MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-30 02:09:03

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Boston at Tampa Bay – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Boston					Tampa Bay
			David Price					Matt Moore
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -165					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.291	7	20.4%	3.4%	SP vs. Left	0.329	7	15.8%	6.0%
SP vs. Right	0.281	24	27.1%	6.1%	SP vs. Right	0.354	18	21.1%	8.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
David Price
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$10,700
					FPPG:		35.8	FPPG:		18.8
					Pitcher Rating:		85.4	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	6	100.0	3.89	3.63	20.9%	5.5%	10.5%	45.8%	32.2%	31.9%
2016	16	103.0	3.39	4.68	25.8%	5.6%	12.5%	43.8%	32.0%	34.0%
2015	32	105.9	3.27	2.45	25.3%	5.3%	11.9%	40.4%	36.4%	28.2%

Price hasn’t exactly been dominant this season, but he has been trending in the right direction after a rocky start. Through his first 16 starts with the Red Sox, he owns a 3.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.8%. He has given up a bit more hard contact this season, but the strikeout upside is still there. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup today against the Rays in Tampa. While they do strikeout at a high clip, they are also ranked second in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Given the fact that there is a game in Coors Field in the early slate, I expect a lot of people to go cheap at pitcher and load up on the hitters from that game.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Moore
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		27.1	FPPG:		13.7
					Pitcher Rating:		56.9	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	6	104.5	4.14	4.46	21.9%	6.3%	11.2%	33.6%	49.5%	34.5%
2016	15	100.3	4.05	5.04	21.9%	6.8%	11.0%	39.4%	40.5%	34.8%
2015	12	88.0	4.67	5.43	16.6%	8.3%	9.9%	39.2%	38.7%	31.7%

After a nice start to the season, Moore has scuffled over the last couple of months. In 15 starts, he owns a 4.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.9%. The numbers don’t look all that bad on paper, but he has had some terrible fantasy outings recently. He gives up a lot of hard contact and he hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate. Against the Red Sox, he is an easy fade in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox implied team total seems a bit low today. They are the best offense in baseball and they are facing a struggling left-handed pitcher in Matt Moore. Over the last two seasons, Moore has allowed a .329 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .354 wOBA to right-handed hitters. I like the Red Sox a bit more than the Vegas odds.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.344 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.3% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.61 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.337	0.181	0.326	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.341	0.142	0.309	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,600
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.393	0.119	0.309	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,600
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.315	0.196	0.412	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,300
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.340	0.224	0.383	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,800
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.373	0.185	0.393	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200
7	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.341	0.226	0.301	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,100
8	Bryce Brentz	RIGHT	0.580	0.600	0.423	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,500
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.326	0.160	0.221	C	$2,100	C	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.372	0.226	0.342	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – GPP

Tampa Bay

The Rays may be one of the best offenses in baseball when it comes to hitting southpaws, but they come into today’s game with the third lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against David Price, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.348 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.196 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.4% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.11 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.37 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.414	0.300	0.324	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,100
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.248	0.068	0.343	SS	$3,400	SS	$2,900
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.390	0.221	0.306	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,300
4	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.248	0.048	0.324	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.389	0.197		OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
6	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.285	0.047	0.372	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900
7	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.328	0.247	0.110	C	$2,000	C	$2,100
8	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.309	0.228	0.260	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$3,000
9	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.466	0.235	0.208	SS	$2,400	OF/SS	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.342	0.177	0.281	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					Cincinnati
			Kyle Hendricks					Cody Reed
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -210					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.324	15	20.8%	7.0%	SP vs. Left	0.000	0	66.7%	0.0%
SP vs. Right	0.253	9	24.1%	5.5%	SP vs. Right	0.442	3	23.4%	10.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kyle Hendricks
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,500
					FPPG:		31.3	FPPG:		17.5
					Pitcher Rating:		78.0	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	6	97.7	3.58	2.11	25.8%	7.1%	10.4%	46.9%	37.8%	25.7%
2016	14	91.4	3.67	2.76	22.8%	6.7%	9.2%	53.3%	29.1%	25.0%
2015	32	87.3	3.37	3.95	22.6%	5.8%	8.1%	51.3%	26.9%	25.8%

Hendricks continues to pitch well for the Cubs and it’s nice to see that they are loosening the reigns a bit. Over his last five starts, he is averaging 97.7 pitches, which is much higher than his season average of 91.4. The rest of the numbers all check out, as he currently sports a 3.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.8% and a walk rate of 6.7%. While I do like the matchup against the Reds, targeting pitchers in the Great American Ballpark is always a little nerve-wracking.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Cody Reed
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,300
					FPPG:		27.0	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		51.9	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	2	98.0	3.46	6.75	28.3%	9.4%	11.2%	51.5%	27.3%	42.4%
2016	2	98.0	3.46	6.75	28.3%	9.4%	11.2%	51.5%	27.3%	42.4%

Reed will be making his third career start today against the Cubs. His peripherals don’t look nearly as bad as his ERA does in his first two outings and he does boast a 28.3% strikeout rate. If the matchup were a little better, I would consider taking a shot on him today, but I don’t like picking on the Cubs’ offense. Reed is a massive underdog today and he is pitching in a ballpark that yields a ton of home runs.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are a sneaky offense to target today, as most of the attention will go to the hitters in Coors Field. Chicago comes into the game with the third highest team total on the board and as we have seen in the first two games of the series, they like to play in this ballpark. They draw a favorable matchup against rookie Cody Reed, who is a left-handed pitcher making only his third career start.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.343 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.176 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.2% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.28 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.13 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.385	0.170	0.271	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,300
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.364	0.252	0.318	3B	$4,800	3B/OF	$5,400
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.371	0.199	0.513	1B	$4,700	1B	$5,200
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.376	0.000	0.511	C	$3,100	C/OF	$4,200
5	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.436	0.219	0.280	SS	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,800
6	Matt Szczur	RIGHT	0.328	0.242	0.270	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.240	0.126	0.403	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,700
8	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.119	0.056	0.000	P	$9,000	P	$9,500
9	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.253	0.133	0.290	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.155	0.317	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

The Reds haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 26th in team wOBA and 28th in team K%. They have the sixth lowest team total on the board today, as they square off against Kyle Hendricks at home. The one weakness for Hendricks over the last two seasons has been left-handed hitters. During that stretch, he has allowed a .324 wOBA and 15 home runs to lefties.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.31 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.87 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.256	0.065	0.206	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
2	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.405	0.225	0.371	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,400
3	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.306	0.114	0.226	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,900
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.337	0.263	0.398	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,500
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.361	0.347	0.343	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.301	0.159	0.300	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,400
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.215	0.000	0.241	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,100
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.292	0.088	0.237	C	$2,600	C	$2,400
9	Cody Reed	LEFT	0.689	0.000	0.689	P	$6,400	P	$6,300
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.140	0.335	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – NONE

Miami at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Detroit
			Tom Koehler					Daniel Norris
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -132					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.342	18	18.6%	11.4%	SP vs. Left	0.383	5	18.3%	8.5%
SP vs. Right	0.303	10	17.0%	9.6%	SP vs. Right	0.301	7	18.1%	6.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tom Koehler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		28.2	FPPG:		13.4
					Pitcher Rating:		41.9	Pitcher Rank:		26
L30 Days	6	97.0	4.38	3.16	22.4%	10.5%	10.5%	42.9%	32.7%	24.0%
2016	15	95.3	5.00	4.07	19.3%	12.5%	9.3%	44.6%	32.9%	24.3%
2015	31	96.0	4.67	4.08	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%

Koehler is almost always a fade for me in DFS. On the season, he owns a 5.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.3% and a walk rate of 12.5%. Right-handed pitchers typically fare better against the Tigers than left-handed pitchers, but Koehler doesn’t have near enough upside to warrant consideration today. He comes into the game as an underdog and he is pitching on the road in an American League ballpark.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Daniel Norris
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		12.0	FPPG:		6.7
					Pitcher Rating:		53.8	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	1	79.0	3.57	5.40	23.8%	0.0%	6.3%	31.3%	56.3%	31.3%
2016	1	89.0	4.33	4.50	20.0%	4.0%	6.7%	31.6%	57.9%	36.8%
2015	13	79.6	4.45	3.75	17.9%	7.6%	9.2%	39.3%	43.2%	28.7%

Norris has shown some upside in the minor leagues and in a couple of starts at the major league level, but he is still a wildcard at this point. He is listed as a favorite today against the Marlins, but the total for the game is set at 9.5 runs. Vegas expects both of these offenses to have some success here. Given the fact that Archie Bradley is cheap and is in a good spot, there is no reason to look at Norris outside of GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins haven’t been great against left-handed pitching this season, but now that Giancarlo Stanton is out of his slump, I expect their numbers to improve as a whole. The Marlins have the 12th highest team total on the board with a run projections of 4.56. Even though Daniel Norris has had reverse-splits over the last two seasons, I still prefer to target the right-handed hitters in this lineup.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.317 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.149 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.8% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.56 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ichiro Suzuki	LEFT	0.326	0.095	0.386	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.366	0.118	0.319	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.324	0.081	0.322	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,900
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.446	0.275	0.476	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900
5	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.424	0.429	0.429	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300
6	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.308	0.087	0.168	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$2,700
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.262	0.099	0.386	2B	$3,200	2B	$2,900
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.337	0.140	0.241	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,100
9	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.300	0.250	0.256	C	$2,400	C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.344	0.175	0.331	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Martin Prado

Stackability – GPP

Detroit

The Tigers have the sixth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Tom Koehler and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Comerica Park. Koehler has allowed a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters than he has to right-handed hitters, but that doesn’t mean that we need to shy away from the likes of Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.70 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.94 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.335	0.148	0.246	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,000
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.308	0.082	0.311	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.412	0.221	0.379	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.299	0.152	0.364	C	$3,300	1B	$3,800
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.310	0.163	0.299	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,400
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.336	0.197	0.384	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,100
7	Steven Moya	LEFT	0.361	0.240	0.500	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,600
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.249	0.077	0.308	C	$2,600	C	$2,500
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.292	0.060	0.356	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.149	0.350	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – GPP

Toronto at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					Colorado
			Aaron Sanchez					Tyler Anderson
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -145					12.5
SP vs. Left	0.347	16	18.3%	11.9%	SP vs. Left	0.200	0	28.6%	4.8%
SP vs. Right	0.240	2	21.1%	7.1%	SP vs. Right	0.289	0	23.1%	3.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Sanchez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		36.7	FPPG:		19.1
					Pitcher Rating:		47.3	Pitcher Rank:		23
L30 Days	5	103.0	3.22	3.41	25.6%	6.6%	8.4%	54.8%	22.6%	30.1%
2016	15	99.9	3.52	3.33	22.9%	7.9%	8.4%	58.1%	20.1%	29.2%
2015	11	131.7	4.43	3.22	16.1%	11.6%	7.0%	60.6%	21.6%	21.0%

Sanchez is a pitcher that is built to succeed anywhere. He has an above-average strikeout rate and he induces an elite ground ball rate. If you aren’t striking batters out in Coors Field, you want to keep it on the ground. While in theory, he should fare better than most pitchers do in Coors, I don’t want to take a chance on him in a game that features a total of 12.5 runs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Anderson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		23.0	FPPG:		13.3
					Pitcher Rating:		51.7	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	3	96.3	2.75	2.55	24.7%	4.1%	11.4%	62.0%	18.0%	28.9%
2016	3	96.3	2.74	2.55	24.7%	4.1%	11.4%	62.0%	18.0%	28.9%

Anderson has looked very good in his first three major league starts, posting a 2.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.7%. He may also have the element of surprise in his favor, as the Blue Jays have never faced him before. The problem is the ballpark. As we all know, targeting pitchers in Coors Field is not a winning strategy over the long run (and rarely is it a winning short term strategy either). Keep your eye on Anderson moving forward, but avoid him today against the Blue Jays.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the highest team total on the board today. They put up 14 runs in Coors Field last night and will look to have another big outing today against rookie Tyler Anderson. Since Anderson is only making his fourth career major league start, it’s hard to trust any of his splits due to the small sample size. However, he is left-handed so I will be targeting all of the right-handed hitters in this Blue Jays’ lineup.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.318 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.164 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.9% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.65 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 6.51 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.379	0.119	0.351	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.324	0.167	0.502	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,700
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.428	0.287	0.569	3B	$5,500	3B	$5,500
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.385	0.282	0.476	1B	$5,600	1B	$5,300
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.428	0.329	0.371	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.359	0.205	0.349	C	$3,400	C	$4,100
7	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.342	0.146	0.465	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,600
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.298	0.102	0.300	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800
9	Aaron Sanchez	RIGHT				P	$8,000	P	$6,400
	Team Averages	—	0.368	0.205	0.423	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado

The Rockies may be underdogs today, but as we all know, that doesn’t mean much in Coors Field. They still have the second highest team total on the board. I generally don’t like to target hitters against elite ground ball pitchers, but Aaron Sanchez has allowed a .347 wOBA and 16 home runs to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. He has been very tough on righties though, so this could be a good spot to fade the right-handed batters in the Rockies’ lineup.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.348 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.201 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.34 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.99 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.365	0.194	0.425	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,400
2	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.371	0.305	0.475	SS	$3,600	SS	$5,000
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.388	0.308	0.412	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,100
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.411	0.299	0.466	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,300
5	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.313	0.194	0.313	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
6	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.338	0.185	0.387	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,500
7	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.353	0.182	0.390	C	$2,900	C	$3,400
8	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.298	0.128	0.387	2B	$3,400	1B/2B	$3,300
9	Tyler Anderson	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,100	P	$7,500
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.199	0.362	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn, Nick Hundley, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Houston at LA Angels – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Houston					LA Angels
			Dallas Keuchel					Jered Weaver
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -155					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.229	5	23.9%	3.8%	SP vs. Left	0.346	22	13.4%	6.0%
SP vs. Right	0.297	25	22.4%	6.7%	SP vs. Right	0.341	21	13.4%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dallas Keuchel
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		27.6	FPPG:		13.4
					Pitcher Rating:		73.7	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	6	100.5	2.87	4.42	22.9%	3.2%	8.5%	61.7%	22.6%	33.9%
2016	16	103.1	3.68	5.35	20.5%	7.1%	9.3%	58.4%	21.8%	31.4%
2015	33	105.8	2.84	2.48	23.7%	5.6%	10.3%	61.7%	19.6%	21.3%

Keuchel may have a 5.35 ERA on the season, but his peripheral statistics show that he has been much better. He has improved his command over the last month of play, he is still producing an elite ground ball rate, and he still has a strikeout rate above 20%. He draws a fairly difficult matchup today against the Angels. While they aren’t the most explosive offense, they do have the lowest strikeout rate of any team against left-handed pitching this season. The good news is that Keuchel is cheap enough that he doesn’t need a ton of strikeouts to pay off his salary.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jered Weaver
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,000
					FPPG:		22.5	FPPG:		9.9
					Pitcher Rating:		34.7	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	6	96.0	5.44	5.11	12.2%	6.4%	6.3%	33.9%	47.6%	35.2%
2016	15	93.3	5.26	5.24	13.3%	5.7%	8.2%	31.0%	46.7%	35.4%
2015	26	94.2	4.88	4.64	13.5%	4.9%	8.3%	34.4%	46.5%	30.2%

Weaver is not the type of pitcher that we are looking to target in DFS. In 15 starts this season, he has a 5.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.3%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Do you know what happens when those two things mix? A lot of home runs. In fact, Weaver has allowed 43 home runs in his last 41 starts. He should be avoided today against the Astros.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have the eighth highest team total on the board today, but they may have the best matchup if you took away ballpark factors. Over the last two seasons, Weaver has allowed a .346 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .341 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Plus, as I mentioned above, he is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of home runs.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.323 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.174 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.3% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.43 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.82 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.343	0.178	0.316	OF	$4,700	OF	$4,800
2	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.296	0.127	0.376	1B	$3,600	1B/3B	$4,000
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.350	0.164	0.453	2B	$4,400	2B	$4,900
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.368	0.221	0.442	SS	$4,500	SS	$4,800
5	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.330	0.212	0.430	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,100
6	A.J. Reed	LEFT	0.172	0.000	0.172	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,700
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.299	0.142	0.378	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,500
8	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.344	0.215	0.460	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,800
9	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.319	0.223	0.374	C	$3,700	C	$3,900
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.165	0.378	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Colby Rasmus, A.J. Reed

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Carlos Gomez, Luis Valbuena

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels

Like the Rockies, the Angels have to face an elite ground ball pitcher. Unlike the Rockies, they don’t get to play in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Over the last two seasons, Dallas Keuchel has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. Outside of Mike Trout, there isn’t a lot to like in this Angels’ lineup.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.320 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.153 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 16.5% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.29 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.286	0.068	0.426	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,200
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.313	0.159	0.350	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.410	0.248	0.410	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.335	0.265	0.315	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.283	0.132	0.385	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,300
6	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.311	0.235	0.210	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,400
7	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.591	0.583	0.292	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
8	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.255	0.054	0.282	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,300
9	Daniel Nava	SWITCH	0.292	0.029	0.193	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.342	0.197	0.318	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 29th

Boston at Tampa Bay – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – GPP

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – NONE

Miami at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Martin Prado

Stackability – GPP

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – GPP

Toronto at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn, Nick Hundley, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Houston at LA Angels – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Colby Rasmus, A.J. Reed

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Carlos Gomez, Luis Valbuena

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

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