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MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-22 03:05:50

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-105 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 32.1% 10.1% 22.6% 43.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 28.6% 7.1% 17.9% 37.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 31.1% 8.8% 28.7% 46.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 25.7% 9.4% 26.3% 34.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 2 2.16 5.23 37.2% 7.0% 29.2% 29.2% 20.8%

We have 15 games to get to tonight, so I will keep the analysis short and simple on the pitchers and offenses that I have no interest in. Pomeranz is not lumped in that category, as he provides plenty of strikeout upside against the Orioles. I compare this spot to Danny Duffy last night, who was criminally under-owned against the Rangers. Pomeranz’s peripherals look great so far this season and the projected lineup of the Orioles has a combined strikeout rate of 23% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: There is always risk taking a pitcher against the Orioles, but Pomeranz has elite strikeout upside in this matchup. Playable in GPPs and as an SP2.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 3 3.21 1.86 23.6% 4.2% 37.3% 23.1% 28.9%

Bundy has shown nice upside in his first two seasons, posting a strikeout rate over 22%, while limiting hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate. However, the Red Sox have had his number in the past. The current Sox roster has 95 plate appearances against Bundy and have a combined .397 wOBA. Boston is also a team that we try to avoid pitchers against in general, as they take a ton of pitches and have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: More risk than reward here, I’d rather target the opposing pitcher (Pomeranz).

Batter Grind Down

Boston

A matchup against Dylan Bundy doesn’t look that appealing on paper, He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. He also has an above-average strikeout rate. The good news is that the Red Sox have hit Bundy well in the past. Mookie Betts has the best BvP of the bunch, going 5-for-12 with two home runs and three walks against Bundy. Betts also boasts a ridiculous .391 wOBA with a 10.7% strikeout rate against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.349 0.126 33.3% 7.3% 10.0% 50.6% 2B $2,900 2B $4,700 2B $9,200
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.397 0.206 33.6% 9.1% 14.0% 34.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.391 0.205 33.5% 7.2% 10.7% 42.2% OF $4,200 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.334 0.174 37.0% 9.2% 19.5% 49.3% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.340 0.138 29.1% 6.8% 17.0% 47.2% SS $3,300 SS $5,000 SS $9,600
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.315 0.192 38.9% 7.6% 22.9% 38.9% 1B $3,600 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.375 0.259 39.9% 10.7% 21.4% 45.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,800 CF $9,200
8 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.305 0.217 50.0% 7.8% 25.5% 35.3% 3B $2,500 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.306 0.128 33.8% 6.1% 26.2% 43.9% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,400

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The natural inclination is to want to target the Orioles hitters at home, but this isn’t a great spot. Drew Pomeranz has an above-average ground ball rate to righties with an elite strikeout rate of 28.7%. In the last two seasons, he has held right-handed hitters to a .282 wOBA and a 31% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.209 0.095 12.5% 6.4% 23.4% 63.3% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.261 0.109 31.8% 6.7% 20.8% 39.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.378 0.196 39.2% 9.6% 13.8% 39.9% 3B $3,700 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.259 0.194 37.6% 5.9% 26.9% 41.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.313 0.180 32.8% 10.2% 33.3% 34.4% 1B $3,200 1B $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.357 0.220 52.0% 8.3% 23.6% 40.8% C $2,900 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.479 0.467 30.4% 3.2% 22.6% 56.5% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $3,300 1B $6,600
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.293 0.162 21.6% 4.0% 24.4% 49.6% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.326 0.165 43.7% 8.8% 15.4% 45.6% SS $2,500 SS $3,100 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Welington Castillo

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
atlantamlb Bartolo Colon philadelphiamlb Jeremy Hellickson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-115 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 37.4% 5.3% 16.1% 36.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 26.7% 8.7% 17.0% 31.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 33.8% 3.1% 17.2% 47.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 26.9% 3.0% 20.9% 47.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon
bartolo-colon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.37 3.43 16.2% 4.1% 43.2% 35.4% 16.2%
2017 3 4.11 4.24 22.2% 6.4% 25.0% 40.0% 26.7%

Colon has been up and down in his first three starts this season. If you check out his game log on FanDuel, he has scored 37, 0, and 46 fantasy points in his first three outings. He throws a lot of hittable fastballs at this stage in his career, which is why his hard contact rate is so high. He does have excellent command, but doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we are looking for from a pitcher. There are better pitching options at this price point.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.15 3.71 20.0% 5.8% 40.7% 25.9% 20.8%
2017 3 5.61 1.59 7.7% 4.6% 33.3% 35.7% 12.5%

Hellickson had a surprisingly good season a year ago, but his peripherals do not look good through the first three games this season. He hasn’t been able to strike anyone out and he has given up a lot of hard contact. A matchup against the Braves is a good news-bad news situation, as they aren’t particularly potent against right-handed pitching, but they are a contact team that puts the ball in play often. Hellickson could pitch well here, but he has limited strikeout upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves see a small ballpark bump tonight playing in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park. The problem is that outside of Freddie Freeman, they don’t hit many home runs. Jeremy Hellickson has really done a nice job against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .307 wOBA and a 26.7% hard contact rate. Freeman is a viable one-off target for tournaments, but the rest of the Braves can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.317 0.116 26.3% 8.0% 13.6% 43.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
2 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.271 0.099 31.4% 7.3% 24.7% 42.5% SS $2,500 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.423 0.305 43.7% 14.8% 22.7% 28.0% 1B $4,600 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.328 0.222 37.4% 5.3% 24.3% 39.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.344 0.158 33.3% 11.8% 16.1% 40.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
6 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.331 0.123 28.4% 3.2% 11.6% 48.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
7 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.282 0.131 30.0% 3.4% 17.0% 52.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
8 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.351 0.141 45.3% 8.2% 28.0% 45.3% C $2,800 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Bartolo Colon RIGHT 0.090 0.087 10.5% 0.0% 61.2% 53.8% P $7,800 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash)

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

I never quite know what to do with hitters facing Bartolo Colon. There are times when offenses tee off against him and there are times when he just shuts his opponents down. The promising statistic here is that Colon has allowed a .328 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. A mini-Phillies’ stack is certainly in play here and I’m a big fan of Cesar Hernandez for cash games on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.334 0.117 26.3% 11.0% 19.2% 53.2% 2B $3,600 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
2 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.282 0.106 36.6% 6.8% 20.4% 36.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.359 0.162 28.6% 9.7% 19.9% 42.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.297 0.160 29.5% 6.8% 16.5% 44.9% 3B $2,800 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.325 0.187 37.4% 10.6% 27.6% 39.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.318 0.218 37.1% 5.2% 22.8% 41.5% 1B $2,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.300 0.171 33.1% 6.5% 27.3% 47.6% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.301 0.178 27.7% 4.6% 22.9% 40.3% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.190 0.065 6.3% 5.6% 35.2% 76.0% P $8,200 P $7,300 P $14,400

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (FD), Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Pittsburgh
nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia pittsburghmlb Tyler Glasnow
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-100 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.290 19.6% 9.0% 23.5% 49.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.374 19.5% 16.4% 20.9% 46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 26.1% 8.4% 18.3% 49.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.362 29.2% 11.5% 23.1% 47.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 3 4.67 1.47 14.9% 9.5% 44.4% 27.3% 23.6%

Sabathia is no longer a high strikeout pitcher, but he has revitalized his career by chasing soft contact instead of strikeouts. Over the last two seasons, he is one of the best at limiting hard contact and inducing soft contact, which makes targeting hitters against him unappealing. However, he doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration in DFS, even against an ice-cold Pirates’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Not enough upside for me.

Tyler Glasnow
tyler-glasnow-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 4 4.46 4.24 22.9% 12.4% 47.6% 27.7% 21.5%
2017 2 5.23 12.15 20.0% 17.5% 45.8% 16.7% 25.0%

Glasnow has struggled in his first two starts this season. He couldn’t find the strike zone against the Reds in his first start and then had to face the Cubs in Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out to center field. Don’t give up on him just yet though, as he has shown strikeout upside in the minors and in his first few major league starts. I wouldn’t trust him in a cash game setting tonight, but he is facing an American League Yankees’ team tonight at home. The Yankees have two very high strikeout batters in their lineup in Greg Bird and Starlin Castro and Glasnow will also get to face CC Sabathia.

Quick Breakdown: Call me crazy, but I like Glasnow as a cheap tournament play tonight.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The sample size is too small to put too much emphasis on, but we’ve seen Glasnow hold both left and right-handed hitters under a 30% hard contact rate. His major weakness so far has been his command. Walks are fine, but they are more valuable in real baseball than they are in fantasy baseball. I’m typically not going to roster a player because he is in a good position to take walks. I will note that teams have been running on Francisco Cervelli with great success so far this season if you want to target Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury for their stolen base upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.330 0.105 25.9% 13.1% 16.7% 51.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.326 0.125 27.5% 9.5% 12.6% 47.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
3 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.340 0.172 31.7% 11.2% 25.6% 42.5% 3B $3,600 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.323 0.167 30.7% 3.9% 18.9% 50.3% 2B $3,100 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
5 Greg Bird LEFT 0.237 0.167 50.0% 10.0% 35.0% 28.6% 1B $2,700 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
6 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.331 0.264 50.0% 8.2% 36.9% 42.4% OF $3,500 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
7 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.287 0.140 24.4% 5.9% 17.6% 40.3% C $2,600 C $2,500 C $4,800
8 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.311 0.155 22.7% 2.5% 9.9% 48.6% 3B $2,500 SS $2,400 SS $4,800
9 CC Sabathia LEFT 0.000 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $7,600 P $7,400 P $14,700

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner (FD), Jacoby Ellsbury (DK)

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner (DK), Jacoby Ellsbury (FD), Chase Headley

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

CC Sabathia used to get rocked by right-handed hitters in every one of his starts, but he has changed his approach in the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has held righties to a .308 wOBA and a 26% hard contact rate. The Pirates’ offense has been ice cold recently and don’t inspire a ton of confidence heading into tonight’s matchup. David Freese is the one hitter that I don’t mind as a one-off target. He has a .424 wOBA and a 46% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.329 0.157 26.5% 14.0% 13.2% 40.2% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.350 0.167 36.1% 1.8% 15.5% 37.6% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,900
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.332 0.208 32.7% 12.6% 18.9% 38.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.320 0.204 31.2% 8.1% 29.8% 45.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.424 0.216 45.7% 15.0% 26.7% 58.6% 3B $2,500 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.359 0.015 43.4% 14.1% 16.7% 59.6% C $2,600 C $3,000 C $6,000
7 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.170 0.000 20.7% 7.9% 15.8% 55.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
8 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.355 0.000 20.7% 5.6% 13.9% 62.1% SS $2,500 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
9 Tyler Glasnow RIGHT P $5,800 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – David Freese (GPP)

Secondary Plays – David Freese (Cash)

Stackability – RED

Houston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Houston Tampa Bay
houstonmlb Mike Fiers tampabaymlb Alex Cobb
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -102 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 33.7% 6.4% 17.7% 43.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.493 31.8% 7.5% 13.8% 45.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.358 35.8% 5.6% 19.0% 41.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 42.5% 4.0% 16.0% 51.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.26 4.48 18.5% 5.8% 42.2% 35.3% 17.2%
2017 2 4.36 5.40 17.4% 8.7% 46.9% 27.3% 18.2%

Fiers used to be a high strikeout pitcher, but he traded some of that strikeout upside for better command. It has made him a more reliable pitcher, but one that we often avoid in DFS. In the last two seasons, he has a SIERA over 4.30 with a strikeout rate of only 18%. He gives up a lot of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters and this Rays’ offense has been firing on all cylinders. This may surprise you, but they have scored more runs than any team in the American League this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.50 8.59 15.4% 6.7% 52.5% 29.6% 17.3%
2017 3 4.19 4.50 14.5% 4.0% 44.3% 48.4% 11.3%

Cobb’s numbers over the last two seasons aren’t great, but he is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery. There are some encouraging signs, as his velocity is at the highest point of his career and his swinging strike rate is slowly going up. If tonight’s slate was smaller, I would consider him as a deep tournament play, but it’s hard to justify the play in a 15 game slate. I will continue to take a wait and see approach on Cobb.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid for now.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

We are in a tricky spot with Alex Cobb. With a sample size of only eight starts in the last two seasons, it’s hard to trust his splits. But at the same time, we can’t really trust his splits before he had Tommy John surgery, because he was obviously a much better pitcher back then. The Astros aren’t a team that is high on my list of potential targets, but Josh Reddick and Carlos Correa are both viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.333 0.175 30.8% 10.8% 24.4% 49.9% OF $4,000 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.378 0.171 32.9% 9.2% 11.4% 39.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.395 0.188 32.7% 7.8% 9.2% 42.2% 2B $4,200 2B $4,500 2B $8,800
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.354 0.181 36.0% 10.0% 21.3% 50.6% SS $3,700 SS $4,400 SS $8,700
5 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.334 0.197 31.9% 5.8% 16.9% 46.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
6 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.336 0.197 30.4% 7.5% 22.5% 32.6% 3B $3,300 3B/SS $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.333 0.177 37.4% 11.1% 19.1% 33.0% C $2,900 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.349 0.153 26.3% 5.0% 10.8% 46.9% 3B $2,700 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
9 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.350 0.131 21.5% 6.8% 8.6% 56.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 LF $6,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Over the last two seasons, Mike Fiers has allowed a .324+ wOBA and a 36%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He also has a below-average strikeout rate, so there are plenty of reasons to like the Rays’ offense in this spot. They should get overlooked thanks to an average implied run total, but I’m a fan of a few hitters here. Corey Dickerson is still too cheap across the industry, Evan Longoria has discovered the powers of having a beard, and Brad Miller always offers good upside against right-handed pitching. If you are in need of a punt play at first base, Logan Morrison is only $2,300 on FanDuel.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.334 0.256 31.2% 6.5% 22.9% 33.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.319 0.157 31.6% 9.6% 17.1% 44.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.355 0.251 37.3% 6.3% 22.0% 32.2% 3B $3,200 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.337 0.248 35.8% 8.1% 25.4% 44.7% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 SS $7,200
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.335 0.178 32.0% 8.2% 31.4% 40.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.321 0.193 35.4% 8.9% 21.5% 42.7% 1B $2,300 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
7 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.234 0.134 30.8% 6.5% 33.5% 36.0% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,400
8 Shane Peterson LEFT 0.464 0.364 37.5% 0.0% 27.3% 12.5% OF $2,200 LF $4,200
9 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.271 0.179 38.0% 3.9% 30.7% 44.3% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,700

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, Logan Morrison

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Washington NY Mets
washingtonmlb Tanner Roark nymetsmlb Matt Harvey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -125 7.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 28.6% 10.3% 18.7% 43.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 32.4% 6.9% 19.4% 32.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 21.3% 6.1% 20.8% 54.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 30.0% 4.9% 19.2% 51.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.32 2.83 20.1% 8.5% 48.7% 24.3% 23.1%
2017 3 3.57 3.50 16.4% 2.7% 53.7% 28.1% 19.3%

It’s going to be hard for Roark to repeat what he did a year ago. His peripheral statistics suggest some regression, especially if his strikeout rate is going to come down this season. He isn’t a pitcher that we really like to pick on, but it takes a near perfect matchup for me to roster him in DFS. On the road against the Mets doesn’t exactly qualify as a near perfect matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Overpriced for the ceiling he offers. I will be looking elsewhere.

Matt Harvey
matt-harvey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 4.31 4.86 18.9% 6.2% 40.8% 30.3% 24.3%
2017 3 3.32 2.45 21.4% 4.3% 47.1% 36.5% 28.9%

This is unrelated, but how frustrating was that start from Noah Syndergaard last night? He saved his fantasy outing with double-digit strikeouts, but he could have had a huge game. Jacob deGrom was originally slated to pitch tonight, but his start has been moved back a day. Harvey will pitch on his usual rest, but draws an awful matchup against the Nationals. Harvey has struggled with lefties in the last two seasons and Washington has two of the best left-handed hitters in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Deep GPP flier at best.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Originally, I was planning to fade the Nationals’ offense and to load up on Jacob deGrom. However, now that Matt Harvey is scheduled to pitch, that certainly changes things. In the last two seasons, Harvey has allowed a .345 wOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to lefties. Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy (who should be back in the lineup tonight) are all in play. The lefties are best suited as one-off targets instead of using a full Nationals’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.352 0.164 31.9% 9.1% 17.4% 50.2% OF $3,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.331 0.173 35.2% 8.2% 18.8% 37.0% 3B $3,000 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.368 0.221 35.2% 18.7% 15.6% 38.7% OF $4,800 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.415 0.255 40.2% 5.8% 9.2% 35.1% 2B $3,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.298 0.164 33.3% 5.0% 23.8% 44.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.249 0.114 31.1% 5.0% 28.1% 45.2% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.319 0.183 32.1% 7.0% 17.3% 37.2% C $2,900 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.284 0.041 17.0% 11.9% 17.9% 60.3% SS $2,500 SS $2,400 2B $4,800
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.191 0.019 6.7% 6.2% 24.6% 55.6% P $8,300 P $8,000 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

We haven’t had many exploitable matchups here in the first page of the Grind Down. The Mets are favored tonight, but the over/under is set at 6.5 runs. Tanner Roark may not be the best pitcher in fantasy baseball, but he is a good pitcher in real life. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.333 0.222 36.2% 12.8% 19.8% 35.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.342 0.197 34.7% 6.7% 18.2% 35.4% SS $3,200 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.376 0.296 40.2% 9.0% 19.9% 36.1% OF $3,800 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
4 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.318 0.157 34.5% 9.7% 19.3% 36.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
5 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.349 0.231 42.0% 11.0% 24.5% 35.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.322 0.192 36.2% 11.6% 23.2% 33.6% 1B $2,600 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.267 0.116 24.0% 7.0% 20.4% 36.4% 3B $2,100 3B $3,800 SS $7,600
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.240 0.091 27.5% 5.0% 26.7% 47.1% C $2,000 C $2,200 C $4,300
9 Matt Harvey RIGHT 0.080 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 32.0% 58.3% P $8,700 P $7,900 P $15,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious