MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-05 19:48:13

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Boston								Atlanta
			Hector Velazquez							Mike Foltynewicz
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.361	0.382	30.2%	1.71	14.7%	37.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	0.309	34.2%	1.17	27.2%	41.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.312	30.3%	0.00	14.2%	60.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.260	0.276	35.2%	0.61	28.7%	43.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Hector Velazquez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			27 of 28	Salary Rank:			20 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	3	4.32	2.92	19.8%	7.3%	42.9%	30.0%	11.4%	89.6	7.9%
	2018	6	4.51	3.15	14.4%	7.4%	50.2%	30.3%	16.8%	90.8	7.8%
	L14	2	4.61	5.59	18.4%	12.2%	59.4%	40.6%	9.4%	90.6	7.7%

We have a light early slate on tap Wednesday. We start with the Red Sox and Braves in a game that is currently without a line and total from Vegas (as of Tuesday night). Velazquez has a low ERA this season, but his advanced numbers suggest some regression. In his six starts, he has a 4.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. That’s not going to get the job done in DFS, even in a small two-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Velazquez in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Foltynewicz
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,800	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			4 of 28	Salary Rank:			8 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	4.57	4.79	20.7%	8.5%	39.4%	28.1%	15.8%	95.3	9.4%
	2018	26	3.69	2.80	27.9%	9.3%	42.3%	34.7%	19.2%	96.5	10.2%
	L14	2	3.86	3.75	25.5%	7.8%	39.4%	36.4%	15.2%	96.5	9.2%

Foltynewicz typically wouldn’t be on my radar, but we only have two games in the early slate. Corey Kluber is the clear SP1, but if you are playing on a multi-pitcher site, then you will have to choose from Foltynewicz, Velazquez, and Keller. I’ll take my chances with Foltynewicz, who gets to face the Red Sox at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Boston loses the use of the DH in this series and I ultimately expect the Braves to be favored here.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is the SP2 of choice in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they draw a difficult matchup against Mike Foltynewicz. In addition to having a 28% strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. There isn’t a lot to love from Boston in this matchup, even though they have one of the best offenses in baseball. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers are secondary plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.449	0.276	44.2%	11.4%	14.2%	33.6%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,700	N/A	N/A
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.396	0.201	29.6%	12.9%	14.7%	38.2%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.419	0.228	37.3%	10.2%	19.8%	40.8%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.329	0.203	36.8%	8.0%	24.3%	43.8%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.338	0.194	31.6%	8.4%	10.5%	37.6%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.379	0.186	41.6%	9.5%	22.3%	39.7%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.275	0.085	27.1%	3.1%	15.4%	40.6%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT							2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Hector Velazquez	RIGHT							P	$5,500	P	$6,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.369	0.196	35.5%	9.1%	17.3%	39.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta

The Braves are the preferred offense to target in this game. While SunTrust Park generally favors pitchers, Hector Velazquez has allowed a .382 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season. This brings Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, and Johan Camargo into play in this small slate. I would avoid targeting the right-handed bats in this lineup, as Velazquez has held righties to a .312 xwOBA with a massive 60% ground ball rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.398	0.277	49.1%	7.3%	26.3%	39.3%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.297	0.132	31.1%	7.0%	12.8%	42.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.404	0.173	43.2%	12.2%	17.9%	34.9%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.388	0.163	41.1%	10.3%	9.2%	40.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.313	0.165	36.4%	10.8%	20.6%	47.1%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.300	0.187	34.5%	5.2%	18.1%	37.0%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.319	0.073	47.7%	7.1%	24.4%	40.4%	C	$2,200	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.284	0.168	34.8%	6.7%	23.4%	42.6%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.060	0.026	14.3%	0.0%	65.9%	60.0%	P	$9,800	P	$8,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.307	0.152	36.9%	7.4%	24.3%	42.8%

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Johan Camargo

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Cleveland
			Brad Keller							Corey Kluber
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-400							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.329	0.347	32.4%	0.76	16.4%	51.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.269	0.287	36.6%	1.30	27.6%	42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.300	34.2%	0.41	16.1%	55.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.260	0.303	35.9%	0.84	22.3%	46.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Brad Keller
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$5,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			13 of 28	Salary Rank:			22 of 28	Salary Rank:

