MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 25th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
Miami | Washington | ||||||||||||||
Jeff Brigham | Max Scherzer | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
WAS-370 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.291 | 0.325 | 30.0% | 0.00 | 18.2% | 20.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.265 | 0.258 | 26.5% | 0.98 | 31.3% | 35.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.406 | 0.425 | 50.0% | 1.69 | 16.0% | 5.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.240 | 0.265 | 32.9% | 0.96 | 38.2% | 34.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeff Brigham | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $12,200 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 25 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 3 | 6.55 | 5.84 | 17.2% | 15.5% | 13.2% | 39.5% | 18.4% | 92.9 | 8.1% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.71 | 4.82 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 17.9% | 35.7% | 21.4% | 93.4 | 6.7% |
There are 14 games in the main slate tonight. We start with the Marlins and Nationals, two teams with nothing to play for at this point of the season. Brigham has not fared well in his first three starts of the season and I certainly don’t expect that to change tonight. Washington has power from both sides of the plate and they draw a lot of walks, which doesn’t bode well for a pitcher that has struggled with his control.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Brigham in all formats.
Max Scherzer | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $12,400 | Salary: | $12,800 | Salary: | $24,800 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 1 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 31 | 2.98 | 2.51 | 34.4% | 7.1% | 36.5% | 26.5% | 19.5% | 94.1 | 15.5% | |
2018 | 32 | 2.72 | 2.57 | 34.6% | 6.1% | 34.9% | 29.4% | 23.8% | 94.4 | 16.1% | |
L14 | 2 | 2.99 | 7.36 | 37.3% | 9.8% | 19.2% | 34.6% | 19.2% | 94.1 | 16.5% |
Scherzer has been a beast this season, posting a 2.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. Don’t be concerned with his 7.36 ERA over his last two outings, as his advanced numbers in those starts were still elite. He’s clearly the top pitching option on the board tonight, as he takes on a struggling Marlins’ offense at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Miami’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .312 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats, but he certainly costs a pretty penny.
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Do you really want to target the Marlins on the road against Max Scherzer, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season? I didn’t think so.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | JT Riddle | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.164 | 32.6% | 7.3% | 19.1% | 47.5% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,900 |
2 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.124 | 35.7% | 6.6% | 19.5% | 49.7% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $5,500 |
3 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.223 | 38.7% | 7.7% | 18.7% | 40.8% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,900 | C | $7,300 |
4 | Peter O’Brien | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.273 | 40.9% | 10.5% | 31.6% | 45.5% | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,100 | LF | $5,600 |
5 | Brian Anderson | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.114 | 37.3% | 7.9% | 19.3% | 53.8% | 3B | $2,300 | 3B/OF | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,700 |
6 | Lewis Brinson | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.137 | 39.4% | 3.3% | 31.9% | 52.3% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,600 | CF | $4,900 |
7 | Austin Dean | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.173 | 32.8% | 2.4% | 16.9% | 43.3% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,900 | LF | $5,500 |
8 | Magneuris Sierra | LEFT | 0.182 | 0.009 | 21.4% | 3.4% | 24.8% | 52.9% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,700 | CF | $5,600 |
9 | Jeff Brigham | RIGHT | P | $5,600 | P | $6,200 | P | $12,200 | ||||||
Team Averages | 0.312 | 0.152 | 34.9% | 6.1% | 22.7% | 48.2% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Washington
The Nationals draw one of the best matchups of the slate and have their ace on the mound, which is why they are listed as a -350 favorite. Jeff Brigham has nearly as many walks as strikeouts this season and has allowed a .325 xwOBA to lefties and a .425 xwOBA to righties. Similar to last night’s game, the splits set up well for Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon. The left-handed bats of Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are certainly viable in tournaments, especially if you are looking to employ a low-owned four-man stack.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Victor Robles | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.207 | 36.4% | 3.1% | 25.0% | 18.2% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,500 |
2 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.143 | 30.3% | 8.6% | 20.0% | 51.6% | SS | $4,200 | SS | $5,400 | IF/OF | $10,400 |
3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.395 | 0.260 | 42.4% | 19.0% | 24.9% | 38.5% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,100 | RF | $9,400 |
4 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.194 | 35.9% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 36.3% | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $5,000 | 3B | $9,600 |
5 | Juan Soto | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.214 | 34.8% | 17.6% | 19.8% | 51.2% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,700 | LF | $9,400 |
6 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.208 | 37.6% | 6.5% | 17.3% | 50.3% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $8,000 |
7 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.305 | 0.121 | 33.6% | 7.8% | 14.7% | 35.7% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,700 |
8 | Wilmer Difo | SWITCH | 0.295 | 0.138 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 16.6% | 43.2% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,400 |
9 | Max Scherzer | RIGHT | 0.214 | 0.040 | 15.9% | 0.0% | 17.9% | 69.2% | P | $12,400 | P | $12,800 | P | $24,800 |
Team Averages | 0.331 | 0.169 | 32.1% | 8.9% | 18.8% | 43.8% |
Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash), Juan Soto (Cash)
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Houston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
Houston | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
Josh James | Sam Gaviglio | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
HOU-157 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.342 | 0.318 | 43.8% | 1.35 | 32.3% | 31.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.353 | 0.373 | 36.6% | 1.59 | 15.4% | 42.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.162 | 0.175 | 11.1% | 0.96 | 42.4% | 50.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.340 | 0.321 | 30.5% | 1.60 | 23.7% | 52.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Josh James | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $15,900 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 16 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 2 | 2.64 | 2.81 | 37.5% | 9.4% | 41.2% | 26.5% | 32.4% | 97.4 | 13.2% | |
L14 | 1 | 3.07 | 2.16 | 32.4% | 8.8% | 40.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 97.3 | 16.8% |
James is a talented young rookie with plenty of upside. At the Double-A level this season, he posted a strikeout rate of 40%. At the Triple-A level, he posted a strikeout rate of 36%. In his first major league stint, he owns a strikeout rate of 38%. We were worried about a potential pitch count in his last start, but he threw 87 pitches in a dominant outing against the Mariners. Assuming all goes well, we can expect him to throw 90+ pitches tonight against the Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has four batters with a k-rate above 25% against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: The price is still affordable on James. I view him as an elite tournament play and a decent SP2 in cash games.
Sam Gaviglio | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $4,500 | Salary: | $9,500 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 21 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 13 | 4.96 | 4.36 | 15.7% | 8.3% | 49.4% | 31.5% | 15.7% | 88.6 | 7.1% | |
2018 | 22 | 4.15 | 5.18 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 47.9% | 33.4% | 17.7% | 87.9 | 8.9% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.35 | 4.32 | 8.1% | 5.4% | 53.1% | 21.9% | 28.1% | 87.5 | 4.2% |
Gaviglio has been mediocre at best this season, posting a 4.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. The story with him is simple — when he’s facing a right-handed heavy lineup that strikes out a lot, we can target him as a cheap SP2. While the Astros have a right-handed heavy lineup, they don’t meet the second half of the criteria. Their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of only 16.5% against right-handed pitching. With limited upside and a low floor, we can look elsewhere tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gaviglio in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros got off to such a great start last night, but only ended up scoring five runs. They had so many line outs and deep fly-ball outs, but that’s the breaks of playing a volatile sport like baseball. Tonight’s matchup against Sam Gaviglio doesn’t exactly stand out. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .321 xwOBA on a 53% ground ball rate. Almost all of the hitters that we like to target from Houston are right-handed and most of them (with the exception of Alex Bregman) have high ground ball rates. I’m not as high on this offense as I was last night.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.156 | 31.9% | 10.4% | 18.2% | 50.2% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,500 | RF | $9,100 |
2 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.147 | 31.9% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 47.9% | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $4,600 | 2B | $9,200 |
3 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.403 | 0.243 | 36.7% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 35.1% | 3B | $4,300 | 3B/SS | $4,900 | 3B | $8,800 |
4 | Yuli Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.123 | 29.9% | 3.4% | 10.7% | 49.1% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $9,400 |
5 | Marwin Gonzalez | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.167 | 37.1% | 11.3% | 23.8% | 43.4% | SS | $3,200 | OF/SS | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
6 | Tyler White | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.278 | 33.9% | 8.9% | 16.4% | 43.1% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,700 |
7 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.306 | 0.105 | 31.2% | 11.5% | 16.1% | 35.7% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,200 |
8 | Martin Maldonado | RIGHT | 0.259 | 0.134 | 28.4% | 3.8% | 24.6% | 40.2% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,800 |
9 | Tony Kemp | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.164 | 31.5% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 45.1% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,800 |
Team Averages | 0.327 | 0.169 | 32.5% | 9.4% | 16.5% | 43.3% |
Elite Plays – Alex Bregman (GPP), Marwin Gonzalez (DK)
Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman (Cash), Marwin Gonzalez (FD), George Springer, Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
The Blue Jays draw a difficult matchup against Josh James, who currently boasts a 2.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38%. Sure, we are dealing with a small sample size and sure, he’s a young pitcher that is playing on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but I’m buying the hype. Outside of a Billy McKinney (.365 xwOBA against righties and a cheap price point) one-off, I will be avoiding this Blue Jays’ offense.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Billy McKinney | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.193 | 34.4% | 7.2% | 25.8% | 40.6% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,500 | LF | $6,400 |
2 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.398 | 0.260 | 40.3% | 16.1% | 26.9% | 34.5% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,200 |
3 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.263 | 37.0% | 5.6% | 25.8% | 35.0% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $8,100 |
4 | Rowdy Tellez | LEFT | 0.458 | 0.472 | 41.9% | 0.0% | 13.9% | 32.3% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,300 |
5 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.194 | 33.6% | 3.7% | 12.8% | 40.2% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B/SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,700 |
6 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.166 | 33.7% | 3.7% | 19.0% | 34.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,200 |
7 | Richard Urena | SWITCH | 0.272 | 0.061 | 44.4% | 6.9% | 30.6% | 36.4% | SS | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,600 |
8 | Devon Travis | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.128 | 30.0% | 5.1% | 18.4% | 52.7% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,900 |
9 | Reese McGuire | LEFT | 0.425 | 0.176 | 33.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 26.7% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,700 |
Team Averages | 0.364 | 0.213 | 36.5% | 6.5% | 20.4% | 36.9% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Billy McKinney
Stackability – ORANGE
Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET
Atlanta | NY Mets | ||||||||||||||
Touki Toussaint | Noah Syndergaard | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYM-145 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.188 | 0.293 | 29.2% | 0.00 | 20.5% | 66.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.292 | 0.278 | 22.3% | 0.36 | 22.1% | 46.2% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.365 | 0.353 | 33.3% | 0.71 | 25.4% | 37.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.300 | 0.276 | 21.8% | 0.84 | 27.0% | 52.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Touki Toussaint | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $14,900 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 18 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 4 | 4.97 | 4.30 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 50.0% | 31.6% | 28.1% | 93.4 | 8.9% | |
L14 | 1 | 5.91 | 6.75 | 24.2% | 21.2% | 25.0% | 35.3% | 29.4% | 93.3 | 8.5% |
Toussaint is making his fifth career major league start. While he has shown some strikeout upside, he has really struggled with his control (16% walk rate). Tonight he faces an underrated Mets’ offense on the road and he comes into the game as a sizable underdog. He’s a tremendous prospect and I’m expecting big things from him in the future, but I will take a wait and see approach until he can improve his command.
Quick Breakdown: For now, avoid Toussaint in all formats.
Noah Syndergaard | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,500 | Salary: | $10,200 | Salary: | $19,500 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 5 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 7 | 2.74 | 2.97 | 27.4% | 2.4% | 57.6% | 30.2% | 16.3% | 98.3 | 13.9% | |
2018 | 23 | 3.54 | 3.36 | 24.4% | 6.3% | 48.7% | 22.1% | 24.1% | 97.5 | 13.8% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.43 | 2.45 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 42.9% | 32.1% | 17.9% | 97.7 | 9.8% |
Syndergaard hasn’t been his elite self this season. Don’t get me wrong, he has still been very good, posting a 3.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He’s one of the only pitchers in baseball that has a higher soft contact rate than hard contact rate. While he doesn’t have the same strikeout upside as Max Scherzer, we don’t have to pay the same price point. Syndergaard is only $9,500 on FanDuel and $10,200 on DraftKings. He’s certainly viable tonight against the Braves, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .307 with a strikeout rate of 21% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Syndergaard is an elite tournament play tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
The Braves are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and draw a difficult matchup against Noah Syndergaard, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA this season. The only real weakness that Syndergaard has is his inability to hold runners. This brings Ronald Acuna (15 stolen bases) and Ender Inciarte (28 stolen bases) into play for tournaments at virtually no ownership.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ronald Acuna | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.262 | 47.4% | 8.5% | 26.3% | 41.0% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $9,400 |
2 | Ender Inciarte | LEFT | 0.305 | 0.136 | 32.2% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 42.8% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,500 |
3 | Freddie Freeman | LEFT | 0.413 | 0.182 | 44.7% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 34.5% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,700 | 1B | $9,400 |
4 | Nick Markakis | LEFT | 0.385 | 0.150 | 41.0% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 42.1% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,600 |
5 | Johan Camargo | SWITCH | 0.314 | 0.166 | 34.9% | 10.8% | 20.4% | 45.8% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
6 | Kurt Suzuki | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.163 | 38.1% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 34.6% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,500 |
7 | Ozzie Albies | SWITCH | 0.299 | 0.187 | 33.2% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 36.2% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,300 |
8 | Dansby Swanson | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.155 | 33.9% | 7.9% | 22.3% | 42.6% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $5,500 |
9 | Touki Toussaint | RIGHT | 0.035 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 66.7% | P | $6,400 | P | $7,500 | P | $14,900 |
Team Averages | 0.307 | 0.156 | 33.9% | 7.6% | 20.5% | 42.9% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Ronald Acuna (GPP), Ender Inciarte (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
NY Mets
Touki Toussaint is one of the Braves’ top pitching prospects and has a very bright future ahead of him. While I typically like to pick on young pitchers that are on the road, I’m hesitant to load up on the Mets in a 12-game slate. The fact that they are priced up across the industry (with the exception of Jay Bruce on FanDuel) doesn’t help. Overall, this is a game that I will have very little exposure to outside of Noah Syndergaard.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.123 | 26.7% | 4.7% | 19.0% | 49.8% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,500 |
2 | Jeff McNeil | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.139 | 28.7% | 5.4% | 10.8% | 37.1% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,500 |
3 | Michael Conforto | LEFT | 0.346 | 0.190 | 36.5% | 15.0% | 22.7% | 40.7% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,800 | LF | $8,600 |
4 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.376 | 0.155 | 34.2% | 12.7% | 19.0% | 29.2% | OF | $2,800 | 1B/OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,200 |
5 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.376 | 0.250 | 36.4% | 15.9% | 23.5% | 41.3% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,800 | LF | $8,900 |
6 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.264 | 0.188 | 33.3% | 2.6% | 34.5% | 34.7% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
7 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.207 | 43.6% | 9.1% | 22.3% | 33.9% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,300 |
8 | Tomas Nido | RIGHT | 0.244 | 0.078 | 34.1% | 3.0% | 30.3% | 50.0% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,100 | C | $5,500 |
9 | Noah Syndergaard | RIGHT | 0.153 | 0.031 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 61.8% | 45.5% | P | $9,500 | P | $10,200 | P | $19,500 |
Team Averages | 0.301 | 0.151 | 33.0% | 7.6% | 27.1% | 40.2% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce (FD)
Stackability – ORANGE
Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET
Baltimore | Boston | ||||||||||||||
Jimmy Yacabonis | David Price | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
BOS-320 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.406 | 0.336 | 31.0% | 1.42 | 16.4% | 43.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.296 | 0.309 | 29.5% | 1.29 | 23.1% | 45.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.346 | 0.358 | 32.1% | 2.70 | 24.1% | 36.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.295 | 0.328 | 33.1% | 1.20 | 24.7% | 39.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jimmy Yacabonis | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $4,400 | Salary: | $8,500 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 23 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 0 | 6.67 | 4.35 | 8.9% | 15.6% | 48.5% | 32.4% | 27.9% | 95.4 | 5.3% | |
2018 | 5 | 4.30 | 6.34 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 39.6% | 31.6% | 19.4% | 93.5 | 10.9% | |
L14 | 1 | 3.70 | 5.14 | 24.1% | 6.9% | 41.2% | 16.7% | 22.2% | 93.4 | 17.7% |
Yacabonis has made five major league starts this season, posting a 4.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that is facing the Red Sox in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. He hasn’t been particularly good against left or right-handed hitters, so he could be in for a very short outing. He offers significantly more risk than upside.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Yacabonis in all formats.
David Price | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,800 | Salary: | $9,500 | Salary: | $18,600 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 4 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 11 | 4.05 | 3.38 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 39.9% | 32.9% | 20.7% | 94.3 | 11.7% | |
2018 | 29 | 3.80 | 3.53 | 24.5% | 6.7% | 40.0% | 32.5% | 19.1% | 92.7 | 9.6% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.83 | 2.92 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 32.4% | 46.0% | 18.9% | 93.2 | 8.7% |
Price struggled in his last start against the Yankees, but that’s a trend that has been going on for years. I’m willing to overlook one bad start and look at his season as a whole. In 29 starts, he owns a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. He comes into tonight’s game as a -320 favorite against the Orioles, who may have the worst lineup in baseball. Their projected starters for tonight’s game own an average xwOBA of .270 with a strikeout rate of 27% against southpaws. I’m buying low on Price and will be using him in all formats.
Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Price is my favorite pitcher of the slate.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but you actually have to hit the ball for the park to be friendly. This lineup looks absolutely atrocious. They don’t have a single hitter with an xwOBA over .325 against left-handed pitching and eight of their nine projected starters has a k-rate of at least 24%. I can’t wait to play David Price tonight.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cedric Mullins | LEFT | 0.219 | 0.000 | 17.4% | 15.6% | 33.3% | 57.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,000 |
2 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.216 | 28.0% | 7.5% | 30.0% | 30.6% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
3 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.315 | 0.160 | 41.1% | 5.3% | 28.9% | 53.5% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,600 |
4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.108 | 31.0% | 2.5% | 9.9% | 40.0% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,700 |
5 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.116 | 22.3% | 6.7% | 24.2% | 67.8% | OF | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,300 |
6 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.186 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 25.5% | 44.9% | SS | $2,500 | 3B/SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,600 |
7 | Renato Nunez | RIGHT | 0.264 | 0.096 | 26.4% | 6.3% | 26.3% | 41.5% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,300 |
8 | Austin Wynns | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.000 | 22.6% | 0.0% | 27.9% | 51.6% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,600 |
9 | John Andreoli | RIGHT | 0.163 | 0.000 | 25.0% | 3.7% | 37.0% | 12.5% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,300 |
Team Averages | 0.270 | 0.098 | 27.1% | 6.2% | 27.0% | 44.4% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Boston
The Red Sox should be able to cruise to a victory tonight against the Orioles. They have the clear edge in pitching and offensively, which should result in a blowout. Granted, anything can happen in baseball, but I don’t see how the Orioles stay competitive here. Jimmy Yacabonis is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .336 xwOBA to lefties and a .358 xwOBA to righties. We know this ballpark favors right-handed power, so the trio of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts stands out in this matchup. You can obviously complete the Boston stack with the left-handed bats of Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, and Mitch Moreland.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.447 | 0.267 | 44.6% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 33.4% | OF | $5,100 | OF | $6,200 | RF | $11,400 |
2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.389 | 0.185 | 29.1% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 39.4% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,900 | LF | $9,100 |
3 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.449 | 0.320 | 44.9% | 11.5% | 21.9% | 44.0% | OF | $4,800 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,400 |
4 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.246 | 36.8% | 7.0% | 17.0% | 46.0% | SS | $3,900 | SS | $4,600 | SS | $9,200 |
5 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.207 | 35.8% | 8.2% | 24.0% | 44.5% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $8,400 |
6 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.402 | 0.205 | 36.2% | 11.3% | 21.4% | 40.3% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,600 |
7 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.173 | 29.9% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 36.9% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,800 |
8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.249 | 0.112 | 25.7% | 3.0% | 26.9% | 41.2% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,600 | C | $5,000 |
9 | Jackie Bradley | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.185 | 42.5% | 9.6% | 22.6% | 38.8% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,200 | CF | $8,300 |
Team Averages | 0.371 | 0.211 | 36.2% | 9.1% | 19.4% | 40.5% |
Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland
Stackability – GREEN
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET
NY Yankees | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
Luis Severino | Jake Faria | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYY-165 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.300 | 0.312 | 37.1% | 0.67 | 29.1% | 41.2% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.340 | 0.376 | 32.4% | 0.73 | 19.8% | 39.4% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.279 | 0.306 | 33.1% | 1.10 | 27.4% | 40.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.311 | 0.371 | 37.1% | 1.42 | 16.1% | 31.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Luis Severino | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $10,000 | Salary: | $11,100 | Salary: | $21,300 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 3 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 31 | 3.25 | 2.98 | 29.4% | 6.5% | 50.6% | 28.5% | 19.4% | 97.6 | 13.0% | |
2018 | 31 | 3.24 | 3.38 | 28.1% | 5.7% | 40.9% | 34.8% | 19.5% | 97.6 | 12.3% | |
L14 | 2 | 3.36 | 1.42 | 22.9% | 2.1% | 41.7% | 38.9% | 25.0% | 97.6 | 10.9% |
Severino got his start pushed back a day, so he’ll take the mound tonight. In 31 starts this season, he owns a 3.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of only 6%. By all accounts, he is an elite pitcher, even if he has stumbled a bit over the last two months. The Yankees would love nothing more than to see him come out and dominate in what could be his last start before the playoffs. The issue for me is a matchup against the Rays, who have been very productive at the plate recently. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .324 with a 37% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Severino makes sense in tournaments, but only if you are building multiple lineups.
Jake Faria | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $12,000 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 27 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 14 | 4.26 | 3.43 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 38.3% | 31.2% | 19.8% | 91.8 | 12.0% | |
2018 | 11 | 5.26 | 5.17 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 34.2% | 35.3% | 15.5% | 91.5 | 8.3% | |
L14 | 0 | 11.46 | 13.50 | 22.2% | 44.4% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 92.7 | 2.1% |
Faria hasn’t thrown more than 40 pitches in any of his last three appearances, so I doubt he’ll be stretched enough to throw a full complement of pitches tonight. Even if that was the case, I’m not sure we’d want to play him against the Yankees. While his numbers in the minors were impressive, he has really struggled at the major league level this season, posting a 5.26 SIERA with a walk rate of 12%.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Faria in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
The Yankees can’t win the division, but they are still battling with the A’s for home-field advantage in the wild card game. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Jake Faria, who has allowed a .370+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, but some of that is negated in this ballpark. If this game was being played in New York, I’d recommend a full stack. With it being played in Tampa Bay, I plan to pick and choose my spots in this lineup.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.154 | 43.8% | 14.4% | 21.4% | 41.3% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,400 |
2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.249 | 47.6% | 12.7% | 31.1% | 45.5% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,200 | RF | $9,400 |
3 | Luke Voit | RIGHT | 0.438 | 0.299 | 41.2% | 13.5% | 28.1% | 36.5% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,500 |
4 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.206 | 37.8% | 8.9% | 31.9% | 46.3% | OF | $4,700 | OF | $4,900 | RF | $9,200 |
5 | Miguel Andujar | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.220 | 36.9% | 3.4% | 15.9% | 45.6% | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,600 |
6 | Gleyber Torres | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.169 | 35.5% | 8.3% | 23.1% | 34.4% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $8,300 |
7 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.202 | 35.3% | 10.2% | 25.8% | 46.1% | C | $3,300 | C | $3,800 | C | $7,600 |
8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.099 | 37.1% | 4.1% | 19.3% | 37.6% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,500 |
9 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.296 | 0.143 | 27.8% | 11.4% | 16.2% | 48.2% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,600 |
Team Averages | 0.349 | 0.193 | 38.1% | 9.7% | 23.6% | 42.4% |
Elite Plays – Luke Voit (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Luke Voit (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, Gary Sanchez (DK)
Stackability – YELLOW
Tampa Bay
The Rays have been productive at the plate over the last month of play, but are a tough sell against Luis Severino. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. In a 14-game slate, we don’t have to look far to find a better matchup or a better ballpark for hitters.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.118 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 16.7% | 49.8% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,000 |
2 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.076 | 31.2% | 6.9% | 16.3% | 53.0% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,400 |
3 | Ji-Man Choi | LEFT | 0.392 | 0.261 | 45.8% | 11.1% | 24.7% | 40.3% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
4 | Tommy Pham | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.182 | 47.3% | 10.1% | 25.6% | 49.4% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,500 | CF | $9,000 |
5 | Joey Wendle | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.137 | 36.8% | 5.8% | 17.1% | 46.9% | 3B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,200 |
6 | Brandon Lowe | LEFT | 0.337 | 0.207 | 37.9% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 43.1% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B/OF | $4,000 | 2B | $7,200 |
7 | Austin Meadows | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.123 | 34.9% | 3.6% | 19.6% | 40.7% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,700 |
8 | Jake Bauers | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.205 | 44.0% | 15.2% | 25.7% | 42.6% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | 1B | $7,500 |
9 | Nick Ciuffo | LEFT | 0.231 | 0.182 | 23.5% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 41.2% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,900 |
Team Averages | 0.324 | 0.166 | 36.7% | 9.5% | 21.4% | 45.2% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.