MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-12 01:24:51

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Washington
			Brandon McCarthy							A.J. Cole
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-121							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	0.292	29.2%	6.3%	19.5%	41.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.442	0.408	46.2%	13.8%	18.1%	39.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	0.308	25.6%	8.1%	18.0%	42.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.315	24.1%	9.6%	20.0%	43.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brandon McCarthy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,000
	Salary Rank:		12 of 28	Salary Rank:		13 of 28	Salary Rank:		14 of 28
	2017	16	4.55	3.98	18.8%	7.0%	42.0%	27.7%	22.7%
	2018	2	4.13	3.97	18.8%	8.3%	41.2%	25.7%	22.9%

McCarthy was once a pitcher that we could target with confidence in DFS, but that seems like another lifetime. He finished the 2017 season with a 4.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19%. He’s still good at limiting hard contact, but he doesn’t carry enough upside to warrant consideration in a road start against the Nationals. He checks into the game as a small underdog, which says a lot given who is pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid McCarthy in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
A.J. Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		25 of 28	Salary Rank:		22 of 28	Salary Rank:		24 of 28
	2017	8	5.12	3.81	19.2%	11.8%	44.0%	36.8%	16.8%
	2018	1	5.41	24.55	16.7%	12.5%	13.3%	29.4%	5.9%

It’s safe to say Cole didn’t get off to the start he was hoping for this season. After his first start, he owns an ERA of 24.55. Even if we look back at his numbers from 2017, they were mediocre at best. He doesn’t have great command and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Even though we are dealing with a smaller early slate, we can easily find better options.

Quick Breakdown: Even though he’s favored, Cole is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves don’t have the most potent offense in baseball and have only managed to muster up a single run in the last two games. While that doesn’t inspire confidence, they were facing Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Today’s matchup is much better, especially for the left-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, A.J. Cole has allowed a .408 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.329	0.291	0.113	24.0%	6.3%	13.7%	42.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,300
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.312	0.314	0.164	30.1%	6.5%	16.2%	38.1%	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.429	0.434	0.296	38.9%	15.7%	16.2%	33.3%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,200	1B	$9,600
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.328	0.344	0.108	35.1%	11.3%	16.0%	46.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100	RF	$5,500
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.344	0.332	0.200	30.3%	5.9%	12.9%	36.3%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
6	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.563	0.425	0.381	41.2%	8.3%	20.8%	29.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,600
7	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.277	0.294	0.090	27.2%	10.0%	21.4%	47.2%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,700
8	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.375	0.344	0.089	23.3%	12.3%	20.0%	54.8%	3B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,100	2B	$5,700
9	Brandon McCarthy	RIGHT	0.157	0.200	0.042	16.7%	10.0%	50.0%	50.0%	P	$7,100	P	$6,600	P	$13,000

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, Preston Tucker

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

Brandon McCarthy isn’t as good as he used to be, but he’s still not a great matchup for opponents. Since the start of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are excellent tournament plays, but as a whole, I don’t have as much interest in the Nationals as I do in some of the other offenses available in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.328	0.323	0.242	34.6%	8.2%	23.5%	39.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,500
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.354	0.327	0.191	27.9%	7.5%	18.8%	51.3%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,400
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.378	0.365	0.203	33.0%	13.0%	14.0%	34.6%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,000
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.450	0.432	0.351	35.6%	16.9%	17.2%	37.1%	OF	$5,500	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,800
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.367	0.377	0.247	39.1%	7.0%	23.5%	46.5%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
6	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.351	0.312	0.148	29.6%	4.7%	20.6%	62.0%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.324	0.291	0.208	33.6%	7.3%	32.5%	41.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,700
8	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.280	0.291	0.139	34.2%	10.5%	23.6%	37.4%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	C	$4,800
9	A.J. Cole	RIGHT	0.325	0.281	0.231	22.2%	7.1%	28.6%	55.6%	P	$5,600	P	$5,300	P	$10,400

Elite Plays – Trea Turner (GPP), Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner (Cash), Bryce Harper (Cash), Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Minnesota
			Lance McCullers							Kyle Gibson
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-151							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.263	0.277	26.7%	6.6%	29.1%	59.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.350	0.332	33.5%	8.5%	16.4%	45.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.341	0.300	30.2%	8.9%	25.1%	63.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.344	0.376	35.9%	9.4%	18.8%	55.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lance McCullers
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:		$21,000
	Salary Rank:		5 of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28
	2017	22	3.41	4.25	25.8%	7.8%	61.3%	28.0%	20.7%
	2018	2	1.82	3.48	38.6%	9.1%	69.6%	39.1%	17.4%

McCullers has pitched well in his first two starts of the season, posting a 39% strikeout rate and a 70% ground ball rate. Both of those numbers are unsustainable, but he’s always been good at racking up strikeouts and keeping the ball on the ground. He’s an intriguing play in all formats today against the Twins, who have a few high-strikeout batters in their lineup. I would like McCullers a little more if the game were in Houston, but the fact that he’s pitching on the road at an elevated price point could keep his ownership down.

Quick Breakdown: McCullers is an elite tournament play and I’d even consider him in cash games as well.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Gibson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		16 of 28	Salary Rank:		11 of 28	Salary Rank:		13 of 28
	2017	29	4.67	5.07	17.5%	8.7%	50.8%	35.8%	15.4%
	2018	2	4.63	0.87	19.6%	13.0%	48.4%	16.1%	19.4%

Gibson is not a pitcher that you will see me roster often this season, if at all. He is a low-strikeout pitcher with a high walk rate. Strikeouts are so important in DFS because they make up for runs allowed. When a pitcher has a low strikeout rate, he basically needs a perfect outing to reach value. I’m certainly not expecting a perfect outing from Gibson, as he takes on the Astros in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gibson in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros didn’t have the big outing that I was hoping last night, but we have a chance to go right back to the well today. They draw a favorable matchup against Kyle Gibson, who is another reverse-splits right-handed pitcher. Unlike Jake Odorizzi, Gibson doesn’t have a high strikeout rate or good command. The Astros’ offense has been quiet recently, which should help keep their ownership low.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.359	0.365	0.230	36.4%	8.3%	19.7%	50.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,000
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.329	0.339	0.166	32.8%	8.9%	16.0%	40.2%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,400
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.404	0.371	0.190	28.9%	8.9%	12.5%	46.0%	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,300	2B	$10,200
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.382	0.391	0.246	38.8%	10.8%	20.8%	45.0%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,900	SS	$9,300
5	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.368	0.350	0.190	33.8%	8.9%	12.4%	33.8%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,900
6	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.391	0.342	0.229	34.5%	10.6%	19.7%	44.4%	1B	$3,100	1B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,500
7	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.329	0.322	0.183	32.6%	5.9%	17.2%	34.7%	C	$2,600	C	$3,400	C	$6,500
8	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.323	0.337	0.188	32.7%	9.2%	15.8%	37.6%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	C	$6,400
9	Derek Fisher	LEFT	0.283	0.314	0.160	46.3%	9.5%	34.5%	48.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000	RF	$6,000

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota

The Twins draw a difficult matchup against Lance McCullers. A pitcher with an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate is always tough on opponents. Since the beginning of last season, McCullers has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. The Twins are a full fade in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.346	0.335	0.217	33.5%	10.6%	19.8%	37.7%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,300
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.356	0.402	0.128	41.1%	12.1%	13.1%	49.1%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,000	1B	$6,000
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.355	0.352	0.234	45.7%	10.9%	37.6%	39.7%	3B	$4,000	3B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,200
4	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.373	0.352	0.263	33.0%	7.4%	17.9%	37.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,900
5	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.365	0.379	0.288	39.4%	13.3%	25.1%	33.5%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,000	1B	$5,500
6	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.334	0.336	0.227	34.8%	5.6%	21.5%	32.5%	SS	$3,100	3B	$3,000	SS	$5,500
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.353	0.327	0.213	36.6%	9.7%	16.6%	41.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,700
8	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.292	0.276	0.158	28.0%	5.5%	31.3%	41.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,900
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.308	0.327	0.149	35.1%	12.5%	29.1%	40.8%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Milwaukee at St. Louis – 1:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								St. Louis
			Junior Guerra							Adam Wainwright
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.350	0.356	29.7%	13.6%	20.0%	29.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.346	31.7%	9.9%	16.7%	46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.350	0.372	36.7%	13.8%	22.4%	37.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.323	29.3%	7.4%	18.3%	48.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Junior Guerra
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:			Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$10,900
	Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:		20 of 28	Salary Rank:		21 of 28
	2017	14	5.23	5.12	21.3%	13.7%	33.5%	33.5%	18.5%

Guerra is a better story than he is a pitcher, at least in DFS. He used to be a catcher and is now pitching in the majors. While I always pull for him to play well, he doesn’t offer much in terms of upside. He has a decent strikeout rate, but he finished 2017 with a 5.23 SIERA and a 14% walk rate. He’ll likely check into this game as a sizable underdog against the Cardinals, who really hit right-handed pitching well. Their first five batters all boast a .360+ xwOBA against righties.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Guerra in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Adam Wainwright
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$13,000
	Salary Rank:		19 of 28	Salary Rank:		14 of 28	Salary Rank:		14 of 28
	2017	23	4.70	5.11	17.6%	8.2%	47.2%	30.8%	19.5%
	2018	1	6.13	7.36	15.0%	20.0%	58.3%	23.1%	15.4%

Wainwright is on the tail end of his career. When it comes to DFS, I’d rather fade a guy too early instead of too late, if that makes sense. Similar to Felix Hernandez, I’m not sure how much gas is left in the old tank for Wainwright. He struggled in his first start of the season and his numbers were subpar in 23 starts last season. With at least four left-handed batters in the Brewers’ lineup, Wainwright offers more risk than potential reward.

Quick Breakdown: Wainwright is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers aren’t going to have a high implied run total once this line comes out, but the matchup is still exploitable. Over the last two seasons, Adam Wainwright has allowed a .346 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Eric Thames and Travis Shaw are always intriguing one-off targets against righties, while Eric Sogard and Brett Phillips could offer some nice value at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Eric Sogard	LEFT	0.337	0.341	0.096	27.1%	15.6%	11.8%	38.6%	2B	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,800
2	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.390	0.368	0.295	43.7%	14.9%	27.4%	37.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.337	0.330	0.205	35.5%	7.4%	22.3%	50.2%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,600	LF	$9,200
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.374	0.361	0.249	39.2%	10.6%	21.4%	41.8%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
5	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.369	0.350	0.220	37.4%	11.0%	30.1%	45.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100	RF	$5,800
6	Brett Phillips	LEFT	0.359	0.309	0.192	32.7%	9.2%	33.3%	36.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600	CF	$4,500
7	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.329	0.304	0.175	30.8%	6.2%	20.8%	35.5%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.313	0.290	0.146	31.0%	5.7%	18.6%	51.5%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.000	0.102	0.000	12.5%	0.0%	20.0%	45.5%			P	$5,500	P	$10,900

Elite Plays – Eric Thames (GPP), Travis Shaw (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (Cash), Travis Shaw (Cash), Eric Sogard, Brett Phillips

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals are one of the sneakiest offenses to target in the early slate. Junior Guerra has a high walk rate and has allowed a .355+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Even though this isn’t the best hitter’s park, the Cardinals have plenty of firepower against right-handed pitching. The best part is that they are still dirt cheap across the industry. There isn’t a single hitter in this lineup that is priced over $4,000 on FanDuel or DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.360	0.360	0.238	38.0%	12.8%	22.3%	37.8%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,700
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.396	0.369	0.201	34.7%	12.1%	23.3%	51.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,700
3	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.376	0.388	0.232	42.7%	17.8%	19.6%	25.0%	3B	$3,100	1B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.396	0.373	0.259	39.9%	8.5%	22.5%	45.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,500
5	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.347	0.389	0.155	35.9%	8.6%	18.8%	46.1%	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,700
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.308	0.324	0.141	33.7%	5.3%	14.2%	44.3%	C	$3,200	C	$3,700	C	$7,400
7	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.354	0.347	0.231	36.8%	3.4%	27.9%	31.8%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.328	0.315	0.134	27.4%	9.3%	14.2%	47.0%	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,400
9	Adam Wainwright	RIGHT	0.318	0.253	0.235	25.0%	0.0%	31.7%	45.0%	P	$6,000	P	$6,300	P	$13,000

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Chicago White Sox
			Yonny Chirinos							James Shields
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.177	0.330	16.7%	7.1%	7.1%	41.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.387	0.383	33.7%	11.4%	15.4%	42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.220	0.227	40.0%	0.0%	33.3%	60.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.344	35.0%	8.1%	21.4%	35.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Yonny Chirinos
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,100
	Salary Rank:		21 of 28	Salary Rank:		25 of 28	Salary Rank:		27 of 28

	2018	1	2.87	0.00	21.9%	3.1%	50.0%	27.3%	22.7%

Chirinos has pitched nine innings so far this season and has yet to allow an earned run. He’s never been a high-strikeout pitcher coming up through the minors, but he did post a 3.07 FIP with a walk rate of 4% in his last full season at the Triple-A level. He draws a decent matchup today against the White Sox, who don’t have the best lineup when facing a right-handed pitcher. I’m not sure we need to go this cheap in the early slate, but Chirinos is the preferred pitcher in this game.

Quick Breakdown (Updated): On second glance, Chirinos is the best cheap pitcher in the early slate. If you are looking to load up on Coors, he’s the key to the lock.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Shields
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		23 of 28	Salary Rank:		21 of 28	Salary Rank:		19 of 28
	2017	21	4.94	5.23	20.0%	10.3%	38.2%	33.3%	19.3%
	2018	2	5.82	5.73	2.0%	4.1%	44.4%	42.2%	22.2%

Through two starts this season, Shields has a strikeout rate of 2%. And no, I’m not leaving out a zero. His 4% walk rate is impressive, yet it is twice as high as his strikeout rate. Obviously, that’s going to go up over the course of the season, but he’s not a pitcher that we want to target in DFS. He has a high fly-ball rate and he struggles to contain both left and right-handed hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Even against the Rays, Shields is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays don’t have the best offense in baseball, but as we saw yesterday, that’s not always needed. They draw one of the best matchups on the board, as they take on James Shields in the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. As you can see in the table above, this is a great ballpark for left-handed power. The Rays may not have a ton of power in their lineup, but Joey Wendle and Kevin Kiermaier are both intriguing. If you like stacking against Shields (who doesn’t?), Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, and C.J. Cron are also viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.343	0.339	0.180	27.7%	7.4%	12.5%	41.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,700
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.347	0.302	0.202	36.2%	8.6%	23.7%	42.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,600
3	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.354	0.353	0.227	42.0%	8.5%	29.3%	39.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,700
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.307	0.334	0.162	34.7%	5.5%	25.7%	33.2%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,000	1B	$6,000
5	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.461	0.277	0.235	30.8%	0.0%	23.5%	46.2%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
6	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.321	0.218	0.214	30.4%	3.3%	20.0%	47.8%	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,500	2B	$4,500
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.284	0.332	0.183	32.1%	4.0%	17.8%	52.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,500
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.280	0.295	0.119	36.1%	2.9%	19.4%	49.8%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,400	SS	$5,000
9	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.288	0.296	0.103	30.6%	11.1%	27.2%	50.9%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,700	2B	$5,500

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Joey Wendle

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, C.J. Cron

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

We don’t have a big sample to work with when it comes to Yonny Chirinos. He has only pitched nine innings at the major league level, so he is still an unknown quantity that will be hard to predict moving forward. There are enough exploitable matchups that I probably won’t have a lot of exposure to teh White Sox, even though they are playing at home in a good ballpark. The one exception is Yoan Moncada, who hits right-handed pitching well and has good speed on the bases.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.350	0.373	0.215	44.6%	14.7%	32.2%	42.4%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,300
2	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.353	0.367	0.179	33.9%	5.7%	20.0%	50.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,700
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.358	0.361	0.238	39.3%	4.7%	16.7%	45.3%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,000
4	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.303	0.309	0.252	41.0%	4.7%	39.0%	39.4%	3B	$3,300	1B/3B	$4,900	3B	$9,100
5	Nick Delmonico	LEFT	0.347	0.304	0.202	27.8%	11.9%	18.9%	39.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,200
6	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.334	0.301	0.166	26.1%	6.6%	19.4%	46.7%	3B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,600	2B	$7,500
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.269	0.263	0.142	27.9%	3.0%	28.3%	53.1%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,200
8	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.202	0.207	0.053	20.8%	7.6%	27.0%	46.2%	3B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,800	2B	$5,800
9	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.328	0.323	0.066	18.8%	12.7%	13.1%	43.0%	C	$2,300	C	$2,700	C	$5,900

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Nick Delmonico

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Seattle at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Kansas City
			James Paxton							Danny Duffy
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-137							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.255	0.264	20.6%	5.8%	23.1%	56.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.200	0.253	19.3%	5.9%	23.7%	48.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.274	0.270	32.7%	7.3%	29.0%	40.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.334	32.5%	7.3%	20.5%	36.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Paxton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$20,300
	Salary Rank:		8 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28	Salary Rank:		6 of 28
	2017	24	3.45	2.98	28.3%	6.7%	44.9%	30.3%	18.0%
	2018	2	4.39	7.45	24.4%	11.1%	21.4%	31.0%	20.7%

Paxton was one of my favorite pitchers to target last season until he got hurt. He was consistently underpriced and routinely exceeded value, which is basically all we can ask for from our plays in DFS. After a rough outing against the Indians, he bounced back with a decent performance against the Twins. He’s not on a pitch count of any kind and he gets to face the Royals in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I wouldn’t call Kansas City a high-strikeout offense, but Paxton still offers great upside at his price point.

Quick Breakdown: Paxton is an elite tournament play in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Danny Duffy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:		10 of 28	Salary Rank:		12 of 28	Salary Rank:		12 of 28
	2017	24	4.31	3.81	21.4%	6.7%	39.5%	29.8%	17.8%
	2018	2	4.96	7.45	17.8%	11.1%	28.1%	34.4%	3.1%

Duffy is a pitcher with that has too many red flags at the moment. His velocity has dipped significantly from where it was last season and it has clearly taken a toll on his strikeout rate. In his first two starts this season, he owns a 4.96 SIERA with a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate. He’s an easy fade against the Mariners, who have made quick work of the Royals’ pitchers so far this series.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Duffy in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners draw an exploitable matchup against Danny Duffy, who has really struggled with right-handed hitters throughout his career. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .334 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to righties. Jean Segura is arguably the top shortstop on the board when you factor in price. Mitch Haniger is also intriguing in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.284	0.247	0.041	12.4%	1.0%	12.9%	63.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800	2B	$7,200
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.367	0.371	0.118	38.0%	10.4%	13.9%	48.1%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,500
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.267	0.308	0.098	30.7%	7.0%	15.9%	54.9%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,000
4	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.327	0.341	0.212	26.6%	5.7%	19.0%	44.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,600
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.327	0.304	0.197	28.8%	7.3%	18.8%	34.8%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,600
6	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.343	0.296	0.121	27.9%	5.6%	14.8%	43.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600	LF	$4,700
7	Daniel Vogelbach	LEFT	0.175	0.248	0.000	50.0%	11.1%	22.2%	50.0%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,800	1B	$5,700
8	Mike Marjama	RIGHT	0.990	0.952	1.500	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,100	C	$3,900
9	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.184	0.240	0.041	20.7%	7.4%	21.0%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,600	SS	$4,700

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger

Secondary Plays – Guillermo Heredia

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City

The Royals aren’t on my radar in the early slate. I have a ton of respect for James Paxton and will have more exposure to him than I will to the Royals. It seems like he is starting to find some form and if it’s anything like what we saw in the first half of 2017, big improvements are coming.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.341	0.361	0.022	17.3%	13.6%	16.4%	51.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,800
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.335	0.336	0.192	32.4%	5.7%	14.3%	37.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,600
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.313	0.313	0.190	29.7%	3.5%	15.3%	41.6%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
4	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.275	0.239	0.123	22.0%	6.6%	26.2%	43.9%	1B	$2,300	3B	$3,000	3B	$5,700
5	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.226	0.328	0.175	42.3%	12.8%	31.9%	30.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	RF	$6,000
6	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.261	0.344	0.050	29.4%	0.0%	14.3%	35.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,400
7	Cam Gallagher	RIGHT	0.219	0.597	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	C	$2,300	C	$2,500	C	$4,500
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.322	0.292	0.152	31.9%	4.7%	15.4%	40.5%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,500
9	Drew Butera	RIGHT	0.255	0.282	0.102	36.8%	9.1%	21.8%	21.1%	C	$2,300	C	$2,500	C	$4,600

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 11th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, Preston Tucker

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner (GPP), Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner (Cash), Bryce Harper (Cash), Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Milwaukee at St. Louis – 1:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Eric Thames (GPP), Travis Shaw (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (Cash), Travis Shaw (Cash), Eric Sogard, Brett Phillips

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Joey Wendle

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, C.J. Cron

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Nick Delmonico

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Seattle at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger

Secondary Plays – Guillermo Heredia

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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