Sign In $

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-10 01:38:09

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Mets at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

NY Mets Cincinnati
nymetsmlb Zack Wheeler cincinnatimlb Sal Romano
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-108 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.363 0.359 38.4% 10.6% 24.9% 42.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.331 35.2% 10.6% 18.0% 44.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.336 27.1% 9.5% 17.3% 51.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.309 30.1% 9.1% 16.0% 54.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Wheeler
zack-wheeler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $7,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 17 4.64 5.21 21.0% 10.4% 47.5% 32.8% 18.3%
2018 5 4.42 5.79 19.1% 8.7% 50.0% 27.8% 21.1%
L14 3 4.32 8.40 20.0% 9.3% 51.0% 34.6% 21.2%

Wheeler is coming off of a rough outing against the Rockies. He now has an ERA close to six with a below-average strikeout rate on the season. He’s generating ground balls and limiting hard contact, but he needs a higher strikeout rate to warrant consideration in DFS. He can be avoided against the Reds in the home run-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.72 4.45 19.0% 9.6% 50.4% 32.6% 21.5%
2018 7 5.54 4.21 12.0% 10.1% 48.8% 32.0% 24.6%
L14 3 5.30 2.25 12.3% 7.7% 43.1% 35.3% 17.7%

Romano has been an easy fade thus far and that’s not going to change in a matchup against the Mets. In seven starts this season, he owns a 5.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He doesn’t have great control and has struggled against left-handed hitters. New York not only has a left-handed heavy lineup, but a good one at that.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Romano in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have a solid offense against right-handed pitching. They have six projected starters with an xwOBA of at least .340 against righties. They see a major ballpark boost playing in Cincinnati and draw an exploitable matchup against Sal Romano, who has allowed a .331 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce are still too cheap across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.384 0.304 0.255 39.3% 15.6% 22.5% 37.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.353 0.412 0.189 37.3% 9.4% 16.7% 39.6% 2B $3,900 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.340 0.393 0.222 38.7% 6.6% 22.0% 34.5% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.391 0.358 0.253 40.2% 10.2% 20.8% 33.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.344 0.287 0.141 37.2% 8.1% 16.1% 36.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.249 0.327 0.094 25.2% 2.4% 28.8% 50.4% SS $2,500 SS $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.343 0.357 0.132 32.3% 12.0% 25.3% 48.9% C $2,000 C $2,400 N/A N/A
8 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.293 0.292 0.144 26.0% 8.7% 13.1% 38.2% SS $2,000 3B/SS $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Zack Wheeler RIGHT 0.167 0.186 0.033 11.1% 3.1% 40.6% 50.0% P $5,800 P $7,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Yoenis Cespedes, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds have an easy matchup to dissect. Over the last two seasons, Zack Wheeler has allowed a .359 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate and an 11% walk rate to left-handed hitters. Meanwhile, he has held righties to a 27% hard contact rate with a 52% ground ball rate. Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler all bat from the left side and all have good power numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.392 0.398 0.186 36.7% 13.8% 17.2% 43.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.287 0.296 0.082 22.9% 3.3% 13.1% 42.6% SS $3,200 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.447 0.553 0.243 37.4% 18.7% 10.3% 36.0% 1B $4,100 1B $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.343 0.311 0.224 37.8% 6.8% 20.5% 39.7% 2B $3,100 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.366 0.424 0.197 32.9% 12.5% 21.8% 38.2% 3B $4,300 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.354 0.339 0.260 39.2% 9.4% 23.4% 45.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
7 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.342 0.377 0.133 35.0% 10.8% 16.6% 42.1% C $2,500 C $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.116 0.157 0.037 18.8% 2.9% 50.0% 87.5% P $6,000 P $5,100 N/A N/A
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.261 0.291 0.087 15.4% 9.7% 21.0% 48.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland at Milwaukee – 1:10 PM ET

