The Relief Brief: Wednesday, September 21st

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-22 02:13:03

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Wednesday night features a 12 game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

If you’ve been keeping up with this article for long, by now you know that Clay Buchholz is a fixture here in The Relief Brief as well as the butt-end of some of my jokes. Since July, Clay has made seven starts and 11 relief appearances. While the wide perception is that he has improved overall, the reality is that the improvement is very slight, if at all. Since July, Clay owns a 5.36 xFIP with a deceptively low 4.14 ERA. The home runs are down, but the hard contact is still at 36.7% over that stretch. I still see little reason to be optimistic about his ability to put up consistently reliable starts over the final weeks of the season. Because of all this, I anticipate that the Red Sox ‘pen may have to put up more than three full innings tonight. Clay can be targeted, but this Red Sox bullpen is fresh and has been excellent over the last 30 days with a 3.21 SIERA.

While Bartolo Colon has an xFIP that sits more than a whole run higher than his ERA, the fact remains that Colon has been a reliable source of innings for the Mets this season. In his last nine starts, Colon has reached six or more innings in eight of those outings. The Mets had to use six different relievers last night, and will be at least a bit fatigued tonight. Expect Colon to be given a slightly extended leash in hopes of sparing the bullpen from another long evening. However, even if Colon struggles, the Mets ‘pen is still an above average group even at less that full strength.

Alex Cobb is a guy that I am genuinely happy for. Cobb has now made three starts since a nearly two-year absence and rehabilitation process (from Tommy John surgery), and has pitched above expectation for a guy in his position. What I really like to see is that he’s been able to eat up innings by going 5.0 in his first outing, 6.0 in his second and 6.2 in his third. Eddie Gamboa and Brad Boxberger put in a lot of work last night, and will likely be unavailable tonight. That means that Cobb may be called upon to get through a minimum of six innings again tonight. The Rays have been mediocre as a bullpen unit overall, but they have struggled mightily over the last 30 days. The ballpark and the starting pitcher take away some of the appeal here, but there is still some intrigue.

Nary a day goes by when I don’t write up the Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher and bullpen. Today, Robert Stephenson takes the hill for the Reds. Through five starts this season, Stephenson has accumulated a total of 25.1 innings (just over five innings per start). On top of the short outings, Stephenson has given up a lot of walks and dongs. We can safely expect him to struggle tonight against the Cubs, which could mean another long day for the bullpen. The Reds used three different relievers to throw over 25 or more pitches each last night, which means that the worst bullpen in baseball is also coming into this game at less than “full strength.”

“(player-popup)Derek Holland”:/players/derek-holland-11037’s last three box scores combine to look like this – 15.2 innings, 11 earned runs, four home runs, seven walks, and 11 strikeouts. Needless to say, those numbers are far from encouraging. Once again, it is expected to be hot and humid in Arlington tonight, which means even more offensive appeal (thanks Kevin Roth). I’m expecting somewhere around five-six innings of work from Holland tonight before handing the ball over to his bullpen, which owns the sixth worst bullpen SIERA, and the sixth worst HR/9 in baseball.

Jered Weaver has given up 13 dongs in his last eight starts to go along with 36 dongs on the season. Weaver consistently racks up five to six innings of work in each outing with only five outings going for seven or more innings in 2016. With the environment and opposition being what it is, I don’t expect this to be one of Weaver’s better outings tonight. The Angels ‘pen can be expected to see some work tonight, and this is another bullpen that worked hard yesterday. In fact, the Angels ‘pen has been used and abused at a high level across the last week, and particularly the last three days (see table below). The Angels’ bullpen also owns a 1.33 HR/9 rate across the last 30 days to go along with a 4.35 ERA.

Chad Kuhl has exactly one outing out of 11 in which he has exceeded six innings. However, Kuhl has hit exactly six innings in six of those eleven outings. The Pirates used five different relievers last night and will be looking to rest some of those arms tonight. I expect Kuhl to have a slightly longer leash than usual with the hopes of reaching or exceeding six innings tonight. Over the last 30 days, the Pirates ‘pen has given up a 1.40 HR/9 number, but they do own a strong SIERA of 3.58.

In his last 11 starts, Kenta Maeda has exceeded six innings just twice (6.1 innings on both occasions) and has pitched five or less innings on five occasions. Maeda has managed to avoid implosion all season long, and he’s been a good source of quality starts, but he also rarely goes beyond six innings (nine times in 29 starts). This is especially important today because of how hard the Dodgers ‘pen worked last night as they burned through five different arms. The LAD ‘pen is elite and has been all season long, but they’ve also been worked hard lately. If Maeda does struggle tonight against the desperate Giants, this could be a sneaky spot to attack.

Favorite bullpens to pick on today.

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Texas Rangers

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

Once again, no substantial news in this department.

3. Other Notes And Insights

Among qualified pitchers, Bartolo Colon owns the 15th best ERA in baseball at 3.14. Among qualified starting pitchers, Colon owns the 48th best xFIP at 4.21.
Bartolo Colon was an All-Star this year.

Among qualified pitchers, Rick Porcello owns the 12th best ERA in baseball at 3.08.
Among qualified starting pitchers, Porcello owns the 31st best xFIP at 3.89.
Rick Porcello is a serious contender for the AL Cy Young award.

Sheesh.

Follow me on Twitter @collinman005 for occasional attempts at humor and advice.

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