	2018	16	4.61	3.26	16.2%	9.2%	53.6%	33.4%	17.9%	93.9	8.4%
	L14	2	4.49	2.77	17.3%	5.8%	45.0%	40.0%	17.5%	93.3	8.1%

Keller is another pitcher that has a low ERA, but his advanced numbers suggest some regression moving forward. In 16 starts, he has a 4.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has a high ground ball rate, but that’s negated in a matchup against the fly-ball hitting Indians. Cleveland’s projected lineup boasts a .361 xwOBA, a 40% hard contact rate, and a ground ball rate of only 38% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Keller in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,500	Salary:			$10,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			1 of 28	Salary Rank:			3 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%	92.6	15.6%
	2018	28	3.34	2.80	24.9%	3.7%	44.5%	36.2%	15.2%	92.1	11.0%
	L14	3	3.56	3.86	26.0%	6.5%	39.2%	36.5%	9.6%	92.3	13.4%

Kluber is clearly the top pitcher in the early slate and I’d argue that he’s the top pitcher on the schedule. In 28 starts, he owns a 3.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 4%. He has allowed more hard contact this season, but that’s not a big issue in a matchup against the Royals. Their projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 26% against right-handed pitching. This isn’t a spot to get cute, play Kluber and look to differentiate with your hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are large underdogs against Corey Kluber, who has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters this season. While I don’t like to target hitters against my pitcher in larger slates, it’s a nice way to differentiate your lineups in tournaments in small slates. Kluber will likely be so highly owned that he’s basically a block, meaning it doesn’t matter what he does. If you play Kluber and can find the hitter that ends up with a good game from the Royals, you’ll be well ahead of the field. The batter on my radar here is Ryan O’Hearn, who currently boasts a .404 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.345	0.118	37.2%	9.8%	16.4%	36.2%	2B	$3,400	2B/OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Adalberto Mondesi	RIGHT	0.294	0.153	40.0%	3.4%	28.2%	41.9%	SS	$2,800	2B/SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.384	0.151	38.8%	9.1%	20.1%	43.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Hunter Dozier	RIGHT	0.306	0.181	51.2%	3.6%	30.6%	41.1%	3B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Ryan O’Hearn	LEFT	0.480	0.404	55.0%	14.8%	19.7%	35.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.344	0.190	35.9%	10.1%	30.3%	43.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Rosell Herrera	SWITCH	0.272	0.085	37.6%	5.3%	22.5%	58.7%	OF	$2,000	2B/OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Brett Phillips	LEFT	0.262	0.208	45.0%	7.6%	41.8%	30.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Meibrys Viloria	LEFT							C	$2,000	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.336	0.186	42.6%	8.0%	26.2%	41.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ryan O’Hearn (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians are the top offense to target in the early slate, but if the plan is to play Corey Kluber and Mike Foltynewicz, you will have a tough time affording these Indians’ hitters. With that said, this offense is a great fit for a matchup against Brad Keller, whose biggest strength at this point is his ground ball rate. He has struggled a bit against lefties, allowing a .347 xwOBA on the season. Each of the first five batters in this lineup own a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yonder Alonso.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.387	0.246	41.7%	9.2%	16.3%	36.5%	SS	$4,500	SS	$5,500	N/A	N/A
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.402	0.183	42.8%	8.8%	8.1%	43.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.411	0.345	38.5%	17.8%	11.7%	32.2%	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,400	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.267	43.2%	8.6%	22.7%	39.0%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.379	0.208	38.8%	9.7%	19.4%	38.5%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.342	0.142	37.8%	7.9%	12.6%	46.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.348	0.153	37.7%	10.4%	17.6%	34.9%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.305	0.149	42.9%	4.1%	28.1%	33.3%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.292	0.088	38.6%	4.0%	16.7%	45.5%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.361	0.198	40.2%	8.9%	17.0%	38.8%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Pittsburgh
			Homer Bailey							Jameson Taillon
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-195							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.390	0.382	36.4%	2.39	15.6%	40.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.329	32.5%	1.05	19.2%	43.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.371	0.393	47.2%	1.72	14.5%	43.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.257	0.267	30.0%	0.88	25.6%	51.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Homer Bailey
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,900	Salary:			$4,800	Salary:		$9,300
	Salary Rank:			23 of 28	Salary Rank:			28 of 28	Salary Rank:		24 of 28
	2017	18	5.19	6.43	16.0%	10.0%	44.6%	31.0%	16.5%	93.5	9.3%
	2018	19	4.86	6.13	15.0%	6.8%	41.7%	42.1%	15.2%	93.0	8.7%
	L14	3	4.23	5.06	15.4%	3.9%	50.0%	37.1%	29.0%	92.3	12.2%

Bailey is not a pitcher that I will be trusting in DFS anytime soon. We have a large enough sample size over the years to know that he’s a subpar pitcher at the major league level. In 19 starts this season, he owns a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. The Pirates aren’t exactly an intimidating opponent, but he has to face them on the road and throughout the season, they’ve had one of the lowest strikeout rates of any offense when facing a right-handed pitcher. Pittsburgh’s projected lineup for tonight’s game has seven batters with at least a .340+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bailey in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:			$9,900	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:			5 of 28	Salary Rank:			4 of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28
	2017	25	4.24	4.44	21.3%	7.8%	47.3%	29.6%	22.1%	95.3	8.2%
	2018	27	3.82	3.45	22.2%	6.1%	47.5%	31.3%	19.5%	95.3	10.7%
	L14	3	2.91	1.89	31.1%	5.4%	43.5%	37.0%	21.7%	95.5	15.0%

Taillon is my favorite pitcher of the slate and judging by what I’ve ready from different experts across the industry, I may be alone in this thought. He has the perfect skill set when it comes to DFS. He has above-average ground ball and strikeout rates and he has excellent control. He’s been in elite form in his last three starts and he gets to face a reeling Reds’ offense at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Reds aren’t thought of as a high-strikeout offense, but their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .303 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds come into tonight’s game with one of the lowest implied totals of the slate. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they draw a difficult matchup against Jameson Taillon. The only thing he doesn’t do well is hold runners. In fact, he’s right there with Tyler Glasnow as the worst pitcher in this slate when it comes to stolen bases allowed. This brings Billy Hamilton into play and there’s a good chance that both Taillon and Hamilton have big games. I rarely target a hitter against my pitcher in large slates, but might make an exception for Hamilton tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.249	0.073	18.1%	8.3%	23.0%	41.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,600
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.295	0.114	31.0%	5.5%	12.3%	35.4%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,500
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.450	0.155	39.4%	19.3%	13.9%	33.8%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,300
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.338	0.177	38.9%	7.2%	18.6%	40.7%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,100
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.372	0.239	46.8%	8.9%	23.2%	38.2%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.351	0.209	42.0%	9.4%	24.7%	52.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,400
7	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.292	0.114	45.5%	4.0%	22.7%	47.1%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	RF	$6,000
8	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.305	0.171	34.6%	8.9%	24.1%	36.0%	C	$3,000	C	$3,000	C	$5,400
9	Homer Bailey	RIGHT	0.071	0.000	21.4%	0.0%	39.1%	100.0%	P	$5,900	P	$4,800	P	$9,300
	Team Averages		0.303	0.139	35.3%	7.9%	22.4%	47.2%

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw one of the most favorable matchups on the schedule tonight. Even though they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, a matchup against Homer Bailey more than makes up for it. He has a low strikeout rate, a high hard contact rate, and he has allowed a .380+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. A full Pirates’ stack is certainly on my radar tonight and Starling Marte stands out as one of the top hitters at any position. He brings elite stolen base upside to the table and he also boasts a .339 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.339	0.177	35.7%	4.8%	18.1%	48.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,000	CF	$9,800
2	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.336	0.181	30.7%	10.0%	13.2%	51.8%	OF	$3,400	2B/OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,100
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.369	0.265	36.0%	12.1%	21.9%	31.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,200	RF	$9,600
4	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.378	0.194	35.0%	12.1%	21.6%	37.0%	C	$3,300	C	$3,900	C	$7,300
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.354	0.190	37.2%	3.7%	13.0%	35.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,700
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.348	0.127	30.8%	12.9%	16.2%	51.0%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,300
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.341	0.123	31.8%	7.3%	16.1%	45.1%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,500
8	Kevin Newman	RIGHT	0.171	0.000	0.0%	8.0%	36.0%	71.4%	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,300
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.128	0.027	20.0%	0.0%	35.9%	68.2%	P	$9,300	P	$9,900	P	$19,600
	Team Averages		0.307	0.143	28.6%	7.9%	21.3%	48.9%

Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Colin Moran

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Washington
			Miles Mikolas							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-120							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.318	0.329	36.0%	1.04	15.6%	45.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	0.311	24.9%	1.13	22.5%	36.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.227	0.273	29.1%	0.45	19.4%	56.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.299	0.343	31.1%	1.15	17.3%	45.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Miles Mikolas
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:			15 of 28	Salary Rank:			9 of 28	Salary Rank:		7 of 28

	2018	27	4.00	2.96	17.3%	4.0%	50.3%	33.0%	18.8%	93.9	9.0%
	L14	2	3.76	5.59	16.7%	2.1%	48.6%	18.0%	7.7%	93.5	10.0%

Mikolas was originally scheduled to pitch yesterday, but got his start pushed back until tonight. He was an easy fade then and he’s an easy fade now. He is a pitcher that relies on great control and an ability to pitch deep into games for his fantasy production. While this can be an effective strategy against bad offenses, he needs everything to go right to reach value. Meanwhile, a pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate can afford to make a few more mistakes. Given his matchup on the road against the Nationals, I will be looking elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mikolas in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:		$15,100
	Salary Rank:			8 of 28	Salary Rank:			12 of 28	Salary Rank:		11 of 28
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%	92.2	10.1%
	2018	27	4.33	4.03	19.8%	7.0%	41.3%	28.2%	19.0%	91.4	8.7%
	L14	3	3.87	3.00	20.0%	0.0%	34.1%	34.1%	25.0%	91.7	10.2%

Roark has been all over the map with his pitching performances recently. He’s looked great at times and has looked terrible at times. Overall, he owns a 4.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. Those are mediocre numbers as a whole. The fact that he’s had some reverse-splits this year doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the Cardinals, who will roll out a right-handed heavy lineup tonight. This is far from a great matchup, as the projected lineup for St. Louis has an average xwOBA of .343 with a hard contact rate of 39% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Roark in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals draw a mediocre matchup against Tanner Roark, but have to face him on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. With 12 games on the schedule, we should be able to find better matchups to exploit. With that said, Roark has allowed a .343 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna, and Paul DeJong all bat from the right side and all boast a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Matt Carpenter is also worth a look in tournaments, since he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.436	0.304	49.4%	14.9%	22.8%	20.6%	1B	$4,000	1B/3B	$4,900	3B	$8,900
2	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.282	0.098	37.6%	6.3%	21.6%	57.6%	2B	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,900	SS	$7,700
3	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.395	0.172	40.4%	8.1%	16.7%	48.1%	OF	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,200
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.351	0.119	45.2%	5.8%	17.7%	48.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,700
5	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.358	0.207	38.6%	6.4%	25.5%	32.1%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,500
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.348	0.171	45.2%	5.8%	13.4%	41.2%	C	$3,000	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
7	Patrick Wisdom	RIGHT	0.421	0.545	37.5%	15.4%	23.1%	37.5%	3B	$2,100	1B/3B	$3,400	3B	$6,400
8	Harrison Bader	RIGHT	0.275	0.142	36.1%	7.1%	32.0%	44.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,500
9	Miles Mikolas	RIGHT	0.220	0.171	25.0%	5.1%	43.6%	56.3%	P	$7,200	P	$8,200	P	$16,100
	Team Averages		0.343	0.214	39.4%	8.3%	24.0%	42.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals have a mediocre matchup themselves, as they square off against Miles Mikolas. He doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, but he has a high ground ball rate and excellent control. That’s not exactly what we are looking for in a matchup. The left-handed trio of Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto is viable in tournaments, as Mikolas has allowed a .329 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. Overall, this isn’t a game that I will have much exposure to.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.369	0.136	36.5%	8.8%	15.9%	44.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,100
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.316	0.140	30.3%	7.9%	20.0%	52.1%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,800	IF/OF	$8,900
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.390	0.270	42.3%	17.0%	25.1%	36.6%	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,800	RF	$8,700
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.381	0.196	35.8%	8.2%	13.7%	36.3%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,300
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.383	0.212	35.9%	18.3%	19.3%	50.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,700	LF	$8,900
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.388	0.216	40.3%	6.8%	18.6%	48.8%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,300
7	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.291	0.126	21.2%	7.2%	15.9%	42.4%	2B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,400	2B	$6,900
8	Spencer Kieboom	RIGHT	0.296	0.057	30.8%	12.2%	23.2%	38.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,600
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.178	0.086	15.4%	0.0%	28.9%	83.3%	P	$8,300	P	$7,800	P	$15,100
	Team Averages		0.332	0.160	32.1%	9.6%	20.1%	48.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Toronto
			Tyler Glasnow							Aaron Sanchez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.301	24.2%	0.88	29.1%	51.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.394	0.364	33.3%	0.74	14.6%	51.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.281	0.312	35.9%	0.99	32.2%	48.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.371	34.5%	0.88	20.3%	48.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Tyler Glasnow
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:			$9,500	Salary:		$18,500
	Salary Rank:			17 of 28	Salary Rank:			5 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28
	2017	13	5.62	7.69	18.4%	14.4%	43.2%	31.5%	20.2%	94.6	8.3%
	2018	6	3.49	3.95	30.7%	12.3%	50.0%	30.2%	13.4%	96.7	11.8%
	L14	2	3.46	3.00	29.8%	8.5%	35.7%	46.4%	10.7%	96.7	11.4%

