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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-27 00:52:06

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 12:10 PM ET

Baltimore Tampa Bay
Article Image Ubaldo Jimenez Article Image Alex Cobb
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -135 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.399 0.337 32.9% 11.4% 21.7% 43.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.333 35.5% 8.4% 16.1% 41.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.333 33.3% 10.6% 17.3% 50.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.319 35.2% 4.5% 15.1% 51.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 15 4.91 7.19 18.7% 10.4% 44.9% 36.4% 17.2%
L30 5 4.49 7.00 20.5% 8.2% 44.7% 39.5% 19.8%

We have five early games on the schedule today, but this one isn’t included in the early-only slates on FanDuel, DraftKings, or FantasyDraft. It is, however, included in the all-day slate, so we will cover it quickly. Jimenez is one of the best pitchers in baseball to stack against. He has a high walk rate, he allows a lot of hard contact, and he is one of the worst at holding runners. He should not be on your radar in any format, even though the Rays’ offense has been struggling recently.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ubaldo in all formats.

Alex Cobb
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.50 8.59 15.4% 6.7% 52.5% 29.6% 17.3%
2017 20 4.75 3.57 15.6% 6.1% 46.0% 36.5% 14.6%
L30 5 4.85 2.39 13.0% 4.3% 46.9% 29.0% 18.4%

Cobb hasn’t been the same since he had Tommy John surgery in 2015. He used to have an elite strikeout rate, but that hasn’t eclipsed 16% in each of the last two seasons. He does have an above-average ground ball rate, but he has allowed a lot of hard contact this season. The good news is that he gets to face a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense. The bad news is that he is overpriced across the industry and has limited upside.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options in the all-day slate. Cobb is an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are small underdogs today, but their matchup against Alex Cobb is one that we can exploit. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a 35%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. I won’t end up with a lot of exposure to the Orioles in the all-day slate, but Chris Davis stands out as an excellent one-off target. Manny Machado is also viable on DraftKings at a discounted price point of $3,900.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.337 0.315 0.192 31.4% 3.8% 17.8% 45.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.315 0.346 0.187 36.8% 9.7% 19.3% 41.7% 3B $3,600 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.370 0.310 0.225 31.0% 3.8% 20.5% 40.4% 2B $3,600 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.320 0.334 0.184 31.8% 8.7% 22.0% 42.5% OF $3,700 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.326 0.325 0.280 44.8% 12.0% 38.0% 31.6% 1B $3,500 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.399 0.347 0.247 33.6% 6.5% 24.9% 52.1% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Seth Smith LEFT 0.335 0.350 0.190 35.0% 8.4% 21.9% 43.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.303 0.313 0.166 32.7% 6.0% 26.3% 42.5% C $2,700 C $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.288 0.334 0.059 27.9% 7.8% 10.4% 36.7% SS $2,700 3B/SS $2,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw one of my favorite matchups on the board. It’s just a shame that this game isn’t included in the early-only or in the main slate. Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed a .333+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. He also has a high walk rate and gives up a ton of stolen bases. Even in the all-day format, a Rays’ stack is firmly in play here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.391 0.389 0.292 39.9% 12.9% 28.3% 41.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.363 0.322 0.234 36.7% 6.1% 22.5% 38.5% OF $2,800 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.335 0.311 0.175 31.7% 4.6% 14.2% 44.0% 3B $3,300 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.385 0.400 0.321 43.7% 15.6% 22.7% 31.5% 1B $3,300 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.215 0.321 0.150 41.9% 4.5% 22.7% 45.2% C $2,500 C $3,200 N/A N/A
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.303 0.319 0.107 35.6% 20.8% 27.4% 55.2% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.316 0.314 0.163 45.8% 6.0% 32.3% 46.8% SS $2,600 SS $2,600 N/A N/A
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.338 0.266 0.119 21.4% 11.3% 16.2% 54.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.255 0.275 0.045 26.4% 1.8% 17.0% 53.3% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza, Evan Longoria, Wilson Ramos, Mallex Smith

