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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 29th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-04-30 02:53:27

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Mets at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

NY Mets Washington
Article Image Zack Wheeler Article Image Stephen Strasburg
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-205 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.406 44.8% 8.9% 24.4% 37.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.255 23.6% 8.3% 30.8% 45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.160 21.9% 4.6% 22.7% 53.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 29.3% 6.1% 29.1% 39.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Wheeler
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 3.50 5.40 23.6% 6.7% 45.9% 32.8% 23.0%

As usual, we have a full schedule today with 15 games on the menu. How those games are divided somewhat depends on where you are playing. DraftKings is running seven games early, and eight games as their main slate tonight. On FanDuel, it’s a five-game early slate, two-game afternoon slate (CHC/BOS and SEA/CLE) and then an eight-game main slate. When I refer to the early slate, I’m talking about the first seven games while the main slate is the final eight games.

We kick things off with Zack Wheeler and the Mets facing off against the Nationals. Wheeler is making his fifth start this season after missing two full seasons with injuries. Wheeler is sporting a 5.4 SIERA and a 3.5 ERA. He’s had a respectable 23.6% K rate and 6.7% BB rate. There will be plenty of opportunities to roster Wheeler as long as he remains in the mid-range. Today isn’t one of those days. The Nationals are the best offense in baseball according to both wOBA and wRC+. There’s no reason to fire up Wheeler in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: – Wheeler is not in play against one of the best offenses in baseball.

Stephen Strasburg
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,500
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.18 3.60 30.6% 7.4% 39.5% 26.6% 21.4%
2017 4 2.91 2.89 26.1% 6.3% 56.0% 26.7% 24.0%

Stephen Strasburg is one of the top pitchers in MLB. The Mets tagged Max Scherzer for five earned runs last night but I’m not scared to fire up Strasburg in this spot. So far this season, Strasburg’s strikeout are down just slightly but his ground balls are up quite a bit and he’s generating soft contact at 24%. The Mets have a couple of batters that hit right-handed pitching well. They aren’t a great offense right now though. They have a wRC+ of 72 against right-handed pitching which ranks 29 of 30 in MLB. For those not familiar, wRC+ is a park-adjusted stat that measures how good a team is at creating runs. A score of 100 is supposed to be average.

Quick Breakdown: Even as the most expensive pitcher going on most sites, Strasburg is the top option for cash games and a play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have the lowest implied team total on the early slate. While they had an offensive outburst last night (mostly powered by Travis d’Arnaud) there’s no one that interests me in this spot. Using batters against Strasburg is nearly always going to be a negative expectation option. There are plenty of other ways to differentiate today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.360 0.246 42.0% 11.0% 24.2% 36.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.339 0.196 35.0% 6.8% 18.2% 35.6% SS $3,000 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.373 0.292 39.7% 8.9% 20.1% 35.9% OF $3,500 1B/OF $3,600 RF $7,200
4 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.320 0.163 34.4% 9.8% 19.5% 35.8% 2B $3,000 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
5 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.336 0.226 36.0% 12.8% 19.8% 35.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
6 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.277 0.084 32.3% 6.1% 17.1% 51.4% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,000
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.262 0.112 23.7% 6.8% 20.1% 35.6% 3B $2,300 3B $3,700 SS $7,200
8 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.397 0.200 23.6% 3.6% 9.5% 42.3% 3B $2,000 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
9 Zack Wheeler RIGHT 0.243 0.143 0.0% 12.5% 37.5% 25.0% P $7,200 P $7,500 P $14,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Washington

Even though I won’t be using Zack Wheeler today I don’t think he’s a terrible pitcher by any means. He’s not anywhere near the top of the list of pitchers we want to pick on. The Nationals have a couple of bats that hit right-handed pitching well. Trea Turner is sporting a .409 wOBA against right-handers. How you deploy the Nationals somewhat depends on what site you are playing on. On DraftKings, the Nationals are priced based on the price of their opposing pitcher. Because Wheeler is somewhat cheap the algorithm assumes he’s worse than he actually is. On FanDuel and most other sites, the Nationals are normal priced.

The one option that does jump out as a value play is Michael Taylor. He’s $2,100 on FD and $3,300 on DK. If he were to land in a favorable lineup spot I might have some interest. He only owns a .241 wOBA against right-handers though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.409 0.257 34.8% 4.5% 18.5% 43.0% SS $4,300 SS $5,000 IF/OF $9,900
2 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.330 0.169 34.8% 8.6% 18.4% 37.5% 3B $2,600 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.372 0.224 35.5% 18.9% 15.5% 38.9% OF $5,000 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.417 0.257 39.7% 5.6% 9.4% 35.0% 2B $4,200 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.299 0.162 33.8% 5.3% 24.4% 45.2% 1B $3,600 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
6 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.295 0.136 31.5% 10.7% 24.8% 42.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.316 0.177 31.9% 7.1% 17.5% 37.2% C $2,800 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.241 0.109 33.0% 5.4% 29.2% 43.9% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.149 0.022 9.3% 3.8% 15.1% 76.5% P $10,600 P $11,600 P $22,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays -Trea Turner and Michael Taylor

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
Article Image Ubaldo Jimenez Article Image Michael Pineda
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-175 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.374 30.7% 12.2% 21.5% 43.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 34.9% 8.4% 28.5% 44.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 31.5% 11.0% 16.8% 51.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 30.2% 5.2% 27.3% 47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 4 5.68 5.95 13.3% 13.3% 42.2% 33.3% 21.2%

This is a good spot to mention that you need to check weather today. I typically write each game with the assumption that the game will play and then allow you to make your own decision based on any weather risk. The Yankees/Orioles game isn’t at risk of getting rained out but it does appear the wind is going to be blowing out at somewhere around 10-15 MPH. Ubaldo Jimenez has seen his K% decrease to 13.3% and his BB% increase to 13.3%. That’s not good against a Yankees offense that is third in wRC+ this season against right-handers at 123. Jimenez also struggled against left-handers last season allowing a .378 wOBA (.308 to right-handers). Against a potent Yankees offense, with the wind blowing out, there simply isn’t enough upside to justify the risk on Jimenez.

Quick Breakdown: – You might see Jimenez recommended as an option elsewhere in the industry. I’m just not seeing it though. His SIERA and ERA nearly match, telling us the pitcher we’ve seen this season is who Jimenez is right now. If we lose the Cardinals and Reds game, the Yankees offense might be one of the better stack options on the early slate.

Michael Pineda
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $10,100 Salary: $19,600
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.40 4.82 27.4% 7.0% 45.8% 32.7% 17.2%
2017 4 2.32 3.86 31.5% 3.3% 47.5% 28.3% 13.3%

Deciding how to approach Michael Pineda has always been one of life’s great mysteries. He has a 31.5% K rate this season and a 3.3% BB rate. He’s inducing soft contact at 13.3% through four starts. The problem that ails Pineda this season is the same one he’s always had. He seems to occasionally lose focus and serve a pitch up right down the middle for a home run. The Orioles have some players who can hit right-handed pitching. The wind certainly isn’t doing us any favors here either. With that said, pitching is difficult today. There’s basically Strasburg in a tier by himself, then Pineda/Salazar/Liriano, and then a bunch of middling SP2 options.

Quick Breakdown: The Orioles are a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching but there simply aren’t a lot of other places to look for pitching today. Pineda’s high strikeout rate can help mitigate some matchup concerns here. The price is fair enough to consider Pineda here on single-pitcher sites or as an expensive SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Michael Pineda is the second-best pitcher going on this slate. He’s not someone we want to go out of our way to attack. He does have a problem with the home run ball though. He’s already given up five this year in four starts. My preference here would be to deploy the Orioles’ left-handers who don’t strikeout often. The person who most closely fits that description is Seth Smith. You could still take a chance on other Orioles power hitters including Chris Davis, and Mark Trumbo. They are best utilized in tournaments though.

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.345 0.187 34.1% 11.3% 19.9% 46.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.344 0.200 33.9% 6.0% 15.8% 43.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.350 0.241 35.2% 6.7% 18.7% 36.6% 3B $3,300 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.354 0.263 42.2% 14.3% 33.1% 37.5% 1B $3,400 1B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.376 0.281 37.5% 8.0% 25.0% 38.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.304 0.126 34.5% 6.1% 27.3% 39.5% C $3,100 C $3,500 C $6,800
7 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.361 0.127 30.3% 9.6% 14.4% 52.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.336 0.210 28.8% 2.8% 19.8% 43.0% 2B $3,400 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.289 0.122 30.8% 4.1% 17.1% 44.0% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays -Seth Smith

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Yankees

The Yankees quietly have one of the highest implied team totals on the early slate. If the weather doesn’t cooperate elsewhere this might be the best place to go to find some offense. In four starts this season, Jimenez has really only pitched well against the Reds. He faced this same Yankees team opening day and gave up five runs and two home runs.

With Chase Headley back in the lineup, Greg Bird should fall down to the eighth spot again today. Any of the Yankee lefties are in play here as well as Matt Holliday and the red hot, Aaron Judge. Jimenez has been plenty generous to both right-handers (.363 wOBA) and left-handers (.348 wOBA) this season. He also has a fly ball rate hovering in the upper 30s against batters from both sides. That won’t play well with the wind blowing out.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.328 0.104 26.2% 13.3% 16.8% 50.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
2 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.334 0.170 31.3% 10.9% 25.7% 42.5% 3B $3,500 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.331 0.183 35.1% 9.8% 18.5% 52.1% OF $2,900 1B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
4 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.333 0.130 27.1% 9.5% 12.4% 47.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.326 0.170 30.5% 4.0% 19.3% 49.9% 2B $3,200 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
6 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.322 0.250 47.3% 7.6% 35.6% 43.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.304 0.179 25.1% 3.4% 16.1% 40.7% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
8 Greg Bird LEFT 0.203 0.133 46.7% 8.0% 30.0% 31.0% 1B $2,600 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
9 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.292 0.130 22.6% 5.5% 17.4% 41.0% C $2,400 C $2,600 C $5,200

Elite Plays – Chase Headley, Brett Gardner and Matt Holliday

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge and Greg Bird

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Tampa Bay Toronto
Article Image Matt Andriese Article Image Francisco Liriano
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-121 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 36.1% 6.4% 19.4% 41.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 34.2% 8.5% 25.0% 59.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 36.1% 4.2% 21.5% 44.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 33.9% 12.8% 22.5% 48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Andriese
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 3.90 4.37 20.7% 4.7% 42.9% 34.3% 16.6%
2017 4 3.96 3.86 19.8% 7.7% 47.0% 47.0% 18.2%

The Blue Jays still have some name value because of last season. Make no mistake though, this is a team you can target. They have a .278 wOBA against right-handed pitching which is good for 27th in the league. They strike out at a 23.7% clip. Andriese had a respectable 20.7% K rate last season. Andriese is currently sporting a 3.86 ERA. He’s yet to strikeout more than five batters in any game this season though.

Quick Breakdown: – Andriese doesn’t have a lot to offer but this Blue Jays offense has been terrible. Andriese isn’t going to strikeout enough batters to recover if he somehow lets in a couple of runs. If he can continue to do what he’s been doing though he’s an acceptable play as a cheap SP2. He’s certainly not my preferred option though.

Francisco Liriano
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.38 4.69 23.0% 11.6% 52.0% 34.8% 19.4%
2017 4 4.38 4.58 23.8% 13.8% 43.8% 26.5% 8.2%

One of the most difficult decisions on the early slate is what to do with Francisco Liriano. The Rays lead the league in K% against left-handers at 28%. They have a .311 wOBA though and walk at a clip of 12.8%. If you’ve ever rostered Liriano in DFS, you are aware of his issue. He simply walks too many hitters. He faced this same Rays team earlier this month. He only lasted eight batters, striking out one while allowing five runs. If you choose to roster Liriano you should be fully aware of the risk. Pretty much every pitcher outside of Strasburg today comes with risk. When Liriano is pitching well he looks as good as anyone. If he doesn’t have it today though you’ll know right away.

Quick Breakdown: Given Liriano’s price, he’s my preferred SP2 option on DraftKings. He’s a usable option on FanDuel but I would prefer to spend the extra there and just grab Pineda if I can’t get all the way to Strasburg. Hopefully, Liriano’s 23.4% K rate combined with the Rays strikeout tendencies is enough to compensate for the inevitable walks that Liriano will issue.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Part of what makes attacking this Rays offense attractive is that they have five expected starters with a K rate above 25%. Rickie Weeks is also the only batter with an ISO above .190. If going here, Weeks makes the most sense, especially on FanDuel where he is cheap. Steve Souza and Evan Longoria are also acceptable options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.307 0.159 35.6% 5.8% 35.7% 40.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.334 0.152 30.0% 10.5% 25.6% 42.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.312 0.190 34.4% 9.3% 21.4% 33.6% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.318 0.169 32.3% 10.3% 25.3% 45.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 SS $7,200
5 Rickie Weeks RIGHT 0.395 0.329 53.5% 13.7% 25.3% 37.9% OF $2,200 1B $2,600 IF/OF $5,100
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.319 0.105 26.3% 10.5% 22.1% 54.4% 1B $2,800 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.333 0.164 35.7% 7.4% 33.9% 51.5% SS $2,700 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
8 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.267 0.119 41.4% 9.1% 21.4% 31.7% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.293 0.051 23.7% 6.7% 21.0% 45.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 CF $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rickie Weeks

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Toronto

While I said above that Matt Andriese is in play as a low-end SP2, it also makes sense to look at some of the Blue Jays bats here. Eventually, the Jays hitters should bust out of their collective slump. Andriese allowed a .301 wOBA to left-handers last year and a .313 wOBA to right-handers. More importantly, he had a fly ball rate of 37%+ and allowed hard contact 34% of the time.

The price on Russell Martin, Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar is more than fair. I’ll call Martin an elite play as he owns a .319 wOBA against right-handers and finding power-hitting catchers is difficult on most slates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.298 0.112 26.3% 4.8% 15.6% 49.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
2 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.288 0.107 24.1% 8.2% 22.4% 56.5% OF $2,700 OF $2,700 RF $5,200
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.346 0.201 39.0% 17.3% 22.2% 38.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.306 0.183 41.9% 8.8% 19.6% 49.1% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.317 0.192 40.3% 11.7% 36.4% 26.8% 1B $2,600 1B $2,900 1B $5,700
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.319 0.165 29.9% 11.4% 27.6% 47.6% C $3,000 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Chris Coghlan LEFT 0.273 0.130 28.7% 11.3% 25.3% 46.4% OF $2,000 3B $2,600 IF/OF $5,200
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.325 0.157 31.1% 5.7% 19.9% 47.2% 2B $2,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.263 0.157 29.9% 6.6% 23.2% 50.8% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $2,200 2B $4,200

Elite Plays – Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
Article Image Derek Holland Article Image Michael Fulmer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-164 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.238 20.3% 5.4% 20.4% 53.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.260 30.1% 7.1% 19.1% 48.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 36.5% 8.4% 14.4% 35.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 31.3% 5.6% 22.8% 48.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Derek Holland
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 5.10 4.95 14.5% 7.6% 38.3% 32.2% 17.7%
2017 4 4.36 1.99 19.8% 9.4% 38.5% 43.1% 15.4%

Through four starts this season Derek Holland has been getting incredibly lucky. He has a 1.99 ERA. His 4.36 SIERA more closely aligns with the pitcher he was last season. Holland is allowing hard contact at a 43.1% rate this season. No matter what metric you look at, you can see regression is coming for Holland. He’s allowing a 40%+ fly ball rate yet has a HR/FB rate of just 7.4%. That certainly doesn’t jive with Holland’s hard contact rate. It may not be today, but Holland is due for a blow-up outing at some point.

Quick Breakdown: – Holland is not in play against a Tigers offense that features several right-handed power hitters.

Michael Fulmer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $10,500 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.03 3.06 20.4% 6.5% 49.1% 30.4% 19.2%
2017 4 3.42 2.88 23.2% 6.1% 44.1% 32.4% 16.2%

Apparently, the sites have caught on to the fact that we like using right-handers against the White Sox. They strikeout at a 27.3% rate and have a wRC+ of 73 against right-handed pitching. Michael Fulmer has been pitching great this season with a K rate of 23.2%. The only problem is that he’s the third most expensive pitcher on DK and FTD, and the fifth on FD.

Quick Breakdown: – I certainly won’t talk you off Fulmer if that’s the route you plan to go. On paper, he has the best matchup of any pitcher. I think he’s a safe option who is unlikely to have a poor outing. When I’m paying this much for a pitcher, safety isn’t usually what I’m looking for though.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have won five straight games scoring at least five runs in each game. If you believe in hot streaks, you certainly don’t want to fire up Fulmer today. With that said, there’s nothing in the numbers here that screams, “Play White Sox bats” against Fulmer. If the White Sox run the projected lineup below there will be seven right-handers and two switch hitters. None of them hit right-handed pitching particularly well. You could probably talk me into Tim Anderson for cheap or Avisail Garcia who is hitting really well. That’s about it though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.291 0.143 30.0% 3.0% 27.0% 50.4% SS $2,900 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
2 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.295 0.129 22.2% 4.3% 22.8% 51.5% 2B $3,100 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.332 0.149 28.1% 7.9% 10.2% 43.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
4 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.338 0.148 30.3% 6.1% 17.7% 45.5% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.318 0.224 31.1% 9.6% 23.3% 38.1% 3B $3,600 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
6 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.324 0.151 30.8% 7.0% 25.9% 52.9% OF $3,800 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
7 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.422 0.400 42.9% 0.0% 46.2% 21.4% 1B $2,600 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
8 Geovany Soto RIGHT 0.313 0.227 45.8% 9.3% 26.7% 34.8% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.315 0.200 26.5% 1.6% 17.5% 59.2% OF $2,800 OF $2,600 2B $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Detroit

As I said above, Derek Holland has been getting lucky thus far this season. You can’t have a 40% fly ball rate while allowing 40% hard contact and get away with it forever. All three of Holland’s home runs this season have come from right-handers. That’s who we want to target today. Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos are strong plays here. Even James McCann has a .374 wOBA against rght-handers and could provide some potential power at catcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.379 0.229 33.6% 9.5% 17.0% 24.0% 2B $3,300 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
2 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.266 0.133 31.8% 2.3% 23.3% 39.7% OF $2,400 OF $2,600 CF $5,100
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.284 0.226 38.8% 4.1% 28.3% 30.6% 3B $3,200 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.335 0.142 35.9% 8.2% 14.7% 40.8% C $2,800 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.327 0.209 37.2% 8.2% 28.6% 37.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.534 0.250 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% C $2,200 1B/C $2,600 C $5,100
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.374 0.308 47.3% 10.1% 28.9% 33.7% C $2,400 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.311 0.162 28.9% 5.7% 7.0% 36.9% SS $2,300 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.294 0.059 23.8% 7.3% 16.4% 59.5% SS $2,200 OF/SS $2,100 SS $4,000

Elite Plays – Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos and James McCann

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Cincinnati at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Cincinnati St. Louis
Article Image Bronson Arroyo Article Image Mike Leake
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-171 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.246 29.0% 7.3% 17.1% 41.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 28.9% 5.3% 15.8% 56.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.452 35.1% 4.2% 18.8% 31.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 29.4% 2.8% 17.8% 52.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Bronson Arroyo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 4.23 6.86 18.0% 5.6% 36.4% 32.4% 11.8%

If you are playing on FanDuel this is the final game of the early slate. It may not play at all though. There’s a 60% chance for rain around start time and that actually increases to 90% within an hour of the first pitch. The radar doesn’t look great and the Reds and Cubs are division opponents, leaving plenty of opportunities to get this one in at a later date. I think this game gets called but we’ll go ahead and break it down just in case you want to take the risk.

Bronson Arroyo has a 6.86 ERA this season. He’s making his fifth start this season after last pitching in the majors in 2014. He’s the top target to stack against if somehow this game gets in. He’s allowing a .451 wOBA to right-handers and a .245 wOBA to left-handers. That will eventually correct itself though. That’s only a 20 inning sample from this season. What is important is 29.1% hard contact to left-handers and 35.1% to right-handers.

Quick Breakdown: – Bronson Arroyo is not in play in any format except lowball (where you try to score the least points).

Mike Leake
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.92 4.69 16.5% 4.0% 53.7% 30.6% 17.3%
2017 4 3.21 1.32 19.2% 3.9% 58.2% 18.8% 21.3%

It’s a shame that this game is threatened by rain. Mike Leake would have given us one more option to consider as a SP2. Leake is sporting a 1.32 ERA and an elite 58.2% ground ball rate. Even though his strikeout rate is low (16.5% last year, 19.2% this year) the Reds aren’t an offense we have to fear. They have a wRC+ of 95 against right-handed pitching which is almost league average.

Quick Breakdown: – If the forecast allows a two-hour window to play this game, Mike Leake is a safe SP2 option for cash games though the upside is limited as Leake isn’t a high strikeout arm and the Reds aren’t a high strikeout team against right-handers.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

If this game plays, Joey Votto is an option as owns a .419 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I wouldn’t go out of my way to use any other Reds though as Leake does a good job of limiting damage and inducing ground balls.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.301 0.075 18.2% 8.8% 19.4% 47.2% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.338 0.171 30.4% 8.3% 16.1% 39.4% SS $3,400 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.419 0.251 41.3% 17.3% 15.0% 37.8% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.325 0.251 38.1% 5.9% 27.3% 33.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.316 0.157 35.3% 7.7% 23.2% 39.7% 3B $3,500 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.332 0.186 33.2% 7.7% 22.5% 51.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.307 0.067 19.4% 2.2% 12.7% 45.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.314 0.121 31.7% 9.2% 15.0% 44.5% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Bronson Arroyo RIGHT 0.000 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% P $7,400 P $5,000 P $10,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays -Joey Votto

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

St. Louis

The Cardinals are the top offense to target on the early slate if there’s a window to get this game in. Leake is allowing hard contact at close to 30% from both sides of the plate. In a small sample, he’s allowing a .451 wOBA to right-handers. We can target pretty much anyone in the lineup from either side of the plate. My top targets would be Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Dexter Fowler and Aledmys Diaz.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.347 0.164 28.8% 13.8% 26.1% 36.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
2 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.376 0.239 31.9% 7.4% 12.8% 43.8% SS $2,900 SS $4,000 SS $7,800
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.383 0.251 46.1% 15.5% 19.6% 28.1% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.327 0.163 34.1% 6.9% 21.8% 46.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
5 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.366 0.300 35.6% 8.3% 24.2% 43.4% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $4,200 3B $8,000
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.336 0.119 31.7% 6.2% 10.5% 48.5% C $3,200 C $3,400 C $6,600
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.314 0.225 39.5% 4.5% 31.2% 43.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.297 0.133 25.3% 10.3% 13.3% 48.0% 2B $3,200 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
9 Mike Leake RIGHT 0.140 0.026 14.3% 2.4% 31.0% 37.5% P $8,600 P $7,800 P $15,200

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler and Aledmys Diaz.

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.