The Relief Brief: Tuesday, September 27th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-28 02:24:32

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Tuesday night features a full slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Luis Cessa has seven starts on the season, and all seven starts have lasted somewhere between five and six innings. No more, no less. While that will eventually end, Cessa is a realistic bet for five to six innings tonight against the Red Sox. The Yankees bullpen has been strong, but they did have to work hard yesterday in Toronto and may not have all arms available tonight.

Matt Koch spent nearly all of 2016 as a minor league starter in which he regularly pitched six plus innings (21 starts), but has been used as a reliever for nearly all of September. Koch will be making his first big league start tonight, and is not likely to work deep into the game. This is an extremely appealing spot as we have a young starter making his starting debut pitching in front of one of the two worst ‘pens in baseball.

Ryan Vogelsong has five consecutive starts of five innings thrown or less. Yesterday, the Pirates bullpen had to work extremely hard, and that trend is likely to continue again tonight when they continue their series against the Cubs. The write-up here is similar to yesterday as we have a struggling starter pitching in front of a solid, but fatigued bullpen. One thing that could make this spot less attractive is the likelihood of Cubs resting regular bats, though that wasn’t a problem for them yesterday.

A.J. Griffin continued his up and (mostly) down season in his last start by going just 1.2 innings and allowing three earned runs. In his first five starts of the season, Griffin reached six innings on four different occasions. Since that time, Griffin has recorded six or more innings on just three occasions spanning 17 starts. So yeah, mostly down. We should see some more of this vulnerable bullpen tonight, though the Brewers aren’t always the most attractive team to utilize.

The Mariners are desperately clinging to post-season hopes as Felix Hernandez takes the hill tonight. Unfortunately, Felix has seen a shard decline from his former dominance over the last two seasons. While Hernandez has remained a fairly reliable source of innings, his xFIP is soaring at 4.45. I expect a strong outing from Felix here as he tries to keep his team in the hunt, but he may have a short leash as well. Despite season long dominance, the Seattle bullpen has faltered over the last month, especially with the long ball (1.47 HR/9).

Robert Stephenson has now allowed seven home runs through 29 major league innings pitched. Combine the long ball trouble with five out of six starts going for less than six innings, and this is another appealing spot. Oh, and we should also remember that this is the Cincinnati Reds bullpen that we’re talking about. It’s rarely a bad idea to take bats against this team, particularly when the starting pitcher is unlikely to work beyond five plus innings.

Paul Clemens had his longest start of the season in his last outing by going 5.2 innings against Arizona. That should give you a pretty good indication that Paul Clemens is not a likely candidate to work deep into tonight’s game either. The Padres bullpen owns the seventh worst SIERA in baseball this season and are going to be highly likely to put in the work tonight against the Dodgers, though LA may well rest a few bats with the division now in hand.

German Marquez won his first big league start last time out against the Cardinals as he went five innings and allowed just one earned run. Marquez started another 26 games across AA and AAA this season, with generally solid results. Unfortunately, Marquez has only made one start in the last three plus weeks and is perhaps a step back in stamina. I’d be surprised if he surpasses five innings tonight, and this Rockies bullpen has the highest ERA in the league and is bottom ten in most statistical categories including xFIP, HR/9 and WHIP.

Favorite bullpens to pick on today.

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Nationals activated Sammy Solis from the 15-Day DL. Solis had been impressive and imposing as a lefty out of the ‘pen and should help the Nats down the final two weeks of the regular season and potentially beyond.

3. Other Notes And Insights

With baseball season winding down, I just wanted to thank all of you for reading! I hope this article has helped you over the last two months of the season. As always, I am happy to hear your thoughts, ideas and input for this article.

Follow me on Twitter @collinman005 for occasional humor and advice.

Legend