MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-03 01:46:03

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Atlanta								NY Yankees
			Anibal Sanchez							Jonathan Loaisiga
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-190							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.343	34.0%	83.3	29.8%	46.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.240	0.214	22.2%	77.8	45.8%	77.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	0.265	22.2%	85.3	17.9%	39.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.270	0.362	40.9%	91.6	21.2%	50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Anibal Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$13,000
	Salary Rank:		13 of 20	Salary Rank:		15 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20
	2017	17	4.16	6.41	21.6%	6.0%	35.6%	37.4%	16.8%
	2018	8	4.05	2.68	23.2%	8.4%	42.1%	26.6%	26.6%
	L14	2	4.18	5.59	27.9%	11.6%	26.9%	42.3%	15.4%

Sanchez has had a nice season overall (4.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%), but finds himself in a tough spot tonight. Not only is he pitching on the road in an American League ballpark, but he’s facing a Yankees’ offense that leads the majors in home runs (137). Throughout his career, Sanchez has been a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a lot of home runs. He checks in as a sizable underdog in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs. We don’t have to look hard to find better pitching options for tonight’s nine-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jonathan Loaisiga
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$15,800
	Salary Rank:		16 of 20	Salary Rank:		8 of 20	Salary Rank:		8 of 20

	2018	3	3.59	1.93	31.6%	14.0%	58.1%	35.5%	19.4%
	L14	2	3.04	3.00	32.4%	10.8%	57.1%	33.3%	28.6%

Loaisiga has been terrific in his first three major league starts, posting a 3.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a ground ball rate of 58%. His control could use a little work, but we shouldn’t be complaining when he has elite ground ball and strikeout rates. Perhaps most importantly, he’s getting respect from the betting markets. He’s one of the largest favorites of the slate, despite a difficult matchup against the Braves. Atlanta’s projected lineup has a .337 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18% against right-handed pitching this season. The common lineup building approach tonight will be to pair a stud (Corey Kluber or Max Scherzer) with a cheap SP2. At his price on DraftKings ($8,300), Loaisiga may fly under the radar.

Quick Breakdown: Loaisiga is an elite tournament play and a secondary cash game option.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are a sneaky offense to target tonight. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium and they get to utilize the DH in this series. They are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his fourth career major league start. If Atlanta is patient, they could really make Jonathan Loaisiga work for outs. Ozzie Albies provides stolen base upside (seven on the season), while Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, and Ronald Acuna all boast at least a .360 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.278	82.7	0.118	24.4%	7.3%	12.0%	46.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,200
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.326	85.9	0.227	36.1%	4.8%	17.8%	36.5%	2B	$4,700	2B	$5,200	2B	$9,400
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.419	90.3	0.203	45.8%	15.0%	17.1%	34.9%	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,100	1B	$9,500
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.408	91.4	0.154	40.9%	11.3%	7.9%	42.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,400
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.329	86.4	0.165	35.7%	5.7%	8.8%	32.6%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,900
6	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.364	92.6	0.211	44.4%	6.2%	28.9%	46.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,200
7	Charlie Culberson	RIGHT	0.270	86.0	0.179	32.2%	7.6%	27.2%	51.7%	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$3,300	SS	$6,600
8	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.343	90.0	0.160	41.0%	16.3%	17.0%	50.0%	3B	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,700	3B	$7,500
9	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.292	87.8	0.157	32.0%	6.3%	24.0%	43.7%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.337	88.1	0.175	36.9%	8.9%	17.9%	42.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ronald Acuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees have plenty of upside tonight against Anibal Sanchez. While his ground ball rate is up this season, he has historically been an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Sanchez has been tough on right-handed hitters this year, but has historically had reverse splits. The way I see it, batters from both sides of the plate are viable tonight. The Yankees are my favorite offense to stack outside of the two in Coors Field. Brett Gardner is dirt cheap for a leadoff man in this offense, while Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Miguel Andujar all boast at least a .350 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.304	87.2	0.148	30.3%	12.1%	15.5%	51.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.412	96.7	0.310	50.0%	14.4%	29.2%	47.1%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,300	RF	$9,600
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.350	88.3	0.260	40.5%	9.8%	13.2%	33.9%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,100
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.304	91.4	0.170	34.7%	8.1%	32.6%	54.4%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,700
5	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.361	89.1	0.205	40.0%	12.5%	19.0%	43.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,200
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.291	88.1	0.256	34.6%	7.1%	27.1%	41.8%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,200
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.354	90.6	0.206	37.1%	3.0%	17.9%	49.7%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,300
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.379	89.9	0.203	37.3%	12.2%	18.9%	41.2%	C	$2,300	C	$3,400	C	$6,300
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.386	88.1	0.242	37.6%	6.1%	25.6%	30.6%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,300
	Team Averages		0.349	89.9	0.222	38.0%	9.5%	22.1%	43.8%

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Greg Bird, Miguel Andujar

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Boston								Washington
			Rick Porcello							Max Scherzer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-170							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.301	0.320	39.7%	88.8	26.2%	35.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.277	0.261	28.6%	86.4	32.5%	36.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.277	0.292	25.1%	87.5	19.6%	54.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.198	0.254	35.2%	87.6	42.2%	37.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$18,100
	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		5 of 20	Salary Rank:		5 of 20
	2017	33	4.28	4.65	20.5%	5.4%	39.2%	38.3%	17.1%
	2018	17	3.72	3.60	22.4%	5.4%	46.4%	31.1%	22.3%
	L14	2	4.36	2.84	19.6%	5.9%	35.1%	43.2%	13.5%

Porcello is one of those pitchers that you never feel great about targeting, but he offers a higher floor than most. In 17 starts this season, he has a 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 5%. With Max Scherzer pitching opposite him, Porcello will be the forgotten man in tonight’s nine-game slate. His matchup against the Nationals isn’t bad, as their projected lineup has a .330 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Porcello is playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and he’ll get to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup, which isn’t usually the case.

Quick Breakdown: Porcello is an excellent tournament play, especially if you are fading Scherzer.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,700	Salary:		$13,300	Salary:		$25,800
	Salary Rank:		1 of 20	Salary Rank:		1 of 20	Salary Rank:		1 of 20
	2017	31	2.98	2.51	34.4%	7.1%	36.5%	26.5%	19.5%
	2018	17	2.40	2.04	37.1%	6.1%	36.5%	31.5%	23.8%
	L14	2	4.00	1.93	23.6%	7.3%	37.8%	36.8%	31.6%

We have two elite arms on the mound tonight in Scherzer and Corey Kluber. It’s hard to go wrong with either, as they have both been close to unhittable this season. In 17 starts, Scherzer has a 2.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 37% and a walk rate of 6%. A matchup against the Red Sox isn’t going to look good on paper, but he’s an elite pitcher that is playing at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and we typically don’t worry about the matchup when it comes to the top aces. I wouldn’t call Scherzer a lock, but he should certainly be on your radar tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Even if you don’t want to target Max Scherzer tonight, we shouldn’t be expecting a bad outing. A successful game from the Red Sox offense would be scoring a few runs, drawing walks, and hopefully limiting Scherzer to six or seven innings. The best leverage play off of Scherzer isn’t the Red Sox offense, it’s Rick Porcello. I try not to make a habit of targeting offenses against elite pitchers. In addition to a 37% strikeout rate, Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.477	92.4	0.311	46.2%	13.0%	13.0%	30.1%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,300
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.408	89.0	0.226	28.6%	12.6%	14.4%	36.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,000
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.472	94.0	0.349	49.2%	10.8%	20.4%	46.4%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,800
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.436	93.1	0.267	38.5%	10.8%	19.4%	39.2%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.375	91.3	0.244	40.0%	5.0%	16.7%	47.9%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,200
6	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.328	87.0	0.121	26.9%	9.2%	15.6%	55.8%	2B	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,300	2B	$6,400
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.345	93.1	0.218	40.6%	7.3%	25.3%	42.7%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,800
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.313	86.6	0.173	33.9%	3.5%	27.9%	41.8%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
9	Rick Porcello	RIGHT								P	$9,100	P	$9,300	P	$18,100
	Team Averages		0.394	90.8	0.239	38.0%	9.0%	19.1%	42.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have a talented offense, but draw a difficult matchup against Rick Porcello. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .292 xwOBA on a 54% ground ball rate. His numbers against lefties are significantly worse — .320 xwOBA with a 40% hard contact rate, but he’s still far from what I would call an exploitable matchup. I’m expecting a low scoring affair tonight and will be limiting my exposure to this game in general. With that said, Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto all bat from the left side and all boast a .375+ wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.387	87.6	0.133	45.2%	6.0%	15.7%	47.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,400
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.337	88.8	0.148	34.0%	9.5%	20.5%	53.3%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,200
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.402	91.0	0.289	43.5%	18.8%	23.3%	36.5%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,900	RF	$8,800
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.394	90.9	0.230	37.8%	9.7%	14.8%	34.0%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,500	3B	$9,300
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.375	89.1	0.213	34.8%	16.0%	18.9%	46.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,000
6	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.303	87.7	0.023	17.5%	6.4%	8.5%	30.0%	1B	$2,700	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,400
7	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.295	81.0	0.102	18.1%	8.1%	15.7%	43.4%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,000	2B	$5,500
8	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.242	82.3	0.059	21.6%	8.3%	23.3%	47.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	C	$5,000
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.236	81.3	0.032	20.0%	0.0%	18.8%	64.0%	P	$11,700	P	$13,300	P	$25,800
	Team Averages		0.330	86.6	0.137	30.3%	9.2%	17.7%	44.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Cincinnati
			James Shields							Luis Castillo
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-200							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.339	28.4%	87.5	17.0%	42.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.376	0.380	43.9%	89.5	20.0%	41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.350	36.1%	88.1	15.3%	34.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.317	33.1%	86.5	24.5%	48.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Shields
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$11,800
	Salary Rank:		18 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20
	2017	21	4.94	5.23	20.0%	10.3%	38.2%	33.3%	19.3%
	2018	17	5.04	4.29	16.2%	9.1%	38.5%	32.3%	15.6%
	L14	2	4.22	1.54	17.7%	7.8%	55.3%	29.0%	21.1%

Shields is not a good pitcher, but you’ll be surprised if you pull up his game log. While he gives up a lot of hits and runs, he typically makes it to at least the seventh inning. We often put him in the same category as the absolute worst pitchers in baseball, but he has scored double-digit fantasy points (DK scoring) in eight of his last nine starts. There aren’t many pitchers in baseball that have accomplished that feat. I bring this up to point out that we shouldn’t always assume someone is a bad play in DFS just because that’s what the rest of the industry thinks. With all of that said, Shields finds himself in a tough spot tonight. The projected lineup for the Reds has a .339 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 20% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Shields is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,300
	Salary Rank:		12 of 20	Salary Rank:		17 of 20	Salary Rank:		17 of 20
	2017	15	3.63	3.12	27.3%	8.9%	58.8%	29.7%	22.1%
	2018	17	4.12	5.85	22.3%	8.6%	45.0%	38.6%	20.6%
	L14	2	3.56	6.52	20.9%	4.7%	55.2%	40.0%	33.3%

Castillo is going to be the super chalk tonight on DraftKings. He draws the best matchup of the slate, he’s a -200 favorite, and he’s only $5,700. While his numbers are down as a whole, I like what I have seen over his last two starts — 3.56 SIERA with a 55% ground ball rate and a 5% walk rate. He still has elite velocity, he just needs to put it all together. The White Sox projected lineup has a .285 xwOBA with a 32% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Even if Castillo gives up a few runs, he should still reach value thanks to his strikeout upside in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo will be popular, but he’s an elite SP2 tonight on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

I plan to be overweight on Luis Castillo tonight (which may take quite a bit of exposure), but I also plan to build a White Sox hedge stack. We’ve seen Castillo get shelled a number of times this season and if the White Sox are able to score ten runs in this home run-friendly ballpark, we will be able to create massive leverage on the field. On the season, Castillo has allowed a .380 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. In addition to a hedge stack, Yoan Moncada is viable in all formats. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that you could play Nick Pivetta and Matt Carpenter in the same lineup (they were facing each other and both had great games) and I may use that approach again tonight with Moncada and Castillo.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.367	93.3	0.206	44.3%	8.7%	35.3%	33.1%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,000
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.332	86.0	0.179	27.3%	4.7%	15.7%	47.7%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,200	2B	$8,100
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.370	91.6	0.186	34.9%	6.0%	17.3%	42.9%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,500
4	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.347	92.5	0.151	37.9%	0.0%	23.6%	45.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,700
5	Leury Garcia	SWITCH	0.284	86.1	0.083	31.0%	3.5%	21.7%	56.1%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
6	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.297	86.4	0.178	29.0%	7.6%	26.7%	46.4%	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,500	SS	$9,200
7	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.311	85.8	0.104	23.8%	9.3%	19.5%	41.0%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
8	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.257	85.0	0.088	26.1%	5.6%	26.8%	38.7%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,700
9	James Shields	RIGHT	0.000		0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$6,200	P	$5,900	P	$11,800
	Team Averages		0.285	88.3	0.131	28.3%	5.0%	31.8%	39.0%

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds would likely be the highest owned offense of the slate if we didn’t have a game in Coors Field. Luckily, the Rockies and Giants will both garner ownership and help keep the Reds’ ownership at a reasonable level. They draw an exploitable matchup against James Shields, who has allowed a .339 xwOBA to lefties and a .350 xwOBA to righties. Shields is a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate and he gives up a lot of home runs. A full stack is certainly in play here, as each of the first six batters in the Reds’ projected lineup has a .335+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.361	90.4	0.213	41.6%	8.6%	21.9%	51.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
2	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.338	85.9	0.114	38.8%	9.6%	17.9%	40.6%	C	$3,100	C	$3,800	C	$7,700
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.464	89.5	0.168	41.1%	17.8%	12.0%	32.7%	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,800	1B	$8,600
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.352	86.7	0.181	38.8%	7.6%	17.2%	39.2%	2B	$3,700	2B	$5,000	2B	$10,000
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.398	91.4	0.257	48.3%	8.2%	19.2%	36.1%	3B	$3,900	3B	$5,100	3B	$9,500
6	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.381	90.7	0.117	43.8%	13.7%	13.3%	40.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,400
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.305	82.6	0.110	31.3%	5.2%	12.4%	36.9%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,500	SS	$9,000
8	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.202	84.4	0.056	30.0%	10.0%	40.0%	80.0%	P	$7,100	P	$5,700	P	$11,300
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.249	78.7	0.072	20.2%	11.3%	25.5%	46.3%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.339	86.7	0.143	37.1%	10.2%	19.9%	44.8%

Elite Plays – Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart (DK), Eugenio Suarez (GPP), Jesse Winker (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tucker Barnhart (FD), Eugenio Suarez (Cash), Jesse Winker (Cash)

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Miami
			Nathan Eovaldi							Wei-Yin Chen
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -115							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	0.361	33.3%	87.4	17.0%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.250	0.251	36.4%	89.3	32.0%	54.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.256	0.288	28.3%	90.6	26.7%	49.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.396	0.345	33.8%	86.3	12.3%	30.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nathan Eovaldi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$17,200
	Salary Rank:		17 of 20	Salary Rank:		7 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20

	2018	6	3.59	4.08	22.4%	3.7%	47.4%	30.6%	24.5%
	L14	2	2.94	3.00	31.1%	4.4%	35.7%	35.7%	28.6%

Eovaldi is off to a good start this season, posting a 3.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 4%. While the numbers are encouraging and while the Rays have shown an ability to get the most out of their pitching staff over the years, I’m not sure he can sustain this success the rest of the season. He has always had elite velocity, but it is always accompanied by a below-average strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate this season is less than 9%. The one difference this year is his pitch selection. He is throwing a cutter 23% of the time (previous career high was 7%). Even though he may not be an elite strikeout pitcher moving forward, that doesn’t mean that we can’t target him in a favorable matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has a .307 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Eovaldi is a viable mid-range target in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Wei-Yin Chen
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:		$9,300
	Salary Rank:		19 of 20	Salary Rank:		18 of 20	Salary Rank:		18 of 20
	2017	5	4.61	3.82	18.9%	6.8%	36.6%	29.9%	24.7%
	2018	12	5.20	6.14	16.1%	9.8%	35.2%	34.2%	15.0%
	L14	2	4.22	7.20	17.8%	4.4%	38.2%	37.1%	17.1%

Chen continues to struggle. Ever since coming over from the Orioles, he hasn’t been able to establish any kind of momentum. In his 12 starts this season, he has a 5.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has struggled with right-handed power throughout his career. A matchup against the Rays is enticing, but not enough to warrant consideration. While their lineup isn’t loaded with right-handed power, they do have four righties with at least a .325 xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chen in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have one of the easiest matchups of the slate to breakdown. On the season, Wei-Yin Chen has held lefties to a .250 xwOBA on a 55% ground ball rate. Meanwhile, he has allowed a .345 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties. He also has a 12% k-rate and a 31% ground ball rate when facing batters from the right side of the plate. Matt Duffy (.327 xwOBA), Wilson Ramos (.418 xwOBA), C.J. Cron (.329 xwOBA), and Daniel Robertson (.411 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and all have good numbers against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.200	79.1	0.192	12.5%	7.1%	35.7%	50.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,300
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.327	89.0	0.080	34.5%	7.3%	20.7%	58.6%	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,300
3	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.418	91.9	0.213	37.7%	5.1%	17.7%	47.5%	C	$3,000	C	$3,900	C	$7,800
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.329	89.8	0.218	40.4%	7.1%	31.6%	40.4%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,300
5	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.347	83.8	0.280	52.6%	13.8%	20.7%	52.6%	1B	$2,600	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
6	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.411	85.2	0.230	31.4%	17.1%	14.5%	45.1%	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,000	2B	$5,900
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.273	87.3	0.167	28.0%	3.8%	27.5%	26.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,500
8	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.248	86.6	0.174	45.5%	4.2%	50.0%	27.3%	SS	$2,700	2B/SS	$3,700	SS	$7,400
9	Nathan Eovaldi	RIGHT								P	$6,300	P	$8,700	P	$17,200
	Team Averages		0.319	86.6	0.194	35.3%	8.2%	27.3%	43.4%

Elite Plays – Daniel Robertson, Matt Duffy (FD), Wilson Ramos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy (DK), Wilson Ramos (FD), C.J. Cron

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins have been one of the worst offenses in baseball this season. It doesn’t help that their home park caters to pitching more than it does to hitting. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Nathan Eovaldi, who has held right-handed hitters to a .288 xwOBA and a 28% hard contact rate. He has struggled a bit against lefties, allowing a .361 xwOBA with a 33% hard contact rate. Outside of Derek Dietrich (.350 xwOBA against righties) and Justin Bour (.395 xwOBA against righties) as one-offs, this is an easy offense to avoid.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.350	88.4	0.174	37.3%	5.7%	22.3%	39.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
2	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.352	89.9	0.104	37.8%	8.1%	19.8%	50.6%	OF	$3,000	3B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.398	91.4	0.266	45.5%	6.6%	16.3%	44.1%	C	$3,500	C	$4,600	C	$9,300
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.395	90.1	0.247	41.7%	17.1%	24.1%	37.3%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,800
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.301	87.6	0.121	36.0%	5.3%	19.2%	50.5%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
6	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.314	88.2	0.181	38.1%	4.5%	24.7%	45.9%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.294	84.9	0.104	31.8%	4.5%	14.9%	55.9%	3B	$2,200	3B/SS	$2,900	SS	$5,900
8	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.289	88.9	0.150	42.1%	3.9%	33.0%	50.4%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,900
9	Wei-Yin Chen	LEFT	0.068	76.6	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	41.7%	100.0%	P	$5,900	P	$4,600	P	$9,300
	Team Averages		0.307	87.3	0.150	34.5%	6.2%	24.0%	52.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich (GPP), Justin Bour (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Milwaukee
			Kyle Gibson							Brent Suter
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-136							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	0.333	37.0%	87.1	23.3%	43.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.312	0.339	35.4%	84.3	17.1%	39.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.325	36.6%	88.6	23.2%	51.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.317	30.6%	83.3	20.9%	32.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Gibson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,300
	Salary Rank:		8 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20
	2017	29	4.67	5.07	17.5%	8.7%	50.8%	35.8%	15.4%
	2018	16	4.12	3.48	23.3%	10.0%	47.9%	36.7%	18.9%
	L14	2	4.07	4.85	20.3%	6.8%	38.1%	31.0%	21.4%

Gibson has improved this season. In 16 starts, he has a 4.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a ground ball rate of 48%. These are all respectable numbers and we’ve actually been able to target him a few times this season. Unfortunately, tonight is not one of those times. He is pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark and he draws a difficult matchup against the Brewers, whose projected lineup has a .343 xwOBA with a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gibson in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brent Suter
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		11 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20	Salary Rank:		15 of 20
	2017	14	4.37	3.42	18.8%	6.5%	45.2%	28.9%	23.7%
	2018	15	4.07	4.28	20.0%	4.9%	34.0%	31.7%	19.9%
	L14	2	3.73	4.15	22.5%	4.1%	38.2%	25.7%	22.9%

There isn’t anything that jumps off the page when looking at Suter’s stats, but he continues to produce at a high level. He has scored at least 16 fantasy points (DK scoring) in nine of his last ten starts, which shows how high of a floor he has. His great control allows him to pitch deep into games even though he rarely cracks the 100-pitch mark. His matchup against the Twins is enticing, as they have struggled to hit left-handed pitching all season. In fact, their projected lineup has a .301 xwOBA with a 25% k-rate against southpaws. Suter is cheap and is one of my favorite value plays of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: While Castillo may have the higher ceiling, Suter has the higher floor. Both are intriguing SP2 plays tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have struggled against left-handed pitching all season. Even their best right-handed hitters (Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano) have struggled against lefties. While they are playing in a good ballpark for offensive production, I’m not sure that any hitter in this lineup deserves consideration tonight. On the season, Brent Suter has held right-handed hitters to a .317 xwOBA and a 31% hard contact rate. There are better matchups to exploit, so I’ll be fading the Twins’ offense completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.265	85.0	0.095	20.8%	9.9%	22.5%	37.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	LF	$5,700
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.311	86.3	0.188	37.4%	3.8%	17.9%	35.4%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,800
3	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.294	88.2	0.126	37.0%	9.3%	22.4%	41.1%	3B	$3,400	3B/SS	$4,700	3B	$9,300
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.266	85.4	0.114	22.8%	13.4%	15.9%	42.1%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,700
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.368	91.0	0.299	38.7%	10.3%	18.4%	35.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,800
6	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.233	79.5	0.130	23.1%	6.7%	26.7%	40.5%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,600
7	Jake Cave	LEFT	0.379	89.5	0.571	33.3%	12.5%	50.0%	0.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,800
8	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.288	85.4	0.042	33.3%	9.4%	22.6%	41.7%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Kyle Gibson	RIGHT								P	$7,700	P	$7,800	P	$15,300
	Team Averages		0.301	86.3	0.196	30.8%	9.4%	24.6%	34.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Milwaukee

The Brewers are the offense to load up on in this game. Kyle Gibson allows a lot of hard contact and has given up a .325+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The Brewers are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they have sneaky power (ninth in the majors in home runs), and they are aggressive on the base paths (fourth in the majors in stolen bases). After acquiring Brad Miller, they have yet another good lefty to throw at these right-handed pitchers. If you are building multiple lineups, make a Brewers’ stack and thank me later (hopefully).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.339	91.9	0.184	44.6%	11.2%	31.7%	35.9%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,400	2B	$6,900
2	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.389	92.2	0.318	46.5%	11.4%	29.3%	33.8%	1B	$4,100	1B/OF	$5,000	1B	$9,500
3	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.401	90.7	0.305	44.9%	7.7%	27.0%	30.7%	1B	$3,900	1B	$5,300	1B	$9,500
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.406	90.4	0.282	41.7%	14.8%	18.0%	35.0%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,200
5	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.328	90.2	0.201	34.4%	4.0%	23.6%	48.4%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,100	LF	$8,100
6	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.251	85.9	0.090	29.7%	5.9%	30.2%	64.2%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,700
7	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.343	79.2	0.462	50.0%	7.1%	21.4%	70.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,600
8	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.302	85.8	0.143	34.4%	4.8%	19.8%	41.8%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,900
9	Brent Suter	LEFT	0.332	76.7	0.167	33.3%	9.1%	18.2%	53.8%	P	$7,200	P	$6,500	P	$12,800
	Team Averages		0.343	87.0	0.239	39.9%	8.4%	24.4%	46.0%

Elite Plays – Brad Miller, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 2nd

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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