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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 1st

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-07-02 01:16:06

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
bostonmlb Chris Sale torontomlb Francisco Liriano
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-145 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.253 0.253 25.8% 2.6% 30.4% 52.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.295 30.9% 7.6% 24.6% 58.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.271 0.283 31.9% 5.2% 28.4% 38.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.348 0.335 35.1% 12.9% 21.9% 47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $13,500 Salary: $26,100
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.43 3.34 25.7% 5.0% 41.2% 31.7% 17.0%
2017 15 2.61 2.85 35.1% 4.6% 38.6% 29.3% 15.3%

Welcome to the MLB Grind Down. There are 17 games on the schedule today with a total of four teams involved in doubleheaders. How the games are divided up largely depends where you play at. FanDuel is the one site that has broken things down into small slates. They aren’t including the second game of either doubleheader and have also split the afternoon slate up. Pretty much everywhere else you have 10 games in the afternoon and seven games on the night slate. Even with this many games on the schedule there aren’t near as many sure things as you would expect at pitcher. We’ll kick things off with one of the few true aces going today.

On the season, Chris Sale owns a 2.77 ERA, 35.2% K rate, 4.8% BB rate and 2.61 SIERA. His 35% K rate is backed by a 16.2% SwStr%. Sale is pitching as well as anyone in baseball right now. He owns a .240 wOBA vs. LH and .239 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The Blue Jays check in at 20.8% K rate, .322 wOBA and 99 wRC+ against LH pitching. In his only meeting with the Blue Jays this season, Sale struck out 13 through eight innings while allowing just four hits.

Quick Breakdown: The Blue Jays feature a respectable amount of power which makes Sale’s price tag tough to stomach. That said, he’s the safest option on the board if you can find the punt plays to make it work. He’s already proven that he can handle this matchup.

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.38 4.69 23.0% 11.6% 52.0% 34.8% 19.4%
2017 12 4.95 5.46 21.1% 12.1% 44.5% 32.5% 13.0%

Through 12 starts this season, Francisco Liriano owns a 5.46 ERA, 21.1% K rate and 12.1% BB rate. At this point in the season, I probably don’t need to re-explain Liriano. Ge gets himself in trouble with walks and then compounds the problem. He owns a .374 wOBA vs. RH and .282 wOBA vs. LH hitters. In fact, Liriano has mostly been elite against LH hitters with a 31.3% K rate and 2.1% BB rate. It is RH hitters who have beat him up for an 18.8% K rate, 14.4% BB rate and have hit seven of Liriano’s eight home runs. The Red Sox check in at 16.3% K rate, .324 wOBA and 100 wRC+. They also own a 10.3% BB rate.

Quick Breakdown: There’s realistically no way that we can trust we can trust Liriano against this Red Sox offense. If you are looking for a tournament pitcher, there are plenty of better options in this price range. The Red Sox are one of the more disciplined teams in the league at the plate with a 10.3% BB rate.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Feel free to fire up Red Sox RH hitters as they own a .374 wOBA vs. Liriano this season. Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are elite options here as they all hit RH pitching with a wOBA over .350. If they make the lineup, Sam Travis, Sandy Leon and Chris Young are acceptable punt plays or pieces that can help fill out a Red Sox stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.351 0.344 0.257 36.0% 5.2% 8.9% 37.4% OF $4,200 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.362 0.354 0.111 31.8% 14.6% 11.7% 40.8% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.357 0.333 0.151 33.1% 9.8% 16.5% 45.8% SS $3,400 SS $4,500 SS $8,700
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.338 0.344 0.163 37.9% 8.4% 23.8% 50.5% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
5 Chris Young RIGHT 0.373 0.331 0.181 33.7% 10.7% 18.3% 23.9% P $5,500 P $5,000 LF $7,600
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.335 0.287 0.158 31.8% 8.8% 24.6% 52.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
7 Sam Travis RIGHT 0.479 0.308 0.118 6.7% 10.5% 10.5% 53.3% 1B $2,300 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.409 0.361 0.216 27.1% 10.2% 16.9% 40.5% C $2,400 C $3,400 C $6,600
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.359 0.335 0.343 36.0% 5.3% 28.9% 40.0% SS $2,400 3B $2,700 3B $5,200

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Sam Travis, Sandy Leon and Chris Young

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Toronto

The Blue Jays against Chris Sale is probably one of the least enticing spots on the slate. Over the past two seasons, Sale owns a .253 wOBA vs. LH and .271 wOBA vs. RH hitters. Outside of some sort of contrarian tournament lineup, I don’t really see the case for using a Blue Jay bat. Especially not with several great stack-against options elsewhere.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.287 0.341 0.149 35.9% 13.9% 20.6% 45.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.313 0.361 0.161 42.7% 15.8% 28.1% 40.6% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,700
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.406 0.414 0.245 38.9% 18.6% 13.8% 34.9% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.345 0.368 0.171 34.4% 9.8% 15.3% 40.2% 1B $2,600 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.387 0.399 0.233 40.6% 4.5% 20.1% 39.6% 1B $2,600 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.301 0.316 0.155 29.8% 9.1% 15.2% 46.8% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.398 0.366 0.287 44.1% 12.1% 23.5% 38.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 1B $6,000
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.351 0.319 0.175 35.0% 3.9% 14.0% 37.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.309 0.292 0.077 24.4% 8.1% 17.4% 42.1% SS $2,100 2B/3B $2,400 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin detroitmlb Anibal Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.323 38.2% 2.1% 15.8% 45.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.313 29.1% 9.7% 20.9% 40.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.362 0.352 32.3% 3.1% 17.2% 40.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.385 0.344 36.8% 6.1% 19.6% 37.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.24 4.40 16.3% 2.8% 43.8% 33.9% 16.4%
2017 15 4.30 6.09 17.3% 2.6% 40.2% 37.0% 13.9%

Through 15 starts this season, Josh Tomlin owns a 6.09 ERA, 17.3% K rate and 2.6% BB rate. He’s shown elite control by barely walking anyone. Normally, pitchers with great control get a lot of ground balls but Tomlin checks in at just 40%. He’s also allowing 37% hard contact. He’ll face a Tigers offense that owns a 22.8% K rate, .3219 wOBA and 97 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: Given his low strikeout ability and elevated hard contact rate, Tomlin is best avoided in all formats.

Anibal Sanchez
anibal-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.39 5.87 20.2% 7.9% 39.6% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 2 4.36 6.75 20.5% 8.0% 36.3% 38.7% 16.0%

Anibal Sanchez owns a 6.75 ERA through two starts this season. He’s shown average strikeout ability at 20.6% and is allowing walks at 8%. The big issue with Sanchez is 38% hard contact. That’s led to 100 home runs in just 31 innings (including bullpen work). The Indians own a 19.9% K rate, .331 wOBA and 104 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez can safely be avoided in all formats against a ow-strikeout Indians offense that features plenty of power.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

We can fire up Indians from both sides of the plate as Sanchez owns a .340 wOBA vs. LH and .3870 wOBA vs. Rh hitters the past two seasons. Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez are all strong options. The Indians stack is also in play in all formats as I don’t have much faith in Anibal Sanchez against this Indians lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.341 0.344 0.193 37.5% 9.2% 19.7% 37.0% 2B $3,100 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.341 0.342 0.167 27.2% 8.9% 12.2% 46.1% SS $3,700 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.337 0.348 0.138 40.0% 9.6% 14.0% 51.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.367 0.382 0.260 38.0% 11.0% 20.7% 38.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.373 0.343 0.187 28.8% 7.5% 9.6% 38.4% 3B $4,100 2B/3B $5,300 IF/OF $10,200
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.371 0.398 0.256 37.1% 15.4% 17.0% 35.6% 1B $3,300 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.347 0.313 0.192 29.5% 5.6% 16.1% 33.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.219 0.259 0.131 28.6% 4.8% 27.1% 38.8% C $2,400 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.386 0.368 0.234 34.0% 11.5% 27.6% 40.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,500

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor and Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Detroit

The Tigers are also in a great spot here against Josh Tomlin as he is allowing 37% hard contact. He’s allowed a .310 wOBA vs. LH and .362 wOBA vs. RH hitters over the past two seasons. Fire up Alex Avila, Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez with confidence. If building a Tigers stack, Justin Upton can even be tossed in as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.341 0.327 0.174 35.0% 7.3% 15.4% 33.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.387 0.405 0.231 49.4% 17.3% 33.5% 38.6% C $3,100 1B/C $3,400 C $6,800
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.339 0.349 0.229 39.7% 9.2% 28.5% 37.6% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.381 0.447 0.239 42.0% 10.3% 17.1% 41.4% 1B $4,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.375 0.399 0.244 42.3% 10.5% 26.4% 42.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.337 0.386 0.174 41.4% 8.7% 14.4% 37.6% 1B $2,800 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
7 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.345 0.378 0.185 40.3% 7.0% 25.1% 35.5% 3B $2,800 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
8 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.223 0.231 0.092 35.7% 4.6% 38.3% 41.7% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
9 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.291 0.290 0.112 26.9% 7.3% 20.3% 46.6% OF $2,200 2B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,700

Elite Plays – Alex Avila, Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Texas at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Texas Chicago White Sox
texasmlb Cole Hamels whitesoxmlb Derek Holland
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS-100 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 0.300 30.8% 9.1% 20.3% 56.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.251 0.263 21.4% 5.6% 22.2% 53.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.328 33.0% 9.1% 22.4% 47.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.362 0.369 37.5% 9.0% 15.5% 35.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Cole Hamels
cole-hamels-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.99 3.32 23.6% 9.1% 49.6% 32.0% 20.4%
2017 5 5.65 3.03 11.5% 9.2% 46.5% 36.0% 14.0%

Because of injury, Cole Hamels has made just six starts this season. He owns a 4.38 ERA, 10.3% K rate and 10.3% BB rate. It’s tough to know what’s wrong with Hamels for sure. The injury could have been holding him back but a 6.7% SwStr% rate on the season is not going to get the job done. We’ve only seen Hamels make one start post injury and it was not pretty. He gave up seven runs on eight hits through just 4.1 innings. The White Sox are a team people like to pick on but you shouldn’t with LH pitchers. They own a 19.4% K rate, .360 wOBA and 124 wRC+. That’s the highest wOBA in the league vs. LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: A common tournament strategy is to try to find a pitcher like Hamels who is rebounding after an injury. The main issues here are 1.) We aren’t getting a discount and 2.) Hamels hasn’t shown an ability to strikeout batters. I’m not entirely sure Hamels is actually rebounding right now. Taking the wait-and-see approach here is the prudent move.

Derek Holland
derek-holland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 5.10 4.95 14.5% 7.6% 38.3% 32.2% 17.7%
2017 15 4.86 4.26 19.3% 9.4% 38.4% 38.3% 21.3%

Through 15 starts this season, Derek Holland owns a 4.26 ERA, 19.3% K rate and 9.4% BB rate. Holland is somehow getting by despite a 40% fly ball rate and 38.3% hard contact. With Holland though, what we really want to look at are the splits. He owns a .382 wOBA vs. RH compared to .240 vs. LH hitters. All 16 of his home runs have been RH hitters. That makes sense as Holland owns a 43.5% fly ball rate and 41.4% hard contact vs. RH hitters. The Rangers now lead the league in K rate vs. LH pitching at 27.7%. They also own a .289 wOBA and 73 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: While Holland might be interesting as an SP2 in tournaments, I’m more likely to side with the Rangers RH power hitters today. If the Rangers go with a RH-heavy lineup, this isn’t a great spot for Holland even against a Rangers offense that is below average against LH pitching and owns a 27.7% K rate.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The ideal options here are Rangers RH power hitters. Adrian Beltre best fits that description as he owns a .406 wOBA vs. LH pitching and a 41.5% hard contact rate. Elvis Andrus and Delino DeShields also make sense even though both feature less power than someone like Beltre. If you are look for a couple of sneaky Mike Napoli owns a 40.7% hard contact rate vs. LH and Robinson Chirinos smashes LH pitching with a .406 wOBA and 44% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.286 0.240 0.076 25.0% 9.7% 27.6% 46.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.356 0.311 0.155 29.9% 7.0% 13.6% 49.4% SS $3,300 SS $4,900 SS $9,600
3 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.406 0.383 0.255 41.5% 12.6% 9.6% 43.1% 3B $3,800 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
4 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.266 0.244 0.126 29.4% 4.5% 34.2% 45.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.276 0.303 0.130 36.5% 3.6% 21.4% 44.8% 2B $3,100 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
6 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.326 0.359 0.216 35.6% 8.1% 18.9% 39.3% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,300
7 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.346 0.348 0.207 40.7% 14.0% 32.0% 36.3% 1B $2,500 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.261 0.266 0.057 21.0% 5.2% 23.3% 60.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
9 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.379 0.349 0.320 44.4% 13.8% 24.1% 33.3% C $2,900 C $3,600 C $7,200

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus and Delino DeShields

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli and Robinson Chirinos

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are almost always a sneaky stack against LH pitching. They won’t be highly owned because of Hamels’ name value but this iteration of Hamels isn’t particularly good. Over the past two seasons, Hamels owns a .317 wOBA vs. RH hitting. Jose Abreu would be the top option here as he owns a .393 wOBA vs. LH pitching. Tim Anderson would be my preferred value option as he owns a 37.2% hard contact rate and hits LH pitching well. That said, the White Sox are best utilized as a tournament stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.339 0.306 0.102 37.2% 2.3% 26.7% 54.2% SS $2,700 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.364 0.302 0.201 31.6% 5.2% 14.6% 43.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.393 0.416 0.241 42.3% 8.6% 18.6% 45.5% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.368 0.365 0.171 43.8% 7.0% 23.2% 54.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.342 0.347 0.267 32.5% 13.4% 24.9% 22.0% 3B $3,500 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.415 0.355 0.294 28.6% 8.1% 25.7% 28.6% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $2,800 3B $5,400
7 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.261 0.257 0.119 19.1% 6.2% 19.5% 48.8% 2B $2,500 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
8 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.210 0.254 0.088 21.7% 0.0% 19.0% 57.8% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.492 0.414 0.000 0.0% 10.0% 30.0% 20.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,100 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Minnesota at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Minnesota Kansas City
minnesotamlb Jose Berrios kansascitymlb Luke Farrell
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.337 28.3% 11.9% 18.4% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.302 29.6% 8.5% 23.1% 40.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Berrios
jose-berrios-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $11,300 Salary: $22,000
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 5.36 8.02 17.4% 12.5% 38.0% 33.3% 18.2%
2017 8 3.88 2.67 25.2% 7.1% 44.8% 22.8% 17.7%

The Royals and Twins will play a doubleheader today. Jose Berrios will get the ball in the first game against Luke Farrell. Berrios has been great in eight starts this season with a 2.67 ERA, 25.2% K rate and 7.1% BB rate. In the chart above you can see Berrios’ numbers over the last two seasons. To me, it’s more important what he’s done this season. He owns a .293 wOBA vs. LH and .224 wOBA vs. RH hitting. He’ll face a Twins offense that owns a 22.3% K rate, .322 wOBA and 98 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Berrios is one of three high-priced pitchers on the early slate. Of the three, Berrios has the shortest track record but does have the best matchup. He’s a viable pivot off Sale and Carrasco in any format.

Luke Farrell
-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Luke Farrell gets the call up from AAA to make a spot start today for the Royals. He’s not in the player pool anywhere so we don’t have to consider him as a pitching option. This season in AAA he has a 32.8% ground ball rate and 22.8% K rate. He’s done a decent job suppressing home runs with a HR/FB rate of 7.8%. His ERA also looks decent by AAA standards at 3.83.

Quick Breakdown: Even if you wanted to, you can’t pitch Farrell today as he’s not in the player pool.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Without much to go on, we’ll have to lean on the hitting statistics for the Twins offense. This is a bit of a wild card option as these MLB debuts typically go either really well or really poorly. Any of the Twins bats that you would normally use are in play again today. Joe Mauer owns a .345 wOBA vs. LH pitching, Brian Dozier checks in at .346 and Miguel Sano checks in at .348

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.346 0.327 0.238 33.4% 9.3% 19.3% 37.7% 2B $3,300 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.345 0.393 0.137 34.7% 13.7% 15.2% 47.1% 1B $3,400 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.348 0.348 0.233 43.6% 11.4% 36.0% 34.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.339 0.319 0.211 35.5% 9.5% 18.6% 42.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
5 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.311 0.302 0.221 33.8% 8.3% 31.9% 36.8% 1B $2,600 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.328 0.291 0.203 34.2% 4.7% 22.9% 44.8% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.306 0.297 0.116 24.4% 7.7% 13.8% 35.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
8 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.274 0.235 0.155 23.5% 6.2% 35.4% 39.5% OF $2,300 OF $2,200 CF $4,400
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.321 0.324 0.188 37.8% 12.4% 31.8% 41.0% C $2,700 C $3,000 C $6,000

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Kansas City

It’s a little more difficult to get excited about the Royals offense against Jose Berrios. He’s one of the more usable pitching options on the slate. He owns a .293 wOBA vs. LH and .224 wOBA vs. RH hitting this season. If going here, I would likely hunt for a home run with the Royals LH bats in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas who each own a wOBA over .350 vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.300 0.293 0.124 31.9% 4.8% 18.1% 41.8% 2B $2,900 2B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
2 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.344 0.350 0.216 33.0% 9.6% 23.7% 37.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.326 0.314 0.126 30.5% 7.6% 20.9% 47.6% OF $3,300 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.353 0.358 0.175 34.8% 9.6% 18.7% 56.2% 1B $3,200 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.323 0.309 0.204 37.6% 3.3% 20.6% 33.8% C $3,100 C $3,600 C $7,200
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.356 0.362 0.271 35.3% 6.7% 15.7% 35.3% 3B $3,400 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
7 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.306 0.295 0.171 29.8% 13.6% 26.7% 40.5% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 RF $5,600
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.261 0.249 0.080 22.7% 3.2% 16.5% 46.2% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.290 0.321 0.149 35.6% 10.0% 26.6% 39.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 LF $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 4:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Baltimore
tampabaymlb Jake Odorizzi baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-125 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 0.284 30.2% 6.6% 24.2% 37.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.332 32.6% 8.3% 15.9% 33.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.347 37.0% 7.8% 19.1% 34.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.316 29.8% 8.8% 24.4% 34.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.21 3.69 21.5% 7.0% 36.6% 33.7% 16.8%
2017 14 4.63 4.00 20.5% 8.0% 32.6% 35.8% 14.0%

Through 14 starts this season Jake Odorizzi owns a 4.0 ERA, 20.5% K rate and 8% BB rate. Odorizzi has some fly ball tendencies at 43.1% and is getting hit relatively hard at 35.7%. He owns a .336 wOBA vs. LH and .316 wOBA vs. RH hitters on the season. Odorizzi is basically a slightly above average MLB pitcher in nearly every possible way. The Orioles check in with a 22.9% K rate, .317 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: No matter what you do at SP2 today, you’re going to have to take on some risk. Jake Odorizzi is one the the more expensive SP2 options. Based on his numbers from this season, we should probably look elsewhere but I’ll call him a fringe SP2 in tournaments.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 16 5.00 3.73 18.2% 8.2% 32.3% 34.9% 20.6%

Through 16 starts this season, Dylan Bundy owns a 3.73 ERA, 18.2% K rate and 8.2% BB rate. Bundy has possibly been the best pitcher on the Orioles staff this season. He does have a bit of a fly ball problem at 46.2% this season. When added in with his 34.9% hard contact what you get is a .331 woBA vs. LH and .306 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The Rays are a good matchup strikeout wise for RH pitchers at 24.7%. They own a .340 wOBA 115 wRC+ and a .203 ISO. Bundy just faced this same Rays team last Saturday scoring 24.4 DK points on seven innings, eight strikeouts and three runs allowed.

Quick Breakdown: Speaking of taking on some risk, Dylan Bundy gets a great matchup for strikeouts against the Rays but he’s priced more expensive than Odorizzi. If Bundy were cheaper, this would be a great spot for him. He’s shown upside in this matchup scoring 24.4 last weekend against these same Rays but I’m always apprehensive to play a pitcher against a team in back-to-back starts. This is best suited for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Dylan Bundy owns a .326 wOBA vs. LH and .321 wOBA vs. RH pitching over the past two seasons. There is a big difference in K% though as he strikes out LH 15.9% vs. 24.4% against RH hitters. The preference here would be Rays LH power hitters. Logan Morrison tops that list with a .348 wOBA and 40.6% hard contact rate against LH pitching. Mallex Smith and Corey Dickerson also belong in that same category. If completing a low-owned Rays stack, you can also toss in Evan Longoria and Steven Souza

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.358 0.274 0.134 21.3% 11.3% 19.0% 58.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.356 0.324 0.267 33.3% 6.4% 21.7% 34.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.351 0.351 0.237 36.0% 6.1% 19.3% 35.6% 3B $3,300 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.348 0.371 0.252 40.3% 11.2% 22.5% 39.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.348 0.328 0.210 32.8% 10.0% 31.5% 40.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.346 0.342 0.157 35.5% 6.3% 16.2% 55.3% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,300
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.324 0.303 0.195 43.8% 5.2% 31.3% 44.2% SS $3,200 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
8 Shane Peterson LEFT 0.306 0.249 0.195 34.4% 4.4% 22.2% 40.6% OF $2,100 OF $2,100 LF $4,000
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.253 0.299 0.069 29.3% 4.8% 12.3% 48.1% SS $2,100 SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Baltimore

The Orioles always seem to have an inflated Vegas total. That’s the case again today as the over/under for this game is at 11. Joke Odorizzi is getting hit hard at 35.7% this season. There’s some merit to hunting for a home run here. Seth Smith has a pretty large gap between his .338 wOBA and .372 xwOBA which implies he’s been a little unlucky. Pretty much everyone batting two through six here though has an ISO over .196. You could play any of Jones, Machado, Schoop, Mancini or Trumbo as a one-off play or as part of an Orioles stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.338 0.372 0.177 33.8% 10.7% 21.0% 46.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.341 0.358 0.238 35.6% 7.0% 19.3% 38.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.343 0.316 0.206 29.8% 3.4% 20.1% 42.2% 2B $3,300 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.338 0.338 0.196 32.5% 5.1% 16.8% 43.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.366 0.376 0.253 36.8% 8.4% 23.4% 39.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.437 0.368 0.303 36.5% 7.4% 25.7% 50.0% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,800
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.310 0.298 0.149 33.7% 6.1% 27.0% 40.9% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.346 0.348 0.110 29.7% 9.3% 14.7% 50.2% OF $2,100 OF $2,200 IF/OF $4,000
9 Paul Janish RIGHT 0.145 0.264 0.000 22.7% 3.3% 23.3% 25.0% SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,200 SS $4,200

Elite Plays – Seth Smith

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado and Adam Jones

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

San Francisco Pittsburgh
sanfranciscomlb Matt Moore pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-127 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.348 36.7% 8.5% 19.6% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.405 0.356 36.7% 9.1% 17.1% 36.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.326 32.8% 8.6% 20.6% 37.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.289 28.7% 6.8% 19.4% 48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Moore
matt-moore-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.39 4.08 21.2% 8.6% 38.2% 30.8% 15.3%
2017 16 4.88 6.04 18.5% 8.5% 37.1% 39.5% 15.5%

Matt Moore owns a 6.04 ERA, 18.5% K rate and 8.5% BB rate through 16 starts this season. Like several others on this slate, he’s a fly ball pitcher. He owns a 41.9% fly ball rate along with a 39.5% hard contact rate. This season, he owns a .460 wOBA vs. LH and .368 vs. RH hitters. He hasn’t been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career though but rather splits-neutral (.322 vs. LH, .317 vs. RH). The Pirates own a 20.6% K rate, .298 wOBA and 83 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even against a below average Pirates offense, Matt Moore comes with more risk than I would want to take on. The Pirates have not put up great offensive numbers but they have a couple of bats that can hit LH pitching well.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 4.20 17.6% 6.6% 44.3% 33.0% 19.6%
2017 15 4.80 5.58 19.0% 9.0% 41.8% 31.8% 15.5%

Chad Kuhl owns a 5.58 ERA, 19% K rate and 9% BB rate through 15 starts this season. With Kuhl, the story is simple. He owns a .405 wOBA vs. LH and a .291 wOBA vs. RH in his career. He just absolutely cannot get LH hitters out. The Giants do not have the fiercest offense with a 19.5% K rate, .290 wOBA and 79 wRC+. Whether you can use Kuhl in this spot depends almost entirely on how many LH batters the Giants feature in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: This is another spot where I’m very likely to pass. The Giants should have at least four LH hitters in the top six today. Until Kuhl figures out how to get LH hitters out, he’s off limits for me.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

As mentioned above, Giants LH hitters are what we want here. That starts with Brandon Belt who owns a .369 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Denard Span and Joe Panik are also worth a look if they are batting at the top of the order again. Even Brandon Crawford is usable in tournaments as he owns a 34.3% hard contact rate vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.335 0.337 0.148 26.2% 8.0% 12.1% 47.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.316 0.333 0.162 26.6% 9.5% 8.3% 44.8% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.325 0.313 0.114 28.6% 8.3% 21.0% 59.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.340 0.366 0.138 33.8% 8.9% 11.2% 48.1% C $3,600 1B/C $4,400 C $8,400
5 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.369 0.395 0.211 38.4% 16.5% 22.3% 26.7% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.312 0.326 0.164 34.3% 8.7% 18.8% 44.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
7 Jae-gyun Hwang RIGHT 3B $2,300 3B $2,700 3B $5,200
8 Austin Slater RIGHT 0.338 0.303 0.132 17.1% 6.8% 20.3% 65.9% OF $2,700 OF $2,500 RF $4,800
9 Matt Moore LEFT 0.072 0.115 0.000 23.5% 1.9% 35.2% 73.9% P $7,600 P $5,900 P $11,700

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt and Denard Span

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Pittsburgh

Any of the Pirates power hitters are in play against Matt Moore as he owns a 39.5% hard contact rate and has fly ball tendencies. My preferred options here would be David Freese and Andrew McCutchen. Neither has rally done anything lately to inspire confidence though. We’re mostly leaning on a wOBA over .375 the past two seasons. Josh Harrison can also be tossed into the group of Pirates that hit LH pitching well and have decent power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.348 0.296 0.018 16.0% 4.8% 12.9% 59.2% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.375 0.305 0.195 33.6% 5.4% 15.0% 38.2% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $4,300 2B $8,400
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.375 0.374 0.255 37.6% 13.6% 16.8% 36.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.390 0.361 0.173 42.6% 13.5% 25.8% 61.7% 3B $2,700 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
5 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.282 0.262 0.159 22.2% 6.4% 17.0% 55.6% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.262 0.313 0.165 26.6% 9.0% 18.0% 56.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.310 0.331 0.151 28.6% 13.0% 14.6% 46.6% SS $2,400 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
8 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.289 0.266 0.125 30.8% 5.9% 17.6% 61.5% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.176 0.135 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% P $6,700 P $5,700 P $11,400

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen and David Freese

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.