MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 14th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Baltimore at Boston – 1:05 PM ET
| Baltimore | Boston | ||||||||||||||
 | Alex Cobb |  | Hector Velazquez | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| BOS-160 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.295 | 0.324 | 37.4% | 9.2% | 19.7% | 42.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.343 | 0.356 | 31.4% | 9.6% | 23.1% | 25.7% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.311 | 0.331 | 36.6% | 3.5% | 15.5% | 51.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.263 | 0.277 | 33.3% | 5.0% | 16.3% | 55.6% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Alex Cobb | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $12,300 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 24 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 29 | 4.48 | 3.66 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 47.8% | 36.9% | 14.9% | |
Cobb will make his 2018 debut for the Orioles after going through an extended spring training. He threw 93 pitches in his last outing and should be close to being stretched out, but he has the unfortunate task of making his debut in Fenway Park against a Red Sox team that doesn’t strike out a ton against right-handers. Add in the fact that Cobb doesn’t strikeout a lot of batters to begin with, and this is a spot where I prefer fading Cobb.
Quick Breakdown: Cobb doesn’t possess the strikeout ability I’d want in a pitcher, and the matchup is enough for me to fade him.
| Hector Velazquez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $11,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 22 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3 | 4.32 | 2.92 | 19.8% | 7.3% | 42.9% | 30.0% | 11.4% | |
| 2018 | 1 | 3.97 | 3.12 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 50.0% | 39.3% | 17.9% | |
Velazquez is expected to make another spot start while Drew Pomeranz makes his way back from injury. Velazquez was effective in his last outing, allowing just one run over 5 2/3 innings while striking out five in the win. The jury is still out on how effective of a major league starter Velazquez can be, but given how right-handed heavy this Orioles lineup may be, I don’t hate him as a YOLO GPP punt. There is some strikeout upside if he can navigate around the powerful left-handed bats.
Quick Breakdown: Velazquez is nothing more than a YOLO SP2 tournament play if you absolutely need some savings. Left-handers have been his kryptonite so far, so keep an eye out on the Orioles’ lineup if it’s left-handed heavy.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.360 | 0.212 | 34.4% | 7.1% | 22.5% | 50.5% | OF | $3,000 | 1B/OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,900 |
| 2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.358 | 0.192 | 36.1% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 42.7% | SS | $4,500 | SS | $5,000 | 3B | $10,000 |
| 3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.312 | 0.181 | 33.6% | 3.8% | 21.1% | 42.3% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,400 |
| 4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.319 | 0.192 | 30.8% | 3.3% | 19.0% | 44.6% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,500 |
| 5 | Pedro Alvarez | LEFT | 0.346 | 0.338 | 0.125 | 30.3% | 14.3% | 26.8% | 42.4% | OF | $2,300 | 1B/3B | $3,000 | 1B | $6,000 |
| 6 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.313 | 0.341 | 0.225 | 42.7% | 12.5% | 34.5% | 39.4% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B | $3,100 | IF/OF | $5,500 |
| 7 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.317 | 0.165 | 39.3% | 5.4% | 29.8% | 49.0% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,300 | SS | $7,300 |
| 8 | Anthony Santander | SWITCH | 0.286 | 0.272 | 0.149 | 34.2% | 2.0% | 14.3% | 31.7% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,900 | LF | $5,700 |
| 9 | Caleb Joseph | RIGHT | 0.266 | 0.254 | 0.125 | 25.3% | 3.2% | 29.5% | 47.2% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,500 |
Velazquez has struggled against left-handers and the Orioles have two powerful ones in Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez. Both of them are fairly boom/bust though and could easily strikeout. Both are fine in tournaments if you want to chase their upside.
Elite Plays – Pedro Alvarez, Chris Davis
Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop
Stackability – YELLOW
Boston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.354 | 0.190 | 37.4% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 39.3% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,400 | RF | $10,100 |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.346 | 0.346 | 0.177 | 35.4% | 10.7% | 16.2% | 38.4% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,900 |
| 3 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.412 | 0.343 | 49.2% | 9.4% | 27.6% | 42.7% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $10,000 |
| 4 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.303 | 0.201 | 37.3% | 7.2% | 21.3% | 47.4% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 5 | Eduardo Nunez | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.268 | 0.157 | 26.3% | 3.1% | 11.6% | 52.2% | SS | $2,900 | 2B/SS | $3,400 | 3B | $6,800 |
| 6 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.385 | 0.213 | 39.3% | 9.5% | 19.7% | 41.4% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $5,600 |
| 7 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.322 | 0.160 | 34.6% | 8.7% | 22.8% | 45.2% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,200 | CF | $6,700 |
| 8 | Christian Vazquez | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.294 | 0.098 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 18.7% | 47.7% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,500 |
| 9 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.234 | 0.258 | 0.047 | 20.6% | 11.5% | 21.6% | 53.6% | 2B | $2,200 | 2B/OF | $2,900 | 3B | $5,800 |
We’ll need to see if Hanley Ramirez is back in the lineup or if Mitch Moreland draws another start. Cobb isn’t someone I like picking on because of his ability to generate groundballs at a terrific rate and his fantastic control. Vegas has the Red Sox with the highest implied team total so they are going to generate some interest and ownership, but maybe this is a spot where Vegas and I disagree on.
You could certainly consider a Boston stack centered on J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers and Mitch Moreland, and hope Cobb is rusty in his debut, but there are other pitchers I’d rather target against.
Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez
Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland (if Hanley Ramirez is out)
Stackability – YELLOW (Only reason I’m not listing this as green is because I disagree with Vegas, but that’s just my stance)
Update 12:06pm EST – with so many weather issues, people will be focused on Max Scherzer and Boston bats. One way to pivot in tournaments is to get off Boston, while another lower probability option is to play some Rockies against Scherzer. Again, it’s a low probability play but with ownership now concentrating on certain spots it’s something to consider in large field tournaments. The slate has changed a lot since I wrote the GD.
Colorado at Washington – 1:05 PM ET
| Colorado | Washington | ||||||||||||||
 | Jon Gray |  | Max Scherzer | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| WAS-190 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.310 | 0.305 | 29.7% | 6.7% | 21.1% | 51.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.292 | 0.290 | 26.6% | 8.7% | 27.1% | 32.6% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.324 | 0.302 | 26.2% | 5.9% | 28.6% | 44.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.187 | 0.197 | 27.2% | 4.4% | 43.6% | 43.0% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jon Gray | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $14,500 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | 3.74 | 3.67 | 24.3% | 6.5% | 48.9% | 28.4% | 22.7% | |
| 2018 | 3 | 3.12 | 5.63 | 23.6% | 5.6% | 46.9% | 28.0% | 16.0% | |
We’ve seen both the good and bad of Jon Gray so far this season. After a dominant performance against the Padres at Petco, Gray struggled against them in his next start against them at Coors. Personally, I love Jon Gray as a pitcher but do respect this Nats offense enough where I’m fine with Gray in tournaments but do worry a bit for cash games.
Quick Breakdown: Gray profiles more as a solid tournament SP2 against a tough Nationals offense given his strikeout abilities.
| Max Scherzer | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $11,500 | Salary: | $12,400 | Salary: | $23,700 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 31 | 2.98 | 2.51 | 34.4% | 7.1% | 36.5% | 26.5% | 19.5% | |
| 2018 | 3 | 2.05 | 0.90 | 35.5% | 4.0% | 39.1% | 30.4% | 21.7% | |
Scherzer is by far the top arm on this early slate, and now he gets to face a Rockies team that’s on the road and lacks quality lefties. His 35.5% K% is in-line with his elite rate from last season. I know Scherzer is expensive, but I’m prioritizing him in all formats and working around him.
Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is the ace that I’m prioritizing given his recent form and matchup against a Rockies lineup that tends to be right-handed heavy.
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Blackmon | LEFT | 0.420 | 0.382 | 0.296 | 41.2% | 10.3% | 19.6% | 35.1% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,900 | CF | $9,000 |
| 2 | DJ LeMahieu | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.329 | 0.074 | 28.6% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 55.9% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,000 |
| 3 | Nolan Arenado | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.341 | 0.222 | 35.9% | 9.2% | 17.8% | 36.5% | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $4,600 | 3B | $9,300 |
| 4 | Carlos Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.332 | 0.194 | 31.5% | 12.2% | 20.2% | 44.6% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,300 |
| 5 | Ian Desmond | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.254 | 0.103 | 28.2% | 6.1% | 23.6% | 62.6% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B/OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,600 |
| 6 | Trevor Story | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.282 | 0.174 | 37.4% | 7.8% | 34.1% | 34.3% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,600 |
| 7 | Gerardo Parra | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.319 | 0.155 | 36.3% | 5.2% | 14.8% | 48.3% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,000 | LF | $5,700 |
| 8 | Chris Iannetta | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.341 | 0.243 | 37.6% | 10.7% | 28.9% | 34.0% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
| 9 | Jon Gray | RIGHT | 0.137 | 0.145 | 0.120 | 33.3% | 3.6% | 64.3% | 57.1% | P | $7,200 | P | $7,600 | P | $14,500 |
If I’m targeting batters against Scherzer, which I wouldn’t recommend, it would mainly be the left-handers. Charlie Blackmon (if he’s back), Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra would be my main targets, but I’m not going out of my way to pick on Scherzer.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon (if he’s back), Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra
Stackability – RED
Washington
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.327 | 0.183 | 28.5% | 7.7% | 18.7% | 51.2% | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,500 | IF/OF | $9,200 |
| 2 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.366 | 0.200 | 32.6% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 34.8% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $8,500 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.453 | 0.437 | 0.347 | 36.0% | 17.4% | 16.7% | 37.5% | OF | $5,100 | OF | $5,600 | RF | $10,600 |
| 4 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.378 | 0.246 | 39.6% | 6.9% | 23.9% | 46.2% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $8,400 |
| 5 | Matt Adams | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.361 | 0.270 | 39.6% | 7.9% | 24.4% | 36.4% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $3,300 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 6 | Howie Kendrick | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.309 | 0.148 | 29.2% | 4.8% | 19.6% | 61.4% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,400 |
| 7 | Michael Taylor | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.288 | 0.201 | 33.3% | 7.0% | 31.8% | 42.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,200 | CF | $6,500 |
| 8 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.265 | 0.301 | 0.111 | 28.5% | 8.3% | 18.1% | 41.5% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,000 |
| 9 | Max Scherzer | RIGHT | 0.198 | 0.215 | 0.000 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 63.0% | P | $11,500 | P | $12,400 | P | $23,700 |
I plan on being underweight on the Nationals’ batters because of my respect for Gray. Still, you can always make a case for a Nationals stack in large field tournaments because of how talented this offense is, and you can always make the case for Bryce Harper against a righty. Over his career we haven’t seen Gray struggle necessarily against a certain handedness, so my preference would be to stack the top of the lineup given that’s where the more talented hitters are on this team.
Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Matt Adams (if he starts)
Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
Stackability – ORANGE
Update – The Yankees-Tigers game has been postponed
NY Yankees at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
| NY Yankees | Detroit | ||||||||||||||
 | Luis Cessa |  | Francisco Liriano | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TBD | |||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.232 | 0.332 | 28.0% | 11.3% | 18.3% | 50.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.275 | 0.277 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 22.2% | 52.5% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.424 | 0.388 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 21.1% | 41.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.366 | 0.380 | 35.1% | 13.8% | 17.8% | 41.5% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Luis Cessa | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | $10,100 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 27 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 5 | 4.88 | 4.75 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 45.5% | 29.1% | 21.8% | |
| 2018 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Cessa will be a fill-in starter for the injured C.C. Sabathia but it’s unclear how stretched out he is given he’s only pitched one inning in each of his two appearances in the majors this season. I’m expecting this to turn into a bullpen game so I’m not going to pursue Cessa without confidence he can go deep into this game.
Quick Breakdown: Cessa is a pass for me as I expect this to turn into a bullpen game for the Yankees.
| Francisco Liriano | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $11,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 19 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | 5.09 | 5.66 | 19.4% | 12.1% | 44.9% | 29.6% | 16.8% | |
| 2018 | 2 | 5.13 | 2.13 | 14.6% | 10.4% | 38.9% | 44.4% | 13.9% | |
You never know which Francisco Liriano you’re going to get. Will you get the one who will strikeout 8 batters and shut down the Yankees, or will you get the one who will walk batter after batter? Your guess is as good as mine, but I’m not willing to take the chance against a powerful Yankees lineup with right-handed power.
Quick Breakdown: Liriano is always a GPP option given his strikeout stuff, but he’s too inconsistent for me to trust against the Yankees.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.273 | 0.311 | 0.076 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 50.0% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,500 | LF | $6,600 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.417 | 0.451 | 0.279 | 47.9% | 26.2% | 30.4% | 31.0% | OF | $4,800 | OF | $5,200 | RF | $10,200 |
| 3 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.496 | 0.472 | 0.464 | 45.1% | 16.6% | 16.0% | 44.2% | OF | $4,900 | OF | $5,300 | RF | $10,100 |
| 4 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.269 | 0.089 | 15.4% | 4.1% | 14.1% | 35.6% | SS | $4,200 | SS | $4,700 | SS | $9,200 |
| 5 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.380 | 0.395 | 0.300 | 38.2% | 10.4% | 23.1% | 39.3% | C | $3,900 | C | $4,300 | C | $8,600 |
| 6 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.384 | 0.357 | 0.198 | 30.0% | 10.9% | 18.0% | 47.2% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,200 | CF | $6,400 |
| 7 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.271 | 0.269 | 0.083 | 28.2% | 10.1% | 17.4% | 34.2% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B/2B | $3,200 | 2B | $6,600 |
| 8 | Tyler Wade | LEFT | 0.092 | 0.174 | 0.000 | 11.1% | 5.9% | 41.2% | 75.0% | 2B | $2,100 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $5,900 |
| 9 | Miguel Andujar | RIGHT | 0.239 | 0.217 | 0.000 | 9.1% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 45.5% | 3B | $2,300 | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $5,400 |
Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Hicks would be my priority bats against Liriano. I’m all for a stack in case the wild Liriano arrives. If the good Liriano shows up then it could be a long day for the Yankees, but I’m willing to take that chance.
Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton
Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks
Stackability – GREEN
Detroit
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonys Martin | LEFT | 0.244 | 0.290 | 0.093 | 26.2% | 7.8% | 24.2% | 35.7% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,600 |
| 2 | Jeimer Candelario | SWITCH | 0.327 | 0.308 | 0.142 | 24.8% | 10.6% | 20.0% | 47.7% | 3B | $2,300 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,400 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.375 | 0.145 | 41.7% | 8.8% | 20.0% | 42.1% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,600 |
| 4 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.375 | 0.188 | 43.6% | 6.4% | 22.8% | 35.7% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,800 | IF/OF | $7,800 |
| 5 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.312 | 0.375 | 0.130 | 42.9% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 38.0% | C | $2,300 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 6 | John Hicks | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.324 | 0.145 | 32.2% | 6.9% | 23.8% | 50.6% | C | $2,100 | 1B/C | $2,700 | C | $5,900 |
| 7 | JaCoby Jones | RIGHT | 0.220 | 0.241 | 0.063 | 28.1% | 6.6% | 38.5% | 52.4% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,700 | IF/OF | $5,900 |
| 8 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.271 | 0.257 | 0.113 | 27.0% | 4.3% | 15.2% | 52.3% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,700 |
| 9 | Dixon Machado | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.296 | 0.097 | 35.5% | 4.9% | 18.4% | 54.5% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,500 | SS | $6,700 |
Since I don’t expect Cessa to pitch deep into this game, I’m not heavily targeting the Detroit bats. I’m not impressed by this Detroit offense in general so I don’t see myself trying to roster them against Cessa. Cessa did show some reverse splits tendencies last season where right-handers had some success against him, but we don’t have a large enough sample where I’m confident in drawing that conclusion. Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos would be one-offs I’m okay with, but again, this Tigers offense isn’t a team where I want much exposure to. I have the stackability listed as red not because I think Cessa or this bullpen is elite, but because I don’t have enough confidence this Tigers offense can be stacked to generate enough offense to be viable in a tournament.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos
Stackability – RED
St. Louis at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET
| St. Louis | Cincinnati | ||||||||||||||
 | Miles Mikolas |  | Brandon Finnegan | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TBD | |||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.474 | 0.398 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 18.2% | 29.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.283 | 0.230 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 37.5% | 100.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.273 | 0.315 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 70.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.321 | 25.9% | 21.6% | 25.5% | 48.1% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Miles Mikolas | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 23 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2 | 2.73 | 6.00 | 19.2% | 0.0% | 53.7% | 35.7% | 14.3% | |
The overall numbers for Miles Mikolas may not look impressive at first glance, but The Lizard King hasn’t issued a walk yet over 12 innings and does have 10 strikeouts over that period. Mikolas now gets to face a Reds team that isn’t very exciting outside of Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett. I don’t love the ballpark for Mikolas as there is some blowup risk given the home run tendencies he’s shown through three starts, but I do think he’s a fantastic GPP SP2 if you can tolerate some risk and want to chase the potential strikeouts.
Quick Breakdown: I view Mikolas as an upside SP2 in tournaments, but the ballpark isn’t ideal.
| Brandon Finnegan | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $11,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 26 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 4 | 5.84 | 4.15 | 27.1% | 22.0% | 53.3% | 23.3% | 13.3% | |
Finnegan is returning from a biceps strain but has always had command issues as evidenced by his career 11.7% BB%. He also allowed five walks in his five-inning rehab start in AAA. Finnegan’s main appeal is his ability to generate strikeouts and I suppose in the right matchup you can chase those strikeouts, but I have no interest in this spot.
Quick Breakdown: Finnegan has elite strikeout stuff but he also has control issues that can be maddening to watch. He’s viable as a YOLO GPP play if you want to chase the upside, but I’d rather find a pitcher who has better command of his pitches.
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.351 | 0.154 | 37.9% | 11.3% | 16.5% | 44.2% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,500 |
| 2 | Tommy Pham | RIGHT | 0.405 | 0.388 | 0.267 | 36.3% | 16.9% | 20.8% | 54.4% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,700 |
| 3 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.364 | 0.110 | 34.9% | 17.3% | 23.3% | 36.9% | 3B | $3,500 | 2B/3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,700 |
| 4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.343 | 0.117 | 37.6% | 10.5% | 18.3% | 52.3% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,300 |
| 5 | Jose Martinez | RIGHT | 0.513 | 0.532 | 0.413 | 38.0% | 16.0% | 17.3% | 34.0% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
| 6 | Yadier Molina | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.444 | 0.291 | 47.7% | 3.9% | 10.2% | 31.8% | C | $3,400 | C | $3,900 | C | $7,400 |
| 7 | Paul DeJong | RIGHT | 0.388 | 0.281 | 0.322 | 37.0% | 9.4% | 34.4% | 37.0% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,400 |
| 8 | Yairo Munoz | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 60.0% | 100.0% | 3B | $2,000 | OF | $2,500 | SS | $4,500 |
| 9 | Miles Mikolas | RIGHT | P | $6,000 | P | $7,300 | P | $14,400 |
Right-handers have been better against Finnegan and he could see six righties in this Cardinals lineup. While Finnegan has the stuff to mow them down via strikeouts, he could also just get himself into trouble by walking batters. A Cardinals stack is firmly in play here and I wouldn’t leave out the left-handers. A bottom of the order stack may be sneaky here as they’ll draw lower ownership yet all have ISOs against left-handers that are at .290 or above.
Elite Plays – Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina, Tommy Pham
Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna
Stackability – GREEN
Cincinnati
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesse Winker | LEFT | 0.409 | 0.380 | 0.210 | 34.0% | 13.7% | 19.2% | 52.1% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,200 | LF | $6,500 |
| 2 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.269 | 0.285 | 0.068 | 20.1% | 3.2% | 14.5% | 43.4% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $5,700 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.425 | 0.436 | 0.238 | 36.6% | 18.2% | 9.9% | 36.6% | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $4,700 | 1B | $9,300 |
| 4 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.347 | 0.244 | 37.1% | 6.2% | 20.5% | 38.9% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $5,600 |
| 5 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.282 | 0.205 | 30.5% | 5.2% | 28.6% | 32.0% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 6 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.332 | 0.338 | 0.142 | 34.6% | 10.0% | 15.9% | 41.3% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
| 7 | Alex Blandino | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.000 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 3B | $2,000 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $5,700 |
| 8 | Brandon Finnegan | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.303 | 0.000 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 75.0% | P | $5,600 | P | $5,500 | P | $11,200 |
| 9 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.294 | 0.257 | 0.088 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 20.2% | 47.8% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $5,700 |
I like Mikolas as a pitcher enough where I don’t want to pick on him, but he has allowed three home runs through his first 12 innings, and this is a ballpark where he can allow some longballs. Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett would be my main targets since they have the platoon advantage, while a powerful bat like Adam Duvall makes some sense if you’re chasing the home runs.
Elite Plays – Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto
Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall
Stackability – ORANGE
Update – The Twins-White Sox game has been postponed
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET
| Chicago White Sox | Minnesota | ||||||||||||||
 | ** |  | Lance Lynn | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | |||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| MIN-170 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.523 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.354 | 0.360 | 30.8% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 45.5% | |||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.241 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.260 | 0.280 | 28.3% | 7.4% | 24.8% | 43.0% | |||
Pitcher Grind Down
| #VALUE! | |||||||||
| | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,300 | Salary: | $8,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0 | 8.34 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2018 | 0 | 8.79 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
I have concerns whether this game even plays after they postponed Friday’s game. Pitchers on both sides of this game are a bit risky with the potential snow. We’ll need to wait on which starter gets announced before deciding whether this is a spot we even want to focus on.
Quick Breakdown: TBD based on which starter is announced.
| Lance Lynn | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 14 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 33 | 4.85 | 3.43 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 44.0% | 29.2% | 21.1% | |
| 2018 | 2 | 5.52 | 5.00 | 28.6% | 23.8% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 25.0% | |
Similar to my comments above, I have some concerns about this game in general. In a game where the weather is in doubt, I tend to fade the pitchers. This is a spot where Lance Lynn isn’t talented enough to worry about.
Quick Breakdown: With the weather being iffy and Lynn not a great starter to begin with, I have no interest.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yoan Moncada | SWITCH | 0.349 | 0.368 | 0.205 | 43.9% | 15.1% | 32.8% | 41.8% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 2 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.360 | 0.175 | 33.7% | 5.5% | 20.5% | 51.5% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,300 | RF | $6,700 |
| 3 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.367 | 0.241 | 39.6% | 4.8% | 16.6% | 45.0% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $8,100 |
| 4 | Matt Davidson | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.314 | 0.256 | 41.6% | 5.1% | 39.4% | 38.9% | 3B | $3,700 | 1B/3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,400 |
| 5 | Nick Delmonico | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.312 | 0.211 | 26.7% | 12.3% | 18.2% | 39.2% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,500 |
| 6 | Yolmer Sanchez | SWITCH | 0.328 | 0.296 | 0.162 | 25.7% | 6.5% | 19.6% | 47.1% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $2,900 | 2B | $5,800 |
| 7 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.264 | 0.140 | 27.6% | 2.9% | 28.2% | 53.0% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,400 |
| 8 | Omar Narvaez | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.327 | 0.068 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 43.0% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,600 | C | $5,000 |
| 9 | Adam Engel | RIGHT | 0.212 | 0.225 | 0.099 | 26.8% | 6.0% | 37.7% | 41.5% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,700 | CF | $5,600 |
If we get word this game plays you could make a case to stack the top five batters as all have ISOs of .175 or more. You’ll probably also get this stack at low ownership given the question marks surrounding whether this game plays. Just keep an eye out on the weather report before you play anyone from this game.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Nick Delmonico, Avisail Garcia, Yoan Moncada
Stackability – ORANGE
Minnesota
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.333 | 0.213 | 33.0% | 10.7% | 19.9% | 38.4% | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $4,900 | 2B | $9,100 |
| 2 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.361 | 0.404 | 0.128 | 41.1% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 49.0% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $6,000 |
| 3 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.347 | 0.230 | 45.5% | 10.8% | 38.3% | 40.0% | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,000 |
| 4 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.370 | 0.350 | 0.263 | 32.9% | 7.5% | 17.8% | 37.9% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,100 | LF | $5,900 |
| 5 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.376 | 0.281 | 39.2% | 13.2% | 25.1% | 33.3% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $5,900 |
| 6 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.330 | 0.335 | 0.224 | 35.1% | 5.7% | 21.5% | 32.0% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $5,500 |
| 7 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 36.7% | 9.7% | 16.8% | 40.8% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,100 | RF | $5,700 |
| 8 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.274 | 0.157 | 27.6% | 5.6% | 31.0% | 41.8% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,200 | CF | $6,700 |
| 9 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.310 | 0.323 | 0.148 | 34.4% | 12.2% | 29.4% | 41.0% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,400 |
Without knowing the starting pitcher it’s too difficult for me to make a judgement on which batters to play. The Twins do have some thump in their lineup so if we get a sense this game plays, I’m all for a stack here.