MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 12th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET
| Tampa Bay | NY Yankees | ||||||||||
 | Blake Snell |  | Jordan Montgomery | ||||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| NYY-110 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.302 | 32.7% | 13.8% | 26.4% | 48.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | |||||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.326 | 30.7% | 12.9% | 23.4% | 32.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | |||||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Blake Snell | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 20 | 4.61 | 3.67 | 24.0% | 13.1% | 35.3% | 37.2% | 31.1% | |
We have two young southpaws on the mound today in Yankee Stadium. Snell has shown some upside in the past two seasons with a strikeout rate of 24%, but his command has been an issue. He has walked left and right-handed hitters at rates of 14% and 13%, respectively. With this game being on the road in a hitter-friendly environment, I will be looking elsewhere in the early-only slates on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Quick Breakdown: More risk than reward.
| Jordan Montgomery | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $11,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Montgomery is making his major league debut today against the Rays. Judging by his scouting report, he is a very large human. He stands 6’6” and weighs 225 pounds. He is a left-handed pitcher with a 93-95 MPH fastball and he has shown great strikeout potential in the minors. I generally like to take a wait and see approach given the volatility of pitchers in their major league debuts, but Montgomery is on my radar in tournaments. Not only do the Rays strikeout at a high rate against lefties, but the savings with Montgomery allow you to spend up on hitters from Coors Field.
Quick Breakdown: Playable in GPPs, especially if you want to stack Coors Field.
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
While I will have some shares of Jordan Montgomery, I will also make sure to hedge those lineups with a couple of Rays’ stacks. We never really know how pitchers are going to fare in their major league debuts, regardless of their skill level. Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, and Derek Norris all have a hard contact rate of at least 35% against left-handed pitching. We can also add Kevin Kiermaier to the stack, as he has a .353 wOBA against lefties.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.267 | 0.080 | 37.2% | 3.4% | 29.7% | 48.7% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 | LF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.176 | 31.9% | 11.1% | 21.3% | 43.3% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.211 | 35.1% | 7.5% | 21.1% | 29.8% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $8,400 |
| 4 | Brad Miller | LEFT | 0.289 | 0.143 | 28.9% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 48.1% | 2B | $2,900 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,600 |
| 5 | Steve Souza | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.152 | 36.8% | 6.0% | 36.8% | 42.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,600 |
| 6 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.125 | 25.5% | 11.0% | 23.3% | 55.3% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
| 7 | Derek Norris | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.130 | 41.5% | 9.9% | 22.0% | 31.9% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,400 |
| 8 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.148 | 0.039 | 13.5% | 8.6% | 25.9% | 69.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,600 |
| 9 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.165 | 32.8% | 8.8% | 33.3% | 50.0% | SS | $2,000 | 2B/SS | $3,100 | SS | $6,000 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Derek Norris
Stackability – YELLOW
NY Yankees
This isn’t a game that I am going to have a lot of exposure to in general, but there are a few intriguing plays from the Yankees. Blake Snell hasn’t been great against right-handed hitters, allowing a .326 wOBA with a walk rate of 13%. Aaron Hicks is an interesting value if he bats in the two hole. Matt Holliday, Chris Carter, and Aaron Judge all have great power numbers against southpaws.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.283 | 0.083 | 24.3% | 7.4% | 18.6% | 53.2% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.213 | 0.110 | 39.4% | 6.3% | 19.7% | 43.0% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,600 |
| 3 | Matt Holliday | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.265 | 43.9% | 7.0% | 15.5% | 46.9% | OF | $3,100 | 1B/OF | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
| 4 | Chris Carter | RIGHT | 0.363 | 0.309 | 39.0% | 13.0% | 26.5% | 36.8% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,600 |
| 5 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.166 | 32.8% | 5.2% | 18.5% | 45.0% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B/SS | $3,400 | 2B | $6,600 |
| 6 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.082 | 28.5% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 46.0% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $6,000 |
| 7 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.164 | 0.000 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 55.6% | 20.0% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 8 | Austin Romine | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.156 | 28.9% | 3.0% | 14.9% | 51.9% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,600 | C | $5,100 |
| 9 | Ronald Torreyes | RIGHT | 0.235 | 0.023 | 28.6% | 12.2% | 16.3% | 57.1% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B/SS | $2,500 | SS | $4,800 |
Elite Plays – Chris Carter
Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge
Stackability – YELLOW
Minnesota at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
| Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||||||
 | Kyle Gibson |  | Michael Fulmer | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| DET-138 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.375 | 31.3% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 50.2% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.274 | 30.4% | 7.9% | 17.7% | 47.6% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.335 | 31.4% | 8.2% | 17.1% | 47.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.295 | 30.4% | 5.1% | 23.2% | 50.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Kyle Gibson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $12,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 26 | 4.70 | 5.08 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 48.8% | 28.5% | 31.4% | |
Gibson does not fit the mold of what we are looking for in a pitcher. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he isn’t particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters. As a sizable underdog on the road against the Tigers, Gibson is an easy fade in all formats.
Quick Breakdown: Nothing to see here, moving on.
| Michael Fulmer | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,500 | Salary: | $9,500 | Salary: | $18,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 27 | 4.05 | 2.95 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 48.8% | 31.8% | 30.4% | |
Fulmer had an excellent rookie season with the Tigers, but his peripheral stats aren’t quite as good as his ERA. We can expect a little regression this season, but he still has a league-average strikeout rate with a ground-ball rate of 49%. He draws a plus-matchup against the Twins, who have three batters with at least a 30% strikeout rate against righties. If I had to rank the ten pitchers in the early slate, Fulmer would come in at number three.
Quick Breakdown: Viable in all formats, preferably as an SP2.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Michael Fulmer splits don’t jump off the page at us. He has a decent strikeout rate, he doesn’t walk many batters, he induces a lot of ground balls, and he doesn’t give up hard contact to left or right-handed hitters. With a game in Coors Field and the Indians’ offense in a great spot, I plan to have little or no exposure to the Twins.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.257 | 33.0% | 8.8% | 19.6% | 38.4% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $8,000 |
| 2 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.213 | 34.2% | 10.3% | 19.1% | 45.7% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,300 | RF | $6,400 |
| 3 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.218 | 40.1% | 10.4% | 36.6% | 33.3% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 4 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.134 | 31.7% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 48.6% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 5 | Jorge Polanco | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.120 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 34.0% | SS | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
| 6 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.202 | 36.9% | 13.5% | 31.9% | 43.1% | C | $2,900 | C | $2,500 | C | $4,800 |
| 7 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.192 | 24.1% | 5.4% | 37.7% | 37.2% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $6,000 |
| 8 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.187 | 34.5% | 3.6% | 25.0% | 44.7% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,100 | LF | $6,000 |
| 9 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.284 | 0.101 | 26.0% | 5.7% | 17.0% | 38.1% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $4,800 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Detroit
The only negative in Kyle Gibson pitching profile is his high ground ball rate. Everything else is exploitable for opponents. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he allows a .330+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Tigers don’t have many left-handed hitters to throw at Gibson, but their righties can all hit right-handed pitching well. They are a sneaky offense to target in a slate where everyone will be focused on Coors Field.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.188 | 34.0% | 6.3% | 16.7% | 34.0% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $8,100 |
| 2 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.217 | 36.8% | 7.2% | 23.7% | 31.6% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.253 | 40.6% | 9.9% | 16.7% | 41.2% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,700 | 1B | $9,300 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.347 | 0.192 | 40.2% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 36.4% | C | $2,700 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
| 5 | Justin Upton | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.223 | 38.0% | 8.4% | 28.1% | 39.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,000 | LF | $7,800 |
| 6 | Tyler Collins | LEFT | 0.346 | 0.198 | 31.0% | 7.8% | 25.8% | 34.5% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,700 | CF | $5,400 |
| 7 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.238 | 0.078 | 28.3% | 5.6% | 27.2% | 42.3% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,600 |
| 8 | JaCoby Jones | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.105 | 23.5% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 58.8% | OF | $2,300 | 3B/SS | $2,800 | 3B | $5,600 |
| 9 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.266 | 0.055 | 13.9% | 5.1% | 10.7% | 56.6% | SS | $2,100 | 3B/SS | $2,600 | SS | $5,200 |
Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos
Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Tyler Collins
Stackability – YELLOW
San Diego at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET
| San Diego | Colorado | ||||||||||
 | Zach Lee |  | Kyle Freeland | ||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| COL-140 | 12.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.443 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | |||||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.228 | 33.3% | 9.1% | 22.7% | 71.4% | |||||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Zach Lee | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,000 | Salary: | $7,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 30 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 30 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
When Lee was first told that he was going to draw his second career major league start, he was probably ecstatic. The Padres then had to tell him that he was facing the Rockies in Coors Field. Lee isn’t a top prospect and he’s had a low strikeout rate throughout his career in the minors.
Quick Breakdown: You know better.
| Kyle Freeland | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $9,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 29 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 1 | 2.78 | 1.50 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 66.7% | 13.3% | 37.5% | |
Freeland is also making his second career major league start. With two inexperienced pitchers on the mound, maybe we finally see Coors Field do Coors Field type of things (aka score runs). There is a reason why the run total is set at 12 runs.
Quick Breakdown: Don’t even think about it.
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
The Padres may not have the most talented lineup in baseball, but they have some good young hitters in their lineup. They are also playing in Coors Field, which makes average hitters look like superstars. I prefer the right-handed hitters against the lefty, Kyle Freeland, but I don’t expect him to pitch deep into this game. If you are looking for a way to get low ownership in this game, target the left-handed batters from the Padres. As always, a Coors Field stack is viable in both cash games and tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Margot | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.182 | 47.1% | 4.3% | 21.7% | 64.7% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,600 | CF | $9,000 |
| 2 | Wil Myers | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.191 | 40.0% | 10.4% | 24.9% | 42.7% | 1B | $4,100 | 1B/OF | $5,300 | IF/OF | $10,200 |
| 3 | Yangervis Solarte | SWITCH | 0.316 | 0.162 | 28.4% | 7.0% | 15.7% | 42.0% | 3B | $3,500 | 2B/3B | $4,800 | 3B | $9,200 |
| 4 | Hunter Renfroe | RIGHT | 0.463 | 0.400 | 33.3% | 4.8% | 9.5% | 50.0% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,500 | RF | $8,700 |
| 5 | Ryan Schimpf | LEFT | 0.297 | 0.293 | 41.9% | 7.5% | 41.8% | 12.9% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B/3B | $4,600 | 2B | $8,800 |
| 6 | Austin Hedges | RIGHT | 0.219 | 0.071 | 33.3% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 33.3% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,700 | C | $7,200 |
| 7 | Erick Aybar | SWITCH | 0.231 | 0.052 | 18.3% | 2.5% | 20.5% | 69.7% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $4,200 | SS | $8,000 |
| 8 | Luis Perdomo | RIGHT | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 37.5% | P | $5,500 | P | $4,200 | P | $8,400 |
| 9 | Travis Jankowski | LEFT | 0.180 | 0.022 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 28.0% | 54.5% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,000 |
Elite Plays – Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Hunter Renfroe
Secondary Plays – Ryan Schimpf, Austin Hedges
Stackability – GREEN
Colorado
Is anyone else fed up with the Rockies’ offense? After boldly predicting that they would score 12 runs on their own last night, they had trouble with Jered Weaver of all pitchers. Luckily, they hit three home runs to salvage the day, but I’m ready for a breakout game. It could very well come today against Zach Lee, who is making a spot start for the Padres. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and a Rockies’ stack is viable in all league formats. If you have been burned by Coors Field recently, don’t give up just yet.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Blackmon | LEFT | 0.398 | 0.266 | 39.0% | 7.3% | 17.1% | 29.9% | OF | $4,500 | OF | $5,100 | CF | $10,000 |
| 2 | DJ LeMahieu | RIGHT | 0.381 | 0.128 | 33.9% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 53.1% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B/3B | $4,800 | 2B | $9,200 |
| 3 | Carlos Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.368 | 0.199 | 35.5% | 9.2% | 18.2% | 45.3% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,200 | RF | $10,000 |
| 4 | Nolan Arenado | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.288 | 37.7% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 36.3% | 3B | $4,900 | 3B | $5,300 | 3B | $10,200 |
| 5 | Gerardo Parra | LEFT | 0.290 | 0.158 | 34.9% | 2.7% | 19.6% | 53.6% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,100 |
| 6 | Trevor Story | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.279 | 39.8% | 7.3% | 31.1% | 32.3% | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,700 | SS | $9,200 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.222 | 29.1% | 9.0% | 24.5% | 39.5% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B/3B | $5,000 | 1B | $9,900 |
| 8 | Tony Wolters | LEFT | 0.321 | 0.145 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 23.0% | 43.9% | C | $3,200 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
| 9 | Kyle Freeland | LEFT | P | $5,600 | P | $4,700 | P | $9,200 |
Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra, Mark Reynolds
Secondary Plays – Tony Wolters
Stackability – GREEN
St. Louis at Washington – 4:05 PM ET
| St. Louis | Washington | ||||||||||
 | Mike Leake |  | Max Scherzer | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| WAS-200 | 7.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.322 | 29.2% | 5.2% | 16.6% | 54.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.324 | 30.7% | 9.1% | 24.9% | 32.3% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.317 | 30.3% | 2.9% | 16.8% | 52.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.204 | 28.4% | 3.3% | 38.2% | 33.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Mike Leake | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $11,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 31 | 3.91 | 4.53 | 16.7% | 3.9% | 53.2% | 25.5% | 29.8% | |
Leake is a better pitcher in real life than he is in daily fantasy. His strikeout rate is well below the league average, which limits his upside in DFS. He typically doesn’t make many mistakes and puts his team in position to win more often than not. Unfortunately, we care more about strikeouts than we do any other statistic for a pitcher. It also doesn’t help that he is facing a red-hot Nationals’ offense on the road.
Quick Breakdown: There are better plays for cash games and GPPs.
| Max Scherzer | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $10,900 | Salary: | $12,600 | Salary: | $24,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 35 | 3.05 | 2.95 | 31.4% | 6.3% | 32.7% | 48.1% | 29.6% | |
The main question that we have to ask ourselves in the early slate is whether we want to play Scherzer or whether we want to load up on Coors Field. With that pesky little thing called the salary cap, we can’t afford to do both. Scherzer is clearly the top pitching option on the mound today, as he boasts a ridiculous 3.05 SIERA and a strikeout rate over 30%. He doesn’t walk many batters and he doesn’t give up hard contact. Did I mention he has an elite strikeout rate? I thought so. The Cardinals’ lineup doesn’t look as intimidating as it has in year’s past, so target Scherzer with confidence in this spot.
Quick Breakdown: Easily the top pitcher on the board.
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Could Max Scherzer give up a solo home run or two today? Sure. Am I going to bet on it? Absolutely not. Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball and the Cardinals have to face him on the road.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.359 | 0.159 | 27.9% | 14.9% | 25.5% | 36.3% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,800 |
| 2 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.248 | 32.7% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 44.4% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
| 3 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.380 | 0.253 | 46.8% | 15.3% | 18.7% | 28.8% | 2B | $3,000 | 1B/3B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,800 |
| 4 | Stephen Piscotty | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.158 | 33.4% | 6.4% | 22.6% | 45.8% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
| 5 | Yadier Molina | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.120 | 30.8% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 48.5% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 6 | Jhonny Peralta | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.151 | 33.5% | 6.8% | 17.4% | 40.8% | SS | $2,700 | 3B/SS | $2,900 | 3B | $5,700 |
| 7 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.235 | 40.4% | 4.5% | 30.9% | 43.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,800 |
| 8 | Kolten Wong | LEFT | 0.297 | 0.119 | 25.0% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 48.6% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $5,400 |
| 9 | Mike Leake | RIGHT | 0.138 | 0.031 | 13.0% | 2.9% | 31.4% | 35.0% | P | $6,300 | P | $5,600 | P | $11,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Washington
The Nationals’ offense has been scoring runs in bunches this season. While I expect them to pick up another win at home, I’m not overly excited about a matchup against Mike Leake. He doesn’t allow a ton of baserunners and he has allowed a hard contact rate under 31% to both left and right-handed hitters. Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy, and Bryce Harper are all viable one-off targets, but I’d rather spend up on the hitters in Coors Field.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Eaton | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.172 | 32.4% | 9.3% | 17.3% | 49.9% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,100 |
| 2 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.183 | 36.1% | 8.4% | 19.3% | 35.6% | 3B | $3,000 | 2B/3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.356 | 0.202 | 35.2% | 18.5% | 15.6% | 39.0% | OF | $4,800 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $9,900 |
| 4 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.425 | 0.260 | 41.2% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 36.1% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B/3B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,800 |
| 5 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.153 | 32.8% | 4.9% | 24.5% | 45.5% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B/3B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 6 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.137 | 32.1% | 11.0% | 24.6% | 41.9% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,600 | LF | $7,200 |
| 7 | Stephen Drew | LEFT | 0.369 | 0.269 | 43.4% | 10.3% | 20.5% | 32.1% | SS | $2,000 | 2B/SS | $2,800 | 2B | $5,400 |
| 8 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.320 | 0.181 | 32.2% | 6.8% | 17.2% | 36.7% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,300 |
| 9 | Max Scherzer | RIGHT | 0.198 | 0.017 | 25.0% | 2.7% | 32.4% | 77.8% | P | $10,900 | P | $12,600 | P | $24,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy
Stackability – ORANGE
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET
| Chicago White Sox | Cleveland | ||||||||||
 | Derek Holland |  | Danny Salazar | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CLE-230 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.245 | 18.5% | 5.8% | 19.5% | 55.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.281 | 36.0% | 9.9% | 29.7% | 44.8% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.343 | 35.2% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 34.7% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.327 | 32.2% | 11.9% | 26.6% | 50.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Derek Holland | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $4,500 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 29 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 21 | 5.02 | 4.84 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 38.3% | 39.9% | 32.3% | |
Holland has not been the same pitcher in the last few seasons. Since the start of last year, he has a 5.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.8%. That’s not going to cut it in DFS and that may not cut it in the majors for much longer. He is the largest underdog on the board and should be avoided in all league formats.
Quick Breakdown: High risk and low upside = no bueno.
| Danny Salazar | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | 3.86 | 3.87 | 27.6% | 10.8% | 47.8% | 35.1% | 33.8% | |
If you are looking for a way to get a good pitcher and still have a lot of exposure to Coors Field, Salazar may be your answer. Since the start of last season, he has a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%. He is a massive favorite at home and he actually draws a better matchup than Max Scherzer. The White Sox offense looks pitiful right now and there doesn’t seem to be light at the end of that dark tunnel. They only have three hitters in their lineup with at least a .320 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Playable in all formats. A great pivot off of Scherzer if you want more exposure to Coors Field.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
I am very bullish on the White Sox offense in general and particularly in this matchup. Danny Salazar has an above-average strikeout rate against both left and right-handed hitters. The White Sox have a low implied run total and are big underdogs on the road. They are right there with the Cardinals as my least favorite offense in the early slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Saladino | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.131 | 22.8% | 4.5% | 19.8% | 49.7% | SS | $3,000 | 3B/SS | $3,800 | ||
| 2 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.148 | 30.6% | 3.1% | 27.4% | 51.3% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $4,100 | ||
| 3 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.157 | 29.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 43.5% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,400 | ||
| 4 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.157 | 31.0% | 6.0% | 17.6% | 46.1% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,700 | ||
| 5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.224 | 31.2% | 9.3% | 23.0% | 37.3% | 3B | $3,400 | 1B/3B | $4,700 | ||
| 6 | Cody Asche | LEFT | 0.264 | 0.132 | 34.1% | 7.0% | 25.6% | 37.4% | OF | $2,200 | 3B/OF | $4,700 | ||
| 7 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.141 | 31.1% | 6.8% | 26.0% | 54.5% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,700 | ||
| 8 | Geovany Soto | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.259 | 45.5% | 9.1% | 24.2% | 33.3% | C | $2,600 | C | $4,100 | ||
| 9 | Jacob May | SWITCH | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.4% | 75.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $4,700 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Cleveland
Derek Holland has good numbers against left-handed hitters, but he gets torched by righties every time out. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .343 wOBA and a hard contact rate of 35%. He also has a strikeout rate of only 13.8% against righties. We can stack the Indians in both cash games and tournaments, especially the top five hitters in this lineup.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.335 | 0.140 | 29.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 53.4% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,800 | ||
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.327 | 0.134 | 29.8% | 6.6% | 14.4% | 48.3% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $4,800 | ||
| 3 | Brandon Guyer | RIGHT | 0.434 | 0.209 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 38.4% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,500 | ||
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.262 | 37.6% | 19.1% | 21.0% | 36.6% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,900 | ||
| 5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.365 | 0.162 | 31.5% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 42.6% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B/OF | $4,400 | ||
| 6 | Yandy Diaz | RIGHT | 0.127 | 0.000 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 60.0% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B | $3,000 | ||
| 7 | Austin Jackson | RIGHT | 0.195 | 0.021 | 44.4% | 7.5% | 24.5% | 42.9% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $4,800 | ||
| 8 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.157 | 21.1% | 5.5% | 25.5% | 60.5% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,800 | ||
| 9 | Abraham Almonte | SWITCH | 0.319 | 0.171 | 28.3% | 4.0% | 24.0% | 51.9% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,600 |