MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 2nd

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-09-03 01:42:19

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Boston at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Boston								NY Yankees
			Drew Pomeranz							Masahiro Tanaka
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-135							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.299	31.2%	10.1%	24.4%	40.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	0.306	32.6%	4.2%	22.2%	51.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.287	31.6%	8.8%	26.3%	46.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	0.304	31.7%	5.5%	22.1%	45.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Drew Pomeranz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 12	Salary Rank:		5 of 12	Salary Rank:		of 12
	2016	30	3.80	3.32	26.5%	9.3%	46.2%	31.5%	19.1%
	2017	26	4.19	3.23	24.5%	9.4%	42.6%	31.5%	22.3%
	L30	5	4.34	2.28	24.4%	10.6%	45.5%	29.1%	24.1%

What’s up, Grinders? Saturday is here, so I am back with you for another weekend edition of the Grind Down. I apologize if this article is a little brief in spots, but we have a whopping 17 games on the docket today. I will save myself some space where I can, because 17 games is a ton to break down thanks to two double-headers. We kick things off with an intriguing pitching duel between Drew Pomeranz and Masahiro Tanaka in New York. Pomeranz is a frustrating talent who can’t ever seem to put it all together, but he does draw a good matchup today. While his metrics are all over the place, he has a favorable matchup against a Yankees team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in wOBA and ISO against LHP. This is not the same offense against lefties. Pomeranz owns an above average strikeout rate and is in play on the early slate, though his results against the Yankees this year are mixed.

Quick Breakdown: This is an intriguing matchup for Pomeranz, and he is definitely in play this afternoon, especially on the FanDuel slate which only has three games compared to the five for DraftKings.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 12	Salary Rank:		3 of 12	Salary Rank:		of 12
	2016	31	3.79	3.07	20.5%	4.5%	48.2%	32.5%	18.5%
	2017	25	3.61	4.69	24.8%	5.5%	48.6%	31.6%	17.8%
	L30	4	4.00	2.63	23.5%	7.1%	43.3%	31.3%	13.4%

Over his last nine starts, with a brief injury break in the middle, Tanaka has posted very good numbers that include a 65/9 K/BB ratio over 57 innings and an ERA near 3.00. This is the pitcher that a lot of people expected out of Spring Training. While the matchup isn’t great against a low strikeout, high walk Boston squad, I still like Tanaka a good bit this afternoon. He has really improved over the last two months, and I am valuing those numbers more than his full season numbers.

Quick Breakdown: I slightly prefer Charlie Morton, but you can make an argument for Tanaka as the top pitcher on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.349	0.267	0.146	26.0%	2.5%	11.1%	53.8%	2B	$3,300	2B/3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.330	0.313	0.097	26.5%	8.7%	9.6%	48.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.350	0.340	0.186	37.3%	9.6%	16.5%	36.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.327	0.325	0.181	35.3%	9.3%	11.4%	39.9%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.338	0.381	0.206	41.0%	10.1%	21.7%	39.6%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.349	0.330	0.266	37.7%	10.2%	20.5%	49.2%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.324	0.354	0.170	34.8%	8.7%	19.9%	41.8%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.303	0.261	0.083	27.0%	5.5%	19.5%	48.5%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.312	0.329	0.172	38.3%	9.1%	24.2%	40.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A

Tanaka is very much a splits-neutral pitcher, and there aren’t many hitters from the Red Sox that I love today. The BvP is also all pretty poor against the Yankee right-hander, so I will be largely avoiding the Boston offense today.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.268	0.293	0.096	21.1%	10.8%	19.2%	49.4%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.359	0.332	0.209	31.9%	9.6%	20.2%	45.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.348	0.393	0.298	41.7%	11.6%	25.3%	36.7%	C	$3,800	C	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.301	0.282	0.081	16.8%	3.4%	14.3%	34.0%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.322	0.314	0.096	33.3%	9.9%	16.0%	53.3%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.390	0.450	0.269	44.4%	24.6%	31.0%	35.2%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.286	0.309	0.134	29.9%	5.6%	24.6%	40.2%	1B	$3,700	1B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.231	0.342	0.000	100.0%	33.3%	50.0%	0.0%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.342	0.361	0.301	33.3%	15.8%	21.9%	23.2%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A

Throughout his career, Pomeranz has been your traditional splits lefty. However, he has strange reverse splits this season. That’s not enough for me to call him a reverse splits pitcher, but it is enough for me to consider him a neutral arm. Because of the natural tendency to avoid L/L matchups, you might be able to get a guy like Brett Gardner or Didi Gregorius at low GPP ownership today. I’m not super excited about bats on either side of this game. Gary Sanchez, of course, is a premier play at catcher, but I can leave the rest alone.

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

NY Mets at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Houston
			Matt Harvey							Charlie Morton
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-215							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.370	0.366	34.7%	9.7%	17.2%	32.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.253	0.290	27.1%	9.4%	29.8%	47.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.303	29.7%	7.1%	19.4%	53.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.345	0.325	29.0%	9.0%	22.6%	54.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Harvey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		8 of 12	Salary Rank:		11 of 12	Salary Rank:		4 of 12
	2016	17	4.31	4.86	18.9%	6.2%	40.8%	30.3%	24.3%
	2017	13	5.24	5.25	17.4%	11.3%	45.3%	34.9%	25.2%

First of all, thoughts and prayers go out to those of you in the Houston area. To all of those affected by Hurricane Harvey, I wish you the best. This is the first home game for the Astros since the hurricane, and the Mets are throwing… Matt Harvey at them. THAT IS JUST CRUEL. Harvey has an ERA and SIERA over 5.00 this year and is making his first start since returning from the disabled list. We can safely move along.

Quick Breakdown: This is a terrible troll move by the Mets, and Harvey can be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Charlie Morton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:		4 of 12	Salary Rank:		4 of 12	Salary Rank:		1 of 12
	2016	4	3.56	4.15	26.8%	11.3%	62.8%	20.5%	15.9%
	2017	20	3.84	3.88	25.9%	8.8%	50.6%	29.1%	20.6%
	L30	5	3.69	4.20	26.2%	7.9%	51.3%	24.7%	17.3%

The overall profile makes Charlie Morton very intriguing today, as he owns a 3.88 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, and 26% strikeout rate on the year. The strikeouts have really climbed this season, and Morton has shown his upside on several occasions. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant over the last month, he draws a great matchup today against a Mets team that is throwing one of the worst lineups in baseball out there these days. I am all aboard the Morton train on the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: With his 2017 improvement and a great matchup against the Mets, Morton is my favorite pitching option on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.366	0.363	0.091	40.6%	18.5%	22.2%	37.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,600
2	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.250	0.221	0.125	25.0%	1.5%	36.4%	47.5%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.297	0.333	0.147	36.0%	10.0%	15.9%	42.6%	3B	$2,800	2B/SS	$4,100	SS	$8,000
4	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.327	0.320	0.188	33.5%	6.6%	14.1%	36.9%	2B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
5	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.250	0.293	0.143	34.7%	4.2%	16.3%	40.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,600	C	$5,200
6	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.270	0.278	0.140	26.8%	7.2%	13.7%	38.0%	SS	$3,000	3B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,500
7	Dominic Smith	LEFT	0.323	0.309	0.263	37.5%	5.0%	15.0%	50.0%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,600
8	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.281	0.246	0.096	29.2%	5.6%	21.3%	54.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
9	Matt Reynolds	RIGHT	0.243	0.235	0.102	29.0%	9.3%	33.3%	53.3%	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800

You can pretty much make a GPP case for anything on a three game slate, but I am not interested in Mets hitters against my favorite pitching option of the afternoon. They have the lowest team total of all the teams playing this afternoon. Morton has shown reverse splits this season, so Amed Rosario is an interesting value play if he hits second again. That’s all I’ve got here.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Amed Rosario

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.377	0.370	0.251	39.6%	8.7%	21.3%	50.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,600
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.345	0.343	0.193	33.6%	9.0%	16.2%	42.4%	3B	$4,000	3B/SS	$4,400	3B	$8,400
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.415	0.360	0.199	28.3%	8.3%	11.9%	45.0%	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,500	2B	$10,800
4	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.350	0.323	0.197	31.2%	7.7%	13.2%	34.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
5	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.347	0.319	0.196	33.6%	2.1%	9.9%	45.3%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,000
6	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.316	0.295	0.190	33.2%	7.6%	18.2%	43.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.404	0.326	0.252	36.8%	9.5%	21.1%	44.6%	SS	$2,700	OF/SS	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
8	Juan Centeno	LEFT	0.305	0.308	0.222	19.1%	10.0%	20.0%	28.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,300	C	$4,400
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.367	0.300	0.315	33.3%	5.8%	36.7%	41.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800

Matt Harvey has been nothing short of terrible this year, with bad numbers across the board, high walks, and low strikeouts. Houston should be playing with a ton of emotion in their return to their home stadium, and it would not surprise me at all if they have a huge day. I know their offense has not been the same in recent weeks, but this could be the spot to climb aboard, especially with Harvey just returning from the disabled list. Lefties have posted a 24% line drive rate, lots of hard contact, and a .377 wOBA against Harvey this year, so that is where I will start, but everyone is in play.

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran (if he plays), Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Chicago Cubs
			Lucas Sims							Jon Lester
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-240
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.346	0.292	20.0%	5.8%	11.5%	36.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.229	0.253	26.7%	3.8%	30.4%	54.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.358	0.383	38.6%	6.9%	12.5%	35.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.292	26.8%	7.8%	23.2%	45.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lucas Sims
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 12	Salary Rank:		10 of 12	Salary Rank:		of 12

	2017	6	5.08	4.41	14.5%	5.9%	36.9%	32.5%	21.4%
	L30	6	5.08	4.41	14.5%	5.9%	36.9%	32.5%	21.4%

Sims has a bright future, but he has struggled in his first taste of major league action. He has a SIERA over 5.00 and a low strikeout rate, despite showing solid strikeout ability in the minor leagues. Sometimes, it just takes guys a while to find their footing at this level. He did have a good start against the Phillies his last time out, but I want no part of him against a red hot Cubs team that has a very dangerous offense.

Quick Breakdown: Sims can safely be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$11,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 12	Salary Rank:		2 of 12	Salary Rank:		of 12
	2016	32	3.61	2.44	24.8%	6.5%	46.9%	26.8%	18.9%
	2017	26	3.85	4.37	24.9%	7.4%	47.1%	26.8%	20.8%
	L30	4	3.70	7.85	28.1%	7.9%	30.4%	28.6%	14.3%

Lester has missed two weeks with a shoulder injury, and he threw a 50 pitch bullpen session the other day. I have not been able to find confirmation of a potential pitch count, but that is definitely a valid concern. Absent any workload concerns, Lester does draw a fine matchup with the Braves today. Atlanta is a lefty-heavy offense that Lester matches up well against, but his price tag is simply too steep for me. It would be hard to envision the Cubs pushing him to 100+ pitches here, and we need a lot of innings for Lester to pay off a high price tag, especially since he doesn’t have the massive strikeout upside of some other aces.

Quick Breakdown: Thanks to the high price tag and potential pitch count concerns, I will avoid Lester today and take a wait-and-see approach with him going forward.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.318	0.256	0.082	18.9%	6.7%	10.4%	61.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.484	0.423	0.529	41.2%	15.0%	0.0%	41.2%	2B	$3,300	2B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.342	0.331	0.230	33.9%	9.1%	29.3%	35.6%	1B	$4,000	1B/3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.279	0.379	0.092	31.8%	13.5%	14.6%	58.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.333	0.309	0.128	29.3%	7.0%	14.7%	52.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.354	0.390	0.104	27.0%	15.3%	18.6%	56.8%	C	$2,800	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Rio Ruiz	LEFT	0.560	0.403	0.250	50.0%	20.0%	40.0%	50.0%			3B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.336	0.321	0.162	37.3%	11.9%	17.9%	43.1%	SS	$3,000	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Lucas Sims	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$6,300	P	$5,600	N/A	N/A

Although I won’t be using Lester as a pitching option this afternoon, that doesn’t mean that I will be loading up on Atlanta bats. Lester has held LHBs to a .219 wOBA this season, so all the lefties are out of play for me. Righties carry a bit more intrigue, but there aren’t many dangerous righties on this squad. I’ll give Albies and Kemp a look mainly because it’s a short slate, but that’s where my interest stops.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Ozzie Albies

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.333	0.313	0.105	26.9%	9.1%	19.8%	47.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.329	0.358	0.257	38.7%	11.5%	29.2%	38.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.392	0.343	0.250	30.8%	11.8%	19.9%	36.5%	3B	$4,600	3B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.382	0.395	0.243	33.0%	13.9%	12.4%	39.1%	1B	$4,900	1B	$5,600	N/A	N/A
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.318	0.329	0.149	34.5%	11.0%	14.2%	52.6%	OF	$3,500	2B/OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.392	0.436	0.231	55.7%	16.8%	31.1%	36.2%	C	$2,800	1B/C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.307	0.319	0.131	27.2%	8.8%	11.7%	48.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.299	0.278	0.186	31.2%	5.5%	30.5%	48.3%	SS	$3,500	2B/SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.158	0.237	0.069	33.3%	3.1%	40.6%	58.8%	P	$9,200	P	$11,800	N/A	N/A

The wind is not going to play a major factor in Chicago today. We have had healthy winds blowing straight in for each of the last two games, but it does not appear that there will be a strong wind today. The Cubs draw a fine matchup against the young Lucas Sims, and I don’t mind taking some of their hitters today. Sims has allowed a .342 wOBA to LHBs and a .371 wOBA to RHBs in his brief major league career, so hitters from both sides are in play. I would stick to the top five or six in the order here, especially if you are going to stack, although Javier Baez could be an interesting GPP play from the #8 spot, assuming he hits there.

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist (value), Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Javier Baez, Jon Jay, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								San Diego
			Brock Stewart							Clayton Richard
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-134							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	0.287	31.9%	11.0%	20.0%	33.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.314	0.239	22.4%	4.8%	23.2%	71.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.296	27.2%	9.5%	17.3%	45.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.366	0.345	34.1%	8.6%	13.3%	57.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brock Stewart
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,600
	Salary Rank:		12 of 12	Salary Rank:		8 of 12	Salary Rank:		2 of 12
	2016	5	4.62	5.79	19.8%	9.5%	42.0%	33.7%	23.6%
	2017	3	5.17	3.38	16.8%	10.9%	38.6%	23.6%	23.6%
	L30	2	7.14	11.05	13.2%	18.4%	32.0%	26.9%	15.4%

This game represents the start of a second “early” slate on FanDuel that includes the last two games on this page and the first game on the next page, while it is simply a continuation of the one early slate on DraftKings. Yes, it’s hard to keep all these things straight. Brock Stewart takes the ball for the Dodgers, and he is yet another intriguing young pitcher that we have going this afternoon. He has a fantastic matchup here against the Padres, but the problem is that Stewart has been very inconsistent and walks a lot of guys, and the Dodgers keep him on a very strict pitch count. Given the expanded September rosters, it’s hard to see him going deep into this game. He hasn’t pitched more than four innings in a start this year.

Quick Breakdown: Despite the good matchup, there’s no upside with Stewart since he is unlikely to last longer than four innings.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Clayton Richard
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		9 of 12	Salary Rank:		9 of 12	Salary Rank:		3 of 12
	2016	9	4.46	3.33	13.4%	10.1%	65.1%	25.9%	21.6%
	2017	27	4.07	4.96	17.0%	6.6%	59.4%	33.7%	16.9%
	L30	5	3.43	3.21	20.6%	6.4%	65.3%	37.0%	14.0%

Clayton Richard gets the job done via dominating left-handed hitters and generating a ton of ground balls, but he is not a fantasy option, especially against the Dodgers. There is no strikeout upside, and there is a ton of risk.

Quick Breakdown: Richard can safely be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.395	0.344	0.218	29.1%	9.1%	25.6%	39.2%	OF	$3,700	2B/OF	$4,600	2B	$8,800
2	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.300	0.310	0.189	35.3%	9.8%	23.5%	36.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,800	CF	$9,200
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.498	0.457	0.342	44.6%	12.3%	8.2%	29.1%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,400
4	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.362	0.359	0.262	41.9%	8.9%	22.2%	33.7%	1B	$3,800	1B/OF	$5,200	IF/OF	$10,000
5	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.304	0.272	0.135	24.6%	9.6%	21.7%	57.1%	C	$3,200	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
6	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.235	0.246	0.024	18.8%	6.8%	20.5%	59.4%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,800
7	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.395	0.386	0.161	39.7%	18.6%	26.3%	42.9%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
8	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.238	0.312	0.065	25.3%	17.7%	12.4%	63.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,400
9	Yu Darvish	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$10,200	P	$13,300	P	$25,800

While Richard is never a fantasy option on the mound, he is also not the most friendly pitcher to load up on bats against. He has an absurd 68% ground ball rate against left-handed hitters, making it very difficult to endorse paying up for Granderson or Bellinger today. Righties fare a little bit better, though Richard still has a 57% ground ball rate against them. However, righties are generating hard contact 36% of the time and have a wOBA north of .370 against him this year. On a shorter slate, I don’t mind loading up some of the Dodger RHBs.

(Also, ignore the projected lineup above that shows Yu Darvish. He is pitching in Game 2. It’s a glitch in the lineup generator thanks to the double-header).

Elite Plays – Chris Taylor, Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.306	0.293	0.151	26.3%	4.4%	20.8%	38.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
2	Carlos Asuaje	LEFT	0.334	0.288	0.115	30.8%	9.0%	23.7%	36.3%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,100	SS	$6,000
3	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.374	0.327	0.212	34.4%	6.5%	16.7%	47.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	2B	$7,200
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.349	0.324	0.199	33.5%	8.9%	11.0%	40.4%	2B	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,500	2B	$6,800
5	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.319	0.305	0.209	37.8%	9.5%	27.4%	37.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
6	Hector Sanchez	SWITCH	0.332	0.301	0.273	40.7%	3.7%	29.6%	31.5%	C	$2,000	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
7	Cory Spangenberg	LEFT	0.356	0.308	0.190	31.0%	7.6%	21.4%	44.8%	3B	$2,900	3B/OF	$3,300	2B	$6,600
8	Jabari Blash	RIGHT	0.313	0.309	0.127	43.3%	18.6%	37.1%	43.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,400
9	Clayton Richard	LEFT	0.142	0.138	0.030	5.3%	2.4%	46.3%	61.5%	P	$6,900	P	$5,700	P	$11,200

I swore off using Padres bats for the rest of the year after last weekend. It hasn’t burned me yet.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

St. Louis at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								San Francisco
			Lance Lynn							Chris Stratton
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-120							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.346	30.8%	13.7%	15.1%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.361	0.317	21.7%	14.5%	12.1%	35.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.248	0.274	31.5%	5.3%	24.5%	42.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.267	0.325	28.6%	8.3%	19.6%	52.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lance Lynn
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 12	Salary Rank:		6 of 12	Salary Rank:		of 12

	2017	27	4.68	3.14	20.3%	9.4%	43.9%	30.9%	19.9%
	L30	5	5.28	2.90	16.8%	11.5%	46.7%	33.7%	22.8%

There have been rumors that Lance Lynn is pitching with some sort of injury, but there is nothing beyond vague information out there regarding what that might be. He is much better at home, generally, but he couldn’t ask for a better road matchup today against a poor Giants offense in a very pitcher-friendly park. His price tag is extremely fair, and while the strikeout upside might not be there, Lynn makes a lot of sense as a pitching option. The one worry is that he is much worse against LHBs, and the Giants may go with five or six LHBs today. The quality of those LHBs, though, is not very good.

Quick Breakdown: In a pitcher-friendly park against a bad team, I like Lance Lynn today. He’s a better option on DK as a SP #2 that is fairly priced, while it’s tough to argue for him as a solo option on FanDuel.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Stratton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 12	Salary Rank:		7 of 12	Salary Rank:		of 12
	2016	0	5.35	3.60	14.0%	11.6%	40.6%	18.8%	18.8%
	2017	5	4.92	3.82	20.3%	12.3%	44.9%	27.5%	22.9%
	L30	4	4.49	1.52	25.0%	12.0%	40.0%	25.8%	22.6%

Stratton’s ERA is good, but don’t be fooled. He has had extremely good luck with a 6.7% HR/FB rate, as he has a SIERA that is significantly higher than his ERA. He also has a 12% walk rate on the year. There are better pitching options out there, especially since he has to face a Cardinals lineup that appears to be showing some signs of life again.

Quick Breakdown: Stratton can safely be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.371	0.379	0.218	43.5%	16.5%	18.5%	24.7%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.382	0.355	0.176	36.4%	12.2%	23.7%	53.1%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.370	0.344	0.259	38.7%	2.5%	28.9%	34.4%	SS	$3,300	2B/SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
4	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.373	0.374	0.245	37.8%	14.4%	20.1%	38.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.298	0.305	0.119	33.8%	4.6%	15.5%	46.9%	C	$3,100	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.329	0.353	0.179	34.9%	7.7%	21.9%	51.9%	OF	$2,200	1B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.358	0.322	0.150	27.8%	8.5%	14.2%	46.5%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.321	0.307	0.224	40.0%	5.9%	31.5%	39.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Lance Lynn	RIGHT	0.098	0.127	0.059	16.7%	0.0%	35.1%	68.4%	P	$7,800	P	$7,700	N/A	N/A

I must say that the Cardinals have definitely proven me wrong since I called them a bottom ten offense in the league. Despite an injury to Jedd Gyorko, this squad just continues to hit. Tommy Pham has been particularly impressive this year with a .396 wOBA and 19 home runs in 104 games, and he is a solid option against Stratton today. The primary way to get to Stratton is with LHBs, as his ground ball rate erodes against lefties, and he has allowed them to post a .352 wOBA this season. One problem: the Cardinals don’t have many lefties. A full stack is in play given Stratton’s control woes, though.

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.333	0.327	0.174	25.7%	6.4%	11.9%	40.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.317	0.309	0.151	28.2%	7.6%	9.5%	41.9%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.321	0.338	0.156	37.1%	7.4%	20.9%	45.7%	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.335	0.353	0.113	30.4%	9.5%	11.6%	47.5%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.291	0.310	0.149	34.6%	6.6%	21.7%	49.4%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.289	0.278	0.111	27.8%	5.7%	21.7%	61.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.315	0.291	0.188	23.7%	6.6%	28.6%	50.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Ryder Jones	LEFT	0.269	0.273	0.157	30.2%	6.4%	21.8%	35.8%	1B	$2,300	1B/3B	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Chris Stratton	RIGHT	0.000	0.145	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$7,300	P	$7,400	N/A	N/A

Lefties have been trouble for Lance Lynn throughout his entire career, so if you are not on the Lynn train today and you want to stack up some San Francisco bats, make it the lefties. The Giants are a very low upside stack given their awful offensive numbers this year and limited power, but it’s not the worst idea I have ever seen, especially if you think Lynn is hurt. I’m pretty neutral on the thought. I keep going back to the fact that the Red Sox simply cut Pablo Sandoval because he was so bad, and now he’s hitting third for the Giants? That’s how bad things are in San Francisco. Like I said above, you can really make a case for Lynn as a pitching option here.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 2nd

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Stackability Rating System:

Boston at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

NY Mets at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Amed Rosario

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran (if he plays), Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Ozzie Albies

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist (value), Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Javier Baez, Jon Jay, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Chris Taylor, Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

St. Louis at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Denard Span

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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