The Pirates have to be kicking themselves at this point. They traded away Tyler Glasnow and a few solid prospects for Chris Archer, who hasn’t done anything in a Pirates’ uniform. Meanwhile, Glasnow has had a resurgence in Tampa. In his six starts, he has a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. He has yet to throw more than 96 pitches in any outing this season, but we don’t really need him to at this price point. With his strikeout upside, he can easily reach value. This is far from a great matchup, but I’m willing to bank on Glasnow’s talent in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Glasnow is viable in tournaments, but there are safer plays for a cash game setting.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Aaron Sanchez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:			18 of 28	Salary Rank:			25 of 28	Salary Rank:		22 of 28
	2017	8	5.62	4.25	14.4%	12.0%	47.5%	29.5%	21.3%	94.9	5.6%
	2018	17	5.15	5.22	17.6%	12.4%	49.6%	33.9%	20.9%	93.7	9.7%
	L14	2	5.95	11.88	8.7%	10.9%	45.9%	43.2%	18.9%	93.7	6.6%

Sanchez has struggled in his 17 starts this season, posting a 5.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 12%. Those numbers are a tough sell for DFS, regardless of the matchup. If anything, this makes me like the Rays’ offense a little more. As an underdog at home pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark, I don’t have any interest in Sanchez.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Sanchez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto and they draw one of the best matchups on the board. This is a sneaky spot to target the Rays’ offense. On the season, Aaron Sanchez has allowed a .364 xwOBA to lefties and a .371 xwOBA to righties. It sounds like Tommy Pham may be forced to sit out tonight, as he left last night’s game early with a groin injury. If he’s out, that’s a blow to this offense as a whole, but it would open the door for C.J. Cron to crack the lineup and bat in a good spot. Mallex Smith, Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle, and Brandon Lowe are all worth a look depending on where they bat in the order.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.304	0.135	29.4%	9.1%	17.6%	46.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,200
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.317	0.080	30.0%	6.4%	15.7%	52.0%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,400
3	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.383	0.235	45.2%	10.4%	26.9%	41.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
4	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.350	0.162	47.3%	9.2%	26.1%	51.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	CF	$9,200
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.325	0.131	35.6%	5.6%	18.5%	47.3%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
6	Brandon Lowe	LEFT	0.325	0.156	38.7%	14.8%	25.9%	48.4%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,200	2B	$6,500
7	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.266	0.111	33.1%	6.9%	23.9%	49.7%	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
8	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.346	0.199	44.6%	14.6%	27.0%	43.4%	1B	$2,300	1B/OF	$3,500	1B	$6,300
9	Nick Ciuffo	LEFT							C	$2,000	C	$2,900	C	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.327	0.151	38.0%	9.6%	22.7%	47.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith, Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, C.J. Cron

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a difficult matchup tonight against Tyler Glasnow. On the season, he has a 31% strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. The two issues throughout his career have been walks and stolen bases. I was hoping Billy McKinney was more of a runner, but he has only stolen one base all year (and that includes his time at Double-A and Triple-A). I still think he offers decent value on DraftKings ($3,600), but the hitter on my radar is Lourdes Gurriel, who grades out well in terms of speed.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy McKinney	LEFT	0.469	0.361	55.6%	11.6%	23.3%	33.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
2	Lourdes Gurriel	RIGHT	0.343	0.174	33.0%	2.4%	22.2%	40.4%	2B	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,400	2B	$6,600
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.409	0.268	39.7%	16.1%	26.2%	32.4%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,500
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.448	0.250	45.6%	12.2%	19.4%	44.5%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,400
5	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.351	0.270	35.2%	6.3%	22.7%	35.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,600
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.337	0.172	33.7%	3.7%	19.3%	35.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,700
7	Danny Jansen	RIGHT	0.291	0.219	24.1%	7.9%	10.5%	31.0%	C	$2,400	C	$3,400	C	$6,500
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.347	0.181	33.9%	3.3%	12.8%	41.9%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,700
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.325	0.133	33.0%	5.7%	20.1%	54.0%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.369	0.225	37.1%	7.7%	19.6%	38.8%

Elite Plays – Lourdes Gurriel

Secondary Plays – Billy McKinney, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 5th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kansas City at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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