Cleveland Milwaukee
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-138 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.313 31.7% 6.4% 26.7% 43.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.336 30.9% 13.4% 22.2% 33.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.291 26.2% 5.2% 27.8% 44.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.360 37.2% 12.5% 21.1% 38.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $11,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4%
2018 7 3.84 3.95 22.4% 5.8% 38.2% 26.6% 15.3%
L14 3 3.95 6.32 25.0% 8.3% 25.5% 36.2% 12.8%

Carrasco has struggled a bit in his last two starts, but they were both at home. For whatever reason, Carrasco is significantly better on the road than he is at home. This is a trend that has lasted years. After the Brewers knocked Corey Kluber around a bit last night, people will be hesitant to play Carrasco here. Personally, I see this as a great opportunity to target him at low ownership.

Quick Breakdown: In a weak pitching slate, Carrasco is an elite play in all formats.

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $6,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 5.23 5.12 21.3% 13.7% 33.5% 33.5% 18.5%
2018 5 4.41 2.33 22.3% 10.7% 44.9% 36.6% 22.5%
L14 2 4.88 4.91 20.8% 12.5% 43.3% 48.4% 19.4%

Guerra has struggled in his last two starts. While he still has a low ERA on the season, his peripheral statistics don’t support it. He currently owns a 4.41 SIERA with a walk rate of 11% and a hard contact rate of 37%. He draws an awful matchup against the Indians, who have one of the best offenses in baseball. Their projected lineup has a .331 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Guerra is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians see a ballpark boost playing in Milwaukee and draw an exploitable matchup against Junior Guerra. Since the beginning of last season, Guerra has allowed a .336 xwOBA to lefties and a .360 xwOBA to righties. The Indians do lose the use of the DH in this series, but this is an offense that we should be high on in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.365 0.435 0.241 33.0% 8.4% 14.0% 38.3% SS $4,600 SS $5,100 N/A N/A
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.315 0.351 0.155 34.1% 7.2% 20.5% 34.0% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.368 0.459 0.281 31.6% 10.2% 10.6% 37.3% 3B $4,200 3B $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.378 0.420 0.201 39.4% 9.1% 12.9% 46.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.391 0.393 0.257 37.2% 12.3% 20.6% 34.9% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 N/A N/A
6 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.281 0.429 0.139 26.0% 7.2% 27.6% 39.9% C $2,800 C $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.312 0.361 0.074 40.6% 5.0% 25.7% 58.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.302 0.304 0.141 37.2% 8.4% 34.2% 43.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
9 Carlos Carrasco RIGHT 0.268 0.000 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% P $9,500 P $11,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee

The Brewers are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but have one of the worst matchups of the slate. Carlos Carrasco has been dominant on the road over the last few seasons and he has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters. Other than a Travis Shaw one-off in tournaments, I see the Brewers’ offense as an easy fade in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.335 0.364 0.119 29.9% 9.4% 16.9% 47.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.369 0.366 0.170 38.9% 13.1% 19.7% 54.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.328 0.335 0.201 35.1% 6.7% 22.2% 49.5% OF $2,800 1B/OF $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.370 0.361 0.256 39.6% 11.1% 20.4% 41.3% 3B $3,400 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.346 0.349 0.204 37.6% 10.9% 30.2% 46.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.299 0.266 0.164 30.0% 6.4% 19.9% 37.2% C $2,100 C $2,700 N/A N/A
7 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.269 0.284 0.122 34.3% 6.4% 29.8% 58.9% 2B $2,600 2B $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.286 0.242 0.146 31.0% 5.4% 18.6% 52.0% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.080 0.023 0.000 10.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% P $8,000 P $6,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Detroit at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Detroit Texas
detroitmlb Francisco Liriano texasmlb Bartolo Colon
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX-123 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.249 0.260 18.1% 5.2% 24.3% 53.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.354 41.3% 5.8% 13.2% 38.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.359 0.378 33.2% 14.0% 17.6% 43.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.362 0.350 34.2% 3.9% 15.5% 47.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.09 5.66 19.4% 12.1% 44.9% 29.6% 16.8%
2018 6 4.91 2.97 18.6% 11.4% 48.0% 29.6% 18.4%
L14 2 4.85 2.70 12.5% 8.3% 57.9% 15.8% 15.8%

Liriano has an ERA under 3.00, but do not buy that bridge that he’s trying to sell you. He is due for some serious regression. In six starts, he owns a 4.91 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate and a high walk rate. He now has to pitch on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs. Even though the Rangers present some strikeout upside, I have no interest in Liriano.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Liriano in all formats.

Bartolo Colon
bartolo-colon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 16 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.08 6.48 13.7% 5.4% 41.8% 35.8% 17.8%
2018 5 3.75 3.29 17.4% 2.1% 49.6% 46.1% 11.3%
L14 2 4.63 4.50 11.3% 0.0% 42.6% 46.8% 12.8%

Colon has pitched well this season, but I have a hard time seeing him sustain this pace. His numbers weren’t good in 2017 and he’s obviously a year older. When it comes to DFS, he just doesn’t offer enough strikeout upside. He basically relies on run prevention for his fantasy production, which isn’t something that we want to rely on in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown (UPDATED): After seeing the Cubs’ total (wind blowing out) and the Tigers’ lineup, I’m on board with Colon as an SP2 to pair with Cole or Carrasco.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers draw an exploitable matchup against Bartolo Colon and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Over the last two seasons, Colon has allowed a .350+ xwOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. With Leonys Martin on the DL, Jacoby Jones could end up getting the leadoff spot. He’s interesting in this spot, but Jeimer Candelario and Nick Castellanos are the top targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.293 0.316 0.126 35.1% 4.8% 34.4% 43.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,300
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.339 0.313 0.193 31.4% 9.7% 20.3% 44.9% 3B $3,800 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.373 0.438 0.186 43.6% 6.1% 23.0% 35.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,100
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.378 0.323 0.134 43.6% 8.9% 13.6% 37.5% C $2,600 1B $3,200 1B $6,800
5 John Hicks RIGHT 0.324 0.451 0.181 36.5% 5.4% 24.4% 45.6% C $3,100 1B/C $3,500 C $6,600
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.305 0.358 0.110 36.4% 5.3% 23.9% 39.8% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,500
7 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.287 0.305 0.125 29.4% 9.7% 35.5% 55.9% 1B $2,000 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.260 0.291 0.113 27.4% 3.8% 15.2% 51.1% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 SS $5,500
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.299 0.289 0.088 34.3% 5.6% 17.7% 52.3% 2B $2,200 2B $2,700 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Jones, Jeimer Candelario, Victor Martinez, John Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas

The Rangers haven’t been great against left-handed pitching this season, but having Adrian Beltre back in the lineup should help. Their matchup against Francisco Liriano is an intriguing one. The problem is that there are far too many lefties in this lineup. Liriano is a pitcher that we want to pick on with right-handed hitters. He has allowed a .378 xwOBA to righties over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.265 0.273 0.164 25.5% 10.4% 28.2% 38.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,700
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.324 0.300 0.077 25.4% 10.3% 20.5% 60.2% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.265 0.320 0.048 12.5% 16.0% 20.0% 50.0% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,100 3B $6,000
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.377 0.293 0.226 41.9% 12.9% 12.9% 39.2% 3B $2,900 3B $3,400 3B $6,400
5 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.288 0.394 0.120 28.1% 5.0% 25.1% 57.9% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
6 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.389 0.488 0.285 45.8% 12.2% 39.6% 21.1% OF $3,700 1B/OF $4,200 1B $8,100
7 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.375 0.300 0.300 36.0% 16.7% 13.9% 28.0% SS $2,800 SS $3,300 3B $6,300
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.346 0.283 0.255 43.3% 11.2% 26.2% 34.3% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,600
9 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.325 0.250 0.159 45.8% 8.8% 26.4% 50.0% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,900

Elite Plays – Delino DeShields, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Chicago White Sox
pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams whitesoxmlb Reynaldo Lopez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS-100 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.307 23.0% 8.5% 15.0% 45.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.379 34.4% 8.9% 12.5% 26.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.340 34.4% 8.9% 20.4% 46.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.322 26.8% 8.3% 17.5% 34.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 13 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.63 4.07 18.2% 8.1% 48.0% 28.9% 21.8%
2018 7 5.31 2.63 16.1% 11.1% 36.8% 27.1% 23.7%
L14 2 5.62 3.86 10.9% 6.5% 31.4% 26.3% 26.3%

Williams doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we are looking for when it comes to DFS. In seven starts this season, he has a 5.31 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 11%. The White Sox currently have a right-handed heavy lineup, but that’s actually a problem for Williams, who has reverse-splits. On the road in an American League ballpark, he’s one of the easier fades of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Williams offers more risk than upside.

Reynaldo Lopez
reynaldo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 13 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.44 4.72 14.5% 6.8% 30.2% 27.8% 17.9%
2018 6 5.44 2.43 16.1% 11.0% 31.5% 34.2% 22.5%
L14 2 6.62 4.15 3.5% 3.5% 26.9% 40.4% 21.2%

Lopez has a low ERA, but do not buy that Kool-Aid. It’s laced with lies. In those six starts, he has a 5.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 11%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Regression is coming, just like winter. He should be avoided against the Pirates, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Lopez is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Chicago, they get to use the DH in this series, and they draw one of the best matchups of the slate. Over the last two seasons, Reynaldo Lopez has allowed a .379 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. I don’t consider the Pirates core plays in the early slate, but Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, and Corey Dickerson are all solid lineup fillers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.327 0.291 0.132 28.7% 7.9% 12.9% 49.3% OF $2,500 2B $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.338 0.318 0.174 30.3% 8.7% 14.5% 38.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,500
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.320 0.268 0.138 24.9% 7.0% 18.0% 46.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.328 0.287 0.191 32.9% 10.9% 19.6% 52.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.340 0.399 0.224 34.4% 6.2% 20.4% 36.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,100 LF $8,500
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.351 0.418 0.154 35.0% 10.8% 19.8% 44.8% C $2,900 C $3,600 C $7,300
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.380 0.375 0.143 33.3% 11.4% 15.8% 40.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,200 3B $6,600
8 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.229 0.245 0.083 26.3% 9.5% 32.8% 44.0% 2B $2,100 OF/SS $2,800 2B $5,800
9 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.299 0.271 0.148 27.4% 8.6% 16.6% 45.5% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – Adam Frazier

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are a sneaky offense to target in the early slate. They tend to play better at home and their matchup against Trevor Williams is enticing. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .340 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. I also have some interest in Yolmer Sanchez, who has been swinging a hot bat over the last week of action.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.297 0.231 0.169 29.1% 4.2% 22.8% 53.0% 2B $2,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.303 0.328 0.161 26.9% 6.1% 19.0% 45.8% 3B $3,300 3B $3,300 2B $6,400
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.370 0.362 0.236 39.5% 5.0% 16.3% 45.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
4 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.317 0.334 0.160 27.7% 11.6% 18.5% 40.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,800
5 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.344 0.293 0.200 38.3% 6.6% 27.4% 43.5% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,700
6 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.323 0.309 0.333 25.0% 0.0% 20.0% 37.5% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.322 0.434 0.245 41.1% 5.7% 38.3% 39.7% 3B $3,500 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
8 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.263 0.288 0.140 26.5% 3.3% 26.7% 52.4% SS $3,100 SS $3,700 SS $7,700
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.222 0.275 0.090 24.1% 5.9% 37.0% 41.8% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 CF $5,900

Elite Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Nick Delmonico, Welington Castillo, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Miami Chicago Cubs
miamimlb Wei-Yin Chen cubsmlb Jose Quintana
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-230
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.246 0.294 24.3% 4.3% 17.0% 48.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.257 0.261 26.4% 4.3% 27.7% 47.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.303 33.3% 10.2% 17.3% 28.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.333 35.6% 9.4% 24.7% 44.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Wei-Yin Chen
wei-yin-chen-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 28 Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 4.61 3.82 18.9% 6.8% 36.6% 29.9% 24.7%
2018 2 6.74 4.82 11.9% 14.3% 27.6% 33.3% 13.3%
L14 2 6.75 4.82 11.9% 14.3% 27.6% 33.3% 13.3%

Chen has not fared well in his two starts this season, posting a 6.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that tends to struggle against right-handed power. That doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the Cubs, who have plenty of right-handed power in their lineup. I’m writing this on Tuesday night, but the forecast is calling for winds in the high teens blowing out to left field.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chen in all formats.

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $9,700 Salary: $18,400
Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.80 4.15 26.2% 7.7% 44.8% 32.6% 18.2%
2018 6 4.76 4.99 19.9% 11.8% 46.7% 39.8% 12.9%
L14 2 4.02 0.00 25.0% 11.4% 50.0% 28.6% 14.3%

Quintana is slowly starting to turn his season around. In his last two starts, he has shown some strikeout upside. Even though he hasn’t been in great form, you wouldn’t be able to tell by looking at his price on DraftKings. His salary is much more palatable on FanDuel. He’s certainly an appealing play in the early slate, as he squares off against a Marlins’ offense that has struggled to score runs all season. The problem here is the wind. If this game ends up having a high over/under, Quintana would only be viable in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown (UPDATED): The wind is blowing out and we have a high total in Chicago. I’ll be fading Quintana.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins draw a difficult matchup against Jose Quintana, but we could be looking at a great environment for right-handed hitters. If he wind is blowing out hard to left field, all of the right-handed hitters in this game would become viable. Quintana is a solid pitcher, but he has allowed a .333 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to righties over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.350 0.407 0.211 35.6% 10.0% 16.4% 39.6% C $3,700 C $3,900 C $7,200
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.237 0.265 0.057 20.0% 2.7% 16.2% 56.7% 3B $2,300 3B $3,000 3B $5,600
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.357 0.349 0.126 34.3% 10.5% 18.2% 51.0% 2B $3,300 2B $3,400 2B $6,400
4 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.411 0.311 0.130 39.5% 11.5% 26.2% 39.5% 3B $3,200 3B/OF $3,200 3B $6,500
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.296 0.366 0.178 22.9% 11.9% 26.7% 54.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,200 1B $6,500
6 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.296 0.363 0.078 35.1% 7.2% 19.7% 52.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.340 0.341 0.138 27.1% 10.3% 9.3% 33.3% SS $2,400 SS $2,600 2B $4,500
8 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.363 0.276 0.205 25.0% 10.2% 24.5% 61.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
9 Wei-Yin Chen LEFT 0.165 P $5,500 P $4,800 P $9,600

Elite Plays – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

As long as the wind is blowing out to left field, the Cubs will be my favorite offense to target in the early slate. We all know that wind in Wrigley can turn a routine fly-ball into a home run. Add in a matchup against Wei-Yin Chen, who gives up a lot of home runs, and we have ourselves a recipe for a successful stack. All of the right-handed hitters (plus Anthony Rizzo) are viable here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.354 0.260 0.171 27.9% 10.2% 12.1% 45.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 CF $6,700
2 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.336 0.331 0.255 39.3% 6.5% 24.3% 45.2% 2B $4,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,300
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.435 0.323 0.248 37.6% 17.6% 15.4% 34.4% 3B $4,600 3B $5,200 IF/OF $9,900
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.363 0.279 0.223 33.3% 9.0% 15.6% 41.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.396 0.333 0.223 34.6% 15.6% 18.0% 51.4% C $2,600 C $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.308 0.309 0.106 31.9% 9.4% 12.8% 49.1% OF $2,800 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,700
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.339 0.237 0.161 30.7% 11.8% 22.1% 43.2% SS $3,200 SS $3,000 SS $5,500
8 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.295 0.249 0.194 30.3% 4.3% 30.4% 35.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
9 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.068 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 70.0% 50.0% P $7,700 P $9,700 P $18,400

Elite Plays – Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious