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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-23 02:32:10

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

St. Louis Philadelphia
Article Image Carlos Martinez Article Image Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-132 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.324 35.0% 11.3% 20.6% 52.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.313 29.7% 9.4% 20.8% 52.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.237 0.231 25.3% 5.8% 27.2% 57.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.271 28.0% 3.6% 27.1% 54.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $13,500 Salary: $26,000
Salary Rank: 1 of 23 Salary Rank: 1 of 23 Salary Rank: 1 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.97 3.04 21.5% 8.7% 56.4% 29.6% 19.1%
2017 14 3.58 2.86 28.5% 8.8% 50.9% 32.5% 20.9%

Martinez is the most expensive pitcher available today and that includes the six evening games. I generally recommend avoiding pitchers in Citizens Bank Park, but Martinez has the tools needed to pitch well here. He has an above-average strikeout rate (29%) and an above-average ground ball rate (51%). When you are inducing ground balls and striking batters out at a high rate, it doesn’t matter what ballpark you are playing in. There is also some upside in this matchup, as the Phillies are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Martinez is the top pitcher in the early and all-day slates. Target him in both cash games and GPPs.

Aaron Nola
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 23 Salary Rank: 13 of 23 Salary Rank: 13 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 9 4.08 4.76 21.8% 7.4% 49.7% 29.0% 23.0%

Nola has had a lower SIERA than ERA in each of the last two seasons. The advanced numbers are solid, we just need to wait for the results to follow. In nine starts this season, he owns a 4.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 50%. He induces a lot of soft and medium contact, which is needed in this ballpark. I’m not opposed to using him in tournaments as an SP2, but the Cardinals’ offense has been heating up over the last few weeks.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is viable in tournaments if you are looking for a leverage play off of the highly owned Martinez.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have finally started to score some runs, but I suppose it’s not that hard to do when you are playing in Philadelphia. While they are favored in this game, their matchup against Aaron Nola isn’t very appealing. In addition to the high ground ball rate, He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.388 0.418 0.263 46.4% 15.2% 19.3% 27.2% 1B $4,200 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
2 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.366 0.351 0.202 31.9% 13.8% 23.9% 36.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,800 CF $9,300
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.329 0.349 0.157 32.6% 8.1% 20.9% 45.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.354 0.338 0.257 34.7% 7.8% 24.3% 42.8% 3B $3,100 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.326 0.331 0.119 31.7% 6.0% 11.7% 48.0% C $2,900 C $4,100 C $8,100
6 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.356 0.310 0.209 29.6% 6.5% 12.8% 44.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
7 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.347 0.347 0.195 42.3% 10.5% 30.9% 54.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
8 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.299 0.294 0.190 28.6% 0.0% 33.3% 39.3% 2B $2,600 2B $4,000 3B $7,600
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.171 0.163 0.000 17.2% 0.0% 15.7% 75.0% P $10,400 P $13,500 P $26,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko, Aledmys Diaz

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw the worst matchup in the entire slate. Even though they are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, they are an easy fade against Carlos Martinez, who has an above-average strikeout rate and keeps the ball on the ground. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.336 0.311 0.154 29.6% 8.1% 20.3% 42.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.318 0.331 0.136 34.4% 7.1% 18.7% 59.6% OF $2,700 2B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.305 0.294 0.142 33.2% 8.7% 31.1% 46.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.327 0.326 0.200 38.0% 5.5% 22.9% 42.0% 1B $3,000 1B $2,700 1B $5,400
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.289 0.320 0.147 29.3% 6.6% 16.5% 45.3% 3B $3,000 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
6 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.315 0.337 0.114 35.3% 8.4% 18.2% 37.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 LF $5,700
7 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.350 0.331 0.188 39.6% 12.5% 27.5% 60.4% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,600
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.303 0.275 0.174 27.9% 5.8% 21.4% 40.1% SS $2,300 SS $2,400 SS $4,800
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.104 0.139 0.029 5.3% 7.5% 42.5% 76.5% P $7,700 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Minnesota
Article Image Jose Quintana Article Image Nik Turley
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS-110 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.286 31.0% 4.7% 21.9% 49.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.441 0.372 33.3% 16.7% 16.7% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.303 32.5% 7.5% 21.9% 38.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.510 0.429 41.9% 7.5% 15.0% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 8 of 23 Salary Rank: 6 of 23 Salary Rank: 6 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.01 3.20 21.6% 6.0% 40.4% 32.7% 18.6%
2017 14 4.39 5.07 22.6% 9.1% 41.2% 30.8% 18.6%

Quintana has nearly a full two run difference between his ERA from last season and his ERA from this season, yet he’s basically been the same pitcher. He has a similar SIERA (4.39) with a higher strikeout rate and a lower hard contact rate, yet he’s giving up runs in bunches. I hate to say it, but that’s just baseball. His BABIP is up this season and he has allowed a lot more home runs. I’m not overly concerned about Quintana, but I’m not a fan of his matchup against the Twins, who have some tough right-handed batters in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: With this game being played in Minnesota, the risk may outweigh the upside.

Nik Turley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 23 of 23 Salary Rank: 24 of 23 Salary Rank: 24 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 4.90 12.46 15.2% 8.7% 48.5% 41.2% 14.7%

Turley wasn’t a high draft pick and never really thought of as a top pitching prospect. He is nearly 28 years old and was recently called up for the first time in his career. In fact, this will only be his ninth career start above Double-A. He has shown tremendous strikeout potential in the minors this season though, posting a 33% k-rate in five Triple-A starts. He has a fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup that he mixes in every now and then. With the White Sox being one of the best offenses in baseball against southpaws, it doesn’t hurt to watch this one from the sidelines.

Quick Breakdown: Turley is worth keeping an eye on, but it’s too early to target him in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are slight favorites in this game, which isn’t a big surprise considering how well they have hit left-handed pitching this season. Their matchup against Nik Turley is a bit of an unknown, but he has really struggled in his first two major league starts. I’m treating this like a matchup against an average left-handed pitcher and if that’s the case, we should like all of the right-handed hitters in this lineup. It always feels strange stacking the White Sox, but it’s certainly viable in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.362 0.301 0.203 31.1% 5.4% 14.6% 42.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.334 0.295 0.102 37.7% 2.5% 27.0% 55.8% SS $2,800 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.391 0.415 0.233 42.4% 8.9% 18.7% 45.0% 1B $3,800 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.366 0.369 0.172 42.4% 7.3% 21.9% 54.4% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.333 0.345 0.259 31.4% 13.8% 25.1% 22.9% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
6 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.393 0.334 0.262 26.7% 7.6% 24.2% 31.1% 1B $3,100 1B/3B $4,300 3B $8,400
7 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.279 0.268 0.132 18.7% 6.9% 19.6% 51.4% 2B $3,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
8 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.199 0.252 0.106 23.7% 0.0% 18.8% 56.8% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.573 0.566 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 CF $5,200

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Tim Anderson, Todd Frazier, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota

The Twins hit left-handed pitching as a whole and have plenty of experience against Jose Quintana in the past (268 plate appearances). They have a fairly high implied run total and have been swinging the bat well at home. I’ve been on the Twins’ stack in each of the last two slates, but I would rather pick and choose my spots here instead of going with the full stack. Quintana isn’t a pitcher that gets shelled very often, as he is generally very good at limiting the damage against him. With that said, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, and Robbie Grossman are all on my radar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.409 0.350 0.314 40.3% 10.4% 19.9% 33.6% 2B $3,300 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
2 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.303 0.320 0.150 31.0% 6.4% 20.2% 39.7% SS $3,300 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,800
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.368 0.344 0.264 43.5% 14.4% 32.8% 34.8% 3B $4,300 3B $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
4 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.400 0.375 0.185 34.1% 15.5% 18.4% 42.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
5 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.262 0.297 0.083 26.0% 8.1% 17.4% 58.3% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
6 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.347 0.336 0.247 35.1% 9.3% 24.4% 54.4% 1B $3,100 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.280 0.230 0.060 19.2% 2.8% 23.1% 54.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
8 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.306 0.273 0.174 30.8% 11.3% 31.9% 31.8% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.253 0.313 0.107 34.1% 10.2% 27.2% 47.3% C $3,200 C $3,100 C $6,000

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano, Robbie Grossman

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Toronto Texas
Article Image Marcus Stroman Article Image Martin Perez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-118 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.313 33.5% 7.1% 19.1% 60.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.305 25.3% 9.7% 20.7% 53.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.302 29.2% 5.2% 19.9% 60.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.343 0.363 33.8% 8.7% 11.8% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 23 Salary Rank: 5 of 23 Salary Rank: 5 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 14 3.68 3.15 19.7% 5.8% 61.2% 30.2% 21.5%

Stroman can pitch well anywhere. He relies on an elite ground ball rate and an average strikeout rate, which often takes ballpark factors out of the equation. In 14 starts this season, he owns a 3.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a ground ball rate of 61%. He induces a lot of soft and medium contact, which allows him to limit extra base hits. He’s a better play than most people realize today, but that doesn’t mean that we need to go out of our way to target him. He is still pitching on the road in a good hitting environment and we aren’t getting any sort of discount.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is viable in tournaments in the early slate, but there are better cash game options.

Martin Perez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 23 Salary Rank: 20 of 23 Salary Rank: 20 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 5.11 4.39 12.1% 8.9% 53.2% 30.7% 15.9%
2017 14 4.89 4.72 17.0% 8.8% 43.8% 36.8% 13.8%

Perez is a pitcher that I do not target in DFS. I don’t have a personal vendetta against him or anything like that, he just doesn’t strike anyone out. He used to rely on a high ground ball rate, but even that has tailed off this season (44%). He seems to have traded in the high ground ball rate for a slightly higher strikeout rate and a much higher hard contact rate. That doesn’t sound like a great trade-off, unless we are looking at it from the Blue Jays’ point of view.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Perez in all formats. He is going to struggle mightily against the righties of the Blue Jays.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays should be licking their chops for today’s matchup against Martin Perez. We’ve seen his ground ball rate dip nearly 10% this season, which was the one and only reason we didn’t love stacking against him last year. Now that we have that out of the way, fire up your Blue Jays’ stacks. Perez has always struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a .363 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.279 0.339 0.150 34.6% 14.0% 21.5% 43.6% OF $3,800 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.316 0.361 0.163 45.5% 16.6% 29.4% 42.0% C $2,500 C $4,200 C $8,000
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.408 0.418 0.245 39.3% 19.0% 14.1% 33.6% 3B $3,900 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.338 0.362 0.175 34.2% 9.8% 15.7% 40.4% 1B $3,700 1B $5,100 1B $9,900
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.383 0.397 0.229 40.0% 4.7% 20.0% 38.9% 1B $3,700 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.335 0.308 0.164 35.8% 3.7% 14.7% 36.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
7 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.304 0.317 0.146 30.4% 9.8% 15.0% 44.3% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
8 Dwight Smith Jr. LEFT 0.296 OF $2,000 OF $2,900 LF $5,700
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.304 0.290 0.082 25.4% 8.1% 18.0% 41.0% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,300 2B $4,500

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

The Rangers are only slight underdogs today, but that has more to do with the fact that they are playing at home than anything else. They clearly have the more difficult matchup of these two teams. In addition to the elite ground ball rate, Marcus Stroman has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA in the last two seasons. If you are targeting any Rangers’ hitters today, make sure they can get the ball in the air (high fly ball rate).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.336 0.384 0.162 40.9% 13.1% 21.1% 47.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.337 0.317 0.140 26.9% 7.8% 14.3% 46.5% SS $3,000 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.344 0.336 0.190 31.0% 8.2% 18.9% 43.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.355 0.363 0.200 33.9% 6.5% 10.9% 40.1% 3B $3,800 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.334 0.299 0.248 34.8% 3.1% 22.4% 39.3% 2B $3,600 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.323 0.301 0.183 33.5% 9.1% 27.7% 41.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
7 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.323 0.329 0.236 34.4% 9.5% 30.0% 36.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.351 0.336 0.173 30.4% 7.1% 14.6% 42.8% C $2,800 C $3,400 C $6,800
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.319 0.322 0.289 41.8% 12.5% 38.9% 27.2% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Milwaukee
Article Image Ivan Nova Article Image Chase Anderson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-113 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.359 35.8% 3.5% 12.4% 46.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.301 32.8% 8.5% 20.9% 34.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.285 31.3% 3.5% 20.9% 56.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.366 0.343 37.4% 7.5% 19.3% 38.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 23 Salary Rank: 9 of 23 Salary Rank: 9 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 14 4.34 2.91 14.3% 2.4% 48.8% 32.0% 17.3%

Nova throws a ton of strikes and he gets a ton of quick outs. There are times when he gets through seven innings and his pitch count is still in the 70s. His ability to pitch deep into games is appealing, but it’s not accompanied by a high strikeout rate. He does draw a plus matchup for strikeouts today against the Brewers, but the tradeoff is pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I will likely be avoiding Nova here, but a case can be made for him if the Brewers only have a couple of lefties in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Nova should have the platoon advantage here, but I’m not a fan of the ballpark or of him pitching on the road.

Chase Anderson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,300
Salary Rank: 4 of 23 Salary Rank: 3 of 23 Salary Rank: 3 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.68 4.39 18.6% 8.2% 36.1% 36.6% 17.2%
2017 14 4.19 2.92 22.8% 7.4% 38.7% 33.1% 18.5%

Anderson isn’t quite as good as his 2.92 ERA wants you to believe, but he has had a nice season overall. In 14 starts, he has a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He has managed to cut down on his walks and on his hard contact, which has obviously helped. Today’s matchup against the Pirates is average at best. While they don’t have a lot of power in their lineup, they have the third lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t hate the play, but Anderson seems a bit overpriced in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Miller Park and draw a decent matchup against Chase Anderson, who has allowed a 33%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Anderson has some serious reverse-splits though, so give the edge to the right-handed hitters in this lineup. Josh Harrison has had success against him in the past and Andrew McCutchen has seven multi-hit games in his last 11 outings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.330 0.334 0.131 31.3% 9.3% 15.1% 46.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.307 0.285 0.106 28.5% 4.1% 14.9% 42.7% 2B $3,200 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,500
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.329 0.341 0.191 33.4% 9.1% 16.8% 38.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.318 0.325 0.132 32.1% 9.0% 26.7% 59.0% 3B $3,000 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.354 0.358 0.201 34.1% 12.5% 17.1% 50.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
6 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.323 0.334 0.168 35.4% 9.4% 21.1% 37.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.311 0.328 0.092 28.6% 13.1% 19.0% 52.2% C $2,700 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.310 0.302 0.114 25.6% 8.4% 14.3% 49.2% SS $2,800 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.066 0.060 0.000 5.9% 0.0% 63.0% 50.0% P $8,500 P $7,400 P $14,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, David Freese, Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee

It’s always easy to break down an offense that is facing Ivan Nova. He is tough on right-handed hitters (.285 xwOBA with a 31% hard contact rate), but has struggled with lefties (.359 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate). The Brewers have one of the best hitter’s parks in the National League, so all of the lefties in this lineup are viable today against Nova. Manny Pina is also worth a look, as he is swinging a hot bat and catcher is rather thin in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.425 0.402 0.164 24.1% 18.1% 10.8% 37.9% 2B $3,500 2B/SS $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.432 0.373 0.348 43.2% 19.0% 22.6% 40.9% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $4,600 1B $9,000
3 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.339 0.339 0.175 35.2% 11.6% 31.4% 45.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.344 0.339 0.201 36.5% 8.7% 22.7% 38.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
5 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.316 0.298 0.167 31.2% 4.3% 18.4% 48.4% OF $3,000 3B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.351 0.317 0.195 26.6% 6.9% 17.2% 35.2% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,400
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.312 0.290 0.204 38.8% 9.2% 38.7% 43.6% OF $2,800 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.267 0.244 0.122 25.7% 4.4% 21.6% 55.1% SS $2,300 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
9 Chase Anderson RIGHT 0.109 0.104 0.015 17.7% 0.0% 50.0% 68.0% P $9,200 P $9,400 P $18,300

Elite Plays – Eric Sogard, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Manny Pina

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Arizona Colorado
Article Image Zack Godley Article Image Antonio Senzatela
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-111 11.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.310 26.0% 9.9% 20.2% 58.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.324 31.9% 8.3% 15.5% 49.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.325 35.7% 5.9% 19.2% 54.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.318 27.0% 5.6% 20.0% 46.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Godley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 20 of 23 Salary Rank: 10 of 23 Salary Rank: 10 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.16 6.39 17.9% 7.5% 53.8% 32.1% 17.9%
2017 8 3.77 2.34 22.6% 8.2% 60.8% 30.1% 21.8%

I’ve used Godley more than most this season and it’s worked out more times than not. His price never seems to come up, even though he boasts a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He also has an elite ground ball rate to go with it. The issue today is obviously the ballpark. We don’t target pitchers in Coors Field and I’m not making an exception for Godley.

Quick Breakdown: My hope today is that Godley gets shelled, so that his ownership will be low in his next start.

Antonio Senzatela
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 21 of 23 Salary Rank: 14 of 23 Salary Rank: 14 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.54 4.10 17.6% 7.0% 48.0% 29.6% 15.0%

Senzatela doesn’t do anything particularly well, which isn’t a description that I want from my starting pitcher. In 14 starts this season, he owns a 4.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18%. He has done a nice job of limiting hard contact, but he doesn’t induce much soft contact. Basically, a lot of medium contact, which isn’t great in the best hitter’s park in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Senzatela is an easy fade against the Diamondbacks in Coors Field.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks were quiet in the first game of this series, but broke out with 16 runs last night (ten of which came in one inning). They should be able to keep it rolling today against Antonio Senzatela, who has allowed a .318+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. The one through seven hitters are all in play here. The only issue I have with the Diamondbacks is how expensive they are. It’s difficult to fit more than a few of their bats into one lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.303 0.284 0.108 25.3% 12.0% 20.3% 44.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
2 David Peralta LEFT 0.341 0.314 0.162 35.9% 5.9% 18.0% 55.5% OF $4,300 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.389 0.385 0.219 39.4% 14.1% 21.2% 45.8% 1B $5,400 1B $5,900 1B $11,400
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.394 0.377 0.293 40.8% 11.8% 23.9% 42.4% 3B $4,500 3B $5,400 3B $10,400
5 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.309 0.289 0.141 31.7% 4.1% 21.0% 48.3% SS $3,700 OF/SS $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.350 0.319 0.184 33.6% 6.6% 20.3% 49.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
7 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.338 0.322 0.168 32.3% 12.5% 19.5% 43.9% 2B $3,200 2B/OF $3,900 2B $7,800
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.255 0.296 0.146 34.5% 8.7% 28.4% 37.6% C $3,500 C $4,100 C $8,000
9 Zack Godley RIGHT 0.102 0.135 0.000 11.8% 4.0% 28.0% 62.5% P $6,500 P $7,200 P $14,400

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Gregor Blanco, Chris Owings, Brandon Drury, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies have the highest implied run total on the board today and that includes the six evening games. Even though Zack Godley has a 61% ground ball rate, I’m worried about the type of pitches that he throws. As we know, the altitude in Colorado makes it tough for pitches that break and Godley only throws his fastball about 40% of the time. If his other pitches aren’t moving, it could be a long day for Zackaria. A Rockies’ stack is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.408 0.365 0.281 38.3% 7.3% 18.9% 31.1% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 CF $10,800
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.357 0.366 0.110 32.3% 9.0% 13.1% 53.8% 2B $3,900 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.370 0.343 0.260 37.4% 8.0% 15.2% 35.7% 3B $5,000 3B $5,600 3B $10,800
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.396 0.334 0.237 31.2% 9.4% 25.4% 39.6% 1B $3,800 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
5 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.349 0.342 0.182 32.8% 10.6% 17.7% 43.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.321 0.297 0.153 31.0% 6.2% 25.2% 56.2% OF $4,100 1B/OF $4,700 LF $9,200
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.340 0.322 0.240 36.8% 8.6% 31.2% 30.0% SS $3,800 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.327 0.290 0.118 20.6% 11.5% 20.1% 44.6% C $3,000 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Antonio Senzatela RIGHT 0.203 0.142 0.053 15.4% 0.0% 48.0% 57.1% P $6,200 P $6,500 P $12,900

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, Trevor Story

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious