MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 26th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-08-27 01:34:17

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Seattle at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								NY Yankees
			Yovani Gallardo							Sonny Gray
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-200							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.334	30.3%	12.7%	18.1%	39.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.311	28.5%	7.0%	20.5%	53.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.357	0.348	30.2%	9.0%	14.6%	47.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.321	34.1%	9.2%	20.8%	55.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Yovani Gallardo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2016	23	5.34	5.42	16.2%	11.6%	43.2%	27.5%	18.5%
	2017	19	5.16	5.84	16.3%	9.8%	45.1%	33.2%	19.9%
	L30	5	5.84	6.75	13.6%	10.0%	38.1%	32.1%	19.1%

Happy Saturday, Grinders! I am back with you for the weekend Grind Down, so let’s get cracking! We have five early games today, which DraftKings has placed into a solid five game early slate. FanDuel, on the other hand, has split the slate into a two game “very early only” slate and a three game “early” slate. I am not a fan of that, but it has become old hat by now. In the first game of the afternoon, Yovani Gallardo takes the hill for the Mariners. He has an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP all over 5.00, a below average strikeout rate, and has to face a dangerous Yankees offense on the road. This is an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Gallardo can safely be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$18,400
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	2016	22	4.32	5.69	18.2%	8.1%	53.9%	33.6%	16.1%
	2017	19	3.84	3.37	23.3%	8.2%	56.1%	28.6%	17.9%
	L30	4	3.95	2.25	25.5%	10.8%	59.4%	27.7%	24.6%

Sonny Gray has had some difficult matchups since joining the Yankees, so we can give him some leeway for his performances. In terms of run prevention, he has been very good with exactly two runs allowed in each of his four starts in a Yankee uniform. In terms of strikeouts, well, that’s a different story. He has just a 17/11 K/BB ratio in his first 23 innings as a Yankee, and he has not pitched more than six innings in any of his four starts. Gray had been showing more strikeout upside before the trade, so hopefully he can get back to that today. The early slates are somewhat starved for pitching and the Mariners have a low team total of 3.8 runs, so that thrusts Gray into the conversation.

Quick Breakdown: Thanks to the thin nature of the pitching options on the early slate, Gray is a viable option in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.345	0.295	0.127	25.1%	4.3%	16.2%	54.9%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,800
2	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.382	0.387	0.249	34.1%	13.8%	22.4%	32.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,800
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.362	0.387	0.213	38.2%	9.2%	10.1%	50.4%	2B	$3,900	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.394	0.381	0.296	39.4%	7.2%	22.0%	40.2%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,800
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.318	0.373	0.183	39.9%	8.8%	16.0%	32.5%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
6	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.369	0.322	0.198	36.1%	11.6%	23.1%	44.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
7	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.332	0.302	0.116	27.4%	8.9%	21.3%	44.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	RF	$6,000
8	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.296	0.254	0.089	15.3%	5.7%	13.7%	51.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	LF	$6,000
9	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.330	0.314	0.258	38.0%	7.7%	37.5%	31.0%	C	$2,800	C	$3,100	C	$6,000

Sonny Gray has held LHBs to a .269 wOBA this year, and he has held RHBs to a .291 wOBA. He has faced this Mariners quite a few times from his time in the AL West, and nobody on the team really has good BvP against him. Gray doesn’t have a real weakness, and it’s very difficult to endorse picking on him. You could choose some middle of the order bats and hope, but that’s not the best DFS strategy.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.353	0.339	0.201	33.2%	12.0%	19.0%	40.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,200
2	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.377	0.340	0.222	29.5%	16.4%	16.4%	42.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	CF	$8,700
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.368	0.369	0.241	35.9%	7.6%	23.8%	44.3%	C	$4,200	C	$5,400	C	$10,400
4	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.426	0.421	0.323	45.1%	15.4%	32.3%	36.3%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,200
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.378	0.291	0.234	26.3%	4.3%	12.7%	40.5%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,700
6	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.352	0.329	0.136	31.0%	12.5%	24.3%	44.3%	1B	$3,200	1B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
7	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.324	0.344	0.186	29.1%	13.2%	22.1%	38.5%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,800
8	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.333	0.328	0.148	26.8%	9.9%	14.1%	45.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.289	0.245	0.090	19.4%	2.3%	13.5%	48.9%	2B	$2,700	2B/SS	$3,200	2B	$6,400

There are differing opinions out there when it comes to Yovani Gallardo. On one hand, you have the folks who simply think he is a washed up gas can. On the other hand, you have the folks who think he’s not quite as bad as his numbers indicate. I lean somewhat toward the former, but he isn’t a good pitcher no matter how you slice it. The Yankees have the highest implied team total of the five early games at almost 5.6 runs, and you need to get some exposure here. Gallardo is relatively splits neutral, with the wOBA and hard contact numbers favoring RHBs but the line drive rate favoring LHBs. You can really look at anyone from top to bottom here. Let pricing and your roster construction help with your decisions.

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Todd Frazier, Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Toronto
			Dillon Gee							Marco Estrada
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-140							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.362	0.335	31.3%	10.0%	14.4%	39.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.285	0.276	26.0%	8.6%	23.6%	34.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.319	25.3%	3.8%	19.0%	41.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.323	33.3%	10.1%	22.5%	29.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dillon Gee
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2016	14	4.60	4.68	16.2%	6.7%	41.0%	28.9%	19.8%
	2017	1	4.19	3.16	19.8%	7.2%	39.5%	24.4%	29.5%
	L30	0	3.41	2.13	24.0%	4.0%	35.3%	25.7%	22.9%

The Twins just keep pulling starters out of nowhere, only to see them have success. Bartolo Colon fired 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball last night despite not registering a single strikeout. (It was very annoying for those of us that stacked Toronto). 31 year-old Dillon Gee takes the ball today, and he has never been a pitcher with big fantasy upside. He has never logged a full season with a strikeout rate over 20%, and his career SIERA at the big league level is a very average 4.27. He does a good job of limiting hard contact, and the Jays are not a good offense right now, but there’s just no upside here. I can see using him in a pinch if you absolutely need a punt pitcher, but there’s not much appeal here.

Quick Breakdown: Gee has limited upside and is not really a fantasy option, but he could potentially be used in a pinch if needed. This is primarily only applicable to the two game “very early” slate on FanDuel, where there are only four total pitching options. Do not consider him on full afternoon slates.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	2016	29	4.35	3.48	22.8%	9.0%	33.5%	31.3%	21.1%
	2017	25	4.60	5.09	23.3%	9.8%	30.0%	27.8%	19.3%
	L30	6	5.63	4.37	18.2%	11.0%	24.1%	19.3%	23.9%

After a fine start to the season that included a nice bump in his strikeout rate, Marco Estrada has settled back around his career averages. The high fly ball rate has also caught up with him of late, as his numbers have deteriorated across the board. The risk with Estrada is well known, as he can fall victim to home runs in any start with his high fly ball rate. The reward happens on the days where the BABIP gods are in his favor. I don’t know if I want to chance it against a Twins offense that ranks 3rd in the league in ISO in the month of August. Estrada does have some upside on the right day, but he’s better utilized as a GPP option.

Quick Breakdown: There is plenty of risk against a red hot Twins offense, but Estrada is viable on the early slate. He’s a better option on DK where he is priced favorably at $6,900 and you need two pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.319	0.307	0.198	33.2%	9.5%	21.8%	39.9%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,200
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.353	0.390	0.123	41.3%	12.5%	14.5%	49.4%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.294	0.287	0.110	27.2%	8.6%	14.9%	40.3%	3B	$3,200	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,400
4	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.371	0.330	0.231	33.8%	7.5%	18.5%	39.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,400
5	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.286	0.258	0.148	26.0%	6.6%	32.0%	39.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.365	0.327	0.231	37.7%	8.7%	16.3%	41.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600
7	Kennys Vargas	SWITCH	0.337	0.337	0.215	31.9%	4.3%	28.3%	41.8%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,400
8	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	C	$2,100	1B/C	$2,500	C	$4,800
9	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.288	0.309	0.135	32.3%	6.2%	19.0%	33.8%	SS	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,600

Estrada allows a ton of fly balls and home runs, so look to the power bats here. Brian Dozier and Max Kepler have the highest fly ball rates on the team, as both of them are over 40% for the year. They also happen to be the best power hitters on the team with Miguel Sano sidelined. They are the best options in this spot, and I prefer looking to individual power bats over a full stack. Estrada is difficult to stack against, because his fly ball ways make it difficult for teams to string hits together.

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.321	0.330	0.190	34.4%	13.1%	22.6%	34.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.389	0.379	0.249	33.7%	15.9%	23.1%	41.0%	3B	$3,800	3B	$5,100	3B	$9,900
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.371	0.395	0.280	41.7%	9.9%	22.7%	33.7%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.292	0.355	0.188	35.5%	7.8%	21.7%	47.6%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,600
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.347	0.317	0.174	31.5%	9.5%	18.5%	41.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	1B	$8,400
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.276	0.296	0.129	26.1%	5.4%	15.5%	46.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.292	0.278	0.139	29.8%	10.1%	20.9%	43.6%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.262	0.269	0.124	27.3%	7.3%	18.2%	46.5%	SS	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,100	2B	$6,000
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.225	0.254	0.089	17.6%	2.0%	15.1%	48.8%	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,400	2B	$4,800

Dillon Gee is not the gas can that some people make him out to be, but he can still be picked on with the right hitters. Gee has long been a traditional splits pitcher that has struggled more against left-handed hitters, as the wOBA split for his career is a very healthy 40 points different between handedness. Lefties are where we want to go here, but the current state of the Blue Jays lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Justin Smoak is the hottest hitter on the team and was the only one to do anything against Colon last night, and I am definitely on board with going back to the well there. The rest of the squad, well, isn’t all that exciting these days.

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, Miguel Montero (if he plays)

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Baltimore at Boston – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Boston
			Kevin Gausman							Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-142							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.325	32.9%	8.6%	21.8%	37.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.344	0.306	25.7%	9.1%	25.0%	36.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.353	0.338	32.4%	6.8%	22.2%	47.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.308	30.2%	8.8%	23.4%	30.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30
	2016	30	3.81	3.61	23.0%	6.2%	44.1%	31.1%	18.3%
	2017	27	4.61	5.25	20.9%	9.3%	42.0%	34.4%	18.3%
	L30	6	4.11	2.84	25.2%	9.0%	41.2%	37.3%	19.6%

In last Saturday’s Grind Down, I spent a lot of words discussing how Kevin Gausman was officially “back.” I am going to repeat those numbers here, which included his overall numbers by month this season.

April – 7.50 ERA, 20 K, 17 BB in 30 innings
May – 4.30 ERA, 22 K, 10 BB in 29 innings
June – 6.41 ERA, 25 K, 14 BB in 27 innings
July – 3.63 ERA, 45 K, 11 BB in 35 innings
August – 3.26 ERA, 20 K, 4 BB in 19 innings

Unfortunately, Gausman proceeded to have a terrible outing against the Angels. Now, he has to face a low strikeout, high walk Red Sox offense that has been playing much better in the second half. It takes Gausman out of the conversation in cash games, but I do like the GPP appeal at low ownership.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is too risky for cash game consideration this afternoon, but he is intriguing in tournament formats. His ownership should be low given the matchup and a poor performance his last time out.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Eduardo Rodriguez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	2016	20	4.44	4.71	21.8%	8.7%	31.6%	27.6%	22.2%
	2017	16	4.09	3.97	26.0%	8.9%	32.4%	31.4%	17.5%
	L30	5	4.33	4.73	24.2%	8.3%	26.6%	37.5%	18.8%

The Orioles scored about 100 runs last night against Rick Porcello and company, so the Red Sox are in need of a lengthy outing by Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod is always a guy that I don’t mind using in DFS, especially on shorter slates. His 26% strikeout rate is the best that you will find on the early slate, and his numbers are essentially slightly above average across the board. He is yet another fly ball pitcher, and the matchup is scary against a Baltimore offense that has been hot over the last couple weeks. However, no pitcher on the early slate is truly 100% safe, so we have to lower our expectations a bit. I’m on board with some Rodriguez exposure here.

Quick Breakdown: Thanks to the limited pitching options this afternoon, Rodriguez is in play for all formats. His strikeout rate is the best on the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.357	0.334	0.167	36.0%	9.2%	27.5%	46.7%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,700
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.360	0.398	0.258	47.2%	7.1%	15.7%	42.1%	3B	$4,200	3B	$5,300	3B	$10,400
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.394	0.375	0.300	39.3%	9.0%	23.9%	43.8%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,700
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.316	0.316	0.172	30.9%	6.7%	19.4%	41.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,600	CF	$8,800
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.288	0.313	0.127	33.0%	4.5%	26.3%	52.7%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,700
6	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.316	0.274	0.172	30.7%	6.5%	22.6%	40.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,500
7	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.303	0.311	0.130	32.8%	10.5%	39.5%	32.8%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
8	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.338	0.342	0.110	38.9%	3.9%	26.0%	35.2%	C	$3,100	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
9	Craig Gentry	RIGHT	0.289	0.298	0.143	29.4%	9.1%	29.1%	51.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600

Baltimore might be somewhat popular in this spot after blowing up last night, something they have done quite often lately. It would also stand to reason that their righty-heavy lineup would match up well with a LHP in Rodriguez. Not so fast! Rodriguez has actually shown strong reverse splits this year, and he has held RHBs to a very low .293 wOBA and sub-20% line drive rate. Be very careful here. I will be underweight on the bats from both sides of this game. I think this game goes under the 9 1/2 run total that is projected, though both offenses have the capability to score a lot of runs.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.349	0.271	0.133	25.7%	2.8%	10.7%	54.1%	2B	$3,500	2B/3B	$4,800	3B	$9,200
2	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.333	0.325	0.190	35.5%	9.2%	11.5%	40.1%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,400
3	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.353	0.347	0.189	38.2%	10.3%	16.0%	37.2%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,200	LF	$10,200
4	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.328	0.358	0.169	34.6%	8.7%	18.7%	41.6%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
5	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.460	0.380	0.389	41.9%	11.5%	18.0%	48.8%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,100
6	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.318	0.266	0.136	31.1%	7.0%	18.8%	47.9%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,100
7	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.329	0.379	0.190	41.6%	10.7%	22.7%	39.3%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
8	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.268	0.255	0.109	24.0%	7.6%	23.2%	46.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.307	0.268	0.087	27.2%	5.3%	18.2%	48.1%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	C	$6,300

Even though he struggled against the Angels, I am still a believer in Gausman’s turnaround. That is going to have me underweight on the Boston bats today, though that does make me a little nervous. The good news is that Boston really hasn’t showcased a lot of power upside all season long, so it is rare that fading them absolutely destroys your lineups. Gausman has largely been splits neutral this year, so we can’t make a ton of decisions based on that. I would side with the hotter bats here, which would mean avoiding the likes of Mookie Betts and playing Andrew Benintendi instead. Again, I’m not totally in love with this spot.

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Eduardo Nunez, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Washington
			Robert Gsellman							Gio Gonzalez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-200							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.326	36.7%	9.6%	21.3%	48.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.249	0.291	25.1%	7.3%	20.2%	55.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.345	0.324	28.8%	6.4%	15.3%	54.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.311	32.9%	9.0%	23.1%	44.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Robert Gsellman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,600
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30
	2016	7	3.76	2.42	22.7%	8.1%	54.2%	28.4%	18.1%
	2017	15	4.76	5.98	15.6%	7.7%	51.4%	33.7%	20.0%
	L30	1	7.04	3.38	8.7%	13.0%	27.8%	33.3%	16.7%

The Nationals lineup has been weakened by injuries, but not to the extent of the Mets lineup on the other side of this game. Gsellman has not been a quality starter for the Mets this year, posting an ERA close to 6.00 and a SIERA close to 5.00. His strikeout rate is way below league average at 15.3% this season, and there is no upside here in a road matchup where he is a large underdog.

Quick Breakdown: Gsellman can be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$12,500	Salary:		$24,300
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	32	3.96	4.57	22.4%	7.7%	47.6%	32.7%	18.1%
	2017	24	4.44	2.49	22.5%	9.7%	46.0%	29.2%	21.6%
	L30	4	4.16	0.96	21.7%	6.6%	45.2%	21.6%	20.3%

I am by no means a Gio Gonzalez supporter, but he stands alone as the clear-cut top pitcher on the afternoon slate. The Mets are bad right now. They are very bad. The lineup has been decimated by trades (Jay Bruce, Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson) and injuries (Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes), and what’s left really truly is a minor league lineup. This is a Triple-A team right now. Gio Gonzalez is vastly over-rated and has had success this year primarily thanks to good fortune. His SIERA is two runs higher than his ERA, and regression is surely coming, but that is unlikely to happen today. The Mets are just that bad, and that’s all there is to it.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez is a top option in all formats, because the Mets are a Triple-A offense right now. It pains me to use Gonzalez and top option in the same sentence, but I have to set my bias aside today.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.323	0.293	0.154	36.4%	4.5%	18.2%	37.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.358	0.314	0.083	36.6%	5.0%	13.9%	51.9%	3B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.321	0.338	0.268	44.4%	8.8%	22.5%	27.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,800
4	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.341	0.295	0.258	40.5%	2.0%	17.3%	35.4%	2B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
5	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.378	0.326	0.231	22.2%	7.1%	28.6%	44.4%	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600
6	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.374	0.324	0.234	34.7%	11.1%	20.8%	53.1%	C	$2,300	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
7	Matt Reynolds	RIGHT	0.256	0.232	0.000	42.9%	7.7%	38.5%	42.9%	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,300	SS	$4,500
8	Gavin Cecchini	RIGHT	0.373	0.331	0.300	33.3%	0.0%	40.0%	16.7%	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,400	SS	$4,800
9	Robert Gsellman	RIGHT	0.196	0.230	0.000	16.7%	12.5%	12.5%	75.0%	P	$6,300	P	$5,800	P	$11,600

Since the Mets are rolling out a minor league lineup right now and are facing the top pitching option of the afternoon, there’s not much appeal here. You could grab a total punt anywhere in the lineup if you want, but I’m not doing much. Wilmer Flores is the most intriguing option given his historical success against LHP.

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Amed Rosario

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.366	0.300	0.136	29.9%	5.3%	22.4%	63.2%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$8,800
2	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.267	0.276	0.070	20.0%	8.2%	21.6%	55.8%	SS	$2,900	2B/SS	$3,300	2B	$6,400
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.389	0.369	0.245	35.1%	8.1%	9.2%	33.1%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.385	0.376	0.262	40.5%	7.1%	21.5%	47.5%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
5	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.361	0.379	0.209	41.1%	8.1%	15.2%	43.7%	OF	$2,300	1B/OF	$3,200	1B	$6,300
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.386	0.368	0.229	34.3%	13.5%	14.6%	35.1%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,200
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.267	0.292	0.113	31.3%	6.5%	19.0%	41.0%	C	$2,800	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.326	0.284	0.214	33.8%	6.7%	32.6%	42.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.137	0.153	0.000	3.9%	4.3%	39.1%	55.0%	P	$9,500	P	$12,500	P	$24,300

Gsellman has been largely splits-neutral this season, and he has allowed seven home runs to LHBs and seven home runs to RHBs on the season. The batted ball profile slightly favors LHBs, but it’s not enough to make concrete decisions based simply on that. As with some other spots today, it’s best to let your roster construction be the guide here. If you need expensive bats, Murphy and Zimmerman are the top plays. If you need cheaper bats, Wieters and Difo enter the conversation. It’s a decent spot for the Nationals here.

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Lind (value)

Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters, Wilmer Difo, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Texas								Oakland
			Cole Hamels							Sean Manaea
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-100							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.255	0.299	31.8%	8.0%	19.3%	57.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.255	0.286	26.1%	4.2%	20.1%	55.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.325	34.0%	8.8%	21.5%	48.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.337	36.0%	7.7%	21.2%	40.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Cole Hamels
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$12,100	Salary:		$23,600
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016	32	3.99	3.32	23.6%	9.1%	49.6%	32.0%	20.4%
	2017	15	4.87	3.48	15.7%	7.8%	50.5%	36.6%	13.2%
	L30	5	4.30	2.91	18.8%	8.0%	57.1%	33.3%	13.1%

Cole Hamels carries a lot of name value. Unfortunately, that’s about all he carries right now. His numbers have drastically declined across the board this season, as he now has a SIERA of 4.89, xFIP of 4.78, and an alarmingly low 15.4% strikeout rate. He is a shell of his former self, and it makes zero sense to pay up for him anymore. His decent ERA is simply a mirage based on a lucky .230 BABIP. Why on earth does he cost $12,100 on DraftKings? That’s just ridiculous.

Quick Breakdown: Don’t pay for the historical name brand of Cole Hamels. All you are getting is the generic prescription at this point.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sean Manaea
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$11,700
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30
	2016	24	4.04	3.86	20.9%	6.2%	44.2%	33.6%	18.4%
	2017	23	4.42	4.58	21.1%	8.0%	43.2%	34.6%	15.4%
	L30	6	5.73	8.17	10.4%	4.8%	31.1%	38.7%	12.3%

Sean Manaea is a talented pitcher with a bright future, but he has taken his lumps in 2017. His ERA and SIERA sit in the mid-fours, and he has been even worse in August. In his last four starts, he has pitched a total of just 12 2/3 innings, allowing 16 earned runs in the process. That maths out to an 11.37 ERA, and he has just FOUR total strikeouts in that span. Yikes. The Rangers are not a great offense against LHP, but Manaea simply can’t be recommended at this point.

Quick Breakdown: Manaea is impossible to trust with his recent form, but I would still roster him before Hamels if forced to choose between the two. If you want to take a super risk/reward approach in a GPP, I don’t absolutely hate the idea, but there’s tons of risk.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.350	0.265	0.151	30.9%	12.9%	32.7%	31.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
2	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.329	0.339	0.056	21.9%	15.5%	15.5%	62.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,700
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.329	0.282	0.206	33.0%	5.3%	14.9%	47.3%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,400
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.406	0.351	0.146	38.6%	16.4%	9.8%	40.9%	3B	$4,100	3B	$5,200	3B	$10,000
5	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.242	0.230	0.060	17.7%	5.4%	23.9%	66.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,000
6	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.328	0.326	0.306	43.1%	8.6%	36.6%	25.5%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,600
7	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.214	0.241	0.094	34.1%	1.6%	21.0%	51.7%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
8	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.377	0.309	0.224	35.3%	12.5%	26.8%	26.5%	C	$2,800	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
9	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.256	0.288	0.130	41.4%	4.2%	35.4%	41.4%	OF	$2,000	1B/OF	$2,300	IF/OF	$4,400

Manaea is a traditional splits lefty who struggles more against RHBs, but the Rangers have not been good against southpaws this year. The only hitter with a wOBA over .340 against lefties is Joey Gallo, and he doesn’t always even start against lefties. This is not an ideal spot, and I might end up talking myself into some Manaea exposure in GPPs. That’s a scary thought.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre, Delino DeShields

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.299	0.308	0.113	30.0%	11.5%	21.3%	56.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
2	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.318	0.301	0.115	43.6%	13.3%	21.7%	43.6%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.299	0.319	0.106	29.3%	11.2%	18.7%	44.0%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,600
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.293	0.378	0.180	55.4%	15.0%	32.7%	41.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,900
5	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.416	0.358	0.286	32.9%	3.0%	18.8%	35.4%	1B	$3,400	1B/3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
6	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.265	0.322	0.133	31.1%	7.5%	25.4%	35.6%	OF	$2,200	OF/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,600
7	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.271	0.324	0.178	33.3%	8.0%	38.0%	11.1%	3B	$2,700	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,600
8	Dustin Garneau	RIGHT	0.250	0.219	0.178	27.6%	4.1%	34.7%	35.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,200
9	Boog Powell	LEFT	0.262	0.363	0.000	20.0%	16.7%	0.0%	60.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,700

This is a sneaky good spot for the Oakland offense. They have several hitters that profile better against LHP, and Hamels can be picked on more than some DFS players realize. Hamels is still solid against left-handed hitters, but his ground ball rate deteriorates and his line drive rate rises against RHBs. Fire up the top of the order RHBs with confidence and as a sneaky stack on the afternoon docket.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 26th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Seattle at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Todd Frazier, Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, Miguel Montero (if he plays)

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Baltimore at Boston – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Eduardo Nunez, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Amed Rosario

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Lind (value)

Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters, Wilmer Difo, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre, Delino DeShields

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Marcus Semien

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy, Chad Pinder, Matt Chapman

Stackability – YELLOW

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author