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Cincinnati NY Yankees
Article Image Homer Bailey Article Image Luis Severino
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-220 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.399 0.377 39.8% 10.3% 17.1% 46.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.320 29.5% 6.6% 22.7% 46.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.410 0.341 19.8% 6.3% 21.1% 43.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.283 28.8% 7.1% 27.2% 51.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Homer Bailey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 3.55 6.65 24.3% 6.3% 45.2% 30.7% 16.0%
2017 6 5.19 8.56 14.9% 9.7% 44.8% 28.3% 16.2%
L30 5 5.04 6.31 15.1% 8.4% 44.8% 27.0% 16.9%

Bailey has been dreadful this season, posting a 5.19 SIERA (8.56 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 15%. The sledding isn’t going to get any easier today, as he takes on a Yankees’ offense that is ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. As a large underdog pitching in a hitter-friendly American League ballpark, Bailey is one of the easiest fades in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bailey in all formats.

Luis Severino
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $11,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 4.06 5.83 21.2% 8.0% 45.1% 29.4% 20.6%
2017 19 3.33 3.21 27.6% 6.1% 51.6% 29.0% 19.6%
L30 5 3.11 2.97 29.5% 4.3% 39.8% 31.5% 16.9%

The early four game slate is awfully intriguing. There are four viable pitching targets and they are all at different price points. Severino is certainly one of the four names on that list, as he is having a breakout season for the Yankees. In 19 starts, he owns a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He keeps the ball on the ground and he limits hard contact against him. The matchup against the Reds isn’t exactly ideal, but the strikeout upside is there and he’s a huge favorite at home that should get plenty of run support.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is viable in all formats, it just depends on what price point you are looking for at pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they get to use the DH in this series. While those are both positives, their matchup is a big negative. In addition to an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate, Luis Severino has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Joey Votto is always viable as a one-off target (especially with the short porch in right), but he’s the only Reds’ hitter on my radar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.267 0.080 17.8% 8.8% 19.9% 45.4% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.386 0.321 0.237 29.8% 13.4% 17.1% 41.5% SS $3,400 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.410 0.422 0.268 35.7% 16.7% 11.7% 35.7% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.333 0.288 0.233 33.7% 5.3% 27.6% 31.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.439 0.363 0.328 41.7% 6.6% 20.8% 40.7% 2B $3,400 2B/OF $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.337 0.335 0.195 29.5% 10.7% 23.0% 44.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.333 0.365 0.254 39.4% 10.1% 22.5% 44.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.323 0.332 0.135 35.1% 7.9% 14.7% 41.5% C $2,100 C $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.255 0.267 0.079 19.9% 1.1% 14.8% 41.4% SS $2,000 2B/SS $2,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees are huge favorites against Homer Bailey and the Reds. It’s hard to find a better matchup than Bailey, as he has been in as bad of form as any pitcher over his last five starts. Bailey might not be as bad as his ERA would suggest, but he gives up a lot of home runs and he’s facing a Yankees’ offense that is loaded with talent. A stack is viable in all formats and the one through six batters are all viable as cash game targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.360 0.340 0.216 36.7% 11.5% 19.0% 39.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.348 0.336 0.300 53.3% 2.4% 26.2% 36.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.443 0.446 0.337 48.5% 15.0% 31.0% 39.1% OF $5,000 OF $5,700 N/A N/A
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.360 0.367 0.209 37.1% 8.2% 24.5% 42.7% C $3,300 C $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.339 0.355 0.238 32.1% 10.6% 24.8% 46.2% OF $2,700 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.381 0.279 0.240 25.5% 4.3% 13.5% 40.4% SS $3,500 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.350 0.331 0.128 28.0% 13.2% 23.3% 42.8% 1B $3,100 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.312 0.346 0.191 29.0% 13.5% 21.7% 38.5% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 N/A N/A
9 Tyler Wade LEFT 0.282 0.338 0.136 31.3% 15.4% 23.1% 37.5% OF $2,200 SS $3,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Clint Frazier, Matt Holliday, Didi Gregorius, Todd Frazier

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Atlanta Arizona
Article Image Aaron Blair Article Image Patrick Corbin
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-185 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.432 0.410 31.6% 13.8% 10.1% 42.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.299 34.5% 8.3% 29.7% 56.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.303 26.5% 7.3% 18.2% 37.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.366 0.347 36.5% 8.1% 16.8% 51.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Blair
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $8,800
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 15 5.49 7.59 14.2% 10.5% 39.7% 29.0% 21.0%

Blair is making his first start of the season. He is hoping that he can have better luck this year, because last season was ugly. In 15 starts, he posted a 5.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of 10%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and he has to face one of the best offenses in baseball. Not only that, but he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.

Quick Breakdown: Blair is one of the easiest fades in the slate.

Patrick Corbin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.38 5.15 18.7% 9.4% 53.8% 38.5% 15.2%
2017 20 4.01 4.43 21.2% 6.3% 50.7% 32.9% 18.1%
L30 5 3.26 3.10 28.5% 6.5% 48.8% 26.3% 26.3%

Corbin got off to a very slow start this season, but comes into this game in excellent form. In his last five outings, he has a 3.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate 29%. During that stretch, he has induced a lot of ground balls and soft contact. He does struggle with right-handed hitters, but outside of Matt Kemp and Tyler Flowers, who are we scared of in this Braves’ lineup? The Braves have a high ground ball rate as a team, which should help negate some of the positives for hitters in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Corbin is viable as an SP2 in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Chase Field, but they come into the game with a fairly low implied run total. With Patrick Corbin holding lefties to a .299 xwOBA in the last two seasons, we can rule out Freddie Freeman and Matt Adams. That basically leaves us with Matt Kemp and Tyler Flowers as one-off targets. The rest of the Braves can be avoided against the red-hot Corbin.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.345 0.257 0.114 20.5% 6.3% 12.5% 61.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.328 0.340 0.133 22.6% 6.0% 11.9% 44.2% 2B $2,800 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.363 0.345 0.259 37.1% 6.8% 32.2% 42.9% 3B $3,800 1B/3B $5,100 1B $10,000
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.284 0.389 0.109 34.6% 13.5% 16.2% 55.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.280 0.274 0.060 24.6% 8.5% 16.0% 62.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.328 0.358 0.091 20.0% 13.2% 21.1% 64.0% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,400
7 Matt Adams LEFT 0.239 0.255 0.229 26.5% 2.0% 28.6% 47.1% 1B $2,700 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
8 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.483 0.364 0.295 34.3% 2.2% 20.0% 40.0% SS $2,600 3B $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Aaron Blair RIGHT P $5,800 P $4,500 P $8,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have a massive implied run total today. I’m not a betting man, but I would still pound the over if I was. Their matchup against Aaron Blair is one of the best in the slate. He really struggled in the majors last season and he hasn’t looked great in the minors this season. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he has allowed a .410 xwOBA to lefties. The Diamondbacks’ stack is expensive, but it’s viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.370 0.325 0.171 36.4% 6.8% 15.3% 54.4% OF $3,600 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.386 0.340 0.190 44.4% 7.4% 19.6% 44.4% OF $3,800 OF $5,500 CF $10,800
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.420 0.390 0.307 37.0% 14.9% 21.8% 40.0% 3B $3,900 3B $5,400 3B $10,400
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.435 0.404 0.289 45.7% 14.8% 22.5% 44.2% 1B $4,400 1B $5,400 1B $10,400
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.358 0.388 0.262 46.3% 11.9% 25.8% 45.5% OF $4,000 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.363 0.333 0.189 40.9% 14.0% 19.7% 41.7% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,700 2B $7,200
7 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.325 0.279 0.183 32.9% 4.6% 21.6% 44.3% SS $2,500 OF/SS $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
8 Chris Herrmann LEFT 0.284 0.324 0.197 40.4% 13.1% 25.5% 46.8% C $2,100 C/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
9 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.151 0.204 0.000 18.8% 12.9% 35.5% 73.3% P $7,900 P $7,900 P $15,300

Elite Plays – David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET

Boston Seattle
Article Image Chris Sale Article Image Andrew Moore
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-200 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.254 0.252 25.2% 2.9% 31.0% 51.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.353 29.6% 2.0% 8.2% 18.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.277 32.2% 5.2% 29.5% 37.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.347 0.374 39.7% 2.7% 12.0% 35.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,800 Salary: $13,400 Salary: $26,100
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.43 3.34 25.7% 5.0% 41.2% 31.7% 17.0%
2017 20 2.51 2.48 36.4% 4.7% 36.7% 30.1% 17.9%
L30 5 2.26 1.32 40.6% 5.3% 30.0% 32.9% 27.1%

I didn’t think it was possible, but Sale has managed to improve on his already ridiculous season. In his last five starts, he has a 2.26 SIERA with a massive strikeout rate of 41%. He has basically been unhittable this season and he continues to be an excellent DFS play, even at his premium price point. The Mariners have hit lefties fairly well in the last few months, but historically, their hitters aren’t great against southpaws outside of Nelson Cruz and Danny Valencia. This lineup doesn’t scare me one bit, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is the top pitching option on the board and is an elite play in all formats.

Andrew Moore
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.82 5.70 10.5% 2.4% 28.3% 35.5% 12.2%
L30 4 6.02 6.26 9.2% 3.1% 28.6% 36.5% 12.9%

Moore has a unique delivery, but it hasn’t done much to help him at the major league level. In his first five starts, he has a 5.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11%. He is one of the few pitchers in baseball with a higher hard contact rate than ground ball rate. While that may not be sustainable in the long run, it’s certainly a red flag. When you add in the matchup against the low strikeout Red Sox, there is no reason for him to be on your radar.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Moore in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox aren’t playing in the best ballpark for offensive production, but they draw an excellent matchup against Andrew Moore, who has not been able to find his footing at the major league level. I don’t have the Red Sox as my top stack in the early slate, but they should get overlooked, which is always a plus when it comes to ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.349 0.336 0.205 37.7% 10.0% 9.4% 41.4% OF $4,000 OF $5,000 RF $9,600
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.337 0.342 0.171 38.4% 10.8% 16.4% 36.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
3 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.332 0.313 0.099 27.6% 8.8% 9.8% 48.6% 2B $3,400 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.329 0.352 0.176 35.8% 7.9% 19.0% 43.5% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
5 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.313 0.338 0.172 39.0% 9.8% 23.3% 39.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.333 0.270 0.147 31.9% 7.5% 18.8% 49.1% SS $3,000 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.327 0.378 0.191 42.2% 10.4% 23.3% 39.5% 1B $2,400 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.270 0.282 0.121 36.0% 6.9% 23.6% 37.5% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Rafael Devers LEFT 3B $2,400 3B $2,800 3B $5,600

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle

The Mariners draw the worst matchup on the board. They have to face Chris Sale, who is in unreal form. In addition to one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA in the last two seasons. I typically have interest in Nelson Cruz anytime he faces a lefty, but I’ll be taking a pass on all of the Mariners’ bats today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.337 0.369 0.092 40.4% 9.5% 12.2% 33.9% SS $2,700 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
2 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.391 0.346 0.225 33.9% 12.8% 18.1% 41.5% 1B $2,700 1B $2,900 3B $5,700
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.292 0.318 0.125 29.9% 7.3% 13.8% 52.6% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.384 0.465 0.171 38.1% 20.4% 13.6% 42.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.326 0.314 0.190 27.9% 7.1% 19.6% 32.1% 3B $2,600 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
6 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.295 0.342 0.136 20.0% 6.4% 19.1% 42.9% OF $2,400 OF $2,700 LF $5,200
7 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.374 0.287 0.182 39.7% 2.4% 25.6% 46.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
8 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.322 0.270 0.095 24.7% 6.7% 12.2% 41.8% OF $2,100 OF $2,500 LF $4,800
9 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.347 0.355 0.255 41.2% 8.3% 35.0% 23.5% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Pittsburgh San Francisco
Article Image Trevor Williams Article Image Jeff Samardzija
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -133 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.294 26.5% 6.8% 13.7% 46.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.322 29.7% 5.6% 22.7% 40.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.333 35.8% 6.5% 20.0% 48.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.278 31.0% 4.5% 22.1% 50.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Williams
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 14 4.56 4.74 16.8% 6.4% 47.6% 31.2% 25.2%
L30 5 4.01 4.03 18.0% 5.7% 59.1% 33.7% 25.0%

Williams is a pitcher that has a low ceiling to begin with. When you add in a matchup against a low-strikeout offense, he’s a tough sell in DFS at any price point. Granted, he’s extremely cheap on DraftKings, but I would much rather find the extra salary for Jeff Samardzija and Patrick Corbin. This may be a good ballpark and the Giants may struggle against right-handed pitching, but Williams doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Williams in all formats.

Jeff Samardzija
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.13 3.81 20.1% 6.5% 46.5% 31.5% 18.1%
2017 20 3.28 5.05 25.9% 2.8% 43.1% 28.5% 22.1%
L30 5 3.69 6.07 20.3% 1.6% 47.5% 28.3% 20.2%

Samardzija has one of the biggest gaps in baseball between his ERA and his SIERA. We talk about regression all the time in this article and we’ve seen it come to fruition on a number of pitchers throughout the course of the season. We are still waiting for Samardzija’s results to improve because he continues to have a low SIERA and a high strikeout rate. I’m not jumping ship just yet, especially at a price of only $7,600 on DraftKings. The Pirates don’t strikeout often against right-handed pitching, but Samardzija is one of the best values in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Samardzija is an elite SP2 in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are facing a talented pitcher in a bad ballpark for hitters. That doesn’t exactly bode well for their offense. Even though he’s been a bit unlucky this season, Jeff Samardzija has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Even in this shorter slate, I will be fading the Pirates as a whole.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.335 0.295 0.111 26.5% 5.7% 21.4% 55.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.332 0.329 0.141 32.4% 4.9% 15.6% 35.3% 2B $3,500 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.356 0.359 0.183 33.8% 10.8% 17.2% 40.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,700 RF $9,200
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.348 0.340 0.240 34.8% 10.2% 20.4% 52.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.323 0.349 0.110 30.4% 12.5% 19.4% 55.4% 3B $3,400 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.306 0.323 0.109 30.2% 8.8% 12.0% 51.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.348 0.350 0.145 34.1% 10.9% 17.9% 48.2% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.332 0.312 0.154 27.0% 10.1% 15.3% 46.7% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.102 0.175 0.000 11.8% 3.7% 33.3% 50.0% P $6,400 P $6,300 P $12,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

The Giants have struggled against right-handed pitching all season, but they did come alive against Jameson Taillon last night. They draw a better matchup today, as they square off against Trevor Williams. Over the last two seasons, Williams has allowed a .333 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. There are better offenses to target in the early slate, but you can look to the Giants if you need a cheap hitter or two.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.356 0.342 0.197 28.0% 6.6% 12.1% 37.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.321 0.263 0.103 24.7% 3.6% 9.4% 53.9% 3B $3,400 3B/OF $3,700 3B $7,200
3 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.366 0.398 0.236 39.2% 16.7% 22.4% 26.5% 1B $3,100 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.353 0.370 0.131 32.0% 9.4% 11.8% 41.8% C $3,200 1B/C $4,000 C $7,600
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.264 0.296 0.143 33.9% 5.2% 21.5% 48.6% SS $2,800 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
6 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.265 0.270 0.071 29.8% 5.3% 22.6% 62.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.312 0.295 0.149 25.7% 6.7% 10.8% 43.8% 2B $2,500 2B $2,800 2B $5,400
8 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.296 0.277 0.067 26.4% 9.6% 22.1% 50.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
9 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.177 0.206 0.143 23.8% 0.0% 30.0% 57.9% P $8,600 P $7,600 P $15,000

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Brandon Belt

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious