MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 13th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-08-14 02:04:41

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Pittsburgh at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Toronto
			Chad Kuhl							J.A. Happ
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-130							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.367	0.337	36.5%	9.9%	19.0%	38.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.321	32.7%	5.9%	18.0%	49.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.302	29.8%	7.3%	18.1%	48.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.312	30.5%	7.5%	21.5%	42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Kuhl
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	2016	14	4.50	4.20	17.6%	6.6%	44.3%	33.0%	19.6%
	2017	22	4.84	4.53	19.1%	9.8%	43.3%	32.9%	17.8%
	L30	5	4.76	3.00	21.6%	12.1%	48.0%	34.2%	26.3%

Sunday is here, and it’s either end of the week or the beginning of the week depending on how you view life. It’s a great question to ponder for the day. Calendars consider Sunday the start of a new week, but most people probably consider Monday the start of a new week because of how work schedules are set up. Isn’t that strange? It’s one of the biggest debatable topics out there, and perhaps the most controversial thing since Kyrie Irving demanded the Earth was flat. In any case, I am already getting way off course here. Chad Kuhl takes the mound for the Pirates in Toronto today, and he has shown flashes of potential this season. However, his numbers are decidedly average across the board. He is a reasonable value in the right matchup, and this might be one of those days. Toronto is capable of putting up some runs at home, and there are enough good pitchers today to where we don’t necessarily have to stretch things by considering a fringe option, but Kuhl matches up fairly well against the Jays, who don’t have any good left-handed bats outside of Smoak and Morales

Quick Breakdown: In the right matchup, Kuhl can be considered as a value play. This could be one of those days, as I like the way he matches up with the Jays. However, he’s nowhere near a must play.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$15,600
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	2016	32	4.28	3.18	20.5%	7.5%	42.5%	31.6%	17.8%
	2017	15	4.10	3.92	21.6%	6.5%	46.6%	29.7%	20.7%
	L30	5	4.94	4.82	17.7%	10.0%	49.5%	27.7%	23.4%

Much like last year’s American League Cy Young award winner Rick Porcello, it seems like J.A. Happ is over-rated in the mainstream media because he had a year where he won a lot of games. For our purposes, wins are only a very small portion of the equation. He’s only 5-8 this year in the W-L department, but he actually has a better SIERA than he did last year when he won 20 games. That shows you how much true value the “win” statistic has. Happ is still very strong against left-handed hitters, but he will quite possibly face an all right-handed Pirates lineup today. That is enough to get him quickly crossed off my list at a price tag of $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Happ is capable of shutting down lefties, but he might not be facing a single one in the Pirates lineup today. There’s no reason to target him on this Sunday slate.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.207	0.249	0.050	28.6%	7.0%	27.9%	51.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.363	0.312	0.176	30.3%	8.5%	14.2%	41.9%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,200	2B	$6,400
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.488	0.438	0.442	45.1%	18.9%	14.2%	32.4%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,000
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.384	0.388	0.167	38.9%	17.8%	21.1%	57.4%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,800
5	Jose Osuna	RIGHT	0.360	0.301	0.211	29.9%	6.2%	11.1%	53.7%	OF	$2,700	1B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,900
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.285	0.258	0.089	19.7%	5.9%	21.2%	45.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,700	RF	$5,400
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.292	0.309	0.161	41.1%	11.1%	15.2%	52.8%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,800
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.142	0.220	0.095	27.8%	4.5%	13.6%	61.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,000	C	$4,000
9			0.692		0.000	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$7,000	P	$7,900	P	$8,400

Since the Pirates will likely go with an all-righty lineup here, we can simply isolate Happ’s splits against RHBs. He has allowed them to post a .322 wOBA, 30% hard hit rate, and 23% line drive rate against righties this year, and those numbers aren’t exactly great. However, they also don’t stand out as numbers we want to attack with bats, either. The Pirates still come relatively cheap in DFS, and I think there’s some sneaky stack potential here. Starling Marte still stands out as a nice value with his current price tag, and Andrew McCutchen also qualifies as an elite play with his improved numbers of late.

Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, David Freese, Sean Rodriguez

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.323	0.333	0.186	34.7%	12.6%	22.3%	33.9%	OF	$4,000	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
2	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.346	0.333	0.171	28.4%	14.3%	22.2%	52.9%	C	$2,800	C	$2,800	C	$5,400
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.362	0.363	0.223	34.1%	15.3%	25.4%	42.0%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,800
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.378	0.394	0.294	40.6%	10.4%	22.6%	32.6%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.338	0.319	0.169	32.5%	8.5%	19.5%	42.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400	1B	$6,600
6	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.375	0.300	0.162	25.8%	6.7%	20.5%	48.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,500	RF	$4,800
7	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.267	0.279	0.132	27.9%	7.4%	16.9%	44.9%	SS	$2,500	2B/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,600
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.273	0.300	0.127	26.1%	5.3%	15.4%	46.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,400
9	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.193	0.271	0.114	21.4%	5.4%	18.9%	50.0%	2B	$2,000	1B/2B	$2,900	1B	$5,700

The good news with Chad Kuhl is that we can make fairly definitive conclusions regarding his splits. He has always been pretty good against right-handed hitters, but lefties give him fits. He has allowed a .367 wOBA and 36% hard hit rate to lefties on the year. Fire up all the Toronto lefties you want, while the righties are easy avoids against Kuhl. His ground ball rate is 10% higher and his hard hit rate is 6% lower against RHBs, and his wOBA differential is around 90 points.

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales (if he is back in the lineup), possible left-handed value bats (Carrera, Goins)

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Colorado at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Miami
			German Marquez							Vance Worley
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-103							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.299	30.2%	8.2%	20.7%	48.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.309	35.9%	10.2%	16.9%	48.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.325	38.4%	6.3%	22.0%	40.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.318	34.0%	6.9%	15.7%	50.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
German Marquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016	3	3.97	5.23	15.3%	6.1%	54.9%	29.7%	13.5%
	2017	18	4.17	4.11	22.7%	7.5%	41.8%	35.3%	15.3%
	L30	4	3.16	3.38	31.1%	6.6%	42.2%	30.8%	15.4%

If you are looking for an affordable pitching option today, this could very well be your guy. German Marquez gets a very nice park upgrade moving from Coors Field to Marlins Park, and he has posted respectable numbers this year despite tossing half his games in Denver. His ERA and FIP are both solidly under 4.00, but he has had problems allowing hard contact. His HR/FB rate is a little too low given his batted ball profile, so there is likely some regression on the way. However, he has shown decent strikeout ability, and the Marlins have been a league average offense against RHP for the season as a whole.

Quick Breakdown: I’m relatively neutral on Marquez today, but he is worth a look if you need a value pitching option.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Vance Worley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,600
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2016	4	4.79	3.53	15.3%	9.6%	48.1%	31.6%	15.2%
	2017	6	4.12	5.31	18.3%	6.3%	51.6%	41.9%	14.0%
	L30	2	3.52	3.60	15.3%	5.1%	65.2%	39.1%	15.2%

You get three things with Vance Worley: great goggles, average stuff, and strange numbers. He has only allowed three home runs in 46 2/3 innings this year despite allowing hard contact at a mammoth 40% clip. That, my friends, and simply not sustainable. He is able to get out of jams with a decent ground ball rate at times, but there’s little to no strikeout upside, either. Even though the Rockies are not the same offense away from Coors Field, it’s really difficult to make a case for Worley as a fantasy option.

Quick Breakdown: With limited strikeout ability and a hefty hard contact rate allowed, Worley is not on the DFS radar. There are better options out there.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.415	0.363	0.286	38.8%	8.9%	21.4%	34.7%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,700	CF	$11,200
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.317	0.323	0.065	27.6%	8.4%	13.8%	57.8%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.352	0.329	0.230	36.1%	7.5%	18.2%	37.0%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,200	3B	$10,200
4	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.381	0.329	0.201	39.3%	4.9%	13.0%	49.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.397	0.337	0.259	34.9%	9.6%	27.8%	42.1%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
6	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.292	0.300	0.132	26.9%	10.8%	19.8%	46.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
7	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.287	0.303	0.094	23.7%	7.2%	11.2%	53.5%	C	$2,300	C	$3,800	C	$7,500
8	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.271	0.255	0.138	32.2%	9.1%	35.5%	34.7%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
9	German Marquez	RIGHT	0.140	0.143	0.000	23.5%	0.0%	39.3%	78.6%	P	$7,300	P	$7,400	P	$14,800

Vance Worley has been an equal opportunity pitcher this year, posting mediocre numbers against hitters from both sides of the plate. His batted ball profile leans toward traditional splits, but he has been pretty neutral for much of his career. I would simply choose Colorado hitters based on how they fit into your lineup, and the Rockies do check in as rare road favorites today. I’d rather target one off power as opposed to a full stack here, though.

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Gerardo Parra

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.319	0.266	0.076	20.2%	5.2%	13.7%	56.0%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.399	0.392	0.319	38.8%	10.3%	25.3%	41.4%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,800
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.346	0.361	0.154	38.8%	12.3%	19.1%	55.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.396	0.375	0.283	44.7%	7.9%	23.0%	44.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.342	0.337	0.160	31.5%	6.0%	16.3%	50.9%	C	$2,700	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.287	0.291	0.158	33.7%	5.5%	18.5%	35.3%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
7	Tomas Telis	SWITCH	0.252	0.292	0.167	53.3%	0.0%	16.7%	40.0%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,700	C	$5,400
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.302	0.292	0.034	17.5%	9.2%	9.2%	50.0%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,300	2B	$4,500
9	Vance Worley	RIGHT	0.250	0.159	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	30.0%	75.0%	P	$6,000	P	$5,800	P	$11,600

The overall numbers for German Marquez have been relatively splits-neutral, but he has shown some reverse splits tendencies. He allows more hard contact and gets fewer ground balls against RHBs, so there is some danger lurking with the ever-present power of the red hot Giancarlo Stanton. I’m probably not going wild here, but there is power potential with some of the Marlins hitters. That’s where I would stick if you are looking for some Miami exposure.

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Minnesota at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Detroit
			Ervin Santana							Matt Boyd
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-108							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	0.298	28.9%	6.6%	16.7%	45.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.295	22.7%	8.3%	15.9%	55.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.303	0.315	29.5%	8.4%	22.3%	39.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	0.326	35.3%	7.9%	18.9%	35.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ervin Santana
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$18,400
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	30	4.29	3.38	19.9%	7.1%	42.6%	29.3%	19.0%
	2017	22	4.72	3.28	19.2%	8.2%	41.7%	29.0%	21.5%
	L30	4	4.67	4.68	21.2%	7.7%	29.7%	36.5%	25.7%

Ervin Santana has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, as he continues to pitch to numbers that drastically exceed his advanced metrics. We have finally started to see some regression, but his 4.67 SIERA is still about a run and a half worse than his ERA. As a massive fly ball pitcher, he often gets on the good side of BABIP luck, so he will always be a guy that tends to have a better ERA than his advanced numbers would indicate. Still, if you think I am paying for him as one of the three most expensive pitchers on today’s main slate, I have three letters for you: L, O, and L. These two teams played a 12-11 thriller yesterday, and while I don’t expect that kind of game again today, I don’t want to mess with these offenses right now.

Quick Breakdown: Santana isn’t as good as his surface numbers indicate, and today is not a great day to target him in DFS formats. He’s simply too expensive.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,400
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	2016	18	4.38	4.53	19.9%	7.0%	38.1%	30.0%	19.2%
	2017	15	5.11	5.35	16.6%	9.0%	40.8%	36.7%	20.5%
	L30	4	4.50	4.56	22.2%	8.1%	31.8%	22.1%	30.9%

The Twins had won six games in a row before losing Saturday on a walk off in the ninth inning, and Minnesota still scored 11 runs in that game. Their offense is simply clicking right now, and I do not want to target really any pitchers against them. When the opposing pitcher is Matt Boyd, who has a 5.64 ERA, 5.06 SIERA, and 36.4% hard contact rate allowed this year, the decision is very easy.

Quick Breakdown: Boyd is not a fantasy option even in a good matchup, and he’s certainly off the radar against the red hot Twins offense.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.421	0.378	0.264	38.9%	11.4%	18.1%	47.2%	2B	$4,100	2B	$5,100	2B	$10,000
2	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.343	0.381	0.090	40.5%	21.2%	13.3%	41.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,600
3	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.353	0.365	0.206	32.1%	7.5%	15.1%	34.6%	SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
4	Chris Gimenez	RIGHT	0.308	0.334	0.224	43.2%	8.9%	23.2%	40.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,100	C	$4,000
5	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.309	0.241	0.144	25.6%	2.0%	20.8%	54.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,200
6	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.294	0.303	0.056	26.9%	14.1%	24.7%	37.5%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
7	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.230	0.265	0.080	18.2%	3.7%	14.8%	50.0%	3B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,700	SS	$5,200
8	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.167	0.218	0.035	21.7%	6.5%	28.0%	49.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,300
9	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.213	0.229	0.091	27.4%	2.9%	15.5%	40.2%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,800

Any time you have a mediocre lefty taking the mound against the Twins, you have to put your antenna up for targeting guys like Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano. Dozier has a .412 wOBA and .255 ISO against LHP this year and has made a career out of terrorizing left-handed pitchers, while Sano has a .414 wOBA and .298 ISO against lefties. Robbie Grossman has been better against LHP for his career but has struggled more this season. The good news is that he has the best BvP numbers on the team against Boyd (5-for-12 with two home runs). Chris Gimenez has been catching and hitting in the middle of the order against southpaws lately, so he could be a nice value at a position that is usually very thin on Sundays with regular catchers getting days off after Saturday night contests.

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman, Chris Gimenez, Eduardo Escobar

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.307	0.316	0.120	34.0%	10.3%	12.2%	33.2%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,400
2	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.342	0.317	0.127	34.4%	8.2%	22.4%	48.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.357	0.352	0.232	43.0%	11.8%	28.7%	37.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,600
4	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.312	0.387	0.177	45.6%	10.2%	20.4%	41.9%	1B	$3,300	1B	$2,800	1B	$5,600
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.294	0.336	0.145	46.1%	8.2%	26.0%	39.9%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,100
6	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.296	0.363	0.129	42.4%	8.2%	14.0%	39.9%	C	$2,300	1B	$2,200	1B	$4,200
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.265	0.302	0.120	39.8%	7.2%	25.7%	38.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,300	C	$4,400
8	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.284	0.289	0.118	24.3%	6.5%	18.3%	44.0%	OF	$2,300	2B/OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,800
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.284	0.251	0.105	30.8%	4.4%	14.6%	53.0%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800

Despite the fact that I am not a believer in Santana, it’s also not wise to load up on hitters against him. Stacks rarely work out because of Santana’s fly ball nature, so it’s hard to string hits together against him. Should you elect to take some hitters against him, it’s wise to simply look for power. Santana has allowed 25 home runs this season: 14 to RHBs and 11 to LHBs, and his batted ball profile is pretty splits-neutral. I won’t be full stacking the Tigers, but I’ll gladly take some one off power.

Elite Plays – Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Tampa Bay
			Corey Kluber							Austin Pruitt
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-180							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.274	0.279	28.8%	7.1%	26.9%	46.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.318	0.291	26.7%	2.6%	16.7%	48.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.261	0.261	28.1%	5.7%	32.4%	45.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.374	0.341	36.1%	7.6%	20.2%	44.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,800	Salary:		$13,500	Salary:		$26,100
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2016	32	3.50	3.14	26.4%	6.6%	44.5%	27.6%	19.9%
	2017	18	2.60	2.77	35.8%	5.8%	48.2%	30.2%	22.3%
	L30	5	2.07	2.55	41.6%	5.1%	45.1%	29.2%	23.6%

The Klubot is back and better than ever, and boy is he fun to watch. Since returning from the disabled list on the 1st of June, Kluber has made 13 starts. In those outings, he has a 1.70 ERA, a laughable 142/15 K/BB ratio, and flat out dominant numbers across the board. He has struck out 10 or more hitters in all but two of those starts. He has struck out at least eight in all of them. His last two outings have both been complete game victories with one run allowed, three hits allowed, and 11 strikeouts. The only difference between his last two starts is that he walked one batter in one of them and zero in the other. I could go on and on, but the point is: this guy is amazing. A matchup against a Rays team that strikes out a ton should only serve to keep the good vibes rolling.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is pitching on another level right now, and he’s making a case to be the best starting pitcher in baseball. Fire him up as the top option of the day in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Austin Pruitt
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30

	2017	3	4.01	5.65	18.8%	5.6%	46.2%	32.2%	17.1%
	L30	2	4.15	3.97	22.2%	6.7%	48.4%	34.4%	21.9%

Austin Pruitt is about to make his fourth start since entering the rotation full time last month, and he will have faced Houston, New York (AL), Boston, and Cleveland in those starts. How’s that for a welcome present? Go get ‘em, kid. After struggling against the Yankees, he has fared much better against the Astros and Red Sox, and there is some promise with this kid. He has a quality curveball that he can locate well, and command has never been an issue for him at any level. That’s one of the most promising signs in a young pitcher. The Rays will likely be careful with his innings, so I don’t expect him to go super deep into the game, but he has thrown six innings or more in his last two starts. I can potentially see some appeal here if you are digging the barrel for a cheap arm.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup is a concern, but Pruitt is a talented young arm who won’t beat himself. He’s a risk/reward GPP option on the cheap that is better utilized in multiple pitcher formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.309	0.323	0.192	30.5%	7.7%	14.1%	39.2%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
2	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.332	0.306	0.106	41.2%	10.4%	23.4%	42.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	CF	$6,000
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.394	0.351	0.252	33.6%	7.9%	11.0%	37.2%	3B	$3,400	2B/3B	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.351	0.359	0.233	37.6%	12.3%	22.2%	35.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.367	0.364	0.273	42.5%	9.6%	22.3%	33.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,800
6	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.347	0.376	0.207	36.8%	13.4%	20.1%	33.5%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.264	0.277	0.081	25.9%	9.7%	24.9%	40.5%	C	$2,300	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.343	0.324	0.204	37.1%	9.6%	28.3%	45.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
9	Giovanny Urshela	RIGHT	0.268	0.276	0.042	27.3%	13.8%	10.3%	47.6%	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,500	3B	$4,800

Well, I already wrote about how I respect the ability of young Austin Pruitt, so I’m lukewarm at best on the Cleveland offense this afternoon. His batted ball profile clearly shows reverse splits as of now, but the sample size is still way too small for us to make any sure fire conclusions. Cleveland doesn’t have a super high team total today, and they might be over-owned in GPPs. I advise caution here, and I like the idea of a calculated tournament fade.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.358	0.322	0.235	35.5%	6.6%	22.8%	38.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
2	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.387	0.393	0.295	43.1%	14.2%	23.0%	26.9%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,500
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.338	0.317	0.190	32.1%	5.0%	14.0%	44.2%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.376	0.387	0.301	41.9%	14.9%	24.4%	31.8%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.396	0.382	0.313	39.4%	12.6%	29.2%	41.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
6	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.295	0.317	0.095	33.9%	20.8%	25.2%	53.2%	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,600
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.185	0.291	0.111	34.0%	2.9%	25.0%	44.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,200	C	$4,400
8	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.325	0.258	0.103	22.5%	10.9%	20.1%	52.7%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.237	0.265	0.036	26.1%	2.1%	20.3%	52.3%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,300	SS	$4,400

If you are thinking about taking Rays hitters against Corey Kluber, let me know. I can post some head to head games for you to take today. Kluber is the hottest pitcher on the planet. Don’t even bother with this.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

San Francisco at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Francisco								Washington
			Chris Stratton							A.J. Cole
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.417	0.334	20.0%	17.9%	8.9%	42.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	0.303	31.6%	13.0%	20.0%	32.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	0.374	31.5%	9.5%	17.6%	46.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.289	22.5%	6.9%	22.6%	35.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Stratton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30
	2016	0	5.35	3.60	14.0%	11.6%	40.6%	18.8%	18.8%
	2017	2	5.77	6.63	13.8%	13.8%	46.8%	30.7%	24.2%
	L30	1	4.89	4.00	19.1%	11.9%	42.9%	32.1%	17.9%

The Giants and Nationals are playing a double-header today, so you might be able to find Game 2 on some afternoon/evening slates. That does not have a separate entry in this article, but I will briefly touch on it here. In Game #1, Chris Stratton takes the mound for the Giants. He was originally scheduled to start on Friday before the game got rained out. Then, he got pushed back to Sunday to keep Jeff Samardzija on regular rest. Here is what we had in the Grind Down about him prior to yesterday’s game:

Stratton has not been sharp in his first two major league starts, posting a 5.77 SIERA with a walk rate (14%) that matches his strikeout rate (14%). He’s not considered a top pitching prospect and posted mediocre numbers at the Triple-A level earlier this season. He comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog against the Nationals, who are ranked second in team wOBA and eighth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Matt Moore will be starting the second game, and he has been awful this season. Basically, you do not want to consider the pitchers for the Giants today for either game.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chris Stratton in Game 1, and avoid Matt Moore in Game 2.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
A.J. Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2016	8	4.33	5.17	23.2%	8.3%	31.9%	25.7%	18.6%
	2017	2	6.50	4.91	14.3%	16.3%	41.2%	32.4%	20.6%
	L30	1	5.92	9.00	20.0%	16.0%	31.3%	31.3%	31.3%

We don’t have the largest of sample sizes yet, but A.J. Cole has really struggled to transition to the major leagues. He has a 5.37 ERA over 63 2/3 innings at the MLB level, and he has struggled mightily in three starts this year. His minor league numbers are very poor this year, too, with a 5.66 ERA in 16 starts at Triple-A. Control has been a major issue, and his numbers are just bad across the board. Even against a bad offense like the Giants, there’s not much to like here.

Quick Breakdown: With poor numbers at both the AAA and major league level this year, Cole can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.346	0.337	0.188	26.4%	6.1%	11.8%	38.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.310	0.300	0.149	27.0%	7.8%	10.2%	41.9%	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,900	2B	$5,700
3	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.306	0.282	0.185	31.3%	6.9%	37.9%	50.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	LF	$6,000
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.353	0.370	0.122	31.0%	10.2%	11.3%	43.5%	C	$2,900	1B/C	$3,800	C	$7,600
5	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.300	0.346	0.183	44.4%	7.8%	22.2%	47.6%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,100	3B	$6,000
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.261	0.293	0.129	32.7%	6.1%	21.4%	50.5%	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,600
7	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.272	0.269	0.097	28.0%	4.7%	22.5%	61.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
8	Ryder Jones	LEFT	0.128	0.181	0.000	10.0%	3.8%	19.2%	30.0%	1B	$2,100	1B/3B	$2,000	3B	$4,000
9	Chris Stratton	LEFT	0.119	0.132	0.000	10.0%	3.1%	34.4%	73.3%	P	$6,600	P	$5,000	P	$9,900

The Giants draw a fine matchup here against A.J. Cole, but it’s never fun to target their offense. They have some of the worst numbers in baseball as a team, and there isn’t much upside here. If you want a hint as to just how bad things are, the team re-acquired Pablo Sandoval after he was let go by the Red Sox. That’s not a good sign. I will likely have some exposure here because Cole has been so bad, but it’s mainly to take a shot on some value options.

Elite Plays – Buster Posey, Jarrett Parker

Secondary Plays – Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Ryder Jones (if not hitting 8th)

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.310	0.309	0.242	33.3%	9.1%	24.0%	40.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,400
2	Adrian Sanchez	RIGHT	0.117	0.245	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	46.7%	42.9%	2B	$2,700	2B/SS	$2,600	SS	$5,200
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.459	0.436	0.348	36.4%	16.8%	17.1%	36.4%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,800
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.381	0.374	0.252	40.5%	6.5%	21.4%	47.7%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.392	0.368	0.238	33.6%	14.3%	14.3%	36.5%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,800
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.278	0.294	0.123	31.9%	6.4%	20.1%	39.6%	C	$2,800	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
7	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.359	0.292	0.099	29.5%	3.8%	20.8%	62.8%	OF	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.266	0.278	0.078	21.2%	8.1%	20.6%	56.5%	SS	$2,900	2B/SS	$3,900	2B	$7,600
9	A.J. Cole	RIGHT	0.000	0.169	0.000	50.0%	0.0%	33.3%	100.0%	P	$6,700	P	$6,500	P	$12,900

With a double-header already scheduled for today, the Nationals decided to wait out heavy rains last night and play after a long delay. That might have cost them dearly, as Bryce Harper slipped on the first base bag and may have suffered a severe knee injury. Even though he is listed in the projected lineup above, he will not be playing today. Despite that, the Nationals are still in a great spot against Stratton in Game #1 and Moore in Game #2. You can fire them up as a top offense today.

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 13th

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Stackability Rating System:

Pittsburgh at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, David Freese, Sean Rodriguez

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales (if he is back in the lineup), possible left-handed value bats (Carrera, Goins)

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Colorado at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Gerardo Parra

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Minnesota at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman, Chris Gimenez, Eduardo Escobar

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

San Francisco at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Buster Posey, Jarrett Parker

Secondary Plays – Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Ryder Jones (if not hitting 8th)

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Howie Kendrick

Stackability – GREEN

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