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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-21 03:46:59

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at NY Mets – 12:10 PM ET

St. Louis NY Mets
stlouismlb Lance Lynn nymetsmlb Seth Lugo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-104 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.337 30.9% 12.0% 17.5% 44.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.301 0.364 34.0% 10.7% 14.0% 42.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.284 29.0% 5.2% 25.1% 42.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.323 35.2% 5.1% 19.7% 45.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 8 of 18 Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 7 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 19 4.43 3.40 21.4% 8.5% 43.6% 30.0% 20.2%
L30 5 4.52 3.56 16.5% 5.0% 46.2% 26.6% 24.5%

Before we get into the games, there are a couple of items to cover. I have added pitching statistics from the last 30 days, which will help gauge current form and allow it to spot trends moving forward. I have also changed the hitting statistics to this season alone. I always like to wait until after the All-Star break before looking solely at 2017 statistics so that we have at least half a season of data to work with.

Lynn isn’t nearly as good as his 3.40 ERA suggests. His SIERA is quite a bit higher, which is always a red flag for DFS when it’s not accompanied by a high strikeout rate. On the season, Lynn has a 21% strikeout rate and that number has dipped to 16% in his last five starts. He’ll have to face a number of lefties in the Mets’ lineup today and as a whole, New York has the third lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn is an easy fade on the road against a talented Mets’ offense.

Seth Lugo
seth-lugo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 4.66 2.67 17.3% 8.1% 42.8% 38.4% 16.8%
2017 6 4.82 4.50 16.2% 7.5% 45.0% 29.0% 20.6%
L30 4 4.94 5.47 14.8% 7.8% 47.7% 31.5% 21.4%

Lugo hasn’t been on our collective radar often this season. He doesn’t do anything particularly well and his strikeout rate is sitting at only 15% on the year. With little to offer in terms of upside, he needs a near-perfect matchup to warrant consideration. Seeing as how the Cardinals are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, this obviously isn’t the ideal matchup Lugo needs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lugo in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals may not be playing in the best hitter’s park around, but they draw a favorable matchup against Seth Lugo and have a fairly high implied run total. In addition to a low strikeout rate, Lugo has allowed a .364 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .323 xwOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons combined. Matt Carpenter continues to have elite numbers against righties, posting a .403 xwOBA with a 45% hard contact rate in 2017.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.377 0.403 0.229 44.6% 16.6% 18.3% 23.7% 2B $4,000 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.370 0.357 0.182 37.7% 9.3% 25.0% 54.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 CF $9,000
3 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.347 0.359 0.241 34.8% 12.0% 21.4% 39.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.356 0.334 0.201 30.8% 9.6% 23.8% 41.9% 3B $3,400 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.288 0.307 0.126 34.6% 4.6% 15.2% 46.2% C $3,000 C $3,500 C $6,900
6 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.339 0.330 0.268 39.1% 0.8% 31.8% 31.0% SS $2,800 2B/SS $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.353 0.329 0.150 24.2% 8.1% 13.1% 49.1% 2B $2,400 2B $3,200 2B $6,300
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.368 0.258 0.000 9.7% 7.7% 12.8% 56.7% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
9 Lance Lynn RIGHT 0.134 0.153 0.080 22.2% 0.0% 33.3% 64.3% P $8,400 P $8,800 P $17,200

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

After seeing the Mets jump on Mike Leake early yesterday, I started to wonder if writing them off was a bad idea. It’s always a tricky balance to not be results-based and Leake isn’t exactly a pitcher that we’ve wanted to pick on over the years. I’m much higher on the Mets’ matchup today against Lance Lynn, whose struggles against lefties are more prevalent. In 2017, Lynn has allowed a .337 xwOBA with a 12% walk rate to left-handed hitters. Jay Bruce has some excellent BvP against Lynn, going 15-for-36 with six extra-base hits.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.407 0.389 0.277 42.0% 14.7% 22.7% 37.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.318 0.357 0.171 34.6% 11.2% 14.4% 45.5% 2B $3,100 2B/SS $4,100 SS $8,100
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.328 0.329 0.157 41.1% 7.2% 15.1% 38.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.392 0.377 0.299 44.3% 9.9% 21.6% 33.3% OF $2,400 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
5 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.338 0.301 0.151 29.8% 3.8% 10.7% 37.7% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,500
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.393 0.402 0.303 44.3% 15.1% 22.2% 26.0% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.285 0.284 0.159 27.1% 7.0% 12.2% 36.9% SS $2,800 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.253 0.285 0.164 34.5% 5.3% 16.7% 39.7% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Seth Lugo RIGHT 0.000 0.064 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% P $8,100 P $6,500 P $12,800

Elite Plays – Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lucas Duda

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Milwaukee Pittsburgh
milwaukeemlb Jimmy Nelson pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-128 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.326 37.0% 11.0% 21.9% 45.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.310 29.1% 7.0% 16.7% 53.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.296 28.4% 7.1% 19.8% 53.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.278 34.4% 4.1% 25.3% 51.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jimmy Nelson
jimmy-nelson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $11,700 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 4 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.92 4.62 17.4% 10.7% 49.4% 32.6% 21.3%
2017 19 3.41 3.27 26.7% 6.1% 50.3% 31.8% 21.3%
L30 5 2.74 3.23 34.4% 6.6% 52.8% 36.1% 20.8%

After a disappointing 2016 campaign, Nelson is having a breakout year in 2017. In 19 starts, he has a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a walk rate of 50%. His numbers have improved across the board, including his stats on the road. Despite the great start to the season, he isn’t getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers today. He comes into this game as a small underdog against the Pirates, who have the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Given the lack of options in the early slate, Nelson is viable in all formats. However, I slightly prefer Taillon dollar-for-dollar.

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 5 of 18 Salary Rank: 5 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 12 3.93 3.06 22.3% 7.7% 52.3% 29.3% 23.7%
L30 4 3.41 2.42 26.6% 6.4% 50.8% 30.7% 30.7%

Taillon has really been sharp in his last four starts, posting a SIERA of 3.41 with a strikeout rate of 27%. He has always had an above-average ground ball rate and he’s always been able to limit hard contact. That’s a good combination for any pitcher, especially one that gets to pitch in PNC Park. He draws a favorable matchup against a right-handed heavy Brewers’ offense that has the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon has a nice combination of a high floor and a high ceiling in this matchup. He is a viable play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are small underdogs today against Jameson Taillon and they have one of the lowest implied run totals of any team on the schedule, not just the ones in the early slate. Taillon is far from an exploitable matchup. In addition to the above-average strikeout rate and above-average ground ball rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters .310 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.283 0.276 0.129 37.1% 7.5% 29.8% 55.1% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.398 0.355 0.302 43.1% 16.7% 26.3% 40.0% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,200 1B $8,000
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.333 0.322 0.262 40.5% 9.0% 24.6% 48.3% OF $4,100 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.408 0.373 0.289 39.9% 9.6% 20.4% 45.7% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.377 0.330 0.206 34.4% 12.2% 28.8% 47.8% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.334 0.288 0.181 28.1% 6.6% 17.2% 38.1% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.306 0.289 0.199 33.6% 7.7% 38.2% 43.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.316 0.278 0.145 27.1% 4.6% 17.9% 50.7% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Jimmy Nelson RIGHT 0.080 0.077 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 60.9% 71.4% P $9,300 P $11,700 P $22,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Jimmy Nelson used to be a pitcher that I would pick on regularly in his road starts, but that hasn’t been the case this season. He has really improved all in all areas and now boasts an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. He still struggles with left-handed hitters every now and then, but outside of Josh Bell, the Pirates don’t really have any power lefties in their lineup. This is the game to target for pitching in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.346 0.352 0.152 31.4% 5.9% 23.5% 45.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.331 0.325 0.144 33.0% 4.6% 16.1% 35.7% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.348 0.362 0.178 34.6% 10.7% 17.9% 39.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.338 0.334 0.230 33.3% 10.9% 20.4% 52.4% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.314 0.341 0.115 30.3% 11.5% 19.4% 55.6% 3B $2,700 3B $2,700 3B $5,200
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.318 0.316 0.167 25.3% 7.4% 10.9% 40.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.342 0.340 0.142 34.9% 11.2% 18.1% 46.9% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.330 0.312 0.149 27.1% 10.1% 14.9% 46.6% SS $2,700 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.058 0.121 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 43.8% 85.7% P $8,600 P $9,600 P $18,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Arizona Cincinnati
arizonamlb Patrick Corbin cincinnatimlb Luis Castillo
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-120 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.301 34.6% 8.6% 29.6% 54.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.219 30.0% 9.2% 29.2% 57.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.367 0.349 36.7% 8.1% 16.8% 51.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.355 0.300 30.3% 13.8% 29.3% 54.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 12 of 18 Salary Rank: 12 of 18 Salary Rank: 12 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.38 5.15 18.7% 9.4% 53.8% 38.5% 15.2%
2017 19 4.02 4.66 21.1% 6.5% 50.3% 33.1% 17.4%
L30 5 3.21 3.18 27.4% 6.5% 52.4% 23.2% 24.4%

Corbin hasn’t been terrible this season, posting a 4.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. The issue here is the matchup and the ballpark. On the season, the Reds are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against southpaws. To make matters worse, he has to face them in the Great American Ballpark, which generally doesn’t treat fly-ball pitchers very kindly.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Corbin in all formats.

Luis Castillo
luis-castillo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 3.85 3.41 29.3% 11.4% 56.2% 30.1% 20.6%
L30 5 3.85 3.41 29.3% 11.4% 56.2% 30.1% 20.6%

Castillo made the move straight from Double-A to the big leagues and he has yet to be phased. In his first five major league starts, he has a 3.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He throws the ball extremely hard (averaging 98 MPH on his fastball), but it’s only a matter of time before hitters start to figure him out a bit. When it comes to inexperienced pitchers, I like to rely on Vegas. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo offers some GPP appeal against a right-handed heavy lineup, but there are safer options in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks haven’t hit the ball well on the road this season, but they get to face an inexperienced pitcher in one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball. They have a high implied run total and make a lot of sense as a stack. Luis Castillo has pitched well thus far, but he has an 11% walk rate and this is only his sixth career start above Double-A. I prefer to target the Diamondbacks’ offense over Castillo in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.369 0.316 0.163 36.7% 7.1% 15.0% 55.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.354 0.316 0.137 41.2% 8.1% 20.0% 45.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.409 0.387 0.281 36.3% 14.3% 21.6% 40.9% 3B $3,500 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.442 0.413 0.297 45.6% 14.5% 21.3% 43.5% 1B $4,400 1B $5,600 1B $10,800
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.346 0.387 0.244 46.3% 11.4% 25.9% 45.5% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 RF $9,300
6 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.343 0.294 0.193 33.5% 4.9% 21.3% 43.5% SS $3,100 OF/SS $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
7 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.357 0.322 0.186 32.4% 7.8% 18.5% 48.3% 2B $2,300 2B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
8 Chris Herrmann LEFT 0.297 0.333 0.210 41.6% 13.2% 25.0% 44.9% C $2,400 C/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
9 Taijuan Walker RIGHT 0.175 0.188 0.000 11.8% 4.2% 25.0% 70.6% P $7,800 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds are one of the top offenses to target in the early slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Patrick Corbin and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Over the last two seasons, Corbin has allowed a .347 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. A Reds stack is firmly in play in tournaments and all of the righties are viable in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.222 0.199 0.078 16.9% 0.0% 25.2% 45.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
2 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.384 0.353 0.200 38.0% 16.3% 24.4% 46.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.422 0.399 0.341 32.9% 15.9% 12.1% 48.7% 1B $3,800 1B $5,300 1B $10,200
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.407 0.372 0.329 33.9% 6.7% 20.0% 41.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.270 0.228 0.156 24.2% 4.3% 25.5% 51.5% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $4,300 2B $8,400
6 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.319 0.331 0.211 33.3% 11.4% 25.0% 37.0% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,600
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.361 0.352 0.247 37.3% 1.1% 18.9% 46.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
8 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.273 0.264 0.066 21.8% 3.2% 13.8% 58.4% SS $2,100 2B/SS $2,900 2B $5,700
9 Luis Castillo RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $7,600 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Devin Mesoraco

