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MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 15th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Boston at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Boston Cleveland
bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -108 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.239 4 26.8% 24.5% SP vs. Left 0.260 16 35.5% 17.9%
SP vs. Right 0.294 18 27.6% 25.6% SP vs. Right 0.350 24 33.4% 19.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary:
FPPG: 35.1 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 65.2 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 91.2 4.37 5.26 22.8% 11.4% 9.7% 52.1% 32.4% 33.3%
2016 22 97.9 3.84 3.03 26.9% 10.3% 11.0% 48.7% 36.1% 29.2%
2015 9 90.2 3.73 3.66 23.0% 8.7% 11.0% 42.2% 36.3% 24.9%

Pomeranz will be making his sixth start as a member of the Red Sox. In his first five outings, he has struggled with his command, which has led to a 5.26 ERA. A slight drop in his numbers is to be expected coming over from San Diego, but the Red Sox are hoping for more than what he has given them so far. He draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Indians and he has to face them in Cleveland. On the season, the Indians are ranked 18th or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching. The strikeout upside is always there for Pomeranz, but the Indians are one of the most patient teams at the plate. If Pomeranz struggles to find the strike zone, it could be a long day.

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary:
FPPG: 29.5 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 58.9 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 95.4 4.03 6.44 19.4% 4.7% 9.2% 42.7% 33.3% 40.2%
2016 21 92.9 4.18 4.18 17.2% 3.2% 7.3% 41.8% 36.6% 34.9%
2015 10 94.9 3.46 3.02 22.7% 3.2% 9.4% 37.5% 46.2% 33.2%

Tomlin has been a fade for me this season. After a breakout year in 2015, his numbers are down across the board this season. In 21 starts, he has a 4.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.2% and a walk rate of 3.2%. His swinging strike rate is sitting at 7.3%, which is well below the major league average. He is a fly ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. The Red Sox may not be as potent of an offense on the road as they are in Fenway, but there is no reason to take a risk on Tomlin. There are better options in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox put up 16 runs against the Diamondbacks on Sunday and Mookie Betts hit three home runs. I know that momentum in baseball only goes as far as the next day’s starting pitcher, but this appears to be another favorable matchup for Boston. Josh Tomlin has extreme reverse-splits, meaning he gives up a higher wOBA to batters of the same handedness as himself. In the last two seasons, Tomlin has allowed a .350 wOBA and 25 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.353 0.147 0.310 2B $3,400
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.335 0.121 0.194 SS $3,400
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.425 0.338 0.255 1B $4,000
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.308 0.152 0.312 1B $3,300
5 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.372 0.262 0.245 OF $3,300
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.332 0.186 0.224 3B $2,700
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.317 0.119 0.305 OF $2,900
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.326 0.123 0.466 C $3,000
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.418 0.091 0.381 OF $2,700
Team Averages 0.354 0.171 0.299

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Aaron Hill

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland

The Indians’ offense has been firing on all cylinder in the last two weeks, ranking third in both team wOBA (.364) and team ISO (.196). Their matchup against Drew Pomeranz would be a lot more intimidating if this game was a couple of months ago. He hasn’t been in nearly as good of form since coming over from San Diego. Pomeranz is tough on left-handed hitters, but he has allowed a .294 wOBA and 18 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.319 0.173 0.358 OF $3,100
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.315 0.149 0.375 2B $3,700
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.360 0.164 0.345 SS $3,500
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.404 0.281 0.550 1B $3,500
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.320 0.130 0.492 3B $3,000
6 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.403 0.208 0.550 OF $2,600
7 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.299 0.102 0.325 OF $2,700
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.318 0.138 0.186 C $2,000
9 Michael Martinez SWITCH 0.287 0.056 0.212 SS $2,100
Team Averages 0.336 0.156 0.377

Elite Plays – Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto NY Yankees
torontomlb R.A. Dickey nyyankeesmlb Chad Green
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -115 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.313 23 23.8% 14.0% SP vs. Left 0.469 6 34.2% 20.0%
SP vs. Right 0.329 28 28.8% 16.5% SP vs. Right 0.280 2 38.5% 28.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey
r.a.-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,600
FPPG: 24.8 FPPG: 11.8
Pitcher Rating: 44.3 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 91.2 5.07 7.62 17.1% 10.3% 13.4% 37.5% 38.8% 28.4%
2016 24 96.3 4.78 4.61 17.0% 8.6% 10.5% 43.4% 35.1% 30.4%
2015 33 98.9 4.76 3.91 14.3% 6.9% 9.1% 41.9% 37.2% 23.9%

Dickey is coming off of a rough five-game stretch where he had a 5.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.1% and a walk rate of 10.3%. Knuckleball pitchers can find their rhythm at any time, but there isn’t enough upside in the play to make it worthwhile. The Yankees will likely be a better offense moving forward, after releasing Alex Rodriguez and calling up two of their top prospects in Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin (who both homered in their first major league at-bats). Dickey is a small favorite here, but he is a risky play tonight.

Chad Green
chad-green-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,700
FPPG: 17.0 FPPG: 8.7
Pitcher Rating: 59.3 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 1 243.0 4.61 2.25 17.0% 13.2% 10.7% 58.3% 16.7% 21.6%
2016 4 123.0 3.63 4.94 24.4% 8.4% 12.2% 49.4% 27.3% 36.3%

The Yankees placed Nathan Eovaldi on the DL, which means they may get a longer look at rookie Chad Green. He has had more success out of the bullpen than he has as a starter this season, but he has shown some nice upside with a strikeout rate of 24.4%. The Yankees are hopeful that he can become a featured piece in their rotation, but it may take some time for him to develop. With a matchup against a very talented Blue Jays’ offense, Green can be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays currently hold a half-game lead over the Orioles in the American League East. They don’t have an awful starting rotation, but they wouldn’t have such a good record if it weren’t for their offense. On the season, Toronto is ranked ninth in team wOBA and third in team ISO against right-handed pitching. They draw an exploitable matchup against rookie Chad Green, who is only making his fifth career major league start. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, including Devon Travis, who has been on an absolute tear over the last month.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.369 0.195 0.377 2B $3,400 2B $4,700
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.395 0.268 0.332 3B $4,300 3B $5,200
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.391 0.285 0.386 1B $4,300 1B $4,700
4 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.338 0.191 0.230 OF $3,400 OF $3,900
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.319 0.175 0.355 SS $3,000 SS $4,500
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.315 0.177 0.342 C $2,900 C $3,400
7 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.328 0.226 0.228 1B $3,100 1B $3,700
8 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.288 0.140 0.162 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
9 Darrell Ceciliani LEFT 0.233 0.085 0.138 OF $2,000 OF $2,700
Team Averages 0.331 0.194 0.283

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Yankees

The Yankees move to call up Tyler Austin and Aaron Judge has already started to pay off. They both homered in their very first at-bats and Judge hit another one yesterday against the Rays. Their salaries are only going to go up from here, so it could be a good opportunity to buy low, especially if they start batting higher up in the order. New York draws a favorable matchup against R.A. Dickey, who has allowed 51 home runs in the last two seasons – 23 to left-handed hitters and 28 to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.309 0.101 0.329 OF $3,000 OF $4,200
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.287 0.132 0.353 OF $2,200 OF $3,600
3 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.306 0.122 0.260 3B $2,600 3B $3,500
4 Brian McCann LEFT 0.324 0.198 0.208 C $3,000 C $3,400
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.313 0.149 0.348 SS $2,900 SS $4,200
6 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.296 0.136 0.367 2B $2,800 2B $4,000
7 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.390 0.231 0.355 C $2,600 C $2,900
8 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.724 0.750 0.724 1B $2,600 OF $2,600
9 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.724 0.750 0.724 OF $2,700 OF $3,100
Team Averages 0.408 0.285 0.408

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, Aaron Judge

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Kansas City Detroit
kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy detroitmlb Daniel Norris
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -140 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.342 33 37.6% 24.3% SP vs. Left 0.375 5 30.7% 20.7%
SP vs. Right 0.325 25 35.2% 24.1% SP vs. Right 0.316 7 26.7% 18.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $9,800
FPPG: 30.5 FPPG: 16.3
Pitcher Rating: 61.8 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 104.7 4.33 3.71 21.7% 8.4% 9.9% 36.1% 45.4% 39.2%
2016 23 101.3 4.05 3.91 24.0% 8.1% 10.1% 34.1% 47.3% 37.9%
2015 30 97.0 3.61 4.28 24.4% 7.3% 10.3% 38.5% 38.7% 35.2%

Kennedy would be an elite pitcher if he didn’t give up so many home runs. Unfortunately, home runs are a big part of baseball and unfortunately, he gives them up in bunches. In the last two seasons, he has allowed 58 home runs in only 53 starts. The rest of his statistics check out and he does boast an above-average strikeout rate (24%), but the blowup potential is always looming with Kennedy. He should be avoided tonight against the Tigers, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA and tenth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Daniel Norris
daniel-norris-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,900
FPPG: 19.8 FPPG: 9.8
Pitcher Rating: 52.8 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 1 85.0 5.37 1.80 13.6% 9.1% 5.9% 41.2% 41.2% 23.5%
2016 4 76.3 3.87 4.00 23.5% 6.2% 7.2% 33.3% 43.9% 24.6%
2015 13 79.6 4.45 3.75 17.9% 7.6% 9.2% 39.3% 43.2% 28.7%

Norris is making his fifth start of the season tonight. His first four outings have been pretty good, as he posted a 3.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.5% and a walk rate of 6.2%. He isn’t generating enough swings and misses, but he has a strikeout rate of at least 23% at every level of baseball this season (how many pitchers can say that?). He comes into tonight’s game as a small favorite against the Royals, but the over/under of 9.0 runs suggests a high scoring game. I don’t mind targeting pitchers against the Royals, but only when I feel confident about it. I will continue to take a wait and see approach with Norris.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals’ offense has been missing for basically the entire season. They are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO against left-handed pitching. They also average the fourth fewest runs per game. They have a respectable run projection of 4.27 tonight, as they square off against the inexperienced Daniel Norris. The sample size is small, but Norris has allowed a .375 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .316 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.341 0.156 0.370 OF $3,100 OF $3,600
2 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.361 0.160 0.362 3B $3,400 3B $3,700
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.406 0.233 0.180 OF $3,200 OF $3,800
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.311 0.139 0.263 1B $3,400 1B $3,500
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.341 0.155 0.333 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,700
6 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.267 0.142 0.252 C $3,100 C $3,000
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.317 0.120 0.272 OF $2,800 OF $2,700
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.251 0.057 0.241 SS $2,700 SS $2,700
9 Raul Mondesi SWITCH 0.200 0.000 0.153 2B $2,400 2B $2,500
Team Averages 0.311 0.129 0.270

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paulo Orlando, Cheslor Cuthbert, Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers currently find themselves five games out of the division lead and a game and a half out of the Wildcard. They need a strong finish to the season if they are going to make any noise in the playoffs. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Ian Kennedy, who continues to give up home run after home run. In addition to the 58 long balls allowed in the last two seasons, Kennedy has also given up a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .325 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.337 0.150 0.376 2B $3,900 2B $4,300
2 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.324 0.184 0.307 OF $2,400 OF $2,500
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.406 0.223 0.519 1B $3,900 1B $4,700
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.305 0.152 0.414 C $3,500 1B $3,800
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.369 0.238 0.449 OF $3,400 OF $3,500
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.334 0.197 0.213 OF $2,700 OF $2,300
7 Casey McGehee RIGHT 0.223 0.077 0.318 3B $2,300 1B/3B $2,300
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.245 0.076 0.357 C $2,300 C $3,000
9 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.280 0.072 0.226 SS $2,000 OF/SS $2,600
Team Averages 0.314 0.152 0.353

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Tyler Collins, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Miami Cincinnati
miamimlb David Phelps cincinnatimlb Brandon Finnegan
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA -122 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.326 9 31.9% 18.3% SP vs. Left 0.312 4 31.3% 16.2%
SP vs. Right 0.278 7 31.5% 23.1% SP vs. Right 0.334 28 38.1% 19.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Phelps
david-phelps-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 8.3 FPPG: 4.6
Pitcher Rating: 71.5 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 2 161.5 4.24 2.04 29.0% 15.8% 8.7% 47.6% 33.3% 28.6%
2016 2 80.5 3.18 2.40 30.2% 10.1% 9.4% 44.7% 36.0% 25.5%
2015 19 80.5 4.49 4.50 16.0% 6.9% 4.5% 41.8% 35.2% 34.2%

Phelps has really been impressive this season, posting a 2.40 ERA with a strikeout rate over 30%. The problem is that most of that work has been out of the bullpen and he doesn’t have the best track record as a starter. He has only allowed one run combined in his two starts this season, but he failed to pitch more than five innings in both outings. Until he sees a full complement of pitches (100+), I will be taking a cautious approach with Phelps. Targeting pitcher in the Great American Ballpark is a risky proposition anyway.

Brandon Finnegan
brandon-finnegan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,000
FPPG: 22.6 FPPG: 10.9
Pitcher Rating: 44.8 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 90.0 4.86 3.54 19.1% 10.4% 8.2% 34.6% 38.3% 43.2%
2016 23 94.5 5.26 4.45 17.1% 11.7% 8.8% 38.3% 38.0% 38.3%
2015 4 187.8 3.77 3.56 22.8% 10.7% 9.7% 54.3% 29.1% 30.8%

Finnegan hasn’t had the same type of success that he did a year ago. In 23 starts this season, he has a 5.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.1% and a walk rate of 11.7%. He is a fly ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 38.3%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins, but there is enough risk that you don’t need to look his way in this nine-game slate. Being an underdog at home against a mediocre pitcher is never a great sign.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins suffered a huge blow yesterday when it was announced that Giancarlo Stanton would miss the rest of the season. As a team, they have not hit left-handed pitching well this season, ranking 20th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching. They do, however, average more pitches per plate appearance than any team in baseball. They draw a great matchup against Brandon Finnegan and they get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .334 wOBA and 28 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.347 0.090 0.359 2B $3,400 2B $5,100
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.409 0.141 0.344 3B $3,300 3B $4,600
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.317 0.073 0.371 OF $3,300 OF $4,600
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.406 0.250 0.186 OF $3,400 OF $3,900
5 Chris Johnson RIGHT 0.292 0.080 0.181 1B $2,400 1B $2,800
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.298 0.151 0.360 C $3,000 C $3,600
7 Ichiro Suzuki LEFT 0.340 0.100 0.325 OF $2,600 OF $4,200
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.323 0.132 0.236 SS $2,300 SS $2,800
9 David Phelps RIGHT 0.088 0.000 0.000 P $6,100 P $4,000
Team Averages 0.313 0.113 0.262

Elite Plays – Martin Prado, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds are always a decent team to target in DFS, but they have a below-average offense overall. The two main reasons why we can target the Reds are Joey Votto and Billy Hamilton. Cincinnati draws a mediocre matchup tonight against David Phelps, who has allowed a .325 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. That bodes well for both Votto and Hamilton.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.271 0.061 0.346 OF $3,500 OF $5,500
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.319 0.175 0.232 SS $3,400 SS $4,100
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.419 0.230 0.466 1B $4,000 1B $5,200
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.355 0.302 0.350 OF $3,400 OF $4,900
5 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.317 0.114 0.479 2B $3,000 2B $4,900
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.282 0.189 0.223 OF $2,400 OF $3,100
7 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.302 0.156 0.320 3B $3,000 3B $4,600
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.311 0.113 0.398 C $2,300 C $3,800
9 Brandon Finnegan LEFT 0.111 0.025 0.000 P $6,700 P $7,000
Team Averages 0.299 0.152 0.313

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

San Diego Tampa Bay
sandiegomlb Luis Perdomo tampabaymlb Drew Smyly
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -170 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.371 9 39.4% 13.0% SP vs. Left 0.302 6 33.3% 34.7%
SP vs. Right 0.393 5 26.1% 18.7% SP vs. Right 0.327 28 30.2% 22.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Perdomo
luis-perdomo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 12.5 FPPG: 4.6
Pitcher Rating: 49.7 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 101.4 4.64 5.28 13.4% 7.5% 7.5% 57.7% 27.9% 35.6%
2016 12 137.2 4.12 6.80 16.2% 8.1% 9.5% 58.8% 21.7% 32.4%

Perdomo is more talented than his numbers would suggest. In 12 starts this season, he has a 6.80 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.2%. On the bright side, he has a decent swinging strike rate and an elite ground ball rate. He has good velocity on his fastball and should be able to improve his strikeout rate. Unfortunately, we don’t have time to wait for those numbers to improve, all we care about in DFS is the present. Perdomo is a sizable underdog on the road that can be avoided in all league formats.

Drew Smyly
drew-smyly-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $9,000
FPPG: 27.7 FPPG: 14.5
Pitcher Rating: 81.7 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 92.4 4.86 3.60 17.9% 6.5% 7.6% 25.8% 49.5% 30.1%
2016 22 97.0 3.96 5.04 23.6% 6.3% 10.5% 31.4% 47.6% 30.4%
2015 12 94.7 3.25 3.10 28.0% 7.3% 11.4% 36.8% 44.3% 31.6%

Smyly has struggled with consistency this season. He hasn’t been in the best of form recently, posting a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.9% in his last five starts. While the Padres are ranked fourth in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season, they no longer have Matt Kemp or Melvin Upton. Their lineup now has two or three lefties in it each night. At Smyly’s price, there isn’t a ton of downside, especially when you consider the fact that the Padres have the third highest strikeout rate against southpaws.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres come into tonight’s game with the second lowest implied team total on the board, which is yet another reason to like Drew Smyly in this matchup. The one plus for the Padres is that Smyly has allowed a .327 wOBA and 28 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Wil Myers and Jabari Blash are both intriguing one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.191 0.067 0.409 OF $3,100 OF $3,900
2 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.414 0.228 0.424 1B $3,800 1B $4,600
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.327 0.162 0.343 3B $3,000 2B/3B $4,300
4 Alex Dickerson LEFT 0.338 0.238 0.341 OF $2,800 OF $3,100
5 Jabari Blash RIGHT 0.357 0.364 0.367 OF $2,300 OF $2,400
6 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.327 0.158 0.204 C $2,600 C $2,500
7 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.308 0.153 0.196 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,200
8 Alexei Ramirez RIGHT 0.306 0.095 0.346 SS $2,200 SS $2,700
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.308 0.153 0.196 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,200
Team Averages 0.320 0.180 0.314

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Wil Myers, Jabari Blash

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

The Rays haven’t been great as a team against right-handed pitching, but they have a slight above-average team total tonight against Luis Perdomo. The one red flag in this matchup is Perdomo’s ground ball rate of 58.8%. I probably won’t have a ton of exposure to the Rays here, but Perdomo has allowed a .370+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.329 0.130 0.389 2B $3,500 2B $4,500
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.316 0.175 0.303 OF $2,800 OF $3,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.330 0.193 0.343 3B $3,800 3B $4,500
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.356 0.230 0.472 SS $3,800 SS $5,300
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.325 0.131 0.220 SS $2,600 3B $3,500
6 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.313 0.164 0.336 OF $2,700 OF $3,600
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.243 0.105 0.249 OF $2,300 OF $2,500
8 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.273 0.162 0.246 2B $2,300 1B/OF $3,500
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.185 0.053 0.161 C $2,000 C $2,600
Team Averages 0.297 0.149 0.302

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious