MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 25th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Washington
Article Image Jeff Brigham Article Image Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-370 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.325 30.0% 0.00 18.2% 20.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.265 0.258 26.5% 0.98 31.3% 35.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.406 0.425 50.0% 1.69 16.0% 5.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.240 0.265 32.9% 0.96 38.2% 34.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Brigham
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 3 6.55 5.84 17.2% 15.5% 13.2% 39.5% 18.4% 92.9 8.1%
L14 2 5.71 4.82 19.5% 12.2% 17.9% 35.7% 21.4% 93.4 6.7%

There are 14 games in the main slate tonight. We start with the Marlins and Nationals, two teams with nothing to play for at this point of the season. Brigham has not fared well in his first three starts of the season and I certainly don’t expect that to change tonight. Washington has power from both sides of the plate and they draw a lot of walks, which doesn’t bode well for a pitcher that has struggled with his control.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Brigham in all formats.

Max Scherzer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,400 Salary: $12,800 Salary: $24,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 2.98 2.51 34.4% 7.1% 36.5% 26.5% 19.5% 94.1 15.5%
2018 32 2.72 2.57 34.6% 6.1% 34.9% 29.4% 23.8% 94.4 16.1%
L14 2 2.99 7.36 37.3% 9.8% 19.2% 34.6% 19.2% 94.1 16.5%

Scherzer has been a beast this season, posting a 2.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. Don’t be concerned with his 7.36 ERA over his last two outings, as his advanced numbers in those starts were still elite. He’s clearly the top pitching option on the board tonight, as he takes on a struggling Marlins’ offense at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Miami’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .312 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats, but he certainly costs a pretty penny.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Do you really want to target the Marlins on the road against Max Scherzer, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season? I didn’t think so.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 JT Riddle LEFT 0.312 0.164 32.6% 7.3% 19.1% 47.5% SS $2,100 SS $2,900 SS $5,900
2 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.327 0.124 35.7% 6.6% 19.5% 49.7% 2B $2,700 2B $3,100 2B $5,500
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.372 0.223 38.7% 7.7% 18.7% 40.8% C $2,900 C $3,900 C $7,300
4 Peter O’Brien RIGHT 0.370 0.273 40.9% 10.5% 31.6% 45.5% 1B $2,300 1B $3,100 LF $5,600
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.339 0.114 37.3% 7.9% 19.3% 53.8% 3B $2,300 3B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
6 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.281 0.137 39.4% 3.3% 31.9% 52.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,600 CF $4,900
7 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.316 0.173 32.8% 2.4% 16.9% 43.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 LF $5,500
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.182 0.009 21.4% 3.4% 24.8% 52.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,600
9 Jeff Brigham RIGHT P $5,600 P $6,200 P $12,200
Team Averages 0.312 0.152 34.9% 6.1% 22.7% 48.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

Washington

The Nationals draw one of the best matchups of the slate and have their ace on the mound, which is why they are listed as a -350 favorite. Jeff Brigham has nearly as many walks as strikeouts this season and has allowed a .325 xwOBA to lefties and a .425 xwOBA to righties. Similar to last night’s game, the splits set up well for Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon. The left-handed bats of Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are certainly viable in tournaments, especially if you are looking to employ a low-owned four-man stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Victor Robles RIGHT 0.308 0.207 36.4% 3.1% 25.0% 18.2% OF $2,700 OF $4,300 CF $8,500
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.320 0.143 30.3% 8.6% 20.0% 51.6% SS $4,200 SS $5,400 IF/OF $10,400
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.395 0.260 42.4% 19.0% 24.9% 38.5% OF $4,600 OF $5,100 RF $9,400
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.385 0.194 35.9% 8.5% 12.9% 36.3% 3B $4,200 3B $5,000 3B $9,600
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.383 0.214 34.8% 17.6% 19.8% 51.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 LF $9,400
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.375 0.208 37.6% 6.5% 17.3% 50.3% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.305 0.121 33.6% 7.8% 14.7% 35.7% C $2,200 C $3,400 C $6,700
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.295 0.138 21.6% 9.0% 16.6% 43.2% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,400
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.214 0.040 15.9% 0.0% 17.9% 69.2% P $12,400 P $12,800 P $24,800
Team Averages 0.331 0.169 32.1% 8.9% 18.8% 43.8%

Elite PlaysTrea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP)

Secondary PlaysBryce Harper (Cash), Juan Soto (Cash)

StackabilityYELLOW / GREEN


Houston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Houston Toronto
Article Image Josh James Article Image Sam Gaviglio
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-157 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.318 43.8% 1.35 32.3% 31.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.373 36.6% 1.59 15.4% 42.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.162 0.175 11.1% 0.96 42.4% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.321 30.5% 1.60 23.7% 52.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh James
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 2 2.64 2.81 37.5% 9.4% 41.2% 26.5% 32.4% 97.4 13.2%
L14 1 3.07 2.16 32.4% 8.8% 40.0% 30.0% 25.0% 97.3 16.8%

James is a talented young rookie with plenty of upside. At the Double-A level this season, he posted a strikeout rate of 40%. At the Triple-A level, he posted a strikeout rate of 36%. In his first major league stint, he owns a strikeout rate of 38%. We were worried about a potential pitch count in his last start, but he threw 87 pitches in a dominant outing against the Mariners. Assuming all goes well, we can expect him to throw 90+ pitches tonight against the Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has four batters with a k-rate above 25% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: The price is still affordable on James. I view him as an elite tournament play and a decent SP2 in cash games.

Sam Gaviglio
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,500
Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 25 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 4.96 4.36 15.7% 8.3% 49.4% 31.5% 15.7% 88.6 7.1%
2018 22 4.15 5.18 19.9% 6.6% 47.9% 33.4% 17.7% 87.9 8.9%
L14 2 5.35 4.32 8.1% 5.4% 53.1% 21.9% 28.1% 87.5 4.2%

Gaviglio has been mediocre at best this season, posting a 4.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. The story with him is simple — when he’s facing a right-handed heavy lineup that strikes out a lot, we can target him as a cheap SP2. While the Astros have a right-handed heavy lineup, they don’t meet the second half of the criteria. Their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of only 16.5% against right-handed pitching. With limited upside and a low floor, we can look elsewhere tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gaviglio in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros got off to such a great start last night, but only ended up scoring five runs. They had so many line outs and deep fly-ball outs, but that’s the breaks of playing a volatile sport like baseball. Tonight’s matchup against Sam Gaviglio doesn’t exactly stand out. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .321 xwOBA on a 53% ground ball rate. Almost all of the hitters that we like to target from Houston are right-handed and most of them (with the exception of Alex Bregman) have high ground ball rates. I’m not as high on this offense as I was last night.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.345 0.156 31.9% 10.4% 18.2% 50.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,500 RF $9,100
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.354 0.147 31.9% 9.3% 14.1% 47.9% 2B $4,300 2B $4,600 2B $9,200
3 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.403 0.243 36.7% 14.0% 11.9% 35.1% 3B $4,300 3B/SS $4,900 3B $8,800
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.283 0.123 29.9% 3.4% 10.7% 49.1% 1B $3,700 1B $4,600 1B $9,400
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.340 0.167 37.1% 11.3% 23.8% 43.4% SS $3,200 OF/SS $3,800 IF/OF $7,200
6 Tyler White RIGHT 0.342 0.278 33.9% 8.9% 16.4% 43.1% 1B $3,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,700
7 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.306 0.105 31.2% 11.5% 16.1% 35.7% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 RF $8,200
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.259 0.134 28.4% 3.8% 24.6% 40.2% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,800
9 Tony Kemp LEFT 0.315 0.164 31.5% 11.9% 12.4% 45.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
Team Averages 0.327 0.169 32.5% 9.4% 16.5% 43.3%

Elite PlaysAlex Bregman (GPP), Marwin Gonzalez (DK)

Secondary PlaysAlex Bregman (Cash), Marwin Gonzalez (FD), George Springer, Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick

StackabilityYELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a difficult matchup against Josh James, who currently boasts a 2.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38%. Sure, we are dealing with a small sample size and sure, he’s a young pitcher that is playing on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but I’m buying the hype. Outside of a Billy McKinney (.365 xwOBA against righties and a cheap price point) one-off, I will be avoiding this Blue Jays’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.365 0.193 34.4% 7.2% 25.8% 40.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,400
2 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.398 0.260 40.3% 16.1% 26.9% 34.5% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
3 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.339 0.263 37.0% 5.6% 25.8% 35.0% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 RF $8,100
4 Rowdy Tellez LEFT 0.458 0.472 41.9% 0.0% 13.9% 32.3% 1B $2,600 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
5 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.353 0.194 33.6% 3.7% 12.8% 40.2% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $4,000 SS $7,700
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.349 0.166 33.7% 3.7% 19.0% 34.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
7 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.272 0.061 44.4% 6.9% 30.6% 36.4% SS $2,200 2B/SS $3,200 SS $6,600
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.318 0.128 30.0% 5.1% 18.4% 52.7% 2B $2,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,900
9 Reese McGuire LEFT 0.425 0.176 33.3% 10.5% 10.5% 26.7% C $2,200 C $3,500 C $6,700
Team Averages 0.364 0.213 36.5% 6.5% 20.4% 36.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysBilly McKinney

StackabilityORANGE


Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta NY Mets
Article Image Touki Toussaint Article Image Noah Syndergaard
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-145 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.188 0.293 29.2% 0.00 20.5% 66.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 0.278 22.3% 0.36 22.1% 46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.365 0.353 33.3% 0.71 25.4% 37.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.276 21.8% 0.84 27.0% 52.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Touki Toussaint
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 4 4.97 4.30 23.5% 16.3% 50.0% 31.6% 28.1% 93.4 8.9%
L14 1 5.91 6.75 24.2% 21.2% 25.0% 35.3% 29.4% 93.3 8.5%

Toussaint is making his fifth career major league start. While he has shown some strikeout upside, he has really struggled with his control (16% walk rate). Tonight he faces an underrated Mets’ offense on the road and he comes into the game as a sizable underdog. He’s a tremendous prospect and I’m expecting big things from him in the future, but I will take a wait and see approach until he can improve his command.

Quick Breakdown: For now, avoid Toussaint in all formats.

Noah Syndergaard
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $10,200 Salary: $19,500
Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 7 2.74 2.97 27.4% 2.4% 57.6% 30.2% 16.3% 98.3 13.9%
2018 23 3.54 3.36 24.4% 6.3% 48.7% 22.1% 24.1% 97.5 13.8%
L14 2 4.43 2.45 26.1% 13.0% 42.9% 32.1% 17.9% 97.7 9.8%

Syndergaard hasn’t been his elite self this season. Don’t get me wrong, he has still been very good, posting a 3.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He’s one of the only pitchers in baseball that has a higher soft contact rate than hard contact rate. While he doesn’t have the same strikeout upside as Max Scherzer, we don’t have to pay the same price point. Syndergaard is only $9,500 on FanDuel and $10,200 on DraftKings. He’s certainly viable tonight against the Braves, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .307 with a strikeout rate of 21% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Syndergaard is an elite tournament play tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and draw a difficult matchup against Noah Syndergaard, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA this season. The only real weakness that Syndergaard has is his inability to hold runners. This brings Ronald Acuna (15 stolen bases) and Ender Inciarte (28 stolen bases) into play for tournaments at virtually no ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.386 0.262 47.4% 8.5% 26.3% 41.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 LF $9,400
2 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.305 0.136 32.2% 7.9% 12.6% 42.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,500
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.413 0.182 44.7% 11.2% 17.4% 34.5% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,400
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.385 0.150 41.0% 10.9% 9.0% 42.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,600
5 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.314 0.166 34.9% 10.8% 20.4% 45.8% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.343 0.163 38.1% 4.9% 9.2% 34.6% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,500
7 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.299 0.187 33.2% 6.2% 17.2% 36.2% 2B $3,600 2B $4,000 2B $7,300
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.285 0.155 33.9% 7.9% 22.3% 42.6% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $5,500
9 Touki Toussaint RIGHT 0.035 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 66.7% P $6,400 P $7,500 P $14,900
Team Averages 0.307 0.156 33.9% 7.6% 20.5% 42.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysRonald Acuna (GPP), Ender Inciarte (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE

NY Mets

Touki Toussaint is one of the Braves’ top pitching prospects and has a very bright future ahead of him. While I typically like to pick on young pitchers that are on the road, I’m hesitant to load up on the Mets in a 12-game slate. The fact that they are priced up across the industry (with the exception of Jay Bruce on FanDuel) doesn’t help. Overall, this is a game that I will have very little exposure to outside of Noah Syndergaard.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.287 0.123 26.7% 4.7% 19.0% 49.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,500
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.325 0.139 28.7% 5.4% 10.8% 37.1% 2B $3,800 2B $4,400 2B $8,500
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.346 0.190 36.5% 15.0% 22.7% 40.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 LF $8,600
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.376 0.155 34.2% 12.7% 19.0% 29.2% OF $2,800 1B/OF $4,000 RF $7,200
5 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.376 0.250 36.4% 15.9% 23.5% 41.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 LF $8,900
6 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.264 0.188 33.3% 2.6% 34.5% 34.7% 1B $2,100 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
7 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.338 0.207 43.6% 9.1% 22.3% 33.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
8 Tomas Nido RIGHT 0.244 0.078 34.1% 3.0% 30.3% 50.0% C $2,000 C $3,100 C $5,500
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.153 0.031 23.1% 0.0% 61.8% 45.5% P $9,500 P $10,200 P $19,500
Team Averages 0.301 0.151 33.0% 7.6% 27.1% 40.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysJay Bruce (FD)

StackabilityORANGE


Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Boston
Article Image Jimmy Yacabonis Article Image David Price
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-320 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.406 0.336 31.0% 1.42 16.4% 43.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.309 29.5% 1.29 23.1% 45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.358 32.1% 2.70 24.1% 36.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.328 33.1% 1.20 24.7% 39.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jimmy Yacabonis
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,500
Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank: 27 of 28 Salary Rank: 27 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 6.67 4.35 8.9% 15.6% 48.5% 32.4% 27.9% 95.4 5.3%
2018 5 4.30 6.34 20.8% 8.3% 39.6% 31.6% 19.4% 93.5 10.9%
L14 1 3.70 5.14 24.1% 6.9% 41.2% 16.7% 22.2% 93.4 17.7%

Yacabonis has made five major league starts this season, posting a 4.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that is facing the Red Sox in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. He hasn’t been particularly good against left or right-handed hitters, so he could be in for a very short outing. He offers significantly more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Yacabonis in all formats.

David Price
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,600
Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 11 4.05 3.38 24.0% 7.6% 39.9% 32.9% 20.7% 94.3 11.7%
2018 29 3.80 3.53 24.5% 6.7% 40.0% 32.5% 19.1% 92.7 9.6%
L14 2 4.83 2.92 18.0% 8.0% 32.4% 46.0% 18.9% 93.2 8.7%

Price struggled in his last start against the Yankees, but that’s a trend that has been going on for years. I’m willing to overlook one bad start and look at his season as a whole. In 29 starts, he owns a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. He comes into tonight’s game as a -320 favorite against the Orioles, who may have the worst lineup in baseball. Their projected starters for tonight’s game own an average xwOBA of .270 with a strikeout rate of 27% against southpaws. I’m buying low on Price and will be using him in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Price is my favorite pitcher of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but you actually have to hit the ball for the park to be friendly. This lineup looks absolutely atrocious. They don’t have a single hitter with an xwOBA over .325 against left-handed pitching and eight of their nine projected starters has a k-rate of at least 24%. I can’t wait to play David Price tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.219 0.000 17.4% 15.6% 33.3% 57.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.278 0.216 28.0% 7.5% 30.0% 30.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.315 0.160 41.1% 5.3% 28.9% 53.5% 2B $3,100 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.325 0.108 31.0% 2.5% 9.9% 40.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.277 0.116 22.3% 6.7% 24.2% 67.8% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.307 0.186 30.0% 8.5% 25.5% 44.9% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,600 SS $7,600
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.264 0.096 26.4% 6.3% 26.3% 41.5% 3B $2,500 3B $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
8 Austin Wynns RIGHT 0.281 0.000 22.6% 0.0% 27.9% 51.6% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 John Andreoli RIGHT 0.163 0.000 25.0% 3.7% 37.0% 12.5% OF $2,000 OF $3,600 RF $7,300
Team Averages 0.270 0.098 27.1% 6.2% 27.0% 44.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

Boston

The Red Sox should be able to cruise to a victory tonight against the Orioles. They have the clear edge in pitching and offensively, which should result in a blowout. Granted, anything can happen in baseball, but I don’t see how the Orioles stay competitive here. Jimmy Yacabonis is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .336 xwOBA to lefties and a .358 xwOBA to righties. We know this ballpark favors right-handed power, so the trio of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts stands out in this matchup. You can obviously complete the Boston stack with the left-handed bats of Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, and Mitch Moreland.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.447 0.267 44.6% 11.7% 15.2% 33.4% OF $5,100 OF $6,200 RF $11,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.389 0.185 29.1% 12.1% 13.3% 39.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 LF $9,100
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.449 0.320 44.9% 11.5% 21.9% 44.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 RF $10,400
4 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.372 0.246 36.8% 7.0% 17.0% 46.0% SS $3,900 SS $4,600 SS $9,200
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.328 0.207 35.8% 8.2% 24.0% 44.5% 3B $3,100 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.402 0.205 36.2% 11.3% 21.4% 40.3% 1B $3,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
7 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.324 0.173 29.9% 7.9% 12.4% 36.9% 2B $2,400 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.249 0.112 25.7% 3.0% 26.9% 41.2% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $5,000
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.377 0.185 42.5% 9.6% 22.6% 38.8% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
Team Averages 0.371 0.211 36.2% 9.1% 19.4% 40.5%

Elite PlaysMookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary PlaysAndrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland

StackabilityGREEN


NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Tampa Bay
Article Image Luis Severino Article Image Jake Faria
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-165 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.312 37.1% 0.67 29.1% 41.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.376 32.4% 0.73 19.8% 39.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.306 33.1% 1.10 27.4% 40.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.371 37.1% 1.42 16.1% 31.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Severino
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,300
Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4% 97.6 13.0%
2018 31 3.24 3.38 28.1% 5.7% 40.9% 34.8% 19.5% 97.6 12.3%
L14 2 3.36 1.42 22.9% 2.1% 41.7% 38.9% 25.0% 97.6 10.9%

Severino got his start pushed back a day, so he’ll take the mound tonight. In 31 starts this season, he owns a 3.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of only 6%. By all accounts, he is an elite pitcher, even if he has stumbled a bit over the last two months. The Yankees would love nothing more than to see him come out and dominate in what could be his last start before the playoffs. The issue for me is a matchup against the Rays, who have been very productive at the plate recently. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .324 with a 37% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Severino makes sense in tournaments, but only if you are building multiple lineups.

Jake Faria
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 14 4.26 3.43 23.5% 8.7% 38.3% 31.2% 19.8% 91.8 12.0%
2018 11 5.26 5.17 17.8% 11.9% 34.2% 35.3% 15.5% 91.5 8.3%
L14 0 11.46 13.50 22.2% 44.4% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 92.7 2.1%

Faria hasn’t thrown more than 40 pitches in any of his last three appearances, so I doubt he’ll be stretched enough to throw a full complement of pitches tonight. Even if that was the case, I’m not sure we’d want to play him against the Yankees. While his numbers in the minors were impressive, he has really struggled at the major league level this season, posting a 5.26 SIERA with a walk rate of 12%.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Faria in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees can’t win the division, but they are still battling with the A’s for home-field advantage in the wild card game. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Jake Faria, who has allowed a .370+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, but some of that is negated in this ballpark. If this game was being played in New York, I’d recommend a full stack. With it being played in Tampa Bay, I plan to pick and choose my spots in this lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.359 0.154 43.8% 14.4% 21.4% 41.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 RF $8,400
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.395 0.249 47.6% 12.7% 31.1% 45.5% OF $4,000 OF $5,200 RF $9,400
3 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.438 0.299 41.2% 13.5% 28.1% 36.5% 1B $3,800 1B $4,100 1B $8,500
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.324 0.206 37.8% 8.9% 31.9% 46.3% OF $4,700 OF $4,900 RF $9,200
5 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.354 0.220 36.9% 3.4% 15.9% 45.6% 3B $4,200 3B $4,300 3B $8,600
6 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.352 0.169 35.5% 8.3% 23.1% 34.4% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
7 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.334 0.202 35.3% 10.2% 25.8% 46.1% C $3,300 C $3,800 C $7,600
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.290 0.099 37.1% 4.1% 19.3% 37.6% SS $2,200 SS $3,300 SS $6,500
9 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.296 0.143 27.8% 11.4% 16.2% 48.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 LF $7,600
Team Averages 0.349 0.193 38.1% 9.7% 23.6% 42.4%

Elite PlaysLuke Voit (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP)

Secondary PlaysLuke Voit (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, Gary Sanchez (DK)

StackabilityYELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays have been productive at the plate over the last month of play, but are a tough sell against Luis Severino. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. In a 14-game slate, we don’t have to look far to find a better matchup or a better ballpark for hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.300 0.118 28.7% 9.2% 16.7% 49.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.313 0.076 31.2% 6.9% 16.3% 53.0% 3B $2,800 3B $3,700 3B $7,400
3 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.392 0.261 45.8% 11.1% 24.7% 40.3% 1B $3,600 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
4 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.354 0.182 47.3% 10.1% 25.6% 49.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 CF $9,000
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.328 0.137 36.8% 5.8% 17.1% 46.9% 3B $3,200 2B $4,000 2B $7,200
6 Brandon Lowe LEFT 0.337 0.207 37.9% 12.5% 25.0% 43.1% 2B $3,200 2B/OF $4,000 2B $7,200
7 Austin Meadows LEFT 0.322 0.123 34.9% 3.6% 19.6% 40.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,700
8 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.343 0.205 44.0% 15.2% 25.7% 42.6% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $3,600 1B $7,500
9 Nick Ciuffo LEFT 0.231 0.182 23.5% 11.1% 22.2% 41.2% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.324 0.166 36.7% 9.5% 21.4% 45.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED


Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious