MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 9th

by Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) Last Updated 2017-04-11 03:02:25

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Today’s Grind Down was written by Josh Cole and Allan Lem in collaboration.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto					Tampa Bay
			Marco Estrada					Jake Odorizzi
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-110					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.266	27.7%	9.2%	22.6%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.264	32.7%	6.9%	26.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.295	36.2%	8.7%	22.7%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.343	34.0%	7.1%	17.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$16,500
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016-17	30	4.35	3.46	22.6%	9.0%	33.9%	48.5%	31.8%

Marco Estrada did his usual thing in the first start of the season, getting nearly 60 percent fly balls, allowing two runs, and notching only four strikeouts. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which could work in spacious Tropicana Field, and he could see a slight boost in strikeouts against the whiff-happy Rays (24.2% K rate against RHP last year, third-highest in MLB). However, does anyone really want to roster Marco Estrada on a day Jake Arrieta, Stephen Strasburg, and Lance McCullers all in positive matchups? Plus, he’s awkwardly priced between more appealing options like Julio Teheran and Matt Shoemaker, making Estrada a stay away.

Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016-17	34	4.23	3.76	21.3%	7.0%	36.0%	44.9%	33.5%

Jake Odorizzi has always been a pitcher who fares well in his home park. In his home park against Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and the rest of the Blue Jays’ potent lineup? Maybe not so much. A quick peek through his 2016 game logs shows that he actually excelled against Toronto last year, facing them five times and limiting them to two or fewer earned runs in each outing. And while Odorizzi offers a touch more strikeout potential than Estrada, from a DFS perspectiv, he’s sort of the mirror image of Estrada: high fly balls, low strikeouts, which equals a potential to get shelled with little potential for a GPP-winning performance. I’m tepid, at best, on Odorizzi today.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

On Sunday, the Blue Jays are in relatively unfamiliar territory, as they rank 17th in implied run total on the day (4.06). Blame cavernous Tropicana Field. The Blue Jays are mostly devoid of dangerous lefty bats (save the switch-hitting Kendrys Morales), but luckily for them, they’re facing Jake Odorizzi, who has shown some reverse splits tendencies throughout his career. Josh Donaldson is in play every day, and he his price tag won’t kill you. Jose Bautista strikes out more often against righties, but he’s also a better overall hitter against same-handed pitchers over the last few years. Devon Travis continues to be a nice value hitting out of the leadoff spot, and Russell Martin is fairly priced on a day when the low end at catcher looks pretty thin.

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Devon Travis

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Russell Martin

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

JMToWin frequently mentions that stacking against fly ball pitchers can be disappointing, because you’ll often end up with a bunch of empty fly balls. In that regard, no pitcher is better at tilting DFS players than Marco Estrada. He held hitters from both sides of the plate to wOBA marks below .300 last season, and for that reason, this is mostly a stay away spot. Kevin Kiermaier has been hitting out of the two hole, which makes him mildly interesting. And while Corey Dickerson is slightly in play hitting out of the leadoff spot, he’s historically been a far better hitter against ground ball pitchers (.255 career average against FB pitchers, .338 average against GB pitchers).

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – RED

Boston at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Boston					Detroit
			Rick Porcello					Daniel Norris
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-119					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.260	31.9%	3.6%	21.2%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.284	25.0%	10.1%	34.2%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.288	28.4%	3.6%	21.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.341	35.2%	6.3%	19.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$20,100
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016-17	34	3.77	3.18	21.2%	3.6%	43.3%	38.2%	30.2%

The most underwhelming Cy Young winner in recent memory squares off against the Detroit Tigers in Comerica Park. At time of writing, Porcello is a -133 favorite in game with a low projected run total. But as a pitcher with little strikeout upside who is priced like a Cy Young winner (i.e. high – he’s the fourth-most-expensive arm at both FD and DK), Porcello should be off your radar today.

Daniel Norris
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016-17	13	3.94	3.38	23.5%	7.3%	38.3%	38.8%	33.0%

Daniel Norris has the bad fortune to make his 2017 debut against the Boston Red Sox, a contact-heavy team (19.4 K% against LHP last year, fifth-best in MLB) with a potent lineup even in the post-Papi era. Norris has promise, but he’s shown little to distinguish himself as a real DFS option at this point in his career. He’s not an appealing option today, even though he’s priced with the Clayton Richards of the world at FanDuel.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

The Red Sox have a good-not-great implied total of 4.12 runs today, but it’s worth noting that that total is dropping as I write. As such, there are some good-not-great plays to consider here. Dustin Pedroia is batting leadoff, and at $3,000 at FanDuel, he’s a borderline elite play. Mookie Betts appears to have recovered from his flu and passed it on to Andrew Benintendi, who vomited during the sixth inning of yesterday’s game. We know all about Betts’s upside, and assuming he’s fully healthy, you’re rarely wrong in rostering one of the top players in baseball when he has the platoon advantage against an average pitcher. Still, it may be tricky to fit him in given some of the value available in the outfield. That value starts and ends with Chris Young, who finds himself batting cleanup. If you aren’t aware of Chris Young’s platoon splits, I’d urge you to go check them out (or go read my “10 Notes” article, in which I kind-of-but-not-really imply that Young is one of the best hitters in the game against lefty pitching. At just $2,400 at FanDuel and $2,700 at DraftKings, Young is one of the best values of the day.

Elite Plays – Chris Young, Dustin Pedroia

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Rick Porcello is a much better version of Odorizzi and Estrada in that he’s better against opposite-handed hitters, and he’s going to limit the damage enough to render the Tigers’ offensive options much less appealing than they should be. Detroit has the ninth-lowest implied total on the slate, and while there’s probably not a lot of upside for stacking (particularly in this ballpark), there are a few one-offs that are in play. Miguel Cabrera “see ball, hit ball” approach puts him in play against any pitcher, though you’re going to have to pay for him. Nick Castellanos is slotted second in the batting order, and last year, he was far better against righties (.378 wOBA, compared to .275 versus lefties), so the splits line up for him. Victor Martinez is priced low at FanDuel ($2,800), and best of all, he’s catcher-eligible there. He rarely strikes out, which makes him a cash game staple. Ian Kinsler feels too cheap at $3,300 at FD and $3,900 at DK, and as a leadoff hitter, there are worse players as “last man in” options.

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez (FD)

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET

Washington					Philadelphia
			Stephen Strasburg					Jeremy Hellickson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-158					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.259	26.0%	8.2%	30.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.321	25.6%	8.8%	17.2%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.291	28.9%	5.9%	28.7%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.290	26.2%	3.1%	21.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$10,600	Salary:		$20,400
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016-17	25	3.20	3.55	29.8%	7.0%	40.7%	38.6%	27.5%

Strasburg makes for a fantastic play today against a Phillies team with a 3.42 implied total, the third-lowest on the slate. He’s reached double figures in strikeouts the last three times he’s faced the Phillies, and while it’s risky to place too much stock in historical team data…this is the Phillies, the team whose wRC+ of 82 against righties last year was worst in MLB. Strasburg’s reputation isn’t where it could be based on the slew of injuries he’s been plagued with throughout his career, but that’s the beauty of daily fantasy – as long as he doesn’t break today, we’re in good shape! Strasburg is right up there with Noah Syndergaard among today’s pitchers in terms of strikeout upside. He’s firmly in play in all formats.

Jeremy Hellickson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,100
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016-17	33	4.18	3.66	19.5%	5.8%	40.7%	34.4%	25.9%

Jeremy Hellickson feels like the classic “you can play him on a three-game slate as long as there aren’t any other good pitchers” type of pitcher. As today’s slate features more than three games, and as many of them are quality pitchers, there’s little reason to scroll down this far when selecting your pitcher today. Here’s all you need to know about rostering Hellickson: in his last three starts, he’s struck out exactly one batter in three of them. Avoid.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Bryce Harper, Bryce Harper, Bryce Harper. He’s hit 12 home runs at Citizens Bank Park (his most of any venue outside of his home park), and he’s one of the best hitters on the planet against right-handed pitching. He’s the reason it doesn’t make much sense to roster Mookie Betts today, as he costs the same as Betts at DraftKings and is actually $100 less than Betts at FanDuel. Apart from Harper, Daniel Murphy is right in the sweet spot for pricing ($3,600 at FanDuel, $4,500 at DraftKings); his contact skills make him an elite cash game play. Adam Eaton has acclimated himself well to his new team, and while he might not have elite upside, he’s a high-contact guy, as well, and he could lead off given Trea Turner injured his hamstring on Saturday. Stacking up Nationals lefties with Anthony Rendon seems like an interesting tournament stack.

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

This is the first time I’ve written the Grind Down. I’m not going to spend it recommending any Phillies against Stephen Strasburg, even if they scored 1,000 runs against the Nationals last night.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 1:35 PM ET

NY Yankees					Baltimore
			CC Sabathia					Wade Miley
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-120					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.284	19.6%	9.4%	23.8%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.292	35.9%	8.3%	19.3%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.315	25.4%	8.3%	18.5%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.360	32.7%	6.5%	19.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016-17	31	4.36	3.80	19.5%	8.5%	50.5%	32.7%	24.4%

After getting shelled by batters (and righties in particular) for the past few years, C.C. Sabathia had a renaissance in 2016, posting a 3.91 ERA, his lowest since 2012. After allowing a .401 wOBA to righties in 2014 and a .370 in 2015, he somehow found a way to keep them in check last year, allowing just a .316 wOBA, well below league average. Sure, there was some luck involved (the .273 BABIP in the split likely won’t continue), but he boosted his ground ball rate to over 50 percent against righties for the first time ever. Does any of that mean you should consider using Sabathia today against the Orioles? Well, no – he’s an underdog against Wade Miley, for crying out loud. Move along.

Wade Miley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,100
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016-17	30	4.21	5.37	19.3%	6.9%	47.3%	30.2%	33.3%

Speaking of Miley, here’s what you need to know about him: last year, he struck out 19.3 percent of batters, and that represented an increase in his career numbers. Not convinced? How about this: he had a 5.03 ERA in Camden Yards last year, which was better than his road ERA of 5.67. Okay, I’ve got one more: he had a .360 wOBA against righties last year (10th-worst in MLB among qualified starters), and the Yankees lineup today features eight right-handed hitters. If you’re still not convinced, please send me all of your head-to-head games, but give me just a minute while I empty my bank account into my FD and DK accounts.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

There’s a lot to like about the Yankees today, especially since the lineup they rolled out is so righty-heavy. Aaron Hicks is batting second and is an elite value option as a switch hitter who prefers batting from the right side of the plate. Matt Holliday and Chris Carter are boom-or-bust options, but in hitter-friendly Camden Yards, either one could go yard and it would surprise no one. It’s tough to justify Starlin Castro at DraftKings when he’s priced in the same range as Ian Kinsler, Brian Dozier, Addison Russell, and Robinson Cano (all of whom are in at least above average spots), but at $2,300 at FanDuel, he’s a solid value hitting out of the five spot in the lineup. Aaron Judge has Stanton-like power, but he hasn’t gotten hold of one this year. Maybe today is the day, but he’s too volatile to be anything beyond a tournament dart.

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Chris Carter, Starlin Castro (FD)

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

The Orioles have an implied total of 4.37 runs, which is one of the higher totals of the day. As always, this is a high-ceiling, low-floor bunch of hitters who can be magic in tournaments, but who can also be maddening for cash games. Adam Jones has 70 career at-bats against C.C. Sabathia, and he’s thrived in the matchup, posting a .300/.329/.600 line, but for all we know, some of those at-bats could have come so long ago as to be irrelevant. Manny Machado is almost always an elite play at third base, and you can always go home run hunting with Mark Trumbo. Noted lefty masher J.J. Hardy is making an appearance at the bottom of the order, and I suppose he’s in play as a deep home run prayer for GPPs.

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, J.J. Hardy

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Atlanta					Pittsburgh
			Julio Teheran					Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-146					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.322	32.7%	8.7%	16.0%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.377	37.2%	7.2%	22.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.240	32.6%	2.9%	27.5%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.286	26.8%	6.8%	15.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016-17	31	3.93	3.11	22.1%	5.6%	38.7%	42.2%	32.7%

Coming off a solid outing against the Mets in which he went six strong innings, holding the Mets scoreless and striking out six, Julio Teheran is an underdog on the road against the Pirates. The narrative about Teheran has been that he excels at home and struggles on the road, but last year, he did his best to debunk that theory, posting a 2.69 ERA when outside of Atlanta. Last year, the Pirates were far better against left-handed pitching, but while the matchup isn’t terrible (and it’s aided by the pitcher-friendly confines of PNC Park), Teheran just doesn’t do anything for me in this matchup. He could be good, he could be average, he could be bad, but I truly doubt that he’ll be great or terrible in this matchup. He should be low-owned, for what that’s worth, but with so many affordable pitchers in excellent spots, Teheran doesn’t hold much appeal.

Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$15,600
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	29.0%	30.1%

If you haven’t read my “10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes” for today, I’d urge you to take a look at note 10. SPOILER ALERT! The pitcher I discuss in that note is Gerrit Cole, whose numbers last year bore a striking resemblance to those of Wade Miley. Cole is better at limiting home runs, but apart from that, these two pitchers weren’t as far off as you would think. And while obviously Cole is the more talented pitcher, he just continues to tantalize DFS players with his weird combination of high velocity and low strikeouts. Look, Atlanta has the fourth-lowest run total on the slate, and there’s little chance that Cole gets blown up, especially at home. He probably won’t allow any home runs. He probably won’t allow more than a few earned runs. And as the 14th-most-expensive pitcher at DK and the 11th-most-expensive pitcher at FD, he’s even priced to buy. He’s definitely more of a cash game option, though.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

After spending a paragraph disparaging Gerrit Cole, I’m now going to tell you why you shouldn’t go crazy rostering players against Gerrit Cole. Outside of Freddie Freeman, that is, who is one of the more underrated players in baseball (and in DFS). At just $3,300 at FanDuel and $4,300 at DraftKings, he’s a fine tournament play who will likely be ignored but who could easily string together a few hits. Apart from that, there’s not much to like, as Atlanta is throwing out a righty-heavy lineup, and Cole boasts a career .289 wOBA against righties.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While Teheran has been an on again, off again ace throughout his career, his numbers against lefties have been surprisingly pedestrian. Last year, for example, he struck out just 15.5 percent of left-handed batters, which is in the same neighborhood as guys like Bartolo Colon. This puts Pittsburgh lefties Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco in play. Starling Marte also deserves consideration given Tyler Flowers inability to throw anybody out; he’s in play for his steals upside alone.

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Starling Marte

Stackability – YELLOW

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