MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 15th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Boston at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET
| Boston | Cleveland |
| | | |
| LEFT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| CLE -108 | 9.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 4 | 26.8% | 24.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 16 | 35.5% | 17.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.294 | 18 | 27.6% | 25.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.350 | 24 | 33.4% | 19.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Drew Pomeranz |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | |
| FPPG: | 35.1 | FPPG: | |
| Pitcher Rating: | 65.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 7 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 91.2 | 4.37 | 5.26 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 52.1% | 32.4% | 33.3% |
| 2016 | 22 | 97.9 | 3.84 | 3.03 | 26.9% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 48.7% | 36.1% | 29.2% |
| 2015 | 9 | 90.2 | 3.73 | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 42.2% | 36.3% | 24.9% |
Pomeranz will be making his sixth start as a member of the Red Sox. In his first five outings, he has struggled with his command, which has led to a 5.26 ERA. A slight drop in his numbers is to be expected coming over from San Diego, but the Red Sox are hoping for more than what he has given them so far. He draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Indians and he has to face them in Cleveland. On the season, the Indians are ranked 18th or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching. The strikeout upside is always there for Pomeranz, but the Indians are one of the most patient teams at the plate. If Pomeranz struggles to find the strike zone, it could be a long day.
| Josh Tomlin |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | |
| FPPG: | 29.5 | FPPG: | |
| Pitcher Rating: | 58.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 10 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 95.4 | 4.03 | 6.44 | 19.4% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 42.7% | 33.3% | 40.2% |
| 2016 | 21 | 92.9 | 4.18 | 4.18 | 17.2% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 41.8% | 36.6% | 34.9% |
| 2015 | 10 | 94.9 | 3.46 | 3.02 | 22.7% | 3.2% | 9.4% | 37.5% | 46.2% | 33.2% |
Tomlin has been a fade for me this season. After a breakout year in 2015, his numbers are down across the board this season. In 21 starts, he has a 4.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.2% and a walk rate of 3.2%. His swinging strike rate is sitting at 7.3%, which is well below the major league average. He is a fly ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. The Red Sox may not be as potent of an offense on the road as they are in Fenway, but there is no reason to take a risk on Tomlin. There are better options in both cash games and GPPs.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox put up 16 runs against the Diamondbacks on Sunday and hit three home runs. I know that momentum in baseball only goes as far as the next day’s starting pitcher, but this appears to be another favorable matchup for Boston. has extreme reverse-splits, meaning he gives up a higher wOBA to batters of the same handedness as himself. In the last two seasons, Tomlin has allowed a .350 wOBA and 25 home runs to right-handed hitters.
- Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.348 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.1% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.52 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.70 (5 of 20)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.147 | 0.310 | 2B | $3,400 | | |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.121 | 0.194 | SS | $3,400 | | |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.425 | 0.338 | 0.255 | 1B | $4,000 | | |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.152 | 0.312 | 1B | $3,300 | | |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.262 | 0.245 | OF | $3,300 | | |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.186 | 0.224 | 3B | $2,700 | | |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.119 | 0.305 | OF | $2,900 | | |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.326 | 0.123 | 0.466 | C | $3,000 | | |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.418 | 0.091 | 0.381 | OF | $2,700 | | |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.354 | 0.171 | 0.299 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Cleveland
The Indians’ offense has been firing on all cylinder in the last two weeks, ranking third in both team wOBA (.364) and team ISO (.196). Their matchup against would be a lot more intimidating if this game was a couple of months ago. He hasn’t been in nearly as good of form since coming over from San Diego. Pomeranz is tough on left-handed hitters, but he has allowed a .294 wOBA and 18 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
- Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.328 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.155 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.3% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.92 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.11 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.80 (3 of 20)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.173 | 0.358 | OF | $3,100 | | |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.149 | 0.375 | 2B | $3,700 | | |
| 3 | | SWITCH | 0.360 | 0.164 | 0.345 | SS | $3,500 | | |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.404 | 0.281 | 0.550 | 1B | $3,500 | | |
| 5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.320 | 0.130 | 0.492 | 3B | $3,000 | | |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.403 | 0.208 | 0.550 | OF | $2,600 | | |
| 7 | | SWITCH | 0.299 | 0.102 | 0.325 | OF | $2,700 | | |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.138 | 0.186 | C | $2,000 | | |
| 9 | | SWITCH | 0.287 | 0.056 | 0.212 | SS | $2,100 | | |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.336 | 0.156 | 0.377 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , , Jose Ramirez
Stackability – YELLOW
| Toronto | NY Yankees |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| TOR -115 | 9.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.313 | 23 | 23.8% | 14.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.469 | 6 | 34.2% | 20.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.329 | 28 | 28.8% | 16.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.280 | 2 | 38.5% | 28.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| R.A. Dickey |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $5,600 |
| FPPG: | 24.8 | FPPG: | 11.8 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 44.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 17 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 91.2 | 5.07 | 7.62 | 17.1% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 37.5% | 38.8% | 28.4% |
| 2016 | 24 | 96.3 | 4.78 | 4.61 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 43.4% | 35.1% | 30.4% |
| 2015 | 33 | 98.9 | 4.76 | 3.91 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 41.9% | 37.2% | 23.9% |
Dickey is coming off of a rough five-game stretch where he had a 5.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.1% and a walk rate of 10.3%. Knuckleball pitchers can find their rhythm at any time, but there isn’t enough upside in the play to make it worthwhile. The Yankees will likely be a better offense moving forward, after releasing Alex Rodriguez and calling up two of their top prospects in and (who both homered in their first major league at-bats). Dickey is a small favorite here, but he is a risky play tonight.
| Chad Green |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,700 |
| FPPG: | 17.0 | FPPG: | 8.7 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 59.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 9 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 1 | 243.0 | 4.61 | 2.25 | 17.0% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 58.3% | 16.7% | 21.6% |
| 2016 | 4 | 123.0 | 3.63 | 4.94 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 49.4% | 27.3% | 36.3% |
The Yankees placed on the DL, which means they may get a longer look at rookie . He has had more success out of the bullpen than he has as a starter this season, but he has shown some nice upside with a strikeout rate of 24.4%. The Yankees are hopeful that he can become a featured piece in their rotation, but it may take some time for him to develop. With a matchup against a very talented Blue Jays’ offense, Green can be avoided in all league formats.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays currently hold a half-game lead over the Orioles in the American League East. They don’t have an awful starting rotation, but they wouldn’t have such a good record if it weren’t for their offense. On the season, Toronto is ranked ninth in team wOBA and third in team ISO against right-handed pitching. They draw an exploitable matchup against rookie , who is only making his fifth career major league start. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, including , who has been on an absolute tear over the last month.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (25 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.06 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.81 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.84 (3 of 20)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.195 | 0.377 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,700 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.268 | 0.332 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $5,200 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.285 | 0.386 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $4,700 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.338 | 0.191 | 0.230 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,900 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.175 | 0.355 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $4,500 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.177 | 0.342 | C | $2,900 | C | $3,400 |
| 7 | | SWITCH | 0.328 | 0.226 | 0.228 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,700 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.140 | 0.162 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,200 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.233 | 0.085 | 0.138 | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,700 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.331 | 0.194 | 0.283 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
NY Yankees
The Yankees move to call up and has already started to pay off. They both homered in their very first at-bats and Judge hit another one yesterday against the Rays. Their salaries are only going to go up from here, so it could be a good opportunity to buy low, especially if they start batting higher up in the order. New York draws a favorable matchup against , who has allowed 51 home runs in the last two seasons – 23 to left-handed hitters and 28 to right-handed hitters.
- Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.7% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.66 (8 of 20)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.309 | 0.101 | 0.329 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,200 |
| 2 | | SWITCH | 0.287 | 0.132 | 0.353 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,600 |
| 3 | | SWITCH | 0.306 | 0.122 | 0.260 | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,500 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.198 | 0.208 | C | $3,000 | C | $3,400 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.313 | 0.149 | 0.348 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $4,200 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.136 | 0.367 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $4,000 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.390 | 0.231 | 0.355 | C | $2,600 | C | $2,900 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.724 | 0.750 | 0.724 | 1B | $2,600 | OF | $2,600 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.724 | 0.750 | 0.724 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,100 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.408 | 0.285 | 0.408 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – , , , ,
Stackability – YELLOW
Kansas City at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET
| Kansas City | Detroit |
| | | |
| RIGHT | LEFT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| DET -140 | 9.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.342 | 33 | 37.6% | 24.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.375 | 5 | 30.7% | 20.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.325 | 25 | 35.2% | 24.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.316 | 7 | 26.7% | 18.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ian Kennedy |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $9,800 |
| FPPG: | 30.5 | FPPG: | 16.3 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 61.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 8 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 104.7 | 4.33 | 3.71 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 36.1% | 45.4% | 39.2% |
| 2016 | 23 | 101.3 | 4.05 | 3.91 | 24.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 34.1% | 47.3% | 37.9% |
| 2015 | 30 | 97.0 | 3.61 | 4.28 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 38.5% | 38.7% | 35.2% |
Kennedy would be an elite pitcher if he didn’t give up so many home runs. Unfortunately, home runs are a big part of baseball and unfortunately, he gives them up in bunches. In the last two seasons, he has allowed 58 home runs in only 53 starts. The rest of his statistics check out and he does boast an above-average strikeout rate (24%), but the blowup potential is always looming with Kennedy. He should be avoided tonight against the Tigers, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA and tenth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
| Daniel Norris |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $6,900 |
| FPPG: | 19.8 | FPPG: | 9.8 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 52.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 13 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 1 | 85.0 | 5.37 | 1.80 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 41.2% | 41.2% | 23.5% |
| 2016 | 4 | 76.3 | 3.87 | 4.00 | 23.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 33.3% | 43.9% | 24.6% |
| 2015 | 13 | 79.6 | 4.45 | 3.75 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 39.3% | 43.2% | 28.7% |
Norris is making his fifth start of the season tonight. His first four outings have been pretty good, as he posted a 3.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.5% and a walk rate of 6.2%. He isn’t generating enough swings and misses, but he has a strikeout rate of at least 23% at every level of baseball this season (how many pitchers can say that?). He comes into tonight’s game as a small favorite against the Royals, but the over/under of 9.0 runs suggests a high scoring game. I don’t mind targeting pitchers against the Royals, but only when I feel confident about it. I will continue to take a wait and see approach with Norris.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals’ offense has been missing for basically the entire season. They are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO against left-handed pitching. They also average the fourth fewest runs per game. They have a respectable run projection of 4.27 tonight, as they square off against the inexperienced . The sample size is small, but Norris has allowed a .375 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .316 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
- Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.314 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.149 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.0% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.79 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.91 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.27 (13 of 20)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.156 | 0.370 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,600 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.160 | 0.362 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $3,700 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.406 | 0.233 | 0.180 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,800 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.311 | 0.139 | 0.263 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,500 |
| 5 | | SWITCH | 0.341 | 0.155 | 0.333 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B/OF | $3,700 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.267 | 0.142 | 0.252 | C | $3,100 | C | $3,000 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.120 | 0.272 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $2,700 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.251 | 0.057 | 0.241 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $2,700 |
| 9 | | SWITCH | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $2,500 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.311 | 0.129 | 0.270 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Detroit
The Tigers currently find themselves five games out of the division lead and a game and a half out of the Wildcard. They need a strong finish to the season if they are going to make any noise in the playoffs. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against , who continues to give up home run after home run. In addition to the 58 long balls allowed in the last two seasons, Kennedy has also given up a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .325 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
- Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (20 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.70 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.73 (4 of 20)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.150 | 0.376 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $4,300 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.184 | 0.307 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,500 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.406 | 0.223 | 0.519 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,700 |
| 4 | | SWITCH | 0.305 | 0.152 | 0.414 | C | $3,500 | 1B | $3,800 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.238 | 0.449 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,500 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.197 | 0.213 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,300 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.223 | 0.077 | 0.318 | 3B | $2,300 | 1B/3B | $2,300 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.245 | 0.076 | 0.357 | C | $2,300 | C | $3,000 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.280 | 0.072 | 0.226 | SS | $2,000 | OF/SS | $2,600 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.314 | 0.152 | 0.353 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Miami at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET
| Miami | Cincinnati |
| | | |
| RIGHT | LEFT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| MIA -122 | 8.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.326 | 9 | 31.9% | 18.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.312 | 4 | 31.3% | 16.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 7 | 31.5% | 23.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.334 | 28 | 38.1% | 19.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| David Phelps |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $4,000 |
| FPPG: | 8.3 | FPPG: | 4.6 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 71.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 5 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 2 | 161.5 | 4.24 | 2.04 | 29.0% | 15.8% | 8.7% | 47.6% | 33.3% | 28.6% |
| 2016 | 2 | 80.5 | 3.18 | 2.40 | 30.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 44.7% | 36.0% | 25.5% |
| 2015 | 19 | 80.5 | 4.49 | 4.50 | 16.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 41.8% | 35.2% | 34.2% |
Phelps has really been impressive this season, posting a 2.40 ERA with a strikeout rate over 30%. The problem is that most of that work has been out of the bullpen and he doesn’t have the best track record as a starter. He has only allowed one run combined in his two starts this season, but he failed to pitch more than five innings in both outings. Until he sees a full complement of pitches (100+), I will be taking a cautious approach with Phelps. Targeting pitcher in the Great American Ballpark is a risky proposition anyway.
| Brandon Finnegan |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $7,000 |
| FPPG: | 22.6 | FPPG: | 10.9 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 44.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 17 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 90.0 | 4.86 | 3.54 | 19.1% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 34.6% | 38.3% | 43.2% |
| 2016 | 23 | 94.5 | 5.26 | 4.45 | 17.1% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 38.3% | 38.0% | 38.3% |
| 2015 | 4 | 187.8 | 3.77 | 3.56 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 54.3% | 29.1% | 30.8% |
Finnegan hasn’t had the same type of success that he did a year ago. In 23 starts this season, he has a 5.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.1% and a walk rate of 11.7%. He is a fly ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 38.3%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins, but there is enough risk that you don’t need to look his way in this nine-game slate. Being an underdog at home against a mediocre pitcher is never a great sign.
Batter Grind Down
Miami
The Marlins suffered a huge blow yesterday when it was announced that would miss the rest of the season. As a team, they have not hit left-handed pitching well this season, ranking 20th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching. They do, however, average more pitches per plate appearance than any team in baseball. They draw a great matchup against and they get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .334 wOBA and 28 home runs to right-handed hitters.
- Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.317 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.135 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.6% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 4.02 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.28 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.38 (10 of 20)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.090 | 0.359 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $5,100 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.409 | 0.141 | 0.344 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,600 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.073 | 0.371 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,600 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.406 | 0.250 | 0.186 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,900 |
| 5 | Chris Johnson | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.080 | 0.181 | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $2,800 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.151 | 0.360 | C | $3,000 | C | $3,600 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.100 | 0.325 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $4,200 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.132 | 0.236 | SS | $2,300 | SS | $2,800 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.088 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $6,100 | P | $4,000 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.313 | 0.113 | 0.262 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – YELLOW
Cincinnati
The Reds are always a decent team to target in DFS, but they have a below-average offense overall. The two main reasons why we can target the Reds are and . Cincinnati draws a mediocre matchup tonight against , who has allowed a .325 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. That bodes well for both Votto and Hamilton.
- Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.157 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.3% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.41 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.12 (16 of 20)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | SWITCH | 0.271 | 0.061 | 0.346 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $5,500 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.175 | 0.232 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,100 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.419 | 0.230 | 0.466 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $5,200 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.302 | 0.350 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,900 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.114 | 0.479 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $4,900 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.189 | 0.223 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,100 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.302 | 0.156 | 0.320 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,600 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.311 | 0.113 | 0.398 | C | $2,300 | C | $3,800 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.111 | 0.025 | 0.000 | P | $6,700 | P | $7,000 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.299 | 0.152 | 0.313 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
San Diego at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET
| San Diego | Tampa Bay |
| | | |
| RIGHT | LEFT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| TB -170 | 8.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.371 | 9 | 39.4% | 13.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.302 | 6 | 33.3% | 34.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.393 | 5 | 26.1% | 18.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.327 | 28 | 30.2% | 22.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Luis Perdomo |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $5,000 |
| FPPG: | 12.5 | FPPG: | 4.6 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 49.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 15 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 101.4 | 4.64 | 5.28 | 13.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 57.7% | 27.9% | 35.6% |
| 2016 | 12 | 137.2 | 4.12 | 6.80 | 16.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 58.8% | 21.7% | 32.4% |
Perdomo is more talented than his numbers would suggest. In 12 starts this season, he has a 6.80 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.2%. On the bright side, he has a decent swinging strike rate and an elite ground ball rate. He has good velocity on his fastball and should be able to improve his strikeout rate. Unfortunately, we don’t have time to wait for those numbers to improve, all we care about in DFS is the present. Perdomo is a sizable underdog on the road that can be avoided in all league formats.
| Drew Smyly |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $9,000 |
| FPPG: | 27.7 | FPPG: | 14.5 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 81.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 2 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 92.4 | 4.86 | 3.60 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 25.8% | 49.5% | 30.1% |
| 2016 | 22 | 97.0 | 3.96 | 5.04 | 23.6% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 31.4% | 47.6% | 30.4% |
| 2015 | 12 | 94.7 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 28.0% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 36.8% | 44.3% | 31.6% |
Smyly has struggled with consistency this season. He hasn’t been in the best of form recently, posting a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.9% in his last five starts. While the Padres are ranked fourth in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season, they no longer have or . Their lineup now has two or three lefties in it each night. At Smyly’s price, there isn’t a ton of downside, especially when you consider the fact that the Padres have the third highest strikeout rate against southpaws.
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
The Padres come into tonight’s game with the second lowest implied team total on the board, which is yet another reason to like in this matchup. The one plus for the Padres is that Smyly has allowed a .327 wOBA and 28 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. and are both intriguing one-off targets in tournaments.
- Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.344 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.185 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.2% (28 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.90 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.40 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.59 (19 of 20)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.191 | 0.067 | 0.409 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,900 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.414 | 0.228 | 0.424 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,600 |
| 3 | | SWITCH | 0.327 | 0.162 | 0.343 | 3B | $3,000 | 2B/3B | $4,300 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.338 | 0.238 | 0.341 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,100 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.364 | 0.367 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,400 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.158 | 0.204 | C | $2,600 | C | $2,500 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.153 | 0.196 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B/3B | $3,200 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.095 | 0.346 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,700 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.153 | 0.196 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B/3B | $3,200 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.320 | 0.180 | 0.314 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – RED
Tampa Bay
The Rays haven’t been great as a team against right-handed pitching, but they have a slight above-average team total tonight against . The one red flag in this matchup is Perdomo’s ground ball rate of 58.8%. I probably won’t have a ton of exposure to the Rays here, but Perdomo has allowed a .370+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.
- Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.0% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (9 of 20)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.130 | 0.389 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,500 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.316 | 0.175 | 0.303 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,800 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.193 | 0.343 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,500 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.356 | 0.230 | 0.472 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $5,300 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.131 | 0.220 | SS | $2,600 | 3B | $3,500 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.164 | 0.336 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.243 | 0.105 | 0.249 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,500 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.273 | 0.162 | 0.246 | 2B | $2,300 | 1B/OF | $3,500 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.185 | 0.053 | 0.161 | C | $2,000 | C | $2,600 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.297 | 0.149 | 0.302 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
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