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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 6th - Page Three

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-05-06 15:23:49

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Houston at Arizona – 4:10 PM ET

Houston Arizona
houstonmlb Justin Verlander arizonamlb Matt Koch
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-170 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.279 0.297 33.1% 9.8% 30.5% 31.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.402 32.3% 12.8% 19.2% 51.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.263 0.311 33.0% 6.1% 24.7% 33.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.388 43.5% 6.7% 16.7% 52.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $13,200 Salary: $25,400
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.05 3.36 25.8% 8.5% 33.5% 34.5% 17.5%
2018 7 2.61 1.13 35.2% 4.6% 28.4% 25.2% 18.5%

If you’ve been playing Astros starters with regularity this season, you’re probably in the green. Houston throws an ace-caliber pitcher to the mound on a daily basis, and that’s obviously no different today with Justin Verlander taking the ball. The future Hall of Famer has been lights out this season, boasting a 2.61 SIERA with a 35.2% K-rate and minimal walks. He’s been lucky in terms of BABIP and LOB%, but this is Justin Verlander we’re talking about. The Diamondbacks gave Charlie Morton some issues last night, but JV is a guy that generally has better control. Chase Field is more of a neutral park this season with the humidor, so I think Verlander is very much in play even at this massive price tag.

Quick Breakdown: The Diamondbacks offense isn’t all that scary, so Verlander is the top pitching option on the afternoon slate. You have to pay a premium, though.

Matt Koch
matt-koch-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,300
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 0.00 27.00
2018 3 4.42 2.37 18.9% 9.5% 53.8% 36.5% 11.5%

The D-Backs will counter with RHP Matt Koch. Koch has 12 outings and 5 big league starts on his ledger, so we don’t have a lengthy history to go on with him. He’s fared well, but his SIERA is over 2 full runs higher than his ERA, which means some regression is likely on the horizon. The Astros are striking out more as a team this season than they did last year, but it’s still one of the top 2 or 3 lineups in all of baseball. The afternoon pitching slate is short, but there are far better options than Koch.

Quick Breakdown: Given the matchup with the Astros and Verlander on the other side, Koch is the easiest fade of the afternoon docket.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Stacking the Astros over the last couple of the seasons has generally been a profitable strategy. The lineup is essentially loaded top-to-bottom, though the primary targets are obviously the guys at the top. Matt Koch isn’t a pitcher we should be fearing, so you can roll out your George Springer-Alex Bregman-Jose Altuve-Carlos Correa quartet with confidence today. You can round out your stacks with some of the other hitters like Josh Reddick and Brian McCann, if you so choose.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.367 0.386 0.218 36.3% 8.5% 19.3% 49.6% OF $4,300 OF $5,100 RF $9,800
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.366 0.381 0.179 29.0% 8.4% 12.6% 46.4% 2B $4,200 2B $5,300 2B $10,200
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.384 0.375 0.236 35.7% 10.9% 22.1% 46.7% SS $4,300 SS $5,700 SS $11,000
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.331 0.311 0.193 33.6% 3.1% 10.5% 45.5% 1B $3,100 1B $3,700 1B $7,300
5 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.349 0.314 0.192 32.5% 9.4% 12.8% 33.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 RF $7,700
6 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.347 0.392 0.162 33.5% 9.7% 15.8% 40.0% 3B $3,400 3B $4,000 3B $7,500
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.336 0.262 0.213 33.8% 10.9% 20.3% 44.2% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
8 Brian McCann LEFT 0.333 0.322 0.185 31.7% 9.9% 16.0% 35.6% C $2,300 C $3,600 C $7,300
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.265 0.208 0.256 32.7% 5.3% 40.0% 41.7% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick

Secondary Plays – Brian McCann, Derek Fisher, Evan Gattis

Stackability – GREEN

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have been one of the best teams in baseball early in the season, but the hitters get a bad matchup against Justin Verlander. Verlander is a fly ball pitcher with reverse splits, so taking power bats like Paul Goldschmidt and/or A.J. Pollock in GPPs isn’t the worst idea. Otherwise, I’m steering clear.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.334 0.364 0.182 37.9% 8.3% 16.7% 52.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 RF $7,200
2 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.285 0.259 0.124 19.1% 7.5% 13.9% 42.9% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 CF $5,800
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.381 0.312 0.243 41.3% 13.7% 25.3% 46.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.354 0.458 0.217 38.0% 8.5% 19.0% 41.9% OF $4,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
5 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.337 0.319 0.170 41.0% 12.6% 21.1% 35.3% 3B $2,400 2B/3B $2,700 2B $5,700
6 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.283 0.325 0.174 32.0% 4.9% 23.2% 44.9% OF $2,100 2B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,400
7 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.278 0.351 0.169 30.6% 6.8% 22.5% 39.6% SS $2,700 SS $3,200 SS $6,600
8 Jeff Mathis RIGHT 0.252 0.271 0.081 24.1% 6.3% 30.5% 44.9% C $2,100 C $2,200 C $4,000
9 Matt Koch RIGHT 0.352 0.281 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $5,900 P $4,600 P $9,300

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt (GPP), A.J. Pollock (GPP)

Stackability – RED

LA Angels at Seattle – 4:10 PM ET

LA Angels Seattle
laangelsmlb Shohei Ohtani seattlemlb Felix Hernandez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.333 21.1% 15.2% 27.3% 42.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.408 31.3% 9.4% 19.1% 44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.286 29.6% 8.3% 35.4% 33.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.325 31.9% 6.7% 22.5% 44.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Shohei Ohtani
shohei-ohtani-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 4 3.46 4.43 32.1% 11.1% 37.0% 26.1% 26.1%

Shohei Ohtani will be making the fifth start of his big league career this afternoon. The rookie has had excellent success early on in his career with a strikeout rate over 32%. He’s made 2 starts against the A’s and one start apiece against the Red Sox and Astros, so it hasn’t exactly been an easy road for him. The walks are a concern at over 11% so far, but his 3.46 SIERA suggests that his 4.43 ERA has been rather unlucky. Outside of his blowup start against Boston, he’s been excellent. Today’s matchup with the Mariners isn’t ideal, but Ohtani has elite strikeout upside and he’s priced at something of a discount.

Quick Breakdown: Targeting the Mariners isn’t always optimal, but Ohtani is a very strong value today. He’s an elite GPP option and a secondary cash game play.

Felix Hernandez
felix-hernandez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,900
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.19 4.36 21.2% 7.1% 46.9% 30.7% 19.1%
2018 7 4.60 4.89 20.3% 9.8% 39.4% 33.6% 20.9%

Felix Hernandez was once in the Scherzer/Sale/Syndergaard tier, but those days are in the rearview mirror. His strikeouts have plummeted in recent years while his walks have been trending in the opposite direction. While he’s only really had one truly abysmal start so far this season, he’s allowed multiple runs in all but one outing and he’s yielded 7 homers across 7 games. Today’s matchup with the Angels presents very little K upside, even if Hernandez still had much to begin with.

Quick Breakdown: The Angels are one of the better stacks of the afternoon slate, which means I have no interest in rostering Felix.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels looked like one of the most improved teams in the league coming into the season, and the first month or so of results has proven that to be true. Hernandez has been getting pummeled by left-handed hitters over the last couple of season. Unfortunately, the Angels don’t have many of those. Still, it’s not like the righties have been getting shut down, which means you can fire them up, as well. If you’re a BvP truther, Mike Trout has absolutely obliterated Felix over the course of his career to the tune of a .367/.409/.734 slash with 7 home runs. The Angels will score plenty of runs today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.318 0.260 0.148 34.1% 9.0% 13.8% 35.4% 2B $3,100 2B $3,300 2B $6,500
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.442 0.531 0.352 41.4% 17.8% 18.6% 33.6% OF $5,500 OF $5,900 CF $10,600
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.348 0.311 0.227 39.8% 10.6% 29.6% 37.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 LF $8,200
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.336 0.375 0.172 35.5% 4.7% 13.9% 42.4% 1B $3,500 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.313 0.414 0.157 32.1% 4.9% 9.5% 48.5% SS $3,900 SS $3,900 SS $7,700
6 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.328 0.219 0.230 30.8% 10.9% 16.7% 39.5% 3B $2,700 2B/3B $3,200 SS $6,600
7 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.320 0.224 0.133 33.5% 9.9% 23.0% 44.9% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 RF $5,500
8 Jefry Marte RIGHT 0.301 0.323 0.092 33.9% 8.1% 25.3% 43.5% 1B $2,000 1B/3B $3,100 1B $5,900
9 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.326 0.165 0.162 35.1% 5.4% 27.7% 36.7% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,600

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart, Kole Calhoun, Luis Valbuena

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons

Stackability – GREEN

Seattle

The Mariners have plenty of power in their lineup, but picking on Ohtani doesn’t look like something I really want to do. Still, he’s shown that he can get blown up and allow some home runs, so I don’t mind some of the better Seattle hitters as one-offs. This doesn’t look like a very stackable team today unless you’re taking a long shot in a large field GPP.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.271 0.286 0.079 17.1% 4.2% 14.5% 54.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 2B $8,500
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.302 0.362 0.136 26.4% 4.8% 14.7% 55.3% SS $3,600 SS $4,200 SS $8,500
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.399 0.449 0.197 39.8% 9.1% 12.4% 47.4% 2B $3,800 2B $3,600 2B $7,500
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.393 0.422 0.282 40.3% 6.5% 21.9% 40.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,100 RF $8,200
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.368 0.348 0.206 38.0% 9.4% 16.2% 30.4% 3B $3,000 3B $3,500 3B $6,400
6 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.363 0.456 0.251 38.4% 9.0% 23.9% 39.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 LF $8,900
7 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.324 0.469 0.180 35.2% 3.4% 24.2% 43.1% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 3B $7,300
8 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.299 0.238 0.133 28.3% 7.5% 19.7% 43.2% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 RF $5,500
9 David Freitas RIGHT 0.310 0.422 0.091 28.6% 8.1% 32.4% 38.1% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano (GPP), Nelson Cruz (GPP), Kyle Seager (GPP), Dee Gordon (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at San Diego – 4:10 PM ET

LA Dodgers San Diego
ladodgersmlb Ross Stripling sandiegomlb Eric Lauer
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-165 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.236 0.244 23.9% 8.2% 22.9% 46.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.221 0.355 28.6% 0.0% 22.2% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.309 31.1% 5.5% 24.9% 47.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.474 0.418 45.0% 17.7% 23.5% 35.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Stripling
ross-stripling-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 3.37 3.75 24.3% 6.3% 49.3% 27.0% 20.4%
2018 1 3.86 2.33 22.9% 8.4% 39.3% 31.6% 24.6%

Rich Hill was originally slated to draw this start, but Dave Roberts announced Saturday night that it’ll be Ross Stripling instead. Stripling has spent most of the season coming out of the pen, though he did draw a start a couple of outings ago against Arizona. While he’s pitched well in relief this season, the D-Backs touched him up for 4 runs on 8 hits in 4 innings of work. He threw a season-high 66 pitches that day, so it’s safe to say he’s not fully stretched out. He’ll likely give them a few innings before giving way to the bullpen this afternoon against the Padres. There isn’t enough upside here despite the strong matchup.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup is great, but this is a hitter-friendly ballpark and Stripling won’t stay in the game long enough to warrant consideration.

Eric Lauer
eric-lauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 2 4.83 10.13 23.3% 14.0% 34.6% 40.7% 3.7%

The Pads will counter with rookie Eric Lauer, who will be making his third big league start. He hasn’t started all that well, as he’s conceded 10 runs on 13 hits through his first 8 innings in the big leagues. It’s fair to give him a pass on one of those, however, which was a start at Coors Field. Last time out in San Francisco, he gave up 3 runs on 7 hits across 5 innings. Lauer has shown solid strikeout promise so far, but he’s also gotten himself into trouble with a walk rate of 14%. The Dodgers’ offense hasn’t been electric to start the season, but I’d rather fire up some of their bats than take a shot on an unproven youngster like Lauer.

Quick Breakdown: Lauer is an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have been a frustrating offense to target this season, as we’ve seen them come up small in great spots numerous times already. Still, we have to favor process over results, and playing Dodger hitters looks like the better process play here today. Lauer hasn’t given us any reason to fear him as of yet, so L.A. hitters are looking good against him today in the hitter-friendly environs of Monterrey. The righties may be favorable, but a guy like Cody Bellinger is still a strong option in a lefty-lefty matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.327 0.407 0.183 28.9% 7.9% 25.1% 43.0% SS $3,500 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
2 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.263 0.373 0.086 31.8% 10.6% 22.7% 50.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
3 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.278 0.309 0.138 33.7% 11.3% 26.3% 57.3% C $3,200 C $3,700 C $7,700
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.351 0.372 0.272 40.0% 9.1% 24.2% 31.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
5 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.398 0.394 0.135 36.9% 11.1% 16.7% 45.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 LF $6,400
6 Chase Utley LEFT 0.299 0.256 0.172 18.2% 11.1% 22.2% 27.3% 2B $2,400 2B $2,900 2B $5,800
7 Alex Verdugo LEFT 0.285 0.354 0.167 27.3% 0.0% 8.3% 54.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 RF $6,600
8 Max Muncy LEFT 0.499 0.307 0.000 66.7% 0.0% 40.0% 33.3% OF $2,200 3B $3,000 IF/OF $5,700
9 Kenta Maeda RIGHT 0.198 0.134 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 76.9% P $8,600 P $9,500 P $18,800

Elite Plays – Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Enrique Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, Austin Barnes

Stackability – GREEN

San Diego

With Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe both on the shelf, there isn’t a ton to love about this San Diego lineup. The matchup with Stripling isn’t particularly daunting, but the Padres will have to deal with what is a largely solid Dodger bullpen once Stripling comes out. Even so, this is a good park for power and I don’t hate some of the Padres as one-offs here. I’ll likely get my cash game exposure from other places, however.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.295 0.260 0.124 25.8% 5.5% 20.1% 41.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 CF $6,800
2 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.377 0.462 0.196 32.5% 11.6% 18.0% 51.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 1B $7,500
3 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.295 0.309 0.189 26.0% 6.0% 28.9% 34.0% 3B $3,700 3B $4,400 3B $9,300
4 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.299 0.284 0.148 30.7% 7.4% 20.9% 51.8% OF $2,500 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,700
5 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.364 0.489 0.240 43.1% 8.3% 37.6% 42.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.291 0.223 0.126 28.8% 9.0% 20.0% 37.7% SS $2,500 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
7 Matt Szczur RIGHT 0.280 0.226 0.110 24.4% 11.0% 17.7% 39.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 LF $5,500
8 A.J. Ellis RIGHT 0.285 0.291 0.149 27.7% 8.5% 17.0% 50.0% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $4,900
9 Eric Lauer LEFT 0.000 0.161 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $5,600 P $5,300 P $10,000

Elite Plays – Franchy Cordero (GPP), Eric Hosmer

Secondary Plays – Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela, Christian Villanueva

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Cincinnati – 4:10 PM ET

Miami Cincinnati
miamimlb Dan Straily cincinnatimlb Brandon Finnegan
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-114 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.305 30.2% 9.7% 21.3% 33.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.425 0.347 31.6% 11.1% 18.5% 36.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.327 36.2% 6.5% 22.0% 33.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.366 0.373 31.9% 18.8% 19.7% 41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.43 4.26 22.1% 7.8% 34.2% 32.6% 19.1%
2018 1 9.10 9.00 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 53.3% 6.7%

Dan Straily has made just one start this season, and it didn’t go well. He allowed 4 runs on 6 hits with 4 walks in 4 innings in his 2018 debut against the Phillies. Straily is certainly a better pitcher than he showed last time out, but he’s not someone I generally go out of my way to roster. He’s super cheap today against a mediocre Reds lineup, but he’s also pitching in one of baseball’s premier power parks in Cincinnati. Unless Straily is feeling particularly vengeful against his former team, I’d like to see him flash some form before rostering him in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: He’s cheap with some upside, but I’ll pass on Straily making his second start of the year.

Brandon Finnegan
brandon-finnegan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.84 4.15 27.1% 22.0% 53.3% 23.3% 13.3%
2018 4 6.05 7.27 14.1% 14.1% 34.4% 36.1% 19.7%

Finnegan is a former first-round pick of the Royals that has yet to find much success as a starter at the big league level. He’s struggled with walks throughout his career, and this year has been no different. In fact, his walk rate and K-rate are the exact same so far: 14.1%. That’s a bad strikeout rate and a horrendous walk rate. Finnegan has shown strikeout potential in the past, though, so I’d expect that number to rise as the year progresses. Despite the fact that he gets just about the easiest matchup on the board today, Finnegan hasn’t shown enough to make us believe he’s worthy of DFS consideration.

Quick Breakdown: Even in a solid matchup, I’ll pass on a walk-happy pitcher like Finnegan.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Finnegan is a mediocre lefty with a wide platoon split pitching in a park known for home runs. Despite the fact that they’re the Marlins, that all bodes well for Marlins hitters today. Left-handed bats have been able to get to Finnegan in the past, but 36 of the 43 homers he’s allowed in his career have come to righties. J.T. Realmuto stands out as one of the top catcher plays on the board, as he’s Miami’s best right-handed hitter. Starlin Castro, Cameron Maybin, Miguel Rojas, Martin Prado and even Lewis Brinson are all in play today. You can even play Justin Bour from the left side. It sounds ludicrous, but the Marlins are squarely in play today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.346 0.412 0.207 35.4% 9.5% 16.8% 39.4% C $3,500 C $4,200 C $8,000
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.245 0.278 0.063 22.2% 2.9% 17.6% 51.9% 3B $2,400 2B/3B $3,200 3B $6,500
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.356 0.307 0.127 35.0% 10.6% 18.4% 52.0% 2B $2,700 2B $3,500 2B $6,400
4 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.402 0.298 0.132 37.8% 8.6% 27.6% 37.8% 3B $2,900 3B/OF $3,600 3B $7,400
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.301 0.353 0.183 23.8% 11.5% 27.5% 53.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
6 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.297 0.353 0.080 34.9% 7.4% 19.5% 51.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 CF $5,600
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.335 0.315 0.140 27.4% 10.4% 9.4% 33.7% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 2B $5,400
8 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.371 0.341 0.214 26.7% 10.6% 25.5% 62.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.084 0.693 0.071 12.5% 0.0% 50.0% 60.0% P $5,500 P $5,600 P $11,300

Elite Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Starlin Castro, Cameron Maybin, Martin Prado, Justin Bour, Brian Anderson

Secondary Plays – Miguel Rojas, Lewis Brinson,

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds get a decent matchup today against their old pal, Dan Straily. Straily isn’t a gas can by any means, but he projects as a right-hander with a fairly neutral platoon split, and he’s vulnerable to power. He served up 31 dongs last season, so keeping the ball inside the fence can be an issue for him sometimes. This game is featuring perhaps the two worst teams in the National League, but we could actually have a shootout in this one. I think you can play Reds from either side of the plate here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.288 0.305 0.081 22.8% 3.3% 13.2% 42.9% SS $3,600 SS $4,000 SS $7,300
2 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.300 0.358 0.208 32.3% 5.7% 27.3% 31.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.443 0.519 0.239 36.9% 19.0% 10.1% 36.5% 1B $4,200 1B $4,800 1B $9,000
4 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.356 0.346 0.264 39.2% 9.1% 23.0% 45.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 RF $8,300
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.368 0.490 0.201 33.0% 12.5% 22.0% 37.5% 3B $4,000 3B $4,700 3B $9,100
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.339 0.374 0.135 35.0% 11.0% 16.6% 42.5% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,900
7 Rosell Herrera SWITCH 0.155 0.155 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 20.0% 50.0% 2B $2,000 SS $2,900 SS $5,500
8 Brandon Finnegan LEFT 0.292 0.318 0.000 40.0% 0.0% 9.1% 80.0% P $5,500 P $6,200 P $12,000
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.260 0.271 0.085 15.2% 9.3% 21.2% 47.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 CF $7,300

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Devin Mesoraco, Jose Peraza

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 8:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs St. Louis
cubsmlb Jon Lester stlouismlb Michael Wacha
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-115 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.234 0.249 25.4% 3.4% 31.9% 54.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.333 31.4% 10.0% 20.4% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.337 29.5% 9.4% 20.3% 42.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.308 28.9% 6.9% 23.2% 46.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.07 4.33 23.6% 7.9% 46.2% 28.1% 21.4%
2018 6 4.65 2.73 19.0% 9.2% 40.6% 31.3% 19.2%

On DraftKings and FanDuel (aside from FD’s all-day slate), the Sunday night game is only available as a one-game showdown slate. Jon Lester looks like he’s in the latter stages of his career, but he’s still a guy we can look to in DFS from time to time if the matchup is right. That said, he hasn’t been very good this year. His SIERA is nearly 2 full runs higher than his ERA, and his strikeout rate is way down to about 19%. He can still shut down lefties, but he’s showing a wide split and he’s been known to give up some home runs to right-handed hitters. All 4 dingers he’s surrendered this season have been to RHBs, and he gave up a career-worst 26 homers last season. The Cardinals can throw a number of righties his way, though their lineup may be a bit weakened with Yadier Molina and Tommy Pham both leaving yesterday’s game with injuries.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is the (slightly) preferred target among the pitchers in this game, but that isn’t meant as some sort of ringing endorsement.

Michael Wacha
michael-wacha-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.14 4.13 22.5% 7.9% 48.0% 28.0% 20.2%
2018 6 4.80 3.62 18.6% 10.7% 40.6% 39.8% 16.3%

Michael Wacha certainly isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s another guy whose SIERA indicates that his ERA might be a bit lucky. He’s allowed a hard contact rate of nearly 40% in the season’s early going. While he’s typically a pitcher with a ground ball tendency, he’s also shown fairly dramatic reverse splits over the course of his career. Wacha has also walked nearly 11% of the hitters he’s faced this year, which is poor. In a tough matchup with a talented Cubs lineup, Wacha could be in for a rough night.

Quick Breakdown: The Cubs should be able to give Wacha plenty of problems tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Stacking against Michael Wacha at Busch Stadium isn’t the most sound strategy, but if you’re playing a one-game slate you essentially have no choice but to stack everybody. There are enough strong Cubs hitters in the lineup to where they make for a decent enough stack whenever they hit the field. As such, you can roll out the likes of Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez with confidence. It’s not a blow-up type of spot, but there are worse places to find hitters today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.347 0.341 0.153 32.5% 11.7% 14.4% 50.0% OF $2,500 N/A N/A
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.365 0.312 0.238 32.2% 13.1% 19.8% 39.1% 3B $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.400 0.302 0.216 34.4% 13.2% 12.7% 40.0% 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.323 0.355 0.201 33.6% 7.6% 23.8% 51.6% C $2,900 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.370 0.439 0.293 37.4% 11.6% 28.6% 41.3% OF $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.261 0.264 0.125 27.8% 3.5% 20.1% 51.1% OF $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.346 0.352 0.147 27.9% 10.5% 11.2% 45.6% OF $2,500 N/A N/A
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.302 0.329 0.230 30.7% 5.5% 28.3% 47.6% 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.236 0.121 0.071 33.3% 4.0% 36.0% 64.0% P $8,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Javier Baez, Addison Russell

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals may be short-handed, but they still get a solid matchup at home tonight against Jon Lester, who we’ve seen can be prone to a meltdown. Lester is still tough on lefties, which makes someone like Matt Carpenter little more than a footnote. If you’re playing Cardinals, you want the right-handed guys. Pham is an elite play if he’s good to go, but you can also look at the others hitting in favorable lineup spots.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.425 0.533 0.254 37.1% 17.6% 19.0% 53.4% OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.368 0.455 0.103 34.8% 17.0% 23.3% 35.6% 2B $3,300 N/A N/A
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.525 0.417 0.392 39.7% 15.9% 18.2% 31.0% 1B $3,300 N/A N/A
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.343 0.374 0.106 37.5% 10.6% 18.8% 53.3% OF $3,100 N/A N/A
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.460 0.415 0.271 48.3% 3.6% 10.0% 30.5% C $3,200 N/A N/A
6 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.341 0.337 0.140 38.2% 10.9% 19.0% 45.1% OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.385 0.409 0.278 32.6% 9.8% 13.0% 36.8% 3B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.269 0.391 0.293 35.5% 10.0% 33.6% 40.3% SS $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.089 0.052 0.000 9.1% 0.0% 31.3% 85.7% P $7,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Paul DeJong, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles