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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-05 04:42:07

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

The Indians/Tigers game has been postponed and there is a strong probability the Pirates/Reds game will be as well. Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Weather Page for the latest updates before making your lineups.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Pittsburgh Cincinnati
pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova cincinnatimlb Tim Adleman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-105 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 37.6% 3.4% 13.3% 44.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 34.2% 6.4% 21.0% 27.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 30.4% 3.7% 22.0% 60.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 39.5% 6.8% 15.1% 43.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 25 Salary Rank: 6 of 25 Salary Rank: 6 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 5 3.63 1.50 16.5% 0.8% 51.0% 30.3% 16.5%

We have some interesting slates today. FanDuel has a seven game early-only slate, DraftKings has a six game early-only slate, and FantasyDraft has a nine game early-only slate. Nova and the Pirates are included in all three, as they are the first game on the schedule. Nova has shown great command this season (1% walk rate) and has always been a pitcher with an above-average ground ball rate. His biggest struggles come against left-handed bats, but luckily the Reds only have three of them in their lineup. This isn’t a great ballpark for pitchers, but his high ground ball rate should help.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not for or against using Nova in this slate, but will likely have very little exposure myself.

Tim Adleman
tim-adleman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 20 of 25 Salary Rank: 22 of 25 Salary Rank: 22 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 4.87 4.00 16.4% 7.0% 36.4% 35.4% 14.0%
2017 2 3.49 4.70 24.2% 4.8% 37.2% 46.5% 4.7%

Adleman is a 29-year old pitcher with only 15 major league starts under his belt. He didn’t have a high strikeout rate in the minors and he only struck out 13% of the batters that he faced a year ago. He is a fly-ball pitcher that allows a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He should be avoided today at home against the Pirates.

Quick Breakdown: Pitching in this slate is thin, but not thin enough to play Adleman.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates see a favorable ballpark shift in Cincinnati and they have taken full advantage of it in this series, scoring 17 runs in the first three games. Tim Adleman is a fly-ball pitcher that has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters, allowing a .330+ wOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate. The one through five batters in this Pirates’ lineup are all in play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.295 0.100 27.1% 3.6% 14.3% 44.3% 3B $3,500 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,600
2 John Jaso LEFT 0.338 0.151 30.2% 10.5% 17.0% 49.1% 1B $2,500 1B/OF $3,200 1B $6,400
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.320 0.163 35.1% 9.6% 21.4% 36.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.327 0.190 35.3% 9.3% 17.1% 39.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.352 0.152 32.9% 14.4% 14.9% 48.9% 1B $2,800 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
6 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.213 0.100 25.0% 0.0% 20.0% 37.5% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,700
7 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.258 0.109 25.0% 4.2% 20.8% 50.0% 2B $2,300 2B $3,700 SS $7,200
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.289 0.096 24.8% 8.0% 14.2% 49.8% SS $2,600 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.091 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 64.7% 33.3% P $8,600 P $8,700 P $16,800

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, John Jaso, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell or Jose Osuna

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The book on Ivan Nova is simple – avoid the right-handed hitters and fire away with the left-handed hitters. Since the start of last season, he has a 22% strikeout rate with a 60% ground ball rate against righties. In that same stretch, he has allowed a .342 wOBA with a 38% hard contact rate and only a 13% strikeout rate against lefties. Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Scott Schebler are the top targets here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.081 18.8% 8.8% 19.9% 47.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.328 0.162 30.6% 8.5% 16.9% 39.3% SS $3,000 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.423 0.259 40.4% 17.3% 15.1% 38.3% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.332 0.260 37.6% 6.0% 26.5% 33.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.316 0.158 35.2% 7.9% 23.1% 39.7% 3B $3,300 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.342 0.207 33.9% 7.5% 22.5% 50.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.307 0.063 18.5% 2.1% 12.6% 44.4% 2B $2,500 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.209 0.083 24.3% 3.9% 21.6% 43.2% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Tim Adleman RIGHT 0.078 0.063 0.0% 0.0% 42.1% 57.1% P $6,600 P $5,700 P $11,400

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Arizona at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Arizona Washington
arizonamlb Braden Shipley washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-260 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.373 35.3% 8.0% 14.3% 38.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 29.0% 9.0% 24.9% 31.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.387 39.8% 10.7% 13.7% 48.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.209 28.0% 3.3% 38.5% 34.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Braden Shipley
braden-shipley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: $4,000 Salary: $7,800
Salary Rank: of 25 Salary Rank: 26 of 25 Salary Rank: 26 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 5.20 5.27 14.1% 9.2% 42.8% 37.2% 11.1%

Shipley is a name that may sound familiar. He made 11 starts with the Diamondbacks last season, posting a 5.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 9%. In the last two years, he didn’t post a strikeout rate above 18% at any level (Double-A, Triple-A, or in the majors). He is a massive underdog on the road against the Nationals and should be avoided in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: With all of the power in the Nationals’ lineup, it could be a tough day for Shipley.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,400 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $24,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 25 Salary Rank: 1 of 25 Salary Rank: 1 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 5 3.18 2.94 30.3% 6.8% 31.3% 18.3% 22.0%

Scherzer struggled with the Mets in his last start, but that’s becoming a common theme these days. He still struck out seven batters and still has an elite SIERA (3.18) and an elite strikeout rate (30%) on the season. Hopefully someone has already set the table, because Scherzer is going to feast on a Diamondbacks’ lineup that has eight batters (including the pitcher) with at least a 20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Scherzer may give up a few too many home runs, but it’s not a concern when he racks up seven or more strikeouts in every start.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is the premier play on the schedule today. Force him into your lineups.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. Max Scherzer has a massive 39% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters, so if you absolutely have to target a hitter here, I would look to the left-handed bats of David Peralta and Jake Lamb. However, there is no need to look at the Diamondbacks here, especially if you are targeting Scherzer.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.345 0.113 35.6% 7.8% 16.5% 42.5% OF $4,100 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 David Peralta LEFT 0.344 0.179 39.3% 5.9% 20.4% 49.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.374 0.187 36.8% 14.5% 20.9% 47.1% 1B $4,500 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.376 0.279 41.2% 9.9% 25.9% 43.2% 3B $4,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.322 0.224 39.1% 4.5% 24.1% 47.2% OF $3,600 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
6 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.309 0.141 31.4% 4.3% 20.4% 49.3% SS $3,400 OF/SS $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
7 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.344 0.158 31.2% 7.1% 21.0% 49.5% 2B $3,200 2B $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.239 0.111 34.0% 8.7% 27.0% 37.7% C $2,200 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Braden Shipley RIGHT 0.176 0.059 21.4% 0.0% 22.2% 69.2% P $4,000 P $7,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

We don’t know a ton about Braden Shipley, but he has a below-average ground ball rate and a low strikeout rate. In his limited action in the majors last season, he allowed a .370+ wOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Nationals have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate and we can stack their hitters in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.411 0.260 34.4% 5.0% 18.2% 43.2% SS $4,300 SS $5,100 IF/OF $10,000
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.298 0.133 31.9% 11.0% 24.8% 42.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.379 0.231 35.5% 19.2% 15.6% 39.3% OF $5,100 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.317 0.185 35.1% 5.1% 24.0% 45.3% 1B $4,000 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.416 0.255 39.0% 6.0% 9.5% 35.5% 2B $4,300 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.333 0.173 34.6% 8.7% 18.7% 37.9% 3B $3,100 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.254 0.107 31.9% 5.5% 29.8% 43.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.321 0.180 32.5% 7.3% 17.4% 37.3% C $3,100 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.176 0.015 22.2% 2.4% 32.5% 75.6% P $11,400 P $12,600 P $24,600

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Danny Salazar detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-111 7.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 33.5% 10.5% 29.2% 41.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 30.2% 6.9% 18.9% 48.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 31.0% 11.2% 28.1% 48.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 31.7% 6.2% 22.4% 48.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Salazar
danny-salazar-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 25 Salary Rank: 2 of 25 Salary Rank: 2 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.86 3.87 27.6% 10.8% 47.8% 33.8% 15.1%
2017 5 3.26 4.34 33.3% 11.1% 31.8% 23.5% 16.2%

We’ve seen mixed results from the Indians’ starters so far in this series. Corey Kluber really struggled, while Carlos Carrasco was able to tame the Tigers last night. Carrasco is yet another hard-throwing righty that the Indians will throw at Detroit. He doesn’t have the best command in the world (11% walk rate), but he does own an elite strikeout rate (33%). This is a boom or bust matchup that I don’t particularly want to target when it comes to cash games. The strikeout upside is there for Carrasco, but so is the risk.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is certainly viable in tournaments, but I’m looking to pay up for Scherzer in cash games.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 3 of 25 Salary Rank: 7 of 25 Salary Rank: 6 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.03 3.06 20.4% 6.5% 49.1% 30.4% 19.2%
2017 5 4.01 3.19 21.0% 7.3% 43.0% 33.7% 14.0%

Fulmer struggled to get going in his last start against the White Sox. Unfortunately, the sledding is only going to get tougher today against the Indians, who are ranked fifth in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Cleveland is a patient offense that takes a lot of walks. They also hit for power against righties and strikeout at a very low rate.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t like to target right-handed pitchers against the Indians and I won’t be making an exception for Fulmer.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

This may be a spot where we avoid the pitcher (Michael Fulmer) and the offense (Indians). I certainly want no part of Fulmer in this matchup, but at the same time, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, and Michael Brantley aren’t bad plays, but they are a bit overpriced in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.382 0.266 38.2% 15.6% 15.8% 36.7% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,800
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.360 0.171 28.0% 9.5% 12.1% 47.3% SS $4,000 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.336 0.178 42.1% 7.1% 14.3% 43.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.364 0.258 38.2% 10.9% 21.3% 37.7% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.367 0.169 25.2% 7.9% 9.7% 38.3% 3B $4,000 2B/3B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.343 0.190 38.6% 9.8% 20.0% 36.7% 2B $2,800 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.336 0.168 27.6% 5.1% 16.2% 35.1% OF $3,300 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,600
8 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.311 0.129 33.3% 7.3% 23.0% 45.9% OF $2,800 OF $2,900 RF $5,600
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.200 0.138 29.1% 3.8% 25.3% 40.0% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

As strange as it sounds, I don’t mind a Tigers’ stack in the early-only slate. I won’t be touching any of their hitters in cash games, but Danny Salazar has a high walk rate and a fairly high hard contact rate. Detroit has also had some success against him in the past. I wouldn’t go overboard and play a Tigers’ stack in every lineup, but it will be extremely low owned and when you include Tyler Collins, it’s a fairly cheap offense to stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.340 0.174 34.5% 7.3% 16.5% 33.8% 2B $3,500 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.373 0.209 41.0% 7.5% 24.8% 32.0% 3B $3,600 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.398 0.260 40.9% 10.0% 16.6% 40.7% 1B $4,300 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.340 0.179 41.7% 8.1% 14.6% 38.1% C $3,100 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.340 0.231 39.5% 9.1% 29.1% 40.1% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
6 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.341 0.163 36.6% 8.6% 24.4% 33.1% OF $2,700 OF $2,500 CF $4,800
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.368 0.200 41.8% 17.7% 34.9% 41.8% C $3,100 1B/C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.341 0.185 63.6% 3.6% 17.9% 59.1% OF $2,400 OF $2,300 LF $4,400
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.274 0.064 15.8% 5.2% 11.1% 55.9% SS $2,300 SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, Tyler Collins

Stackability – ORANGE (Cash) / YELLOW (GPP)

Oakland at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Oakland Minnesota
oaklandmlb Jharel Cotton minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-113 9.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.250 22.2% 9.9% 16.8% 38.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.385 31.7% 8.7% 14.5% 48.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 34.3% 4.5% 18.7% 38.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 31.6% 8.4% 16.2% 48.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jharel Cotton
jharel-cotton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 16 of 25 Salary Rank: 10 of 25 Salary Rank: 12 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.02 2.15 20.5% 3.6% 37.6% 28.2% 22.4%
2017 5 5.13 5.00 15.5% 9.8% 39.1% 30.3% 22.5%

Cotton has not had the start to the season that many were expecting. Through five outings, he has a 5.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. This is a pitcher that had a 25%+ strikeout rate in each of his last two seasons at the Triple-A level. He is an easy fade at DFS at this point, but we should keep our eye on him moving forward. If he continues to struggle, the A’s may send him back down to the minors to get his confidence back.

Quick Breakdown: Cotton is in bad form and is facing a red-hot Twins’ offense on the road.

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 25 Salary Rank: 25 of 25 Salary Rank: 25 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.73 5.07 15.9% 8.4% 48.8% 31.0% 18.6%
2017 5 5.28 8.06 12.2% 9.4% 47.6% 35.4% 17.1%

Gibson is basically an auto-fade in DFS. It doesn’t really matter which team he is facing or which ballpark he is pitching in. He is a low strikeout pitcher with a fairly high walk rate. He struggles with hitters from both sides of the plate and he gives up a lot of hard contact. He is listed as a small favorite today against the A’s, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot when the over/under is set at 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Even in a decent matchup against the A’s, Gibson should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s are a great source of value in the early slate. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Target Field and they draw an exploitable matchup against Kyle Gibson, who has allowed a .339+ wOBA and a 31%+ hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate. The lefties get a slight edge in this matchup, but the right-handed bats are also in play. The A’s should be able to negate Gibson’s high ground ball rate because they have the highest fly ball rate of any team in baseball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.306 0.145 26.3% 5.8% 20.1% 47.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.349 0.213 37.3% 18.2% 22.3% 41.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,500 RF $4,800
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.294 0.089 31.8% 7.6% 17.4% 38.6% 2B $2,300 2B $2,900 2B $5,600
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.356 0.295 41.5% 7.4% 28.2% 43.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.317 0.132 34.1% 8.9% 15.2% 40.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.325 0.181 29.4% 5.2% 23.6% 40.4% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,900
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.313 0.161 26.2% 6.9% 14.6% 29.9% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.298 0.151 32.0% 5.5% 18.7% 44.5% 3B $2,500 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.301 0.231 33.3% 7.4% 33.1% 36.6% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $2,400 3B $4,800

Elite Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Ryon Healy, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins are a very intriguing offense against Jharel Cotton, who currently has a 15% strikeout rate and a 39% hard contact rate. Minnesota has been red-hot at the plate in this series and Vegas is expecting that to continue today against Cotton. The one through six hitters in this lineup are all viable options and a Twins’ stack is firmly in play for both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.358 0.254 33.4% 8.8% 19.3% 39.4% 2B $4,100 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
2 Max Kepler LEFT 0.346 0.212 34.6% 10.9% 18.3% 44.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.356 0.248 43.0% 12.0% 36.3% 32.8% 3B $3,900 3B $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
4 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.334 0.131 32.9% 14.3% 14.1% 47.4% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.331 0.118 29.8% 16.7% 25.2% 39.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
6 Jason Castro LEFT 0.324 0.198 37.0% 13.0% 32.5% 42.4% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,400
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.303 0.106 23.5% 8.3% 13.5% 35.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
8 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.322 0.182 33.1% 3.3% 23.8% 45.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.291 0.184 24.1% 6.4% 36.2% 36.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,600

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Robbie Grossman, Jason Castro

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Texas Houston
texasmlb A.J. Griffin houstonmlb Joe Musgrove
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-154 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.400 44.2% 9.2% 20.3% 27.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 32.5% 7.6% 19.5% 46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 34.3% 8.4% 22.8% 30.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 32.3% 5.1% 20.0% 40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

A.J. Griffin
a-j-griffin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 25 Salary Rank: 17 of 25 Salary Rank: 17 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 23 4.63 5.07 21.0% 9.0% 29.1% 38.1% 18.1%
2017 3 3.68 4.11 26.7% 6.7% 25.6% 48.7% 20.5%

Griffin is a right-handed pitcher with one of the highest hard contact rates in baseball. He has an above-average strikeout rate, but I’m not sure that it is sustainable in the long run. He has below-average velocity and his swinging strike rate has never been above 10% in his career. Even though the Astros’ lineup features a lot of right-handed hitters, there is more risk than potential reward with Griffin in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog on the road against a potent offense, Griffin is an easy fade.

Joe Musgrove
joseph-musgrove-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 25 Salary Rank: 13 of 25 Salary Rank: 12 of 25
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 3.98 4.06 21.5% 6.3% 43.4% 34.6% 18.1%
2017 5 4.53 4.88 16.1% 5.9% 42.7% 27.8% 17.8%

Musgrove posted his first quality start of the season in his last time out, striking out six batters in six innings against the A’s. He rarely pitches deep into games and the strikeout rate is down considerably from where it was season ago. If you read yesterday’s Grind Down, then you know that I was all over Charlie Morton against the Rangers. It had more to do with Morton than it did the Rangers, as they still have a potent offense. I don’t have a ton of interest for Musgrove here, even though he is listed as a sizable favorite at home.

Quick Breakdown: The Rangers have a lot of firepower in their lineup and we never quite know which Musgrove is going to show up.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers have six projected starters in their lineup with at least a .179 ISO against right-handed pitching. They draw an exploitable matchup against Joe Musgrove, who has allowed a .329 wOBA and a 32.5% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters (talk about symmetry). Joey Gallo is one of my favorite plays in the slate, as he always sees a boost against low strikeout pitchers. He is absolutely mashing the ball right now and the Rangers moved him to the clean-up spot last night.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.274 0.119 18.2% 8.6% 29.4% 54.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
2 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.332 0.244 34.1% 2.7% 21.8% 39.5% 2B $2,900 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
3 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.317 0.188 31.8% 8.8% 28.1% 41.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
4 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.318 0.281 51.2% 13.5% 46.2% 24.4% 3B $3,500 3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
5 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.353 0.179 32.6% 7.7% 15.5% 40.4% C $2,800 C $3,600 C $7,200
6 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.338 0.144 27.3% 8.0% 12.9% 46.3% SS $3,100 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.340 0.191 29.8% 7.3% 18.5% 45.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
8 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.327 0.233 35.1% 9.7% 30.2% 36.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
9 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.315 0.135 41.9% 12.8% 22.2% 49.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 RF $7,600

Elite Plays – Joey Gallo

Secondary Plays – Rougned Odor, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston

Everyone is going to see the splits of A.J. Griffin and only want to play the left-handed hitters against him. While I prefer the lefties as well, we shouldn’t automatically rule out the likes of George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa. Griffin has a .253 BABIP against righties, which isn’t sustainable, especially with how much hard contact he gives up. The Astros are one of the top offenses on the board. I wouldn’t be too worried about Griffin’s splits against right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.336 0.170 30.4% 10.8% 24.0% 50.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.365 0.165 31.9% 9.0% 11.1% 37.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.391 0.183 32.1% 7.8% 10.0% 43.8% 2B $4,200 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.359 0.190 37.7% 9.9% 22.0% 49.3% SS $3,500 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
5 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.329 0.191 32.2% 5.6% 17.7% 47.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.364 0.161 29.3% 3.8% 10.6% 47.7% 3B $2,700 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.338 0.178 38.2% 11.3% 18.5% 34.0% C $3,100 C $3,400 C $6,800
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.324 0.168 31.2% 7.1% 21.3% 37.1% 3B $2,800 3B/SS $3,900 3B $7,800
9 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.345 0.124 20.9% 7.2% 9.1% 57.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 LF $6,800

Elite Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious