MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 25th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2019-05-16 15:49:36

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Chicago Cubs
			Luis Castillo							Jose Quintana
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-170
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.378	0.374	42.9%	1.90	22.8%	39.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.286	27.3%	0.88	22.8%	53.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.313	34.7%	1.13	22.9%	48.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.366	37.7%	1.54	19.7%	40.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:				Salary:			$8,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			of 27	Salary Rank:			11 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	15	3.63	3.12	27.3%	8.9%	58.8%	29.7%	22.1%	97.5	12.7%
	2018	25	3.94	4.86	22.8%	7.1%	43.9%	38.7%	18.6%	95.5	13.7%
	L14	2	2.51	4.38	32.0%	2.0%	39.4%	39.4%	21.2%	96.3	12.4%

Luis Castillo has been quite up-and-down this season, but today he has the misfortune of taking the mound at Wrigley Field with the wind howling out. Castillo has a decent 22.8% strikeout rate on the season, but he has also allowed hard hits at a 38.7% clip and he’s been taken deep 22 times in 25 starts. Castillo has also struggled in terms of getting left-handed hitters out this season, and the Cubs have a lefty-heavy lineup. He always comes with some strikeout upside, but this isn’t the spot to be risking it with Castillo.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo is an easy fade here against the Cubs.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jose Quintana
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:				Salary:			$7,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			of 27	Salary Rank:			16 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	3.80	4.15	26.2%	7.7%	44.8%	32.6%	18.2%	92.1	8.5%
	2018	24	4.62	4.36	20.4%	10.2%	43.0%	35.3%	15.8%	91.4	7.6%
	L14	2	4.10	5.40	20.9%	7.0%	44.8%	16.7%	6.7%	91.4	10.4%

Jose Quintana has been wildly inconsistent this season, and he’s struggled more often than not. The southpaw has seen his strikeout rate plummet to 20.4%, while his walk rate has creeped up over 10%. He does have the benefit of facing a Joey Votto-free Reds offense today, but he’ll have to deal with the same windy conditions that don’t bode well for Castillo. Cincinnati doesn’t strike out much as a team and Quintana has been prone to getting blown up. He’s affordable today, but there’s probably a reason for that.

Quick Breakdown: There’s more downside than upside with Quintana here.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Quintana has yielded a .338 wOBA and 17 home runs on the year to right-handed hitters, so that’s where we’d like to start with the Reds’ bats. Eugenio Suarez is easily the best play on the Cincinnati side, and he’s a strong third base option in all formats. Jose Peraza, Billy Hamilton and Phillip Ervin are all decent plays with some stolen base potential here. Curt Casali also has some pop if you’re looking for a cheap catcher. Quintana has been much better against lefties, but Scott Schebler and Scooter Gennett can certainly pay off if they’re able to get the ball in the air today. They’re secondary plays on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.265	0.119	25.0%	7.6%	28.6%	23.0%	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.302	0.135	26.1%	3.4%	6.1%	40.8%	SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.307	0.188	43.0%	5.4%	22.8%	37.1%	2B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.473	0.324	57.5%	14.7%	21.7%	37.5%	3B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.371	0.286	43.5%	9.4%	18.8%	39.1%	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.316	0.132	38.9%	13.3%	25.6%	58.5%	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Dilson Herrera	RIGHT	0.362	0.176	18.2%	10.5%	31.6%	10.0%	2B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.425	0.222	37.5%	9.7%	9.7%	41.7%	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.111	0.000	21.4%	0.0%	22.2%	58.3%	P	$8,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.326	0.176	34.6%	8.2%	20.8%	38.4%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza, Phillip Ervin, Billy Hamilton

Secondary Plays – Curt Casali, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler, Brandon Dixon, Dilson Herrera

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

Stacking the Cubs can definitely be frustrating, but they grade out as the top stacking option on the early slate. Castillo has allowed a .378 wOBA on the year to left-handed hitters, and the Cubs can throw Anthony Rizzo, Daniel Murphy, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Jason Heyward at him. Javier Baez has taken a huge step forward this season, and he’s your top option from the right side. Whichever catcher cracks the lineup (Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini) makes sense as a part of your stack, too. Load up on the Cubs today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.391	0.155	26.1%	6.3%	6.9%	33.3%	1B/2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.345	0.283	36.9%	2.9%	25.7%	45.8%	2B/SS	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.410	0.231	35.7%	11.9%	9.6%	37.4%	1B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.368	0.184	35.6%	13.4%	13.1%	44.5%	2B/OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.376	0.263	42.1%	15.0%	25.8%	40.0%	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.363	0.195	41.7%	17.3%	34.7%	36.4%	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.302	0.141	29.9%	7.6%	21.3%	51.6%	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Quintana	LEFT	0.119	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	36.4%	81.3%	P	$7,300	N/A	N/A
9	David Bote	RIGHT	0.372	0.143	36.5%	10.1%	22.8%	59.6%	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.338	0.177	33.2%	9.4%	21.8%	47.8%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Daniel Murphy, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, Victor Caratini / Willson Contreras, David Bote

Stackability – GREEN

Texas at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Texas								San Francisco
			Martin Perez							Andrew Suarez
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SF -145							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	0.296	36.7%	1.29	12.1%	60.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.230	0.256	29.6%	0.29	22.2%	63.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.432	0.397	45.6%	2.17	12.6%	48.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.368	0.379	44.6%	1.74	20.1%	46.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Martin Perez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,400	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:			19 of 27	Salary Rank:			24 of 27	Salary Rank:		24 of 27
	2017	32	5.04	4.82	14.2%	7.8%	47.3%	33.3%	15.2%	93.1	7.3%
	2018	12	5.09	6.93	12.5%	8.2%	50.6%	43.8%	17.1%	92.3	6.6%
	L14	2	4.52	10.64	9.4%	3.8%	53.3%	52.2%	21.7%	92.6	7.8%

Martin Perez has made just 12 starts for the Rangers after getting attacked by a bull over the offseason. The left-hander’s 5.09 SIERA is quite a bit better than his 6.83 ERA, but neither number is something to be proud of. Perez has a comically low strikeout rate under 13% and he has allowed hard hits at a 43.8% clip. His high ball rate will help him escape some jams, but that’s really the only box he checks. He does get a massive park upgrade today going into AT&T Park and he will get to face a pitcher instead of a DH, but neither factor is enough to put him on our radar.

Quick Breakdown: Perez doesn’t have nearly enough upside to warrant serious consideration.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Andrew Suarez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:		$13,100
	Salary Rank:			16 of 27	Salary Rank:			20 of 27	Salary Rank:		18 of 27

	2018	22	3.90	4.68	20.6%	6.2%	50.1%	41.0%	17.5%	92.3	7.0%
	L14	2	5.13	5.19	17.5%	12.5%	48.1%	46.4%	21.4%	91.7	6.0%

Andrew Suarez has pitched pretty well as a rookie. The left-hander’s 3.90 SIERA is far better than his 4.63 ERA, and his 20.6% strikeout rate isn’t awful. The 41% hard-hit rate he’s allowed is definitely a red flag, but Suarez is a lefty with a wide split facing a lefty-heavy Rangers lineup today. Texas will also be adding a pitcher to the lineup, and one of their better right-handed hitters (Adrian Beltre) is on the DL. The best part about Suarez is that he’s cheap. He’s not exactly Chris Sale in terms of upside, but you don’t need Chris Sale production from him at this price point.

Quick Breakdown: Suarez is an elite value option against Texas.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Andrew Suarez has allowed 18 homers on the year, but 17 of those have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. Most of the Texas power bats are left-handed, and Suarez has held lefties in check to the tune of a .230 wOBA. Righties have had more success against him, so you can always take a flier on an Elvis Andrus or a Robinson Chirinos. This isn’t the spot to be rolling out a bunch of Texas lefties, nor is it a great stacking opportunity. The Rangers offense isn’t a great one today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.339	0.116	38.7%	11.7%	27.6%	50.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,400
2	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.285	0.144	43.0%	8.1%	25.0%	44.2%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,200
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.320	0.125	35.2%	5.9%	10.6%	47.9%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,300
4	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.318	0.192	35.9%	4.4%	27.7%	57.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.339	0.210	34.0%	10.4%	10.4%	41.5%	3B	$3,500	3B/SS	$4,200	SS	$8,200
6	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.318	0.216	40.0%	15.6%	33.3%	33.3%	C	$3,100	C	$3,900	C	$7,400
7	Ronald Guzman	LEFT	0.262	0.164	25.9%	5.2%	24.7%	44.4%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,600
8	Carlos Tocci	RIGHT	0.202	0.032	11.1%	5.4%	21.6%	60.9%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,600
9	Martin Perez	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$6,400	P	$5,200	P	$9,900
	Team Averages		0.265	0.133	29.3%	7.4%	31.2%	42.3%

Elite Plays – Elvis Andrus, Robinson Chirinos

Secondary Plays – Rougned Odor

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco

The Giants draw Martin Perez, a hittable lefty that doesn’t miss many bats. Perez has also allowed 14 homers in his 12 starts, including 12 against RHBs. Andrew McCutchen instantly jumps out as the top option on the board from the San Francisco side of things, and he brings jack-and-a-bag upside to the table. Evan Longoria, Austin Slater and Nick Hundley are also viable values at their respective positions. Buster Posey is in play if he’s in the lineup, but he’s slated to undergo season-ending surgery in a couple of days. Rostering a guy playing hurt doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. I’d stop short of full-on stacking Giants here given the ballpark, but they’re a solid source of one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.386	0.173	45.2%	11.9%	20.5%	42.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
2	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.338	0.255	39.4%	2.0%	30.6%	25.0%	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$3,300	SS	$6,700
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.402	0.248	45.1%	5.5%	13.4%	44.1%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,200
4	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.386	0.253	51.6%	5.7%	23.9%	33.9%	C	$2,000	C	$3,600	C	$7,300
5	Austin Slater	RIGHT	0.335	0.065	43.2%	8.9%	17.9%	56.8%	OF	$2,300	1B/OF	$3,600	LF	$7,700
6	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.210	0.029	24.5%	5.6%	20.8%	54.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,300
7	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.313	0.180	38.9%	6.8%	25.6%	44.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
8	Alen Hanson	SWITCH	0.225	0.066	31.3%	3.1%	23.1%	57.4%	OF	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,700	2B	$7,700
9	Andrew Suarez	LEFT	0.073	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	56.3%	100.0%	P	$7,000	P	$6,700	P	$13,100
	Team Averages		0.296	0.141	37.1%	5.5%	25.8%	51.0%

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Austin Slater, Nick Hundley

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at NY Mets – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Washington								NY Mets
			Tanner Roark							Zack Wheeler
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-101							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.318	0.313	24.2%	1.09	22.3%	37.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.326	32.0%	0.83	26.0%	36.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.299	0.340	30.5%	0.91	17.1%	46.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.259	0.278	20.7%	0.67	22.3%	49.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:		$15,700
	Salary Rank:			7 of 27	Salary Rank:			14 of 27	Salary Rank:		11 of 27
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%	92.2	10.1%
	2018	25	4.40	4.05	19.7%	7.4%	41.8%	27.6%	18.4%	91.3	8.6%
	L14	3	5.18	2.70	13.2%	5.9%	34.6%	31.5%	16.7%	91.6	6.3%

Tanner Roark isn’t a guy we like to play all that often, but today may be a day to do just that. It’s gross, I know. Roark carries a pedestrian 19.7% strikeout rate and a 4.40 SIERA into his outing this afternoon. His ground ball rate has also dropped about 7 percent this season, which is obviously a concern. Roark has made his way through this league in years past by limiting hard contact, and this year has been no different thus far. He has allowed a hard-hit rate of just 27.5%, which is strong. Roark additionally gets a huge park upgrade going from Washington into Citi Field, and he’ll be facing a short-handed Mets offense without much thunder. Roark is also fairly priced, which puts him on my radar. I don’t think he’ll kill you today.

Quick Breakdown: He’s never a fun roster, but Tanner Roark is a solid option today against the Mets.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Zack Wheeler
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,600	Salary:			$10,500	Salary:		$20,300
	Salary Rank:			4 of 27	Salary Rank:			5 of 27	Salary Rank:		5 of 27
	2017	17	4.64	5.21	21.0%	10.4%	47.5%	32.8%	18.3%	94.6	9.1%
	2018	24	3.89	3.63	24.0%	7.7%	43.8%	25.6%	24.9%	95.8	11.4%
	L14	3	3.20	1.89	27.6%	5.3%	44.9%	18.0%	24.0%	96.2	13.6%

Zack Wheeler has quietly been really good this season for the Mets. The right-hander has a respectable 24% strikeout rate and a 3.89 SIERA. The most impressive number for Wheeler is that his soft contact rate (24.9%) is nearly as high as his hard contact rate (25.6%). He gets a fairly difficult matchup against the Nationals today, however, and Wheeler is the most expensive arm on the early slate. I think it’s fair to say he could easily outscore every other pitcher here, but I don’t think the gap is wide enough to where you need to be forking over the extra salary. The upside is there for tournaments, but going cheaper in cash is probably a better route today.

Quick Breakdown: Wheeler is the top pitching option on the early slate, it’s just a matter of whether you want to pay all the way up.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Zack Wheeler has been excellent this season, but he has allowed a .310 wOBA to lefties. The Nats lost a couple of their better hitters during the week, but Bryce Harper and Juan Soto still grade out as decent options here. Adam Eaton is a secondary play in the outfield, while Matt Wieters is a serviceable catcher punt with a little power. Wheeler has strong numbers against righties, so I don’t really see the need to force Anthony Rendon or Trea Turner here. This isn’t a prime spot to be stacking the Nationals, so tread lightly.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.363	0.117	36.9%	8.9%	16.5%	43.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,400
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.314	0.138	30.2%	7.7%	19.6%	51.7%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,400
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.395	0.281	42.4%	16.9%	24.8%	36.0%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,200	RF	$9,900
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.382	0.191	36.8%	8.4%	14.0%	36.6%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,600
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.376	0.211	36.4%	18.6%	18.6%	51.2%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,100
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.404	0.234	43.5%	6.0%	19.5%	48.1%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,400
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.304	0.132	32.5%	7.8%	12.4%	37.8%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	C	$6,500
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.290	0.125	21.0%	7.5%	16.9%	41.8%	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$3,100	2B	$5,600
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.188	0.094	16.7%	0.0%	26.5%	82.6%	P	$8,600	P	$7,700	P	$15,700
	Team Averages		0.335	0.169	32.9%	9.1%	18.8%	47.7%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters, Adam Eaton

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Tanner Roark has been worse against left-handed hitters in his career, but the Mets are without a couple of their best bats in Yoenis Cespedes and Brandon Nimmo right now. I think you can play Jeff McNeil and Michael Conforto here without feeling too awful about things, but with a windy Wrigley game I don’t see why you’d want to be loading up on the Mets. Roark has held right-handed hitters to a .299 wOBA on the year, and this might be the worst hitters’ park in baseball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.282	0.113	27.8%	5.4%	19.8%	50.6%	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,300
2	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.338	0.171	33.8%	4.4%	11.0%	38.0%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
3	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.321	0.198	36.1%	6.7%	9.8%	35.1%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,200
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.342	0.163	38.4%	15.4%	23.1%	38.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,000
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.341	0.198	46.2%	9.0%	21.2%	34.1%	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,000
6	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.370	0.118	33.3%	11.6%	18.0%	30.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,800
7	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.342	0.167	40.8%	14.8%	29.7%	33.6%	OF	$3,300	3B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.313	0.156	38.6%	10.1%	22.0%	51.5%	C	$2,500	C	$4,000	C	$7,400
9	Zack Wheeler	RIGHT	0.149	0.067	14.8%	0.0%	18.2%	45.8%	P	$9,600	P	$10,500	P	$20,300
	Team Averages		0.311	0.150	34.4%	8.6%	19.2%	39.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Philadelphia at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Toronto
			Nick Pivetta							Aaron Sanchez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-110							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.343	36.3%	1.41	27.3%	40.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.381	0.355	30.0%	0.83	16.3%	52.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.268	32.6%	1.13	30.4%	48.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.371	34.6%	0.96	20.8%	48.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:			$9,400	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:			10 of 27	Salary Rank:			6 of 27	Salary Rank:		6 of 27
	2017	26	4.32	6.02	24.0%	9.8%	43.8%	35.5%	15.9%	94.4	8.7%
	2018	25	3.22	4.66	29.0%	6.4%	44.5%	34.3%	16.7%	94.8	11.9%
	L14	2	3.25	6.52	27.5%	5.0%	34.6%	44.4%	14.8%	95.1	10.2%

Nick Pivetta has flashed an awesome 29% strikeout rate this season, which will certainly raise some eyebrows. The right-hander has yielded a 34.5% hard contact rate while showing about average ground ball skills. His 3.22 SIERA is also quite a bit more favorable than his bloated 4.66 ERA. There are a couple of issues with Pivetta today. One is that he’s priced up, and the other is that he’s getting a negative league shift going from the NL into the AL. The Blue Jays aren’t some amazing offense, but they do have a decent amount of pop, and Pivetta has conceded 18 homers on the season. As is the case with Wheeler, I think you can pay up for him and hope for a ceiling game in tournaments, but he’s not a necessary option in cash games.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is fine for tournaments, but I don’t think I’ll be paying up for him in cash games.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Aaron Sanchez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:			14 of 27	Salary Rank:			22 of 27	Salary Rank:		21 of 27
	2017	8	5.62	4.25	14.4%	12.0%	47.5%	29.5%	21.3%	94.9	5.6%
	2018	15	5.05	4.52	18.7%	12.6%	50.2%	32.5%	21.3%	93.8	10.1%

Aaron Sanchez will be making his first start in a couple of months after apparently injuring a finger on his throwing hand with a suitcase. The right-hander had been mediocre in his 15 starts before getting hurt. He has an 18.7% K-rate on the season alongside a high walk rate of 12.6%. His 5.05 SIERA is also quite a bit worse than his 4.52 ERA. The Phillies do have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league this season against right-handed pitching, but Sanchez hasn’t shown much strikeout potential at all in a couple of years. I would also think Sanchez will come with a pitch limit in his first start off the DL.

Quick Breakdown: Take a wait-and-see approach with Sanchez today.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Aaron Sanchez was a decent pitcher a couple of years ago, but he’s been pretty bad for the last couple of seasons. He’s historically a pitcher with a pretty wide traditional split, so attacking him with left-handed bats is the way to go. Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, Cesar Hernandez and Nick Williams are fine plays here, but none of them feels like a core option. Rhys Hoskins is in play from the right side, but again, the Phillies don’t really jump off the board in this spot. There’s power upside for the stack in tournaments, but I’d prefer to pick my spots with the Philly bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.316	0.124	22.9%	13.9%	21.6%	41.4%	2B	$2,500	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,200
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.375	0.266	37.2%	11.3%	25.3%	29.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,800	IF/OF	$8,600
3	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.382	0.212	33.0%	8.2%	22.5%	42.6%	OF	$2,300	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,300
4	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.355	0.234	42.5%	7.2%	21.8%	39.8%	SS	$2,900	2B/SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.366	0.170	34.9%	18.9%	16.6%	39.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,500
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.330	0.223	27.3%	5.3%	14.2%	51.6%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
7	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.301	0.190	25.4%	7.2%	20.3%	40.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.281	0.130	36.3%	4.0%	38.4%	49.6%	C	$2,100	C	$3,400	C	$6,900
9	Roman Quinn	SWITCH	0.269	0.086	22.6%	2.8%	11.1%	62.1%	OF	$2,100	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,200
	Team Averages		0.331	0.182	31.3%	8.8%	21.3%	44.0%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Asdrubal Cabrera, Cesar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Nick Pivetta looks like a pretty good pitcher, but he’s had his struggles against lefties. Pivetta has allowed a .349 wOBA and 36.3% hard hits to left-handed hitters this season. Kendrys Morales seems to hit dongs on a daily basis these days, while Justin Smoak and Billy McKinney also make some sense here. Pivetta is better against righties, but he’s not exactly unhittable. Lourdes Gurriel and Randal Grichuk look like the best options from the right side here. I feel about the same way about the Jays as I do about the Phils. They’re fine as one-offs, but a stack doesn’t feel all that necessary.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lourdes Gurriel	RIGHT	0.368	0.208	31.7%	1.0%	21.4%	40.5%	2B	$2,700	2B/SS	$3,700	2B	$7,200
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.319	0.122	30.8%	5.4%	20.7%	54.7%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.406	0.250	38.5%	16.3%	25.7%	31.3%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,400
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.438	0.231	46.0%	12.4%	19.4%	43.8%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,200
5	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.338	0.250	33.7%	5.5%	23.0%	37.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,500
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.341	0.175	34.5%	3.9%	20.1%	35.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
7	Danny Jansen	RIGHT	0.264	0.238	25.0%	4.2%	8.3%	35.0%	C	$2,900	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.349	0.190	34.0%	3.2%	12.0%	42.1%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,400
9	Billy McKinney	LEFT	0.354	0.188	41.7%	11.1%	22.2%	50.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.353	0.206	35.1%	7.0%	19.2%	41.1%

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk, Billy McKinney

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Boston								Tampa Bay
			Rick Porcello						**
			RIGHT						**
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.340	40.0%	1.56	27.3%	36.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.000	25.0%	0.00	0.0%	25.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.304	27.1%	0.97	20.1%	51.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	33.3%	0.00	30.0%	66.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,400	Salary:			$11,200	Salary:		$21,600
	Salary Rank:			5 of 27	Salary Rank:			3 of 27	Salary Rank:		3 of 27
	2017	33	4.28	4.65	20.5%	5.4%	39.2%	38.3%	17.1%	91.1	9.4%
	2018	26	3.71	4.14	23.5%	5.6%	45.0%	32.8%	20.0%	90.3	8.3%
	L14	2	2.61	3.86	31.4%	2.0%	44.1%	23.5%	14.7%	90.5	7.6%

Rick Porcello has rebounded nicely following a terrible 2017 campaign. The right-hander has a decent 23.5% strikeout rate, and his 3.71 SIERA looks nicer than his 4.14 ERA. Porcello has kept the hard contact down, while his ground ball rate has come up about 6% from where it was last year. The former Cy Young winner gets a considerable park upgrade today going from Fenway into the Trop, and he’ll be facing a Rays lineup without a ton of scary names. Tampa is a better team than most give them credit for, but it’s still not a particularly imposing matchup. Porcello is on the FanDuel early slate, where is grades out as a strong option.

Quick Breakdown: Porcello is in play as your SP on the FanDuel early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
#VALUE!
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:			of 27	Salary Rank:			of 27	Salary Rank:		of 27
	2017	0	8.34	0.00	0.0%	16.7%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	83.3	3.9%
	2018	0	7.35	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	78.0	0.0%
	L14	0	2.85	0.00	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	50.0%	50.0%	92.2	5.9%

Ryan Yarbrough is likely to see the mound at some point today for the Rays. The left-hander has pitched decently this season, as evidenced by his 21% strikeout rate and 4.02 SIERA. He’s been a fly ball pitcher to this point in the big leagues, which is a skill that suits him well whenever he’s pitching at the spacious Trop. Yarbo comes cheap, but he gets an awful matchup today against what may be baseball’s best offense in the Red Sox. Rostering pitchers against Boston hasn’t been a fruitful strategy this season, so I don’t think I’ll be starting today.

Quick Breakdown: Yarbrough is an easy fade against the Red Sox.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Boston’s hitters aren’t as appealing today as they would be if they were playing at home, but there’s a chance they go a bit overlooked today given the ballpark. This is still a loaded set of hitters, and Yarbrough is a left-hander with a fairly wide platoon split. The right-handers are your prime targets, so J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts look like elite plays in this spot. Eduardo Nunez and Ian Kinsler are serviceable values, while Steve Pearce carries plenty of dong potential. Andrew Benintendi could be a nice way to differentiate your stack from the left side. With most people on the Cubs on the early slate, the Red Sox could be a bit sneaky.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.445	0.269	44.3%	10.7%	14.4%	33.6%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,200
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.405	0.200	30.0%	13.0%	13.7%	37.6%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,900	LF	$8,700
3	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.421	0.233	36.7%	10.1%	19.9%	41.3%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,900
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.463	0.356	46.4%	11.1%	22.1%	44.5%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,100
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.384	0.271	38.1%	7.1%	16.4%	47.8%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,100	SS	$9,900
6	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.337	0.190	32.7%	8.7%	10.6%	37.9%	2B	$2,500	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,300
7	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.339	0.111	29.5%	9.0%	14.3%	50.8%	3B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,700	2B	$7,500
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.262	0.126	26.8%	3.4%	25.8%	42.4%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,700
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.379	0.195	41.6%	9.6%	22.5%	40.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,700
	Team Averages		0.382	0.217	36.2%	9.2%	17.7%	41.8%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Ian Kinsler, Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Rick Porcello hasn’t been a guy to pick on this season. He has allowed 13 homers and a .300 wOBA to left-handed bats, so if you want some Tampa exposure you should probably start with lefties. Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Bauers and Joey Wendle are fine as individuals, but none of them stand out as musts here. Ji-Man Choi has some home run potential, but a full Rays fade likely isn’t the worst strategy here today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.304	0.135	29.4%	9.1%	17.6%	46.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,000
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.314	0.079	28.5%	6.3%	15.7%	53.0%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,500
3	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.327	0.134	36.0%	5.8%	19.0%	47.0%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,300
4	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.347	0.161	47.9%	9.8%	25.8%	51.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
5	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.353	0.207	42.7%	14.8%	25.2%	44.7%	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,800	1B	$7,600
6	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.384	0.230	47.1%	10.6%	27.4%	43.5%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,500
7	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.300	0.163	29.9%	8.7%	26.2%	44.8%	SS	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,400
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.268	0.099	33.1%	7.0%	23.6%	51.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,300
9	Michael Perez	LEFT	0.301	0.100	39.0%	3.8%	18.9%	36.6%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
	Team Averages		0.322	0.145	37.1%	8.4%	22.2%	46.6%

Elite Plays – Jake Bauers

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 25th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Texas at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Washington at NY Mets – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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