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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-07 20:10:07

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Washington
atlantamlb Sean Newcomb washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-210 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.349 38.2% 2.05 25.8% 49.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 0.251 28.0% 0.90 32.9% 36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.293 31.7% 0.65 21.7% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.242 0.286 34.8% 0.96 36.6% 36.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Newcomb
sean-newcomb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $10,100 Salary: $20,300
Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 19 4.71 4.32 23.7% 12.5% 43.8% 27.0% 17.5% 93.7 11.2%
2018 21 4.57 3.23 22.5% 11.6% 45.9% 32.8% 21.7% 92.9 9.7%
L14 2 4.06 1.23 25.0% 9.6% 44.1% 41.2% 8.8% 93.2 8.4%

Happy Tuesday everyone. We start tonight’s 14-game slate with the Braves and Nationals, which will be the second game of a double-header. Newcomb may have a 3.23 ERA on the season, but his peripheral stats suggest some regression moving forward. In 21 starts, he has a 4.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 12%. Southpaws typically see a boost against a left-handed heavy Nationals’ offense, but not Newcomb, as he owns some serious reverse splits (.349 xwOBA allowed to lefties this season).

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Newcomb in all formats.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,900 Salary: $13,900 Salary: $26,900
Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 2.98 2.51 34.4% 7.1% 36.5% 26.5% 19.5% 94.1 15.5%
2018 23 2.72 2.33 34.7% 6.3% 36.2% 31.1% 24.3% 94.3 16.5%
L14 3 2.47 1.80 35.4% 5.1% 41.3% 30.4% 28.3% 94.6 15.8%

The man with different colored eyes aka Mad Max is back on the mound tonight to add another impressive start to his resume. In 23 outings this season, he has a 2.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. Even more impressive is his soft contact rate of 24%. Pitchers that throw fastballs in the mid to high-90s typically have a high hard contact rate, but not Scherzer. While the Braves have a decent offense, they are no match for one of the best pitchers in baseball. Mad Max is the top pitcher of the slate when you take salaries out of the equation.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is expensive, but he’s still an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman is one of the best hitters in baseball and he tends to have good BvP numbers against some of the elite pitchers. While his numbers aren’t great against Max Scherzer, he does have two home runs off of him in 35 career plate appearances. Is that enough to justify playing him in a 14-game slate? Not in my book. The rest of the Braves are easy fades, as Scherzer owns an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.373 0.248 45.1% 6.8% 29.6% 40.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 LF $7,400
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.318 0.226 35.9% 4.3% 17.5% 36.0% 2B $4,000 2B $4,600 2B $7,700
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.408 0.185 45.0% 13.4% 16.9% 37.6% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 1B $7,400
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.398 0.167 42.3% 10.4% 8.8% 42.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 RF $7,600
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.322 0.146 35.1% 5.7% 8.6% 32.7% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $5,900
6 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.318 0.160 38.5% 13.2% 20.5% 51.0% 3B $3,200 3B/SS $4,100 3B $6,700
7 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.291 0.121 27.1% 7.7% 12.6% 45.6% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 CF $6,600
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.280 0.142 33.2% 6.7% 22.6% 44.4% SS $2,700 SS $3,200 SS $5,500
9 Sean Newcomb LEFT 0.050 0.033 14.3% 0.0% 57.1% 88.9% P $7,600 P $10,100 P $20,300
Team Averages 0.306 0.159 35.2% 7.6% 21.6% 46.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are large favorites tonight against Sean Newcomb, but their implied run total isn’t anything to write home about. I wouldn’t even text or email home about it if I’m being honest. Their matchup against Sean Newcomb is a bit tricky, as he has reverse splits. On the season, he has held righties to a .293 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate, but has allowed a .349 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to lefties. The two lefties that have good numbers against southpaws in this lineup are Bryce Harper (.393 xwOBA) and Juan Soto (.376 xwOBA). Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman have all mashed lefties throughout their respective careers, but are secondary options in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.373 0.131 34.4% 11.6% 11.6% 40.7% SS $3,900 SS $5,200 IF/OF $9,100
2 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.477 0.296 48.4% 8.9% 20.0% 20.3% 3B $3,800 3B $4,700 3B $8,400
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.393 0.220 37.2% 18.7% 23.7% 44.9% OF $4,500 OF $5,100 RF $8,900
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.375 0.211 39.4% 13.6% 11.4% 45.5% 1B $3,100 1B $4,400 1B $7,700
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.376 0.304 36.4% 12.5% 18.8% 58.1% OF $3,900 OF $5,000 LF $9,400
6 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.326 0.038 12.5% 6.9% 10.3% 41.7% 2B $3,400 1B/2B $4,200 2B $7,500
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.272 0.152 40.4% 7.0% 36.0% 51.8% OF $2,500 OF $4,100 CF $7,400
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.419 0.136 42.9% 21.4% 28.6% 35.7% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $5,400
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.363 0.000 11.1% 9.1% 9.1% 50.0% P $11,900 P $13,900 P $26,900
Team Averages 0.375 0.165 33.6% 12.2% 18.8% 43.2%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash), Juan Soto (Cash), Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz torontomlb Marcus Stroman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-105 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.338 0.353 33.3% 0.00 11.4% 37.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.363 38.1% 0.66 16.7% 60.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.406 0.379 39.2% 2.13 21.2% 38.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.314 33.1% 1.03 20.0% 61.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 4.31 3.32 23.5% 9.3% 43.2% 32.5% 20.3% 91.3 9.9%
2018 10 5.08 6.56 19.6% 12.3% 38.4% 38.1% 18.4% 88.7 7.3%
L14 2 5.72 5.59 15.2% 13.0% 38.7% 48.4% 22.6% 88.3 6.5%

Pomeranz has struggled all season. He started the year on the DL and hasn’t been able to find any sort of a rhythm ever since. In ten starts, he has a 5.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 12%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact and he’s pitching on the road against a right-handed heavy offense in a home run-friendly ballpark. I have yet to say anything positive about Pomeranz, so you can imagine how I view him as a play tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Pomeranz in all formats.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,500
Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 3.85 3.09 19.7% 7.4% 62.1% 31.4% 20.4% 93.3 10.0%
2018 15 3.99 5.63 18.3% 8.1% 61.0% 35.7% 20.6% 92.4 9.5%
L14 3 3.47 4.82 20.0% 5.0% 59.3% 18.6% 23.7% 92.4 10.4%

Stroman has always had an elite ground ball rate, which has attracted many DFS players to him over the years. It’s currently sitting at 61%, which is one of the highest marks that you will find in baseball. Unfortunately, it’s not accompanied by a high strikeout rate, or even an average one. At 18%, his k-rate is nearly 4% lower than the major league average this season. He needs a good matchup to deserve consideration in DFS and he doesn’t have one tonight against the Red Sox. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .376 with a strikeout rate of only 18%.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Stroman in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Even though I don’t have any interest in Marcus Stroman, I’m not sure that I want to stack the Red Sox. While he doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, a 61% ground ball rate is always intimidating. It could lead to a lot of singles for Boston, but that doesn’t exactly translate into GPP-winning fantasy production. Stroman has struggled a bit against lefties, allowing a .363 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate this season. Each of the first five batters in this lineup are fine plays, but none really stand out as core targets in this 14-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.468 0.279 45.9% 10.9% 12.8% 33.5% OF $4,800 OF $5,900 RF $11,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.410 0.213 30.4% 13.2% 13.8% 36.9% OF $4,200 OF $5,400 LF $10,300
3 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.415 0.222 35.7% 10.8% 19.2% 41.3% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.464 0.355 47.4% 10.1% 22.0% 44.8% OF $4,900 OF $5,400 RF $10,300
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.380 0.262 38.4% 5.6% 17.9% 47.5% SS $3,300 SS $4,200 SS $8,400
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.267 0.125 24.8% 2.6% 15.3% 49.5% 3B $2,500 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,300
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.329 0.102 28.7% 8.5% 14.4% 53.3% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,300
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.266 0.114 29.9% 3.5% 25.5% 44.1% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.381 0.174 40.4% 10.2% 23.6% 40.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
Team Averages 0.376 0.205 35.7% 8.4% 18.3% 43.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays are one of my favorite stacking options tonight, as they square off against the struggling Drew Pomeranz. In addition to having a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, he has allowed a .353 xwOBA to lefties and a .379 xwOBA to righties (with a HR/9 of 2.13). The Blue Jays will load up on right-handed power tonight. The best part is that the full stack is more affordable than most of the teams near the top of the implied run total list tonight. Randal Grichuk, Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales, Teoscar Hernandez, and Russell Martin all bat from the right side and all boast a .330+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.333 0.146 27.9% 6.7% 24.4% 41.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 RF $8,300
2 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.364 0.233 25.0% 1.6% 13.1% 44.2% 2B $2,400 2B $3,800 2B $7,700
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.295 0.142 24.2% 9.1% 23.1% 49.5% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.364 0.133 37.7% 8.1% 21.6% 45.5% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,500
5 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.374 0.301 33.3% 7.4% 28.7% 37.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 LF $8,300
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.336 0.117 32.6% 16.4% 23.3% 53.5% C $2,500 C $3,800 C $7,700
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.312 0.189 28.3% 5.1% 17.7% 40.0% SS $3,400 SS $4,000 SS $7,700
8 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.349 0.038 22.2% 6.9% 27.6% 38.9% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $3,300 3B $6,300
9 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.266 0.151 32.6% 3.5% 14.2% 38.5% OF $2,400 OF $4,100 CF $8,500
Team Averages 0.333 0.161 29.3% 7.2% 21.5% 43.1%

Elite Plays – Randal Grichuk, Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez, Russell Martin (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Tampa Bay
baltimoremlb Alex Cobb tampabaymlb Tyler Glasnow
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -160 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.376 0.360 35.6% 1.34 18.0% 41.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.321 19.4% 1.44 26.1% 58.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.346 31.7% 1.61 12.5% 57.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.270 0.283 35.1% 0.53 34.1% 55.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank: 26 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 4.48 3.66 17.3% 5.9% 47.8% 36.9% 14.9% 91.7 6.7%
2018 20 4.56 5.83 15.2% 5.9% 50.0% 33.5% 20.0% 91.9 7.3%
L14 3 4.25 2.65 16.4% 5.5% 51.8% 33.3% 24.6% 91.5 8.1%

Cobb has been an easy fade for most of the season. In his 20 starts, he has a 4.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. While he has good control and a high ground ball rate, that’s not enough to warrant consideration in DFS. He’ll get a crack at revenge tonight, as he’ll face his former team in Tampa Bay. While this is a good matchup on paper, he comes into the game as a large underdog and he brings very little upside to the table.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cobb in all formats.

Tyler Glasnow
tyler-glasnow-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 5.62 7.69 18.4% 14.4% 43.2% 31.5% 20.2% 94.6 8.3%
2018 1 3.54 4.27 30.3% 13.8% 56.8% 27.7% 12.8% 96.6 11.6%
L14 1 4.60 1.29 25.9% 18.5% 73.3% 33.3% 13.3% 97.0 7.7%

Glasnow was a top pitching prospect that could never really gain any momentum in Pittsburgh. The Rays are hoping that they can continue doing what they do best — find diamonds in the rough. In his first start with his new team, Glasnow racked up five strikeouts in three innings of work against the Angels. He threw 48 pitches in that start, so you have to think he’ll throw a few more if things are going well tonight against the Orioles. On paper, this is arguably the best matchup of the slate. Baltimore’s projected lineup has a .311 xwOBA and a 26% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. I’m tempted to play Glasnow at $6,900 on DraftKings, but everything would have to play out perfectly for him to be eligible for the win.

Quick Breakdown: I have interest in Glasnow, but will likely wait another start to see if the Rays let him pitch deeper into this game.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are not an offense that I like to trust in DFS. Even when they were squaring off against bad pitchers in Texas, they were having trouble scoring runs. They strikeout at a high rate and don’t have much power to speak of in their lineup. While Tyler Glasnow tends to struggle with finding the strike zone, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season. The two plays that intrigue me here are Jonathan Villar and Tim Beckham. They are both dirt cheap and have stolen base upside against Glasnow, who has allowed 33 stolen bases in 18 career starts and 39 relief appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.263 0.083 30.3% 6.4% 28.1% 63.9% 2B $2,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.285 0.077 28.5% 6.0% 26.1% 47.5% SS $3,100 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,500
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.329 0.168 33.2% 4.0% 17.7% 43.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.349 0.191 40.9% 7.2% 25.2% 38.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 DH $7,300
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.306 0.132 36.6% 9.0% 34.8% 41.1% 1B $2,700 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,400
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.364 0.173 34.5% 8.5% 24.1% 49.7% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,700
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.323 0.163 46.0% 3.9% 23.5% 37.8% 3B $2,300 3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,300
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.309 0.145 30.3% 12.3% 25.2% 45.8% OF $2,300 3B/OF $3,400 2B $6,400
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.267 0.173 26.9% 3.4% 28.4% 44.7% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,700
Team Averages 0.311 0.145 34.1% 6.7% 25.9% 45.8%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar (GPP), Tim Beckham (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar (Cash), Tim Beckham (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays don’t have a lot of firepower in their lineup and are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Even though they draw one of the best matchups of the slate, we shouldn’t be too excited about targeting them in a 14-game slate. On the season, Alex Cobb has allowed a .360 xwOBA to lefties and a .346 xwOBA to righties, although his ground ball rate is 16% lower when facing a batter from the left side of the plate. Mallex Smith (one of the fastest players in baseball), Jake Bauers, and Joey Wendle are all viable tournament plays, but this isn’t a spot to stack Tampa Bay.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.289 0.129 30.0% 8.9% 18.6% 45.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 CF $9,400
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.311 0.087 28.5% 5.6% 15.1% 52.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,800 3B $7,300
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.376 0.261 45.5% 14.0% 24.4% 40.4% 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,400 1B $8,400
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.355 0.237 38.7% 5.6% 24.6% 42.7% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.320 0.117 36.9% 6.0% 19.9% 47.0% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $4,000 2B $7,700
6 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.274 0.113 33.3% 8.7% 25.5% 51.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
7 Brandon Lowe LEFT 2B $2,000 OF $3,000 2B $5,700
8 Michael Perez LEFT 0.383 0.063 41.7% 0.0% 25.0% 33.3% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $5,700
9 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.262 0.112 25.8% 7.2% 28.9% 42.6% SS $2,400 2B/SS $3,500 SS $6,300
Team Averages 0.321 0.140 35.1% 7.0% 22.8% 44.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith, Jake Bauers, Joey Wendle

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Cincinnati NY Mets
cincinnatimlb Sal Romano nymetsmlb Jason Vargas
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-107 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.385 0.396 41.9% 1.76 14.2% 40.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.395 0.399 33.3% 2.13 15.0% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.316 31.0% 1.52 17.8% 48.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.418 0.356 37.9% 2.36 20.3% 35.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 16 4.72 4.45 19.0% 9.6% 50.4% 32.6% 21.5% 95.3 8.7%
2018 21 4.86 5.12 16.1% 8.2% 44.3% 36.2% 19.5% 94.2 7.9%
L14 2 4.52 4.50 15.4% 1.9% 35.7% 32.6% 16.3% 94.3 12.2%

Romano is just out there to eat up innings for the Reds. In 21 starts this season, he has a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and has one of the lowest swinging strike rates of any pitcher on the schedule tonight. There isn’t a lot to love here, even though a matchup against the Mets is enticing. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .299 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Despite the favorable matchup and ballpark, Romano can be avoided in all formats.

Jason Vargas
jason-vargas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,400
Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 4.86 4.16 17.7% 7.7% 40.3% 32.7% 17.9% 85.6 9.9%
2018 11 4.77 8.23 18.8% 9.0% 35.1% 36.7% 13.9% 86.8 10.8%
L14 2 4.92 6.75 23.3% 14.0% 29.6% 33.3% 7.4% 85.9 11.9%

There are few pitchers with worse numbers than Sal Romano in this slate, but Vargas is one of them. In his 11 starts this season, he owns a 8.23 ERA (4.77 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 19%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. I typically want to see some semblance of form before targeting a pitcher, but I might make an exception for Vargas tonight. Look at how bad the Reds’ lineup fares against left-handed pitching. As a whole, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .271 with a strikeout rate of 27% against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: At a price of $4,500 on DraftKings, I’ll have a few shares of Vargas tonight in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are banged up and they are out of the playoff race in the National League. We are going to see some ugly baseball from them the rest of the way. While a matchup against Jason Vargas is intriguing, there is really only one hitter on my radar from the Reds. Eugenio Suarez currently owns a .483 xwOBA, a .333 ISO, and a 56% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. Those rival anyone’s numbers in baseball against southpaws. I honestly think this is a spot where you can play both Suarez and Vargas and they can both return value.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.281 0.076 24.8% 3.2% 5.6% 41.3% SS $2,700 SS $4,000 SS $7,200
2 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.264 0.250 33.3% 7.7% 23.1% 33.3% OF $2,300 OF $4,100 RF $8,200
3 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.483 0.333 56.3% 15.7% 17.6% 38.0% 3B $3,900 3B $5,300 3B $9,600
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.310 0.179 44.0% 4.0% 23.2% 37.1% 2B $3,200 2B $4,300 2B $8,000
5 Brandon Dixon RIGHT 0.174 0.000 27.3% 5.6% 33.3% 60.0% 2B $2,100 1B/2B $2,900 2B $5,900
6 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.423 0.333 46.2% 15.8% 10.5% 46.2% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,700
7 Dilson Herrera RIGHT 0.224 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 2B $2,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,700
8 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.023 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 63.6% 100.0% P $6,000 P $5,600 P $10,900
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.254 0.112 27.6% 8.2% 32.0% 26.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,600 CF $7,300
Team Averages 0.271 0.143 28.8% 6.7% 26.9% 42.5%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Curt Casali (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Sal Romano makes my job a little easier. He has been tough on right-handed hitters this season (.316 xwOBA on a 48% ground ball rate), but has allowed a .396 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. He has a low strikeout rate and average command, so there is some upside for the Mets’ offense tonight. Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, and Brandon Nimmo all bat from the left side and have shown upside against right-handed pitching. Amed Rosario is also viable, assuming he bats leadoff again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.276 0.117 26.5% 5.2% 19.1% 50.8% SS $2,600 SS $3,000 SS $5,700
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.317 0.158 20.0% 12.0% 20.0% 38.5% 2B $2,700 2B $3,400 2B $6,900
3 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.318 0.234 37.4% 7.5% 9.1% 35.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 3B $7,400
4 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.349 0.164 36.8% 16.8% 22.0% 36.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.355 0.178 45.5% 10.0% 22.0% 35.8% 3B $2,500 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
6 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.365 0.244 35.9% 13.3% 27.3% 34.7% OF $3,300 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.255 0.113 30.4% 9.0% 39.3% 43.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,300
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.315 0.174 32.0% 6.0% 18.5% 32.0% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,800
9 Jason Vargas LEFT 0.145 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 28.6% 57.1% P $5,600 P $4,500 P $9,400
Team Averages 0.299 0.154 31.6% 8.9% 22.9% 40.5%

Elite Plays – Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo (Cash), Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
minnesotamlb Adalberto Mejia clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-240 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.135 0.260 18.2% 0.00 15.4% 36.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.295 37.8% 1.27 28.8% 44.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.391 25.0% 0.68 13.1% 34.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 0.303 40.1% 0.95 26.9% 42.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adalberto Mejia
adalberto-mejia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,100
Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 21 4.95 4.50 19.2% 9.9% 39.3% 31.7% 19.1% 92.5 10.6%
2018 3 5.59 2.60 13.5% 10.8% 35.2% 23.6% 29.1% 92.5 9.0%
L14 2 4.97 0.68 16.7% 9.3% 35.9% 25.6% 25.6% 92.4 9.1%

Mejia has a 2.60 ERA through his first three starts of the season, but his peripheral stats don’t support it. He currently owns a 5.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14%. He’s done a great job of inducing soft and medium contact, but we need to see a boost in his strikeout rate before we start taking him seriously. He draws one of the worst matchups of the slate, as he squares off against the Indians in Cleveland.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mejia in all formats.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $11,500 Salary: $22,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4% 94.3 13.4%
2018 20 3.22 3.66 27.8% 5.2% 43.6% 39.0% 14.6% 93.5 14.1%
L14 3 2.35 1.33 34.2% 4.0% 53.2% 55.3% 19.2% 94.2 17.7%

Carrasco has had some good outings at home this season, but there is no denying the fact that he’s a better pitcher on the road. In each of the last four seasons, he’s had significantly better numbers away from home. While I don’t automatically fade him when he’s pitching in Cleveland, I do manually bump down his projection. While he has a good track record against the Twins, their projected lineup actually owns an average xwOBA of .338 with a 38% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. If I’m paying up at pitcher, I’d rather go all the way up to Max Scherzer or Zack Greinke.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t mind the Carrasco play, I just prefer other options tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are playing on the road and draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. Even though their offense has some upside against right-handed pitching, I will wait for a better matchup and potentially a smaller slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Carlos Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. If you want to play the BvP angle, Joe Mauer is 14-for-35 with six extra-base hits off of Carrasco in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.411 0.102 43.7% 11.7% 11.3% 48.7% 1B $2,500 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.341 0.229 38.4% 7.0% 17.5% 33.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 LF $9,400
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.317 0.125 27.1% 15.6% 20.8% 38.3% SS $2,700 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.379 0.208 42.1% 10.6% 20.1% 28.6% 1B $2,700 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
5 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.290 0.223 48.0% 7.8% 40.4% 42.5% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,500 IF/OF $6,400
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.328 0.169 39.1% 12.0% 13.7% 39.5% OF $2,700 OF $4,200 RF $8,500
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.289 0.091 29.6% 9.0% 18.9% 44.3% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,900
8 Jake Cave LEFT 0.359 0.178 32.4% 4.2% 25.0% 46.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,700
9 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.328 0.170 42.3% 8.9% 24.1% 41.7% C $2,100 C $3,500 C $6,700
Team Averages 0.338 0.166 38.1% 9.6% 21.3% 40.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians were one of the highest scoring offenses of the slate last night, which has been commonplace this season. Their lineup is so loaded and it doesn’t matter if they are facing a left or right-handed pitcher. They draw a favorable matchup against Adalberto Mejia, who hasn’t been able to translate his minor league success up to the next level. The sample size is small (three starts), but he has allowed a .391 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. The usual suspects from Cleveland are in play tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.419 0.217 42.6% 11.4% 11.4% 46.0% SS $4,700 SS $5,800 SS $10,200
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.315 0.110 25.6% 4.7% 9.4% 53.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 LF $8,500
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.366 0.228 41.2% 5.7% 9.8% 40.6% 3B $5,300 3B $6,100 IF/OF $10,900
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.382 0.161 47.0% 16.3% 20.2% 27.3% 1B $3,800 1B $4,500 1B $9,100
5 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.390 0.284 36.1% 11.2% 14.6% 36.1% OF $2,300 OF $4,100 RF $8,400
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.352 0.179 34.4% 6.6% 23.1% 34.4% 1B $3,000 1B $4,300 1B $8,200
7 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.317 0.087 38.9% 4.2% 20.8% 50.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,900 LF $7,700
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.386 0.244 48.2% 9.1% 27.3% 27.8% C $2,600 C $4,100 C $8,200
9 Erik Gonzalez RIGHT 0.314 0.143 41.9% 4.5% 25.0% 48.4% 2B $2,200 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,700
Team Averages 0.360 0.184 39.5% 8.2% 18.0% 40.4%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious