MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-04 02:05:49

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Miami at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Miami					Washington
			Edinson Volquez					Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -220					7.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.346	33.6%	10.1%	16.1%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.269	25.9%	8.6%	31.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.341	29.6%	7.6%	16.5%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.285	27.2%	6.2%	29.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Edinson Volquez
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$6,000		Salary:			$6,500
	Salary Rank:			16 of 18		Salary Rank:			15 of 18
	2016	34	4.72	5.37	16.3%	8.9%	8.5%	51.2%	29.0%	31.7%

In the past, I’ve spent a lot of time breaking down mediocre pitching options. While I still want to give every pitcher in every slate their due, I will try to keep the analysis to a minimum on pitchers that have little to no fantasy appeal. One of those pitchers in this slate is Edinson Volquez, who has little strikeout upside and massive downside. There are very few times when we should actually consider a pitcher with such a low strikeout rate and on the road against a capable offense isn’t one of them.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$9,700		Salary:			$9,900
	Salary Rank:			5 of 18		Salary Rank:			4 of 18
	2016	24	3.18	3.60	30.6%	7.4%	11.0%	39.5%	39.2%	26.6%

In general, we like to pay up for pitchers because they are more consistent than hitters, especially the elite arms. However, if you have rostered Stephen Strasburg more than a handful of times, you know he is capable of a bad outing that can single-handedly ruin your lineups. He is also capable of dominating an opposing lineup en route to a double-digit strikeout performance. With Strasburg, we get the elite upside and without having to pay a massive premium. Nationals Park is a great place for pitchers and Strasburg has an excellent track record at home throughout his career. If he can pitch around Giancarlo Stanton, he should have no problem dominating this Marlins’ offense.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The first full slate of the baseball season is usually tough on hitters. Every team has it’s ace on the mound, which usually makes it tough to roster a lineup full of hitters that we feel good about. However, there are a number of pitchers in this slate that we can attack. My point is that we don’t need to target hitters against elite pitchers. Stephen Strasburg is tough on both left and right-handed hitters and owns an elite strikeout rate. If you want to play the BvP angle, Giancarlo Stanton does have ten extra-base hits against Strasburg in 38 career at-bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.286	0.075	17.5%	5.6%	15.7%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200
2	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.348	0.123	30.9%	5.4%	17.0%	C	$2,100	C	$3,500
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.386	0.215	41.7%	12.7%	19.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.331	0.237	39.4%	9.5%	30.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.315	0.154	34.2%	7.5%	19.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.356	0.228	36.4%	13.1%	15.1%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,200
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.370	0.157	29.3%	8.8%	20.0%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,100
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.258	0.071	30.4%	5.4%	11.7%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,600
9	Edinson Volquez	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	60.0%	P	$6,000	P	$6,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals draw one of the best matchups in the slate, so it’s no surprise that they also have one of the highest implied run totals. Edinson Volquez allowed a .340+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters last season and owns one of the lowest strikeout rates (16.3%) of any pitcher taking the mound today. Volquez really struggles against lefties in particular, making Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy the best plays at their respective positions. Murphy had an incredible 41.1% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching last season. Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, and Anthony Rendon round out a very playable stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.413	0.258	33.5%	4.6%	17.8%	SS	$3,700	OF/SS	$4,900
2	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.350	0.166	31.9%	8.5%	17.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.352	0.192	35.0%	18.7%	15.4%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,100
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.419	0.261	41.1%	6.4%	9.5%	2B	$3,500	2B/3B	$4,500
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.273	0.140	33.2%	4.9%	24.2%	1B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,400
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.296	0.136	32.7%	11.4%	24.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
7	Stephen Drew	LEFT	0.378	0.283	42.6%	10.1%	20.3%	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,800
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.315	0.182	32.6%	6.0%	17.5%	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.180	0.027	11.1%	4.4%	15.6%	P	$9,700	P	$9,900

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at NY Mets – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Atlanta					NY Mets
			Julio Teheran					Noah Syndergaard
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -165					6.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.325	33.5%	8.3%	15.5%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.309	31.3%	8.5%	28.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.243	32.7%	2.9%	27.6%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.252	25.6%	3.6%	30.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$7,900		Salary:			$8,300
	Salary Rank:			12 of 18		Salary Rank:			8 of 18
	2016	30	3.93	3.21	22.0%	5.4%	10.3%	39.1%	41.9%	33.1%

Home and away splits can often be more noise than signal, but it’s hard to ignore the numbers that Julio Teheran has had in his career. His SIERA is nearly a full run lower and his strikeout rate is 5% at higher at home than it is on the road. In a slate where every team is throwing out their best pitcher, it’s not difficult to find options with a higher floor and a higher ceiling than Teheran. His struggles against left-handed hitters could be on full display in a matchup against the Mets.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Noah Syndergaard
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$11,100		Salary:			$11,600
	Salary Rank:			2 of 18		Salary Rank:			2 of 18
	2016	30	2.95	2.60	29.3%	5.8%	14.2%	51.2%	27.2%	28.1%

If Clayton Kershaw wasn’t in this slate, Noah Syndergaard would be uber chalky. Even with Kershaw taking the mound, Syndergaard will likely end up being the second highest owned pitcher. Try as you might, good luck finding a reason why you shouldn’t be playing Noah. Now, if I’m choosing between he and Kershaw, I’m going with the latter, but both are truly elite plays. Syndergaard finished the 2016 season with a 2.96 SIERA, a strikeout rate of 29.3%, a walk rate of 5.8%, and a ground ball rate of 51.2%. Basically, he strikes a lot of hitters out, he doesn’t give many free base passes, he pitches in a favorable ballpark, and he produces a ton of ground balls. He also gets to face a Braves’ offense that lacks some serious power. The only knock on Syndergaard is that he doesn’t hold runners well. He gave up the highest stolen base per inning rate of any starting pitcher in baseball last season. That’s not a big enough concern here though, as Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson are really the only Braves’ hitters that have speed.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

There is a good explanation as to why the Braves have the second lowest implied run total in the slate. They are facing a superhero in Thor (Noah Syndergaard), they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and their offense isn’t very good to begin with. If you want to get cute in a large field tournament, you can target Ender Inciarte or Dansby Swanson for their stolen base upside. As I mentioned above, Syndergaard is right up there with Jon Lester as the worst pitcher in baseball at holding runners. We certainly shouldn’t be looking to target any of these power hitters, as Syndergaard has an elite ground ball and strikeout rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.315	0.099	25.7%	8.4%	12.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400
2	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.321	0.107	34.9%	8.7%	23.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,000
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.410	0.293	43.3%	14.6%	22.9%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,900
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.319	0.211	36.4%	5.3%	24.1%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.341	0.156	33.1%	11.8%	15.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200
6	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.327	0.128	28.2%	3.1%	11.6%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,100
7	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.300	0.145	29.8%	3.2%	17.3%	3B	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,000
8	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.339	0.154	46.1%	7.5%	29.4%	C	$2,400	C	$2,600
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.176	0.024	13.9%	0.0%	28.0%	P	$7,900	P	$8,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Even though Citi Field isn’t what we would call a hitter’s paradise, there are some excellent plays in their lineup. I’ve already touched on Julio Teheran struggles on the road and against left-handed hitters. In 2016, he gave up a .325 wOBA and a 33.5% hard contact rate to lefties. His strikeout rate also dipped 12% when facing a left-handed hitter. The Mets’ offense will get overlooked because their implied run total isn’t as high as some of the other teams on the schedule, but I’m willing to play most of the left-handed batters in this lineup, especially in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.288	0.132	26.2%	7.2%	18.9%	3B	$2,700	3B/SS	$4,000
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.342	0.208	35.8%	6.5%	18.5%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,500
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.352	0.244	37.4%	7.3%	20.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200
4	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.349	0.238	37.3%	13.1%	19.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
5	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.329	0.167	34.3%	9.2%	20.1%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,600
6	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.361	0.283	40.2%	8.6%	20.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
7	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.328	0.195	37.1%	9.3%	20.0%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,400
8	Rene Rivera	RIGHT	0.241	0.100	29.1%	5.5%	26.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,200
9	Noah Syndergaard	RIGHT	0.323	0.250	41.7%	10.7%	46.4%	P	$11,100	P	$11,600

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Jay Bruce, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lucas Duda, Neil Walker

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Boston – 2:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Pittsburgh					Boston
			Gerrit Cole					Rick Porcello
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -160					9.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.371	35.6%	7.6%	23.1%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.261	32.1%	3.7%	21.4%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.285	25.6%	6.7%	16.0%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.289	27.9%	3.5%	21.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$8,700		Salary:			$7,400
	Salary Rank:			7 of 18		Salary Rank:			10 of 18
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	8.5%	45.6%	29.0%	30.1%

Gerrit Cole was once an elite prospect with an incredibly bright future. While he is still an above-average major league pitcher, the results haven’t been as good as he or the Pirates’ have hoped for. If you look at his numbers, he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses on the surface. He finished the 2016 season with a 3.88 SIERA, a strikeout rate of 19.4%, and a walk rate of 7.1%. He struggled to stay healthy last season though, so perhaps his 2015 numbers are a better assessment of his talent. Either way, I’ve been burned by him enough times that I will be taking a wait and see approach to start the season. He opens the year in a ballpark that no opposing pitcher likes to visit – Fenway Park. The Red Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball and they love to drive up pitch counts.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$9,800		Salary:			$8,800
	Salary Rank:			4 of 18		Salary Rank:			5 of 18
	2016	33	3.78	3.15	21.2%	3.6%	8.2%	43.1%	38.0%	30.0%

I’m still a little baffled by the fact that Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young last season. It’s not even that I was surprised by who won, it’s that he won the award after very few people talked about him all season (at least not in our tight-knit DFS circles). Fenway Park is generally a good place to avoid pitchers in DFS and I’m not thrilled about the idea of rostering Porcello in the first big slate of the season. He has a league-average strikeout rate and is facing a Pirates’ offense that can hold their own against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Even though Rick Porcello isn’t all that intriguing from the pitching side, there is little to like from the Pirates’ offense. Porcello strikes out a good number of hitters, he rarely gives up any walks, and he held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA last season. The only statistic that stands out here is Porcello’s 32.1% hard contact rate to lefties. Adam Frazier is an intriguing lead-off option that provides stolen base upside. Gregory Polanco led the Pirates last season with a 36.5% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching if you want to look his way in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.329	0.131	33.3%	8.2%	17.2%	SS	$2,100	2B/OF	$3,300
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.358	0.155	34.9%	4.4%	17.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,900
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.332	0.172	36.1%	9.6%	21.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.332	0.200	36.5%	9.0%	18.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.315	0.125	32.3%	8.3%	29.2%	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,300
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.303	0.066	24.3%	14.2%	19.6%	C	$2,200	C	$3,300
7	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.356	0.156	35.8%	14.0%	12.4%	1B	$2,500	OF	$3,400
8	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.290	0.093	25.7%	3.8%	14.6%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,800
9	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.290	0.103	24.9%	7.5%	14.7%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

Even though I’m not a Red Sox fan (I actually don’t have allegiances to any team), it’s going to be sad to see a Red Sox offense that doesn’t feature Big Papi. He had one of the best seasons of his career last season, but even with him gone, this Red Sox offense is not going to miss a beat. Gerrit Cole numbers are a bit strange in that he allows a higher wOBA and has a higher strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. Most pitchers wOBA and K% have an inverse relationship. I’m not sure that information is actionable, but I found it interesting. Anyway, the left-handed hitters in this lineup are in a great spot. We can also target the right-handed batters, as a 16% strikeout rate isn’t scaring anyone. Cole is also prone to giving up runs in bunches, which brings a Red Sox stack into play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.358	0.136	33.1%	7.7%	10.0%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,100
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.416	0.247	34.4%	8.2%	15.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
3	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.388	0.208	33.0%	6.9%	11.2%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,200
4	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.342	0.185	36.8%	9.4%	19.7%	1B	$3,400	1B/OF	$4,400
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.299	0.186	36.5%	7.4%	22.8%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,300
6	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.340	0.146	29.7%	7.0%	17.1%	SS	$3,400	3B/SS	$4,400
7	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.378	0.261	38.5%	10.8%	21.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200
8	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.099	0.000	0.0%	14.3%	57.1%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,700
9	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.329	0.141	34.1%	6.4%	26.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Colorado					Milwaukee
			Jon Gray					Junior Guerra
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -110					8.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.300	35.5%	7.7%	26.7%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.271	38.9%	10.9%	20.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.313	25.3%	8.9%	25.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.282	30.0%	7.0%	19.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jon Gray
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$8,200		Salary:			$7,800
	Salary Rank:			9 of 18		Salary Rank:			9 of 18
	2016	29	3.72	4.61	26.0%	8.3%	12.1%	43.5%	32.0%	30.6%

In my eyes, this is one of the most exciting games in the slate. Jon Gray is a pitcher to keep your eye on this season. Even though half of his starts will come in Coors Field (which is an auto-fade for pitchers), there is a lot to like about this young right-hander. He posted an elite strikeout rate of 26% last season and he gets to face a Brewers’ offense that was inside the top five in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching a year ago. Gray produces a healthy ground ball rate and faces a Brewers’ lineup that mostly consists of right-handed hitters. In 2016, Gray held right-handed batters to a hard contact rate of only 25.3%. He is one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate and you can even look to him as an SP2 on DraftKings.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Junior Guerra
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$8,100		Salary:			$6,400
	Salary Rank:			10 of 18		Salary Rank:			16 of 18
	2016	20	4.42	2.81	20.3%	8.7%	10.9%	45.3%	35.8%	33.8%

Junior Guerra managed to post a 2.81 ERA last season, despite giving up a hard contact rate over 30% to both left and right-handed hitters. He was aided by a .250 BABIP and a left on-base percentage of 79.4%. Those numbers are basically unsustainable over the course of a few seasons. I expect some regression this season. He does own a league-average strikeout rate, but there are better pitching options in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies are always an over-owned stack in Coors Field and are generally an under-owned stack on the road. We can use this to our advantage, especially since the sites adjust salaries for ballpark factors. The best way to attack Junior Guerra is with left-handed hitters. In 2016, he allowed a 38.9% hard contact rate with a K:BB ratio under 2.0. Guerra does generate a lot of ground balls, but the upside is massive for the Rockies’ hitters in the home run-friendly Miller Park. Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are two of the top outfield choices in the slate. If you want to stack Colorado, you can fill out the rest of the lineup with DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.405	0.275	38.7%	7.2%	16.8%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.390	0.132	34.7%	9.4%	12.1%	2B	$3,000	2B/3B	$4,300
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.395	0.289	37.7%	8.1%	13.8%	3B	$4,000	3B	$5,000
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.374	0.201	35.8%	9.3%	18.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.369	0.290	39.7%	6.7%	30.3%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,600
6	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.289	0.162	35.6%	2.5%	19.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800
7	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.371	0.201	28.6%	8.9%	25.6%	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,100
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.325	0.152	23.8%	9.6%	23.0%	C	$2,600	C	$2,900
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.201	0.051	33.3%	4.4%	53.3%	P	$8,200	P	$7,800

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee

If you are just looking at wOBA splits, you will see that Jon Gray allowed a higher wOBA to right-handed hitters than he did to left-handed hitters last season. However, the difference is small enough that I don’t put much stock into it. The glaring stat is that Gray allowed a 10% higher hard contact rate to left-handed hitters last season. I’m not particularly interested in the Brewers’ offense here, but Jonathan Villar is one of the few players with home run and stolen base upside. He is also a switch hitter with fairly good numbers against right-handed pitching. If Eric Thames bats clean-up (like he is projected to), he is worth a flier in tournaments at $2,200 on FanDuel.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.341	0.146	34.8%	11.9%	25.2%	3B	$3,600	3B/SS	$4,300
2	Eric Thames	LEFT						1B	$2,200	1B/OF	$3,800
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.365	0.226	32.8%	7.3%	18.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.324	0.180	35.8%	9.2%	24.6%	3B	$2,600	1B/3B	$3,500
5	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.316	0.178	36.9%	10.4%	34.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
6	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.306	0.169	41.9%	13.2%	35.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900
7	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.286	0.133	26.2%	3.0%	15.2%	C	$2,400	C	$2,700
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.243	0.129	22.9%	4.3%	22.8%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,400
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.245	0.043	25.0%	0.0%	31.0%	P	$8,100	P	$6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Toronto					Baltimore
			Marco Estrada					Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -105					8.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.266	26.7%	9.4%	22.5%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.284	32.1%	5.0%	23.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.293	36.4%	8.5%	23.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.349	30.2%	7.3%	22.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$7,900		Salary:			$7,000
	Salary Rank:			12 of 18		Salary Rank:			12 of 18
	2016	29	4.35	3.48	22.8%	9.0%	10.9%	33.5%	48.2%	31.3%

Marco Estrada is one of those pitchers whose SIERA is always higher than his ERA. His fastball tops out at around 88 MPH and he is a fly-ball pitcher. He also pitches in a division that has four home run-friendly ballparks. He relies on pinpoint control and a lot of pop ups to get the job done and it is a combination that has worked wonders in the last two seasons. Unfortunately, he has to pitch on the road in his first start against a talented Orioles’ offense that prides itself on hitting home runs (hey, chicks dig the long ball). The risk outweighs the reward for Estrada.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$8,000		Salary:			$6,600
	Salary Rank:			11 of 18		Salary Rank:			14 of 18
	2016	30	3.81	3.61	23.0%	6.2%	10.8%	44.1%	34.7%	31.1%

Kevin Gausman is coming off of his best season in the majors. He posted career highs in both innings pitched and in strikeouts. He finished the year with a 3.81 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 23%. There are some experts out there that don’t believe in reverse-splits, but Gausman’s numbers are hard to ignore. All throughout his career, he has been significantly better against left-handed hitters than he has been against right-handed hitters. This is information that we should store for future use. We won’t be needing a deep dive into his stats here, as the Blue Jays are not an offense that we want to pick on. Not only do they hit as many home runs as any team in baseball, but their lineup consists primarily of right-handed hitters.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays lost a key piece in Edwin Encarnacion, but I expect their offense to be just fine. They won’t be the most popular stack in this slate, but they will certainly garner ownership, as they almost always do. For a stack to be successful, we need home runs and that is one thing that the Blue Jays do very well. This is also a sneaky matchup for Toronto, as Kevin Gausman has some serious reverse-splits. In 2016, he allowed a .349 wOBA to right-handed hitters with a walk rate of 7.3%. Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, and Jose Bautista all bat from the right side and all have good power numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.360	0.171	30.7%	6.0%	20.2%	2B	$2,400	2B	$4,000
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.405	0.272	41.0%	14.8%	17.8%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,900
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.361	0.220	41.0%	17.7%	21.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.314	0.191	42.3%	9.0%	19.4%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,100
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.326	0.196	34.5%	7.3%	18.7%	SS	$2,900	SS	$4,400
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.325	0.173	29.9%	11.1%	27.1%	C	$2,600	C	$3,900
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.291	0.104	25.4%	4.8%	15.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,800
8	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.322	0.192	43.3%	12.6%	37.8%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,400
9	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.282	0.102	25.5%	9.5%	22.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200

Elite Plays – Devon Travis (FD), Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis (DK), Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

On paper, this is a great matchup for a few home runs. Marco Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (48.2%) and the Orioles are playing at home, where they hit a lot of home runs. While we need home runs to win tournaments, fly balls also lead to more outs. This could be a game where the Orioles hit three home runs, but those three hitters are the only ones that we need. Basically, an Orioles’ stack is in play here, but I’m leaning toward picking my spots instead of employing a full stack. The top six hitters are all in play in this lineup and I will be rotating mini-stacks throughout my tournament teams. For cash games, Manny Machado is an elite play at third base.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.340	0.175	34.2%	11.4%	20.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.338	0.195	33.3%	5.6%	15.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.359	0.252	34.9%	6.3%	18.0%	3B	$3,900	3B/SS	$5,100
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.352	0.264	42.9%	14.0%	33.4%	1B	$3,200	1B/OF	$4,300
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.391	0.300	39.9%	8.2%	25.1%	OF	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,200
6	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.301	0.126	34.3%	6.4%	27.9%	C	$2,700	C	$3,700
7	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.367	0.125	31.1%	9.9%	14.6%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,400
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.329	0.193	28.3%	3.1%	20.0%	2B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,900
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.299	0.123	31.4%	4.7%	16.6%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100

MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 3rd

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Stackability Rating System:

Miami at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at NY Mets – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Jay Bruce, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lucas Duda, Neil Walker

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Boston – 2:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Devon Travis (FD), Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis (DK), Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim, Adam Jones, Seth Smith

Stackability – GREEN (mini-stacks)

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