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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-13 01:25:19

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez baltimoremlb David Hess
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-155 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.259 0.290 31.6% 6.4% 46.8% 42.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.367 0.331 28.6% 7.1% 17.9% 35.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.290 27.0% 7.8% 23.7% 41.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 0.317 32.7% 6.5% 9.7% 40.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,300
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.05 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 34.9% 30.8% 18.6%
2018 12 3.45 3.68 27.6% 7.5% 41.6% 27.5% 17.4%
L14 2 3.29 2.19 25.5% 4.3% 39.4% 18.2% 18.2%

After an extremely fun weekend in Nashville with the RG crew, I am back home and ready to get back on the grind. The Grind Down video will be back, so look for it to be posted at its usual time. Rodriguez will take the mound for Boston tonight. He is off to a tremendous start this season, posting a 3.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, but he induces a lot of soft and medium contact, which is why he doesn’t allow a ton of home runs. Even though this game is on the road, Rodriguez has a great track record against the current roster of the Orioles — .249 batting average with 52 strikeouts in 204 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is viable in tournaments, but his price on DraftKings makes him a little too pricey to consider in cash games.

David Hess
david-hess-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,400
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 5 5.18 3.07 13.6% 6.8% 38.3% 30.9% 14.9%
L14 2 5.41 1.50 13.0% 6.5% 32.4% 27.0% 18.9%

Hess has a low ERA in his first five starts of the season, but the peripheral statistics don’t quite match up. He currently owns a 5.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14%. He not only has one of the worst matchups of the slate (Red Sox projected lineup has a .382 xwOBA and a 19% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching), but he’s playing in a home run-friendly ballpark. We have 14 other games to get to tonight, so let’s not waste too much time on Hess.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hess in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are sizable favorites against David Hess and the Orioles in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs. Boston has a fairly high implied run total and they are guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats with this game being played in Baltimore. There isn’t anything that really stands out when it comes to Hess and his splits, but he’s a low-strikeout pitcher with mediocre numbers against both left and right-handed hitters. With Mookie Betts back in the lineup, the full Red Sox stack is viable once again. Each of the first five hitters in this lineup have a .370+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.513 0.396 0.352 48.8% 11.5% 13.3% 31.4% OF $4,500 OF $5,800 RF $10,700
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.400 0.486 0.254 27.9% 13.1% 12.6% 34.5% OF $4,700 OF $5,700 LF $11,200
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.480 0.484 0.385 52.5% 10.0% 21.8% 44.8% OF $5,000 OF $5,500 RF $11,100
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.467 0.370 0.315 40.0% 10.7% 17.9% 40.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,500 1B $8,900
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.371 0.335 0.245 37.5% 4.1% 18.7% 44.9% SS $4,300 SS $4,900 SS $9,300
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.333 0.227 0.175 38.9% 8.4% 26.7% 43.8% 3B $3,400 3B $3,400 3B $6,400
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.267 0.253 0.139 27.2% 1.7% 18.5% 50.0% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,600 3B $7,300
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.269 0.318 0.076 22.0% 3.9% 15.0% 41.4% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $4,900
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.334 0.384 0.122 34.7% 10.4% 24.5% 44.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 CF $5,600
Team Averages 0.382 0.361 0.229 36.6% 8.2% 18.8% 41.7%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles haven’t been able to figure out Eduardo Rodriguez in the past. As mentioned above, their current roster has not hit him well outside of Adam Jones, who is 10-for-30 with two home runs and two doubles. Rodriguez is a southpaw with a high fly-ball rate, but he’s done an excellent job against right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .290 xwOBA and a 27% hard contact rate. Outside of a Manny Machado or a Danny Valencia one-off, this is an easy offense to avoid.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.227 0.281 0.088 20.8% 5.6% 27.8% 33.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 RF $5,500
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.342 0.329 0.068 31.3% 2.6% 10.4% 38.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.412 0.284 0.299 36.9% 9.2% 5.3% 32.3% SS $4,500 SS $5,100 3B $10,000
4 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.430 0.398 0.194 31.5% 12.5% 12.5% 44.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 3B $6,500
5 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.293 0.202 0.059 27.9% 8.8% 14.0% 37.2% 2B $3,200 2B $3,300 2B $6,800
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.280 0.266 0.108 36.0% 5.1% 30.8% 56.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 DH $6,300
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.321 0.298 0.163 30.0% 8.0% 22.7% 66.7% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,800
8 Austin Wynns RIGHT 0.297 0.240 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 40.0% C $2,200 C $2,400 C $4,900
9 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.249 0.265 0.059 24.3% 7.3% 25.5% 51.4% OF $2,100 OF $2,500 LF $4,600
Team Averages 0.317 0.285 0.115 26.5% 6.6% 18.4% 44.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (GPP), Danny Valencia (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Colorado Philadelphia
coloradomlb Jon Gray philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-150 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.335 39.3% 6.8% 27.2% 42.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.280 22.1% 9.3% 19.8% 56.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.292 32.0% 7.2% 24.2% 49.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.237 0.249 33.7% 4.0% 30.5% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Gray
jon-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 20 3.74 3.67 24.3% 6.5% 48.9% 28.4% 22.7%
2018 13 3.47 5.66 25.7% 7.0% 45.6% 35.7% 15.7%
L14 2 4.80 7.56 22.2% 13.3% 33.3% 37.9% 10.3%

Gray has been one of the most hit or miss starters in baseball this season, but there’s no denying his talent. He is due for some positive regression, as his SIERA (3.47) is two full runs lower than his ERA. His peripheral statistics are all above the major league average — 26% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, 46% ground ball rate, and a slate-leading 12.8% swinging strike rate. The good news is that his high ERA has kept his price affordable across the industry. I will keep going back to the well in hopes that the tables will start to turn (much like I did with Matt Carpenter earlier in the year). This is certainly an exploitable matchup, as the Phillies’ projected lineup has a 28% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is an elite tournament play tonight that could fly under the radar given the fact that Nola is pitching opposite him.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $12,000 Salary: $22,900
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6%
2018 13 3.42 2.35 24.8% 6.8% 53.7% 27.3% 19.6%
L14 2 3.61 2.77 25.5% 9.8% 63.6% 39.4% 9.1%

There are very few occasions when two of my favorite pitching targets are squaring off against each other, especially in a home run-friendly ballpark. Jon Gray and Aaron Nola are both very talented and they are facing high-strikeout offenses. Nola is the safer play of the two, as he currently owns a 3.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a ground ball rate of 54%. The Rockies have struggled on the road this season and their projected lineup has a .317 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Nola is arguably the top pitching option on the board and it’s not the worst idea to pair these two in hopes of a pitcher’s duel.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is an elite play in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

With so much interest in these two starts, I will naturally have very little exposure to these two offenses. Yes, Citizens Bank Park is one of the best for home run production, but there are better matchups to exploit in tonight’s 15-game slate. In addition to having above-average strikeout and ground ball rates, Aaron Nola has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA this season. Unless you are building 20+ lineups, the Rockies are an easy fade in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.356 0.364 0.121 33.3% 6.0% 15.0% 52.9% 2B $3,600 2B $4,000 2B $7,700
2 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.371 0.258 0.275 36.3% 12.3% 21.1% 43.4% OF $4,600 OF $5,100 CF $9,400
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.359 0.334 0.193 36.8% 11.7% 21.6% 40.4% 3B $4,500 3B $5,000 3B $10,100
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.317 0.359 0.221 32.5% 7.0% 22.8% 38.8% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 RF $7,500
5 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.358 0.401 0.213 44.5% 8.4% 27.4% 34.2% SS $4,000 SS $4,400 SS $8,500
6 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.327 0.312 0.101 36.2% 5.4% 15.0% 43.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 LF $6,500
7 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.301 0.402 0.167 29.0% 7.8% 26.5% 66.4% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,600 LF $7,400
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.266 0.264 0.092 17.5% 12.2% 15.6% 60.3% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Jon Gray RIGHT 0.199 0.030 0.067 0.0% 11.8% 47.1% 71.4% P $7,500 P $8,000 P $15,000
Team Averages 0.317 0.303 0.161 29.6% 9.2% 23.6% 50.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

Unlike Aaron Nola, there is a boom or bust nature with Jon Gray. He has been shelled a number of times this season, which makes the Phillies a little more appealing than the Rockies. With that said, I will have much more exposure to Gray than I will to this offense. In addition to having above-average strikeout and ground ball rates, he has held right-handed hitters to a .292 xwOBA. His one struggle has been against left-handed hitters, allowing a .335 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.335 0.329 0.161 25.8% 13.8% 23.2% 43.1% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.382 0.320 0.201 33.3% 12.8% 29.3% 31.2% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,500
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.317 0.197 0.148 25.8% 8.9% 19.4% 43.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,200
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.394 0.299 0.242 36.2% 18.2% 13.9% 36.5% 1B $3,600 1B $3,900 1B $6,900
5 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.297 0.291 0.106 26.6% 5.8% 22.1% 40.2% SS $2,400 3B/SS $3,000 SS $5,800
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.382 0.327 0.243 29.6% 8.1% 24.4% 46.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 LF $6,700
7 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.277 0.315 0.142 30.8% 3.3% 40.0% 52.3% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,800
8 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.286 0.371 0.134 23.4% 4.1% 28.4% 42.2% SS $2,100 3B/SS $3,000 SS $5,900
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.141 0.000 0.000 0.0% 5.6% 50.0% 60.0% P $9,500 P $12,000 P $22,900
Team Averages 0.312 0.272 0.153 25.7% 9.0% 27.9% 44.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Washington NY Yankees
washingtonmlb Tanner Roark nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-160 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 0.319 29.6% 7.8% 22.2% 43.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.237 21.4% 7.0% 25.6% 53.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.254 0.338 29.3% 8.1% 18.8% 48.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.304 30.1% 5.9% 16.3% 40.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.31 4.67 21.4% 8.3% 48.2% 27.8% 16.7%
2018 12 4.20 3.56 20.6% 7.9% 45.9% 29.4% 21.3%
L14 2 5.47 5.54 12.1% 10.3% 45.5% 36.4% 20.5%

Roark has been consistent over the last few seasons, but comes into tonight’s start in bad form. In his last two starts, he has a 5.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 12% and a walk rate of 10%. I’m not worried about Roark in the long run, but he’s certainly an easy fade tonight against the Yankees. This is one of the worst matchups of the slate, he’s pitching on the road, he’s playing in an American League ballpark, and he’s a sizable underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Roark offers more downside than upside in a matchup against the Yankees.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.45 3.69 19.3% 8.0% 49.9% 27.2% 24.1%
2018 11 4.38 3.59 18.0% 6.1% 42.4% 28.8% 26.1%
L14 2 4.26 3.75 20.0% 6.0% 35.1% 24.3% 24.3%

