MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-27 19:50:07

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Atlanta
			Luis Castillo							Sean Newcomb
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-138							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.383	0.387	43.6%	10.2%	19.3%	39.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.337	0.390	41.7%	15.0%	25.0%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.313	33.1%	7.5%	25.3%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	0.263	28.5%	10.0%	23.7%	48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		16 of 28	Salary Rank:		24 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	15	3.63	3.12	27.3%	8.9%	58.8%	29.7%	22.1%
	2018	16	4.13	5.70	22.4%	8.8%	44.7%	38.3%	20.2%
	L14	2	4.75	5.06	15.2%	6.5%	42.4%	40.0%	22.9%

We have three early games on the schedule today, which is a little light for a Wednesday. We start with the Reds and Braves in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs. There was a point when it appeared Castillo was turning his season around, but over his last two starts he has a 4.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a hard contact rate of 40%. There are enough red flags here that we don’t need to take the risk on Castillo, even in a small slate like this one. The projected lineup for the Braves has a .343 xwOBA with a 41% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Castillo in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sean Newcomb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 28	Salary Rank:		2 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	19	4.71	4.32	23.7%	12.5%	43.8%	27.0%	17.5%
	2018	15	4.16	2.59	23.9%	10.8%	49.1%	30.6%	23.6%
	L14	3	3.84	2.95	22.9%	7.1%	43.8%	40.8%	22.5%

Newcomb doesn’t have the best control in baseball, but he is having a much better sophomore campaign than Luis Castillo. In 15 starts, Newcomb has a 4.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 49%. He induces a lot of soft and medium contact and has held right-handed hitters to a .263 xwOBA this season. His matchup against the Reds isn’t perfect, but their lineup mostly consists of right-handed hitters. This ballpark favors left-handed power, which bodes well for Newcomb’s matchup against Cincinnati.

Quick Breakdown: Newcomb is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have an easy matchup to break down. Sean Newcomb is a southpaw with severe reverse-splits. He has held righties to a .263 xwOBA, while allowing a .390 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to lefties. With a sample size of 15 starts, we have no choice but to believe in these splits. The three lefties in this Reds’ lineup are Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett. Votto (.459 xwOBA) and Schebler (.387 xwOBA) are the only two that hit left-handed pitching well. Both should be low owned here in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.387	0.384	0.140	46.9%	3.3%	13.1%	53.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.276	0.334	0.035	26.8%	4.4%	5.5%	41.8%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.366	0.484	0.132	42.0%	15.3%	19.8%	46.4%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.459	0.453	0.310	60.0%	19.4%	18.1%	40.0%	3B	$4,000	3B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.297	0.257	0.234	38.6%	2.5%	26.3%	37.5%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
6	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.385	0.380	0.246	54.4%	16.7%	24.4%	28.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.415	0.242	0.625	37.5%	11.1%	0.0%	50.0%	C	$2,300	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.100	0.155	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%	P	$7,500	P	$5,500	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.268	0.311	0.134	28.6%	9.5%	33.8%	22.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.328	0.333	0.206	40.9%	9.1%	18.4%	41.1%

Elite Plays – Scott Schebler (GPP), Joey Votto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler (Cash), Joey Votto (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta

The Braves are a sneaky offense to stack here in the early slate. The biggest weapon for Luis Castillo this season has been his strikeout rate and Atlanta has one of the lowest k-rates of any offense in baseball. As mentioned above, this ballpark favors left-handed power and on the season, Castillo has allowed a .387 xwOBA with a 44% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. Ender Inciarte (stolen base upside), Ozzie Albies (nice mix of speed and power), Freddie Freeman (.435 xwOBA against righties), and Nick Markakis (.404 xwOBA against righties) all bat from the left side and are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.278	0.271	0.129	26.2%	7.0%	12.7%	46.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.315	0.318	0.221	33.3%	5.3%	18.4%	36.5%	2B	$4,700	2B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.435	0.309	0.212	47.3%	15.1%	16.0%	32.7%	1B	$4,700	1B	$5,400	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.404	0.393	0.141	37.2%	11.3%	7.5%	42.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.325	0.401	0.172	36.8%	4.9%	9.7%	34.2%	C	$2,900	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Danny Santana	SWITCH	0.626	0.495	0.000	100.0%	20.0%	40.0%	0.0%	3B	$2,500	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.360	0.337	0.186	43.0%	18.8%	18.0%	50.6%	3B	$2,600	3B/SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.289	0.235	0.160	31.3%	6.2%	26.2%	43.8%	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
9	Sean Newcomb	LEFT	0.057	0.000	0.045	10.0%	0.0%	60.0%	85.7%	P	$8,600	P	$10,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.343	0.307	0.141	40.6%	9.8%	23.2%	41.4%

Elite Plays – Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Plays – Kurt Suzuki, Danny Santana

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Milwaukee
			Danny Duffy							Brent Suter
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-190							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.268	0.361	38.6%	6.7%	20.0%	30.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.296	0.339	36.7%	7.5%	15.0%	41.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.364	0.383	39.0%	12.0%	19.2%	31.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.322	30.9%	4.2%	21.0%	32.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Danny Duffy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		20 of 28	Salary Rank:		22 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.31	3.81	21.4%	6.7%	39.5%	29.8%	17.8%
	2018	16	5.01	5.18	19.3%	11.2%	31.5%	39.0%	14.3%
	L14	2	4.81	4.50	23.5%	13.7%	32.3%	35.5%	16.1%

Duffy’s velocity has been trending upward in each of his last five starts. In his last outing, he has his highest average fastball velocity of the season (94.9 MPH). This is always important with Duffy because he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. When his velocity is down, it hurts his strikeout rate and leads to more fly balls and more extra-base hits. The issue here is a matchup against the Brewers, whose projected lineup has a .363 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of only 18% against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Duffy is viable in tournaments, but an easy fade in cash games.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brent Suter
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 28	Salary Rank:		16 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	14	4.37	3.42	18.8%	6.5%	45.2%	28.9%	23.7%
	2018	14	4.09	4.15	19.6%	5.0%	34.2%	32.3%	20.5%
	L14	2	4.50	1.93	15.7%	3.9%	38.5%	20.5%	28.2%

Suter’s numbers aren’t going to jump off the page — 4.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%, but he has been incredibly consistent over the last month of play. He has scored at least 16 fantasy points (DK scoring) in each of his last six starts. His ability to throw strikes helps him pitch deep into games and consequently, rack up more fantasy points. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Royals, whose projected lineup has a .305 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Suter is the top play of the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Brent Suter isn’t a pitcher that I love to target hitters against. He rarely gets blown up and on the season has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .340 xwOBA this season. He doesn’t walk many batters and he’s one of the best in baseball at holding runners. Whit Merrifield (.421 xwOBA) and Salvador Perez (.326 xwOBA) both hit left-handed pitching well. While viable in tournaments, I plan to have more exposure to Suter than to this Royals’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.421	0.312	0.242	45.5%	7.1%	14.3%	31.2%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Rosell Herrera	SWITCH	0.325	0.310	0.111	50.0%	0.0%	11.1%	62.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.347	0.349	0.144	38.1%	3.8%	14.4%	43.4%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.326	0.319	0.250	37.5%	7.0%	22.8%	35.0%	C	$2,500	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Hunter Dozier	RIGHT	0.342	0.245	0.069	33.3%	9.4%	25.0%	33.3%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.308	0.220	0.167	30.2%	5.4%	18.9%	44.2%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,600	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.286	0.454	0.000	31.0%	11.1%	20.6%	69.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Adalberto Mondesi	RIGHT	0.082	0.269	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Danny Duffy	LEFT								P	$6,900	P	$6,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.305	0.310	0.123	33.2%	5.5%	24.2%	52.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield (GPP), Salvador Perez (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee

The Brewers should be licking their chops in a matchup against Danny Duffy. While his velocity has been up recently, he has allowed a .383 xwOBA, a 39% hard contact rate, and a 12% walk rate to right-handed hitters this season. Milwaukee will likely have six or seven righties in their lineup today and they are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Jonathan Villar, and Erik Kratz all bat from the right side and all boast at least a .355+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching. Hernan Perez and Christian Yelich are also viable if you are building a full stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.298	0.286	0.178	42.9%	0.0%	23.9%	37.1%	3B	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.356	0.352	0.121	39.6%	6.7%	20.0%	55.8%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.428	0.359	0.245	44.2%	15.3%	11.9%	48.8%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.396	0.462	0.310	46.9%	12.2%	20.4%	28.1%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.359	0.248	0.289	40.7%	7.3%	26.8%	59.3%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Keon Broxton	RIGHT										OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.370	0.282	0.300	37.5%	0.0%	20.0%	50.0%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.199	0.201	0.026	28.1%	4.9%	17.1%	65.6%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Brent Suter	LEFT	0.495	0.398	0.500	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$7,100	P	$7,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.363	0.324	0.246	41.2%	12.1%	17.5%	43.1%

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Jonathan Villar

Secondary Plays – Hernan Perez, Christian Yelich, Keon Broxton, Erik Kratz (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								Houston
			Marco Estrada							Dallas Keuchel
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-200							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.323	24.8%	7.8%	18.8%	28.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.300	25.4%	4.1%	21.7%	60.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.356	0.354	33.3%	5.1%	19.9%	23.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	0.312	30.6%	6.6%	17.6%	52.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		12 of 28	Salary Rank:		18 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	33	4.69	4.98	21.8%	8.8%	30.3%	27.2%	21.4%
	2018	15	4.70	4.48	19.4%	6.3%	25.5%	29.6%	19.2%
	L14	3	3.97	1.83	27.4%	6.9%	17.0%	20.8%	20.8%

Estrada is a form pitcher that appears to be rounding into form. In his last three starts, he has a 3.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a hard contact rate of 21%. While the form has been better, it’s not enough to overcome a matchup against the Astros, whose projected lineup has a .339 xwOBA, a .168 ISO, and an 18% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is facing an offense that hits a lot of home runs.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on Estrada moving forward, but avoid him today against the Astros.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dallas Keuchel
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	23	3.61	2.90	21.4%	8.1%	66.8%	24.7%	25.4%
	2018	16	3.84	3.90	18.5%	6.0%	54.3%	29.4%	22.7%
	L14	3	3.60	2.76	18.0%	3.9%	50.8%	25.0%	11.7%

Kuechel has pitched well in each of his last two starts, although it’s worth noting that they both came against the Royals (who are awful against left-handed pitching). In 16 starts overall, Keuchel owns a 3.84 SIERA with a ground ball rate of 54%. While he doesn’t offer much in terms of strikeout upside, the same can be said about most of the pitchers available in the early slate. His matchup against the Blue Jays is mediocre at best, as Toronto’s projected lineup has a .345 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Keuchel is viable in all formats, but is far from a sure thing in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have hit left-handed pitching well this season, but draw a difficult matchup against Dallas Keuchel. In addition to having an elite ground ball rate, Keuchel has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season. If you are targeting any Blue Jays’ hitters here, make sure they have high fly-ball rates. Of the projected starters below, that includes Steve Pearce, Yangervis Solarte, and Kevin Pillar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.476	0.511	0.239	36.8%	6.1%	16.3%	34.2%	OF	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.328	0.309	0.133	26.9%	11.4%	22.9%	50.7%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.350	0.392	0.255	31.9%	6.1%	11.3%	37.2%	3B	$3,100	2B/3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.385	0.490	0.129	48.0%	11.1%	19.4%	48.0%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.260	0.201	0.170	34.7%	3.2%	16.0%	39.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.349	0.342	0.024	35.7%	17.6%	25.5%	53.6%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.319	0.376	0.109	22.9%	5.9%	23.5%	42.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.257	0.281	0.022	26.3%	6.0%	16.0%	36.8%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.382	0.377	0.289	33.3%	2.6%	12.8%	45.5%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.345	0.364	0.152	32.9%	7.8%	18.2%	43.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Steve Pearce (GPP), Yangervis Solarte (GPP), Kevin Pillar (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

The Astros have the highest implied run total of the early slate, but I see their matchup against Marco Estrada as the boom or bust type. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is rounding into form. He has a high strikeout rate over his last few starts and an ability to generate a lot of soft and medium contact. The good news for Houston is that Estrada has reverse splits this season, allowing a .354 xwOBA with a 44% hard contact rate to righties. George Springer (.352 xwOBA), Alex Bregman (.415 xwOBA), Jose Altuve (.384 xwOBA), and Carlos Correa (.340 xwOBA) all hit right-handed pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.352	0.366	0.169	34.3%	9.6%	17.1%	49.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.415	0.416	0.194	40.2%	13.3%	13.3%	37.9%	3B	$4,400	3B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.384	0.442	0.173	37.1%	9.9%	12.7%	45.5%	2B	$4,600	2B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.340	0.356	0.238	30.9%	9.5%	25.4%	45.6%	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.285	0.358	0.110	31.2%	2.8%	9.9%	54.1%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.329	0.338	0.116	31.2%	13.2%	15.1%	35.2%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.335	0.376	0.223	40.6%	7.7%	26.3%	32.7%	C	$3,100	C	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.315	0.349	0.156	35.8%	12.6%	26.9%	41.7%	OF	$2,300	1B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.296	0.277	0.134	29.0%	7.3%	16.3%	24.7%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.339	0.364	0.168	34.5%	9.5%	18.1%	40.8%

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick, Evan Gattis (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Yankees at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Philadelphia
			Luis Cessa							Zach Eflin
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-114							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.142	0.167	0.0%	9.1%	45.5%	60.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	0.346	29.5%	6.5%	26.1%	32.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.261	0.294	25.0%	16.7%	16.7%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.268	0.274	27.2%	5.2%	23.5%	38.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Cessa
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$11,800
	Salary Rank:		28 of 28	Salary Rank:		23 of 28	Salary Rank:		18 of 28
	2017	5	4.88	4.75	18.8%	10.6%	45.5%	29.1%	21.8%
	2018	0	3.31	3.00	30.4%	13.0%	53.8%	15.4%	15.4%
	L14	0	5.87	0.00	25.0%	25.0%	75.0%	0.0%	25.0%

Cessa is making his first start of the season. He has made four appearances out of the bullpen, but has yet to throw more than 30 pitches in any single outing. While we’ve been targeting the Yankees’ starters against the Phillies with success in this series, this is the time to hop off. Cessa is expected to be capped at 70-80 pitches and his numbers last season were mediocre at best. He would need a near perfect outing to reach value and I’m not expecting that from him in his first start of the season.

Quick Breakdown: For now, avoid Cessa in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zach Eflin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,500
	Salary Rank:		11 of 28	Salary Rank:		11 of 28	Salary Rank:		9 of 28
	2017	11	5.08	6.16	12.5%	4.3%	44.1%	33.3%	16.7%
	2018	9	3.62	3.44	24.6%	5.8%	35.5%	28.2%	21.8%
	L14	3	2.69	2.81	31.8%	4.8%	44.7%	29.0%	26.3%

Eflin has really turned his career around this season. After posting a SIERA over five in 2017, he has a 3.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 6% in 2018. He has managed to induce a lot of soft and medium contact, which is important in this ballpark. While there are plenty of positives, he may be in for some tough sledding tonight against the Yankees, whose projected lineup has a .351 xwOBA with a .227 ISO and a strikeout rate of 23%. The risk outweighs the reward for Eflin.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Eflin in all formats, but keep an eye on him moving forward.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have an easy matchup to break down in terms of the splits. On the season, Zach Eflin has held right-handed hitters to a .274 xwOBA and a 27% hard contact rate. Meanwhile, he has allowed a .346 wOBA to left-handed hitters. This doesn’t mean that we can’t play some of the right-handed power in this lineup, but they are best suited as tournament plays. The core plays for me are Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, and Greg Bird.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.310	0.286	0.157	31.8%	11.9%	16.4%	49.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,700
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.409	0.408	0.301	48.8%	14.9%	29.8%	46.5%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,400
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.356	0.339	0.258	41.2%	9.7%	13.4%	32.9%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,900
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.298	0.336	0.171	34.1%	8.4%	33.6%	53.8%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,600
5	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.364	0.225	0.208	36.3%	3.2%	17.8%	50.7%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.281	0.292	0.246	37.5%	5.4%	28.4%	43.8%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,300
7	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.398	0.334	0.258	39.0%	6.2%	26.7%	29.8%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.389	0.300	0.214	35.6%	13.6%	18.2%	42.2%	C	$2,200	C	$3,600	C	$7,700
9	Luis Cessa	RIGHT								P	$5,500	P	$5,900	P	$11,800
	Team Averages		0.351	0.315	0.227	38.0%	9.2%	23.0%	43.6%

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies will likely face a number of relievers tonight, as Luis Cessa likely won’t pitch more than four or five innings. The sample size is fairly small, but Cessa has had reverse-splits in his career, allowing a .289 wOBA to lefties and a .349 wOBA to righties. Rhys Hoskins is an excellent tournament play, as he boasts a .385 xwOBA and a .231 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, and Nick Williams are also viable, but secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.334	0.305	0.150	26.3%	14.1%	22.8%	44.2%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,200
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.395	0.411	0.231	34.8%	13.7%	27.8%	28.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,000	IF/OF	$9,700
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.333	0.378	0.206	27.9%	7.8%	19.6%	43.9%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,200	IF/OF	$9,800
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.387	0.353	0.237	36.4%	19.8%	13.7%	36.7%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,300
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.387	0.366	0.237	33.0%	8.6%	23.2%	47.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
6	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.307	0.297	0.114	28.1%	6.6%	22.4%	38.9%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,600
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.313	0.303	0.162	22.8%	4.5%	16.7%	55.3%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,500
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.261	0.234	0.131	29.0%	3.6%	39.1%	55.3%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
9	Zach Eflin	RIGHT	0.186	0.093	0.214	33.3%	0.0%	57.1%	83.3%	P	$7,900	P	$7,900	P	$15,500
	Team Averages		0.323	0.304	0.187	30.2%	8.7%	26.9%	48.1%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Baltimore
			Wade LeBlanc							Alex Cobb
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-101							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.335	27.6%	2.8%	15.3%	35.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.414	0.388	38.2%	6.3%	17.4%	40.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.349	31.0%	6.5%	21.4%	34.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.369	0.333	30.9%	5.2%	13.9%	58.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Wade LeBlanc
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		24 of 28	Salary Rank:		12 of 28	Salary Rank:		11 of 28
	2017	0	3.97	4.50	19.1%	6.0%	45.9%	34.1%	20.9%
	2018	10	4.13	3.26	19.8%	5.5%	34.7%	30.1%	16.8%
	L14	3	3.63	4.15	22.9%	4.3%	35.3%	37.3%	11.8%

LeBlanc has had a nice season overall, posting a 4.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. Very few pitchers can maintain the same level of success after being moved from the bullpen to a starter. The issue with LeBlanc is that he’s a fly-ball pitcher that struggles with right-handed power. He’ll face a lot of that tonight against the Orioles in a ballpark that favors right-handed power. With this game set as a pick ‘em with a total of 9.5 runs, both pitchers are easy fades in an 11-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid LeBlanc in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,100
	Salary Rank:		26 of 28	Salary Rank:		27 of 28	Salary Rank:		21 of 28
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%
	2018	13	4.39	6.56	15.5%	5.7%	50.4%	34.1%	20.5%
	L14	3	3.79	7.64	21.5%	6.3%	52.6%	36.8%	22.8%

Cobb has pitched better over his last few starts, but still owns a 4.39 SIERA with an uninspiring strikeout rate of 16%. He does have a decent ground ball rate, but he still allows a lot of hard contact. He draws one of the worst possible matchups, as he faces a Mariners’ lineup that has a .351 xwOBA with a 35% hard contact rate and a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching. This is a better game to target for the offenses than it is for the pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cobb in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners see a significant ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards and draw an exploitable matchup against Alex Cobb. While he hasn’t been great against righties, he has really struggled against lefties, allowing a .388 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate. Dee Gordon, Kyle Seager, and Denard Span all bat from the left side and provide good upside at their respective positions. If you want to complete the stack, Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz both own a .410+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.276	0.254	0.069	17.9%	2.0%	16.0%	54.0%	2B	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,100
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.330	0.277	0.144	30.2%	3.6%	13.6%	55.2%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,900	SS	$8,900
3	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.412	0.365	0.251	41.0%	12.2%	23.6%	41.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,400
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.411	0.537	0.254	39.3%	6.7%	19.7%	43.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,000
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.337	0.327	0.202	40.7%	6.2%	20.4%	35.5%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.372	0.391	0.222	41.3%	3.6%	21.3%	41.6%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,400
7	Denard Span	LEFT	0.353	0.299	0.163	34.8%	13.4%	13.9%	39.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,500
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.340	0.260	0.256	43.2%	3.7%	37.8%	40.5%	C	$2,200	C	$3,400	C	$6,500
9	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.330	0.239	0.112	27.4%	12.8%	18.3%	44.9%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600	CF	$4,900
	Team Averages		0.351	0.328	0.186	35.1%	7.1%	20.5%	44.0%

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, Denard Span

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles haven’t been great against southpaws this season, but their numbers are trending in the right direction. Their projected lineup has a .338 against lefties, which is far better than it was at this point a month ago. They draw a favorable matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who has allowed a .335 xwOBA to lefties and a .349 xwOBA to righties. Manny Machado and Danny Valencia are both elite plays at their respective positions, as they both own a .390+ xwOBA against southpaws this season. Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, and Mark Trumbo are viable lineup fillers, especially if you are looking to stack Baltimore.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.296	0.297	0.140	26.9%	6.9%	25.7%	68.7%	OF	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.333	0.281	0.069	30.8%	2.2%	11.1%	38.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,400
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.390	0.417	0.244	35.4%	8.7%	5.4%	35.4%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,000	3B	$9,600
4	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.418	0.384	0.169	27.3%	11.4%	13.6%	42.4%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,300
5	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.301	0.313	0.088	27.6%	8.0%	13.3%	43.9%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,700
6	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.340	0.462	0.160	38.9%	7.3%	25.5%	44.4%	OF	$3,200	1B/OF	$4,400	DH	$8,500
7	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.309	0.187	0.224	41.2%	10.3%	38.2%	38.2%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,700
8	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.337	0.326	0.211	54.6%	17.4%	34.8%	45.5%	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,300	SS	$6,600
9	Austin Wynns	RIGHT	0.316	0.199	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	30.8%	33.3%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.338	0.318	0.145	32.6%	8.0%	22.0%	43.4%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 27th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kansas City at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Toronto at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author