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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-03 17:40:15

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Pittsburgh at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Washington
pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams washingtonmlb Jeremy Hellickson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.309 22.9% 8.5% 15.1% 45.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.359 32.8% 7.3% 13.6% 30.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.331 34.6% 9.2% 20.5% 45.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.344 30.4% 6.2% 14.1% 39.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank: 11 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.63 4.07 18.2% 8.1% 48.0% 28.9% 21.8%
2018 6 5.41 2.29 16.4% 12.1% 35.1% 27.0% 26.0%

There are six early games on the schedule today. The Dodgers/Diamonbacks game is featured in the early slate on DraftKings, but not on FanDuel. Keep that in mind when reading the Grind Down. We start with Williams, who has a 2.29 ERA that is not supported by his peripheral statistics. Through six starts, he has a 5.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 12%. The Nationals are missing a few of their best hitters, but they still have enough talent to knock Williams around a bit.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Williams in all formats.

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,500
Salary Rank: 19 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 17 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 5.37 5.43 13.8% 6.8% 34.9% 32.0% 19.9%
2018 3 4.83 4.11 14.5% 6.5% 42.6% 26.5% 28.6%

Hellickson had a disappointing 2017 season and he’s off to a familiar start here in 2018. In three starts, he has a 4.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15%. He’s done a nice job of limiting hard contact, but that hasn’t helped him much. His matchup against the Pirates isn’t particularly difficult, but they have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: We have a low strikeout pitcher against a low strikeout offense.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw their best matchup so far this series, as they take on Jeremy Hellickson. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .344+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. There aren’t any standout plays from Pittsburgh, but their offense as a whole is in a good spot. I would treat the Pirates’ hitters as lineup fillers rather than lineup starters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.327 0.254 0.131 28.3% 7.9% 12.7% 48.9% OF $2,200 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,900
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.339 0.317 0.177 30.5% 8.7% 14.3% 40.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,400
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.325 0.301 0.131 25.3% 7.2% 17.7% 47.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,500 CF $9,000
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.325 0.233 0.190 32.3% 10.4% 20.1% 52.4% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 1B $6,800
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.335 0.324 0.219 33.8% 6.2% 21.0% 36.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,000 LF $7,500
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.347 0.398 0.147 34.1% 10.4% 19.3% 45.8% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,300
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.378 0.307 0.155 36.8% 10.4% 17.7% 39.7% 3B $3,000 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.299 0.275 0.145 26.9% 8.9% 16.4% 45.6% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.148 0.085 0.000 9.7% 3.8% 36.5% 61.5% P $7,100 P $6,100 P $12,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals are in a good spot once again. They aren’t huge favorites here, but the total for the game is set at 9.5 runs. Trevor Williams is a low-strikeout pitcher that has struggled with right-handed hitters in his career. This brings the full Nationals’ stack into play, as we can always target Bryce Harper and Matt Adams against righties, even ones with reverse splits.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.432 0.422 0.337 36.5% 19.3% 17.1% 37.2% OF $5,100 OF $5,700 RF $10,900
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.328 0.347 0.175 30.1% 7.8% 18.5% 52.2% SS $4,500 SS $4,500 IF/OF $8,900
3 Matt Adams LEFT 0.368 0.418 0.260 39.6% 7.8% 24.4% 35.8% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $3,800 1B $8,000
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.378 0.387 0.239 40.2% 6.7% 23.8% 46.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,500 1B $6,300
5 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.316 0.350 0.170 30.6% 4.9% 20.8% 60.5% 2B $3,300 2B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,900
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.295 0.364 0.191 32.3% 8.0% 31.0% 43.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,200
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.311 0.488 0.120 28.7% 8.7% 17.8% 40.9% C $2,300 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.156 0.100 0.107 13.0% 8.8% 23.5% 84.2% P $5,600 P $4,400 P $8,500
9 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.269 0.233 0.064 19.8% 7.8% 20.5% 53.9% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,000 2B $5,700

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Matt Adams, Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Howie Kendrick, Michael Taylor

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Atlanta NY Mets
atlantamlb Julio Teheran nymetsmlb Jason Vargas
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-109 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.364 36.9% 13.2% 17.3% 37.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.339 29.8% 7.1% 14.1% 38.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.293 25.2% 4.9% 21.4% 41.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.330 34.2% 8.0% 18.8% 40.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran
julio-teheran-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,900
Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.89 4.49 18.6% 8.9% 40.0% 30.4% 21.1%
2018 6 4.69 4.50 22.8% 12.6% 36.7% 38.3% 14.8%

Teheran has an above-average strikeout rate, but is a risky fantasy option every time he takes the mound. He’s a fly-ball pitcher with hard contact and control issues. For him to deserve consideration in DFS, he needs to be facing a right-handed heavy lineup in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Mets are projected to have six lefties in their lineup, which is more than enough to take me off of Teheran.

Quick Breakdown: Until Teheran can get lefties out, we can only target him against right-handed heavy lineups.

Jason Vargas
jason-vargas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 20 Salary Rank: 15 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.86 4.16 17.7% 7.7% 40.3% 32.7% 17.9%
2018 1 4.83 22.09 21.7% 13.0% 26.7% 53.3% 0.0%

Vargas is making his second start of the season. He’s been a decent fantasy option over the years, but is coming off of a subpar 2017 campaign. In 32 starts last season, he posted a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18%. At this point, we should be scared to target pitchers against this Braves’ offense. With Ronald Acuna playing well, they now have good power from both sides of the plate.

Quick Breakdown: The pitching options have been ugly so far, but it will get better.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The fact that we have a total of 9.0 runs in this ballpark is all we need to know to fade the two starting pitchers. The Braves draw a decent matchup against Jason Vargas, who has allowed a .330+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Kurt Suzuki all have good number against southpaws, but don’t forget about Ronald Acuna.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.391 0.344 0.355 36.2% 8.3% 9.5% 42.6% 2B $4,400 2B $5,000 2B $10,100
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.308 0.408 0.250 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 CF $8,000
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.396 0.518 0.267 36.0% 9.8% 21.4% 37.7% 1B $4,400 1B $5,400 1B $11,000
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.318 0.410 0.126 28.9% 8.8% 17.0% 50.7% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 RF $7,200
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.414 0.355 0.368 40.3% 7.8% 7.8% 27.4% C $2,700 C $3,900 C $7,700
6 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.366 0.294 0.293 33.9% 5.1% 20.3% 40.7% 3B $2,100 3B/SS $2,700 SS $5,600
7 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.231 0.184 0.133 18.2% 6.3% 25.0% 63.6% 3B $2,000 3B/SS $2,200 SS $3,900
8 Julio Teheran RIGHT 0.165 0.209 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 33.3% P $6,400 P $6,900 P $13,900
9 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.272 0.321 0.064 17.2% 8.4% 12.1% 61.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,000

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman (GPP), Kurt Suzuki (DK)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash), Kurt Suzuki (FD), Johan Camargo

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

The Mets have an easy matchup to break down. Basically, play the left-handed hitters and avoid the right-handed hitters. Julio Teheran has some of the biggest splits by handedness of any pitcher in baseball. He’s allowed a .364 xwOBA, a 37% hard contact rate, and a 13% walk rate to lefties. Meanwhile, he’s held righties to a .293 xwOBA, a 25% strikeout rate, and a 5% walk rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.352 0.386 0.182 37.2% 9.7% 16.0% 40.2% 2B $3,900 2B $3,900 SS $7,800
2 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.390 0.355 0.262 39.2% 15.7% 21.8% 37.5% OF $3,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,400
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.338 0.305 0.223 39.3% 6.6% 22.1% 33.9% OF $4,200 OF $4,200 LF $8,200
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.391 0.267 0.258 39.9% 10.3% 20.6% 32.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 RF $7,300
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.355 0.333 0.182 31.7% 15.2% 21.8% 37.6% 3B $3,700 3B $3,900 3B $7,700
6 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.351 0.412 0.147 37.6% 8.1% 16.5% 36.1% 1B $2,600 1B $3,200 1B $6,500
7 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.348 0.409 0.135 33.3% 12.2% 25.9% 48.3% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $4,900
8 Jason Vargas LEFT 0.049 0.693 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,500 P $5,000 P $10,000
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.251 0.329 0.101 25.8% 2.5% 29.3% 50.0% SS $2,000 SS $2,800 SS $5,700

Elite Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Lobaton

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto Cleveland
torontomlb Jaime Garcia clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-200 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.280 30.3% 4.6% 25.6% 56.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.297 0.307 31.3% 6.1% 26.8% 44.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.346 32.8% 11.1% 18.3% 52.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.281 26.3% 5.2% 27.8% 44.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jaime Garcia
jaime-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 14 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 10 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.54 4.41 19.2% 9.5% 54.8% 30.5% 20.7%
2018 5 4.16 5.40 24.4% 10.4% 42.3% 43.8% 11.0%

Garcia had a nice start to the year, but has cooled off since. He’s one of the streakiest pitchers in baseball, so when he starts trending in the wrong direction, we want to hop off before the masses. He’s an easy fade today against the Indians, who have a number of right-handed power hitters in their lineup. Garcia comes into the game as a large underdog and run support may be limited with Carlos Carrasco pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Garcia in all formats.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $12,100 Salary: $23,000
Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4%
2018 6 3.78 3.08 21.9% 4.8% 40.0% 25.5% 15.1%

Carrasco has seen a significant dip in his strikeout rate this season. While it’s still above the major league average, it is 7% lower than last season. There hasn’t been a major change in his velocity or pitch selection, so perhaps it’s just due to the small sample size. He is still generating a lot of swings and misses, so for now, I’m not overly concerned. We do have his wonky home splits to worry about, though. In each of the last four seasons, he has fared much better on the road than he has at home.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is the safest pitching option of the early slate, but he’s far from a sure thing.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays are a hit or miss offense on the road. More often than not, they are a miss, especially when facing a pitcher as talented as Carlos Carrasco. In addition to have an above-average strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA over the last two seasons. Even with Josh Donaldson expected back, the Blue Jays are a fade in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.353 0.397 0.254 35.3% 15.0% 23.2% 31.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 CF $7,200
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.429 0.508 0.406 38.0% 8.2% 27.3% 33.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 CF $9,000
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.386 0.256 35.2% 15.7% 22.6% 42.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,700 3B $9,100
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.401 0.364 0.261 39.9% 11.8% 22.6% 34.0% 1B $3,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
5 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.322 0.382 0.199 30.8% 8.0% 13.5% 38.4% 3B $3,700 3B $3,500 2B $6,900
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.311 0.404 0.140 27.1% 5.0% 16.0% 44.5% OF $3,700 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.343 0.343 0.182 29.5% 13.4% 21.9% 52.1% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.410 0.370 0.167 31.3% 0.0% 11.1% 37.5% OF $2,300 2B/SS $3,300 LF $6,700
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.288 0.260 0.170 26.1% 3.0% 13.4% 46.1% SS $2,300 SS $2,800 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians have one of the highest implied run totals in the early slate, but I’m not sure a full stack is warranted. They have quite a few lefties in their lineup and since the start of last season, Jaime Garcia has held left-handed hitters to a .280 xwOBA and a 56% ground ball rate. The righties are firmly in play though, as Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion all boast a .370+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.372 0.355 0.211 42.0% 8.4% 13.3% 38.8% SS $4,400 SS $5,100 SS $9,700
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.306 0.304 0.136 29.4% 9.4% 19.9% 41.9% 2B $3,700 2B $3,600 2B $7,500
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.372 0.449 0.240 37.7% 6.3% 10.4% 39.8% 3B $4,600 3B $4,800 IF/OF $8,600
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.309 0.424 0.077 25.2% 3.9% 11.8% 49.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 LF $8,500
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.390 0.339 0.191 35.8% 18.3% 22.6% 41.9% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 1B $9,000
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.345 0.416 0.248 36.7% 7.0% 22.6% 39.2% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.330 0.395 0.144 23.9% 9.3% 20.5% 41.7% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 LF $4,900
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.340 0.097 0.237 43.4% 12.4% 28.1% 50.0% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.286 0.314 0.109 24.6% 8.0% 18.7% 44.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,600 CF $4,700

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Houston
nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka houstonmlb Lance McCullers
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-125 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.314 31.3% 5.0% 26.3% 53.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.282 27.4% 7.9% 29.0% 58.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.320 32.8% 5.8% 25.5% 44.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.299 30.3% 8.1% 25.4% 64.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 4 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 3.52 4.74 25.8% 5.5% 49.2% 31.4% 19.5%
2018 6 3.41 4.37 26.1% 5.6% 43.0% 35.8% 23.2%

We have two of the best offenses in baseball, yet this series has been all about the pitching. We saw dominant performances from Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander in the first two games and then another one from Luis Severino last night. Tanaka will look to continue the trend. Once again, his SIERA is significantly lower thanks to a high HR/FB rate. At this point, maybe we shouldn’t expect Tanaka to regress to the league average when it comes to home runs because it has been a problem for him for years. He has the talent to dominate in any matchup, but he’s a tough sell on the road against the Astros. They hit a lot of home runs and strikeout at a very low rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I’m a Tanaka homer (pun intended), but he’s an easy pitcher to avoid today.

Lance McCullers
lance-mccullers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,900
Salary Rank: 3 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20 Salary Rank: 4 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 22 3.41 4.25 25.8% 7.8% 61.3% 28.0% 20.7%
2018 6 2.86 3.71 31.7% 8.6% 61.7% 33.3% 21.0%

McCullers does two things very well – he strikes batters out (32%) and he keeps the ball on the ground (62%). I absolutely love pitchers with this skillset, because it gives them two ways to get out of jams. The Yankees have some big right-handed hitters in their lineup, but that’s not a huge concern for McCullers, who has a 64% ground ball rate and a 25% strikeout rate against righties over the last two seasons. He’s the preferred target in this game and one of the top pitching options on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Taking a pitcher against the Yankees makes me a little nauseous, but I’m on McCullers today.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have arguably the worst matchup of the slate. Many would argue that Carlos Carrasco is better than Lance McCullers, but the numbers suggest otherwise. In addition to his elite strikeout rate and elite ground ball rate, McCullers has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA over the last two seasons. The bad McCullers will show up every now and then, but he’s incredibly tough to hit when he’s locked in.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.330 0.265 0.174 31.4% 11.6% 18.5% 44.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 LF $6,500
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.443 0.414 0.349 44.4% 16.6% 30.2% 35.2% OF $4,600 OF $5,200 RF $9,900
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.324 0.436 0.264 28.6% 6.6% 11.6% 34.5% SS $4,300 SS $4,800 SS $9,900
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.370 0.345 0.295 38.0% 10.4% 27.5% 46.3% OF $4,300 OF $4,800 RF $9,000
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.383 0.451 0.246 36.6% 6.6% 22.6% 42.3% C $4,400 C $4,900 C $9,400
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.353 0.388 0.217 32.2% 17.4% 20.2% 42.2% OF $3,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,300
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.411 0.465 0.338 46.2% 1.5% 20.9% 42.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,500 3B $6,300
8 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.320 0.482 0.265 45.7% 5.5% 45.2% 34.3% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.320 0.320 0.136 36.8% 8.3% 12.5% 36.8% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,300 SS $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

The Astros draw a boom or bust matchup against Masahiro Tanaka. While he has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters throughout his career, he continues to struggle with home runs. He has given up 49 home runs since the beginning of last season, which is one of the highest marks in baseball. I won’t be stacking the Astros, but we can try to catch their home run upside with one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.371 0.455 0.223 36.8% 8.7% 18.8% 49.6% OF $4,400 OF $4,900 RF $9,000
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.366 0.360 0.183 28.9% 8.6% 12.5% 46.2% 2B $4,300 2B $5,100 2B $10,100
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.384 0.399 0.235 36.1% 11.0% 21.9% 46.1% SS $4,200 SS $4,900 SS $9,300
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.332 0.321 0.198 33.4% 3.1% 10.5% 45.4% 1B $2,900 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
5 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.347 0.267 0.193 32.6% 9.5% 12.8% 33.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 RF $7,200
6 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.348 0.361 0.165 33.6% 9.9% 15.8% 40.2% 3B $3,600 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.340 0.272 0.218 34.3% 10.9% 20.0% 43.2% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,500
8 Brian McCann LEFT 0.333 0.338 0.189 32.0% 10.1% 15.8% 36.0% C $2,400 C $3,400 C $6,500
9 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.313 0.248 0.165 32.1% 6.6% 18.9% 34.4% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,400

Elite Plays – George Springer, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Detroit Kansas City
detroitmlb Mike Fiers kansascitymlb Eric Skoglund
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -110 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.346 30.4% 10.2% 19.9% 42.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.378 38.9% 7.1% 14.3% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.354 0.345 30.7% 7.0% 21.9% 44.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.389 0.375 42.0% 10.2% 18.5% 39.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: 13 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.52 5.22 21.8% 9.2% 42.9% 30.1% 20.1%
2018 4 4.44 3.91 15.2% 4.0% 47.4% 32.9% 16.5%

This game features two of the most attackable pitchers in the early slate, but it’s being played in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The fact that we have a total of 9.5 runs in this ballpark tells us everything we need to know about these pitchers. Fiers has seen a huge dip in his strikeout rate this season and is one of those pitchers that we want to steer clear of when in bad form.

Quick Breakdown: Even against the Royals, Fiers is an easy fade in all formats.

Eric Skoglund
eric-skoglund-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 17 of 20 Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank: 15 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.83 9.50 15.1% 12.9% 36.4% 34.3% 13.4%
2018 4 4.13 6.23 20.7% 6.5% 42.9% 49.2% 14.3%

Skoglund has been better than last season, but it didn’t take a whole lot to improve on a 5.83 SIERA and a 13% walk rate. His velocity is up a tick this season and he’s generating more swings and misses, but I do not expect him to sustain a 21% strikeout rate. The Tigers are thought of as a high-strikeout offense, but six of their projected starters have a strikeout rate under 16% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Skoglund doesn’t have the strikeout upside needed to make up for the runs that he’ll likely give up.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks, but they draw a favorable matchup against Eric Skoglund. Since the beginning of last season, he has allowed a .370+ xwOBA and a 39%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. I’m never a fan of stacking the Tigers on the road, but there are some intriguing plays here. Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, and James McCann all boast a .415+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.305 0.462 0.175 21.2% 4.5% 15.9% 41.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.272 0.412 0.114 34.5% 8.2% 30.6% 51.7% 3B $3,400 3B $4,100 3B $8,300
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.416 0.473 0.167 47.1% 15.6% 21.5% 37.6% 1B $3,900 1B $4,600 1B $9,400
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.421 0.385 0.299 45.7% 6.7% 15.2% 41.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,100
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.274 0.348 0.065 31.5% 6.9% 13.8% 53.3% C $2,500 1B $3,100 1B $5,900
6 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.273 0.407 0.140 37.0% 7.0% 40.4% 44.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.456 0.311 0.265 39.4% 9.2% 13.7% 36.4% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,500
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.289 0.301 0.085 27.6% 5.3% 8.8% 42.3% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 SS $5,500
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.271 0.327 0.032 29.8% 5.7% 12.9% 50.9% 2B $2,600 2B $2,700 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City

I hate to admit it, but I’ve fallen for the Royals’ high implied run totals a number of times this season and it has yet to pay off. They have one of the highest totals of the early slate and I can already feel myself getting sucked right back in. Over the last two seasons, Mike FIers has allowed a .345+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Mike Moustakas, Salavador Perez, and Lucas Duda are all viable here and if you really want to make it a stack, Whit Merrifield can be added to the mix as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.317 0.341 0.147 31.0% 4.8% 14.1% 38.4% 2B $3,600 2B $3,800 IF/OF $7,200
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.381 0.459 0.282 35.7% 6.4% 14.9% 31.3% 3B $3,500 3B $4,200 3B $8,700
3 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.347 0.374 0.219 38.8% 3.2% 18.2% 33.7% C $3,300 C $3,800 C $7,700
4 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.378 0.358 0.270 42.1% 13.0% 24.6% 26.7% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 1B $6,700
5 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.291 0.404 0.088 32.0% 14.7% 28.7% 40.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,200
6 Jon Jay LEFT 0.322 0.277 0.087 29.7% 7.5% 18.2% 47.9% OF $2,500 OF $2,500 CF $4,500
7 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.289 0.268 0.068 30.7% 7.5% 21.1% 44.7% 3B $2,200 1B/3B $2,600 3B $5,100
8 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.294 0.347 0.119 33.6% 7.0% 24.6% 42.0% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 LF $5,800
9 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.277 0.391 0.096 27.7% 2.5% 14.9% 41.4% SS $2,500 SS $2,900 SS $5,500

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda, Salvador Perez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious