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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 10th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2016-09-10 23:22:07

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Chicago Cubs at Houston – 1:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Houston
Article Image John Lackey Article Image Collin McHugh
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -110 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.315 17 31.4% 16.9% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.318 18 25.4% 21.2%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.263 23 32.3% 25.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.341 25 28.7% 20.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $10,900
FPPG: 35.8 FPPG: 19.8
Pitcher Rating: 74.9 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 94.7 3.68 0.92 21.4% 4.3% 10.2% 46.0% 28.0% 35.3%
2016 25 99.2 3.74 3.36 24.8% 6.8% 11.5% 40.3% 36.5% 34.5%
2015 33 94.8 3.90 2.77 19.5% 5.9% 9.4% 46.0% 33.3% 30.1%

Home:—ERA: 2.15 — K%: 21.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.268
Away:—ERA: 4.17 — K%: 21.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.310

Lackey has been solid for the Cubs this year and has a lot of blue in that ERA box. Over the last three starts, he holds an ERA of under a run and has a solid 24.8% strikeout rate on the year. He gets a boom-or-bust matchup today against the Astros, who have a lot of power in the lineup, but also strikeout at the third-highest rate in the league at 23.9%.

Collin McHugh
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,200
FPPG: 27.1 FPPG: 13.2
Pitcher Rating: 66.5 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 89.4 4.16 6.46 20.2% 6.4% 10.3% 42.9% 32.5% 24.1%
2016 28 94.9 3.96 4.96 22.2% 6.4% 10.8% 42.9% 36.0% 30.0%
2015 32 101.3 3.91 3.89 19.9% 6.2% 10.3% 45.4% 34.6% 25.1%

Home:—ERA: 3.80 — K%: 22.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.318
Away:—ERA: 4.91 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.342

McHugh has not been good lately, as his ERA has risen to 4.96 after a bad string of starts. His SIERA shows some improvements should be made as it sits over a full run lower at 3.96. His strikeout rate of 22.2% allows for some upside, but again, the matchup today is tough against a Cubs squad that is ranked 10th in wOBA against righties and 3rd overall in runs per game. I would rather target the pitchers in the Yankees game this afternoon.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

McHugh has allowed a wOBA of .357+ from both sides of the plate this year. The Cubs are small favorites today with a total of 8.5, putting some of their bats in play on the afternoon slate today, as this team continues to roll along with win after win.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.329 0.162 27.7% 0.244 OF $3,400 OF $4,200
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.386 0.233 40.2% 0.417 3B $4,000 3B/OF $4,700
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.396 0.268 36.8% 0.369 1B $4,600 1B $5,200
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.340 0.165 30.9% 0.244 2B $3,400 2B $3,800
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.320 0.154 29.4% 0.220 SS $2,500 SS $3,500
6 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.317 0.156 35.6% 0.401 OF $2,300 OF $3,900
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.290 0.141 27.1% 0.247 SS $2,800 2B/3B $3,200
8 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.322 0.133 29.3% 0.257 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
9 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.328 0.182 32.4% 0.264 C $3,000 C/OF $3,600
Team Averages — 0.336 0.177 32.2% 0.296 — — — —

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

Lackey has held batters from both sides of the plate to a wOBA of under .299 on the year, and Vegas has the Astros at a projected run total of 4.19, which is in the bottom half of the league totals today. There are better offenses to target on the day slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.338 0.169 29.7% 0.350 OF $4,000 OF $4,000
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.347 0.225 29.9% 0.420 3B $3,300 3B $3,700
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.355 0.169 29.3% 0.251 2B $3,600 2B $4,800
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.382 0.152 17.2% 0.341 3B $3,000 3B $2,300
5 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.318 0.208 34.8% 0.371 OF $2,700 OF $3,300
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.297 0.140 31.6% 0.355 1B $2,600 1B $3,000
7 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.321 0.225 31.6% 0.414 C $2,700 C $3,500
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.322 0.197 37.5% 0.380 C $2,500 C $3,000
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.267 0.094 24.3% 0.305 OF $2,300 OF $2,500
Team Averages — 0.327 0.175 29.5% 0.354 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
Article Image Chris Archer Article Image Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -145 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.279 19 32.2% 29.0% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.282 22 33.1% 22.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.294 24 33.8% 28.5% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.278 20 32.0% 20.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,700 Salary: $10,300
FPPG: 35.1 FPPG: 19.2
Pitcher Rating: 91.3 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 108.6 2.48 3.13 34.1% 4.8% 13.4% 53.3% 33.3% 38.7%
2016 29 103.4 3.45 4.06 28.4% 8.2% 12.1% 47.3% 33.7% 33.9%
2015 34 101.4 3.08 3.23 29.0% 7.6% 12.8% 46.1% 33.9% 32.2%

Home:—ERA: 2.79 — K%: 31.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.260
Away:—ERA: 4.47 — K%: 26.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.314

Archer has had a great second half of the year and is always a high-upside tournament play, as he comes into this game with a 28.4% strikeout rate. He holds a sold 3.45 SIERA on the year and now gets an average matchup against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. If this game would be at home he would be a great, safe, play, but the park does take a little excitement away. With that said, he looks to be the best play on the early slate.

Masahiro Tanaka
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $10,800
FPPG: 33.7 FPPG: 18.2
Pitcher Rating: 89.1 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 92.2 3.43 2.18 24.0% 3.2% 10.0% 42.7% 36.0% 28.6%
2016 28 94.3 3.76 3.11 20.8% 4.3% 10.8% 47.3% 30.6% 33.7%
2015 24 95.4 3.36 3.51 22.8% 4.4% 11.4% 47.0% 33.8% 31.1%

Home:—ERA: 3.89 — K%: 22.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.296
Away:—ERA: 2.63 — K%: 21.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.262

Tanaka has been solid this year as he comes in with a 3.76 SIERA and 20.8% strikeout rate. He gets a decent matchup today against a Rays squad that is ranked 15th in wOBA against righties and strikeout at a 23.8% clip. I would rather pay up just a bit for Archer, but Tanaka is a close second on the afternoon.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are underdogs today in this matchup and have the second-lowest projections in the league at 3.49 runs. Tanaka has held batters from both side of the plate to a wOBA under .277 on the year making the Rays a tough play in any format.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.335 0.139 31.5% 0.403 2B $3,200 2B $3,900
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.324 0.176 27.8% 0.353 OF $3,900 OF $4,000
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.332 0.201 33.8% 0.247 3B $3,700 3B $3,200
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.349 0.228 34.7% 0.215 SS $3,200 1B/SS $3,500
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.322 0.192 35.1% 0.523 1B $2,600 1B $3,600
6 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.309 0.165 32.8% 0.145 OF $3,000 OF $2,900
7 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.314 0.210 36.0% 0.345 2B $2,900 1B/OF $3,300
8 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.343 0.259 34.0% 0.298 OF $2,900 OF $3,000
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.252 0.111 36.1% 0.418 C $2,700 C $2,500
Team Averages — 0.320 0.187 33.5% 0.327 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

This game is not exactly one to look for offenses at as we have the second- and third-ranked pitchers of the entire day on the mound against each other. The Yankees have a bottom-third projection today and should be avoided unless you want to go completely contrarian on the short slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.323 0.131 27.5% 0.280 OF $3,200 OF $3,300
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.314 0.111 24.7% 0.396 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.506 0.398 42.3% 0.375 C $3,600 C $4,100
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.311 0.149 24.1% 0.277 SS $3,100 SS $3,100
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.298 0.141 26.8% 0.336 2B $2,500 2B $2,900
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.330 0.200 33.7% 0.313 C $3,000 C $3,600
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.307 0.126 30.0% 0.359 3B $2,500 3B $3,300
8 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.341 0.244 23.3% 0.391 1B $2,500 1B $2,300
9 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.287 0.183 46.9% 0.177 OF $2,300 OF $3,400
Team Averages — 0.335 0.187 31.0% 0.323 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez

Stackability – RED

Boston at Toronto – 2:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
Article Image Eduardo Rodriguez Article Image J.A. Happ
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -135 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.342 8 29.5% 20.6% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.293 5 34.8% 23.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.302 19 29.6% 18.3% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.303 31 31.0% 20.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,300
FPPG: 22.4 FPPG: 11.4
Pitcher Rating: 44.0 Pitcher Rank: 27
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 90.8 4.63 2.22 20.7% 9.8% 11.3% 40.3% 45.2% 19.1%
2016 15 92.4 4.75 4.83 19.0% 8.6% 9.7% 33.7% 43.0% 26.7%
2015 21 95.7 4.16 3.85 18.8% 7.1% 7.8% 43.0% 33.4% 31.4%

Home:—ERA: 4.51 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.320
Away:—ERA: 3.93 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.301

Rodriguez has been pretty good lately and has put up a 2.22 ERA in the last 30 days. Yet, looking closer he hasn’t improved much from his early season struggles, as his SIERA during that span still sits at 4.63. The big problem today is the matchup and the park, as he has to take on the Blue Jays, who rank in the top 10 in many of the offensive categories listed below. The matchup alone makes him a very difficult and risky play.

J.A. Happ
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $9,000
FPPG: 35.0 FPPG: 18.0
Pitcher Rating: 68.3 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 92.6 3.89 4.61 23.3% 6.9% 11.5% 43.8% 36.3% 34.6%
2016 27 94.4 4.15 3.34 21.6% 7.3% 10.1% 42.1% 35.6% 32.5%
2015 31 91.6 3.82 3.61 21.1% 6.3% 8.1% 41.6% 34.1% 31.2%

Home:—ERA: 2.81 — K%: 22.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.292
Away:—ERA: 4.09 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308

Happ has had a decent season, as he comes in with a 4.15 SIERA (3.34 ERA) and 21.6% strikeout rate. He has struggled a bit recently allowing 14 runs in his last four, and today’s opponent won’t allow for many mistakes. The Red Sox are ranked first in wOBA against lefties and eighth in ISO. Happ has impressed against tough opponents this year, but it is still too risky to trust.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Happ has been solid for the majority of the season and has actually held batters to wOBAs of under .299 from both sides of the plate. The Red Sox have a surprisingly low team total today at 4.29, but I still think the offense puts up a number of runs today.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.361 0.144 30.9% 0.499 2B $3,000 2B $4,200
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.386 0.132 31.6% 0.317 SS $3,600 SS $4,300
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.328 0.184 41.3% 0.331 1B $4,300 1B $4,400
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.358 0.218 34.0% 0.366 OF $3,900 OF $4,600
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.374 0.261 34.4% 0.434 1B $3,400 1B $5,000
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.338 0.242 28.8% 0.448 3B $3,100 1B/3B $3,400
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.342 0.174 22.2% 0.290 C $2,700 C $3,000
8 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.333 0.155 30.5% 0.340 OF $3,400 OF $3,500
9 Brock Holt LEFT 0.316 0.077 18.8% 0.367 OF $2,800 OF $2,900
Team Averages — 0.348 0.176 30.3% 0.377 — — — —

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia

Secondary Plays – David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

While Rodriguez’s numbers are not terrible, they are not good either. He has allowed a .329 wOBA to lefties and .316 to righties. The Blue Jays have the seventh-highest projected run total going today at 4.71 runs. The big-time righties are in play today and could easily put up a crooked number at home.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.326 0.157 28.0% 0.274 2B $3,200 2B $3,500
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.427 0.302 40.9% 0.478 3B $4,100 3B $5,100
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.371 0.250 37.8% 0.325 1B $4,100 1B $5,000
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.348 0.224 36.7% 0.341 OF $3,800 OF $3,900
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.369 0.183 39.9% 0.295 SS $3,000 SS $3,400
6 Dioner Navarro SWITCH 0.313 0.198 25.5% 0.201 C $2,200 C $2,900
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.413 0.305 32.9% 0.364 OF $3,000 OF $4,000
8 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.359 0.226 31.4% 0.326 OF $3,300 OF $3,900
9 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.307 0.107 28.8% 0.358 OF $2,800 OF $3,300
Team Averages — 0.359 0.217 33.5% 0.329 — — — —

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis (elite if in leadoff), Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Seattle Oakland
Article Image Felix Hernandez Article Image Kendall Graveman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA -110 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.308 18 26.6% 18.8% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.327 14 31.3% 14.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.298 21 25.9% 24.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.315 22 26.6% 14.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $8,500
FPPG: 33.2 FPPG: 16.6
Pitcher Rating: 71.1 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 104.2 4.61 4.19 21.7% 11.8% 11.2% 51.0% 33.7% 26.7%
2016 20 101.2 4.54 3.75 19.9% 10.4% 9.5% 52.4% 29.5% 27.6%
2015 31 98.1 3.38 3.53 23.1% 7.0% 10.7% 56.2% 26.9% 25.4%

Home:—ERA: 3.28 — K%: 22.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.279
Away:—ERA: 4.06 — K%: 21.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.334

Felix is probably happy to see a different opponent today, as he allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts against a tough Rangers offense. The matchup is much different today against the A’s, who are ranked 28th in wOBA and 24th in ISO against right-handed pitching. The King’s best days might be behind him, but he is still an option this afternoon if you want to go away from Archer/Tanaka in the early slate.

Kendall Graveman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,900
FPPG: 25.4 FPPG: 12.5
Pitcher Rating: 44.3 Pitcher Rank: 26
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 97.6 4.67 2.06 12.8% 4.5% 5.5% 47.7% 29.4% 27.5%
2016 27 91.6 4.61 3.81 13.9% 6.1% 7.4% 51.8% 28.2% 29.4%
2015 21 90.4 4.43 4.05 15.3% 7.6% 7.6% 50.0% 28.6% 28.3%

Home:—ERA: 3.29 — K%: 14.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.300
Away:—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 14.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.341

Gravemen is the weakest of all the pitching options on the early slate. He has a 4.61 SIERA and extremely low 13.9% strikeout rate. He is an easy avoid against a Mariners squad that is ranked eighth in team wOBA against righties and 10th in ISO. They have enough pop in their lineup to avoid Gravemen today.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Gravemen has struggled more against the left side of the plate where he has allowed a .329 wOBA. This bodes well for the Mariners, who have a ton of solid options from the left side of the plate and a good amount of cheap options as well.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.346 0.189 35.1% 0.497 OF $3,400 OF $3,500
2 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.315 0.082 21.4% 0.259 SS $2,600 SS $3,000
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.372 0.209 37.0% 0.425 2B $3,700 2B $4,900
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.366 0.235 31.9% 0.304 OF $4,000 OF $4,100
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.359 0.201 36.8% 0.458 3B $3,600 3B $4,500
6 Adam Lind LEFT 0.345 0.216 39.8% 0.411 1B $2,700 1B $3,400
7 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.280 0.125 27.2% 0.203 OF $3,100 OF $3,200
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.267 0.190 28.6% 0.160 C $2,700 C $2,700
9 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.321 0.107 19.2% 0.115 OF $2,800 OF $3,500
Team Averages — 0.330 0.173 30.8% 0.315 — — — —

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano, Seth Smith, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Adam Lind, Nelson Cruz, Ketal Marte

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

The A’s have a sub 4.00 run total today and have the seventh-lowest projection of all 30 teams. They get a matchup against Felix, who has allowed a .314 wOBA to lefties and .304 to righties on the year. They are an offense to look for value in, but not much else.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.237 0.000 18.2% 0.233 3B $2,400 2B $2,500
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.291 0.151 29.2% 0.267 SS $3,200 SS $2,700
3 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.345 0.203 33.8% 0.314 3B $3,100 3B/OF $3,100
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.351 0.268 37.5% 0.280 OF $3,500 OF $3,500
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.318 0.115 32.9% 0.294 1B $2,400 1B $2,700
6 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.335 0.182 28.4% 0.250 C $2,800 C $2,900
7 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.337 0.173 30.0% 0.342 3B $2,800 3B $2,700
8 Jake Smolinski RIGHT 0.243 0.100 28.3% 0.224 OF $2,700 OF $2,800
9 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.254 0.077 42.1% 0.338 C $2,400 C $2,500
Team Averages — 0.301 0.141 31.2% 0.282 — — — —

Elite Plays – Stephen Vogt

Secondary Plays – Danny Valencia

Stackability – RED

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
Article Image Robert Stephenson Article Image Drew Hutchison
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -150 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.293 3 30.0% 19.5% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.322 12 28.6% 18.5%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.377 1 50.0% 16.7% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.398 14 34.8% 20.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robert Stephenson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,700
FPPG: 32.3 FPPG: 16.1
Pitcher Rating: 53.4 Pitcher Rank: 16
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 100.0 1.91 3.38 42.9% 4.8% 12.0% 18.2% 45.5% 54.6%
2016 3 97.3 4.68 3.12 18.3% 7.0% 9.3% 30.8% 42.3% 38.5%

Home:—ERA: 3.12 — K%: 18.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328
Away:—ERA: — K%: — wOBA Allowed:

While Stephenson did not pitch well in the minors this year (4.41 ERA), he has pitched decent in his three starts resulting in a 3.12 ERA. Looking closer, his SIERA sits more than a run and a half higher than his ERA, and his strikeout rate of 18.3% doesn’t allow for many mistakes. He is a big underdog in a game with a total of nine and should be avoided.

Drew Hutchison
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,500
FPPG: 21.7 FPPG: 10.6
Pitcher Rating: 62.3 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 2 103.0 4.07 4.97 22.6% 7.6% 11.2% 36.1% 38.9% 38.9%
2015 28 89.7 4.09 5.57 19.4% 6.6% 9.7% 39.6% 36.4% 31.0%

Home:—ERA: 3.16 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297
Away:—ERA: 9.83 — K%: 17.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.452

Hutchison gets a shot at the start today and is a guy that has shown decent strikeout potential before, but cannot seem to put it together the last couple years. He will now get a shot in the National League against the Reds who are a bottom third of the league offense. With that said, he is way too difficult to trust on a big slate tonight that has much better options.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have a middle-of-the-road projection tonight of 4.21 runs. They have a decent matchup tonight against Hutch, but the offense on the other side is the one you would much rather have exposure to.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.313 0.056 21.0% 0.488 SS $2,800 OF/SS $3,800
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.313 0.168 29.0% 0.280 SS $3,500 SS $3,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.419 0.236 41.9% 0.403 1B $3,800 1B $4,700
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.343 0.281 37.2% 0.302 OF $3,000 OF $3,800
5 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.314 0.113 26.3% 0.301 2B $2,900 2B $3,100
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.326 0.189 36.2% 0.462 OF $2,900 OF $3,000
7 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.309 0.155 32.7% 0.302 3B $2,700 3B $3,100
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.316 0.121 27.6% 0.246 C $2,400 C $2,800
9 Robert Stephenson RIGHT 0.000 P $6,400 P $6,700
Team Averages — 0.332 0.165 31.5% 0.309 — — — —

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are solid favorites today in a game with a total of nine runs. They are a great offense to target against Stephenson as they have the fifth-highest projected run total of the day. They didn’t come through yesterday, which hopefully keeps their ownership down a bit.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.295 0.097 25.7% 0.319 2B $3,400 2B $3,600
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.399 0.196 37.2% 0.308 1B $2,600 1B $3,000
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.352 0.182 38.2% 0.337 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.331 0.171 33.4% 0.236 OF $4,000 OF $4,800
5 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.367 0.216 37.6% 0.866 3B $3,500 3B $4,800
6 David Freese RIGHT 0.323 0.137 32.8% 0.242 3B $2,700 1B/3B $2,900
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.318 0.075 26.8% 0.274 C $3,000 C $3,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.275 0.088 24.5% 0.287 SS $2,600 SS $2,900
9 Drew Hutchison RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% P $7,300 P $6,500
Team Averages — 0.296 0.129 28.5% 0.359 — — — —

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Ryan138
Ryan138

Ryan (Ryan138) is from Chicago and has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. He has been playing daily fantasy sports for over 2 years since he was introduced to Daily Joust in late 2010. In the last year, Ryan has risen into the Top 100 of the RotoGrinders leaderboards by playing at DraftDay, DraftKings and FanDuel in all the major sports.