Sabathia is one of those pitchers that will have decent fantasy outings every now and then, but will never garner much ownership. In 11 starts this season, he has a 4.38 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate of 18%. His biggest strength is his ability to induce soft and medium contact. His matchup against the Nationals is far from ideal, as the first five hitters in their projected lineup all have a .355+ xwOBA against southpaws this season. While I like Sabathia’s chances to pick up a win tonight, I don’t see the upside need to win a tournament.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia isn’t the worst play on the board, but there are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals get to utilize the DH in this series and are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. They have a number of hitters in their lineup with good numbers against southpaws, but I’m still hesitant to load up on any offense that is facing CC Sabathia. His soft contact rate (26%) is nearly as high as his hard contact rate (28%) and over the course of the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA. Outside of an Anthony Rendon one-off (.452 xwOBA against southpaw), there are better matchups to exploit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.383 0.331 0.107 33.9% 12.8% 11.6% 46.0% SS $4,000 SS $4,500 IF/OF $9,400
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.377 0.319 0.210 37.9% 14.3% 25.5% 44.8% OF $4,500 OF $5,400 RF $11,100
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.452 0.354 0.196 46.2% 13.3% 21.7% 15.4% 3B $3,600 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.355 0.251 0.138 36.4% 6.5% 22.6% 50.0% 1B $3,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.401 0.347 0.440 43.5% 16.7% 6.7% 56.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 LF $8,400
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.268 0.373 0.203 43.2% 4.1% 35.6% 53.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
7 Daniel Murphy LEFT 2B $2,900 2B $4,100 2B $8,400
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.237 0.266 0.105 27.9% 5.0% 23.3% 40.5% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,000 2B $5,800
9 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.281 0.180 0.054 24.1% 11.4% 20.5% 28.6% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.344 0.303 0.182 36.6% 10.5% 20.9% 41.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the tougher matchups to figure out tonight. They have a high implied run total and are facing a pitcher in bad form, but historically we haven’t stacked many teams against Tanner Roark. He has above-average ground ball and soft contact rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .340 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Rather than a full Yankees’ stack, I would rather chase their upside through one-off targets. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are high on my list of tournament targets at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.314 0.312 0.175 31.9% 13.0% 16.5% 47.8% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.410 0.329 0.324 45.5% 14.4% 29.7% 46.4% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 RF $11,100
3 Greg Bird LEFT 0.279 0.309 0.244 40.6% 4.2% 27.1% 46.9% 1B $3,400 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.310 0.345 0.179 33.6% 8.9% 33.0% 52.2% OF $4,400 OF $5,000 RF $9,800
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.336 0.165 0.224 35.1% 10.2% 26.1% 41.4% C $3,200 C $4,200 C $8,100
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.340 0.287 0.235 41.0% 9.7% 14.5% 33.3% SS $3,700 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
7 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.344 0.341 0.165 40.0% 13.8% 20.3% 44.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.400 0.475 0.240 38.2% 3.8% 17.8% 48.0% 3B $3,700 3B $4,200 3B $8,400
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.401 0.379 0.257 38.0% 5.8% 26.4% 29.5% 2B $3,800 2B $4,100 2B $8,500
Team Averages 0.348 0.327 0.227 38.2% 9.3% 23.5% 43.3%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge (GPP), Gary Sanchez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge (Cash), Gary Sanchez (Cash), Brett Gardner, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
minnesotamlb Jake Odorizzi detroitmlb Blaine Hardy
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.359 36.1% 10.1% 21.7% 21.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.330 34.5% 2.7% 13.5% 37.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.340 33.6% 8.6% 24.7% 28.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.312 33.3% 7.5% 18.3% 35.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.90 4.14 21.0% 10.1% 30.6% 36.8% 15.3%
2018 13 4.40 4.24 23.4% 9.3% 25.0% 34.7% 20.7%
L14 2 4.07 10.38 22.7% 6.8% 24.1% 41.4% 6.9%

There are only a handful of pitchers that have a higher hard contact rate than ground ball rate and his is 10% higher. That’s generally a big red flag, as it will lead to a lot of home runs. Throughout his career, Odorizzi has been a reverse-splits pitcher, which doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the right-handed heavy Tigers. It’s not like this is a great matchup either, as Detroit’s projected lineup has a .337 xwOBA and a 19% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Odorizzi in all formats.

Blaine Hardy
blaine-hardy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.66 5.94 18.0% 8.3% 33.0% 36.5% 20.0%
2018 5 4.58 3.66 16.9% 6.2% 36.5% 33.7% 19.4%
L14 2 5.30 5.25 10.4% 8.3% 55.3% 34.2% 23.7%

Hardy has an ERA under four over his last five starts, but is not the type of pitcher that we are looking to target in DFS. He’s due for regression and he has a below-average strikeout rate (17%). We’ve been targeting southpaws against the Twins with success all season, but they are finally starting to get healthy. They no longer have to roll out four or five left-handed hitters against southpaws and historically, most of their righties have hit lefties well in their respective careers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hardy in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins haven’t fared well against southpaws this season, but draw an exploitable matchup against Blaine Hardy, who has allowed a .330 xwOBA to lefties and a 33% hard contact rate to righties this season. This isn’t a spot to fully stack the Twins, but Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, and Robbie Grossman are all on my radar for tournaments. Dozier has historically mashed left-handed pitching, Escobar has been productive all year, and Grossman might be the cheapest clean-up batter in tonight’s slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.230 0.296 0.125 23.1% 11.1% 16.7% 46.2% 2B $4,100 2B $4,300 2B $8,600
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.327 0.372 0.217 36.8% 1.4% 18.3% 39.3% OF $4,300 OF $4,700 LF $9,400
3 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.324 0.468 0.169 38.5% 12.0% 18.7% 34.6% 3B $4,000 3B/SS $4,600 SS $8,900
4 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.264 0.328 0.071 21.9% 12.2% 22.4% 34.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 LF $5,400
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.366 0.279 0.302 34.0% 11.1% 19.4% 36.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,300 RF $6,700
6 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.227 0.238 0.121 26.3% 12.8% 38.5% 31.6% 3B $3,400 1B/3B $4,000 IF/OF $7,300
7 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.259 0.322 0.057 36.0% 7.9% 26.3% 40.0% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,500
8 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.302 0.390 0.200 32.0% 7.7% 25.6% 29.2% SS $2,900 SS $2,900 SS $5,900
9 Ryan LaMarre RIGHT 0.158 0.255 0.000 35.7% 0.0% 39.1% 57.1% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
Team Averages 0.273 0.328 0.140 31.6% 8.5% 25.0% 38.7%

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier (GPP), Eduardo Escobar (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier (Cash), Eduardo Escobar (Cash), Robbie Grossman

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers are a sneaky stack in tonight’s 15-game slate. I expect all of their hitters to be low owned, so the ownership of a complete stack will be miniscule. They are facing an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has struggled with allowing too many home runs. They are playing at home, they are cheap, and as a whole, they have good numbers against right-handed pitching. Batters from both sides of the plate are viable, as Odorizzi has allowed a .359 xwOBA to lefties and a .340 xwOBA to righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.425 0.386 0.222 41.5% 9.7% 20.0% 35.5% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.371 0.329 0.174 49.0% 3.4% 23.4% 33.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.388 0.336 0.165 44.2% 12.6% 15.1% 57.0% 1B $2,800 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
4 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.320 0.321 0.220 33.6% 10.5% 25.1% 38.3% 3B $3,000 3B $4,100 3B $8,500
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.358 0.324 0.097 45.4% 9.2% 10.4% 36.9% C $2,100 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.286 0.287 0.072 34.6% 6.6% 19.9% 38.2% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,500
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.312 0.248 0.167 31.8% 3.1% 26.1% 41.3% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,500
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.273 0.312 0.101 25.3% 4.7% 11.5% 45.8% SS $2,300 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.300 0.247 0.073 32.2% 6.7% 18.4% 45.5% 2B $2,000 2B $2,700 SS $5,500
Team Averages 0.337 0.310 0.143 37.5% 7.4% 18.9% 41.3%

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin (GPP), Nick Castellanos (GPP), Miguel Cabrera (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin (Cash), Nick Castellanos (Cash), Miguel Cabrera (Cash), Jeimer Candelario

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

San Francisco Miami
sanfranciscomlb Chris Stratton miamimlb Trevor Richards
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -110 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.383 37.6% 11.6% 16.2% 41.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.314 36.1% 13.9% 29.2% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.382 46.8% 8.3% 25.0% 35.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.363 0.396 50.0% 7.9% 14.3% 43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Stratton
christopher-stratton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,400
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 4.83 3.68 19.9% 10.9% 42.8% 28.4% 21.0%
2018 13 4.65 4.63 19.8% 10.2% 39.1% 41.2% 10.3%
L14 2 3.76 2.70 23.3% 7.0% 41.4% 30.0% 6.7%

Stratton has had a few solid outings this season, but it’s been more about run prevention than racking up a bunch of strikeouts. In 13 starts, he has a 4.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 10%. His hard contact rate is higher than his ground ball rate, which is always a red flag. Luckily, he gets to face the less than potent Marlins in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Miami’s projected lineup has a .294 xwOBA and a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I won’t talk anyone off of Stratton, but he’s not for me.

Trevor Richards
trevor-richards-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 6 4.51 5.02 21.9% 10.9% 39.3% 44.1% 15.5%
L14 1 3.63 5.40 19.1% 0.0% 41.2% 52.9% 5.9%

Richards has a decent strikeout rate, but typically has more risk than potential upside. In his six starts this season, he has a 4.51 SIERA with a walk rate of 11%. Like Chris Stratton, his hard contact rate is higher than his ground ball rate. With all of that said, he draws an exploitable matchup at home and is cheaper than Stratton if you want to look at him in large-field tournaments. The projected lineup for the Giants has a .311 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Richards is worth a flier in large-field tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants go from a pitcher-friendly ballpark on the West Coast to a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Miami. Their matchup against Trevor Richards is mediocre, which isn’t exactly what we are looking for in a 15-game slate. On the season, Richards has allowed a .314 xwOBA to lefties and a .396 xwOBA to righties. We shouldn’t go overboard with our exposure to the Giants tonight, but Buster Posey and Andrew McCutchen are viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Panik LEFT 0.397 0.362 0.099 34.9% 8.5% 7.3% 48.5% 2B $2,600 2B $3,300 2B $6,800
2 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.358 0.372 0.096 35.7% 6.1% 14.3% 46.1% C $2,800 C $4,000 C $7,600
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.368 0.345 0.173 47.0% 12.9% 21.3% 31.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 RF $7,300
4 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.361 0.396 0.174 41.2% 5.7% 20.3% 40.2% SS $3,400 SS $4,100 SS $8,300
5 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.346 0.388 0.195 46.7% 7.4% 29.5% 51.7% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,400
6 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.305 0.335 0.146 44.6% 2.9% 25.3% 40.5% 3B $2,500 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
7 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.242 0.353 0.027 32.0% 7.3% 31.7% 44.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,600 RF $4,500
8 Mac Williamson RIGHT 0.296 0.282 0.163 30.3% 5.8% 30.8% 54.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,400
9 Chris Stratton RIGHT 0.126 0.065 0.000 30.0% 0.0% 41.2% 66.7% P $6,600 P $7,900 P $15,400
Team Averages 0.311 0.322 0.119 38.0% 6.3% 24.6% 47.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins draw an exploitable matchup against Chris Stratton, but may not have the talent needed to truly take advantage of it. Outside of J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour, the Marlins don’t have another hitter in their lineup with an xwOBA over .350 this season. While I don’t love the Marlins, I do have some interest in Realmuto and Bour. Stratton has allowed a .383 xwOBA to lefties and a .382 xwOBA to righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.301 0.336 0.113 37.0% 5.7% 20.6% 50.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
2 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.340 0.424 0.165 38.2% 4.2% 21.1% 43.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.400 0.427 0.235 44.6% 7.2% 15.8% 43.8% C $3,500 C $4,100 C $8,200
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.406 0.370 0.252 42.0% 17.1% 22.0% 38.4% 1B $3,000 1B $3,200 1B $6,700
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.348 0.402 0.107 37.0% 7.1% 21.4% 48.1% 3B $3,200 3B/OF $3,600 3B $7,600
6 JT Riddle LEFT 0.250 0.277 0.081 34.8% 2.6% 36.8% 52.2% SS $2,300 SS $2,700 SS $5,900
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.288 0.191 0.118 31.5% 4.8% 14.0% 56.6% SS $2,100 3B/SS $2,800 2B $5,500
8 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.270 0.345 0.135 38.1% 4.2% 35.5% 51.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
9 Trevor Richards RIGHT 0.040 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 57.1% 100.0% P $5,800 P $7,600 P $15,000
Team Averages 0.294 0.308 0.134 33.7% 5.9% 27.1% 53.8%

Elite Plays – J.T. Realmuto (GPP), Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto (Cash), Justin Bour (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious