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MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-22 01:40:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

St. Louis Chicago Cubs
Article Image Carlos Martinez Article Image Jake Arrieta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-150 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.330 35.1% 11.6% 20.1% 51.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.326 29.3% 12.5% 24.2% 47.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.237 0.238 25.7% 5.8% 27.0% 56.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.264 0.273 24.1% 6.2% 22.8% 52.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $9,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.97 3.04 21.5% 8.7% 56.4% 29.6% 19.1%
2017 19 3.86 3.36 26.4% 9.1% 48.9% 32.7% 18.7%
L30 5 4.75 4.97 20.3% 10.2% 43.5% 33.3% 12.6%

We have a single day game on the schedule today. If you are only playing the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the Astros/Orioles game. The Cardinals and Cubs are both still fighting for the Central Division and this series could prove pivotal. Martinez will be on the mound for St. Louis. While his numbers on the season are solid, he has been in bad form over his last five starts – 4.75 SIERA with a 10% walk rate. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense has finally found some rhythm, which doesn’t bode well for Martinez.

Quick Breakdown: Seeing as how this game is only featured in the all-day slate, we can find better options in the later games.

Jake Arrieta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $7,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.94 3.10 23.9% 9.6% 52.6% 25.2% 22.9%
2017 19 4.15 4.17 22.7% 8.2% 46.5% 28.2% 21.8%
L30 5 5.12 2.97 15.0% 10.2% 52.7% 18.3% 23.7%

Arrieta is a pitcher that I rarely get right. Over his last five starts, he has an ERA under 5.00, but there have been some red flags. During that stretch, he has a 5.12 SIERA with a walk rate (10%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (15%). The Cardinals may not have a lot of left-handed hitters to throw at Arrieta, but they are still ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I prefer Arrieta over Carlos Martinez in this game, but don’t see either as a viable option in the all-day slate.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta will have the platoon advantage in this matchup, but is an easy fade given his recent form.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

There are times when I like the one early game so much that I end up playing the all-day slate in order to get exposure to it. This is not one of those times. This game has very little fantasy appeal as a whole and that includes both the hitters and the pitchers. Over the last two seasons, Jake Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .330 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Matt Carpenter is always a viable one-off target against right-handed pitching (.403 xwOBA), but the rest of the lineup can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.377 0.403 0.229 44.6% 16.6% 18.3% 23.7% 2B $3,600 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.370 0.357 0.182 37.7% 9.3% 25.0% 54.6% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.347 0.359 0.241 34.8% 12.0% 21.4% 39.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.356 0.334 0.201 30.8% 9.6% 23.8% 41.9% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.288 0.307 0.126 34.6% 4.6% 15.2% 46.2% C $2,800 C $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.339 0.330 0.268 39.1% 0.8% 31.8% 31.0% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.353 0.329 0.150 24.2% 8.1% 13.1% 49.1% 2B $2,400 2B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.368 0.258 0.000 9.7% 7.7% 12.8% 56.7% OF $2,400 OF $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.092 0.154 0.000 13.0% 0.0% 22.6% 70.6% P $8,900 P $9,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have won six games in a row and are now one back of the Brewers in the Central Division. They will try to keep it rolling today against Carlos Martinez and the Cardinals in an important game for both teams. I typically don’t like picking on pitchers with above-average strikeout and ground ball rates, but Martinez has really struggled in his last five starts. He has historically been a lot worse against lefties and Anthony Rizzo has a decent track record against him: 8-for-30 with three home runs and five walks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.320 0.336 0.160 35.6% 11.6% 13.1% 53.7% OF $2,800 2B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.374 0.320 0.238 29.3% 12.1% 21.0% 37.8% 3B $3,600 3B $5,000 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.358 0.390 0.230 31.6% 13.6% 12.6% 36.9% 1B $4,000 1B $5,200 N/A N/A
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.334 0.290 0.203 34.9% 6.4% 29.4% 50.4% C $3,100 C $4,100 N/A N/A
5 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.360 0.344 0.294 33.7% 9.4% 29.2% 40.8% OF $3,100 2B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.314 0.363 0.253 33.8% 12.4% 27.1% 40.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.322 0.331 0.144 27.4% 8.6% 11.8% 47.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.305 0.279 0.188 30.8% 5.0% 22.2% 41.5% SS $2,500 SS $3,800 N/A N/A
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.151 0.126 0.143 22.2% 0.0% 50.0% 47.1% P $9,200 P $7,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Houston Baltimore
Article Image Mike Fiers Article Image Ubaldo Jimenez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-128 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.308 32.1% 6.6% 19.7% 45.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.398 0.334 31.8% 11.7% 21.7% 43.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.359 0.345 34.6% 7.1% 20.6% 42.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.331 32.8% 10.7% 17.4% 50.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.26 4.48 18.5% 5.8% 42.2% 35.3% 17.2%
2017 18 4.22 3.75 23.0% 8.7% 46.8% 29.7% 20.5%
L30 5 3.63 3.14 31.0% 10.3% 39.1% 32.8% 25.0%

All right, now we get into the main slate. The first game on the schedule has one of the highest over/unders in the entire slate. The Astros are small favorites on the road, but it’s hard to get excited about any pitcher in a game that features a total of 11.0 runs. The recent form of Fiers has been encouraging and his numbers on the season are solid as well – 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. While he’s not the worst play on the board, he’s not on my radar. The Orioles have a talented offense and are coming off of four straight wins.

Quick Breakdown: Fiers has been in good form recently, but he’s a tough sell on the road in what is expected to be a shootout.

Ubaldo Jimenez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 14 4.96 7.01 18.7% 10.9% 44.9% 34.7% 16.6%
L30 5 5.17 9.00 18.4% 11.4% 43.6% 36.7% 16.5%

Jimenez does everything well that we’d like to see, at least when you look at it from a matchup standpoint. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, he doesn’t hold runners well, and a high hard contact rate. He is the perfect pitcher to stack against. We can load up on the Astros’ offense tonight and should obviously be avoiding Jimenez in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Jimenez should not be on your radar. If he is, you may want to visit RotoAcademy.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros may miss Carlos Correa, but they still have one of the best offenses in baseball without him. As mentioned above, stacking against Ubaldo Jimenez is one of my favorite pastimes in DFS. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .331+ xwOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He also has a high walk rate and is the worst pitcher in the slate at holding runners. When you get a good offense that can steal bases and hit home runs, we have the perfect recipe for a stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.391 0.375 0.273 39.0% 9.1% 22.1% 50.0% OF $4,200 OF $5,100 RF $9,900
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.410 0.348 0.195 27.9% 8.8% 12.3% 49.6% 2B $4,100 2B $5,100 2B $10,000
3 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.373 0.347 0.226 35.0% 7.9% 13.1% 32.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
4 Brian McCann LEFT 0.311 0.322 0.152 34.8% 8.5% 16.4% 44.1% C $2,700 C $3,700 C $7,200
5 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.317 0.284 0.206 33.0% 8.0% 19.1% 45.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.362 0.339 0.205 37.2% 1.7% 10.3% 41.9% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.420 0.326 0.271 33.3% 10.8% 20.6% 43.6% SS $3,500 3B/OF $4,400 1B $8,400
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.303 0.332 0.141 31.4% 9.4% 17.2% 42.2% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
9 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.300 0.278 0.088 18.0% 7.4% 13.0% 57.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 LF $6,600

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Even though Mike Fiers has been in great form over the last month of play, this is a sneaky spot to stack the Orioles. Fiers is a reverse-splits pitcher and he is facing a right-handed heavy lineup that has a few reverse-splits hitters. The season long numbers aren’t great for the Orioles’ offense, but seven of their projected starters have an ISO of at least .180 against right-handed pitching. For cash games, there aren’t any options that really stand out here, but I will have an Orioles’ stack or two in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.327 0.311 0.186 29.3% 4.0% 17.5% 45.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.314 0.343 0.197 36.0% 9.2% 19.8% 41.7% 3B $3,600 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.363 0.309 0.215 31.2% 4.0% 20.7% 40.2% 2B $3,300 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.327 0.327 0.282 43.2% 12.4% 38.2% 33.0% 1B $3,300 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.325 0.341 0.181 30.9% 9.2% 20.9% 42.6% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.408 0.346 0.259 34.6% 6.9% 25.1% 52.9% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,600
7 Seth Smith LEFT 0.332 0.347 0.190 35.2% 7.7% 22.3% 42.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.304 0.317 0.172 32.7% 6.2% 25.5% 41.8% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.279 0.320 0.053 24.0% 6.3% 12.5% 40.8% SS $2,400 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Philadelphia
Article Image Matt Garza Article Image Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-140 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.343 35.8% 9.6% 12.0% 47.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.309 32.8% 9.7% 21.4% 50.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.292 33.1% 5.4% 18.8% 53.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.268 27.8% 4.0% 28.0% 53.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Garza
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.60 4.51 15.2% 7.8% 54.8% 34.9% 19.0%
2017 14 4.84 3.84 16.1% 6.8% 44.4% 33.7% 16.9%
L30 4 5.21 2.42 12.8% 6.4% 45.2% 29.0% 27.6%

Garza has an ERA under 4.00 on the season, but his advanced stats suggest that it could be unsustainable moving forward. His SIERA is a full run higher. It’s hard for a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to have success over the long run. The good news for Garza is that he draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies. The bad news is that he has to face them in Citizens Bank Park. The only time to ever consider Garza is when he is facing a right-handed heavy lineup and it looks like the Phillies will roll out six or seven lefties in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Unless we see a right-handed heavy Phillies’ lineup (which we won’t), Garza can be avoided in all formats.

Aaron Nola
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 14 3.84 3.54 24.7% 7.6% 48.1% 32.1% 22.5%
L30 5 3.45 1.78 29.3% 7.9% 45.5% 37.5% 21.6%

I’ve been waiting for a good matchup for Nola and it finally has arrived. I’m a big fan of his game, as he does everything well. He has a low SIERA (3.84), a high strikeout rate (25%), and an above-average ground ball rate (48%). He comes into tonight’s start in great form over the last month of play and he draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers, who have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Granted, this isn’t a great ballpark for pitchers, but Nola should be able to keep the ball on the ground. Seven of the projected nine starters for Milwaukee have an above-average ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is cheap, he’s in good form, and he draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers. He’s one of the top plays in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have been struggling offensively over the last couple weeks and are in danger of losing their lead in the Central Division. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Aaron Nola, who has an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. In the last two seasons, Nola has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. The Brewers are an easy fade in tonight’s full slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.283 0.276 0.129 37.1% 7.5% 29.8% 55.1% 2B $2,800 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.398 0.355 0.302 43.1% 16.7% 26.3% 40.0% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,000 1B $7,600
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.333 0.322 0.262 40.5% 9.0% 24.6% 48.3% OF $4,100 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.408 0.373 0.289 39.9% 9.6% 20.4% 45.7% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.377 0.330 0.206 34.4% 12.2% 28.8% 47.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.334 0.288 0.181 28.1% 6.6% 17.2% 38.1% C $2,600 C $3,000 C $6,000
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.306 0.289 0.199 33.6% 7.7% 38.2% 43.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.316 0.278 0.145 27.1% 4.6% 17.9% 50.7% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Matt Garza RIGHT 0.080 0.119 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 23.8% 92.3% P $6,800 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

Matt Garza is not a pitcher that we want to target right-handed hitters against. In the last two seasons, he has held righties to a .292 xwOBA with a 54% ground ball rate. He has really struggled against left-handed hitters though, allowing a .343 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate during that same time period. The Phillies are extremely cheap and they have a relatively high implied run total. There aren’t any elite plays in this lineup, but there are some nice values that can help fill out your rosters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.330 0.301 0.093 19.7% 8.9% 21.5% 47.7% 2B $3,000 2B $3,300 2B $6,600
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.317 0.297 0.181 30.9% 8.0% 18.9% 37.6% SS $2,900 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.354 0.336 0.220 47.4% 5.4% 25.0% 47.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.288 0.322 0.157 27.7% 6.9% 13.4% 47.7% 3B $3,400 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
5 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.402 0.378 0.131 34.8% 12.0% 15.2% 41.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.314 0.314 0.162 39.3% 6.3% 22.8% 46.6% 1B $3,000 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
7 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.295 0.286 0.152 29.8% 5.6% 23.7% 44.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.347 0.329 0.139 37.2% 14.7% 24.8% 60.3% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.099 0.159 0.000 0.0% 14.3% 38.1% 77.8% P $9,100 P $8,400 P $16,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams, Daniel Nava

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Miami Cincinnati
Article Image Jose Urena Article Image Homer Bailey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-115 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.353 31.8% 7.6% 10.2% 38.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.410 0.371 43.1% 10.5% 19.1% 47.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.324 33.2% 8.8% 21.0% 49.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.400 0.338 19.5% 6.1% 20.9% 45.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Urena
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.66 6.13 15.6% 7.8% 47.7% 32.5% 21.4%
2017 14 5.14 3.93 15.9% 8.6% 39.3% 32.4% 19.2%
L30 5 4.96 4.68 18.4% 8.3% 35.1% 35.4% 17.7%

I have yet to roster Urena this season and that’s not going to change in a matchup against the Reds in Great American Ballpark. Urena has a low strikeout rate (16%) and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. That doesn’t bode well for this matchup or for this ballpark. He offers more downside than upside tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Urena is an easy fade in all formats.

Homer Bailey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 3.55 6.65 24.3% 6.3% 45.2% 30.7% 16.0%
2017 5 5.11 10.13 15.6% 10.1% 46.8% 30.4% 13.9%
L30 5 5.11 10.13 15.6% 10.1% 46.8% 30.4% 13.9%

Bailey may not be as bad as his 10+ ERA suggests, but he has been an easy fade this season. His SIERA is over 5.00, his strikeout rate is low, and he is giving up a ton of home runs. He has also struggled to hold runners. No matter how you slice it, Bailey has been bad this season. He is an easy fade tonight against the Marlins in this home run-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Bailey should be avoided in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Wth these two pitchers on the mound and with the over/under set at double-digit runs, this is one of the best games to target for hitters. Both sides are littered with viable plays. We start with the Marlins, who get to face the Homer Bailey. In only five starts this season, Bailey has allowed six home runs and four stolen bases. Miami has a nice mix of speed and power, which bodes well for their upside tonight. They also see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Great American Ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.312 0.270 0.071 18.5% 5.2% 13.1% 56.9% 2B $2,900 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.387 0.371 0.299 37.2% 9.7% 25.6% 42.9% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.342 0.349 0.129 37.4% 11.4% 19.1% 57.4% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.395 0.377 0.271 44.8% 7.6% 22.7% 45.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.364 0.392 0.254 44.8% 11.0% 20.9% 40.1% 1B $3,300 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.318 0.320 0.122 29.4% 5.9% 16.1% 51.3% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,300
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.276 0.285 0.126 37.2% 6.0% 19.6% 50.7% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
8 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.280 0.278 0.144 32.9% 4.5% 18.4% 38.4% 3B $2,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.046 0.126 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 34.8% 40.0% P $6,700 P $5,000 P $10,000

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds are another great stacking option tonight in a slate that is loaded with options. There are currently five teams with higher implied run totals than Cincinnati, so we could end up seeing a very high scoring night in DFS. Jose Urena is a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .353 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .324 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.301 0.263 0.083 16.4% 9.2% 20.1% 45.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.387 0.313 0.234 29.0% 12.9% 17.6% 40.7% SS $3,300 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.424 0.429 0.283 35.2% 17.2% 10.6% 34.7% 1B $3,900 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.338 0.295 0.241 34.5% 5.5% 27.3% 31.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.427 0.349 0.313 41.0% 6.6% 21.7% 42.0% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $3,700 2B $7,200
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.332 0.343 0.182 29.3% 11.2% 23.5% 44.8% 3B $2,800 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.335 0.364 0.261 40.0% 10.1% 23.0% 44.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.318 0.330 0.123 34.8% 7.7% 14.8% 41.9% C $2,200 C $2,300 C $4,400
9 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.000 0.080 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 100.0% P $6,200 P $5,600 P $11,200

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Oakland NY Mets
Article Image Paul Blackburn Article Image Steven Matz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-165 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.256 0.337 25.7% 9.3% 9.3% 54.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.263 21.4% 5.8% 19.2% 64.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.272 25.0% 5.7% 11.4% 53.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.297 33.8% 5.9% 22.3% 44.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Paul Blackburn
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,500
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 5.43 1.83 10.3% 7.7% 54.0% 25.4% 19.1%
L30 3 5.44 1.83 10.3% 7.7% 54.0% 25.4% 19.1%

Blackburn has made three starts this season. While his ERA is under 2.00 at the moment, it’s not sustainable. His SIERA of 5.43 is a better representation of what we can expect moving forward. When it comes to inexperienced pitchers, I like to rely on Vegas. Blackburn and the A’s are listed as big underdogs tonight against the Mets on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Blackburn is an easy fade in all formats.

Steven Matz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 3.51 3.40 23.6% 5.7% 51.1% 30.4% 21.7%
2017 7 4.96 4.58 14.9% 6.6% 45.4% 31.8% 21.2%
L30 5 4.97 5.33 17.0% 8.9% 47.6% 30.1% 25.3%

Matz was hammered by the Rockies in his last start. The worst part was that the game wasn’t in Colorado, it was in New York. He just hasn’t been able to find any consistency this season and that’s evident if you pull up his game log. Even at his discounted price point, people will be hesitant to click his name after he let so many down in his last start. I don’t see him as a great cash game play, but I certainly have some serious interest in tournaments. He draws a terrific matchup at home against the A’s, who are ranked 28th in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: This may be from a lack of sleep (watching the Open Championship), but Matz is one of my favorite GPP plays in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s have struggled against left-handed pitching all season and face a talented one in a pitcher’s park. We know that Steven Matz can struggle with consistency at times, but there are too many good matchups in this slate to get carried away with the A’s offense. Khris Davis is the one batter on my radar here. The difference between his wOBA (.300) and xwOBA (.391) against southpaws is massive this season, which suggests some positive regression moving forward.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.253 0.248 0.078 20.0% 9.9% 19.7% 46.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.269 0.252 0.053 30.8% 20.8% 25.0% 46.2% SS $2,300 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
3 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.424 0.351 0.313 34.7% 3.0% 22.7% 36.7% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $2,600 3B $5,200
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.300 0.391 0.169 54.1% 17.8% 31.5% 43.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
5 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.284 0.288 0.118 30.6% 8.1% 25.7% 36.7% 2B $2,800 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.112 0.185 0.000 40.0% 7.1% 57.1% 20.0% 3B $2,200 3B $2,000 3B $3,900
7 Josh Phegley RIGHT 0.265 0.288 0.173 31.0% 0.0% 19.2% 33.3% C $2,200 C $2,100 C $4,000
8 Jaycob Brugman LEFT 0.112 0.158 0.000 12.5% 7.1% 35.7% 57.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,000 CF $3,900
9 Paul Blackburn RIGHT P $6,900 P $5,300 P $10,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Paul Blackburn had a low strikeout rate in the minors and through three major league starts, we’ve seen much of the same. He doesn’t offer much in terms of upside, but he has had an elite ground ball rate at every level. The Mets have a high implied run total tonight, but I’m always a little hesitant to stack against pitchers with such high ground ball rates. The good news is that the Mets have one of the highest fly-ball rates of any offense when facing a right-handed pitcher. I’m not sure a Mets’ stack is viable here, but Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and Lucas Duda are all great one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.407 0.389 0.277 42.0% 14.7% 22.7% 37.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 LF $8,700
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.318 0.357 0.171 34.6% 11.2% 14.4% 45.5% 2B $3,100 2B/SS $4,000 SS $7,600
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.392 0.377 0.299 44.3% 9.9% 21.6% 33.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
4 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.328 0.329 0.157 41.1% 7.2% 15.1% 38.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.393 0.402 0.303 44.3% 15.1% 22.2% 26.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
6 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.338 0.301 0.151 29.8% 3.8% 10.7% 37.7% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.285 0.284 0.159 27.1% 7.0% 12.2% 36.9% SS $2,800 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.253 0.285 0.164 34.5% 5.3% 16.7% 39.7% C $2,700 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Steven Matz LEFT 0.110 0.201 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 22.2% 33.3% P $7,700 P $7,100 P $14,000

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP), Lucas Duda (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (Cash), Jay Bruce (Cash), Lucas Duda (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious