MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 21st

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-08-21 17:37:41

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta								Pittsburgh
			Kevin Gausman							Ivan Nova
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-115							8.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.336	28.6%	1.28	19.3%	43.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.365	0.393	32.8%	1.72	11.2%	41.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.336	0.351	35.6%	1.47	18.8%	49.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.323	34.1%	1.19	21.2%	49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			9 of 29	Salary Rank:			13 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	34	4.41	4.68	21.9%	8.7%	42.7%	32.3%	18.2%	95.0	10.9%
	2018	24	4.17	4.22	19.0%	5.9%	47.2%	32.5%	18.4%	93.7	10.8%
	L14	2	3.81	1.93	18.9%	3.8%	48.8%	36.6%	17.1%	93.8	7.8%

Hello Grinders. I’m covering for Noto today on what’s a really interesting slate. We have a Coor’s Field game, a highly-touted prospect making his major league debut and not much high-end pitching. If you have any questions or thoughts, feel free to drop me a comment below or Tweet at me. Let’s dive in.

Gausman gets to face the Braves after having his previous start pushed back a day. Gausman has now seen his K% decline for the third year in a row (it’s gone from 23% to 21.9% to 19% this season) and he has to face a Pirates team third to last in K% against right-handed pitching. Gausman has actually shown some reverse-splits throughout his career, meaning right-handed batters have hit him better. In a way, his reverse-splits may play in his favor if the Pirates roll out their normal lineup that has potentially five left-handed batters in the lineup (Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Colin Moran and Adam Frazier). The one bat that does scare me is Starling Marte if he returns from his Monday benching. I wouldn’t use Gausman on one-pitcher sites because I don’t think he has major upside in this matchup, but I can see him being viable as an SP2.

Quick Breakdown: This isn’t a great strikeout matchup for Gausman but if the Pirates have a lefty-heavy lineup, I can see Gausman being an option for your SP2 spot.

Ivan Nova
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			9 of 29	Salary Rank:			21 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	31	4.45	4.14	16.7%	4.6%	45.7%	34.8%	16.6%	92.8	8.4%
	2018	23	4.44	4.26	16.3%	4.8%	45.2%	33.4%	17.4%	93.0	8.7%
	L14	2	4.98	2.13	12.0%	4.0%	45.2%	26.2%	19.1%	93.0	8.1%

For the second season in a row, Nova has seen a sub-17% K% and he now faces a Braves team in the bottom third of the league in K% righties. Nova hasn’t had a game where he’s struck out more than three batters since July 9th. He makes his living generating groundballs at a 45% clip and with his amazing control (4.8% BB%). I generally view Nova viable only on smaller slates or where the opponent offers some upside, and I don’t see this as a matchup with huge upside. This is a pass for me.

Quick Breakdown: Nova has great control and can limit the damage against him with his ability to generate groundballs, but this isn’t a slate where I feel I need to roll the dice on him so he’s not on my radar.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While Nova isn’t someone I’m planning to roster, I don’t know how much exposure I’ll have to the Braves either. Nova has made 23 starts this season, and yet he’s only allowed more than four earned runs in just three outings. In other words, Nova rarely gets blown up. Add in the fact this isn’t a great hitter’s ballpark and this makes the Braves less attractive to me. You could certainly target some one-offs here though as Nova struggles against lefties. In fact, 12 of his 21 home runs this season have been by left-handed batters. This makes Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies somewhat attractive, while Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte and Johan Camargo are GPP-dart throws if you want to chase their upside in tournaments. If you decide to roll out the stack, I would focus on the lefties and throw in Ronald Acuna, who is the best hitter since sliced bread.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Stackability – RED / ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Because Gausman has shown reverse-splits tendecies, I would actually prefer the right-handed batters. Unfortunately, the Pirates don’t have many good ones outside of Starling Marte, who would be my favorite Pirates batter. I can also see Elias Diaz as an option for your catcher position too if he hits near the middle of the order. If the Pirates give David Freese a start over the left-handed Colin Moran, he’s also a punt option. But for now, it looks like most projected lineups expect Moran to draw the start so I won’t list his as a secondary option below.

I don’t know what’s going on with Corey Dickerson, but he hasn’t had a home run in the month of August. He has picked things up recently with base hits but he hasn’t shown the power he showed earlier in the season. I wonder if the hamstring strain from late July is still bothering him or if he’s just changing his approach to the plate as the team’s lead-off hitter. His K% is down from 24.2% in 2017 to just 14.1% this season, so he could be trading power for contact as an effort to set the table for his teammates.

I’m listing the Stackability below as Red. The Pirates are going to be something like 5% owned on this slate so I don’t think a stack is the craziest idea in a large-field tournament if you want a 5%-owned stack, but I don’t think it’s the smartest play.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Elias Diaz, Starling Marte

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Philadelphia								Washington
			Vince Velasquez							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-138							8.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.317	34.3%	1.51	24.3%	39.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.315	24.8%	1.11	22.4%	37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.286	30.9%	0.45	28.4%	39.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.303	0.342	30.2%	0.93	17.3%	46.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			17 of 29	Salary Rank:			15 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	15	4.73	5.13	21.6%	10.8%	42.5%	38.1%	15.2%	93.9	9.1%
	2018	23	3.94	4.13	26.3%	9.7%	39.7%	32.7%	16.7%	93.9	11.6%
	L14	2	6.71	9.95	11.8%	17.7%	50.0%	45.5%	18.2%	93.1	9.2%

After a solid month of July, Vincent Velasquez has taken a step back over his last two games. In July, Velasquez allowed just two earned runs over 19 innings. In his last two games, however, he’s been blasted for seven earned runs in just 6.1 innings. Granted, those games were against the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox, but the more concerning aspect for me is that Coach Gabe Kapler pulled the plug on him as soon as he ran into trouble as opposed to letting him work out of the jams. He threw just 79 pitches and 63 pitches against the Diamondbacks and Red Sox, respectively, which capped his upside. The Nationals have the fourth lowest K% against righties at just 19.9%, so it’s fair to question to strikeout upside in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Given his recent form, the matchup and his manager being willing to remove him at the first sign of trouble, I’m viewing Velasquez more as a tournament-only option.

Tanner Roark
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			5 of 29	Salary Rank:			8 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%	92.2	10.1%
	2018	24	4.39	4.13	19.8%	7.6%	42.0%	27.7%	18.4%	91.4	8.6%
	L14	2	5.18	3.29	13.8%	6.9%	34.9%	33.3%	15.6%	91.8	6.1%

After a rough stretch where the Nationals lost seven consecutive starts, Tanner Roark has turned things around nicely. The Nationals have won his last five starts where he’s pitched 35.2 innings, allowing just seven earned runs over those games. Roark has just a 19.8 K% on the season, which isn’t anything special, but his hard contact rate is at a low 27.7% and this matchup against the Phillies is a decent one on paper. While Roark isn’t a strikeout artist, the Phillies boast the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at 25.4%. I’ll admit I’m not the biggest fan of Roark for DFS purposes, but given the nature of the slate, I can see him being viable given his recent form and the opponent.

Quick Breakdown: Roark has turned things around recently and given the strikeout tendencies of the Phillies, I can see him being an option in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Although Roark has limited hard contact this season, he is allowing roughly one home run per nine innings. His splits have generally been worse against left-handed batters, so that would be my priority. I would have mild interest in whoever starts at first base since they would hold a platoon advantage over Roark, whether that be Carlos Santana or backup Justin Bour. Other lefty targets would include Asdrubal Cabrera and Odubel Herrera, who is 15-for-36 lifetime against Roark. Even though he’s not a lefty, Rhys Hoskins is firmly in-play as well against Roark given the power he’s shown against right-handed pitching. I’m not enthusiastic about stacking the Phillies against Roark, but I don’t mind taking shots here with some one-offs or a smaller mini-stack if you’re hunting for a home run.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana or Justin Bour (whichever starts at first base)

Stackability – RED / ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Velasquez isn’t someone I generally want to pick on or load up against, but he can be prone to getting hit by lefties. The Nationals happen to have a lot of left-handed power too. On the season, Velasquez is allowing a .252 average and .795 OPS to lefties, so those would be my priority on the Nationals. 10 of his 13 home runs allowed have also been by lefties. Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are my main targets, with Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy and Matt Adams my secondary targets. If you’re rolling out a full stack, it makes some sense to get exposure to Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner as well. Velasquez has limited hard contact for the most part this season so again, I don’t love trying to pick on him, but if you’re rolling out 20 teams I don’t mind throwing in a Nationals stack in case Velasquez struggles for the third start in a row.

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Baltimore								Toronto
			Dylan Bundy							Sam Gaviglio
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-149							9.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.385	0.398	35.4%	1.75	19.4%	30.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.361	0.390	39.9%	1.42	14.5%	42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	0.294	33.9%	2.31	29.1%	37.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.311	32.4%	1.63	26.7%	50.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			19 of 29	Salary Rank:			10 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	28	4.45	4.24	21.8%	7.3%	32.8%	36.5%	17.6%	92.2	11.4%
	2018	23	3.98	4.99	24.2%	7.2%	34.0%	34.7%	15.7%	91.6	12.6%
	L14	2	5.56	12.19	14.8%	7.4%	24.4%	31.7%	19.5%	91.5	11.7%

Dylan Bundy is slowly becoming the most frustrating DFS pitcher in the league behind chalk Robbie Ray. He has tantalizing upside as evidenced by his 24.2 K%, but his 2.05 HR/9 ratio is maddening. He’s now allowed a home run in seven straight games and you just never know which Dylan Bundy is going to show up. The Blue Jays have the seventh highest team ISO against right-handed pitching and it’s almost a given he’ll give up a homer or two. This is a spot where I’m siding with the Blue Jays’ bats.

Quick Breakdown: You can feel free to chase the strikeout upside that’s built into Bundy, but his home run issues are too much for me to stomach. I can understand a sprinkle of Bundy in tournaments but this is a spot where I have more interest in the Blue Jays.

Sam Gaviglio
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:			$6,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			13 of 29	Salary Rank:			17 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	13	4.96	4.36	15.7%	8.3%	49.4%	31.5%	15.7%	88.6	7.1%
	2018	17	4.08	5.13	21.3%	7.2%	46.3%	36.0%	16.4%	88.1	9.1%
	L14	2	3.70	5.59	20.9%	2.3%	36.4%	51.5%	9.1%	87.6	10.5%

I expect Gaviglio to gain some traction around the industry simply because of his opponent. The Orioles have the seventh highest K% against right-handed pitching at 23.8% and a team wRC+ of just 92, so I certainly get the appeal. Gaviglio has quietly put up solid strikeout numbers too as he holds a 21.3 K% for the season. I do see him viable in all formats as an SP2 punt, but I would also exercise some caution. He’s allowed a 36% hard hit rate and his HR/FB ratio is at 16.5%, so he can be prone to the longball. Here are also his pitch counts over his last five starts: 88, 74, 89, 99 and 72. In those five starts, he hasn’t gone past 5.2 innings, so he’s not someone that generally goes deep into games. Because of these factors I prefer him as an SP2 in tournaments, but again, I completely get the appeal of just punting him in cash games too and just hoping he can generate enough strikeouts against the Orioles.

Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio’s matchup against the Orioles is enough to make him a viable SP2 option but I prefer using him in tournaments because of his volatile (and recently limited) pitch count.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Orioles have a reputation of being a high-strikeout team (and they are) but they may also be able to take advantage of Gaviglio’s propensity to allow home runs. Gaviglio has allowed 15 home runs in just 87.2 innings, so I don’t mind looking for some power here. Gaviglio’s splits against lefties have been worse, so as much as I don’t want to admit it, I don’t mind Chris Davis as a punt play here. Jonathan Villar is also an option and new lead-off hitter Cedric Mullins has been seeing the ball well lately since his promotion to the top of the lineup. If you want to chase the power of Trey Mancini, Adam Jones or Tim Beckham I wouldn’t fault you, but I would rather use them as part of an Orioles stack as opposed to one-offs.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis, Cedric Mullins, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Blue Jays are 10th in team K% against right-handed pitching so there’s a chance they strike out a few times against Dylan Bundy. Still, this is a spot where I am all for a Blue Jays stack and hope they can take advantage of Bundy’s willingness to serve up the longball. Bundy’s splits against lefties are much worse (.307 average, .904 OPS, 12 home runs allowed) compared to righties (.220 average, .757 OPS, 18 home runs allowed) but I imagine I’ll be building multiple stacks here regardless of handedness and just hunt for power.

If we prioritize the lefties, that puts Curtis Granderson and Justin Smoak at the top of our list. Kendrys Morales is also interesting and should be lower-owned than Smoak, so exposure to him through a site that allows flexibility for multiple first basemen would be contrarian. Because Bundy still allows homers against righties too, that makes Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Russell Martin, Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar and Aledmys Diaz interesting as well. As you can probably tell, I like the Blue Jays a lot. I would likely just roll out a few different stacks and mix-and-match, hoping I hit on the right plays.

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales, Devon Travis

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs								Detroit
			Kyle Hendricks							Jordan Zimmermann
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-155							9.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.312	31.0%	1.38	23.9%	44.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.312	0.317	33.1%	1.31	20.7%	35.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	0.334	30.8%	1.13	17.6%	49.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.349	0.327	38.7%	1.99	20.8%	29.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			7 of 29	Salary Rank:			6 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	24	4.08	3.03	21.6%	7.0%	50.1%	30.4%	22.5%	85.8	8.3%
	2018	25	4.01	4.11	20.4%	6.0%	47.1%	30.9%	22.4%	86.8	9.1%
	L14	2	3.29	4.50	24.5%	3.8%	51.5%	21.6%	27.0%	86.4	11.2%

I am not sure what’s gotten into Kyle Hendricks, but he is on a strikeout tear lately. Over his last five games, he’s struck out 8, 8, 7, 5 and 8 batters. He continues to generate a lot of groundballs (47.1%) and induce a soft contact (22.4%), making him one of the tougher pitchers on this slate to square up against. The Tigers are not an imposing offense and are 13th in K% against right-handed pitching at 22.2%. More importantly is that their team wRC+ of 78 and team ISO of .134 make them one of the worst run-producing and power offenses in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks’ recent excellent form and matchup against a poor Tigers offense makes him an option in all formats.

Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			11 of 29	Salary Rank:			20 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	29	5.22	6.08	14.5%	6.2%	33.2%	39.5%	13.4%	92.2	8.1%
	2018	17	4.09	4.36	20.7%	4.3%	32.9%	35.8%	18.4%	91.1	9.6%
	L14	2	5.06	4.76	9.8%	0.0%	37.0%	41.3%	10.9%	90.5	8.8%

I have to give Jordan Zimmermann a lot of credit, he’s not been as bad as we’re used to seeing him (that’s a compliment, Jordan). He holds a respectable 20.7% K%, which really isn’t bad, but I still just don’t feel comfortable rostering him. The Cubs are among the bottom third of the league in K% and have a team wRC+ of 102 despite being without their best hitter (Kris Bryant) for parts of this year. Plus in five of his last six games, he’s allowed multiple home runs.

Quick Breakdown: While Zimmermann has been better this season, I’m more likely to play batters against him than use him.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

I don’t love this Cubs offense, especially with this game taking place in Comerica Park, but Jordan Zimmermann has been prone to home runs lately so I think you can take some shots here. Zimmermann has struggled more with right-handed bats this season but if we look at the three-year sample coming into 2018, we find that he’s been worse against lefties during that period. My preference would be to stack up the power bats of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber. Ben Zobrist and Ian Happ are also fine as part of a stack, as they have more power against right-handed pitching. I wouldn’t go crazy here with my Cubs exposure as stacking against Zimmermann this season hasn’t been as fruitful as it was last year, but I do think there could be some runs scored here.

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Hendricks has allowed a career-high 20 home runs this year, which is a bit surprising considering he had never allowed more than 17 in a season prior to 2018. I suppose you could try and chase a homer against him at low ownership, but it’s probably not the best play. Hendricks has been pretty solid against both sides of the plate so the batter’s handedness isn’t too important to me. If I did try to chase a homer it would be via Nick Castellanos, but it’s not something I feel great about doing.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Cleveland at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland								Boston
			Shane Bieber							Nathan Eovaldi
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-143							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.397	0.371	48.6%	1.29	25.5%	33.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.345	34.5%	1.19	19.4%	43.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.278	0.259	35.6%	0.55	22.6%	54.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.256	0.279	33.6%	1.50	22.8%	45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Shane Bieber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			12 of 29	Salary Rank:			13 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2018	12	3.59	4.37	24.2%	5.1%	43.9%	42.2%	9.7%	92.7	11.1%
	L14	2	3.62	2.45	27.7%	8.5%	41.4%	33.3%	10.0%	92.7	12.8%

I can see a case to be made for Bieber from a game theory perspective but it’s truly a shot-in-the-dark play for tournaments. On paper this is a dangerous matchup against a Red Sox team that has the lowest K% in the majors against righties and have a team wRC+ of 117. They also hold the highest team ISO at .206. Bieber has been solid against righties and the Red Sox’s best bats are right handed, so even at low ownership it’s hard to recommend Bieber.

Quick Breakdown: The Red Sox offense offers too much blowup risk to roll out Bieber.

Nathan Eovaldi
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			8 of 29	Salary Rank:			7 of 29	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2018	14	3.77	3.62	21.1%	3.5%	44.5%	34.0%	19.3%	97.0	10.2%
	L14	2	4.80	5.87	11.6%	4.7%	45.7%	38.9%	13.9%	96.5	5.7%

I’m viewing Eovaldi similarly to how I’m viewing his opponent, Shane Bieber. You have two good, strikeout pitchers who are facing elite offenses and both of whom struggle more against left-handed batting. And similar to Bieber, I’m more inclined to side with the offenses in this game than the pitching. Eovaldi has flashed strikeout upside but the Indians are right next to the Red Sox in terms of team K% (the Indians are the second hardest team to strikeout, right behind Boston). I don’t plan to get cute here – I’m not going to risk Eovaldi against this elite Indians offense.

Quick Breakdown: Because of how difficult a matchup this is and how the Indians are the second hardest team for right-handed pitching to strikeout, I’m passing on Eovaldi.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

I’m planning to see how the industry treats this spot for the Indians over the course of the day, and I’m definitely going to keep my eye out on projected ownership for the Indians’ bats. I respect Eovaldi enough where I’m not huge on trying to pick on him, but if I get the sense the Indians will be somewhat low-owned in a good hitter’s park, that will increase my desire for an Indians stack. Eovaldi has been hit harder by left-handers so that top of the lineup stack of Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez is really intriguing. Rounding out that stack with fellow lefties Yonder Alonso, Melky Cabrera and Jason Kipnis is ideal. The problem with this stack is that just the Lindor/Brantley/Ramirez portion is incredibly expensive, meaning you’ll have to sacrifice somewhere and it’s usually at the expense of pitching. The good news is we don’t have a top tier level of pitching we absolutely need, so I don’t mind this route in tournaments.

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley, Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Bieber has really struggled against lefties this season, allowing them to hit .319 with a .941 OPS for the season. He’s also allowing a 42.4% hard hit rate to all batters too, so this is a spot where you can certainly load up on the Red Sox and hope they get to him with their power. If you prioritize the lefties, Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland stand out as the best options. J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts should be included as part of a Red Sox stack too. Xander Bogaerts and Ian Kinsler are fine, but I would only include them as part of a stack as Bieber has been solid against right-handed batters this season. The idea of using Jackie Bradley Jr. as part of a wrap-around stack is more appealing to me than including someone like Kinsler, as he’ll hold the platoon-advantage and likely come at lower ownership than other Red Sox bats given he usually bats ninth.

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., J.D. Martinez

Stackability – GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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