MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-16 05:59:49

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Cleveland
			Chris Archer							Carlos Carrasco
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-150							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.296	34.9%	7.9%	28.9%	45.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.301	0.305	37.2%	6.9%	25.3%	44.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.299	0.304	32.3%	7.7%	26.1%	46.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.274	0.274	31.3%	4.2%	25.4%	50.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Archer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,700	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 16	Salary Rank:		2 of 16	Salary Rank:		of 16
	2016	33	3.50	4.02	27.4%	7.9%	47.8%	32.8%	18.0%
	2017	8	3.41	3.04	27.3%	7.4%	39.1%	36.0%	15.8%

Oh how I wish this game was included in the main slate. I believe Cleveland has most of their home games start early in order to help with traffic while the Cavaliers are making their playoff run. Having a baseball and basketball game starting at the same time creates a lot of problems. Anyway, if you are playing in the all-day slate, you want to get your pitching exposure from this game. Archer is off to a hot start this season, posting a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. The matchup against the Indians isn’t ideal, as Cleveland takes a lot of walks and strikes out at a low rate. Even in a difficult matchup, Archer is the second best pitching option in the all-day slate.

Quick Breakdown: I may end up playing the all-day slate for the sole purpose of targeting one of these pitchers. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Carrasco over Archer.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carlos Carrasco
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$11,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 16	Salary Rank:		1 of 16	Salary Rank:		of 16
	2016	25	3.44	3.32	25.0%	5.7%	48.5%	36.4%	16.0%
	2017	7	3.08	1.86	26.4%	4.6%	46.2%	25.2%	16.8%

Carrasco may have an unsustainable BABIP (.211), but his peripheral numbers are still on point. Through seven starts, he has a 3.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate over 26%. He should be licking his chops for a matchup against the Rays, who have the highest strikeout rate (25.9%) of any team against right-handed pitching this season. Carrasco limits hard contact, he is pitching at home, and he is affordably priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is clearly the top ace on the schedule, but unfortunately, he isn’t available in the main slate.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is the top pitcher on the board today. If you are playing the all-day slate, he should be on your radar in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have some nice power against right-handed pitching (seven projected starters with an ISO above .175), but they are a high-strikeout offense that is facing a high-strikeout pitcher in Carlos Carrasco. In addition to the strikeout rate, Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA in the last two seasons. If you are joining all-day leagues, you aren’t joining them to target hitters against Carrasco.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.345	0.313	0.257	32.1%	6.6%	22.2%	35.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.331	0.321	0.229	36.3%	10.1%	25.1%	45.7%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.355	0.357	0.250	37.0%	6.0%	20.7%	33.2%	3B	$2,600	3B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.329	0.358	0.217	37.5%	9.6%	22.6%	42.4%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.329	0.302	0.176	30.3%	8.3%	31.3%	41.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.308	0.316	0.175	35.8%	10.9%	28.9%	36.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.309	0.307	0.212	44.6%	3.7%	31.3%	38.2%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.311	0.291	0.140	30.1%	9.7%	18.0%	45.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.247	0.269	0.132	31.2%	6.7%	32.2%	33.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians have a talented lineup, but they haven’t been nearly as good against right-handed pitching as you would think. They are currently ranked 17th in team wOBA and 15th in strikeout rate against righties. Chris Archer is not a pitcher that we want to target hitters against, especially with all of the gas cans on the mound in the later games. The Indians have struggled against Archer in the past and I won’t be going out of my way to target them tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.335	0.343	0.182	38.3%	9.3%	20.1%	37.6%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.352	0.351	0.169	27.7%	9.3%	12.3%	47.3%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.332	0.349	0.155	40.7%	7.1%	15.2%	46.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.381	0.405	0.270	38.1%	15.4%	16.2%	36.4%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.365	0.382	0.255	37.8%	11.1%	21.0%	37.6%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.358	0.329	0.162	25.7%	8.0%	9.9%	38.8%	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.333	0.309	0.166	28.1%	5.1%	16.5%	34.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.208	0.265	0.137	29.9%	4.4%	24.5%	39.7%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.290	0.279	0.119	32.8%	6.8%	24.1%	46.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Toronto
			Bartolo Colon							Mike Bolsinger
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-126							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.343	0.349	37.4%	5.3%	15.8%	36.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.370	29.3%	11.1%	22.2%	37.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.302	34.3%	3.2%	16.4%	48.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.390	42.6%	7.2%	18.1%	35.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Bartolo Colon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		13 of 16	Salary Rank:		12 of 16	Salary Rank:		10 of 16
	2016	33	4.37	3.43	16.2%	4.1%	43.2%	35.4%	16.2%
	2017	7	4.62	7.22	15.7%	5.4%	37.8%	38.5%	22.3%

Ladies and gentleman, get your barf bags out. The pitching options in the main slate are less than impressive and we are going to feel queasy with any selection that we make. It’s fitting that we start with Colon, who has given up 19 earned runs in his last two starts. After his great run a season ago, he should have gone out on top. He is a low strikeout pitcher that throws nothing but fastballs and gives up a lot of hard contact. He is an underdog tonight against the Blue Jays in a hitter-friendly ballpark. He is also pitching in an American League ballpark, so he doesn’t get the opportunity to face the opposing pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Colon is one of the many gas cans on the mound tonight. The pitching is scarce, but it’s not scarce enough to roster Bartolo.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Bolsinger
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		12 of 16	Salary Rank:		15 of 16	Salary Rank:		12 of 16
	2016	6	4.34	6.83	20.5%	7.4%	33.7%	41.9%	17.4%
	2017	1	5.68	3.18	16.7%	16.7%	50.0%	12.5%	25.0%

Bolsinger is making his second start of the season. He threw 92 pitches and struck out four hitters against the Indians while only giving up two runs in his first outing. I prefer Bolsinger over Bartolo Colon, but that is far from a ringing endorsement. He is facing a high-contact offense of the Braves, who have the eighth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. To make matters worse, Bolsinger is facing them in a hitter-friendly ballpark with the addition of the DH for Atlanta.

Quick Breakdown: Bolsinger isn’t a terrible play at the price, but there are better pitching options in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre and they get to utilize the DH since this game is being played in Toronto. They draw a favorable matchup against Mike Bolsinger, who has allowed a .370+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Bolsinger is a fly-ball pitcher, which could lead to a lot of lazy fly balls or it could lead to a lot of extra-base hits. Freddie Freeman continues to mash against right-handed pitching, boasting a .429 xwOBA against righties. Matt Kemp hitting streak came to an end, but he has reached base safely in 14 straight games. Ender Inciarte is a viable option batting lead-off and Tyler Flowers quietly hits right-handed pitching well (43% hard contact rate).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.316	0.295	0.117	27.2%	8.5%	13.9%	43.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.325	0.300	0.120	28.5%	3.1%	11.8%	48.2%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.428	0.429	0.315	42.9%	15.5%	21.4%	28.9%	1B	$4,900	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.330	0.346	0.218	36.2%	5.1%	24.0%	40.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.342	0.365	0.145	33.7%	12.0%	16.6%	40.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
6	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.287	0.312	0.135	30.1%	3.2%	16.4%	52.4%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
7	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.359	0.345	0.135	43.2%	8.9%	27.0%	45.5%	C	$2,700	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
8	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.322	0.331	0.125	24.9%	13.5%	16.8%	57.6%	2B	$2,700	2B/OF	$3,000	2B	$6,000
9	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.266	0.283	0.075	30.1%	9.9%	25.6%	46.5%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,400

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The only knock on the Blue Jays tonight is that they are going to be highly owned. Their offense showed some signs of life over the weekend and now they get to face Bartolo Colon at home. Colon is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak have all struggled against Colon in the past, but I am putting zero stock into their BvP. Colon rarely throws anything other than a fastball and those three all hit the fastball well. Kevin Pillar has really excelled in the lead-off spot and continues to go under-owned on a nightly basis. Ezeqiuel Carrera and Ryan Goins are not power hitters, but they are viable punt plays against Colon, especially if you are stacking the Blue Jays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.306	0.295	0.119	26.6%	5.5%	15.0%	48.2%	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
2	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.306	0.269	0.115	25.6%	7.1%	21.6%	56.2%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.349	0.362	0.212	39.3%	17.0%	22.9%	36.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,700
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.315	0.398	0.200	42.0%	8.4%	19.6%	48.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.311	0.338	0.181	41.6%	10.6%	34.2%	28.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,600
6	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.263	0.275	0.150	29.6%	6.8%	21.3%	48.5%	2B	$2,800	SS	$2,900	2B	$5,700
7	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.291	0.274	0.104	24.9%	6.0%	16.8%	50.8%	SS	$2,300	2B/3B	$3,000	2B	$6,000
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.322	0.305	0.158	30.3%	5.3%	19.5%	45.9%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.204	0.221	0.080	25.6%	4.2%	23.5%	53.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,300	C	$4,500

Elite Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak, Ryan Goins

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Miami
			Joe Musgrove							Dan Straily
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-102							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.317	32.3%	8.4%	19.6%	46.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	0.322	30.1%	13.3%	20.0%	35.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.316	31.2%	5.9%	20.2%	42.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.312	34.9%	6.6%	21.9%	31.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Joe Musgrove
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$15,600
	Salary Rank:		7 of 16	Salary Rank:		6 of 16	Salary Rank:		4 of 16
	2016	10	3.98	4.06	21.5%	6.3%	43.4%	34.6%	18.1%
	2017	7	4.58	5.02	17.4%	8.1%	44.3%	27.1%	17.0%

Musgrove has pitched at least six innings in three of his last four starts, but hasn’t shown the strikeout upside that we saw in his rookie campaign. His strikeout rate is down to 17%, but he could be trading strikeouts for a lower hard contact rate. He gets to play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark tonight and he gets to face the opposing pitcher, which usually isn’t the case since the Astros play in the American League. The Marlins aren’t a powerful offense against right-handed pitching, but they only have two projected starters with at least a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Musgrove is a viable contrarian play in tournaments, but there are better options in cash games.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:		4 of 16	Salary Rank:		5 of 16	Salary Rank:		3 of 16
	2016	31	4.67	3.76	20.5%	9.2%	32.0%	32.2%	14.8%
	2017	7	4.37	4.03	24.0%	11.7%	37.9%	36.1%	23.7%

Straily may have a 24% strikeout rate on the season, but that is aided by a 14 strikeout performance against the Padres in Petco. Outside of that start, he hasn’t had more than five strikeouts this season. He has a high walk rate and he allows a lot of hard contact. He is also facing an Astros’ offense that mashes right-handed pitching and has a low strikeout rate. People will be reeled in by his high strikeout rate, but this isn’t a good matchup for Straily.

Quick Breakdown: I will have very little exposure to the pitchers in this game, but I prefer Musgrove over Straily.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros spoiled the retirement of Derek Jeter’s number last night by hopping out to a six run lead in the first inning that the Yankees couldn’t overcome. They played two games yesterday and had to travel to Miami late last night, but I’m not overly concerned about them being too tired. They draw an exploitable matchup against Dan Straily, who has allowed a .312+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. There are better matchups in the slate, but the Astros are in a better spot than most people realize. The first five batters in this lineup are all viable targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.342	0.334	0.175	31.3%	11.1%	23.8%	50.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600	RF	$8,800
2	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.372	0.357	0.178	31.1%	9.0%	11.2%	37.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.384	0.369	0.180	31.8%	7.5%	10.0%	43.6%	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,000	2B	$9,900
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.366	0.372	0.195	38.0%	10.1%	21.2%	47.8%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,900	SS	$9,600
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.333	0.353	0.169	37.3%	11.6%	18.8%	35.1%	C	$2,900	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
6	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.338	0.295	0.135	27.9%	3.6%	11.5%	46.5%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
7	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.331	0.309	0.180	31.4%	7.5%	21.6%	35.6%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
8	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.339		0.122	20.5%	7.2%	9.5%	58.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,400
9	Joe Musgrove	RIGHT	0.000	0.128	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$8,000	P	$8,100	P	$15,600

Elite Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick (DK, FDRFT)

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick (FD), Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann or Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

This game has sneaky shootout potential, as the over/under is set at 9.0 runs, despite this being played in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Joe Musgrove has had nearly identical splits in the last two seasons allowing a .316+ xwOBA and a 31%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Derek Dietrich has been my go-to value target at second base on FanDuel (third base on DraftKings and FantasyDraft). He has nice power against right-handed pitching and is still priced as if he were hitting at the bottom of the order. I always give Christian Yelich a bump when he is playing against a pitcher with an average or below-average ground ball rate. He is sitting at a very affordable $3,300 on FanDuel. Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton can be thrown into the mix if you are looking to stack the Marlins in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.349	0.350	0.151	29.4%	8.5%	20.0%	36.8%	2B	$2,500	3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
2	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.338	0.310	0.114	30.7%	4.7%	16.5%	50.2%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.378	0.390	0.203	40.7%	12.0%	19.6%	54.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.335	0.338	0.184	37.5%	7.7%	19.9%	46.5%	OF	$4,000	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
5	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.327	0.335	0.227	37.8%	9.6%	28.7%	39.1%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.347	0.393	0.221	38.0%	12.8%	16.3%	45.5%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
7	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.127		0.200	33.3%	0.0%	16.7%	30.8%	2B	$2,000	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,800
8	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.032	0.073	0.000	12.0%	1.6%	57.4%	80.0%	P	$8,600	P	$8,200	P	$15,900
9	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.290	0.244	0.072	18.9%	5.7%	16.0%	57.1%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,100

Elite Plays – Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Arizona
			Zack Wheeler							Zack Godley
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-109							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.316	41.7%	9.8%	29.5%	41.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.372	0.324	24.8%	10.3%	20.0%	57.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.259	0.284	20.4%	11.0%	15.1%	64.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	0.341	37.7%	5.4%	18.1%	55.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Wheeler
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		6 of 16	Salary Rank:		8 of 16	Salary Rank:		6 of 16

	2017	6	4.10	4.18	21.6%	10.5%	55.6%	28.9%	24.4%

Wheeler is coming off of his best start of the season, striking out four batters in six innings against the Giants at home. Tonight’s matchup is a little higher up on the difficulty scale, as he has to face the Diamondbacks in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. It is expected to be warm and the wind is blowing out to right field at 15-18 MPH, which could make a big difference if the retractable roof is open. I’m bullish on Wheeler long-term, but he is an easy fade tonight.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward for Wheeler tonight against the Diamondbacks.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Godley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		9 of 16	Salary Rank:		13 of 16	Salary Rank:		11 of 16
	2016	9	4.16	6.39	17.9%	7.5%	53.8%	32.1%	17.9%
	2017	2	2.93	2.25	26.7%	8.9%	75.0%	31.0%	10.3%

I wish I would have taken my own advice and used Godley as a low-owned tournament option in his last start against the Tigers. He picked up the win and struck out six batters in seven innings of work. Godley has had a high ground ball rate and a high strikeout rate at every level that he has pitched it. Through two starts this season, it looks like he may finally be comfortable pitching in the majors. His matchup against the Mets is far from ideal, but he has held left-handed hitters to a 25% hard contact rate in his last 11 starts. If he can limit the damage to the five lefties, he could surprise some people with another quality start again tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Godley isn’t my favorite pitching option in the slate, but he’s a viable SP2 for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Chase Field, especially if the roof is open tonight. It is going to be warm in Arizona and we have a helping wind blowing out to right field. Even though I will have a lineup or two with Zack Godley in it, I will not be shying away from the Mets’ offense. The first six batters in their projected lineup all have at least a .325 xwOBA and at least a .170 ISO against right-handed pitching. Michael Conforto is the one hitter that I want to highlight, as he has a .368 xwOBA with a 42% hard contact rate against righties in the last two seasons. He also hit third last night, which could help drive up his RBI count.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.375	0.368	0.260	42.4%	11.5%	23.2%	35.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,800
2	T.J. Rivera	RIGHT	0.408	0.325	0.198	26.6%	4.8%	8.2%	39.8%	1B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,200	3B	$6,300
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.379	0.373	0.299	41.8%	9.2%	20.2%	35.8%	OF	$4,000	1B/OF	$4,700	RF	$9,300
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.330	0.351	0.171	34.6%	9.3%	19.2%	36.7%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,100
5	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.327	0.328	0.221	35.3%	12.4%	19.4%	34.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,700
6	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.322	0.365	0.187	35.5%	11.9%	22.7%	34.7%	1B	$2,600	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,800
7	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.278	0.265	0.125	24.3%	7.4%	17.2%	37.2%	3B	$2,900	3B/SS	$4,200	SS	$8,000
8	Rene Rivera	RIGHT	0.260	0.305	0.094	29.6%	4.6%	24.7%	47.7%	C	$2,500	C	$2,600	C	$5,200
9	Zack Wheeler	RIGHT	0.257	0.209	0.100	0.0%	8.3%	33.3%	33.3%	P	$8,300	P	$7,200	P	$14,400

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce, Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have an interesting matchup against Zack Wheeler. While we love targeting Arizona hitters at home, Wheeler has been incredibly tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .284 xwOBA with a 20% hard contact rate. Interestingly enough, he has a higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate against righties, but the 55% ground ball rate is tough to look past. For that reason, Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas are calculated fades that could pay off in tournaments. I love the left-handed bats of Gregor Blanco (if he’s batting leadoff), David Peralta (dealing with a leg injury), and Jake Lamb. A mini three-man stack may be the best way to approach the Diamondbacks tonight. Chris Herrmann would also be viable at catcher if he is in the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.267	0.276	0.079	22.8%	10.3%	19.2%	48.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	LF	$6,000
2	David Peralta	LEFT	0.336	0.312	0.170	36.8%	5.6%	20.4%	53.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.380	0.379	0.205	38.1%	14.4%	21.0%	46.7%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,200	1B	$10,200
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.379	0.365	0.275	40.4%	10.4%	25.2%	43.1%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,200
5	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.321	0.323	0.223	39.2%	4.8%	24.1%	47.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,600
6	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.352	0.322	0.172	32.6%	6.7%	20.7%	48.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.306	0.295	0.137	32.3%	4.1%	21.4%	50.0%	SS	$3,200	OF/SS	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
8	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.192	0.202	0.067	23.4%	1.4%	29.7%	39.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,300	C	$4,500
9	Zack Godley	RIGHT	0.063	0.099	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	40.0%	75.0%	P	$7,500	P	$6,300	P	$12,600

Elite Plays – Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Herrmann

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at LA Angels – 10:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								LA Angels
			Mike Pelfrey							Jesse Chavez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAA-180							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.377	0.388	35.7%	9.1%	10.6%	45.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.329	0.304	25.2%	9.5%	20.5%	46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.365	0.347	25.8%	7.8%	9.1%	56.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.338	37.2%	5.6%	22.2%	40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Pelfrey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		16 of 16	Salary Rank:		16 of 16	Salary Rank:		14 of 16
	2016	22	5.25	5.07	10.4%	8.5%	52.2%	31.2%	20.1%
	2017	4	5.99	5.21	7.1%	8.2%	40.6%	30.0%	25.7%

Pelfrey is one of those pitchers that we always want to stack against. He has a 7.1% strikeout rate on the season. I don’t care if he induces a high ground ball rate, when you are only striking out 7% of batters, runs are going to be scored in bunches. Pelfrey has gotten a little lucky this season with a .265 BABIP, especially when you consider the fact that his ground ball rate is down 12% from where is was a year ago. The Angels may not have the most potent offense, but they make good contact and take a lot of walks.

Quick Breakdown: Nothing against Pelfrey, but I wouldn’t roster him if he was free.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jesse Chavez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		11 of 16	Salary Rank:		7 of 16	Salary Rank:		5 of 16
	2016	0	3.59	4.43	22.3%	6.4%	42.9%	31.2%	16.1%
	2017	7	4.33	4.29	20.1%	8.6%	43.1%	34.2%	16.3%

Chavez could end up being the chalk pitcher in the slate tonight. He has pitched pretty well this season, posting a 4.33 SIERA with a league-average strikeout rate. He is pitching at home (which is a big boost in this ballpark) and he is listed as a sizable favorite. He also gets to face one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching in the White Sox. There are times to fade the chalk and times when you just have to eat it and look to differentiate elsewhere. This may be a good time to play the chalk. Chavez has struggled a bit with right-handed power hitters, but who are we concerned about in this White Sox lineup outside of Jose Abreu?

Quick Breakdown: Chavez is my top pitching option in the slate, narrowly beating out Chase Anderson.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

If you can find a viable pivot off of Jesse Chavez and want a leverage play against him, Jose Abreu appears to be in a great spot. The ballpark obviously isn’t great, but Chavez struggles with right-handed hitters, allowing a .338 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate. Abreu’s batted ball profile also lines up well for this matchup, as Chavez has a below-average ground ball rate (41%) to righties. I’m on #TeamChavez tonight, but don’t mind using Abreu in a tournament lineup or two.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.329	0.329	0.143	28.1%	7.8%	9.9%	44.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
2	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.286	0.257	0.117	23.4%	4.8%	23.2%	50.7%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,400
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.342	0.343	0.161	31.0%	6.2%	17.6%	44.9%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,300
4	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.322	0.324	0.154	30.0%	6.5%	25.2%	53.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.314	0.315	0.217	30.8%	9.4%	22.9%	38.7%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,600
6	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.361	0.347	0.340	38.5%	4.0%	44.0%	26.9%	1B	$2,700	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,600
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.288	0.274	0.140	30.1%	3.3%	26.6%	50.7%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,600
8	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.282	0.298	0.032	14.0%	12.0%	12.7%	41.1%	C	$2,600	C	$2,400	C	$4,800
9	Leury Garcia	SWITCH	0.341	0.295	0.216	23.8%	1.8%	17.4%	57.3%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,600	CF	$5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu

Stackability – RED

LA Angels

The Angels may have the best matchup in the slate. Mike Pelfrey has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball and he is no longer generating an above-average strikeout rate. It’s only a matter of time before an opposing offense tees off on him. To his credit, Pelfrey does induce a lot of soft contact, but I still love the Angels’ offense in this spot. Mike Trout has homered in three straight games and four of his last six. He is arguably the top batter in the slate. Kole Calhoun and Luis Valbuena are elite plays as well and I get the feeling that this three-man stack is going to be fairly popular.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.250	0.255	0.091	21.9%	4.2%	9.2%	57.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.433	0.430	0.273	40.5%	16.3%	20.8%	39.4%	OF	$5,400	OF	$5,400	CF	$10,500
3	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.315	0.358	0.163	35.0%	7.3%	13.4%	44.9%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,800
4	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.357	0.340	0.217	38.8%	13.8%	24.8%	35.0%	1B	$2,600	1B/3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
5	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.328	0.337	0.153	34.6%	9.7%	19.0%	38.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
6	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.325	0.293	0.090	22.7%	10.1%	18.0%	63.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
7	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.332	0.331	0.175	32.1%	4.9%	17.6%	40.7%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
8	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.295	0.303	0.082	26.9%	5.9%	9.6%	54.9%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
9	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.273	0.289	0.127	27.3%	11.5%	23.3%	47.4%	C	$2,400	C	$2,400	C	$4,800

MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 15th

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Stackability Rating System:

Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak, Ryan Goins

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick (DK, FDRFT)

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick (FD), Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann or Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce, Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Herrmann

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at LA Angels – 10:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu

Stackability – RED

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Luis Valbuena, Kole Calhoun

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, C.J. Cron

Stackability – YELLOW

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