MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-27 19:41:06

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Tampa Bay
			CC Sabathia							Jaime Schultz
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-136							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.272	18.0%	1.03	27.6%	54.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.179	0.191	28.6%	0.00	30.6%	18.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.311	31.0%	1.18	19.4%	42.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.374	0.398	46.2%	3.07	23.9%	35.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			1 of 4	Salary Rank:			6 of 4	Salary Rank:
	2017	27	4.45	3.69	19.3%	8.0%	49.9%	27.2%	24.1%	90.9	8.9%
	2018	28	4.28	3.77	20.9%	7.9%	44.4%	29.2%	24.6%	90.4	10.8%
	L14	2	4.45	7.56	17.5%	7.5%	55.2%	33.3%	23.3%	89.6	10.2%

We have a light eight game schedule on tap today, including two early games. Sabathia was knocked around a bit in his last start, but is the clear number one in the early slate. In 28 starts this season, he owns a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and an elite soft contact rate of 25%. He’s not a pitcher that gets shelled very often and he should benefit from facing four lefties today against the Rays, whose lineup has an average k-rate of 25% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is your best bet at pitcher in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jaime Schultz
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			4 of 4	Salary Rank:			13 of 4	Salary Rank:

	2018	0	3.98	4.55	27.7%	12.6%	29.9%	38.2%	14.7%	94.9	13.3%
	L14	0	5.13	8.44	16.7%	8.3%	23.5%	35.3%	17.7%	94.6	14.9%

Schultz is going to draw the start today, but this will be another bullpen game for the Rays. Unfortunately, the long reliever that is expected to come in after Schultz (Austin Pruitt) isn’t stretched enough to pitch more than a couple of innings himself. This basically makes any and all Rays’ pitchers avoidable, especially in a matchup against the Yankees, whose lineup boasts a .349 xwOBA and a .190 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Schultz and Pruitt in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees will start off with an exploitable matchup against Jaime Schultz and will get another one against Austin Pruitt. They are both hittable righties and with the other game in this slate being played in Coors Field, the Yankees should go under-owned in all formats. This offense has as much upside as any and this is a great way to gain leverage on the field. Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Neil Walker, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres all boast a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.296	0.143	27.8%	11.4%	16.2%	48.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.395	0.249	47.6%	12.7%	31.1%	45.5%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Luke Voit	RIGHT	0.438	0.299	41.2%	13.5%	28.1%	36.5%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.324	0.206	37.8%	8.9%	31.9%	46.3%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.372	0.140	40.1%	11.1%	21.3%	34.8%	2B	$2,700	1B/2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.354	0.220	36.9%	3.4%	15.9%	45.6%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.352	0.169	35.5%	8.3%	23.1%	34.4%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.322	0.182	36.4%	7.9%	23.6%	49.6%	C	$2,400	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.290	0.099	37.1%	4.1%	19.3%	37.6%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.349	0.190	37.8%	9.0%	23.4%	42.1%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Neil Walker, Miguel Andujar (GPP), Gleyber Torres (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Miguel Andujar (Cash), Gleyber Torres (Cash), Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay

Targeting a hitter against your starting pitcher can be a viable strategy in these small slates, especially when the pitcher in question is going to be highly owned. I expect CC Sabathia to be 80%+ owned in all formats, so he’s not going to hurt you if he gives up a couple of runs. With nobody targeting the Rays, they become intriguing tournament options even if you are rostering Sabathia as well. Tommy Pham and C.J. Cron are the top targets here, as they both bat from the right side and own an xwOBA of at least .360 against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.287	0.079	21.4%	7.0%	22.0%	54.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.476	0.182	53.0%	15.0%	20.3%	47.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.282	0.139	38.1%	11.8%	20.4%	41.3%	SS	$3,000	2B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.364	0.238	42.4%	8.1%	28.0%	40.4%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Brandon Lowe	LEFT	0.370	0.429	20.0%	8.7%	26.1%	33.3%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.274	0.093	42.2%	9.5%	36.9%	55.6%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.280	0.157	36.8%	12.4%	28.9%	48.2%	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.302	0.121	28.9%	3.8%	25.0%	28.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Jesus Sucre	RIGHT	0.259	0.074	35.4%	6.7%	13.3%	44.7%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.322	0.168	35.4%	9.2%	24.5%	43.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham (GPP), C.J. Cron (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Colorado
			Jake Arrieta							Antonio Senzatela
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-170							11.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.350	0.352	29.3%	1.30	19.5%	47.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.319	32.5%	0.49	16.8%	50.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.284	0.304	26.2%	0.83	19.2%	55.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	0.340	39.1%	1.29	18.3%	44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jake Arrieta
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			2 of 4	Salary Rank:			7 of 4	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	4.15	3.53	23.1%	7.8%	45.1%	29.4%	20.0%	92.1	8.7%
	2018	30	4.25	3.94	19.3%	8.0%	51.8%	27.5%	18.7%	93.0	7.8%
	L14	3	3.97	8.25	26.3%	10.5%	38.2%	31.4%	11.4%	93.4	10.9%

Arrieta has the skill set needed to pitch well in Coors Field. And the scary part is that if you are playing the early slate on a multi-pitcher site, you have to roster a pitcher from this game. On the season, Arrieta has a 4.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a ground ball rate of 52%. To have success here, you need to have a high strikeout rate and/or a high ground ball rate. Arrieta may have some trouble with the lefties in the Rockies’ lineup, but his numbers against righties are excellent and he should have the platoon advantage here.

Quick Breakdown: Even as a large underdog, I may side with Arrieta over Senzatela.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Antonio Senzatela
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			3 of 4	Salary Rank:			9 of 4	Salary Rank:
	2017	20	4.55	4.68	18.1%	8.3%	50.1%	29.4%	18.5%	94.3	6.9%
	2018	12	4.43	4.52	17.7%	7.3%	47.4%	36.3%	19.1%	93.7	8.4%
	L14	3	4.02	3.00	18.6%	5.7%	50.9%	28.3%	20.8%	93.4	14.0%

Senzatela hasn’t been great this season. In 12 starts, he owns a 4.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a ground ball rate of 47%. Unlike Jake Arrieta, Senzatela gives up a lot of hard contact (36%). After getting blanked by my main man German Marquez last night, I’m expecting a nice bounce-back effort from the Phillies’ offense. With the line in favor of the Rockies, Senzatela will likely have higher ownership than Arrieta.

Quick Breakdown: As mentioned earlier, I’ll take Arrieta over Senzatela and hope for the best.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

There aren’t many teams that get shutout in Coors Field, but that’s what happens when you go up against German Marquez. They have a much better matchup today against Antonio Senzatela, who is a low-strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .319 xwOBA to lefties and a .340 xwOBA to righties. The Phillies’ offense has been ice cold at the plate, but Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, and Wilson Ramos stand out as elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.310	0.127	22.4%	13.4%	22.8%	40.8%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.370	0.176	33.9%	17.7%	15.0%	38.3%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.301	0.182	26.0%	7.5%	19.9%	40.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.369	0.281	36.5%	11.1%	24.5%	28.6%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.343	0.162	38.9%	8.1%	19.2%	56.9%	C	$3,400	C	$4,800	N/A	N/A
6	Dylan Cozens	LEFT	0.268	0.158	66.7%	13.6%	59.1%	66.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.299	0.113	26.4%	5.1%	22.2%	37.7%	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.143	0.094	33.3%	5.7%	60.0%	22.2%	P	$7,000	P	$7,100	N/A	N/A
9	Roman Quinn	SWITCH	0.259	0.114	25.9%	7.8%	20.8%	53.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.296	0.156	34.4%	10.0%	29.3%	42.8%

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez (FD), Wilson Ramos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (DK), Wilson Ramos (FD), Odubel Herrera, Scott Kingery

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

My Coors Field fade was looking pretty good last night until the fifth or sixth inning when the Rockies couldn’t stop hitting doubles and home runs. That’s always a possibility in this ballpark. Today’s matchup against Jake Arrieta is easy to break down. He has held righties to a .304 xwOBA on a 55% ground ball rate, but has allowed a .352 xwOBA to lefties this season. Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl are clearly the two batters that stand out in this lineup. It wouldn’t surprise me to see another ten-run game from Colorado, but I’ll play the splits and only target the lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.358	0.222	37.5%	10.1%	19.4%	41.5%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.338	0.134	34.1%	7.2%	16.1%	51.5%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	David Dahl	LEFT	0.355	0.242	38.3%	8.0%	22.4%	41.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,600	N/A	N/A
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.342	0.195	40.5%	9.9%	20.2%	41.7%	3B	$4,600	3B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.343	0.221	42.7%	6.5%	27.6%	35.8%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,200	N/A	N/A
6	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.311	0.192	37.6%	9.0%	23.4%	45.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.303	0.158	32.0%	9.3%	25.6%	62.1%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.321	0.184	36.9%	12.6%	26.6%	40.5%	C	$3,100	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Antonio Senzatela	RIGHT	0.125	0.059	15.4%	0.0%	38.1%	77.8%	P	$6,600	P	$6,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.311	0.179	35.0%	8.1%	24.4%	48.7%

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Iannetta (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Houston								Baltimore
			Gerrit Cole							David Hess
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-210							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.235	0.245	29.0%	0.66	42.3%	35.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.355	0.361	33.3%	2.50	14.6%	38.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.321	33.7%	1.09	28.4%	36.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.359	0.347	30.4%	1.37	18.3%	29.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,400	Salary:			$12,800	Salary:		$24,700
	Salary Rank:			1 of 12	Salary Rank:			1 of 12	Salary Rank:		1 of 12
	2017	33	3.97	4.26	23.1%	6.5%	45.8%	31.3%	23.9%	96.0	9.5%
	2018	31	2.87	2.92	35.1%	8.1%	36.1%	31.8%	18.9%	96.5	14.1%
	L14	2	2.35	3.75	42.0%	8.0%	24.0%	36.0%	16.0%	96.5	20.4%

We kick off tonight’s six-game slate with the best pitcher available. Cole has had a breakout season for the Astros, posting a 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. The most amazing part is that he hasn’t slowed down at all. Over his last two starts, his k-rate is up to 42%. He draws a dream matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .305 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. Strikeouts should be plentiful for Cole tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is an elite play in all formats and one that I will be forcing into my lineups.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
David Hess
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:		$11,400
	Salary Rank:			7 of 12	Salary Rank:			10 of 12	Salary Rank:		7 of 12

	2018	18	5.07	5.14	16.4%	8.2%	34.0%	32.0%	18.7%	92.0	8.4%
	L14	2	4.28	4.82	27.3%	11.4%	23.1%	38.5%	15.4%	92.4	9.6%

Hess has made 18 starts this season, posting a 5.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a ground ball rate of 34%. To make matters worse, he has to face a talented Astros’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Granted, Houston doesn’t have anything to play for and may give a couple of their usual starters the night off. Even if that’s the case, I’d rather play the Astros’ backups than Hess.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hess in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros clinched their division and rolled out their Triple-A lineup yesterday against the Blue Jays. While that could happen again tonight, I expect most of their starters to be back in the lineup. If that’s the case, a full stack is firmly in play against David Hess, who is a low-strikeout pitcher that has has allowed a .345+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. With this ballpark favoring right-handed power, it sets up beautifully for George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.345	0.156	31.9%	10.4%	18.2%	50.2%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800	RF	$8,800
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.354	0.147	31.9%	9.3%	14.1%	47.9%	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,000	2B	$9,700
3	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.403	0.243	36.7%	14.0%	11.9%	35.1%	3B	$4,400	3B/SS	$5,000	3B	$9,600
4	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.340	0.167	37.1%	11.3%	23.8%	43.4%	SS	$3,300	OF/SS	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
5	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.283	0.123	29.9%	3.4%	10.7%	49.1%	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,300	1B	$9,800
6	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.342	0.278	33.9%	8.9%	16.4%	43.1%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,500
7	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.312	0.177	28.3%	10.1%	23.4%	45.3%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,100
8	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.306	0.105	31.2%	11.5%	16.1%	35.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,300
9	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.259	0.134	28.4%	3.8%	24.6%	40.2%	C	$2,200	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
	Team Averages		0.327	0.170	32.1%	9.2%	17.7%	43.3%

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Tyler White, Carlos Correa

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles managed to scrape together some runs last night against Chris Sale, but that’s not something we are accustomed to seeing. They have one of the least talented offenses in baseball and it shows in the numbers. It doesn’t help that they are facing Gerrit Cole, who is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He owns an elite strikeout rate (35%) and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.311	0.200	28.3%	7.0%	12.2%	50.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.288	0.116	29.3%	8.1%	26.1%	58.4%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,600
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.326	0.151	31.8%	4.5%	17.3%	43.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,800
4	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.376	0.197	38.2%	7.2%	23.8%	48.8%	OF	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,400
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.291	0.124	36.1%	8.0%	36.7%	38.5%	1B	$2,000	1B	$2,600	IF/OF	$4,500
6	DJ Stewart	LEFT	0.328	0.391	35.0%	7.4%	14.8%	30.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,900
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.306	0.130	32.8%	5.8%	24.6%	46.0%	SS	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,100	SS	$5,800
8	Steve Wilkerson	SWITCH	0.251	0.100	17.7%	13.0%	13.0%	47.1%	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,600	2B	$4,700
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.265	0.124	26.8%	3.4%	25.1%	44.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$4,800
	Team Averages		0.305	0.170	30.7%	7.2%	21.5%	45.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Atlanta								NY Mets
			Julio Teheran							Jason Vargas
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-105							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.366	38.9%	1.25	17.9%	36.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.331	0.359	34.9%	1.33	17.6%	40.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.268	0.308	34.7%	1.39	26.9%	40.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.376	0.336	34.3%	2.09	21.5%	39.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:			4 of 12	Salary Rank:			5 of 12	Salary Rank:		5 of 12
	2017	32	4.89	4.49	18.6%	8.9%	40.0%	30.4%	21.1%	91.4	9.4%
	2018	30	4.67	4.03	22.4%	11.7%	38.6%	36.8%	18.9%	89.8	11.4%
	L14	2	5.47	5.23	26.1%	19.6%	32.0%	20.0%	20.0%	90.6	17.5%

Teheran has made 30 starts this season, posting a 4.67 SIERA with a walk rate of 12% and a hard contact rate of 37%. He’s still a big name in the DFS industry, but his numbers are well below major league averages. For him to deserve consideration, he needs to face a right-handed heavy lineup. It doesn’t look like that will happen tonight, as the Mets are projected to have seven lefties in their lineup, four of which have an xwOBA of at least .325 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I know pitching is thin tonight, but I’ll take my chances elsewhere.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jason Vargas
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$5,400	Salary:		$11,100
	Salary Rank:			5 of 12	Salary Rank:			12 of 12	Salary Rank:		8 of 12
	2017	32	4.86	4.16	17.7%	7.7%	40.3%	32.7%	17.9%	85.6	9.9%
	2018	19	4.39	6.25	20.5%	7.9%	39.9%	34.5%	15.0%	86.5	11.0%
	L14	2	3.27	3.09	31.9%	8.5%	36.0%	25.9%	7.4%	85.9	13.6%

Vargas has a tougher matchup than Julio Teheran, but their numbers as a whole are pretty close and he’s clearly been in the better form of the two. In his last two starts, Vargas has a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. Dollar for dollar, you can easily make an argument to play him over Teheran. With that said, neither pitcher looks that appealing. The Braves’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .342 with a strikeout rate of 17% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Vargas is a decent tournament target, but I’m worried about this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Their matchup against Jason Vargas looks decent enough on paper, but this game is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of 8.0 runs. On the season, Vargas has allowed a .359 xwOBA to lefties and a .336 xwOBA to righties. Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Johan Camargo all grade out as solid plays tonight, as they each own a .355+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.394	0.300	41.5%	13.1%	22.3%	43.9%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,200	LF	$9,700
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.351	0.203	37.4%	3.7%	14.7%	44.4%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.395	0.222	37.3%	10.0%	19.9%	40.5%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,900	1B	$8,700
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.330	0.143	39.5%	8.3%	14.2%	44.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,700
5	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.356	0.226	38.1%	8.2%	19.2%	43.8%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
6	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.378	0.214	43.5%	7.6%	16.3%	36.2%	C	$2,400	C	$4,200	C	$8,300
7	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.297	0.072	31.6%	6.4%	14.0%	52.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,500
8	Charlie Culberson	RIGHT	0.287	0.184	31.3%	5.5%	21.8%	56.4%	3B	$2,700	3B/OF	$4,200	SS	$8,200
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.292	0.000	16.7%	4.8%	9.5%	69.2%	P	$8,000	P	$8,500	P	$16,100
	Team Averages		0.342	0.174	35.2%	7.5%	16.9%	48.0%

Elite Plays – Johan Camargo

Secondary Plays – Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets

The book on Julio Teheran is a short one and it’s easy to read to. You avoid right-handed hitters against him, as he has held righties to a .308 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate. His numbers take a huge hit when facing a batter from the left side of the plate — .366 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Nimmo all bat from the left side and all boast a .325+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.287	0.123	26.7%	4.7%	19.0%	49.8%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,600
2	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.325	0.139	28.7%	5.4%	10.8%	37.1%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,500
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.346	0.190	36.5%	15.0%	22.7%	40.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,200
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.376	0.155	34.2%	12.7%	19.0%	29.2%	OF	$2,700	1B/OF	$3,700	RF	$7,300
5	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.376	0.250	36.4%	15.9%	23.5%	41.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,200
6	Dominic Smith	LEFT	0.264	0.188	33.3%	2.6%	34.5%	34.7%	1B	$2,100	1B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,600
7	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.338	0.207	43.6%	9.1%	22.3%	33.9%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.315	0.159	35.1%	10.1%	22.6%	46.9%	C	$2,000	C	$3,200	C	$6,700
9	Jason Vargas	LEFT	0.151	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%	P	$7,400	P	$5,400	P	$11,100
	Team Averages		0.309	0.157	32.4%	8.4%	22.2%	40.4%

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Plays – Jeff McNeil, Domonic Smith

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Chicago Cubs
			Trevor Williams							Jon Lester
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-155							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.277	0.326	26.8%	0.89	12.9%	40.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.374	0.380	34.9%	1.78	21.7%	39.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.319	31.9%	0.74	23.0%	40.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.351	31.6%	1.09	19.3%	36.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,600	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:		$17,900
	Salary Rank:			2 of 12	Salary Rank:			3 of 12	Salary Rank:		3 of 12
	2017	25	4.63	4.07	18.2%	8.1%	48.0%	28.9%	21.8%	92.1	8.4%
	2018	30	4.66	3.04	18.0%	7.7%	40.2%	29.3%	20.4%	90.4	7.7%
	L14	3	2.87	2.12	30.8%	4.6%	38.5%	19.1%	23.8%	90.6	8.6%

Williams has found his groove in the month of September, posting a SIERA under 3.00 with a strikeout rate of 26%. He’s scored at least 22 DK points in four of his last five starts, but will have that recent form tested tonight against the Cubs. Once again, the wind is blowing out to center field (around 10 MPH) and Chicago’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .346 with an ISO of .187 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even though his form is enticing, this is a tough spot for Williams.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:			$9,800	Salary:		$18,500
	Salary Rank:			3 of 12	Salary Rank:			2 of 12	Salary Rank:		2 of 12
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%	91.1	11.0%
	2018	31	4.51	3.43	19.8%	8.2%	37.1%	32.3%	17.9%	91.0	8.6%
	L14	3	3.15	2.55	28.2%	5.6%	42.6%	31.9%	27.7%	91.0	10.7%

Lester has gone from being a pitcher that we thought would regress to a pitcher that was unlucky to a pitcher that has been good over the last month of play. In his last three starts, he has a 3.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. With the Cubs in must-win mode, they are one of the few teams that truly has something to play for. Even though the wind is blowing out, Lester is arguably the second best pitching option of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: It’s a night to pay up for pitching, so if you can find a way to pair Lester with Cole, I highly recommend it.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates could be a sneaky offense to target tonight. Everyone is siding with Jon Lester here (myself included), even though the wind is blowing out to center and even though this game has a total of 9.5 runs. At the very least, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, and Jose Osuna are worth a look as leverage plays in tournaments. They all bat from the right side and all boast a .350+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.327	0.109	39.5%	5.2%	20.7%	46.5%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,400
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.355	0.183	35.3%	6.3%	21.0%	54.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
3	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.303	0.157	33.0%	11.0%	22.1%	42.3%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,700
4	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.360	0.122	32.7%	17.2%	21.5%	36.4%	C	$3,200	C	$3,700	C	$7,500
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.288	0.089	23.3%	3.4%	19.3%	46.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,200
6	Jose Osuna	RIGHT	0.352	0.222	38.9%	4.2%	20.8%	41.7%	OF	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,100	IF/OF	$5,800
7	Pablo Reyes	RIGHT	0.451	0.273	20.0%	21.4%	7.1%	40.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,900	2B	$7,600
8	Kevin Newman	RIGHT	0.355	0.143	20.0%	12.5%	25.0%	40.0%	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.119	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	14.3%	100.0%	P	$9,600	P	$9,300	P	$17,900
	Team Averages		0.323	0.144	27.0%	9.0%	19.1%	49.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Jose Osuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of the highest implied totals on the board, even though they are facing a pitcher in great form. The reasoning behind the high total is pretty simple — the Cubs have a talented offense, the wind is blowing out to center, and this is a team with plenty of motivation. On the season, Trevor Williams has allowed a .326 xwOBA to left-handed hitters with a k-rate of only 13%. Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rizzo are my favorite targets here, but Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Ian Happ are all viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.382	0.203	29.7%	5.9%	10.1%	32.2%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,300
2	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.360	0.159	34.7%	12.2%	12.8%	47.0%	OF	$3,000	2B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,200
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.402	0.212	34.9%	12.3%	10.0%	36.9%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,400
4	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.333	0.278	36.4%	3.6%	27.5%	46.0%	SS	$3,900	2B/SS	$5,200	2B	$9,900
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.375	0.274	42.3%	15.5%	26.2%	41.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,200
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.296	0.127	28.2%	8.1%	20.5%	54.8%	C	$2,600	C	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
7	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.351	0.206	41.7%	16.4%	35.8%	37.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
8	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.266	0.077	21.2%	0.0%	26.7%	70.4%	P	$9,300	P	$9,800	P	$18,500
9	David Bote	RIGHT	0.348	0.145	35.6%	7.4%	27.9%	56.3%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.346	0.187	33.9%	9.0%	21.9%	47.0%

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 27th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Philadelphia at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Houston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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