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Toronto Boston
torontomlb Francisco Liriano bostonmlb Doug Fister
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-120 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.296 31.0% 7.4% 24.0% 58.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.406 0.372 36.9% 9.5% 13.2% 37.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.352 0.335 34.7% 12.9% 21.5% 47.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.271 0.292 25.0% 7.3% 17.3% 51.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 17 of 18 Salary Rank: 17 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.38 4.69 23.0% 11.6% 52.0% 34.8% 19.4%
2017 15 5.08 6.04 19.9% 12.1% 44.3% 32.3% 14.8%
L30 5 5.64 7.30 13.5% 9.9% 42.2% 31.8% 21.2%

Liriano has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. He has a SIERA over 5.00, a strikeout rate under 20%, and a walk rate over 12%. His ground ball rate is down and he is allowing a lot of medium and hard contact. There is no reason for him to be on your radar in a matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway. On the season, Boston is ranked seventh in team wOBA and first in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Liriano in all formats.

Doug Fister
doug-fister-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 17 of 18 Salary Rank: 18 of 18 Salary Rank: 18 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.97 4.64 14.8% 8.0% 45.3% 31.5% 19.7%
2017 3 5.52 6.75 18.3% 13.4% 31.4% 31.5% 16.7%
L30 3 5.53 6.75 18.3% 13.4% 31.4% 31.5% 16.7%

Fister is a pitcher that we love to pick on in DFS. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Basically, there is nothing about his game that suggests he will pitch well today or in any other start moving forward. He can be avoided against the Blue Jays, who have plenty of firepower in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fister in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have let us down more often than not this season, but deserve consideration as one of the top offenses to target. They get to play in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they are facing a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. This is a great situation for a stack and we can target batters from both sides of the plate. Give a slight edge to those that can bat from the left side, as Doug Fister has allowed a .372 xwOBA to lefties in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.351 0.348 0.202 33.9% 13.7% 22.5% 32.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.348 0.347 0.160 30.6% 15.2% 21.2% 53.7% C $2,700 C $3,900 C $7,600
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.353 0.343 0.204 32.4% 14.0% 24.4% 42.9% 3B $3,500 3B $5,000 3B $9,600
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.365 0.394 0.281 39.0% 9.6% 22.6% 33.5% 1B $3,600 1B $5,100 1B $9,900
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.303 0.360 0.195 38.0% 6.5% 22.3% 47.7% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.323 0.298 0.149 32.9% 6.3% 14.4% 46.7% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.341 0.323 0.154 34.2% 6.2% 20.4% 45.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 1B $7,500
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.276 0.310 0.126 28.5% 5.5% 15.1% 44.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.269 0.292 0.135 30.0% 7.9% 18.0% 44.9% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,600 2B $5,200

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Steve Pearce

Stackability – GREEN

Boston

The Red Sox are also an intriguing stack option in the early slate. They are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching and they draw an exploitable matchup against Francisco Liriano, who walks a ton of batters and gives up a lot of hard contact. Even through his struggles, Liriano has been tough on lefties. Load up on the right-handed batters in this lineup in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.361 0.332 0.203 35.4% 11.4% 6.3% 38.5% OF $4,100 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.270 0.265 0.039 22.0% 10.5% 17.5% 65.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
3 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.435 0.405 0.163 36.6% 22.4% 6.9% 40.0% 2B $3,800 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.371 0.401 0.280 43.6% 19.4% 17.7% 38.5% 1B $3,200 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
5 Chris Young RIGHT 0.299 0.327 0.085 28.9% 13.2% 10.3% 36.5% OF $2,600 OF $5,000 OF $9,900
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.421 0.348 0.234 34.0% 8.3% 19.4% 58.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.303 0.306 0.128 23.7% 7.8% 17.6% 34.2% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.404 0.351 0.333 35.3% 6.5% 19.6% 41.2% 3B $2,300 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
9 Brock Holt LEFT 0.408 0.306 0.000 25.0% 16.7% 16.7% 100.0% 3B $2,300 2B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Sandy Leon

Stackability – GREEN

Texas at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Texas Baltimore
texasmlb Cole Hamels baltimoremlb Wade Miley
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-110 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.247 0.295 30.7% 8.5% 19.8% 56.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.320 35.4% 9.5% 20.9% 56.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.325 33.7% 8.9% 22.0% 47.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 0.356 32.7% 9.0% 18.9% 47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Cole Hamels
cole-hamels-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 5 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.99 3.32 23.6% 9.1% 49.6% 32.0% 20.4%
2017 9 5.06 3.05 14.3% 7.8% 48.9% 36.6% 13.1%
L30 4 4.35 3.08 18.0% 6.0% 52.0% 37.3% 12.0%

Hamels may have a 3.05 ERA this season, but his advanced statistics are not pretty. He currently owns a 5.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He has missed some time with an injury and has looked slightly better since returning, but the form is still subpar. The good news is that he is facing an Orioles’ offense that is ranked 20th in team wOBA and 24th in strikeout rate against southpaws this season. I would have a little interest in tournaments if he was cheaper, but the low SIERA has led to an inflated price tag.

Quick Breakdown: I have a hard time paying this much for a pitcher in a game with an over/under of 10.0 runs.

Wade Miley
wade-miley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 18 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.21 5.37 19.3% 6.9% 47.3% 33.3% 17.3%
2017 19 4.97 5.40 19.2% 12.6% 52.4% 33.0% 18.9%
L30 5 5.54 9.00 15.7% 13.0% 49.4% 29.6% 13.6%

If you have read any of my Grind Downs this season, then you know I’ve been harping the eventual regression for Miley. We’ve seen that come to fruition over the last 30 days with a 9.00 ERA during that stretch. Given his high walk rate and batted ball profile, it was only a matter of time before teams started scoring runs against him. I’ve been fading Miley all season and that will continue tonight against the Rangers in a game that is expected to be a shootout.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Miley in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers have been dreadful against left-handed pitching this season, but a matchup against Wade Miley should help. In addition to his high walk rate, Miley has allowed a .320 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .356 xwOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. He also gives up a lot of hard contact to batters from both sides of the plate. I’m willing to overlook the bad team numbers for the Rangers, as I love to stack against Miley.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.317 0.347 0.072 21.4% 16.3% 16.3% 59.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.304 0.272 0.175 29.0% 3.6% 14.3% 47.8% SS $3,000 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
3 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.339 0.400 0.080 43.5% 22.9% 8.6% 34.8% 3B $3,500 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.352 0.335 0.333 44.4% 10.0% 38.6% 27.8% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
5 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.248 0.227 0.085 13.6% 6.1% 22.7% 72.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.292 0.247 0.140 25.8% 3.5% 36.8% 26.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
7 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.201 0.236 0.045 37.9% 2.1% 23.4% 52.3% 2B $2,800 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
8 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.283 0.316 0.117 20.0% 1.6% 8.2% 60.0% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.332 0.263 0.106 31.7% 12.8% 34.6% 35.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,500

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy or Robinson Chirinos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

This is an interesting game because we have two bad offenses against southpaws that are facing two struggling southpaws. Something has to give in these matchups. Given the high over/under, I would rather take a shot on the offenses. Over the last two seasons, Cole Hamels has allowed a .325 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, and Welington Castillo all have a .344+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.290 0.278 0.125 27.8% 6.6% 23.6% 38.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.333 0.394 0.227 51.3% 9.3% 18.5% 45.5% 3B $3,600 3B $4,700 3B $9,200
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.389 0.388 0.283 38.6% 8.7% 22.3% 42.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.287 0.263 0.126 29.0% 6.4% 24.5% 42.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.324 0.344 0.169 32.7% 10.4% 37.5% 32.7% 1B $3,100 1B $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.302 0.346 0.165 34.7% 4.0% 24.8% 50.0% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.335 0.357 0.138 47.5% 3.3% 30.0% 27.5% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.289 0.266 0.107 30.9% 5.5% 19.8% 34.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.237 0.298 0.050 37.5% 0.0% 20.0% 37.5% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,800

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious