NHL Grind Down: Saturday, March 4th
Jump to Page 1 2
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers
| Dallas Stars | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Kari Lehtonen |  | James Reimer | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 25-29-10 | 29-23-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.79 | 3.21 | 18.60% | 73.70% | Team Stats | 2.46 | 2.70 | 16.30% | 85.90% |
The injury to Antoine Roussel has forced the Dallas Stars to mix up the lines ahead of tonight’s game. Head coach Lindy Ruff has inserted Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn on the top line with Jason Spezza, while Cody Eakin will center Patrick Sharp and Curtis McKenzie, which will serve as the team’s second line. Since the Stars traded Patrick Eaves, it’s obvious that they want to see a few combinations over the next few weeks, which is why they but the top two scorers on the top line. Seguin has 63 points while Benn is right behind him 60 points in 60 games. It’s doubtful that Florida will be able to keep this much talent off of the board so if they limit them to one goal Dallas could surely lose here. Although defenseman John Klingberg has taken a back seat to Esa Lindell on the top power play unit he has still been able to rack up the points over the last nine games. Two of his seven points have come with the extra attacker over that time frame, while Lindell has three points over those same nine games. Either one is fine here, however, as the Stars are trying to sort out exactly what they have for next year.
Thomas Vanek made his less-than-memorable debut with the Florida Panthers on Thursday night, as they lost 2-1 shootout style to the Flyers in Philadelphia. The good news is that it looks like Dallas has thrown in the towel, as they have given up 32 goals in their last eight games on the road, chalking up just one win in the process. Yes, the Stars are pretty bad defensively, as they are tied with Arizona for the league lead in goals against with 208 of them. Cue Aleksander Barkov and John Huberdeau here, who skate on the top line with Jaromir Jagr and have each grabbed nine points over the last 10 games. Vincent Trocheck has a one-off feel here; he leads the team with 22 goals and 44 points as he skates with Jussi Jokinen and Reilly Smith at even strength. Okay, here’s where it gets interesting. I mentioned Vanek above and he has been put on a line with Jonathan Marchessault and Nick Bjugstad, who very well could be considered as the second line here. Marchessault has grabbed 19 goals and 18 assists so far this season, so if Bjugstad gets into a passing mood, he could surely see his assist total rise, as he appears to have a sniper on each side of him. Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle are the choices on the back line and honestly, the matchup is so good tonight that they both may have decent games. Look for Florida to improve on their 15-13-3 record in front of the home crowd and stay in the Eastern Conference playoff conversation.
Elite Plays
DAL: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn
FLA: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov
Secondary Plays
DAL: Jason Spezza, Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg
FLA: Vincent Trocheck, Thomas Vanek, Jonathan Marchessault, Keith Yandle
Montréal Canadiens at New York Rangers
| Montréal Canadiens | New York Rangers | ||||||||
 | Carey Price |  | Henrik Lundqvist | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 36-21-8 | 41-21-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.72 | 2.49 | 21.10% | 80.10% | Team Stats | 3.22 | 2.61 | 18.10% | 81.10% |
Montreal has extended their Atlantic Division lead to six points over the Ottawa Senators thanks to their winning six of their last 10 games. Max Pacioretty, Alexander Radulov and Phillip Danault look to lead the team from the top line but could find the competition a bit tougher tonight ,as they travel to Madison Square Garden. Pacioretty leads the team with eight points over the last nine games, which is pretty much what he’s done all season, as he leads the team with 56 points in 65 games. Radulov’s 46 points is good enough for second on the team, while Danault has been serviceable enough to find the score sheet 30 times so far this season. With the top line no doubt grabbing most of the Rangers attention, it will be up to Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk to do some damage from the second line. Galchenyuk looks to be the one-off here, as he has 35 points in the 44 games he has suited up for. Gallagher still looks hurt to me, in part because he has notched just 19 points in the 47 games he has played in. Shea Weber and Andrei Markov are the choices from the back line with Weber being the safer, more expensive play. Weber has collected 21 of his 37 points with the man advantage, and that could work here, as the rangers have given up at least one power play goal in three of their last four games.
The Rangers’ 84 points is more than the Canadiens, but because of the division they play in, they are sitting in fourth place behind both Pittsburgh and Columbus, who have 86 points so far this season. Michael Grabner may not be back from injury for tonight’s game, so we will have to take a peek and see what line changes the Rangers made for last game. They will most likely stick to that game plan as they were able to beat the Boston Bruins by a score of 2-1 in front of their home crowd. Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider and Derek Stepan will stay together as a unit, as they have been pretty consistent for most of the season. All players have 42 points or more this season, with Zuccarello leading the way with 12 goals and a team leading 36 assists. Pavel Buchnevich was back in action as he logged his ice time next to Mika Zibanejad and Rick Nash, while J.T. Miller played alongside of Jimmy Vesey and Kevin Hayes. Miller leads the team with 48 points, while Hayes needs just three more points to eclipse his career high 45 points from two years ago. Ryan McDonagh gets the chance to lead the team from the back line, as he logs most of the ice time when the Rangers draw a penalty. McDonagh is the household name but we can’t keep Brady Skjei out of the conversation. The 22-year-old from Lakeville, Minnesota has grabbed seven of his 31 points over the last 10 games. This should be a decent game to watch, with both teams expected to make a little noise in the end of the season tournament.
Elite Plays
MTL:Max Pacioretty
NYR: Mats Zuccarello
Secondary Plays
MTL: Alexander Radulov, Alex Galchenyuk, Shea Weber, Andrei Markov
NYR: Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad
Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Buffalo Sabres | ||||||||
 | Andrei Vasilevskiy |  | Robin Lehner | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 29-26-8 | 27-26-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.77 | 2.76 | 22.90% | 79.90% | Team Stats | 2.51 | 2.76 | 22.80% | 76.10% |
Tampa was in last night’s game for a little while. In fact, they had a 1-0 lead until 11 minutes and 21 seconds were left in the second period, which is when all hell broke loose. The Penguins outscored them 5-1 the rest of the way, which dropped their road record to 12-15-2. Tonight’s opponent should be a bit easier, but that doesn’t mean they will win the game. Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat skate as the team’s first line, which means that the talented Jonathan Drouin will skate with Alex Killorn and Brayden Point on the team’s second line. Kucherov leads the team with 28 goals and 62 points while Johnson has collected nine of his 42 points over the last six games. I wouldn’t be too scared of the Buffalo defense, even if they are playing on home ice, as they have given up 21 goals in their last six games. Drouin appears to be the one-off here, as he has lit the lamp 17 times en route to collecting 40 points in his 53 games. Victor Hedman is definitely one of the better defensive options tonight, as he grabbed six power play points over the last 11 games. Add another five even strength points to that total, and you can easily see why the 26-year-old Finnish defenseman is second on the team with 54 points. The odd thing here is that if Tampa loses this game, Buffalo will jump ahead of them in the Atlantic Division standings.
The Sabres come into this one just six points away from being tied with the New York Islanders for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Of course, the odds are long that the team will actually accomplish this feat, but nonetheless, if they get on a little run, anything is possible. If they are going to do that, they will have to do it without the services of the team scoring leader, Kyle Okposo. He will be out at least two games with a rib injury, which will allow Evander Kane to take his spot on the top line with Ryan O’Reilly and Brian Gionta. The second line is the one to target here, with Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, and Marcus Foligno being viewed as the top line in head coach Dan Bylsma’s eyes. Eichel is the easy one-off here, as his 14 points in the last 10 games gets him ever closer to being a point-per-game player, as he has found the score sheet 40 times in the 43 games he has suited up for. Defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is a great compliment to Eichel if you are looking for another Buffalo player to roster tonight. Ristolainen soaks up the majority of the extra minutes when the Sabres draw a penalty, and he has responded by chalking up 21 of his 38 points with the man advantage. Buffalo hasn’t been shut out since November 7th, and there’s no reason to think that will happen tonight in front of the home crowd.
Elite Plays
TB: Nikita Kucherov
BUF: Jack Eichel
Secondary Plays
TB: Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, Brayden Point
BUF: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O’Reilly, Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals
| Philadelphia Flyers | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 |  | ||||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-26-7 | 43-13-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.49 | 2.92 | 21.40% | 81.60% | Team Stats | 3.29 | 2.05 | 22.00% | 84.40% |
Hey wow, look at this! The Flyers have actually won two games in a row! (insert eye roll here). Thirty-two-year-old Valtteri Filppula made his Flyers debut in grand fashion, scoring the only Flyers goal in a 2-1 shootout win over the Florida Panthers on Thursday night. By moving Filppula onto the second line with Brayden Schenn and Jakub Voracek enabled, the Flyers to use Sean Couturier in a way he is best suited and that is to stop the other team’s top line. I’ve been saying this all year that it is very tough to do that when you are centering the second line, which had either Wayne Simmonds or Voracek on it, as the emphasis is more on scoring goals with them as line mates a say it is with his current line mates of Dale Weise and Nick Cousins. Simmonds leads the team in goals with 27 while skating on the top line with Claude Giroux and Jordan Weal. Philadelphia gets a stern test tonight, traveling to the nation’s capital to take on the best team in the league. Don’t expect much here, as the Flyers still stack up as a bad team regardless of how many goals Filppula scores. Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov are the choices on the back line, with Gostisbehere getting the slight nod here. His 27 points is just three more than Provorov, but “The Ghost” has played in six fewer games. Not a big difference, I know, but in all reality, it’s probably best to stay away from this mess tonight.
On paper, it looks like the Capitals should boat race the weaker Philadelphia Flyers tonight and probably will. We all know Washington’s story by now: best team in the league, can’t get it done in the playoffs, yadda, yadda, yadda. The thing is, this isn’t the playoffs, and the best team in the league should have no problem here, which is why you will more than likely see some very high ownership numbers for your cash game plays tonight. Nicklas Backstrom will center the top line along with Alexander Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie. The hardest sell on this line is in fact Oshie, as his 43 points in 50 games looks a bit smaller than that of Backstrom’s team-leading 64 points in 63 games. Upon further speculation, you realize that Oshie’s 24 goals is just three behind Ovechkin’s team-leading 27, so it looks like it’s full steam ahead tonight. To deviate a little bit, you could certainly use Evgeny Kuznetsov and Marcus Johansson from the second line, as Kuznetsov has grabbed seven of his 51 points over the last eight games. Meanwhile, Johansson gets exposure to the top line by skating with them on the team’s top power play unit. The back line certainly got a bit muddled last week when Kevin Shattenkirk was acquired from the St Louis Blues. Shattenkirk is the clear-cut play here, but the move will decrease the value of both John Carlson and Matt Niskanen. Either are decent plays tonight, but Shattenkirk is the guy who now seems to have the higher ceiling.
Elite Plays
PHL: None
WSH: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Ovechkin
Secondary Plays
PHL: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux, Valtteri Filppula, Shayne Gostisbehere
WSH: Kevin Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson
New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins
| New Jersey Devils | Boston Bruins | ||||||||
 | Cory Schneider |  | Tuukka Rask | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 25-26-12 | 33-25-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.25 | 2.84 | 18.10% | 80.60% | Team Stats | 2.73 | 2.59 | 19.80% | 86.00% |
The New Jersey Devils are another team that correctly deemed themselves out of this year’s playoff race, as they shipped P.A. Parenteau off to the Nashville Predators for a sixth-round pick in this year’s draft. This will effectively put both Miles Wood and the Pittsburgh reject Beau Bennett into the top six on the Devils roster. It’s pretty evident that no one wanted Mike Cammalleri, as he was benched a few weeks back and now will be out a while with an upper-body injury. Adam Henrique skates with Bennett and Wood on the team’s second line, while Travis Zajac centers the team’s only scoring line along with Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri. Although Hall leads the team with 41 points it’s very hard to get invest a lot of roster space to a team that has scored 15 goals in their last seven games and is dead last with 145 goals in the Eastern Conference. Zajac and Palmieri lead the team with a combined eight goals and nine assists in the last eight games, so if Jersey is going to score, it will probably come from the top line. As far as defenseman go, Damon Severson has cooled off immensely here in the second half. He seems to be stuck at to be stuck at 27 points, while Andy Greene has received a lot of power play minutes over the last few weeks. The problem is that Greene hasn’t responded well, and maybe looking elsewhere for your defensemen is the way to go tonight.
Boston has won seven of their last 10 games and has moved to within two points of the Ottawa Senators for second place in the Atlantic Division. Their 72 points can easily be caught by both Toronto and the New York Islanders, and if that would happen, they’d be out of the playoffs that start next month. Brad Marchand has been almost unstoppable this season, as he leads the team with 29 goals and 38 assists so far this season. Patrice Bergeron and David Backes complete the top line, while David Krejci centers Peter Cehlarik and David Pastrnak. Krecji has tallied eight points in the last eight games while Pastrnak’s 26 goals and 27 assists has him second on the team in scoring. Either line looks to be in play here on home ice, as the Bruins look to improve on their 16-14 record in front of the home crowd. Third-liner Ryan Spooner still gets the top power play minutes, with Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak, so I couldn’t blame you if you used him as a one-off here hoping to get a piece of that action. Defenseman Torey Krug looks to be the best option on the back line, as his 41 points is more than double that of any Boston defenseman so far this season. It also helps that Krug gets the extra minutes on the team’s top power play unit in which he has tallied 17 points when Boston has the man advantage.
Elite Plays
NJ: Taylor Hall
BOS: Brad Marchand
Secondary Plays
NJ: Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac, Adam Henrique
BOS: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug, David Krejci