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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-01 03:48:36

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Arizona Pittsburgh
arizonamlb Zack Godley pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-112 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.314 24.2% 10.6% 20.3% 59.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.395 0.357 38.5% 8.2% 16.3% 36.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.333 36.5% 5.4% 17.6% 55.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.287 29.1% 6.6% 19.0% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Godley
zachary-godley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.16 6.39 17.9% 7.5% 53.8% 32.1% 17.9%
2017 5 3.66 1.99 21.5% 9.1% 66.2% 27.4% 16.7%

Happy Hump Day everyone, we are halfway to Friday. If you are a fan of good pitching, then I might suggest waiting until the main slate this evening. The early slate’s pitching options are gross; there’s no other way to put it. When Zack Godley and Dan Straily are options 1A and 1B in a slate, it’s obviously not ideal. Now, we have to work with what we are given in DFS and I’m always a fan of short slates, so let’s get into it. Godley has pitched well in his five starts this season, posting a 3.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 67%. The Pirates don’t strikeout at a high rate, but they are ranked 25th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: In the early slate, Godley is viable in both cash games and tournaments, even though he’s an underdog on the road.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 4.20 17.6% 6.6% 44.3% 33.0% 19.6%
2017 10 4.73 6.29 17.8% 8.4% 36.8% 34.7% 15.0%

Kuhl has been an easy fade for me this season. He has a below-average strikeout rate, a low ground ball rate, and a high hard contact rate. He hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in six straight starts and there aren’t any signs that suggest improvement moving forward. The only time to potentially target Kuhl is when he is facing a right-handed heavy offense. The Diamondbacks have a lot of righties, but they should have four left-handed hitters in their lineup today. If that’s the case, Kuhl will have more risk than potential reward.

Quick Breakdown: Until he flashes some type of form, I will continue to avoid Kuhl in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks draw an exploitable matchup against Chad Kuhl, who has not fared well against left-handed hitters in his career. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .357 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to lefties. Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Chris Herrmann, and Rey Fuentes all bat from the left side and are all viable depending on where they bat in the lineup. The righties are less appealing, but Paul Goldschmidt does have a .384 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.317 0.295 0.140 32.0% 4.4% 21.0% 49.1% SS $3,000 OF/SS $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
2 David Peralta LEFT 0.337 0.313 0.166 36.6% 5.3% 18.9% 54.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.383 0.384 0.209 38.9% 14.4% 21.0% 46.1% 1B $4,400 1B $5,700 1B $11,100
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.389 0.376 0.296 40.9% 10.9% 24.3% 42.9% 3B $4,000 3B $5,100 3B $10,000
5 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.321 0.325 0.220 40.0% 5.3% 24.1% 47.5% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.346 0.314 0.169 32.3% 6.4% 21.4% 49.1% 2B $2,400 2B $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
7 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.277 0.275 0.085 24.4% 10.9% 20.1% 46.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
8 Jeff Mathis RIGHT 0.197 0.200 0.077 25.9% 1.3% 29.7% 41.5% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Zack Godley RIGHT 0.098 0.095 0.000 8.3% 0.0% 36.8% 63.6% P $7,700 P $8,700 P $16,800

Elite Plays – Gregor Blanco, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Chris Owings, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Herrmann

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Zack Godley hasn’t been unhittable this season, but he’s not a pitcher that we like targeting hitters against. He has an above-average strikeout rate and a massive ground ball rate of 67%. When a pitcher can keep the ball on the ground, it limits extra base-hits and therefore, limits the upside of the opposing offense. I’m fine with Josh Bell as a one-off target, but the rest of the Pirates are secondary plays at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.347 0.349 0.145 33.3% 9.2% 14.2% 43.3% OF $3,500 2B/OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.303 0.279 0.100 27.2% 4.0% 14.6% 42.8% 3B $3,300 2B/3B $4,300 2B $8,400
3 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.342 0.347 0.174 31.6% 12.5% 16.5% 50.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.322 0.323 0.138 33.3% 8.8% 27.5% 59.2% 3B $2,800 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
5 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.310 0.331 0.156 34.7% 9.1% 21.3% 37.8% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.312 0.324 0.094 28.6% 13.0% 19.3% 52.5% C $3,200 C $3,500 C $6,800
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.298 0.301 0.102 25.1% 8.8% 14.1% 50.0% SS $3,100 SS $4,000 SS $7,800
8 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.320 0.366 0.208 24.4% 5.7% 13.2% 43.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.075 0.158 0.000 26.3% 6.5% 32.3% 75.0% P $6,200 P $4,800 P $9,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell

Stackability – RED

Cincinnati at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

Cincinnati Toronto
cincinnatimlb Tim Adleman torontomlb Mike Bolsinger
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-145 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.335 0.321 29.5% 8.8% 18.5% 29.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.348 31.8% 10.4% 21.9% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.334 36.8% 6.5% 17.3% 45.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.436 0.406 35.2% 11.1% 14.3% 42.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tim Adleman
tim-adleman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 4.87 4.00 16.4% 7.0% 36.4% 35.4% 14.0%
2017 7 4.33 4.95 20.5% 8.4% 42.1% 30.2% 16.4%

To his credit, Adleman has a strikeout rate of 20.5% this season. Other than that, his numbers could use some help. In seven starts, he has a 4.33 SIERA with a walk rate of 8% and a low ground ball rate. Now that the Blue Jays have Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back in the lineup, they are a forced to be reckoned with, especially at home. Toronto has already scored 23 runs in the first two games of the series and we can expect them to tack on some more today.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Adleman in all formats.

Mike Bolsinger
michael-bolsinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 4.34 6.83 20.5% 7.4% 33.7% 41.9% 17.4%
2017 4 5.73 5.75 14.0% 15.0% 57.4% 23.5% 14.7%

Bolsinger has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball so far this season. In four starts, he has a 5.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate (14%) that is lower than his walk rate (15%). He comes into this game as a sizable favorite, but that has more to do with the Reds’ pitcher than anything else. This is a game to target for offensive production, as evidenced by the over/under that is set at 10.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bolsinger in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds will not be as popular as the Blue Jays in the early slate, but their offense is just as appealing. Mike Bolsinger has allowed a .348 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .406 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He has a high walk rate and he is the worst in the slate at holding runners (hello, Billy Hamilton). A Reds’ stack is firmly in play here and we can load up on batters from both sides of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.308 0.260 0.083 19.5% 9.1% 19.6% 46.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,900 CF $9,600
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.341 0.304 0.174 29.9% 9.1% 16.5% 38.3% SS $3,300 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.422 0.441 0.253 40.5% 17.7% 14.8% 37.1% 1B $4,300 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.331 0.329 0.259 36.8% 5.6% 26.2% 33.0% OF $3,600 OF $5,300 IF/OF $10,200
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.317 0.319 0.159 33.8% 7.8% 23.6% 40.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.340 0.333 0.211 34.9% 7.5% 21.6% 49.2% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.312 0.300 0.077 18.5% 2.0% 13.5% 43.8% 2B $2,700 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
8 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.325 0.287 0.163 30.3% 5.6% 19.8% 43.5% 2B $2,200 2B/OF $3,600 2B $7,200
9 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.316 0.332 0.127 31.6% 9.0% 14.3% 46.2% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the highest implied run total in the slate. After the first two games in this series, it should come as no surprise. Their offense is finally firing on all cylinders and it should continue to roll today against Tim Adleman, who has allowed a .321 xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Adleman has also allowed a 37% hard contact rate to righties, which plays right into the hand of Toronto.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.300 0.294 0.118 26.3% 5.1% 15.1% 48.1% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.403 0.402 0.272 40.4% 14.7% 19.0% 39.8% 3B $3,900 3B $4,800 3B $9,200
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.363 0.370 0.222 39.1% 16.5% 21.8% 36.8% OF $4,100 OF $5,200 RF $10,000
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.315 0.398 0.202 40.8% 8.6% 18.9% 48.6% 1B $3,300 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.327 0.345 0.207 41.8% 11.0% 32.7% 30.5% 1B $3,600 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.322 0.317 0.158 30.3% 11.5% 26.7% 49.8% C $2,700 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.323 0.356 0.188 34.4% 7.4% 17.6% 40.9% SS $3,100 SS $4,100 SS $8,000
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.336 0.312 0.171 31.3% 4.9% 19.5% 44.3% 2B $3,200 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.295 0.268 0.105 24.6% 8.1% 21.5% 57.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 RF $6,000

Elite Plays – Kevin Pillar, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Houston Minnesota
houstonmlb David Paulino minnesotamlb Hector Santiago
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-110 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.370 23.5% 14.3% 4.8% 52.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.393 0.392 36.1% 14.2% 16.5% 45.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.200 0.296 33.3% 0.0% 12.5% 16.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.347 37.7% 8.7% 18.3% 30.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Paulino
david-paulino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 6.29 5.14 6.9% 10.3% 43.5% 26.1% 21.7%

Paulino made one start and had two relief appearances last season. We can throw those numbers out the window because more often than not, young pitchers struggle in their first stint in the majors. Paulino is one of the Astros’ top pitching prospects and he’ll draw today’s start against the Twins with Joe Musgrove landing on the DL. He doesn’t have a ton of experience above Double-A ball, but has shown a 25%+ strikeout rate at every level. His range of potential outcomes is quite broad today, but he certainly carries some GPP appeal.

Quick Breakdown: Paulino is a top pitching prospect with a bright future. He is worth a look in tournaments against the Twins.

Hector Santiago
hector-santiago-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 5.07 4.70 18.3% 10.1% 34.1% 37.3% 18.1%
2017 10 5.12 4.31 16.5% 9.1% 32.4% 37.6% 14.6%

Santiago is not a pitcher that I target in DFS, even in a small slate like this one. He currently owns a SIERA of 5.12 with a below-average strikeout rate. He is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. The Astros haven’t been as good against lefties as they have been against righties this season, but they are still a talented offense that can put runs on the scoreboard quickly.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Santiago in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros draw one of the best matchups on the board. They get to face Hector Santiago, who is a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .392 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .347 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. The Astros will likely roll out a right-handed heavy lineup, but hitters from both sides of the plate are worth a look here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.396 0.405 0.292 41.1% 12.0% 21.9% 45.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.379 0.365 0.210 35.7% 10.8% 13.8% 43.7% 2B $3,900 2B $5,500 2B $10,800
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.310 0.371 0.124 39.5% 13.4% 18.5% 50.3% SS $4,100 SS $5,400 SS $10,400
4 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.373 0.343 0.208 39.5% 5.3% 20.3% 32.2% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.328 0.281 0.192 28.2% 6.3% 25.2% 50.7% 1B $3,700 3B/OF $4,200 1B $8,100
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.330 0.315 0.188 24.7% 13.0% 18.3% 44.9% C $3,000 C $3,700 C $7,200
7 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.190 0.254 0.063 32.9% 2.4% 8.5% 50.7% 1B $2,700 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.338 0.298 0.165 31.9% 8.7% 23.3% 29.9% 3B $2,800 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.295 0.283 0.154 28.4% 7.9% 28.5% 41.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota

The Twins draw a boom or bust matchup against David Paulino, who is a top pitching prospect that is only making his second career major league start. It’s always hard to predict what will happen in these situations, but I tend to gravitate toward playing both sides in tournaments and avoiding both sides in cash games. When we have a pitcher with a broad range of outcomes, it can pay off to be on both sides of the coin.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.353 0.333 0.242 33.7% 9.5% 19.8% 38.5% 2B $3,900 2B $5,000 2B $9,900
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.342 0.326 0.135 28.2% 15.9% 23.7% 39.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
3 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.349 0.396 0.141 34.1% 14.4% 14.6% 47.1% 1B $3,400 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.351 0.345 0.231 43.6% 11.7% 37.5% 33.0% 3B $3,700 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,300
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.346 0.327 0.219 35.7% 10.6% 18.3% 42.8% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.312 0.304 0.115 25.0% 7.7% 11.9% 35.2% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.318 0.289 0.188 32.4% 3.9% 23.1% 44.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
8 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.252 0.261 0.098 30.3% 8.1% 24.8% 48.4% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.279 0.229 0.159 22.6% 6.3% 36.3% 36.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Miami
philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola miamimlb Dan Straily
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-130 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.310 28.9% 9.3% 21.0% 54.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.279 0.313 30.0% 12.7% 20.7% 34.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.274 26.9% 3.8% 27.1% 55.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.314 35.6% 6.9% 21.9% 31.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 5 4.04 4.34 20.5% 8.2% 53.5% 24.4% 26.7%

Nola has a low ERA this season, but his SIERA and strikeout rate are both worse than they were a year ago. He is still generating an elite ground ball rate and I’m still buying his stock long-term. The Marlins have been tough on right-handed pitching recently and have the eighth lowest strikeout rate on the season. I don’t mind using Nola as a leverage play off of Dan Straily in tournaments, but he likely won’t make the cut for my early slate lineups.

Quick Breakdown: Nola has some deep GPP appeal, but I prefer Straily and Godley.

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 10 4.30 3.83 24.6% 10.9% 35.0% 36.7% 22.3%

Straily has bad command and he gives up a lot of hard contact, but we can overlook that thanks to two things – a matchup against the Phillies and a 25% strikeout rate. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 21st in team wOBA and 17th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Straily is also pitching at home, which is a great ballpark for fly-ball pitchers. You know the pitching options are scarce when Straily is the best play in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Straily is the path of least resistance when it comes to pitching options in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies’ offense has struggled over the last few weeks and has struck out at a very high rate. I have very little interest in their offense today against Dan Straily, but he has allowed a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.336 0.309 0.112 25.1% 11.0% 18.4% 53.0% 2B $2,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.328 0.305 0.146 28.7% 8.5% 20.5% 44.1% OF $2,500 OF $2,500 IF/OF $4,800
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.318 0.302 0.147 33.5% 9.7% 31.1% 50.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.327 0.327 0.205 37.0% 5.4% 21.7% 41.6% 1B $3,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.325 0.324 0.194 37.3% 10.0% 26.2% 38.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.297 0.316 0.166 32.3% 6.7% 28.3% 47.1% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $5,200
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.291 0.319 0.149 29.1% 6.6% 16.4% 44.9% 3B $2,900 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.305 0.276 0.176 28.2% 5.4% 21.2% 40.1% SS $2,700 SS $2,600 SS $5,100
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.112 0.142 0.031 5.9% 8.1% 43.2% 80.0% P $7,900 P $8,000 P $15,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tommy Joseph, Michael Saunders

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Even though the Marlins are favored, they aren’t one of my favorite offenses in the early slate. A matchup against Aaron Nola is far from ideal, as he has a 54%+ ground ball rate against both left and right-handed hitters. Not only does he have a high ground ball rate, he has held batters from both sides under a .310 xwOBA. Justin Bour has been on a tear recently and is viable in all formats, but the rest of the Marlins are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.299 0.246 0.076 19.3% 5.5% 15.9% 56.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.332 0.334 0.226 37.3% 9.3% 28.7% 40.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.373 0.387 0.196 40.5% 12.0% 20.0% 54.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.335 0.333 0.182 36.6% 7.7% 19.8% 47.1% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.356 0.393 0.230 40.1% 12.0% 16.8% 45.3% 1B $3,300 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.339 0.310 0.116 30.9% 5.3% 16.7% 50.2% C $2,900 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.338 0.342 0.143 29.9% 8.0% 20.1% 36.9% 3B $2,600 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.330 0.337 0.271 45.5% 5.5% 14.5% 33.3% SS $2,700 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.045 0.072 0.000 14.8% 1.5% 58.2% 81.8% P $8,200 P $9,000 P $17,600

Elite Plays – Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Chicago Cubs San Diego
cubsmlb Jake Arrieta sandiegomlb Luis Perdomo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-160 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.331 30.2% 12.9% 24.2% 48.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.378 0.381 39.5% 6.7% 14.4% 51.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.262 24.7% 5.2% 24.6% 51.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.289 27.3% 7.1% 19.6% 68.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $9,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.94 3.10 23.9% 9.6% 52.6% 25.2% 22.9%
2017 10 3.43 4.92 26.1% 6.1% 41.1% 33.1% 22.7%

This game isn’t included in the early slate on FanDuel, DraftKings, or FantasyDraft. It is featured in some of the all-day leagues though, so we will quickly cover it. Last season, Arrieta had a lower ERA than SIERA and this season, it has flipped. His SIERA is currently a run and a half lower than his ERA, which suggests some positive regression. He still has a high strikeout rate and he draws a dream matchup against the Padres, who have the second highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I really wish this game was included in the early slate. A good Arrieta start is going to go to waste.

Luis Perdomo
luis-perdomo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.04 5.71 15.9% 7.0% 59.0% 34.0% 16.7%
2017 8 3.20 5.61 22.0% 6.8% 65.9% 29.6% 14.4%

Perdomo has one of the largest gaps between his ERA and his SIERA this season. We can expect some positive regression moving forward, as a .362 BABIP and a 20% HR/FB rate are unsustainable. He has a massive ground ball rate and his strikeouts are trending in the right direction. I’ve been a Perdomo truther for a while now and I hope he can have some better luck in the near future. I don’t love his matchup against the Cubs, but he’s worth a look in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Perdomo is a bit too risky to use in cash games, but he’s viable as a low-owned GPP play.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The book on Luis Perdomo is straightforward. He is good against righties and he struggles with lefties. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .381 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. All of the left-handed hitters are in play here, even in this pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.360 0.369 0.184 33.5% 15.3% 11.9% 46.2% OF $3,400 2B/OF $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.287 0.358 0.180 36.7% 12.3% 27.9% 46.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.377 0.350 0.235 37.1% 9.8% 22.8% 31.1% 3B $4,100 3B $5,400 N/A N/A
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.387 0.377 0.256 37.0% 12.0% 16.1% 36.7% 1B $4,400 1B $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.367 0.352 0.243 36.4% 13.6% 34.1% 40.9% 2B $3,100 2B $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.300 0.318 0.118 27.3% 8.8% 13.8% 45.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.331 0.310 0.193 32.6% 9.2% 28.0% 53.8% C $2,700 C $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.294 0.294 0.147 27.5% 7.4% 21.8% 43.5% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.242 0.258 0.148 33.3% 3.2% 39.7% 42.9% P $10,300 P $9,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego

The Padres draw a difficult matchup against Jake Arrieta. Not only does he have an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate, but the Padres are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. They can be avoided in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Allen Cordoba RIGHT 0.367 0.325 0.125 24.1% 6.4% 17.9% 50.0% SS $2,300 OF/SS $2,600 N/A N/A
2 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.339 0.315 0.167 31.8% 7.9% 13.4% 40.8% 3B $2,700 2B $3,000 N/A N/A
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.346 0.326 0.221 35.1% 8.8% 24.2% 43.5% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Ryan Schimpf LEFT 0.359 0.341 0.307 35.4% 14.3% 30.8% 18.9% 2B $2,800 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.304 0.287 0.218 33.9% 3.5% 29.2% 38.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.424 0.365 0.200 50.0% 0.0% 20.0% 50.0% OF $3,000 OF $2,400 N/A N/A
7 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.266 0.266 0.194 33.3% 5.8% 31.4% 42.7% C $2,200 C $2,300 N/A N/A
8 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.278 0.265 0.099 20.8% 7.8% 14.7% 51.4% SS $2,200 SS $2,300 N/A N/A
9 Luis Perdomo RIGHT 0.185 0.145 0.108 13.6% 2.4% 41.5% 44.4% P $6,700 P $6,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious