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MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-23 03:08:53

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Colorado at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Colorado Philadelphia
coloradomlb Jeff Hoffman philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-115 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.371 0.373 36.2% 12.1% 12.1% 47.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.315 30.9% 7.0% 18.4% 36.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.379 0.330 35.7% 9.4% 24.7% 44.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.270 0.283 30.0% 4.6% 23.5% 43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Hoffman
jeff-hoffman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 13 of 18 Salary Rank: 13 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 5.22 4.88 15.0% 11.6% 50.0% 34.3% 20.4%
2017 1 2.86 5.40 34.5% 6.9% 23.5% 47.1% 17.7%

Hoffman was a part of the Troy Tulowitzki deal and was the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft. He struggled in his first six major league starts last season, but posted a 24% strikeout rate with an above-average ground ball rate in his last full season in the minors. In his lone spot start this season, he struck out eight batters against the Dodgers. Hoffman is still an unknown quantity at the major league level, but he carries some appeal as a GPP flier in large field tournaments. The Phillies are ranked in the bottom ten in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: There is certainly some risk in this small ballpark, but Hoffman is worth a look as a low-owned tournament play.

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.05 3.65 20.6% 5.2% 40.7% 30.8% 20.0%
2017 8 4.40 4.53 21.3% 8.9% 37.2% 29.1% 14.2%

Eickhoff’s numbers are very similar to where they were a year ago, but he hasn’t been as lucky in terms of his batted ball profile, which helps explain why his ERA is nearly a full run higher. Much like his opponent, I see Eickhoff as a low-owned tournament play tonight against the Rockies. He really struggles against left-handed hitters, which brings Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez into play, but the good news is that he should face six or seven righties in this lineup. If Eickhoff can pitch around Blackmon and Gonzalez, there is no reason to think he can’t pitch well here.

Quick Breakdown: Eickhoff is too risky to use in cash games, but he does carry some tournament appeal against a right-handed heavy Rockies’ lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

If you read the blurb about Jerad Eickhoff, then you probably already know where I am going with the Rockies’ offense. Eickhoff has been tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .283 xwOBA and a 30% hard contact rate, but he has struggled quite a bit against left-handed hitters. Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are both viable targets in this small ballpark. Nolan Arenado is also an intriguing pivot play at third base off of the more popular Kris Bryant.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.406 0.373 0.276 38.8% 7.0% 17.3% 30.7% OF $4,400 OF $5,400 CF $10,400
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.371 0.374 0.123 33.0% 9.5% 12.5% 53.1% 2B $2,900 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.376 0.344 0.267 36.9% 7.9% 14.3% 36.0% 3B $4,100 3B $5,000 3B $9,600
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.394 0.332 0.228 30.9% 9.6% 24.5% 40.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
5 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.353 0.343 0.188 35.4% 10.1% 18.3% 43.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.322 0.305 0.156 30.0% 6.1% 25.5% 55.4% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,400 LF $8,400
7 Pat Valaika RIGHT 0.339 0.193 0.302 40.0% 0.0% 31.8% 44.8% SS $2,500 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.332 0.288 0.137 23.1% 10.1% 21.8% 41.5% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Jeff Hoffman RIGHT 0.000 0.121 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 100.0% P $5,700 P $6,300 P $12,400

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies are an offense that you want to stack or stay away from completely. Their matchup against Jeff Hoffman could produce a wide range of outcomes, which makes Hoffman interesting and a Phillies’ stack interesting. Individually, there aren’t any hitters that stand out in this matchup, as the Phillies don’t have a single batter with an xwOBA over .330 against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.340 0.309 0.110 25.2% 11.3% 18.6% 53.5% 2B $3,200 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.306 0.275 0.178 27.8% 5.1% 21.3% 40.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.305 0.297 0.147 31.3% 9.8% 30.8% 50.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.327 0.326 0.210 37.5% 5.5% 22.6% 40.7% 1B $3,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
5 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.334 0.307 0.148 28.8% 8.8% 20.7% 43.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.296 0.323 0.153 29.0% 6.6% 15.9% 44.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.325 0.325 0.192 37.8% 10.2% 26.8% 38.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.302 0.318 0.170 32.4% 6.6% 28.0% 47.1% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,400
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.160 0.214 0.056 8.9% 1.8% 16.4% 60.5% P $7,200 P $6,900 P $13,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Aaron Altherr, Tommy Joseph, Odubel Herrera, Michael Saunders

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City NY Yankees
kansascitymlb Jason Vargas nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-175 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.296 23.7% 2.3% 9.3% 42.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.298 33.5% 8.2% 28.8% 46.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.232 0.253 29.6% 6.2% 25.6% 35.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.303 30.4% 5.0% 26.7% 47.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Vargas
jason-vargas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 7 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.96 2.25 23.4% 6.4% 36.4% 33.3% 15.2%
2017 8 3.83 2.03 22.5% 5.2% 36.8% 27.0% 19.7%

Vargas is having a tremendous season, but a 2.03 ERA is unsustainable. His LOB% is a bit high and his HR/FB rate is too low and both should regress toward his career averages. Vargas is coming off of his worst start of the season and it was against this same Yankees’ offense. He now has to go on the road and face them again in a much better ballpark for offensive production. The high strikeout rate and low walk rate are appealing, but there is more risk than potential reward for Vargas in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Vargas can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Michael Pineda
michael-pineda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $10,500 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.40 4.82 27.4% 7.0% 45.8% 32.7% 17.2%
2017 8 2.84 3.42 28.8% 4.2% 50.4% 27.8% 13.5%

This is basically a repeat of last week’s game between these two teams, only this time the game will be played in Yankee Stadium. Pineda wasn’t all that sharp in that last start, allowing three earned runs and striking out five batters over six innings of work. While his price has come up and while he sees a negative ballpark shift, he is still my favorite pitching option in tonight’s slate. It’s hard to overlook a pitcher with a SIERA under 3.00, a strikeout rate above 28%, and a walk rate below 5%. The Royals are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and we know the Yankees’ offense can give him plenty of run support to work with.

Quick Breakdown: From a raw projection standpoint, Pineda and Greinke are close, but Pineda is significantly cheaper across the industry. He’s my ace of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The one problem that Michael Pineda has struggled with throughout his career is allowing too many home runs, which is the main reason why we always see such a big difference between his ERA and his SIERA. The league average HR/FB rate is around 10%, but Pineda’s was 15% in 2014, 17% in 2015, and it is all the way up to 25% this season. Ultimately, he should see some regression in his favor, but the high number of home runs allowed is clearly a trend. Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez are intriguing one-off targets given their power against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.265 0.250 0.078 20.9% 3.6% 16.1% 47.1% SS $2,200 SS $2,400 SS $4,800
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.354 0.364 0.260 36.4% 7.1% 14.6% 35.8% 3B $3,700 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.314 0.300 0.092 28.2% 7.5% 20.5% 49.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.349 0.355 0.162 35.2% 10.0% 18.1% 57.0% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.328 0.311 0.209 37.4% 3.6% 21.0% 34.2% C $3,100 C $3,300 C $6,400
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.365 0.357 0.200 31.6% 8.9% 23.2% 34.2% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.325 0.339 0.283 39.9% 9.8% 31.1% 26.2% 1B $2,700 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
8 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.279 0.285 0.116 31.8% 4.6% 20.7% 42.9% 2B $2,700 2B $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.293 0.319 0.140 35.6% 10.4% 27.1% 39.7% OF $2,600 OF $2,800 LF $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

As long as the weather holds up tonight, the Yankees will be a popular offense to target. They have a few hitters that absolutely mash left-handed pitching, they are playing at home, and they are facing a pitcher that they knocked around for six runs in four innings last week. Jason Vargas is a fly-ball pitcher that relies on a high strikeout rate and inducing soft contact. Surprisingly, the Yankees strikeout at a low rate and have five batters with at least a 36% hard contact rate against southpaws. I like the spot at home, but prefer the three-man mini stack of Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, and Aaron Judge instead of a complete Yankees’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.279 0.267 0.085 24.7% 6.3% 17.3% 44.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.350 0.418 0.303 42.2% 16.3% 27.5% 40.0% C $3,800 C $4,700 C $9,300
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.357 0.370 0.274 43.6% 10.2% 18.6% 45.3% OF $3,300 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.328 0.325 0.158 31.5% 6.0% 18.5% 46.9% 2B $3,800 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.364 0.367 0.256 39.1% 18.5% 37.0% 34.8% OF $4,500 OF $5,000 RF $9,600
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.284 0.309 0.085 28.0% 7.3% 15.9% 45.2% 3B $3,100 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.360 0.295 0.135 22.2% 3.7% 9.1% 37.9% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.261 0.295 0.148 35.8% 8.2% 19.9% 45.5% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.343 0.370 0.280 36.9% 11.5% 28.8% 37.8% 1B $2,600 1B $3,900 1B $7,800

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Minnesota Baltimore
minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-135 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.391 0.360 31.9% 9.2% 14.0% 48.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.392 0.329 33.0% 12.3% 21.9% 42.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.341 31.7% 8.2% 16.6% 48.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.327 30.8% 11.3% 16.8% 52.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 17 of 18 Salary Rank: 18 of 18 Salary Rank: 18 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.73 5.07 15.9% 8.4% 48.8% 31.0% 18.6%
2017 6 5.42 8.20 12.4% 10.1% 47.4% 35.7% 17.4%

Gibson is having one of the worst seasons of any starting pitcher in baseball. In six starts, he has a 5.42 SIERA with a 12% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate. He has also allowed a 36% hard contact rate and has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate. I know the pitching in this slate isn’t great, but Gibson should not be on your radar in cash games or tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid, avoid, avoid.

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 7 5.37 6.52 16.6% 13.1% 46.7% 34.4% 18.9%

Jimenez is also having a bad year, posting a 5.37 SIERA with a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. He has allowed more hard contact this season and he is routinely one of the worst pitchers in baseball at holding runners. No matter how you slice it, Ubaldo is no longer a pitcher that should be on our radar in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Both pitchers in this game should be avoided like the plague.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

There are plenty of reasons to like the Twins’ offense tonight. Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed a .327+ xwOBA and a 31%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He has a low strikeout rate and a high walk and he doesn’t hold runners well. In fact, the number of stolen bases he allows per nine innings (1.6) is the worst of any pitcher in the slate. The Twins see a small ballpark bump playing in Camden Yards and are viable plays in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.350 0.325 0.239 32.6% 9.1% 19.5% 38.6% 2B $3,800 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.341 0.391 0.134 33.6% 14.1% 14.3% 47.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.355 0.349 0.236 42.8% 12.2% 36.7% 33.3% 3B $3,900 3B $4,700 IF/OF $9,200
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.349 0.323 0.216 35.4% 10.8% 18.4% 42.9% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
5 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.327 0.304 0.258 32.0% 11.1% 32.2% 33.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.311 0.283 0.184 32.6% 3.3% 23.8% 44.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.313 0.302 0.116 24.3% 7.7% 12.6% 35.4% SS $3,000 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.324 0.323 0.190 36.1% 13.2% 31.8% 42.6% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.279 0.234 0.171 23.3% 6.5% 36.6% 35.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, Jason Castro

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The only issue that I could possibly see with the Orioles tonight is Kyle Gibson 48% ground ball rate. The rest of his stats favor Baltimore, including a 10% walk rate and a 36% hard contact rate. Over the last two seasons, Gibson has allowed a .340+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. When you look at batted ball profiles, this is actually a great matchup for the Orioles, as seven of their nine projected starters have above-average fly-ball rates, which will help negate Gibson’s high ground ball rate. An Orioles’ stack is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.344 0.376 0.176 33.8% 11.2% 20.4% 45.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.343 0.342 0.192 32.7% 5.6% 16.0% 43.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.348 0.359 0.241 34.9% 7.0% 18.8% 37.8% 3B $4,100 3B $4,800 3B $9,200
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.351 0.359 0.265 43.1% 14.1% 34.5% 36.8% 1B $3,900 1B $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.374 0.381 0.267 37.9% 7.3% 23.8% 40.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.319 0.302 0.142 34.4% 6.4% 26.7% 39.4% C $3,700 C $4,100 C $8,100
7 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.350 0.346 0.118 29.3% 9.7% 15.2% 52.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.334 0.320 0.197 29.5% 3.0% 19.3% 42.0% 2B $3,300 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.278 0.286 0.108 29.9% 4.7% 16.8% 42.9% SS $2,400 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Welington Castillo

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland Cincinnati
clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin cincinnatimlb Scott Feldman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-113 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.313 37.3% 2.3% 16.1% 48.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.328 23.6% 9.1% 14.8% 49.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.365 0.349 32.0% 3.0% 17.1% 41.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.283 29.4% 5.7% 18.9% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 8 of 18 Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.24 4.40 16.3% 2.8% 43.8% 33.9% 16.4%
2017 8 3.60 6.86 18.3% 2.3% 49.6% 36.2% 10.1%

The pitching in this slate seems to get worse and worse with every game. Tomlin is one of those pitchers that I refuse to roster, because his downside is always greater than his upside. He has a below-average strikeout rate and he allows a ton of hard contact, especially to left-handed hitters (37%). Surprisingly enough, the rest of his splits are actually worse against righties. So basically, he is awful against righties and allows a lot of hard contact to lefties. He gets a resounding NO from me in a matchup against the Reds in Great American Ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Tomlin in all formats.

Scott Feldman
scott-feldman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.07 3.97 16.6% 5.6% 49.8% 24.6% 21.2%
2017 9 4.71 4.29 18.2% 9.6% 42.9% 30.9% 22.8%

As I’ve mentioned time and time again, Feldman isn’t as bad as people want him to be. If you take away the name and look at his numbers, you will see that he is a very average pitcher. He doesn’t strike many hitters out, but he is great at limiting hard contact and inducing soft contact. This makes him a better pitcher in actual baseball than in fantasy baseball. He’s not a pitcher that is on my radar tonight, but I will have less exposure to the Indians’ offense than most.

Quick Breakdown: There isn’t enough strikeout upside to justify the Feldman play in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are ranked 11th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. While that’s not terrible, I expect them to climb up those rankings as the season progresses. If you look at their lineup, they have eight batters with at least a .340 wOBA against righties. Cleveland sees a favorable ballpark shift tonight playing in Great American Ballpark, which yields a lot of home runs each season. The issue here is the matchup against Scott Feldman, who has held lefties to a 24% hard contact rate and righties to a .283 xwOBA. I’m fine with a few different one-off targets in this lineup, but I don’t see the Indians as a great team to stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.340 0.344 0.184 38.0% 9.3% 19.4% 37.7% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.351 0.349 0.169 27.6% 8.9% 13.0% 47.1% SS $3,600 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.352 0.354 0.164 37.5% 8.9% 13.3% 47.1% OF $3,900 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.363 0.380 0.258 37.6% 11.0% 21.2% 37.8% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.357 0.332 0.163 26.0% 8.1% 9.6% 38.4% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.338 0.311 0.183 28.7% 5.5% 16.8% 34.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.227 0.264 0.154 30.2% 4.2% 24.5% 38.5% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.444 0.339 0.364 40.0% 21.4% 42.9% 40.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
9 Josh Tomlin RIGHT 0.424 0.113 0.200 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $7,600 P $7,200 P $14,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds may be slight underdogs tonight at home, but I would rather target their offense over the Indians’ offense. Josh Tomlin has allowed a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters and a .349 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He doesn’t walk many batters, but he has a below-average strikeout rate. The Reds are playing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and may end up getting overlooked in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.309 0.262 0.086 19.7% 9.1% 19.5% 46.2% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.339 0.304 0.175 30.6% 9.2% 16.4% 38.9% SS $3,500 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.426 0.442 0.259 40.7% 17.6% 14.5% 37.1% 1B $4,500 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.323 0.322 0.247 36.8% 5.8% 26.7% 33.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.320 0.320 0.159 34.3% 7.9% 23.6% 39.7% 3B $3,300 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.341 0.328 0.196 34.8% 7.7% 22.0% 51.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.313 0.302 0.081 18.7% 2.2% 13.2% 44.3% 2B $2,400 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.316 0.332 0.129 31.8% 9.3% 14.5% 46.0% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Scott Feldman RIGHT 0.000 0.069 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 42.9% 40.0% P $6,900 P $5,900 P $11,600

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

LA Angels Tampa Bay
laangelsmlb J.C. Ramirez tampabaymlb Jake Odorizzi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -113 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.300 25.4% 5.7% 16.6% 50.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.276 31.4% 6.5% 25.5% 38.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.285 31.8% 7.1% 20.4% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.347 34.5% 6.8% 18.3% 34.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.C. Ramirez
j-c-ramirez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.81 4.35 17.6% 6.6% 54.9% 26.4% 21.2%
2017 7 4.02 3.97 20.3% 6.3% 42.0% 32.9% 17.9%

While Michael Pineda and Zack Greinke are the two clear aces at the top, most people will look to this game for their SP2. We have one offense that has little to no power (Angels) and another that has the highest strikeout rate in baseball (Rays). Ramirez has cooled off a bit in his last couple of starts, but he’s shown nice strikeout upside in his first stint as a major league starter. He has an electric fastball and he draws an a boom or bust matchup against the Rays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Ramirez is cheap across the industry and is viable as an SP2 in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: The Rays have good power numbers against right-handed pitching, but also have the highest strikeout rate. Ramirez offers good upside at his price point.

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.21 3.69 21.5% 7.0% 36.6% 33.7% 16.8%
2017 7 4.11 3.16 20.3% 4.9% 31.4% 31.1% 14.2%

Odorizzi has a league-average strikeout rate, good command, and a high fly-ball rate. Him home ballpark (Tropicana Field) is perfect for him and we’ve seen that translate into some serious home/road splits in his career. At home, his strikeout rate goes up 2%, his SIERA goes down a full run, and his wOBA allowed dips from .331 to .279. He still struggles with home runs, but that’s going to happen when you have such a high fly-ball rate. Tonight’s matchup against the Angels is decent, as Los Angels is ranked 21st in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. The Angels have a low strikeout rate, but Odorizzi appears to be a very safe SP2 tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Both are in play as SP2s, but given their matchups, Ramirez has more upside and Odorizzi has a higher floor.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

With so many gas cans taking the mound tonight, I will have very limited exposure to the offenses in this game. Jake Odorizzi is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .347 xwOBA with a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Mike Trout is an excellent one-off target for cash games and tournaments and I don’t mind C.J. Cron or Albert Pujols if you need a cheap first baseman.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.334 0.294 0.094 22.5% 11.0% 17.4% 63.9% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.327 0.339 0.154 34.4% 9.7% 18.8% 38.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
3 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.435 0.432 0.280 41.1% 16.9% 20.9% 39.5% OF $5,200 OF $5,500 CF $10,800
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.317 0.362 0.160 35.1% 7.7% 13.2% 44.4% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.344 0.331 0.205 36.9% 14.2% 25.2% 36.6% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,600
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.302 0.305 0.089 27.2% 6.1% 9.2% 54.9% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
7 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.332 0.333 0.171 32.6% 5.2% 17.7% 40.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.282 0.284 0.140 31.1% 9.8% 30.1% 38.7% 2B $2,200 2B $2,700 2B $5,400
9 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.278 0.295 0.131 28.7% 10.7% 22.1% 46.5% C $2,600 C $2,400 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays’ matchup against J.C. Ramirez doesn’t look great on paper. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA. However, Ramirez has allowed at least two earned runs in five of his last seven starts and his strikeout rate appears to be trending in the wrong direction. The power left-handed bats of Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison are viable one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.356 0.325 0.276 33.3% 6.6% 22.5% 34.8% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.314 0.290 0.142 29.8% 10.0% 18.1% 46.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.356 0.355 0.249 37.2% 5.9% 20.7% 34.1% 3B $3,000 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.332 0.360 0.221 37.4% 10.0% 22.9% 42.2% 1B $3,800 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.328 0.305 0.174 30.9% 9.0% 31.8% 41.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.305 0.308 0.174 36.4% 10.6% 29.9% 38.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.311 0.304 0.206 42.8% 3.8% 31.5% 38.9% SS $3,000 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
8 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.330 0.296 0.125 29.6% 14.6% 29.2% 48.0% OF $2,100 2B/3B $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.253 0.270 0.138 31.5% 7.0% 32.1% 33.9% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious