MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 27th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-27 18:57:17

Oakland at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Oakland					Texas
			Sean Manaea					Yu Darvish
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX -160					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.250	2	25.8%	6.5%	SP vs. Left	0.321	0	27.7%	14.9%
SP vs. Right	0.350	9	17.4%	6.5%	SP vs. Right	0.182	1	40.5%	8.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Sean Manaea
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		25.1	FPPG:		12.9
					Pitcher Rating:		48.3	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	4	112.3	3.58	2.35	21.5%	3.3%	11.8%	44.3%	34.1%	27.5%
2016	13	92.7	4.18	4.61	19.5%	5.9%	11.1%	41.6%	36.7%	32.0%

Manaea got off to a rough start in the big leagues, but has settled down since. Over his last four starts, he has a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.5%. He has limited the hard contact against him recently, but is still a risky fantasy option at this point. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Rangers, who are ranked 13th in team wOBA (.329) and ninth in team strikeout rate (20.1%) against southpaws this season. There is more risk than potential reward here.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Yu Darvish
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$11,300
					FPPG:		38.4	FPPG:		21.5
					Pitcher Rating:		80.9	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	2	90.5	2.40	3.48	43.5%	10.9%	16.6%	33.3%	33.3%	33.3%
2016	5	85.2	2.98	3.12	35.5%	10.0%	13.9%	41.7%	31.7%	35.0%

Darvish has been terrific in his first five starts back, after being out for nearly two years. He has a 2.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35.5% and a walk rate of 10%. His pitch count has been the biggest issue, but he has thrown at least 90 pitches in each of his last two starts. I expect him to throw in the 90-95 pitch range again tonight, which is more than enough for him to reach value with his strikeout potential. The A’s don’t strikeout often as a whole, but I don’t factor that in nearly as much when it comes to elite pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s have a relatively high team total tonight considering their matchup against Yu Darvish. I’m not nearly as bullish on their offense tonight, as Darvish is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball. In his career, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.299 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.141 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (4 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.15 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.277	0.131	0.199	OF	$3,300	OF	$2,800
2	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.369	0.189	0.357	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800
3	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.350	0.257	0.386	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,400
4	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.346	0.209	0.315	1B	$3,600	3B	$3,100
5	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.346	0.194	0.355	C	$3,200	C	$3,400
6	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.287	0.105	0.263	2B	$3,200	2B	$2,500
7	Jake Smolinski	RIGHT	0.249	0.111	0.464	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
8	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.320	0.106	0.346	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,700
9	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.426	0.360	0.313	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.185	0.333	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Texas

The Rangers are sizable favorites tonight in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. Naturally, they are going to have one of the highest run projections on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Sean Manaea, who has allowed a .350 wOBA and nine home runs to right-handed hitters this season.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.329 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.155 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.1% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.74 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.85 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.312	0.101	0.426	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600
2	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.228	0.000	0.175	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$3,600
3	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.371	0.194	0.316	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,200
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.391	0.226	0.407	3B	$3,500	3B	$5,100
5	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.337	0.199	0.342	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,400
6	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.344	0.202	0.262	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$3,900
7	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.346	0.153	0.302	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,800
8	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.256	0.043	0.383	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400
9	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.361	0.253	0.321	C	$2,700	C	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.152	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Delino Deshields (FD), Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Delino Deshields (DK), Jurickson Profar, Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Milwaukee
			Archie Bradley					Jimmy Nelson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -138					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.337	6	19.3%	14.8%	SP vs. Left	0.355	19	17.0%	11.1%
SP vs. Right	0.329	7	20.1%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.276	11	20.0%	7.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Archie Bradley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		28.4	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		40.6	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	5	104.6	4.83	4.34	18.2%	10.6%	6.9%	45.1%	29.7%	42.4%
2016	13	101.4	4.52	4.44	22.1%	11.5%	8.0%	45.4%	31.5%	36.7%
2015	8	80.5	5.28	5.80	14.3%	13.7%	5.9%	58.0%	27.7%	38.6%

Bradley has a strikeout rate north of 20% on the season, but that’s about all he has going for him. He currently owns a 4.52 SIERA with a walk rate of 11.5% and a hard hit contact rate of 36.7%. He draws a decent matchup against the Brewers, but this is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night. Bradley is too risky to use tonight, even against the strikeout-happy Brewers.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jimmy Nelson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		27.6	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		44.7	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	4	91.3	5.02	2.63	14.8%	10.2%	6.9%	51.9%	27.3%	32.5%
2016	20	92.9	4.94	3.40	16.7%	10.3%	6.8%	48.3%	31.4%	34.5%
2015	30	93.0	4.09	4.11	19.7%	8.6%	10.0%	50.6%	29.4%	28.9%

Nelson may have a 3.40 ERA on the season, but his SIERA suggests some serious regression. We’ve seen the same thing with Jordan Zimmermann and Martin Perez and both have regressed in a big way. I expect that to be the case for Nelson in the second half of the season. His 4.94 SIERA and 16.7% strikeout rate just aren’t going to cut it in DFS. He does pitch better at home, but I will be avoiding both pitchers in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have a slightly above-average team total tonight, as they square off against Jimmy Nelson in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. Nelson has been tough on right-handed hitters, but he has allowed a .355 wOBA and 19 home runs to lefties over the last two seasons.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.5% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.43 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.28 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.278	0.072	0.336	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900
2	Phil Gosselin	RIGHT	0.342	0.148	0.340	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$3,200
3	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.302	0.101	0.395	2B	$3,700	2B	$5,000
4	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.392	0.230	0.350	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,700
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.291	0.164	0.215	C	$3,000	C	$3,300
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.291	0.127	0.391	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.272	0.092	0.088	OF	$2,700	OF/SS	$3,000
8	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.317	0.166	0.263	OF	$3,100	3B/OF	$3,700
9	Archie Bradley	RIGHT	0.035	0.000	0.000	P	$6,500	P	$7,700
	Team Averages	—	0.280	0.122	0.264	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Michael Bourn, Phil Gosselin, Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee

The Brewers hung a big number on the scoreboard last night and could be at it again tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against Archie Bradley, who gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. Over the last two seasons, Bradley has allowed a .337 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.2% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.02 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.98 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.72 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.334	0.123	0.381	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,700
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.306	0.133	0.281	2B	$3,800	2B	$3,600
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.358	0.200	0.454	OF	$4,600	OF	$4,800
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.350	0.164	0.350	C	$3,700	C	$4,700
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.319	0.242	0.171	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,200
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.309	0.183	0.380	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
7	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.254	0.048	0.399	3B	$3,400	3B/OF	$3,500
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.248	0.061	0.215	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600
9	Jimmy Nelson	RIGHT	0.113	0.014	0.220	P	$7,000	P	$7,300
	Team Averages	—	0.288	0.130	0.317	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Minnesota – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					Minnesota
			Mike Foltynewicz					Tyler Duffey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN -170					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.387	16	18.6%	7.4%	SP vs. Left	0.302	5	23.1%	5.5%
SP vs. Right	0.334	13	21.5%	7.0%	SP vs. Right	0.369	14	15.9%	7.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Foltynewicz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		28.0	FPPG:		14.7
					Pitcher Rating:		45.9	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	5	94.6	4.10	4.13	23.3%	8.6%	11.4%	43.6%	41.0%	29.5%
2016	11	95.1	4.11	3.79	21.6%	7.1%	9.9%	41.2%	38.4%	29.1%
2015	15	98.7	4.30	5.71	19.3%	7.3%	8.9%	33.3%	43.5%	32.5%

Foltynewicz has been better than most people realize this season. In 11 starts, he has a 3.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.6%. He gives up a lot of fly balls, but his hard hit contact rate is under 30% on the season. He checks into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog on the road. While the Twins do strikeout at a high rate, there are enough reasons to avoid Foltynewicz.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Duffey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$5,100
					FPPG:		22.9	FPPG:		10.4
					Pitcher Rating:		49.7	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	4	88.8	4.59	6.10	14.0%	8.6%	6.2%	58.0%	21.7%	32.9%
2016	16	93.3	4.10	5.71	17.9%	5.6%	7.8%	49.5%	27.3%	32.8%
2015	10	90.8	3.83	3.10	21.9%	8.3%	9.8%	49.7%	30.9%	26.6%

Duffey comes into tonight’s game in bad form, posting a 4.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 8.6%. He is a large favorite tonight against the Braves in a favorable matchup, which gives him some fantasy appeal. He is priced under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which means we could potentially pick up a win for a very cheap price. I wouldn’t use him in cash games, but feel free to fire him up in a tournament lineup or two.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. They also average the fewest runs in baseball. It’s hard to get excited about any of their hitters, even in a favorable matchup against Tyler Duffey. The only hitter that I am looking at here is Freddie Freeman, who has a .371 wOBA and a .237 ISO against right-handed pitching in the last two seasons.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.284 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.118 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.0% (10 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.69 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.38 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.84 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.313	0.113	0.316	2B	$3,300	2B/OF	$3,700
2	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.287	0.136	0.142	2B	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,300
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.371	0.237	0.274	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,300
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.339	0.104	0.393	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
5	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.293	0.154	0.403	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,100
6	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.294	0.167	0.142	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
7	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.334	0.115	0.368	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400
8	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.309	0.125	0.340	C	$2,500	C	$2,900
9	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.279	0.070	0.305	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.136	0.298	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

Minnesota

The Twins have the eighth highest team total on the board. After they let a lot of people down last night, I expect their ownership to be very low. I am willing to hop back on the Twins, as they draw a nice matchup against Mike Foltynewicz. Over the last two seasons, Foltynewicz has allowed a .387 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .334 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.157 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.0% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.96 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.44 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.66 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.330	0.124	0.130	SS	$3,800	3B/SS	$3,600
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.321	0.113	0.237	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,800
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.364	0.238	0.332	OF	$3,000	3B/OF	$3,800
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.316	0.194	0.350	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,800
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.348	0.290	0.363	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500
6	Kennys Vargas	SWITCH	0.276	0.161	0.293	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500
7	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.302	0.186	0.389	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.275	0.085	0.238	C	$2,600	C	$2,900
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.277	0.140	0.187	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.170	0.280	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Yankees					Houston
			Masahiro Tanaka					Lance McCullers
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -132					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.285	17	22.3%	4.1%	SP vs. Left	0.289	4	30.8%	8.7%
SP vs. Right	0.279	19	21.0%	4.9%	SP vs. Right	0.319	8	21.8%	11.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Masahiro Tanaka
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,700
					FPPG:		32.7	FPPG:		17.8
					Pitcher Rating:		57.7	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	95.0	3.83	2.97	22.7%	5.5%	11.0%	35.9%	35.9%	34.8%
2016	20	94.6	3.84	3.00	19.9%	4.8%	11.2%	47.9%	29.3%	33.5%
2015	24	95.4	3.36	3.51	22.8%	4.4%	11.4%	47.0%	33.8%	31.1%

Tanaka has quietly been pitching well this season, especially over the last month of play. In his last five starts, he has a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.7%. He doesn’t walk many batters and he induces a ground ball rate just under 50%. He draws a boom or bust matchup tonight against the Astros, who are ranked tenth in team wOBA (.323), but 27th in team strikeout rate (23.8%) against right-handed pitching. Tanaka is in play, but he’s best suited for GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Lance McCullers
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$10,100
					FPPG:		38.6	FPPG:		20.0
					Pitcher Rating:		72.4	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	4	100.0	3.38	2.22	34.3%	13.1%	12.3%	57.7%	25.0%	23.1%
2016	12	98.6	3.88	3.33	29.3%	13.7%	12.4%	57.2%	22.0%	25.7%
2015	22	95.9	3.57	3.22	24.8%	8.3%	9.8%	46.5%	31.8%	28.9%

McCullers is coming off of another solid outing. In 12 starts this year, he owns a 3.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.3%. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked 22nd in team wOBA (.305) and 21st in team ISO (.151) against right-handed pitching this season. The Yankees don’t strikeout all that often, but McCullers should still be able to get close to a K per inning.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have really been struggling offensively. They average the ninth fewest runs per game and they have the fourth lowest implied team total tonight. Lance McCullers can be a little wild at times, but he boasts an elite strikeout rate. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.151 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.11 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.31 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.327	0.138	0.308	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.306	0.102	0.149	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.356	0.211	0.423	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,500
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.328	0.205	0.184	C	$3,300	C	$3,200
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.349	0.278	0.241	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,500
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.316	0.147	0.325	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,100
7	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.322	0.199	0.209	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$2,500
8	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.289	0.129	0.314	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,800
9	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.308	0.122	0.319	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.170	0.275	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Houston

The Astros are typically an offense that we can target when they are playing at home, but they draw a tough matchup tonight against Masahiro Tanaka. In addition to an above-average strikeout rate, Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.323 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.174 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.8% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.61 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.69 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.340	0.175	0.383	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300
2	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.299	0.137	0.327	1B	$3,300	1B/3B	$3,400
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.354	0.164	0.573	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,500
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.371	0.229	0.451	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,900
5	Alex Bregman	RIGHT			0.000			SS	$3,600
6	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.318	0.226	0.416	C	$2,800	C	$3,200
7	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.328	0.229	0.464	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,700
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.301	0.144	0.223	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,700
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.327	0.195	0.334	C	$2,500	C	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.187	0.352	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					Kansas City
			Matt Shoemaker					Danny Duffy
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KC -110					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.305	16	20.8%	6.2%	SP vs. Left	0.245	0	27.4%	5.9%
SP vs. Right	0.336	21	23.9%	5.0%	SP vs. Right	0.334	27	20.1%	8.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Shoemaker
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		31.2	FPPG:		17.0
					Pitcher Rating:		52.8	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	99.8	3.67	2.87	23.7%	4.6%	13.0%	34.1%	40.9%	26.1%
2016	19	94.7	3.59	3.99	24.2%	4.8%	13.7%	36.8%	38.0%	30.8%
2015	24	87.0	3.98	4.46	20.4%	6.2%	9.1%	39.2%	42.4%	30.9%

Shoemaker picked up a loss in his last start, but he pitched well against the Astros. He has been in great form for the better part of two months. Overall, he currently owns a 3.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.2% and a walk rate of only 4.8%. He draws an intriguing matchup against the Royals, who aren’t particularly effective against right-handed pitchers. They also average the fourth fewest pitches per plate appearance. I love Shoemaker in tournaments here.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Duffy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		19.7	FPPG:		10.9
					Pitcher Rating:		52.2	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	5	104.6	3.42	2.75	24.1%	2.8%	9.0%	38.9%	41.1%	33.3%
2016	13	108.6	3.22	3.14	27.7%	5.3%	13.3%	35.6%	44.4%	32.4%
2015	24	98.3	4.63	4.08	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	38.8%	36.5%	29.5%

I’m a bit surprised that the over/under for this game is set at 8.5 runs. Both of these pitchers have been dominant recently and both standout as nice plays in DFS. In 13 starts this season, Duffy owns a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.7%. He draws a decent matchup against the Angels, although they are one of the toughest teams to strikeout in the majors. I slightly prefer Matt Shoemaker, but both pitchers are interesting GPP targets.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels draw a difficult matchup tonight against Danny Duffy, who is having a career season. I expect this game to be low scoring, so I will be avoiding both offenses. The one exception is Mike Trout, who owns a .414 wOBA and a .249 ISO against left-handed pitching in the last two seasons.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.335 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.161 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 15.5% (1 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.85 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.58 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.369	0.124	0.300	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,500
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.317	0.160	0.321	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.414	0.249	0.362	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,600
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.336	0.251	0.425	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,700
5	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.348	0.288	0.408	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,000
6	Daniel Nava	SWITCH	0.292	0.029	0.211	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,400
7	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.278	0.071	0.362	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900
8	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.567	0.500	0.392	C	$2,000	C	$2,600
9	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.275	0.062	0.175	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.355	0.193	0.328	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Kansas City

The Royals are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They draw a difficult matchup against Matt Shoemaker and they are facing him in a pitcher’s park. I will be avoiding the Royals’ offense in both cash games and GPPs.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.129 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (14 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.76 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.98 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.270	0.061	0.249	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,900
2	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.326	0.153	0.420	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,300
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.367	0.170	0.248	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,100
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.354	0.218	0.302	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$2,800
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.330	0.197	0.254	C	$3,300	C	$3,200
6	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.330	0.168	0.299	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200
7	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.307	0.142	0.288	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,700
8	Raul Mondesi	SWITCH						SS	$2,700
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.296	0.122	0.316	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.154	0.297	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 27th - Page Three

Oakland at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Delino Deshields (FD), Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Delino Deshields (DK), Jurickson Profar, Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Michael Bourn, Phil Gosselin, Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Minnesota – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

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