MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 19th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


St. Louis at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

St. Louis Atlanta
Article Image Jack Flaherty Article Image Touki Toussaint
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-100 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.259 0.282 34.5% 0.78 26.0% 43.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.216 0.305 27.3% 0.00 14.7% 68.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.274 35.7% 1.56 34.3% 41.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.294 34.8% 0.00 25.0% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jack Flaherty
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $11,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 4.62 6.33 21.3% 10.6% 47.6% 31.8% 15.9% 93.2 13.1%
2018 25 3.47 2.86 30.1% 9.3% 42.6% 35.1% 20.1% 92.6 13.4%
L14 3 4.70 2.81 26.8% 15.5% 42.5% 37.5% 15.0% 93.1 13.1%

We have four early games on the schedule today, but with the Mets/Phillies game starting at 6:05 ET, it is not included in the early slates on FanDuel or DraftKings. Flaherty is the clear number one in this slate and it’s not particularly close. In 25 starts this season, he owns a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. A matchup against the Braves doesn’t seem favorable, but their numbers against right-handed pitching have dropped off. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .302 with a strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Flaherty is the top pitcher of the early slate and an elite play in all formats.

Touki Toussaint
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $8,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 3 5.38 4.67 20.3% 17.6% 56.8% 31.1% 28.9% 93.4 8.3%
L14 2 5.87 6.35 21.2% 21.2% 62.1% 40.0% 30.0% 93.4 8.8%

Toussaint is making his fourth start of his major league career. While he doesn’t have the best numbers at this level, he did have some excellent numbers in the minors. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he had an FIP under three with a strikeout rate over 28%. Once you see the other options at pitcher, Toussaint actually becomes a decent SP2 target. He obviously doesn’t come without risk though, as the Cardinals have been red-hot at the plate recently.

Quick Breakdown: Toussaint is viable as an SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but are facing a rookie pitcher that has struggled a bit in his first three major league starts. With that said, I like to lean on the betting markets when a young pitcher is on the mound and this game is basically set as a pick ‘em. If anything, that makes me like Touki Toussaint a little more as an SP2. Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong, and Marcell Ozuna are all viable, but I see them as secondary plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.425 0.283 48.6% 15.3% 23.1% 21.7% 1B $3,900 1B/3B $5,100 N/A N/A
2 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.384 0.158 39.7% 7.7% 18.2% 47.9% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.355 0.192 39.3% 6.4% 24.1% 33.8% SS $3,400 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.357 0.140 44.8% 5.2% 17.8% 48.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.308 0.139 34.1% 10.0% 20.4% 35.2% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.351 0.161 44.6% 6.0% 12.9% 40.8% C $2,900 C $4,300 N/A N/A
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.309 0.149 28.0% 7.5% 15.3% 45.6% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.272 0.127 34.6% 6.8% 31.9% 43.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
9 Jack Flaherty RIGHT 0.192 0.000 26.1% 2.6% 36.8% 63.2% P $9,200 P $11,400 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.328 0.150 37.8% 7.5% 22.3% 42.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysMatt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna

StackabilityYELLOW

Atlanta

The Braves draw the worst matchup of the early slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate (30%), Jack Flaherty has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA this season. Freddie Freeman (.409 xwOBA against right-handed pitching) is the only hitter on my radar here and if you like him, you can actually play both Flaherty and Freeman in the same lineup. This is a strategy that is rarely used in short slates and it can help create leverage on the field while still playing the best pitcher on the board.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.397 0.282 48.3% 8.1% 25.4% 40.0% OF $4,500 OF $5,200 N/A N/A
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.297 0.188 34.1% 5.4% 17.6% 36.6% 2B $3,700 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.409 0.170 43.5% 11.7% 17.4% 34.3% 1B $4,300 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.388 0.153 41.4% 10.6% 9.2% 40.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.313 0.175 34.7% 10.7% 19.7% 45.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.304 0.140 32.0% 7.1% 12.4% 42.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.312 0.090 48.7% 7.0% 25.8% 42.0% C $2,300 C $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.286 0.159 34.9% 7.3% 22.4% 43.2% SS $2,400 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Touki Toussaint RIGHT 0.015 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% 100.0% P $6,000 P $8,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.302 0.151 35.3% 7.5% 25.0% 47.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysFreddie Freeman

StackabilityORANGE


Minnesota at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
Article Image Gabriel Moya Article Image Spencer Turnbull
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.254 15.6% 0.77 23.5% 34.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.000 0.181 50.0% 0.00 0.0% 100.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.322 41.3% 1.83 19.1% 38.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.00 100.0% 0.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gabriel Moya
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 28 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 4.57 4.26 19.2% 7.7% 31.6% 26.3% 15.8% 90.8 12.4%
2018 2 4.18 4.88 20.7% 8.9% 36.8% 32.6% 20.0% 89.7 10.0%
L14 1 6.67 2.45 6.3% 18.8% 58.3% 75.0% 16.7% 89.2 6.4%

Moya will be making his fourth career major league start, but as with many teams in baseball right now, the Twins will be employing a bullpen game against the Tigers. In other words, Moya will only pitch an inning or two. The plan will likely be for Kohl Stewart or Tyler Duffey to follow Moya, but that hasn’t been confirmed, so I wouldn’t try to roster any of the Twins’ pitcher in this one.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid all Twins’ pitchers against the Tigers, even though the matchup is enticing.

Spencer Turnbull
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 0 -0.68 0.00 33.3% 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 95.7 18.2%
L14 0 -0.68 0.00 33.3% 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 95.7 18.2%

Turnbull will be making his first career major league start today against the Twins. He did make a relief appearance last week, but this will be his first start. In 21 starts over Double-A and Triple-A earlier this season, he posted an FIP around 3.00 with a strikeout rate close to 27%. He certainly provides some upside at this price point and as I mentioned earlier, the search for an SP2 is tough. In terms of betting markets, the difference between Turnbull and Toussaint is that Turnbull is a slight underdog and playing in the game with the higher total (9.0 runs).

Quick Breakdown: Turnbull is viable as an SP2, but I prefer Toussaint if only building a single lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have been significantly better against right-handed pitching than they have been against southpaws and they get to face an inexperienced righty today in Spencer Turnbull. While his numbers in the minor leagues have been great, the majors are typically a different animal for most young pitchers. Debuts don’t often go the way pitchers dream growing up. Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Robbie Grossman, and Jake Cave are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.388 0.109 45.6% 10.2% 14.4% 51.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.332 0.123 29.4% 9.3% 15.8% 37.9% SS $3,500 SS $4,100 N/A N/A
3 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.333 0.213 37.9% 5.7% 17.5% 32.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.313 0.102 34.2% 10.9% 17.9% 40.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.300 0.206 47.8% 10.2% 38.4% 45.0% 3B $2,800 1B/3B $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Jake Cave LEFT 0.368 0.216 38.6% 6.0% 30.3% 45.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.278 0.067 29.0% 8.6% 20.6% 50.0% 2B $2,400 2B $2,800 N/A N/A
8 Max Kepler LEFT 0.334 0.192 37.6% 12.5% 14.2% 39.9% OF $2,300 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
9 Willians Astudillo RIGHT 0.324 0.216 24.3% 2.6% 0.0% 40.5% C $2,500 3B/C $3,500 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.330 0.160 36.0% 8.4% 18.8% 42.5%

Elite PlaysJorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Robbie Grossman, Jake Cave

Secondary PlaysJoe Mauer

StackabilityYELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers will open the game against Gabriel Moya and likely face Kohl Stewart or Tyler Duffey for the bulk of the innings. However, the Twins could decide to roll out a bunch of relievers for one-inning stints, so trying to predict matchups is a little pointless. Rather than looking at matchups, we should look at each hitter’s talent. The three that stand out in this lineup are Jeimer Candelario, Christin Stewart, and Nick Castellanos.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.336 0.210 39.4% 6.7% 26.0% 48.5% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Christin Stewart LEFT 0.333 0.000 0.0% 40.0% 20.0% 100.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.399 0.206 47.7% 8.1% 19.5% 42.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.352 0.145 29.0% 4.5% 9.1% 41.2% C $2,200 1B $3,000 N/A N/A
5 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.105 0.000 15.4% 0.0% 27.8% 46.2% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Ronny Rodriguez RIGHT 0.288 0.180 31.7% 1.9% 20.8% 36.8% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,000 N/A N/A
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.347 0.112 31.9% 6.7% 27.6% 41.2% C $2,000 C $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Dawel Lugo RIGHT 0.189 0.000 12.5% 9.1% 18.2% 75.0% 2B $2,000 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Victor Reyes RIGHT 0.233 0.054 29.6% 0.0% 27.0% 44.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.287 0.101 26.4% 8.6% 21.8% 52.8%

Elite PlaysJeimer Candelario, Christin Stewart, Nick Castellanos

Secondary PlaysJames McCann (DK)

StackabilityYELLOW


Tampa Bay at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Texas
Article Image Diego Castillo Article Image Yohander Mendez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -135 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.261 0.324 49.0% 1.27 28.6% 42.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.302 11.1% 0.00 7.7% 77.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.230 0.277 34.3% 0.31 27.4% 45.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.282 33.3% 1.15 15.6% 29.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Diego Castillo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 27 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 8 3.38 3.24 27.9% 9.1% 44.3% 40.2% 18.9% 97.4 13.4%
L14 4 2.22 1.13 40.7% 7.4% 28.6% 35.7% 28.6% 99.4 13.7%

Castillo has been terrific out of the bullpen this season. While he will technically get the start, this is another bullpen game for the Rays. Ryan Yarbrough is the pitcher of interest here, as he is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings today against the Rangers. Yarbrough is a fairly talented lefty that is squaring off against a Rangers’ offense that has been dreadful against southpaws all season. This isn’t the best ballpark for pitchers, but SP2 is ugly in this early slate. Dare I say Yarbrough is the safest of the bunch?

Quick Breakdown: Castillo is an easy fade, but Yarbrough is viable as an SP2 in all formats.

Yohander Mendez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 5.00 5.11 13.5% 5.8% 34.1% 31.7% 19.5% 92.5 8.4%
2018 3 5.61 3.86 14.3% 11.7% 36.8% 29.8% 22.8% 92.1 6.6%
L14 1 5.32 2.00 22.9% 17.1% 38.1% 14.3% 33.3% 91.7 9.4%

Mendez is the only young pitcher taking the mound in the early slate that doesn’t have great numbers in the minors this season. In 12 Triple-A starts, he posted a 6.27 FIP with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 9%. He’s pitching at home in the best hitting environment of the slate and he’s facing a Rays’ offense that is certainly capable of scoring double-digit runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mendez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a significant ballpark boost playing in Texas. While their offense has been a bit of a letdown in the first two games of this series, they have had a ton of baserunners. They just haven’t been able to string together hits. Hopefully, that will change today against Yohander Mendez, who did not fare at the Triple-A level earlier this season. This is the top offense to stack and individually, there are a lot of elite plays. It just depends on what this lineup looks like.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.296 0.079 24.6% 7.0% 20.9% 57.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.455 0.141 52.7% 15.0% 20.8% 50.0% OF $3,400 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.322 0.057 31.6% 10.8% 18.0% 58.2% 3B $3,200 3B $4,200 N/A N/A
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.359 0.235 42.9% 6.8% 28.6% 40.7% 1B $3,200 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.228 0.126 16.7% 6.3% 29.2% 53.4% OF $2,800 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
6 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.266 0.106 41.0% 6.9% 38.9% 51.3% SS $3,000 SS $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Brandon Lowe LEFT 0.377 0.400 18.2% 11.8% 23.5% 36.4% 2B $3,000 2B/OF $4,000 N/A N/A
8 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.317 0.131 29.1% 4.1% 22.8% 28.6% OF $2,200 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
9 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.240 0.023 35.9% 6.3% 12.5% 42.1% C $2,000 C $2,600 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.318 0.144 32.5% 8.3% 23.9% 46.4%

Elite PlaysMallex Smith, Tommy Pham, C.J. Cron

Secondary PlaysMatt Duffy, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe

StackabilityGREEN

Texas

The Rangers start the game against Diego Castillo (tough matchup) and then face Ryan Yarbrough (fairly tough matchup). Since the bulk of the innings will be against a left-handed pitcher, I don’t have a ton of interest in this offense. They have struggled mightily against southpaws, likely because their best hitters all bat from the left side of the plate. It’s scary fading the Rangers in Texas in a three-game slate, but that’s exactly my plan.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.420 0.214 45.6% 15.6% 21.3% 48.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.347 0.214 46.7% 8.1% 24.9% 39.0% 2B $3,600 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.284 0.095 33.0% 5.9% 15.8% 53.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.379 0.184 39.8% 9.7% 16.9% 53.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
5 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.356 0.171 43.9% 6.9% 19.2% 37.4% 3B $3,100 3B $4,800 N/A N/A
6 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.344 0.215 38.0% 8.8% 14.4% 44.3% 3B $3,500 3B/SS $4,900 N/A N/A
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.383 0.266 47.7% 15.1% 33.8% 29.4% OF $3,700 1B/OF $4,600 N/A N/A
8 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.324 0.198 34.2% 9.1% 29.2% 37.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.278 0.074 31.4% 5.1% 19.8% 52.2% C $2,300 3B/C $3,700 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.346 0.181 40.0% 9.4% 21.7% 43.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysAdrian Beltre

StackabilityORANGE


Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.


NY Mets at Philadelphia – 6:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
Article Image Noah Syndergaard Article Image Zach Eflin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-108 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.278 22.4% 0.25 21.9% 46.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.338 30.5% 1.56 21.3% 37.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.278 22.0% 0.72 26.8% 52.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.281 27.2% 0.92 22.1% 42.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $10,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 7 2.74 2.97 27.4% 2.4% 57.6% 30.2% 16.3% 98.3 13.9%
2018 22 3.50 3.26 24.2% 6.0% 49.1% 22.2% 24.0% 97.5 14.0%
L14 2 5.47 2.63 16.7% 13.3% 42.9% 23.8% 14.3% 97.5 9.4%

I wish this game was included in the early slate or in the main slate for that matter. I would love to play Syndergaard at this price point. In 22 starts this season, he owns a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and an elite soft contact rate of 24%. His recent form hasn’t been great, but there are plenty of strikeouts in the Phillies’ offense. In fact, their projected lineup has an average k-rate of 26% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: If you are playing the single-entry showdown slate, Syndergaard is the preferred pitching target.

Zach Eflin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $7,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 11 5.08 6.16 12.5% 4.3% 44.1% 33.3% 16.7% 92.7 7.3%
2018 22 4.04 4.26 21.7% 6.1% 40.3% 28.7% 20.8% 94.3 10.0%
L14 2 4.43 6.75 22.0% 9.8% 40.7% 25.9% 22.2% 94.4 11.9%

Eflin has been serviceable this season, posting a 4.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 6%. Tonight’s game against the Mets is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of only 7.5 runs. Both pitchers are actually viable if you are playing in the showdown slate because I’m not expecting many fireworks offensively. From a matchup standpoint, the Mets aren’t exactly an ideal offense for Eflin to face. He has struggled against left-handed hitters and the Mets have a left-handed heavy offense.

Quick Breakdown: In a full slate, Eflin would be a fade. In the single-game slate, he’s viable if you want to pair him with Syndergaard.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have an easy matchup to break down. Zach Eflin has been tough on right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .281 xwOBA with a 22% strikeout rate. His struggles have come against lefties, as he has allowed a .338 xwOBA and a 31% hard contact rate. This brings Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, and Dominic Smith all into play, as they each boast a .155+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.291 0.138 28.0% 4.8% 18.9% 49.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.318 0.157 29.5% 4.1% 9.6% 39.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.345 0.180 36.5% 14.8% 22.2% 40.9% OF $3,600 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.372 0.161 35.1% 11.9% 18.7% 29.8% OF $2,500 1B/OF $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.347 0.221 43.7% 9.2% 20.7% 34.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.379 0.258 36.6% 14.9% 23.2% 40.3% OF $3,700 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
7 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.278 0.235 39.1% 2.0% 33.7% 28.1% 1B $2,100 1B/OF $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Tomas Nido RIGHT 0.240 0.081 33.3% 3.1% 31.3% 50.0% C $2,000 C $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.158 0.032 23.1% 0.0% 60.6% 45.5% P $10,000 P $10,500 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.303 0.163 33.9% 7.2% 26.5% 39.8%

Elite PlaysMichael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Secondary PlaysJeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith

StackabilityYELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a difficult matchup against Noah Syndergaard. He has an above-average strikeout rate (24%), an elite soft contact rate (24%), and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA this season. The one weakness he has is his inability to hold runners (this seems to be a trend for Mets’ pitchers). The Phillies may not have many baserunners tonight, but they will be extremely aggressive on the base paths. Cesar Hernandez and Roman Quinn have the most stolen base upside, but Nick Williams and Rhys Hoskins are capable base stealers as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.314 0.126 22.9% 13.4% 22.9% 41.6% 2B $2,500 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.379 0.288 37.4% 11.5% 24.2% 28.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.354 0.237 42.1% 7.1% 21.4% 38.8% 3B $2,500 2B/SS $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.355 0.169 40.1% 8.6% 19.3% 56.4% C $2,900 C $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.370 0.184 34.4% 17.7% 15.7% 38.5% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.365 0.194 31.5% 7.7% 22.4% 42.3% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.304 0.181 25.8% 7.5% 19.5% 39.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
8 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.335 0.180 29.0% 7.8% 27.2% 38.3% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,900 N/A N/A
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.103 0.091 18.8% 0.0% 56.8% 81.8% P $6,800 P $7,600 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.320 0.183 31.3% 9.0% 25.5% 45.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysCesar Hernandez, Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins

StackabilityORANGE


Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
Article Image David Price Article Image Luis Severino
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-145 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.313 29.3% 1.33 23.7% 45.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.317 36.6% 0.70 28.9% 40.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.326 31.9% 1.04 25.4% 39.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.308 33.2% 1.14 28.0% 41.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $10,300 Salary: $19,700
Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 11 4.05 3.38 24.0% 7.6% 39.9% 32.9% 20.7% 94.3 11.7%
2018 28 3.68 3.42 25.1% 6.4% 40.3% 31.5% 19.3% 92.7 9.7%
L14 2 2.41 1.35 36.2% 4.3% 32.1% 32.1% 21.4% 92.8 10.4%

Price has turned into an ace in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, he has a SIERA just above three with a strikeout rate of 27%. One of his toughest tests will come tonight against the Yankees in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. New York’s projected lineup boasts a .379 xwOBA and a .242 ISO against southpaws. With no shortage of pitching options in the ten-game main slate, I will be looking elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: It wouldn’t surprise me to see Price pitch well, but I can’t pay a premium for him in this matchup.

Luis Severino
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $9,900 Salary: $19,400
Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4% 97.6 13.0%
2018 30 3.22 3.46 28.4% 5.8% 41.2% 34.7% 18.9% 97.7 12.4%
L14 2 3.20 6.48 22.9% 2.9% 50.0% 53.9% 11.5% 97.4 12.7%

Severino has been a big disappointment over the last month of play, but his advanced statistics have been solid all year. In 30 starts, he owns a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. A matchup against the Red Sox is never appealing, as their projected lineup boasts a .373 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 19% against right-handed pitching. With that said, Severino has had plenty of success in this matchup in the past, holding Boston’s current roster to a .291 wOBA with 58 strikeouts in 233 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: I will likely be fading both pitchers in this game, but Severino has some appeal in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are facing an elite pitcher that has fared very well in this matchup in the past. As mentioned above, Luis Severino has had the Red Sox number with one exception — Andrew Benintendi. He is 11-for-24 with six extra-base hits and three walks against Severino in his career. I’m not the biggest BvP guy, but those numbers are hard to overlook. He should come in at sub-10% ownership, which makes him an intriguing one-off target in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.442 0.257 43.8% 11.8% 14.6% 33.7% OF $4,400 OF $5,500 RF $10,000
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.393 0.189 29.6% 12.1% 13.8% 38.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 LF $8,900
3 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.407 0.212 36.7% 10.8% 21.3% 40.9% 1B $2,700 1B $3,700 1B $7,700
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.448 0.325 44.4% 11.1% 22.4% 44.1% OF $4,300 OF $5,000 RF $9,600
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.377 0.255 37.6% 6.6% 16.7% 46.5% SS $3,500 SS $4,600 SS $9,300
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.327 0.199 36.1% 8.0% 24.4% 44.0% 3B $2,600 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
7 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.332 0.179 30.7% 8.2% 12.3% 36.6% 2B $2,400 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.252 0.116 26.0% 3.1% 26.8% 40.5% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $4,700
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.381 0.183 42.1% 10.0% 22.4% 38.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
Team Averages 0.373 0.213 36.3% 9.1% 19.4% 40.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysAndrew Benintendi (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees can’t catch the Red Sox for the AL East crown, but they are in good position to make the wild card game. Tonight’s matchup against David Price is certainly subpar, but how often do we get to play the Yankees at home at low ownership? Price has been terrific over the last two months, but has allowed a .326 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the season. At the very least, Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks are worth a look as low-owned tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.386 0.200 43.4% 11.7% 21.5% 41.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 RF $8,300
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.439 0.271 47.5% 22.4% 29.6% 32.2% OF $4,000 OF $5,100 RF $9,400
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.441 0.331 57.1% 11.5% 25.6% 40.8% OF $4,600 OF $4,800 RF $8,700
4 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.386 0.264 46.5% 12.1% 19.5% 36.0% OF $2,900 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
5 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.313 0.217 30.8% 6.5% 17.4% 41.9% 3B $4,300 3B $4,000 3B $7,200
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.292 0.165 30.8% 7.4% 12.8% 46.0% SS $4,100 SS $4,800 SS $9,200
7 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.411 0.239 32.7% 14.5% 22.9% 34.6% C $3,100 C $3,900 C $7,700
8 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.365 0.162 38.5% 5.1% 28.2% 34.6% 1B $3,400 1B $3,500 1B $6,400
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.382 0.330 48.0% 10.1% 26.9% 28.0% 2B $3,500 2B $4,000 2B $7,400
Team Averages 0.379 0.242 41.7% 11.3% 22.7% 37.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysAndrew McCutchen (GPP), Aaron Judge (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Aaron Hicks (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE / YELLOW


Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious