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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-14 02:20:36

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Colorado Pittsburgh
coloradomlb Tyler Chatwood pittsburghmlb Gerrit Cole
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-117 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.322 27.6% 11.8% 18.5% 57.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.339 38.8% 5.9% 21.5% 40.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.310 30.6% 9.8% 18.1% 58.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.312 25.5% 6.9% 18.0% 50.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Chatwood
tyler-chatwood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 27 4.62 3.87 17.5% 10.5% 57.2% 29.5% 19.0%
2017 13 4.47 4.37 20.1% 11.6% 58.4% 28.1% 23.5%

Chatwood has pitched well on the road in the last couple of seasons. A 20% strikeout rate and a 58% ground ball rate are appealing from a DFS point of view, because he can limit the damage against him and still strikeout a healthy number of batters along the way. He comes into tonight’s game as an underdog, but the over/under of 9.0 runs seems a bit high. The Pirates are ranked 22nd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and Chatwood gets to face them in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park.

Quick Breakdown: I wish Chatwood was cheaper, but he is still a viable tournament option tonight.

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 21 4.24 3.88 19.4% 7.1% 45.6% 30.1% 21.3%
2017 13 4.05 4.83 20.3% 5.2% 45.7% 34.7% 19.4%

Cole is a tough pitcher to peg when it comes to fantasy production. After a nice start to the season, he has allowed 23 earned runs over his last four starts. He is one of those pitchers that can’t seem to bounce back after a break or two doesn’t go his way. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Rockies, who have been red-hot at the plate over the last few weeks (even on the road). If you strip away the name and look solely at his statistics and recent form, Cole becomes an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is extremely cheap on DraftKings ($6,800), but I’m not taking the bait.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies draw a decent matchup against Gerrit Cole, who allows a lot of hard contact and is one of the worst pitchers in baseball at holding runners. We should give a big edge to the left-handed hitters in this lineup, as Cole has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to batters from that side of the plate. We shouldn’t go overboard on the Rockies, but Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez both stand out as borderline elite plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.413 0.371 0.283 38.9% 7.3% 18.9% 31.3% OF $4,900 OF $5,500 CF $10,800
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.357 0.369 0.112 32.0% 9.1% 13.0% 53.8% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.374 0.345 0.264 36.9% 8.2% 14.9% 36.0% 3B $3,900 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.402 0.332 0.244 31.5% 9.4% 25.1% 39.5% 1B $4,100 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
5 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.351 0.346 0.185 33.4% 10.3% 18.1% 44.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.318 0.297 0.146 30.5% 6.0% 25.1% 56.6% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,100 LF $8,100
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.336 0.323 0.240 36.4% 8.4% 32.0% 29.3% SS $3,300 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.325 0.291 0.124 21.2% 11.7% 20.1% 44.3% C $2,900 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.252 0.191 0.065 10.5% 3.8% 24.5% 51.5% P $8,000 P $7,700 P $15,300

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

So much of fantasy baseball is about capturing upside, both with individual hitters and with stacks. When teams face an elite ground ball pitcher with a soft contact rate of 24%, their upside is limited. Sure, they may be able to string together a bunch of singles against Tyler Chatwood, but that’s not the type of upside that we are looking for in tournaments. In the last two seasons combined, Chatwood has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Vegas is usually correct in these situations, but the Pirates’ implied run total seems way too high.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.331 0.339 0.134 32.1% 8.7% 14.2% 46.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.311 0.283 0.108 28.5% 4.2% 14.6% 42.5% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $4,100 2B $8,100
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.330 0.344 0.189 33.5% 9.2% 16.6% 39.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.319 0.323 0.135 32.5% 8.9% 26.8% 58.4% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.346 0.349 0.187 33.8% 12.3% 17.5% 50.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.316 0.331 0.156 35.1% 9.5% 21.4% 37.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
7 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.432 0.305 0.185 36.4% 12.9% 16.1% 50.0% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.308 0.298 0.112 25.2% 8.3% 14.4% 49.0% SS $3,100 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Gerrit Cole RIGHT 0.131 0.129 0.000 6.7% 0.0% 41.2% 79.2% P $8,000 P $6,800 P $13,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Washington
atlantamlb R.A. Dickey washingtonmlb Joe Ross
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-200 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.341 28.2% 10.1% 14.8% 41.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.370 0.348 35.0% 8.3% 19.7% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.346 30.6% 8.6% 16.6% 47.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.291 28.1% 3.7% 23.8% 44.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey
r-a-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.81 4.46 17.3% 8.7% 42.1% 30.0% 22.7%
2017 12 5.52 4.73 12.4% 10.6% 51.1% 28.4% 25.5%

Dickey has a low strikeout rate and bad command, which are two qualities that we are not looking for from our pitchers in DFS. On the season, he has a 5.52 SIERA, which isn’t helping his case. When you throw in a matchup against the Nationals on the road, he becomes one of the easiest fades on the board tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Dickey in all formats.

Joe Ross
joseph-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.06 3.43 20.8% 6.5% 42.6% 29.5% 16.3%
2017 7 3.56 6.16 24.6% 4.2% 39.1% 36.4% 23.7%

Ross is coming off of a tremendous outing against the Orioles where he struck out 12 batters in over seven innings of work. His price hasn’t come up much and he draws another decent matchup tonight against the Braves. We saw Atlanta knock Stephen Strasburg around a bit last night, but Ross should have the platoon advantage in his favor, as the Braves will likely only have four left-handed hitters in their lineup. That’s great news for Ross, who has held righties to a .291 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate in the last two seasons. It’s going to be hot tonight in Washington, but Ross is still worth a look as an SP2 in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: I like Ross’s chances to pick up a win here and hopefully some strikeouts along the way.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have managed to survive without Freddie Freeman in their lineup thanks to the pickup of Matt Adams and everyone else picking up the slack offensively. They scored 11 runs against the Nationals last night and have a fairly high implied run total again tonight. I’m more on the Joe Ross side of this matchup myself, but you can give a hard look to the left-handed hitters in this lineup. In the last two seasons, Ross has allowed a .348 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.316 0.297 0.104 26.4% 8.5% 13.6% 42.1% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.325 0.309 0.126 28.3% 3.3% 12.3% 47.6% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
3 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.339 0.359 0.137 33.8% 11.5% 16.4% 42.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.340 0.352 0.217 36.4% 5.0% 23.8% 40.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.345 0.339 0.236 37.8% 8.1% 25.6% 33.6% 1B $2,700 1B/OF $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.296 0.310 0.129 29.2% 6.3% 12.0% 41.7% C $2,600 C $2,500 C $4,800
7 Rio Ruiz LEFT 0.257 0.315 0.103 34.7% 9.2% 25.0% 61.2% 3B $2,500 3B $2,500 3B $4,800
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.274 0.298 0.100 31.6% 10.0% 24.0% 49.1% SS $2,800 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
9 R.A. Dickey RIGHT 0.125 0.143 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 23.8% 75.0% P $6,900 P $5,400 P $10,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Matt Adams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

Even though R.A. Dickey is having a down season, he still is inducing a lot of soft contact (26%). Basically, teams are drawing a lot of walks and hitting a lot of singles against him. I expect the Nationals’ offense to put up some runs tonight, but they have surprisingly struggled against Dickey in the past. Their current roster is batting .275 with a .320 wOBA in over 150 plate appearances against him. I wouldn’t rule out the one through six stack tonight, but there are a few offenses that I prefer in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.388 0.333 0.235 31.2% 4.7% 18.1% 46.5% SS $4,400 SS $5,400 IF/OF $10,500
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.310 0.237 0.202 30.8% 5.3% 26.3% 42.9% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 RF $5,600
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.381 0.394 0.245 35.3% 18.7% 15.9% 40.0% OF $4,500 OF $5,300 RF $10,200
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.330 0.335 0.193 35.6% 5.6% 23.1% 45.2% 1B $4,000 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.410 0.398 0.242 38.3% 6.4% 9.0% 35.5% 2B $3,600 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.341 0.346 0.189 35.0% 9.6% 17.5% 37.0% 3B $3,800 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.308 0.320 0.160 33.2% 6.6% 17.8% 37.3% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.280 0.273 0.160 31.5% 5.4% 31.6% 42.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
9 Joe Ross RIGHT 0.172 0.157 0.024 16.7% 2.3% 41.9% 73.9% P $8,300 P $7,200 P $14,400

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Tampa Bay Toronto
tampabaymlb Jacob Faria torontomlb Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-150 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.196 0.176 16.7% 12.5% 12.5% 66.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.269 27.7% 8.2% 24.2% 36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.187 0.382 80.0% 6.7% 26.7% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.321 34.3% 8.0% 24.4% 31.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob Faria
jacob-faria-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 3.97 1.42 21.7% 8.7% 50.0% 56.3% 12.5%

In his last start, Faria was only available on FantasyDraft. Hopefully, everyone that plays over there took a shot on him because he was extremely cheap and pitched very well in his major league debut. Faria is a top pitching prospect that posted a 3.21 FIP and a 35% strikeout rate in 11 Triple-A starts this season. The upside is massive and he has the advantage of facing big league hitters for the very first time. The issue tonight is his matchup. He has to face the Blue Jays on the road in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

Quick Breakdown: Faria has some tournament appeal on FanDuel ($5,500), but he’s a little too expensive on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. I’ll wait for a better matchup.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 33.5% 31.3% 21.1%
2017 13 3.50 4.04 27.6% 6.1% 34.6% 30.4% 15.9%

Dollar for dollar, Estrada is my favorite pitcher on the board tonight. He is having an excellent season, posting a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He is a fly-ball pitcher, but he generally limits hard contact against him. He also has good numbers against the Rays. Their current roster is batting .223 against Estrada with a 26% strikeout rate. Many will be concerned about the lefties in the Rays’ lineup, but Estrada has actually held left-handed hitters to a .269 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Quick Breakdown: Estrada is an elite play in all formats and one of my favorite pitchers in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are a boom or bust offense that generally plays better against average to below-average strikeout pitchers. They have a lot of firepower in their lineup, but also have the second highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. This is yet another reason to like Marco Estrada. I will be taking a hard pass on the left-handed hitters in this lineup. As I mentioned above, Estrada has held lefties to a .269 xwOBA with a 28% hard contact rate and a 24% strikeout rate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.365 0.268 0.159 21.3% 10.3% 19.1% 59.3% OF $2,200 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.356 0.322 0.277 33.1% 6.1% 22.0% 34.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 LF $8,700
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.352 0.352 0.237 35.8% 6.2% 19.9% 35.4% 3B $3,600 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.338 0.364 0.235 39.0% 10.9% 23.0% 40.4% 1B $3,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.344 0.317 0.203 31.4% 10.0% 31.2% 41.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.315 0.310 0.197 37.7% 9.5% 30.0% 36.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.325 0.299 0.203 44.9% 4.1% 32.3% 42.5% SS $3,400 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
8 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.239 0.269 0.134 31.3% 6.8% 31.9% 33.8% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.288 0.271 0.133 30.5% 9.6% 26.6% 49.1% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays face a wildcard in rookie Jacob Faria. He pitched well in his major league debut, but that was at home against the White Sox, who are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. He now has to go on the road in a hostile environment and face the loaded lineup of the Blue Jays. I could see Toronto struggling with him the first time through the lineup, but there are some great hitters in this lineup and we know how young pitchers tend to fare on the road. A Blue Jays’ stack is sneaky in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.294 0.297 0.116 25.9% 5.1% 15.0% 48.2% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.410 0.406 0.286 40.3% 14.6% 18.8% 40.5% 3B $4,300 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.363 0.366 0.221 38.3% 16.2% 21.3% 36.5% OF $3,700 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.317 0.395 0.200 40.5% 8.7% 19.0% 49.2% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.346 0.362 0.244 41.8% 10.9% 30.8% 29.9% 1B $3,900 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.320 0.349 0.183 34.0% 7.0% 18.2% 41.8% SS $2,700 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.327 0.320 0.167 31.0% 11.7% 27.0% 49.5% C $2,300 3B/C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.314 0.279 0.115 26.0% 8.5% 20.9% 55.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.260 0.276 0.143 28.9% 6.7% 22.0% 47.7% 2B $2,100 SS $2,700 2B $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Boston
philadelphiamlb Ben Lively bostonmlb David Price
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-250 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.365 36.4% 11.5% 0.0% 63.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.281 30.8% 2.9% 19.8% 46.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.294 24.0% 6.7% 10.0% 32.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.308 35.5% 6.4% 25.0% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ben Lively
edward-lively-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 6.38 2.57 5.4% 8.9% 46.8% 29.8% 27.7%

Lively has had some success in the minors, but he doesn’t have that elite strikeout upside that some of the young up-and-comers like Jacob Faria do. In his first two major league starts, Lively has a strikeout rate of 5.4%. You might be wondering if that is a typo, but it’s not. If you aren’t striking any batters out and you are a fly-ball pitcher playing in Fenway Park, odds are that you will struggle mightily. That’s exactly what I expect from Lively tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $10,100 Salary: $19,600
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 35 3.60 3.99 24.0% 5.3% 43.7% 34.8% 18.6%
2017 3 4.68 5.29 20.8% 9.7% 35.4% 27.1% 31.3%

Price hasn’t looked great in his first three starts of the season, but there are some encouraging signs. His velocity is up a bit from last season, he is generating a swinging strike rate of 11.2%, and he threw 107 pitches in his last start. Basically, he has life in his fastball and is no longer on a pitch count. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Phillies, who are ranked 18th in team wOBA against southpaws this season. The middle of the Phillies’ lineup can hit lefties well, but it’s not like he is facing the Tigers, who have a lineup full of right-handed power.

Quick Breakdown: As a massive favorite at home, Price is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

If you are playing David Price and want a Phillies’ hedge stack, I certainly don’t blame you. We have seen Price get shelled a number of time since joining the Red Sox. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a 35.5% hard contact rate to righties, which brings the two through seven batters into play in tournaments. For cash games, there are better matchups to exploit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.298 0.287 0.099 25.5% 8.5% 24.1% 55.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
2 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.362 0.391 0.048 31.3% 22.2% 18.5% 62.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
3 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.315 0.365 0.077 32.1% 12.8% 17.9% 62.4% OF $2,900 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.354 0.367 0.295 31.8% 9.0% 21.9% 38.3% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.340 0.335 0.220 33.3% 10.7% 18.4% 50.0% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.331 0.347 0.208 36.7% 6.6% 15.3% 46.0% 3B $2,700 3B $2,400 3B $4,800
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.413 0.322 0.278 35.1% 9.2% 26.1% 49.4% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,200
8 Andres Blanco SWITCH 0.257 0.242 0.127 23.8% 5.1% 23.7% 51.2% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,700 2B $5,400
9 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.236 0.257 0.115 24.9% 1.9% 17.7% 40.7% SS $2,500 SS $2,600 SS $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Nava, Howie Kendrick, Tommy Joseph, Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox are tied with the Twins for the highest implied run total in the slate. They are facing a rookie pitcher that has a high fly-ball rate and a low strikeout rate. Boston often lets us down in these situations, but this is a tremendous spot for this offense and I will be loading up on their hitters in both cash games and tournaments. The one through seven batters in this lineup are all viable targets and we can play around with a few different stack options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.380 0.334 0.205 34.2% 8.5% 10.6% 42.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.351 0.328 0.124 32.3% 7.9% 9.5% 50.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.345 0.295 0.142 29.8% 7.3% 16.9% 47.7% SS $3,700 SS $4,500 SS $8,700
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.323 0.359 0.199 39.5% 8.9% 22.9% 39.4% 1B $3,500 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
5 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.353 0.332 0.199 37.2% 8.3% 15.6% 35.3% OF $2,800 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
6 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.344 0.344 0.185 37.3% 9.5% 19.4% 48.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.359 0.360 0.237 37.9% 11.4% 21.4% 45.7% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
8 Josh Rutledge RIGHT 0.297 0.225 0.043 25.8% 10.5% 29.5% 60.7% 2B $2,700 2B/3B $3,000 2B $6,000
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.272 0.255 0.075 30.1% 3.3% 22.6% 58.1% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $5,700

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs NY Mets
cubsmlb Jon Lester nymetsmlb Zack Wheeler
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.247 0.271 28.5% 4.0% 27.1% 53.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.298 41.7% 9.6% 27.0% 44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.285 25.8% 8.0% 23.7% 46.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.295 27.8% 10.1% 16.8% 51.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 13 3.96 4.13 23.8% 8.4% 50.0% 25.5% 21.8%

Lester has struggled a bit in his last three outings, allowing 13 earned runs while only striking out 12 batters. He still has an above-average strikeout rate on the season and he still has one of the lowest hard contact rates in baseball, but the huge outings haven’t been there this season. The Mets are a much better offense against left-handed pitching now that they have Yoenis Cespedes back in the mix. If you look at the projected starter table below, you can see that only two of the Mets’ hitters have a strikeout rate over 20% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Lester isn’t the worst play on the board tonight, but I will be taking a hard pass in both cash games and tournaments.

Zack Wheeler
zack-wheeler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 4.40 3.45 21.2% 9.9% 48.6% 33.3% 19.4%

Wheeler has had a pretty decent season overall, posting a 4.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% in 11 starts. He has an above-average ground ball rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA. The Cubs seem like a daunting matchup, but they are actually ranked 24th in team wOBA and 18th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I’m not sure that I will end up using Wheeler in a 15 game slate, but I like him more than Jon Lester when you factor in their salaries.

Quick Breakdown: Wheeler is viable in tournaments if you are making multiple lineups and want a contrarian play for a reasonable price.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs’ offense has been ice cold against right-handed pitching over the last few weeks. They are small favorites tonight, but they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If you are targeting anyone here, make sure they bat from the left side of the plate. On the season, Zack Wheeler has allowed a 42% hard contact rate to lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.312 0.300 0.104 29.3% 5.1% 21.1% 52.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.352 0.238 36.5% 10.2% 22.3% 30.9% 3B $4,000 3B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.380 0.249 36.6% 12.9% 15.5% 37.1% 1B $4,100 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.349 0.369 0.177 33.9% 15.3% 11.8% 46.9% OF $3,000 2B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.295 0.314 0.112 27.0% 8.1% 13.4% 46.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.327 0.307 0.181 32.5% 8.7% 28.4% 54.2% C $2,400 C $2,900 IF/OF $5,600
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.296 0.270 0.158 28.6% 2.0% 26.2% 45.9% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $3,300 2B $6,600
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.298 0.292 0.156 27.5% 7.6% 22.6% 42.9% SS $2,800 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.132 0.228 0.047 24.5% 5.2% 26.0% 65.9% P $9,400 P $8,800 P $17,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets

In DFS, everything comes down to options. In smaller slates, the Mets would have a lot more fantasy appeal than they do in a 15 game slate that is littered with options at each and every position. With some of the gas cans on the mound tonight, it’s hard to justify playing the Mets against Jon Lester, who is still an above-average pitcher at this stage in his career. Wilmer Flores, Yoenis Cespedes, and Neil Walker all boast a .355+ xwOBA against lefties, but all three are secondary plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.256 0.262 0.134 31.5% 9.6% 30.9% 38.9% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
2 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.452 0.380 0.336 29.4% 5.6% 11.2% 27.7% 3B $2,700 2B/3B $3,100 3B $6,000
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.446 0.456 0.337 47.0% 16.7% 17.5% 34.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.277 0.299 0.164 34.5% 4.7% 22.3% 34.1% OF $3,600 1B/OF $4,500 RF $8,700
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.388 0.356 0.225 37.0% 10.1% 14.3% 31.0% 2B $3,300 2B $4,500 2B $8,800
6 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.328 0.324 0.123 38.0% 6.5% 16.6% 47.7% SS $2,800 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
7 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.322 0.299 0.139 35.7% 12.0% 19.3% 53.6% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.397 0.357 0.270 31.7% 13.6% 9.7% 37.7% 3B $2,600 3B/SS $2,800 SS $5,600
9 Zack Wheeler RIGHT 0.000 0.128 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $8,400 P $7,300 P $14,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Flores, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious