MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-12 18:35:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Chicago Cubs
			Trevor Williams							Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-180							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.305	24.7%	7.3%	15.9%	47.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.324	33.9%	10.1%	22.9%	41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.291	0.337	34.4%	9.4%	19.4%	47.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.274	0.299	25.7%	4.5%	18.9%	56.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:			Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		of 13	Salary Rank:		of 13	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.63	4.07	18.2%	8.1%	48.0%	28.9%	21.8%
	2018	2	5.73	1.59	10.9%	13.0%	45.7%	37.1%	14.3%

Does anyone remember what the very first step of the research process should be when there is a game in Wrigley Field? Check the wind. This is the ballpark that is most impacted by wind, as it can turn into a pitcher-friendly or hitter-friendly park based on the wind’s direction and strength. It looks like there are winds in the low to mid-teens blowing out to right field, which should lead to a high scoring game. However, the total is set at only 8.0 runs, perhaps due to the cold weather. Not only is this a bad matchup for Williams, but he doesn’t offer much strikeout upside to begin with.

Quick Breakdown: Williams offers more risk than upside.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:			Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		of 13	Salary Rank:		of 13	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.08	3.03	21.6%	7.0%	50.1%	30.4%	22.5%
	2018	2	4.87	4.09	11.8%	7.8%	46.2%	17.5%	37.5%

I should mention that as of right now, this game isn’t included in any of the major slates across the industry, so most of you can just scroll down to the next game. Hendricks has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, but he had an average k-rate last season, which allowed us to target him in favorable matchups. He hasn’t been great in that department so far this season, striking out only 12% of the batter that he has faced. The Pirates have been red-hot at the plate and the wind blowing out to right isn’t going to help either of these pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is the preferred target over Williams, but both are easy fades in any kind of all-day leagues.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

If this game is included in any of the slates that you are playing on today, you should load up on the hitters from both teams. The Pirates may not have the most potent offense in baseball, but they have been very good at the plate to start the season. They also benefit from 14+ MPH winds blowing out to right field. Not only will the wind help the left-handed hitters, but Kyle Hendricks has given up a significantly higher xwOBA and hard contact to batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.321	0.323	0.140	33.6%	5.0%	16.1%	34.8%	N/A	N/A
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.323	0.340	0.182	29.2%	8.2%	12.2%	40.1%	N/A	N/A
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.357	0.340	0.142	27.1%	7.4%	17.1%	47.8%	N/A	N/A
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.344	0.334	0.207	32.6%	11.3%	19.6%	52.0%	N/A	N/A
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.343	0.336	0.225	34.3%	5.8%	23.0%	38.3%	N/A	N/A
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.319	0.337	0.121	32.8%	11.2%	19.8%	47.2%	N/A	N/A
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.409	0.465	0.189	39.4%	7.5%	10.0%	36.4%	N/A	N/A
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.314	0.303	0.149	27.6%	9.2%	15.4%	47.4%	N/A	N/A
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.080	0.169	0.000	11.1%	4.7%	32.6%	63.6%	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Colin Moran

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are an even better stack than the Pirates. They are playing at home and draw the better matchup of the two offenses. Trevor Williams has a high walk rate and a low strikeout rate, which means the Cubs will have no problem putting the ball in play. Batters from both sides of the plate are viable here, as the wind should help the left-handed hitters, while Williams has struggled with right-handed hitters throughout his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.345	0.341	0.272	34.7%	11.0%	34.0%	40.6%	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.399	0.366	0.251	31.9%	13.0%	19.8%	37.9%	N/A	N/A
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.326	0.346	0.152	32.7%	11.3%	14.3%	50.7%	N/A	N/A
4	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.346	0.362	0.277	37.9%	11.5%	29.9%	40.8%	N/A	N/A
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.288	0.299	0.165	33.8%	6.4%	22.9%	38.8%	N/A	N/A
6	Victor Caratini	SWITCH	0.253	0.279	0.098	21.7%	4.6%	23.1%	65.2%	N/A	N/A
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.323	0.290	0.213	30.4%	6.2%	28.9%	48.6%	N/A	N/A
8	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.319	0.342	0.142	27.3%	10.5%	11.1%	47.2%	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.136	0.120	0.029	11.8%	0.0%	52.8%	64.3%	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Ian Happ, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Cleveland
			Michael Fulmer							Trevor Bauer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-190							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.319	35.7%	5.6%	18.1%	44.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.343	33.3%	8.7%	23.7%	42.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.268	0.310	25.3%	6.7%	15.4%	52.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.304	35.1%	7.5%	28.6%	48.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Fulmer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 13	Salary Rank:		of 13	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.48	3.83	16.9%	5.9%	49.2%	30.0%	18.1%
	2018	2	4.87	0.68	13.7%	9.8%	43.2%	29.0%	21.1%

Fulmer didn’t have the best 2017 campaign and so far, 2018 has been even worse. He hasn’t given up many runs, but a 4.87 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 12% are far from appealing. He will likely continue to struggle today, as he takes on a talented Indians’ offense on the road. Fulmer checks into the game as a large underdog with the total set at 8.0 runs. The Indians are a tough offense to target pitchers against because they draw walks, they have a low strikeout rate, and they have power on both sides of the plate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fulmer in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 13	Salary Rank:		of 13	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.80	4.19	26.2%	8.0%	46.4%	34.4%	15.0%
	2018	2	3.55	2.08	26.4%	9.4%	32.3%	34.4%	18.8%

Bauer was routinely underpriced in DFS last season. His ERA was higher than his SIERA, so even though he had an above-average strikeout rate, his price never really reflected it. He’s affordable today against the Tigers, who have a right-handed heavy lineup with five batters that have a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching. Bauer is pitching at home, he’s a large favorite, and he has plenty of upside in this matchup. The only negative is that he’s not included in the main slate.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are an offense that we can target against southpaws and right-handed pitchers that struggle with right-handed hitters. They are an easy team to avoid when facing a good righty. Trevor Bauer isn’t what we would call elite, but he’s better than most people realize. In addition to a high strikeout rate, he has held right-handed hitters to a .304 xwOBA since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.244	0.290	0.093	26.2%	7.8%	24.2%	35.7%	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.327	0.308	0.142	24.8%	10.6%	20.0%	47.7%	3B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.290	0.375	0.145	41.7%	8.8%	20.0%	42.1%	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.329	0.375	0.188	43.6%	6.4%	22.8%	35.7%	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.312	0.375	0.130	42.9%	9.0%	14.2%	38.0%	C	$2,400	N/A	N/A
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.253	0.290	0.129	36.4%	6.1%	27.3%	63.6%	1B	$2,600	N/A	N/A
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.268	0.300	0.108	35.8%	5.8%	25.6%	38.9%	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
8	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.318	0.296	0.147	32.8%	7.0%	22.1%	46.7%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.271	0.257	0.113	27.0%	4.3%	15.2%	52.3%	SS	$2,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Even though Michael Fulmer doesn’t have the most attractive numbers, he’s not really a pitcher that we love to pick on. He has an above-average ground ball rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA since the start of last season. I’m not saying that we can’t play a few Indians’ hitters here, but there are better matchups if you are playing the bigger slates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.329	0.354	0.222	32.5%	8.3%	13.8%	40.0%	SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.289	0.312	0.179	32.8%	7.0%	20.5%	32.0%	2B	$2,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.382	0.355	0.261	31.4%	9.8%	10.2%	37.6%	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.358	0.371	0.170	39.3%	10.1%	13.6%	48.0%	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.376	0.396	0.267	37.1%	13.2%	19.4%	34.3%	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.378	0.390	0.233	36.5%	14.2%	22.3%	33.8%	1B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
7	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.266	0.288	0.134	26.9%	10.1%	29.2%	50.5%	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.247	0.268	0.104	31.4%	7.5%	26.4%	51.4%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.294	0.299	0.149	36.5%	8.3%	33.3%	44.4%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Cincinnati
			Michael Wacha							Sal Romano
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-130							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.305	0.332	30.7%	10.4%	19.4%	46.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.323	36.6%	10.3%	18.7%	45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.304	27.7%	6.5%	24.5%	48.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.303	29.0%	9.1%	16.5%	56.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Wacha
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		8 of 13	Salary Rank:		of 13	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	4.14	4.13	22.5%	7.9%	48.0%	28.0%	20.2%
	2018	2	5.64	5.59	15.6%	15.6%	37.9%	46.7%	6.7%

Wacha has really struggled in his first two starts of the season. He has as many walks as strikeouts and currently owns a 5.64 SIERA. He now has to pitch on the road in a home run-friendly ballpark. He is listed as a small favorite here, but Trevor Bauer is clearly the play in the afternoon slate. The Reds may not have a ton of firepower in their lineup, but they strikeout at a low rate and tend to play well at home.

Quick Breakdown: Wacha is the preferred pitcher in this game, but there are better options on the board.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sal Romano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		12 of 13	Salary Rank:		of 13	Salary Rank:
	2017	16	4.72	4.45	19.0%	9.6%	50.4%	32.6%	21.5%
	2018	2	5.84	5.73	6.1%	10.2%	55.0%	31.7%	34.2%

Romano had a couple of decent starts last season, but is a below-average major league pitcher. He has not been sharp in his first two starts of the season, as evidenced by a 5.84 SIERA and a 6% strikeout rate. Luckily, he has a high ground ball rate, which is needed in this ballpark. With that said, he still lacks upside and he draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Cardinals, who have five hitters with a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Romano is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

My Cardinals’ stack didn’t quite work out as well as I had hoped yesterday, but this is still an offense that I have a lot of confidence in. They have struggled against southpaws over the last two seasons, but a healthy Tommy Pham and the addition of Marcell Ozuna should fix that problem. They have always hit righties well and they face one tonight in Sal Romano, who has given up a .323 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter are the top targets individually, but I certainly don’t mind a Cardinals’ stack in this ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.357	0.361	0.232	37.1%	12.9%	21.9%	37.6%	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.392	0.369	0.196	35.0%	12.4%	22.7%	50.9%	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.374	0.388	0.234	43.1%	17.9%	19.8%	25.2%	3B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.393	0.373	0.254	40.4%	8.3%	22.7%	45.4%	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.343	0.393	0.149	34.8%	9.0%	18.3%	46.5%	1B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.306	0.321	0.138	33.3%	5.2%	14.3%	44.8%	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.353	0.344	0.227	36.6%	3.3%	28.0%	32.1%	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.329	0.315	0.130	27.2%	9.3%	13.8%	47.8%	2B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
9	Michael Wacha	RIGHT	0.039	0.102	0.000	14.8%	2.1%	40.4%	73.7%	P	$6,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds’ matchup against Michael Wacha doesn’t look great on paper, but his velocity is down this season and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. We can give a small edge to the left-handed hitters, as Wacha has given up a .332 xwOBA to batters from that side of the plate. This brings Jesse Winker, Scooter Gennett, and Joey Votto into the mix, as they all have a .235+ ISO against righties. Tucker Barnhart also offers nice value at catcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.409	0.380	0.210	34.0%	13.7%	19.2%	52.1%	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.269	0.285	0.068	20.1%	3.2%	14.5%	43.4%	SS	$2,300	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.425	0.436	0.238	36.6%	18.2%	9.9%	36.6%	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.381	0.347	0.244	37.1%	6.2%	20.5%	38.9%	2B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.298	0.282	0.205	30.5%	5.2%	28.6%	32.0%	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.332	0.338	0.142	34.6%	10.0%	15.9%	41.3%	C	$2,400	N/A	N/A
7	Cliff Pennington	SWITCH	0.310	0.277	0.098	28.3%	11.4%	28.7%	38.1%	SS	$2,200	N/A	N/A
8	Sal Romano	RIGHT	0.088	0.109	0.048	14.3%	3.6%	46.4%	83.3%	P	$5,700	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.294	0.257	0.088	15.5%	9.1%	20.2%	47.8%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Tucker Barnhart

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Washington
			Chad Bettis							Gio Gonzalez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-175							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.338	0.324	33.7%	6.6%	18.0%	47.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.241	0.271	23.7%	7.2%	22.7%	50.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.360	0.351	28.6%	7.3%	12.1%	47.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.306	31.4%	10.1%	23.1%	43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Bettis
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$11,700
	Salary Rank:		13 of 13	Salary Rank:		8 of 13	Salary Rank:		8 of 13
	2017	9	4.74	5.05	15.0%	5.5%	48.4%	28.5%	18.4%
	2018	2	5.24	2.53	15.2%	13.0%	43.3%	43.8%	18.8%

Bettis has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher on the schedule, which immediately hurts his floor and ceiling projections. When a pitcher has a low strikeout rate, they can’t afford to make mistakes. In a matchup against the Nationals on the road, I have a hard time seeing Bettis pitch well enough to pay off his salary. The bottom of the Nationals’ lineup isn’t great, but their first five batters are tough outs, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Bettis is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$19,800
	Salary Rank:		3 of 13	Salary Rank:		2 of 13	Salary Rank:		2 of 13
	2017	32	4.41	2.96	22.7%	9.6%	45.8%	29.3%	21.9%
	2018	2	3.28	1.59	27.1%	8.3%	35.5%	35.5%	9.7%

I used to have a Gio problem. I would roster him often, he would let me down, and then I’d go right back to the well in fear of missing out. Luckily, I finally cured my problem last season by avoiding him completely. Tonight’s matchup against the Rockies actually sets up pretty well for Gio. They aren’t nearly as effective on the road and have five batters in their lineup with a strikeout rate of at least 23% against left-handed pitching (and that doesn’t even include the pitcher). Gonzalez is a large favorite and he’s pitching at home in a good ballpark. He has also been very sharp in his first two starts of the season.

Quick Breakdown: I hate to say it, but I’m getting sucked right back in. Gonzalez is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies aren’t an offense that I would look to stack in this slate, but there are a few intriguing tournament plays. Gio Gonzalez tends to struggle when we expect him to pitch well and he hasn’t been nearly as effective against right-handed hitters as he has against lefties in his career. DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story all bat from the right side and all boast a .400+ wOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.408	0.363	0.234	34.4%	7.5%	16.5%	50.0%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,000	CF	$10,000
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.407	0.398	0.189	37.1%	10.1%	10.1%	55.1%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,500
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.533	0.461	0.408	38.0%	10.1%	10.1%	26.0%	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,000
4	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.418	0.347	0.338	48.4%	12.0%	33.7%	28.4%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,300
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.308	0.266	0.144	27.4%	5.7%	23.8%	65.5%	1B	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
6	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.236	0.225	0.101	33.7%	3.9%	30.3%	59.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,500
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.405	0.340	0.253	32.4%	14.3%	24.1%	47.1%	C	$2,900	C	$3,400	C	$6,900
8	Pat Valaika	RIGHT	0.335	0.295	0.267	31.8%	6.1%	26.5%	29.5%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,400
9	Chad Bettis	RIGHT	0.000	0.149	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$5,500	P	$6,000	P	$11,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu (GPP), Nolan Arenado (GPP), Trevor Story (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals are one of the top offenses to target in the main slate. They are playing at home, they have a high implied run total, and they are facing a hittable pitching in Chad Bettis. Since the start of last season, Bettis has allowed a .324 xwOBA to lefties and a .351 xwOBA to righties. The one-through-five stack is viable in tournaments and you can target any of them as individual plays. In case you have been hiding under a rock, Bryce Harper is pretty good at this baseball thing. He owns a .533 wOBA and a .408 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.325	0.322	0.232	34.7%	9.0%	23.9%	39.6%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,300
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.346	0.327	0.183	28.5%	7.7%	18.7%	51.2%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,400
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.453	0.437	0.347	36.0%	17.4%	16.7%	37.5%	OF	$5,400	OF	$5,800	RF	$10,700
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.378	0.366	0.200	32.6%	12.7%	13.7%	34.8%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,500	3B	$9,400
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.362	0.378	0.246	39.6%	6.9%	23.9%	46.2%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,600
6	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.354	0.309	0.148	29.2%	4.8%	19.6%	61.4%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,700
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.265	0.301	0.111	28.5%	8.3%	18.1%	41.5%	C	$2,500	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.320	0.288	0.201	33.3%	7.0%	31.8%	42.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,700
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.123	0.152	0.000	9.1%	6.3%	41.3%	53.8%	P	$8,600	P	$10,100	P	$19,800

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Yankees at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Boston
			Sonny Gray							Rick Porcello
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-105							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	0.310	25.6%	9.4%	22.5%	52.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.354	0.351	40.7%	6.4%	21.0%	33.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.315	29.5%	7.9%	23.0%	54.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.317	35.1%	4.1%	20.1%	45.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$15,500
	Salary Rank:		4 of 13	Salary Rank:		4 of 13	Salary Rank:		4 of 13
	2017	27	4.08	3.55	22.6%	8.4%	52.8%	28.0%	16.8%
	2018	2	3.12	3.60	26.1%	10.9%	64.3%	24.1%	27.6%

Gray is a pitcher that I will target often this season. He has the two things that I love most when evaluating a pitcher — a high strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. This allows him to rack up fantasy points, while also limiting damage. Unfortunately, targeting pitchers against the Red Sox is not a profitable strategy over the long run. Even as a huge Masahiro Tanaka homer, I didn’t play him last night. The Red Sox work counts, they draw walks, and they rarely strikeout. Oh, and they play in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: These rivalry games tend to be high scoring. Gray is an easy fade given the matchup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:		5 of 13	Salary Rank:		3 of 13	Salary Rank:		3 of 13
	2017	33	4.28	4.65	20.5%	5.4%	39.2%	38.3%	17.1%
	2018	2	3.08	2.84	21.6%	2.0%	51.3%	28.2%	18.0%

Porcello pitched well in his last start, but that 38% hard contact rate from last season is a big red flag in a matchup against the Yankees. I always advocate taking high upside contrarian plays in tournaments, but we never need to take unnecessary risks. The Yankees’ offense is absolutely loaded and this game is being played in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Even in this small slate, there are better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Porcello in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

This is a great game to target for hitters. I’m fine with a Yankees’ stack, I’m fine with a Red Sox stack, and I’m fine stacking the game as a whole. There is no love lost between these two teams and as we’ve seen in the first two games in the series, runs can be put up on the board quickly. Since the beginning of last season, Rick Porcello has allowed a .351 xwOBA to lefties and a .317 xwOBA to righties. He has also given up a 35%+ hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.359	0.335	0.187	31.8%	11.5%	18.9%	43.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,800
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.437	0.443	0.350	43.3%	16.4%	30.3%	34.9%	OF	$4,700	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,500
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.381	0.374	0.311	38.4%	10.9%	27.4%	44.6%	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,000
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.373	0.311	0.253	27.4%	6.0%	10.9%	35.9%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,600	SS	$9,300
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.350	0.377	0.240	35.6%	6.0%	21.9%	43.2%	C	$3,400	C	$4,100	C	$8,100
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.358	0.368	0.183	34.7%	12.8%	16.2%	38.4%	1B	$2,900	1B/2B	$3,100	2B	$5,500
7	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.284	0.290	0.188	34.6%	7.5%	41.5%	30.8%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,100	1B	$5,600
8	Tyler Wade	LEFT	0.220	0.261	0.087	18.4%	9.2%	26.3%	50.0%	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,900	2B	$5,900
9	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.206	0.287	0.091	26.3%	4.2%	16.7%	42.1%	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,600

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker

Stackability – GREEN

Boston

The Red Sox have a tougher matchup on paper, but they put up 14 runs on Luis Severino and the Yankees’ bullpen on Wednesday. This is an offense that makes pitchers work for every out. Sonny Gray does have a high ground ball rate, which helps him limit hard contact, but I’m still on board with a Red Sox stack. Each of the first five batters in this lineup have a .175+ ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.338	0.354	0.190	37.4%	9.6%	11.6%	39.3%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,200
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.346	0.346	0.177	35.4%	10.7%	16.2%	38.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800	LF	$8,300
3	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.335	0.362	0.186	34.9%	7.9%	20.3%	41.2%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.395	0.412	0.343	49.2%	9.4%	27.6%	42.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,200
5	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.317	0.303	0.201	37.3%	7.2%	21.3%	47.4%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,300
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.346	0.268	0.157	26.3%	3.1%	11.6%	52.2%	SS	$2,900	2B/SS	$3,400	3B	$6,400
7	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.300	0.322	0.160	34.6%	8.7%	22.8%	45.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,500
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.261	0.259	0.112	31.5%	7.5%	26.4%	35.9%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$4,800
9	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.234	0.258	0.047	20.6%	11.5%	21.6%	53.6%	2B	$2,200	2B/OF	$2,900	3B	$5,400

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 12th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Colin Moran

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ian Happ, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Tucker Barnhart

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu (GPP), Nolan Arenado (GPP), Trevor Story (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Yankees at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker

Stackability – GREEN

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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