MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 19th
Jump to Page 1 2 3
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
St. Louis at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET
St. Louis | Atlanta | ||||||||||||||
Jack Flaherty | Touki Toussaint | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
ATL-100 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.259 | 0.282 | 34.5% | 0.78 | 26.0% | 43.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.216 | 0.305 | 27.3% | 0.00 | 14.7% | 68.2% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.286 | 0.274 | 35.7% | 1.56 | 34.3% | 41.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.329 | 0.294 | 34.8% | 0.00 | 25.0% | 45.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jack Flaherty | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,200 | Salary: | $11,400 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 5 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 28 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 5 | 4.62 | 6.33 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 47.6% | 31.8% | 15.9% | 93.2 | 13.1% | |
2018 | 25 | 3.47 | 2.86 | 30.1% | 9.3% | 42.6% | 35.1% | 20.1% | 92.6 | 13.4% | |
L14 | 3 | 4.70 | 2.81 | 26.8% | 15.5% | 42.5% | 37.5% | 15.0% | 93.1 | 13.1% |
We have four early games on the schedule today, but with the Mets/Phillies game starting at 6:05 ET, it is not included in the early slates on FanDuel or DraftKings. Flaherty is the clear number one in this slate and it’s not particularly close. In 25 starts this season, he owns a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. A matchup against the Braves doesn’t seem favorable, but their numbers against right-handed pitching have dropped off. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .302 with a strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Flaherty is the top pitcher of the early slate and an elite play in all formats.
Touki Toussaint | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 20 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 28 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 3 | 5.38 | 4.67 | 20.3% | 17.6% | 56.8% | 31.1% | 28.9% | 93.4 | 8.3% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.87 | 6.35 | 21.2% | 21.2% | 62.1% | 40.0% | 30.0% | 93.4 | 8.8% |
Toussaint is making his fourth start of his major league career. While he doesn’t have the best numbers at this level, he did have some excellent numbers in the minors. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he had an FIP under three with a strikeout rate over 28%. Once you see the other options at pitcher, Toussaint actually becomes a decent SP2 target. He obviously doesn’t come without risk though, as the Cardinals have been red-hot at the plate recently.
Quick Breakdown: Toussaint is viable as an SP2 in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
The Cardinals are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but are facing a rookie pitcher that has struggled a bit in his first three major league starts. With that said, I like to lean on the betting markets when a young pitcher is on the mound and this game is basically set as a pick ‘em. If anything, that makes me like Touki Toussaint a little more as an SP2. Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong, and Marcell Ozuna are all viable, but I see them as secondary plays at their respective positions.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.425 | 0.283 | 48.6% | 15.3% | 23.1% | 21.7% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B/3B | $5,100 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Jose Martinez | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.158 | 39.7% | 7.7% | 18.2% | 47.9% | OF | $3,500 | 1B/OF | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Paul DeJong | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.192 | 39.3% | 6.4% | 24.1% | 33.8% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,500 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.140 | 44.8% | 5.2% | 17.8% | 48.4% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Jedd Gyorko | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.139 | 34.1% | 10.0% | 20.4% | 35.2% | 3B | $2,800 | 2B/3B | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Yadier Molina | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.161 | 44.6% | 6.0% | 12.9% | 40.8% | C | $2,900 | C | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Kolten Wong | LEFT | 0.309 | 0.149 | 28.0% | 7.5% | 15.3% | 45.6% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Harrison Bader | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.127 | 34.6% | 6.8% | 31.9% | 43.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Jack Flaherty | RIGHT | 0.192 | 0.000 | 26.1% | 2.6% | 36.8% | 63.2% | P | $9,200 | P | $11,400 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.328 | 0.150 | 37.8% | 7.5% | 22.3% | 42.2% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna
Stackability – YELLOW
Atlanta
The Braves draw the worst matchup of the early slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate (30%), Jack Flaherty has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA this season. Freddie Freeman (.409 xwOBA against right-handed pitching) is the only hitter on my radar here and if you like him, you can actually play both Flaherty and Freeman in the same lineup. This is a strategy that is rarely used in short slates and it can help create leverage on the field while still playing the best pitcher on the board.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ronald Acuna | RIGHT | 0.397 | 0.282 | 48.3% | 8.1% | 25.4% | 40.0% | OF | $4,500 | OF | $5,200 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Ozzie Albies | SWITCH | 0.297 | 0.188 | 34.1% | 5.4% | 17.6% | 36.6% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Freddie Freeman | LEFT | 0.409 | 0.170 | 43.5% | 11.7% | 17.4% | 34.3% | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Nick Markakis | LEFT | 0.388 | 0.153 | 41.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 40.8% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Johan Camargo | SWITCH | 0.313 | 0.175 | 34.7% | 10.7% | 19.7% | 45.6% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Ender Inciarte | LEFT | 0.304 | 0.140 | 32.0% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 42.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Tyler Flowers | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.090 | 48.7% | 7.0% | 25.8% | 42.0% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Dansby Swanson | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.159 | 34.9% | 7.3% | 22.4% | 43.2% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Touki Toussaint | RIGHT | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 75.0% | 100.0% | P | $6,000 | P | $8,100 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.302 | 0.151 | 35.3% | 7.5% | 25.0% | 47.2% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman
Stackability – ORANGE
Minnesota at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||||||||||
Gabriel Moya | Spencer Turnbull | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
MIN-115 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.287 | 0.254 | 15.6% | 0.77 | 23.5% | 34.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.000 | 0.181 | 50.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 100.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.317 | 0.322 | 41.3% | 1.83 | 19.1% | 38.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Gabriel Moya | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,000 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 24 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 28 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 0 | 4.57 | 4.26 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 31.6% | 26.3% | 15.8% | 90.8 | 12.4% | |
2018 | 2 | 4.18 | 4.88 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 36.8% | 32.6% | 20.0% | 89.7 | 10.0% | |
L14 | 1 | 6.67 | 2.45 | 6.3% | 18.8% | 58.3% | 75.0% | 16.7% | 89.2 | 6.4% |
Moya will be making his fourth career major league start, but as with many teams in baseball right now, the Twins will be employing a bullpen game against the Tigers. In other words, Moya will only pitch an inning or two. The plan will likely be for Kohl Stewart or Tyler Duffey to follow Moya, but that hasn’t been confirmed, so I wouldn’t try to roster any of the Twins’ pitcher in this one.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid all Twins’ pitchers against the Tigers, even though the matchup is enticing.
Spencer Turnbull | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 24 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 28 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.00 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 95.7 | 18.2% | |
L14 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.00 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 95.7 | 18.2% |
Turnbull will be making his first career major league start today against the Twins. He did make a relief appearance last week, but this will be his first start. In 21 starts over Double-A and Triple-A earlier this season, he posted an FIP around 3.00 with a strikeout rate close to 27%. He certainly provides some upside at this price point and as I mentioned earlier, the search for an SP2 is tough. In terms of betting markets, the difference between Turnbull and Toussaint is that Turnbull is a slight underdog and playing in the game with the higher total (9.0 runs).
Quick Breakdown: Turnbull is viable as an SP2, but I prefer Toussaint if only building a single lineup.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins have been significantly better against right-handed pitching than they have been against southpaws and they get to face an inexperienced righty today in Spencer Turnbull. While his numbers in the minor leagues have been great, the majors are typically a different animal for most young pitchers. Debuts don’t often go the way pitchers dream growing up. Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Robbie Grossman, and Jake Cave are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.388 | 0.109 | 45.6% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 51.3% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.332 | 0.123 | 29.4% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 37.9% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.213 | 37.9% | 5.7% | 17.5% | 32.3% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,800 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.313 | 0.102 | 34.2% | 10.9% | 17.9% | 40.3% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.206 | 47.8% | 10.2% | 38.4% | 45.0% | 3B | $2,800 | 1B/3B | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Jake Cave | LEFT | 0.368 | 0.216 | 38.6% | 6.0% | 30.3% | 45.2% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Logan Forsythe | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.067 | 29.0% | 8.6% | 20.6% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.192 | 37.6% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 39.9% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Willians Astudillo | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.216 | 24.3% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 40.5% | C | $2,500 | 3B/C | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.330 | 0.160 | 36.0% | 8.4% | 18.8% | 42.5% |
Elite Plays – Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Robbie Grossman, Jake Cave
Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer
Stackability – YELLOW
Detroit
The Tigers will open the game against Gabriel Moya and likely face Kohl Stewart or Tyler Duffey for the bulk of the innings. However, the Twins could decide to roll out a bunch of relievers for one-inning stints, so trying to predict matchups is a little pointless. Rather than looking at matchups, we should look at each hitter’s talent. The three that stand out in this lineup are Jeimer Candelario, Christin Stewart, and Nick Castellanos.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jeimer Candelario | SWITCH | 0.336 | 0.210 | 39.4% | 6.7% | 26.0% | 48.5% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Christin Stewart | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 100.0% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.399 | 0.206 | 47.7% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 42.1% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.352 | 0.145 | 29.0% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 41.2% | C | $2,200 | 1B | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Jim Adduci | LEFT | 0.105 | 0.000 | 15.4% | 0.0% | 27.8% | 46.2% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Ronny Rodriguez | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.180 | 31.7% | 1.9% | 20.8% | 36.8% | SS | $2,600 | 2B/SS | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
7 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.112 | 31.9% | 6.7% | 27.6% | 41.2% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Dawel Lugo | RIGHT | 0.189 | 0.000 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 75.0% | 2B | $2,000 | 2B | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Victor Reyes | RIGHT | 0.233 | 0.054 | 29.6% | 0.0% | 27.0% | 44.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.287 | 0.101 | 26.4% | 8.6% | 21.8% | 52.8% |
Elite Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Christin Stewart, Nick Castellanos
Secondary Plays – James McCann (DK)
Stackability – YELLOW
Tampa Bay at Texas – 2:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay | Texas | ||||||||||||||
Diego Castillo | Yohander Mendez | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TB -135 | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.261 | 0.324 | 49.0% | 1.27 | 28.6% | 42.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.362 | 0.302 | 11.1% | 0.00 | 7.7% | 77.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.230 | 0.277 | 34.3% | 0.31 | 27.4% | 45.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.277 | 0.282 | 33.3% | 1.15 | 15.6% | 29.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Diego Castillo | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,400 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 24 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 28 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 8 | 3.38 | 3.24 | 27.9% | 9.1% | 44.3% | 40.2% | 18.9% | 97.4 | 13.4% | |
L14 | 4 | 2.22 | 1.13 | 40.7% | 7.4% | 28.6% | 35.7% | 28.6% | 99.4 | 13.7% |
Castillo has been terrific out of the bullpen this season. While he will technically get the start, this is another bullpen game for the Rays. Ryan Yarbrough is the pitcher of interest here, as he is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings today against the Rangers. Yarbrough is a fairly talented lefty that is squaring off against a Rangers’ offense that has been dreadful against southpaws all season. This isn’t the best ballpark for pitchers, but SP2 is ugly in this early slate. Dare I say Yarbrough is the safest of the bunch?
Quick Breakdown: Castillo is an easy fade, but Yarbrough is viable as an SP2 in all formats.
Yohander Mendez | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 16 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 28 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 0 | 5.00 | 5.11 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 34.1% | 31.7% | 19.5% | 92.5 | 8.4% | |
2018 | 3 | 5.61 | 3.86 | 14.3% | 11.7% | 36.8% | 29.8% | 22.8% | 92.1 | 6.6% | |
L14 | 1 | 5.32 | 2.00 | 22.9% | 17.1% | 38.1% | 14.3% | 33.3% | 91.7 | 9.4% |
Mendez is the only young pitcher taking the mound in the early slate that doesn’t have great numbers in the minors this season. In 12 Triple-A starts, he posted a 6.27 FIP with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 9%. He’s pitching at home in the best hitting environment of the slate and he’s facing a Rays’ offense that is certainly capable of scoring double-digit runs.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mendez in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
The Rays see a significant ballpark boost playing in Texas. While their offense has been a bit of a letdown in the first two games of this series, they have had a ton of baserunners. They just haven’t been able to string together hits. Hopefully, that will change today against Yohander Mendez, who did not fare at the Triple-A level earlier this season. This is the top offense to stack and individually, there are a lot of elite plays. It just depends on what this lineup looks like.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.296 | 0.079 | 24.6% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 57.1% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Tommy Pham | RIGHT | 0.455 | 0.141 | 52.7% | 15.0% | 20.8% | 50.0% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $5,000 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.057 | 31.6% | 10.8% | 18.0% | 58.2% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
4 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.235 | 42.9% | 6.8% | 28.6% | 40.7% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.228 | 0.126 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 29.2% | 53.4% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Willy Adames | RIGHT | 0.266 | 0.106 | 41.0% | 6.9% | 38.9% | 51.3% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Brandon Lowe | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.400 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 23.5% | 36.4% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Carlos Gomez | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.131 | 29.1% | 4.1% | 22.8% | 28.6% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Jesus Sucre | RIGHT | 0.240 | 0.023 | 35.9% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 42.1% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,600 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.318 | 0.144 | 32.5% | 8.3% | 23.9% | 46.4% |
Elite Plays – Mallex Smith, Tommy Pham, C.J. Cron
Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe
Stackability – GREEN
Texas
The Rangers start the game against Diego Castillo (tough matchup) and then face Ryan Yarbrough (fairly tough matchup). Since the bulk of the innings will be against a left-handed pitcher, I don’t have a ton of interest in this offense. They have struggled mightily against southpaws, likely because their best hitters all bat from the left side of the plate. It’s scary fading the Rangers in Texas in a three-game slate, but that’s exactly my plan.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Shin-Soo Choo | LEFT | 0.420 | 0.214 | 45.6% | 15.6% | 21.3% | 48.2% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Rougned Odor | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.214 | 46.7% | 8.1% | 24.9% | 39.0% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Elvis Andrus | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.095 | 33.0% | 5.9% | 15.8% | 53.3% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Nomar Mazara | LEFT | 0.379 | 0.184 | 39.8% | 9.7% | 16.9% | 53.1% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Adrian Beltre | RIGHT | 0.356 | 0.171 | 43.9% | 6.9% | 19.2% | 37.4% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $4,800 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Jurickson Profar | SWITCH | 0.344 | 0.215 | 38.0% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 44.3% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B/SS | $4,900 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Joey Gallo | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.266 | 47.7% | 15.1% | 33.8% | 29.4% | OF | $3,700 | 1B/OF | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Ronald Guzman | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.198 | 34.2% | 9.1% | 29.2% | 37.0% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.074 | 31.4% | 5.1% | 19.8% | 52.2% | C | $2,300 | 3B/C | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.346 | 0.181 | 40.0% | 9.4% | 21.7% | 43.8% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre
Stackability – ORANGE
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.
NY Mets at Philadelphia – 6:05 PM ET
NY Mets | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
Noah Syndergaard | Zach Eflin | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYM-108 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.289 | 0.278 | 22.4% | 0.25 | 21.9% | 46.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.362 | 0.338 | 30.5% | 1.56 | 21.3% | 37.3% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.294 | 0.278 | 22.0% | 0.72 | 26.8% | 52.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.283 | 0.281 | 27.2% | 0.92 | 22.1% | 42.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Noah Syndergaard | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $10,000 | Salary: | $10,500 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 2 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 28 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 7 | 2.74 | 2.97 | 27.4% | 2.4% | 57.6% | 30.2% | 16.3% | 98.3 | 13.9% | |
2018 | 22 | 3.50 | 3.26 | 24.2% | 6.0% | 49.1% | 22.2% | 24.0% | 97.5 | 14.0% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.47 | 2.63 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 42.9% | 23.8% | 14.3% | 97.5 | 9.4% |
I wish this game was included in the early slate or in the main slate for that matter. I would love to play Syndergaard at this price point. In 22 starts this season, he owns a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and an elite soft contact rate of 24%. His recent form hasn’t been great, but there are plenty of strikeouts in the Phillies’ offense. In fact, their projected lineup has an average k-rate of 26% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: If you are playing the single-entry showdown slate, Syndergaard is the preferred pitching target.
Zach Eflin | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 17 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 28 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 11 | 5.08 | 6.16 | 12.5% | 4.3% | 44.1% | 33.3% | 16.7% | 92.7 | 7.3% | |
2018 | 22 | 4.04 | 4.26 | 21.7% | 6.1% | 40.3% | 28.7% | 20.8% | 94.3 | 10.0% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.43 | 6.75 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 40.7% | 25.9% | 22.2% | 94.4 | 11.9% |
Eflin has been serviceable this season, posting a 4.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 6%. Tonight’s game against the Mets is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of only 7.5 runs. Both pitchers are actually viable if you are playing in the showdown slate because I’m not expecting many fireworks offensively. From a matchup standpoint, the Mets aren’t exactly an ideal offense for Eflin to face. He has struggled against left-handed hitters and the Mets have a left-handed heavy offense.
Quick Breakdown: In a full slate, Eflin would be a fade. In the single-game slate, he’s viable if you want to pair him with Syndergaard.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets have an easy matchup to break down. Zach Eflin has been tough on right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .281 xwOBA with a 22% strikeout rate. His struggles have come against lefties, as he has allowed a .338 xwOBA and a 31% hard contact rate. This brings Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, and Dominic Smith all into play, as they each boast a .155+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.138 | 28.0% | 4.8% | 18.9% | 49.2% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Jeff McNeil | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.157 | 29.5% | 4.1% | 9.6% | 39.5% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Michael Conforto | LEFT | 0.345 | 0.180 | 36.5% | 14.8% | 22.2% | 40.9% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $5,100 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.161 | 35.1% | 11.9% | 18.7% | 29.8% | OF | $2,500 | 1B/OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.221 | 43.7% | 9.2% | 20.7% | 34.5% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.379 | 0.258 | 36.6% | 14.9% | 23.2% | 40.3% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $5,000 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.278 | 0.235 | 39.1% | 2.0% | 33.7% | 28.1% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B/OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Tomas Nido | RIGHT | 0.240 | 0.081 | 33.3% | 3.1% | 31.3% | 50.0% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Noah Syndergaard | RIGHT | 0.158 | 0.032 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 60.6% | 45.5% | P | $10,000 | P | $10,500 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.303 | 0.163 | 33.9% | 7.2% | 26.5% | 39.8% |
Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce
Secondary Plays – Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith
Stackability – YELLOW
Philadelphia
The Phillies draw a difficult matchup against Noah Syndergaard. He has an above-average strikeout rate (24%), an elite soft contact rate (24%), and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA this season. The one weakness he has is his inability to hold runners (this seems to be a trend for Mets’ pitchers). The Phillies may not have many baserunners tonight, but they will be extremely aggressive on the base paths. Cesar Hernandez and Roman Quinn have the most stolen base upside, but Nick Williams and Rhys Hoskins are capable base stealers as well.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.314 | 0.126 | 22.9% | 13.4% | 22.9% | 41.6% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.288 | 37.4% | 11.5% | 24.2% | 28.3% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.237 | 42.1% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 38.8% | 3B | $2,500 | 2B/SS | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.169 | 40.1% | 8.6% | 19.3% | 56.4% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.370 | 0.184 | 34.4% | 17.7% | 15.7% | 38.5% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.194 | 31.5% | 7.7% | 22.4% | 42.3% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.304 | 0.181 | 25.8% | 7.5% | 19.5% | 39.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
8 | J.P. Crawford | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.180 | 29.0% | 7.8% | 27.2% | 38.3% | SS | $2,300 | 3B/SS | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Zach Eflin | RIGHT | 0.103 | 0.091 | 18.8% | 0.0% | 56.8% | 81.8% | P | $6,800 | P | $7,600 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.320 | 0.183 | 31.3% | 9.0% | 25.5% | 45.1% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins
Stackability – ORANGE
Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
Boston | NY Yankees | ||||||||||||||
David Price | Luis Severino | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYY-145 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.303 | 0.313 | 29.3% | 1.33 | 23.7% | 45.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.305 | 0.317 | 36.6% | 0.70 | 28.9% | 40.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.288 | 0.326 | 31.9% | 1.04 | 25.4% | 39.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.279 | 0.308 | 33.2% | 1.14 | 28.0% | 41.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
David Price | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $10,300 | Salary: | $19,700 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 4 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 11 | 4.05 | 3.38 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 39.9% | 32.9% | 20.7% | 94.3 | 11.7% | |
2018 | 28 | 3.68 | 3.42 | 25.1% | 6.4% | 40.3% | 31.5% | 19.3% | 92.7 | 9.7% | |
L14 | 2 | 2.41 | 1.35 | 36.2% | 4.3% | 32.1% | 32.1% | 21.4% | 92.8 | 10.4% |
Price has turned into an ace in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, he has a SIERA just above three with a strikeout rate of 27%. One of his toughest tests will come tonight against the Yankees in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. New York’s projected lineup boasts a .379 xwOBA and a .242 ISO against southpaws. With no shortage of pitching options in the ten-game main slate, I will be looking elsewhere.
Quick Breakdown: It wouldn’t surprise me to see Price pitch well, but I can’t pay a premium for him in this matchup.
Luis Severino | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,100 | Salary: | $9,900 | Salary: | $19,400 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 6 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 31 | 3.25 | 2.98 | 29.4% | 6.5% | 50.6% | 28.5% | 19.4% | 97.6 | 13.0% | |
2018 | 30 | 3.22 | 3.46 | 28.4% | 5.8% | 41.2% | 34.7% | 18.9% | 97.7 | 12.4% | |
L14 | 2 | 3.20 | 6.48 | 22.9% | 2.9% | 50.0% | 53.9% | 11.5% | 97.4 | 12.7% |
Severino has been a big disappointment over the last month of play, but his advanced statistics have been solid all year. In 30 starts, he owns a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. A matchup against the Red Sox is never appealing, as their projected lineup boasts a .373 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 19% against right-handed pitching. With that said, Severino has had plenty of success in this matchup in the past, holding Boston’s current roster to a .291 wOBA with 58 strikeouts in 233 plate appearances.
Quick Breakdown: I will likely be fading both pitchers in this game, but Severino has some appeal in tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox are facing an elite pitcher that has fared very well in this matchup in the past. As mentioned above, Luis Severino has had the Red Sox number with one exception — Andrew Benintendi. He is 11-for-24 with six extra-base hits and three walks against Severino in his career. I’m not the biggest BvP guy, but those numbers are hard to overlook. He should come in at sub-10% ownership, which makes him an intriguing one-off target in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.442 | 0.257 | 43.8% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 33.7% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,000 |
2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.393 | 0.189 | 29.6% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 38.8% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $8,900 |
3 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.407 | 0.212 | 36.7% | 10.8% | 21.3% | 40.9% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,700 |
4 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.448 | 0.325 | 44.4% | 11.1% | 22.4% | 44.1% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $9,600 |
5 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.255 | 37.6% | 6.6% | 16.7% | 46.5% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $4,600 | SS | $9,300 |
6 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.199 | 36.1% | 8.0% | 24.4% | 44.0% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,800 |
7 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.179 | 30.7% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 36.6% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,500 |
8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.252 | 0.116 | 26.0% | 3.1% | 26.8% | 40.5% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,500 | C | $4,700 |
9 | Jackie Bradley | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.183 | 42.1% | 10.0% | 22.4% | 38.6% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,700 |
Team Averages | 0.373 | 0.213 | 36.3% | 9.1% | 19.4% | 40.4% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
NY Yankees
The Yankees can’t catch the Red Sox for the AL East crown, but they are in good position to make the wild card game. Tonight’s matchup against David Price is certainly subpar, but how often do we get to play the Yankees at home at low ownership? Price has been terrific over the last two months, but has allowed a .326 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the season. At the very least, Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks are worth a look as low-owned tournament plays.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.200 | 43.4% | 11.7% | 21.5% | 41.2% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $8,300 |
2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.439 | 0.271 | 47.5% | 22.4% | 29.6% | 32.2% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,100 | RF | $9,400 |
3 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.441 | 0.331 | 57.1% | 11.5% | 25.6% | 40.8% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $4,800 | RF | $8,700 |
4 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.386 | 0.264 | 46.5% | 12.1% | 19.5% | 36.0% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,200 |
5 | Miguel Andujar | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.217 | 30.8% | 6.5% | 17.4% | 41.9% | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,200 |
6 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.292 | 0.165 | 30.8% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 46.0% | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,800 | SS | $9,200 |
7 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.411 | 0.239 | 32.7% | 14.5% | 22.9% | 34.6% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,900 | C | $7,700 |
8 | Luke Voit | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.162 | 38.5% | 5.1% | 28.2% | 34.6% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,400 |
9 | Gleyber Torres | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.330 | 48.0% | 10.1% | 26.9% | 28.0% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,400 |
Team Averages | 0.379 | 0.242 | 41.7% | 11.3% | 22.7% | 37.3% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen (GPP), Aaron Judge (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Aaron Hicks (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.