.5% | 23.4% | 46.7% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.296 | 0.305 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 20.8% | 50.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Rafael Montero | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 3 | 5.40 | 8.05 | 21.5% | 17.2% | 35.7% | 31.6% | 17.5% | |
2017 | 16 | 4.79 | 5.08 | 21.8% | 12.1% | 46.9% | 26.2% | 20.2% | |
L30 | 6 | 5.28 | 3.60 | 21.1% | 14.5% | 46.9% | 27.6% | 23.5% |
Montero isn’t a pitcher that we target often in DFS, but he does have a slightly above-average strikeout rate. His big issue has always been his command. In each of the last two seasons, Montero has had a strikeout rate of at least 12%. He checks into today’s matchup as a large underdog against the Marlins, who have been playing the better baseball of these two teams.
Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward with Montero.
Jose Urena | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 12 | 4.66 | 6.13 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 47.7% | 32.5% | 21.4% | |
2017 | 25 | 5.11 | 3.62 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 43.1% | 31.1% | 19.2% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.95 | 3.67 | 17.4% | 11.3% | 57.0% | 25.9% | 17.3% |
If you are playing on a single pitcher site, just lock in Luis Severino. If you are playing on a multi-pitcher site, the SP2 decision is a difficult one. Urena has a decent ERA this season, but his peripheral numbers suggest some serious regression. In 25 starts, he has a 5.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. I do like his matchup against the Mets though, as they only have three hitters with an xwOBA over .300 against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Urena is one of a few viable options at SP2, but I’d rather look to the game in San Francisco.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets may not have the most potent offense at the moment, but they draw a decent matchup against Jose Urena. On the season, Urena has allowed a .369 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. I wrote up Jose Reyes as an elite GPP play yesterday and I’m going right back to the well today. He has been red-hot over the last few weeks and has actually been hitting for power.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.293 | 0.148 | 23.6% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 55.1% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.290 | 0.282 | 0.142 | 26.9% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 38.6% | SS | $4,100 | 3B/SS | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.321 | 0.332 | 0.182 | 37.3% | 9.5% | 16.5% | 41.1% | 3B | $3,800 | 2B/SS | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.336 | 0.253 | 37.7% | 5.7% | 20.8% | 50.6% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Travis d’Arnaud | RIGHT | 0.266 | 0.299 | 0.158 | 33.7% | 4.3% | 14.8% | 40.0% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.356 | 0.163 | 35.7% | 17.1% | 24.4% | 44.3% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Juan Lagares | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.257 | 0.131 | 29.8% | 5.1% | 20.5% | 52.8% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Gavin Cecchini | RIGHT | 0.171 | 0.172 | 0.026 | 13.8% | 0.0% | 23.7% | 48.3% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $2,600 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Rafael Montero | RIGHT | 0.092 | 0.139 | 0.000 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 31.6% | 81.8% | P | $7,200 | P | $6,700 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jose Reyes
Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Domonic Smith, Brandon Nimmo
Stackability – YELLOW
Miami
The Marlins are sizable favorites in a game that features a high total for this ballpark. Their matchup against Rafael Montero doesn’t stand out when you look at his splits, but he tends to walk a lot of batters, which leads to a lot of RBI opportunities. Giancarlo Stanton did not hit home run number 56 last night, but he still has 11 games to hit five more to reach 60 on the season. Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna are also viable.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dee Gordon | LEFT | 0.319 | 0.259 | 0.072 | 17.9% | 5.0% | 14.0% | 55.5% | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Tomas Telis | SWITCH | 0.272 | 0.280 | 0.110 | 28.1% | 2.6% | 11.8% | 57.8% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.382 | 0.326 | 37.7% | 10.6% | 25.9% | 43.6% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,700 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.360 | 0.259 | 40.3% | 8.7% | 22.8% | 44.7% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $5,100 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.370 | 0.393 | 0.233 | 43.2% | 11.2% | 20.7% | 40.2% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Brian Anderson | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.251 | 0.086 | 30.4% | 10.3% | 30.8% | 56.5% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B | $2,600 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Ichiro Suzuki | LEFT | 0.270 | 0.254 | 0.090 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 16.9% | 52.8% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Mike Aviles | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.243 | 0.114 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 48.6% | SS | $2,100 | 2B/OF | $2,200 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Jose Urena | RIGHT | 0.132 | 0.142 | 0.028 | 20.8% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 41.7% | P | $8,200 | P | $7,600 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton
Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Oakland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
Oakland | Detroit | ||||||||||||||
Daniel Mengden | Anibal Sanchez | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
OAK-110 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.314 | 0.314 | 22.0% | 2.0% | 16.0% | 43.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.361 | 0.310 | 31.3% | 5.6% | 18.8% | 33.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.298 | 0.373 | 28.1% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 41.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.430 | 0.350 | 42.7% | 5.7% | 22.3% | 40.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Daniel Mengden | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 14 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 39.5% | 29.5% | 18.8% | |
2017 | 4 | 4.85 | 4.30 | 15.2% | 5.4% | 43.1% | 24.7% | 17.8% | |
L30 | 2 | 3.60 | 1.20 | 21.2% | 3.9% | 57.9% | 20.5% | 18.0% |
This series has been extremely high scoring thus far and there is no reason for that to change today. We have good hitting conditions yet again and two pitchers that are hittable. Mengden has pitched well in his last two starts, but his numbers as a whole aren’t great. On the season, he has a 4.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He has struggled with right-handed hitters throughout his career, which doesn’t bode well in a matchup against the Tigers.
Quick Breakdown: Mengden is an easy fade in all formats.
Anibal Sanchez | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 26 | 4.39 | 5.87 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 39.6% | 31.8% | 18.3% | |
2017 | 14 | 4.22 | 7.03 | 20.6% | 5.6% | 37.0% | 37.0% | 16.5% | |
L30 | 3 | 2.94 | 7.59 | 31.4% | 3.9% | 33.3% | 39.4% | 12.1% |
Sanchez has decent peripheral stats in the last month, but I’m not buying into them. The A’s have been on fire at the plate recently and they are slight favorites in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs. Sanchez is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Meanwhile, the A’s have an offense full of fly-ball hitters that make great contact. In other words, this matchup bodes better for the A’s than it does for Sanchez.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid both pitchers in this game.
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
The A’s have one of the highest implied totals on the board. They have been mashing the cover off the baseball and they draw an excellent matchup against Anibal Sanchez. The A’s hit a lot of home runs and Sanchez allows a lot of those. This should be a matchup made in heaven. On the season, Sanchez, has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Matt Olson hit ANOTHER home run last night. He has homered in six straight and he already has 12 in the month of September.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Marcus Semien | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.304 | 0.138 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 22.5% | 37.3% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Matt Joyce | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.370 | 0.262 | 32.4% | 13.7% | 20.4% | 33.8% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Jed Lowrie | SWITCH | 0.352 | 0.370 | 0.181 | 36.7% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 26.8% | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Khris Davis | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.379 | 0.303 | 40.9% | 10.3% | 31.2% | 39.4% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Matt Olson | LEFT | 0.439 | 0.401 | 0.431 | 44.4% | 9.5% | 27.2% | 34.5% | 1B | $4,400 | 1B/OF | $5,400 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Ryon Healy | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.311 | 0.179 | 35.3% | 3.5% | 24.9% | 44.0% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/3B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Chad Pinder | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.318 | 0.250 | 34.2% | 3.6% | 31.6% | 42.3% | OF | $2,900 | OF/SS | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Matt Chapman | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.282 | 0.266 | 37.0% | 9.6% | 29.8% | 36.1% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Bruce Maxwell | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.316 | 0.120 | 38.3% | 12.9% | 25.3% | 45.8% | C | $2,600 | C | $2,600 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marcus Semien, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson
Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy, Chad Pinder
Stackability – GREEN
Detroit
The A’s are a great stack, the Tigers are a great stack, and this is a great spot to stack the game as a whole. In his 18 career starts, Daniel Mengden has allowed a .343+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. This season, he has really struggled with righties. Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos have both been swinging hot bats, Miguel Cabrera is dirt cheap, and you can fill out the stack around those three.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.310 | 0.131 | 35.2% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 35.2% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Jeimer Candelario | SWITCH | 0.365 | 0.329 | 0.183 | 27.3% | 12.2% | 19.5% | 41.8% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.377 | 0.150 | 43.3% | 9.1% | 20.7% | 40.0% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.350 | 0.183 | 42.7% | 6.3% | 23.3% | 36.4% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B/OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Efren Navarro | LEFT | 0.156 | 0.232 | 0.000 | 37.5% | 3.7% | 37.0% | 50.0% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B/OF | $2,400 | N/A | N/A |
6 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.307 | 0.123 | 39.7% | 6.5% | 27.2% | 38.7% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Mikie Mahtook | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.302 | 0.165 | 35.7% | 6.7% | 21.7% | 49.7% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
8 | JaCoby Jones | RIGHT | 0.236 | 0.222 | 0.080 | 27.9% | 8.3% | 38.1% | 57.1% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,500 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.264 | 0.126 | 28.9% | 4.4% | 14.4% | 51.9% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos
Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Alex Presley, James McCann
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Colorado at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET
Colorado | San Francisco | ||||||||||||||
Tyler Chatwood | Matt Moore | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
COL-122 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.356 | 0.330 | 28.9% | 14.1% | 19.8% | 58.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.449 | 0.418 | 34.3% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 38.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.321 | 0.324 | 29.7% | 11.1% | 18.6% | 56.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.320 | 0.327 | 35.2% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 37.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Tyler Chatwood | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 27 | 4.62 | 3.87 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 57.2% | 29.5% | 19.0% | |
2017 | 23 | 4.86 | 4.57 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 57.9% | 29.3% | 22.2% | |
L30 | 3 | 4.70 | 1.77 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 57.4% | 34.4% | 21.3% |
Chatwood hasn’t had a great season. In 23 starts, he has a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 13%. The command is a big issue for a pitcher with such a low strikeout rate. The good news is that he can afford to be more aggressive, as he gets to pitch in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. He has much better splits on the road throughout his career and he draws a favorable matchup against the Giants.
Quick Breakdown: Chatwood is my favorite SP2 on the board.
Matt Moore | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 33 | 4.39 | 4.08 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 38.2% | 30.8% | 15.3% | |
2017 | 29 | 4.82 | 5.39 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 37.6% | 35.0% | 15.9% | |
L30 | 4 | 4.94 | 4.50 | 16.7% | 7.4% | 40.0% | 39.2% | 13.9% |
Moore has a decent track record in this ballpark and we know that the Rockies struggle on the road. If I had to rank my favorite SP2s, I would go Chatwood, Moore, and then Urena. On the season, Moore has a 4.82 SIERA with a hard contact rate of 35%. The issue here is that the Rockies have owned him in the past. Their current roster has a .483 wOBA in 103 plate appearances against him.
Quick Breakdown: Moore is a viable SP2, but I prefer Chatwood here.
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
The Rockies have hit Matt Moore very well in the past. The players with the best BvP are Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and DJ LeMahieu. Batters from both sides of the plate are viable here, as Moore has given up a .418 xwOBA to lefties and a .327 xwOBA to righties this season. This isn’t a great ballpark, but the Rockies are intriguing tournament plays that should fly under the radar.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | DJ LeMahieu | RIGHT | 0.415 | 0.410 | 0.197 | 39.8% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 53.6% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Gerardo Parra | LEFT | 0.369 | 0.318 | 0.087 | 27.3% | 4.0% | 17.0% | 45.9% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Nolan Arenado | RIGHT | 0.536 | 0.442 | 0.438 | 37.2% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 24.8% | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $5,300 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Trevor Story | RIGHT | 0.453 | 0.360 | 0.405 | 52.1% | 12.1% | 32.6% | 28.8% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Ian Desmond | RIGHT | 0.267 | 0.259 | 0.090 | 25.0% | 4.7% | 23.3% | 66.7% | OF | $2,800 | 1B/OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Carlos Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.224 | 0.211 | 0.090 | 33.3% | 3.1% | 29.9% | 58.3% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Mark Reynolds | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.301 | 0.176 | 34.2% | 15.9% | 31.8% | 45.1% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Jonathan Lucroy | RIGHT | 0.245 | 0.298 | 0.084 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 60.5% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Tyler Chatwood | RIGHT | 0.163 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 18.8% | 50.0% | P | $6,800 | P | $8,100 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado
Secondary Plays – Gerardo Parra, Trevor Story
Stackability – YELLOW
San Francisco
The Giants have been an easy offense to avoid this season. They have little to no firepower in their lineup and they draw a fairly difficult matchup against Tyler Chatwood, who has an elite ground ball rate. Chatwood pitches well on the road and he has a good track record against the Giants. As usual, I will be avoiding the Giants in both cash games and tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hunter Pence | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.274 | 0.107 | 27.5% | 5.9% | 22.4% | 62.2% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Joe Panik | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.318 | 0.165 | 26.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 40.5% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Denard Span | LEFT | 0.337 | 0.333 | 0.186 | 27.7% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 41.5% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Buster Posey | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.349 | 0.108 | 29.9% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 46.7% | C | $2,700 | 1B/C | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Brandon Crawford | LEFT | 0.297 | 0.310 | 0.154 | 33.7% | 7.3% | 21.8% | 48.7% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,600 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Jarrett Parker | LEFT | 0.309 | 0.293 | 0.191 | 22.9% | 6.5% | 26.0% | 50.6% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Pablo Sandoval | SWITCH | 0.273 | 0.325 | 0.136 | 35.3% | 6.7% | 20.7% | 46.0% | 3B | $2,300 | 3B | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Ryder Jones | LEFT | 0.254 | 0.259 | 0.144 | 34.3% | 6.1% | 27.2% | 38.4% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B/3B | $2,100 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Matt Moore | LEFT | 0.127 | 0.132 | 0.000 | 10.7% | 2.3% | 34.1% | 68.2% | P | $6,500 | P | $6,400 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
Chris Sale | Wade Miley | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
BOS-180 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.246 | 0.264 | 17.3% | 4.8% | 30.2% | 43.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.286 | 0.327 | 32.9% | 13.6% | 21.8% | 60.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.256 | 0.243 | 30.8% | 5.2% | 37.0% | 37.7% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.372 | 0.360 | 31.5% | 12.0% | 18.8% | 49.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Sale | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $11,600 | Salary: | $13,200 | Salary: | $25,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 3.43 | 3.34 | 25.7% | 5.0% | 41.2% | 31.7% | 17.0% | |
2017 | 30 | 2.62 | 2.86 | 35.9% | 5.1% | 38.6% | 28.5% | 18.3% | |
L30 | 6 | 3.11 | 4.64 | 31.7% | 6.9% | 49.4% | 29.9% | 20.7% |
There are two elite arms taking the mound tonight and both are pitching on the road. Sale is obviously one of those two aces. In 30 starts this season, he has a 2.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36%. He throws a ton of strikes, which allows him to pitch deep into games. He has an excellent track record against the Orioles, even though they are better than most people realize against left-handed pitching (tenth in team wOBA).
Quick Breakdown: Sale is your 1A when it comes to pitching options tonight. We’ll get to the 1B later.
Wade Miley | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $5,100 | Salary: | $10,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 4.21 | 5.37 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 47.3% | 33.3% | 17.3% | |
2017 | 30 | 5.01 | 5.32 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 50.9% | 31.7% | 16.8% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.99 | 5.87 | 19.4% | 11.7% | 49.3% | 22.5% | 18.3% |
Miley is not a pitcher that I use in DFS, although I do love stacking against him. It worked out well in his last start against the Yankees, where they ended up scoring five hundred runs or so. Miley has a high SIERA, a below-average strikeout rate, and he walks a lot of batters. He struggles against batters from both sides of the plate and he has to face a low-strikeout Red Sox offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Miley in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox are an intriguing stack tonight in Baltimore. Their implied run total isn’t that high, which should keep their ownership down outside of Mookie Betts, who figures to be one of the most popular plays in the outfield. This is a good ballpark for home runs and Boston draws an exploitable matchup against Wade Miley, who has allowed a .360 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.397 | 0.394 | 0.123 | 31.4% | 18.1% | 11.1% | 40.0% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $8,000 |
2 | Chris Young | RIGHT | 0.261 | 0.283 | 0.074 | 24.4% | 12.7% | 15.5% | 37.2% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $4,300 | OF | $8,400 |
3 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.367 | 0.193 | 34.3% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 42.6% | OF | $4,500 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,800 |
4 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.351 | 0.219 | 36.6% | 14.3% | 22.3% | 39.4% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,500 |
5 | Sam Travis | RIGHT | 0.445 | 0.333 | 0.143 | 20.7% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 44.8% | 1B | $2,000 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
6 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.276 | 0.089 | 28.2% | 8.0% | 15.9% | 54.1% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,500 | SS | $8,800 |
7 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.505 | 0.373 | 0.238 | 37.9% | 10.6% | 27.7% | 55.2% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,000 |
8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.289 | 0.132 | 25.5% | 8.1% | 17.6% | 38.2% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,200 |
9 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.333 | 0.147 | 28.4% | 10.2% | 18.6% | 59.3% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez
Secondary Plays – Chris Young, Sam Travis, Xander Bogaerts
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Baltimore
The Orioles have hit left-handed pitching fairly well this season, but they have a high strikeout rate as a whole and have to face arguably the best strikeout pitcher in baseball. On the season, Chris Sale has a 35% k-rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.330 | 0.180 | 36.2% | 8.2% | 26.5% | 48.4% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |
2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.383 | 0.248 | 45.7% | 6.8% | 14.8% | 40.0% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,600 |
3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.411 | 0.384 | 0.314 | 39.4% | 9.0% | 23.7% | 42.3% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $6,600 |
4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.315 | 0.163 | 32.7% | 6.5% | 18.8% | 43.8% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,600 |
5 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.318 | 0.130 | 31.8% | 3.9% | 24.0% | 50.0% | OF | $3,400 | 1B/OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
6 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.285 | 0.188 | 30.8% | 5.5% | 21.2% | 43.9% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,100 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
7 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.296 | 0.308 | 0.129 | 34.3% | 10.5% | 40.1% | 34.2% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,000 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
8 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.414 | 0.385 | 0.239 | 42.4% | 4.3% | 24.7% | 33.3% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
9 | Austin Hays | RIGHT | 0.951 | 0.730 | 1.000 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $2,500 | CF | $4,800 |