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MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-13 02:00:59

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Washington
atlantamlb Mike Foltynewicz washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-230 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.327 33.5% 8.7% 20.4% 34.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.257 0.258 24.0% 7.8% 30.8% 45.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.298 25.5% 5.1% 21.0% 48.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.300 29.6% 6.5% 28.3% 39.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Foltynewicz
michael-foltynewicz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 4.13 4.31 21.1% 6.7% 41.2% 29.8% 20.4%
2017 11 4.22 3.48 20.0% 6.9% 43.5% 27.8% 17.2%

Foltynewicz has a track record of pitching well in difficult matchups and struggling in easy matchups, which obviously makes him an unlikeable character in the DFS world. If the trend continues, he should pitch well tonight against a Nationals’ offense that is ranked fourth in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. If you want to play Foltynewicz, you will be going on that quest alone. His numbers aren’t bad this season, but he comes into the game as a huge underdog on the road against a talented offense.

Quick Breakdown: Wait for a better matchup for Foltynewicz and then watch him get blown up (again).

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,400 Salary: $12,700 Salary: $24,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.18 3.60 30.6% 7.4% 39.5% 26.6% 21.4%
2017 12 3.38 2.80 27.6% 6.8% 47.1% 27.5% 21.3%

Strasburg is having another excellent season. He was slightly bested by Clayton Kershaw in his last start, but he still owns a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He induces a lot of soft contact and his ground ball rate is up nearly 8% this year. He is the top pitching option in tonight’s nine-game slate, as he takes on a Braves’ offense that is still missing Freddie Freeman. Strasburg pitches well at home in Nationals Park, which is one of the best pitcher’s parks in all of baseball. The Braves aren’t a high-strikeout offense, but I typically don’t factor that in as much with elite arms like Strasburg.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is the top pitching option in the slate. He is an elite play in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Outside of Freddie Freeman, the Braves have not hit Stephen Strasburg well in the past. Their current roster has a .316 wOBA with 31 strikeouts in 108 at-bats against him. To make matters worse, they are playing in Washington, which has one of the best pitcher’s parks in all of baseball. With the worst matchup and the lowest implied run total in the slate, we can avoid the Braves in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.319 0.297 0.107 26.6% 8.5% 13.4% 42.5% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.328 0.309 0.123 29.0% 3.4% 12.1% 46.9% 2B $2,500 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.337 0.359 0.135 33.7% 11.4% 16.4% 42.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.337 0.352 0.216 36.7% 4.9% 23.6% 40.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.341 0.339 0.228 37.7% 7.7% 25.9% 33.3% 1B $2,400 1B/OF $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.367 0.349 0.142 41.9% 8.2% 25.3% 42.4% C $2,400 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Rio Ruiz LEFT 0.262 0.315 0.100 31.8% 9.0% 23.9% 63.6% 3B $2,100 3B $2,600 3B $5,200
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.272 0.298 0.098 31.3% 9.9% 24.8% 49.0% SS $2,400 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
9 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.093 0.136 0.021 20.7% 1.8% 45.5% 50.0% P $7,900 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are large favorites tonight at home against the Braves, but I’m not sure they deserve their 5.25 implied team run total. Mike Foltynewicz is at the very least an average major league pitcher. He has decent strikeout rate, he doesn’t walk many batters, and he induces a lot of soft contact. Over the last two seasons, he has held righties under a .300 xwOBA. He has struggled a bit against lefties, allowing a .327 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are borderline elite plays at their respective positions and Trea Turner is worth a look at a super thin shortstop position. There are some options here, but I’m not as high on the Nationals as I am a few other offenses in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.385 0.333 0.231 31.4% 4.6% 18.3% 45.6% SS $4,400 SS $5,300 IF/OF $10,200
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.285 0.237 0.139 29.3% 4.8% 26.2% 44.6% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 RF $5,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.381 0.394 0.244 35.1% 18.7% 16.0% 40.0% OF $4,600 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.328 0.335 0.192 35.5% 5.7% 23.1% 45.2% 1B $4,000 1B $5,100 1B $10,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.413 0.398 0.248 38.2% 6.5% 9.0% 35.4% 2B $3,800 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.344 0.346 0.192 34.8% 9.5% 17.7% 37.0% 3B $3,900 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.308 0.320 0.164 33.1% 6.7% 18.1% 36.6% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.286 0.273 0.161 32.0% 5.7% 31.4% 42.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.180 0.201 0.075 10.2% 3.3% 16.4% 70.0% P $11,400 P $12,700 P $24,800

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Colorado Pittsburgh
coloradomlb Kyle Freeland pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-140 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.291 39.5% 6.1% 27.3% 39.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.307 31.4% 6.3% 17.1% 52.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.311 31.6% 10.3% 11.2% 62.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.288 33.0% 4.3% 23.6% 52.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Freeland
kyle-freeland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 5 of 18 Salary Rank: 5 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 4.82 3.34 14.8% 9.4% 57.5% 33.2% 20.5%

Freeland has an elite ground ball rate, but doesn’t rack up enough strikeouts to warrant consideration on a regular basis. In 12 starts this season, he has a 4.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15%, both of which are unappealing. The Pirates are a below-average offense against left-handed pitching, but they are still favored in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. Freeland may be able to limit the damage against Pittsburgh, but he doesn’t have enough upside to make his way into any of my lineups.

Quick Breakdown: I will be avoiding Freeland in lieu of pitchers with a little more upside.

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 10 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 6 4.17 3.31 20.1% 8.7% 52.9% 28.9% 18.3%

Taillon is making his first start since coming off of the DL. We are typically concerned with a pitch count in these situations, but he pitched six innings in a rehab start and threw 97 MPH while striking out nine batters. The Rockies have been red hot at the plate, but Taillon gets to face them at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He has a league average strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate of 53%. Assuming the Pirates let him throw 95+ pitches tonight, he has a good chance to exceed value on multi-pitcher sites (DraftKings and FantasyDraft).

Quick Breakdown: Taillon isn’t safe for cash games, but has some appeal if you are making multiple tournament lineups.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies are a top ten offense against right-handed pitching this season, but some of that is aided by half of their games being played in Coors Field. They have a low implied run total tonight against Jameson Taillon, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. Taillon also induces a high ground ball rate against batters from both sides, which limits the upside of the opposing offense. Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Mark Reynolds all have high fly-ball rates if you want to take a chance on them as one-off GPP targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.413 0.371 0.284 38.7% 7.2% 18.3% 31.5% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 CF $10,800
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.358 0.369 0.113 31.8% 9.2% 12.6% 53.4% 2B $3,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.375 0.345 0.268 37.3% 8.3% 14.7% 35.7% 3B $4,100 3B $4,800 3B $9,300
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.394 0.332 0.238 30.8% 9.3% 25.3% 39.7% 1B $4,000 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.356 0.346 0.188 33.6% 10.5% 17.8% 43.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.317 0.297 0.149 30.9% 6.0% 25.5% 56.6% OF $3,300 1B/OF $4,200 LF $8,100
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.342 0.323 0.245 36.6% 8.6% 31.6% 29.8% SS $3,500 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.324 0.291 0.124 21.4% 11.5% 20.5% 43.8% C $2,800 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Kyle Freeland LEFT 0.437 0.244 0.333 33.3% 7.1% 28.6% 57.1% P $7,700 P $8,100 P $15,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a fairly high implied run total tonight, but Kyle Freeland has a 62% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters this season. Nearly two-thirds of batted balls against Freeland have been on the ground, which makes it incredibly tough to hit for extra bases against him. It’s no surprise that Freeland has held righties to a .311 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate. The two batters with an above-average fly-ball rate in this Pirates’ lineup are Josh Harrison and Andrew McCutchen, who make intriguing one-off targets. If Elias Diaz is batting in the middle of the lineup again tonight, he makes for an elite value play in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.314 0.331 0.156 27.9% 13.3% 14.4% 45.7% SS $3,100 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.369 0.292 0.183 32.8% 4.5% 15.3% 37.6% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $4,200 2B $8,100
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.309 0.295 0.171 28.2% 8.6% 27.2% 48.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.400 0.373 0.180 44.8% 14.6% 25.0% 59.8% 3B $3,100 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
5 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.296 0.239 0.194 17.2% 7.7% 17.9% 62.1% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
6 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.368 0.371 0.253 37.3% 13.2% 17.6% 38.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
7 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.269 0.302 0.188 25.5% 9.0% 19.2% 56.4% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
8 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.312 0.318 0.125 42.9% 11.1% 11.1% 57.1% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.125 0.097 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 42.9% 66.7% P $8,300 P $6,800 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Elias Diaz (if batting in the middle of the lineup)

Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, David Freese, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs NY Mets
cubsmlb John Lackey nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-137 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.346 35.2% 8.4% 20.1% 45.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.312 32.4% 7.7% 23.8% 42.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.301 35.5% 5.9% 26.7% 38.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.309 34.1% 6.7% 27.7% 47.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey
john-lackey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 5 of 18 Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 3.83 3.35 24.1% 7.1% 41.0% 34.4% 16.2%
2017 12 3.91 5.12 23.3% 6.8% 43.4% 37.7% 14.2%

Lackey has maintained an above-average strikeout rate this season, but the rest of his numbers are trending in the wrong direction. He currently owns a 3.91 SIERA with a hard contact rate of 38%. He has specifically struggled against lefties, allowing a .346 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact in the last two seasons combined. The Mets may not be the most potent offense in baseball, but they have some very good left-handed bats in their lineup. When you add in the fact that Jacob deGrom is pitching opposite him, Lackey becomes an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Bad matchup for Lackey and we have to worry about run support. He can be avoided in all formats.

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,700 Salary: $10,200 Salary: $19,800
Salary Rank: 3 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.66 3.04 23.7% 6.0% 45.6% 31.3% 19.0%
2017 12 3.49 4.75 29.9% 9.6% 43.9% 37.6% 20.1%

DeGrom has given up a lot of runs this season (4.75 ERA), but he has a .350 BABIP and a 20% HR/FB rate. We should expect some serious regression in his favor moving forward. The rest of his statistics all check out, as he has a 30% strikeout rate and a 14.7% swinging strike rate. The velocity is up and the strikeouts have come in bunches. People are often scared to target pitchers against the Cubs, but many don’t realize that they are ranked 24th in team wOBA and 18th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Stephen Strasburg is the clear number one in this slate, but deGrom is the clear number two.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is viable in tournaments and potentially as an SP2 in cash games if you can find enough value to roster him with Strasburg.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw one of the worst matchups in the entire slate. Jacob deGrom has allowed a lot of hard contact and a lot of home runs this season, but he also has a 30% strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. The Cubs have a low implied run total and outside of Kris Bryant, the Cubs have struggled against deGrom in the past.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.370 0.355 0.311 33.3% 12.7% 31.0% 46.2% 2B $2,600 2B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.352 0.241 36.9% 9.9% 22.3% 30.9% 3B $3,500 3B $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.387 0.380 0.249 36.7% 12.4% 15.5% 37.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.351 0.369 0.176 33.5% 15.6% 11.7% 46.6% OF $2,600 2B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,700
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.296 0.314 0.115 27.1% 8.3% 13.4% 46.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.334 0.307 0.187 32.3% 8.9% 27.9% 54.0% C $2,200 C $2,800 IF/OF $5,600
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.294 0.292 0.147 27.1% 7.5% 22.3% 43.1% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
8 John Lackey RIGHT 0.148 0.167 0.048 22.2% 2.9% 44.1% 56.3% P $8,400 P $7,700 P $15,200
9 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.298 0.354 0.222 36.5% 12.0% 29.5% 42.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are an offense that should fly under the radar, even though they are facing a pitcher with a 38% hard contact rate. Not only does John Lackey give up a lot of hard contact, but he also gives up a lot of medium contact. Only 14% of batted balls in play against him are from soft contact. Lackey does have a good track record against New York, but he has allowed a .346 xwOBA to lefties in the last two seasons. The one through six batters are viable in tournaments and you can even stack them up at sub-5% ownership. For cash games, Asdrubal Cabrera is the only hitter on my radar thanks to a super thin shortstop position.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.373 0.369 0.257 44.0% 12.3% 24.0% 35.9% OF $4,100 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.335 0.325 0.190 35.0% 7.2% 17.9% 37.6% SS $2,900 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.353 0.357 0.242 38.2% 8.3% 20.2% 36.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.372 0.369 0.296 41.8% 9.2% 20.6% 35.5% OF $3,600 1B/OF $4,700 RF $9,300
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.335 0.351 0.184 33.9% 9.2% 18.1% 36.8% 2B $3,300 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.361 0.382 0.239 40.5% 11.8% 21.4% 33.7% 1B $2,900 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
7 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.297 0.284 0.129 29.6% 6.1% 16.2% 37.9% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,400 3B $6,600
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.281 0.304 0.117 32.6% 6.4% 16.7% 47.8% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.249 0.249 0.037 27.1% 4.8% 17.7% 57.1% P $9,700 P $10,200 P $19,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Neil Walker, Lucas Duda

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Boston
philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff bostonmlb Rick Porcello
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-220 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.318 31.3% 6.8% 17.8% 37.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.307 35.3% 4.1% 21.6% 37.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.289 30.0% 5.2% 23.3% 44.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.320 31.7% 3.6% 21.2% 45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 17 of 18 Salary Rank: 17 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.05 3.65 20.6% 5.2% 40.7% 30.8% 20.0%
2017 12 4.60 5.15 19.5% 8.5% 39.2% 30.5% 14.8%

Eickhoff is trending in the wrong direction, after a pretty solid 2016 campaign. In 12 starts this season, he has a 4.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He isn’t inducing as much soft contact this season and his command hasn’t been as sharp. The struggle should continue tonight against the Red Sox, who have the highest implied run total in the slate. We know how good of a hitter’s park Fenway is, especially with a mediocre pitcher on the mound.

Quick Breakdown: Eickhoff is an easy fade in all formats.

Rick Porcello
rick-porcello-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 4 of 18 Salary Rank: 4 of 18 Salary Rank: 4 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.78 3.15 21.2% 3.6% 43.1% 30.0% 16.9%
2017 13 3.90 4.46 21.8% 4.5% 37.4% 42.2% 18.3%

Porcello should gain some traction as an SP2 tonight. His ERA is up this season, but his advanced statistics are nearly identical to 2016. In 13 starts, he has a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. His biggest problem has been his hard contact (42%), which is shockingly high. The good news is that he gets to face a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 25th in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. We shouldn’t expect a complete game shutout from Porcello, but seven strong innings with a strikeout per inning and a few runs allowed isn’t out of the question. At his price point, I’ll gladly take that from my SP2 in cash games.

Quick Breakdown: Porcello is a little expensive as an SP1 on FanDuel, but he is firmly in play as an SP2 on both DraftKings and FantasyDraft.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have been a team to stream right-handed pitchers against recently. If you look at their projected lineup below, they don’t have a single batters with a .340 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Rick Porcello has allowed a lot of hard contact this season, but this is the Phillies. Odubel Herrera and Michael Saunders are viable one-off targets in tournaments, but the rest of the offense can be avoided tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.337 0.312 0.159 29.2% 8.4% 20.2% 43.1% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.313 0.300 0.137 33.0% 9.4% 30.6% 48.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
3 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.312 0.329 0.140 35.3% 7.1% 18.5% 60.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.328 0.329 0.211 37.7% 5.3% 22.9% 42.0% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.318 0.318 0.188 36.7% 10.0% 26.6% 39.0% OF $2,400 OF $2,700 RF $5,200
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.292 0.321 0.150 29.5% 6.5% 16.2% 44.7% 3B $2,800 3B $2,400 3B $4,800
7 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.301 0.336 0.099 35.0% 8.5% 17.6% 39.3% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.288 0.307 0.161 31.8% 6.5% 29.5% 46.8% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.307 0.275 0.177 28.0% 5.5% 21.5% 40.2% SS $2,400 SS $2,600 SS $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Michael Saunders

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

We have yet another opportunity for the Red Sox offense to let us down. They have been polar opposites from the Yankees, who seem to have a big offensive outing every time they have a favorable matchup. Boston seems to score three runs every time they are in a good spot. It’s frustrating, but we can go right back to the well tonight against Jerad Eickhoff, who has been nearly as effective this season. His SIERA, medium contact, and walk rate are all up from a season ago. The Red Sox aren’t my favorite stack in the slate, but they are in my top three.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.376 0.334 0.203 34.0% 8.1% 10.8% 42.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.353 0.328 0.127 32.6% 8.0% 9.7% 50.3% 2B $3,300 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.346 0.295 0.142 29.5% 7.4% 16.7% 47.7% SS $3,700 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.316 0.359 0.194 38.7% 8.8% 23.0% 39.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
5 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.351 0.332 0.198 36.7% 8.7% 15.3% 35.7% OF $2,800 OF $5,100 LF $9,900
6 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.345 0.344 0.184 37.3% 9.6% 19.7% 48.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.355 0.360 0.235 37.8% 11.1% 21.6% 45.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
8 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.289 0.333 0.197 43.1% 7.7% 26.9% 43.1% 3B $2,700 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.305 0.280 0.143 34.2% 6.3% 25.3% 43.4% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,200

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi (FD)

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi (DK), Dustin Pedroia, Mitch Moreland, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Texas Houston
texasmlb Yu Darvish houstonmlb Joe Musgrove
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-115 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.276 34.5% 9.1% 30.8% 44.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.312 33.1% 7.9% 20.6% 46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.291 29.0% 7.7% 28.2% 35.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.311 30.8% 5.9% 19.9% 40.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yu Darvish
yu-darvish-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 3 of 18 Salary Rank: 3 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 3.08 3.41 31.7% 7.5% 40.4% 30.0% 22.8%
2017 13 3.90 3.18 26.5% 9.5% 38.1% 33.2% 15.6%

On paper, we would never want to target Darvish against the Astros at full price. On the season, Houston is ranked first in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. It’s rare to find an offense that has power and strikes out less often than everyone else, but that’s what we’ve seen from Houston this season. The only reason to play Darvish tonight is his discounted price point. He is considerably cheaper than normal, especially on DraftKings ($8,800). If you are playing Darvish tonight, you are betting on his talent, not his matchup.

Quick Breakdown: This may be the first time all season that I’ve considered a right-handed pitcher against the Astros. I should note that Darvish is strictly a GPP play.

Joe Musgrove
joseph-musgrove-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 11 of 18 Salary Rank: 8 of 18 Salary Rank: 7 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 3.98 4.06 21.5% 6.3% 43.4% 34.6% 18.1%
2017 10 4.52 4.89 18.8% 7.4% 42.9% 28.7% 18.0%

Musgrove is making his first start in nearly three weeks, after being placed on the DL with a shoulder injury. He didn’t experience any discomfort after his last bullpen session, so the Astros will start him tonight against the Rangers. Musgrove’s strikeout rate has dipped considerably this season and his SIERA is up to 4.52. The Rangers are a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching, but aren’t really a team that we specifically target righties against.

Quick Breakdown: In his first start back, it doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach with Musgrove.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Since the start of last season, Joe Musgrove has nearly identical splits to left and right-handed hitters. During that stretch, he has allowed a .312 xwOBA to lefties and a .311 xwOBA to righties. He gives up a slightly higher hard contact rate to lefties, but also has a higher ground ball rate. All in all, we shouldn’t given an edge to batters from either side of the plate. The Rangers aren’t an offense that I plan to have a lot of exposure to, but Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor, and Jonathan Lucroy are viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.324 0.375 0.141 40.9% 12.9% 21.8% 48.5% OF $3,800 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.341 0.321 0.141 27.4% 7.7% 13.5% 46.7% SS $3,300 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.344 0.337 0.190 30.5% 7.9% 18.6% 44.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.360 0.367 0.207 34.0% 6.6% 10.6% 40.0% 3B $3,800 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.325 0.298 0.234 34.2% 3.2% 21.9% 39.7% 2B $3,100 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
6 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.350 0.334 0.174 31.1% 7.4% 14.8% 42.7% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,400
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.324 0.303 0.289 41.4% 12.5% 41.1% 24.1% 1B $3,700 3B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
8 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.298 0.273 0.137 31.6% 9.4% 34.3% 51.7% OF $2,300 1B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $5,100
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.290 0.241 0.094 21.3% 7.3% 27.0% 54.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Houston

For cash game purposes, it makes sense to avoid both Yu Darvish and the Astros’ offense. We have an elite pitcher facing an elite offense, so the range of outcomes is fairly broad. In tournaments, I plan to have a little exposure to both sides. We know that Darvish is capable of a strong outing and we also know that the Astros have had success against top pitchers all season. I’m not sure an Astros’ stack is the route I will be taking, but George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Brian McCann are intriguing one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.333 0.332 0.173 31.8% 10.4% 24.9% 49.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.358 0.350 0.172 31.2% 9.4% 11.5% 37.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.394 0.371 0.194 31.6% 7.7% 10.0% 44.3% 2B $3,400 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.371 0.366 0.202 37.1% 10.5% 21.6% 49.2% SS $3,600 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
5 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.337 0.309 0.208 32.2% 5.9% 18.2% 46.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.332 0.352 0.174 37.3% 11.1% 18.1% 35.2% C $3,200 C $4,400 C $8,700
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.333 0.303 0.182 33.9% 6.2% 20.4% 46.4% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $4,600 1B $9,000
8 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.348 0.315 0.178 31.4% 3.3% 11.4% 43.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
9 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.311 0.316 0.173 31.9% 6.7% 21.7% 35.3% 3B $2,500 3B $3,200 3B $6,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious