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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-02 01:28:21

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Oakland at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Oakland Cleveland
oaklandmlb Jharel Cotton clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-220 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.264 24.7% 9.9% 21.2% 35.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.293 29.2% 7.1% 23.5% 45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.301 37.3% 5.8% 20.2% 36.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.285 30.6% 6.6% 29.0% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jharel Cotton
jharel-cotton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 11 of 16 Salary Rank: 14 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.02 2.15 20.5% 3.6% 37.6% 28.2% 22.4%
2017 8 4.62 5.56 20.7% 9.8% 34.6% 34.6% 19.2%

We have a light schedule on Thursday with four early games and four late games. Cotton will take the mound for the ninth time this season. After showing a ton of promise in the minors and pitching well in his five game major league stint last season, his struggles this year are a bit surprising. He has a strikeout rate above 20%, but he has a high SIERA and he is allowing a lot of hard contact. In a road start against the Indians, he can be avoided in cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: The risk is greater than the potential reward for Cotton.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 16 Salary Rank: 2 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.50 3.14 26.4% 6.6% 44.5% 27.6% 19.9%
2017 6 3.70 5.06 26.0% 8.2% 39.4% 42.3% 19.2%

Kluber is making his first start in nearly a month, after being placed on the DL with a back injury. He was expected to make a couple of rehab starts, but he pitched so well in the first one that the Indians decided to call him up for today’s start. As with most pitchers coming back from injury, the Indians will lighten the load on Kluber, so we should expect some type of pitch count. While we don’t know the exact number, 85 pitches from Kluber might be the best the early slate has to offer.

Quick Breakdown: Even with potential rust issues and a potential pitch count, Kluber is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s draw one of the worst matchups in the slate. Since the start of last season, Corey Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Khris Davis always carries some GPP appeal and Chad Pinder has been mashing the baseball, but they are deep GPP options at best in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.298 0.271 0.139 26.8% 6.3% 19.0% 47.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
2 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.304 0.323 0.160 32.7% 5.6% 20.0% 43.5% 3B $2,400 3B $3,000 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.323 0.318 0.125 32.8% 8.3% 16.6% 37.5% 2B $2,500 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.352 0.372 0.291 41.1% 7.5% 27.9% 43.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.330 0.363 0.161 34.3% 9.9% 15.3% 39.7% 1B $2,900 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.325 0.327 0.189 32.7% 4.7% 24.0% 39.3% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.344 0.368 0.208 37.3% 17.8% 22.2% 41.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Josh Phegley RIGHT 0.281 0.262 0.129 29.5% 4.0% 13.3% 39.3% C $2,300 C $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.286 0.254 0.193 30.3% 6.4% 32.2% 34.8% 2B $2,300 SS $2,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis (GPP), Chad Pinder (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians have a high implied run total and draw a favorable matchup against Jharel Cotton, who has allowed a 35% hard contact rate this season. Cotton has some serious reverse-splits, which benefits the right-handed bat of Edwin Encarnacion. The lefties are still viable targets and you can make a strong case to roster any of the one through seven batters in this lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.341 0.342 0.189 38.0% 9.2% 19.5% 37.1% 2B $3,300 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.352 0.349 0.169 27.6% 8.9% 13.0% 46.2% SS $3,200 SS $4,900 N/A N/A
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.348 0.353 0.149 37.7% 10.0% 13.3% 47.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.378 0.403 0.267 38.3% 15.0% 16.9% 36.4% 1B $3,800 1B $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.361 0.379 0.254 37.8% 11.0% 21.3% 38.3% 1B $3,900 1B $4,800 N/A N/A
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.355 0.333 0.166 26.4% 7.9% 9.7% 38.3% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $5,000 N/A N/A
7 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.459 0.390 0.250 41.7% 20.0% 32.0% 36.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.229 0.294 0.063 25.0% 13.3% 24.3% 50.5% C $2,200 C $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.291 0.298 0.091 29.0% 13.8% 27.7% 41.7% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Bradley Zimmer

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Milwaukee NY Mets
milwaukeemlb Chase Anderson nymetsmlb Zack Wheeler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-150 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.316 34.6% 9.2% 20.0% 32.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.309 48.1% 9.4% 28.2% 42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.375 0.350 37.4% 8.0% 19.0% 38.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.300 28.4% 11.3% 16.9% 54.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chase Anderson
chase-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 16 Salary Rank: 8 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.68 4.39 18.6% 8.2% 36.1% 36.6% 17.2%
2017 10 4.34 3.72 21.9% 9.2% 35.7% 35.2% 17.9%

Anderson is coming off of a terrific start at home against the Diamondbacks. He struck out 11 batters without giving up a single run in seven innings of action. He has improved in a few areas this season, but he’s still a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. It sounds strange, but it’s actually good news for him that he is facing a left-handed heavy Mets’ lineup because he has some serious reverse splits.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson isn’t the worst play on the board, but I’d rather target the opposing pitcher in this game.

Zack Wheeler
zack-wheeler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 16 Salary Rank: 7 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 9 4.31 3.83 21.5% 10.5% 50.0% 35.7% 19.3%

Wheeler was taken out of his last start a little early due to a blister on his pitching hand. These blisters can be tricky, but we have to assume that he’s fine to pitch today’s game. He has recorded at least four strikeouts in each of his last six starts and has a 22% strikeout rate on the season. Some will be scared of the Brewers’ offense after they scored seven runs on Jacob deGrom yesterday, but I’m going right back to the well. They are still missing one of their best hitters (Ryan Braun) and they have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Wheeler is a sizable favorite at home and is facing a high-strikeout offense. Sign me up.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Eric Thames came alive in last night’s win against Jacob deGrom and the Mets. It will be interesting to see if he can go on another home run barrage. He is firmly in play today against Zack Wheeler, who has allowed a massive 48% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Travis Shaw is also viable since he also bats from the left side. The righties in this lineup can be avoided as Wheeler has held them to a .300 xwOBA with a 55% ground ball rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.318 0.288 0.177 38.1% 9.7% 37.1% 44.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.403 0.353 0.279 42.0% 16.8% 21.9% 42.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.312 0.292 0.152 30.8% 4.8% 18.8% 48.0% OF $2,900 3B/OF $3,200 N/A N/A
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.335 0.331 0.199 36.3% 8.1% 23.5% 38.7% 3B $3,600 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.340 0.341 0.183 34.6% 11.3% 31.7% 45.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.298 0.294 0.151 28.6% 4.2% 18.1% 32.0% C $2,700 C $2,800 N/A N/A
7 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.329 0.303 0.140 35.4% 11.0% 25.6% 60.9% 2B $2,900 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.263 0.249 0.129 25.2% 4.9% 20.3% 54.7% SS $2,400 SS $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Chase Anderson RIGHT 0.088 0.109 0.000 17.2% 0.0% 51.6% 69.6% P $8,400 P $7,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Eric Thames

Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

The Mets are an intriguing stack in the early slate for a couple of reasons. First off, we don’t have many choices to begin with. But most importantly, they are facing a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 35%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Anderson has struggled with the long ball and six of the Mets’ projected starters have an xwOBA of at least .323 against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.373 0.368 0.259 44.2% 12.0% 24.3% 36.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.278 0.269 0.124 26.1% 7.6% 16.8% 37.5% 3B $2,800 3B/SS $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.375 0.372 0.299 42.3% 9.3% 20.4% 35.1% OF $3,800 1B/OF $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.329 0.346 0.172 34.1% 8.7% 18.7% 37.4% 2B $3,300 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.353 0.374 0.224 37.1% 13.1% 21.9% 32.5% 1B $2,900 1B $4,500 N/A N/A
6 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.337 0.337 0.229 36.7% 12.4% 19.7% 34.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.338 0.323 0.193 35.1% 6.9% 17.9% 36.7% SS $3,100 SS $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.282 0.300 0.114 33.3% 6.1% 17.0% 49.3% C $2,500 C $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Zack Wheeler RIGHT 0.148 0.170 0.056 9.1% 5.0% 40.0% 37.5% P $7,900 P $8,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

LA Dodgers St. Louis
ladodgersmlb Brandon McCarthy stlouismlb Adam Wainwright
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-102 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.290 0.296 29.8% 10.1% 21.4% 39.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.339 34.0% 8.5% 18.7% 42.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.278 32.7% 11.2% 26.3% 44.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.312 28.7% 6.3% 19.5% 46.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brandon McCarthy
brandon-mccarthy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 16 Salary Rank: 4 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.76 4.95 25.7% 15.2% 34.7% 36.4% 20.2%
2017 8 3.77 3.28 22.0% 6.5% 47.3% 27.3% 25.0%

McCarthy has pitched well in his eight starts this season, posting a 3.77 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 22%. He has been able to keep the ball on the ground this season, which has led to more soft and medium contact. The issue with McCarthy is that he rarely throws more than 100 pitches. For example, despite pitching well in his last two starts, he only threw 75 and 79 pitches. Corey Kluber should see that many pitches and draws the better matchup of the two.

Quick Breakdown: McCarthy is a decent play for the price, but the Cardinals are ranked tenth in team wOBA and eighth in strikeout rate against righties.

Adam Wainwright
adam-wainwright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 16 Salary Rank: 6 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.31 4.62 19.0% 7.0% 43.8% 31.2% 19.1%
2017 10 4.29 4.20 19.5% 8.5% 48.8% 30.7% 19.3%

Wainwright is having a very similar season to 2016. In his first ten starts of the year, he has a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate right around 20%. Much like last season, he has been better at home than on the road and he draws a home start today against the Dodgers. This typically isn’t a great matchup for a right-handed pitcher that struggles with left-handed hitters, but the Dodgers aren’t rolling out eight lefties anymore. In fact, their projected lineup has five righties in it. If that ends up being the case, Wainwright becomes a viable option in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: I want to see the Dodgers’ lineup first, but if there aren’t too many lefties, Wainwright is viable in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Over the last two seasons, Adam Wainwright has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez, and Chase Utley are all viable secondary plays here, even though this isn’t a great ballpark for offensive production.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.326 0.335 0.164 35.7% 8.7% 24.0% 42.3% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.375 0.320 0.309 40.0% 10.9% 29.3% 37.7% OF $4,000 1B/OF $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.363 0.352 0.256 39.7% 11.6% 25.4% 43.7% C $3,300 C $3,200 N/A N/A
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.350 0.346 0.172 35.9% 9.6% 19.0% 43.8% 1B $2,500 1B $3,300 N/A N/A
5 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.351 0.315 0.196 30.0% 11.8% 25.2% 52.6% OF $3,200 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Chase Utley LEFT 0.330 0.331 0.151 38.8% 8.2% 17.9% 47.9% 2B $2,600 1B/2B $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Enrique Hernandez RIGHT 0.260 0.291 0.130 28.0% 6.9% 25.8% 34.0% OF $2,700 OF/SS $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.324 0.326 0.165 34.4% 7.7% 21.1% 48.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Brandon McCarthy RIGHT 0.152 0.202 0.000 18.2% 16.0% 40.0% 85.7% P $8,600 P $9,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals draw a tough matchup against Brandon McCarthy, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA in the last two seasons. Even though the splits aren’t in their favor, Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter are both in play. They both have a .355+ wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.355 0.338 0.179 29.9% 13.8% 25.1% 36.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.362 0.360 0.228 47.3% 9.0% 33.1% 50.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.384 0.415 0.258 46.6% 16.1% 19.7% 28.4% 1B $3,400 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
4 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.329 0.336 0.120 31.7% 6.1% 10.9% 47.3% C $2,900 C $3,300 N/A N/A
5 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.365 0.317 0.212 30.5% 6.9% 12.7% 44.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
6 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.330 0.336 0.142 32.6% 7.1% 16.6% 42.5% 3B $2,400 3B $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 2.015 0.712 3.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3B $2,200 3B $2,300 N/A N/A
8 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.305 0.336 0.100 27.3% 10.9% 17.4% 59.4% OF $2,300 1B/OF $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Adam Wainwright RIGHT 0.332 0.291 0.268 29.8% 3.1% 23.4% 39.0% P $8,500 P $8,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET

Colorado Seattle
coloradomlb Kyle Freeland seattlemlb Yovani Gallardo
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-130 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.356 0.271 37.5% 8.3% 25.0% 46.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.332 28.2% 13.7% 18.5% 39.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.303 33.3% 11.1% 12.1% 64.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.362 0.346 29.8% 8.9% 14.5% 49.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Freeland
kyle-freeland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 16 Salary Rank: 9 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 4.77 3.43 14.6% 10.5% 61.4% 34.1% 22.0%

Freeland hasn’t been a great DFS play this season. In ten starts, he has a 4.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 15%. He hasn’t shown great command and he has a 34% hard contact rate, which is surprising for a ground ball pitcher. Even though the Mariners are awful against left-handed pitching, Freeland is an easy fade here. He has more risk than potential reward as an underdog on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Freeland in all formats.

Yovani Gallardo
yovani-gallardo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 14 of 16 Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 23 5.34 5.42 16.2% 11.6% 43.2% 27.5% 18.5%
2017 10 4.79 5.76 16.7% 10.2% 49.2% 32.4% 17.3%

Gallardo will have a decent outing every now and then, but we shouldn’t go chasing it when it comes to DFS. He is a low strikeout pitcher with below-average command. He does induces a lot of soft and medium contact, but all we are about are the strikeouts. The Rockies typically struggle away from Coors Field, but this isn’t a lineup that we want to pick on with Gallardo.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gallardo in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies draw a favorable matchup today against Yovani Gallardo, who has allowed a .332+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Gallardo also has a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, which should create plenty of RBI opportunities for these batters. I know they aren’t the same offense on the road, but it’s hard not to like the Rockies here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.414 0.372 0.285 38.7% 6.8% 17.9% 30.7% OF $4,500 OF $5,600 N/A N/A
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.363 0.372 0.118 32.1% 9.4% 12.6% 53.3% 2B $3,100 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.373 0.345 0.263 37.1% 8.0% 14.1% 35.8% 3B $4,100 3B $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.355 0.345 0.188 34.3% 9.7% 18.2% 44.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.393 0.329 0.225 30.9% 9.4% 24.6% 40.2% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.322 0.301 0.155 30.8% 5.9% 25.3% 55.9% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.297 0.299 0.169 35.7% 2.6% 18.3% 51.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.342 0.325 0.252 36.8% 8.4% 31.7% 29.1% SS $3,200 SS $4,300 N/A N/A
9 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.333 0.293 0.132 22.7% 10.9% 21.3% 40.9% C $2,300 C $2,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Mark Reynolds, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle

The Mariners have been one of the worst offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching, but a matchup against Kyle Freeland could be just what they need to get going. He is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a 33%+ hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate. The Mariners have one of the highest implied run totals in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.331 0.311 0.138 32.4% 8.2% 20.2% 50.0% SS $3,600 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.387 0.385 0.188 33.1% 11.5% 16.5% 48.5% 1B $3,000 1B $2,700 N/A N/A
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.313 0.306 0.166 31.1% 4.6% 15.7% 52.0% 2B $3,800 2B $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.408 0.434 0.333 38.6% 11.8% 22.1% 45.0% OF $4,000 OF $5,200 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.307 0.340 0.175 32.7% 7.4% 19.6% 39.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Taylor Motter RIGHT 0.307 0.343 0.123 29.6% 12.1% 19.7% 40.9% OF $2,800 2B/SS $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.310 0.291 0.084 20.2% 7.7% 12.0% 47.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.320 0.348 0.185 41.9% 18.8% 33.3% 35.5% C $2,500 C $2,500 N/A N/A
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.330 0.268 0.089 9.4% 6.2% 7.7% 61.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Danny Valencia, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Taylor Motter

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez baltimoremlb Wade Miley
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.293 23.3% 9.2% 24.8% 41.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.313 35.5% 9.4% 21.0% 55.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.301 28.8% 8.9% 23.0% 30.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.354 0.349 33.9% 8.2% 19.6% 47.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 4 of 16 Salary Rank: 5 of 16 Salary Rank: 3 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.44 4.71 21.8% 8.7% 31.6% 27.6% 22.2%
2017 9 3.83 2.77 26.6% 9.5% 33.8% 27.9% 19.3%

Rodriguez is having a solid season for the Red Sox. In nine starts, he has a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a hard contact rate of 28%. He draws an excellent matchup for a lefty, as the Orioles have the fifth highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Rodriguez is pitching on the road in a good hitter’s park, but is still one of the top pitching options in the late slate.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is viable in tournaments and as an SP2 in cash games.

Wade Miley
wade-miley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 16 Salary Rank: 13 of 16 Salary Rank: 7 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.21 5.37 19.3% 6.9% 47.3% 33.3% 17.3%
2017 10 4.55 3.02 21.6% 13.1% 54.6% 37.3% 19.6%

Miley can’t sustain a 3.02 ERA much longer with the way he is pitching. He has a 13% walk rate and a 37% hard contact rate. Eventually, teams are going to start stringing hits together against him and when that happens, he is going to get shelled. Fading Miley hasn’t paid off much this season, but patience is a virtue. Good things come to those who wait.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Miley in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are one of the best hitting teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. They draw a favorable matchup against Wade Miley and they get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Boston is my favorite stack in the slate, although Toronto is a close second. Over the last two seasons, Miley has allowed a .349 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.336 0.336 0.237 33.6% 5.4% 9.0% 38.7% OF $4,500 OF $5,300 RF $10,200
2 Josh Rutledge RIGHT 0.331 0.342 0.083 26.3% 11.1% 18.5% 42.1% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,700
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.366 0.340 0.152 34.2% 11.0% 16.9% 45.5% SS $3,800 SS $4,800 SS $9,200
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.432 0.404 0.310 39.1% 11.5% 18.2% 40.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
5 Chris Young RIGHT 0.390 0.335 0.219 33.8% 11.8% 20.0% 21.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
6 Sam Travis RIGHT 0.440 0.265 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 1B $2,700 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.433 0.384 0.222 26.6% 11.3% 13.2% 41.0% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.305 0.274 0.127 30.1% 8.4% 24.3% 51.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 CF $8,800
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.320 0.317 0.222 27.3% 10.0% 35.0% 36.4% SS $2,100 3B $3,200 3B $6,300

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young, Sam Travis

Secondary Plays – Josh Rutledge, Sandy Leon

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are a boom or bust offense that is facing a pitcher that has been inconsistent prior to this season. Eduardo Rodriguez has a high strikeout rate, but he is a fly-ball pitcher that can struggle with right-handed power at times. For cash games, I will be avoiding the Orioles, but in tournaments, we can look to the right-handed bats of Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, and Trey Mancini.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.350 0.314 0.163 28.9% 6.8% 19.7% 36.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.251 0.271 0.093 30.8% 6.4% 21.4% 38.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.376 0.405 0.215 42.4% 10.0% 14.8% 40.7% 3B $3,600 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.274 0.289 0.187 36.5% 6.6% 25.3% 42.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.329 0.342 0.183 35.2% 12.0% 32.3% 33.8% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.376 0.391 0.277 37.0% 4.4% 27.9% 47.8% OF $3,200 1B/OF $3,500 1B $6,900
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.288 0.266 0.153 24.3% 5.2% 23.3% 50.0% 2B $3,300 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.305 0.317 0.160 39.9% 8.1% 15.0% 47.4% SS $2,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.208 0.303 0.093 23.8% 3.5% 21.1% 40.5% C $2,300 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious