Week 17, In Which We "Week 17"
Welcome! – to Week 17…
…the weirdest weekend of the NFL DFS season.
This week, there are plenty of teams that have nothing to play for. There are a few playoff teams that have nothing to play for. And there are some teams that are pretending they have something to play for, even though they do not.
One of the greatest keys to success in Week 17 is having a firm handle on A) What the situation is for each team, and B) How these teams are likely to approach their games as a result.
In order to help you along both of these paths, we will be using this article to break down the unique elements presented to each team, in each game.
Ravens at Bengals
RAVENS:
This is likely the final game in the (fill-in-the-blank with your adjective of choice, depending on your feelings toward the guy…) career of Steve Smith Sr. This means that the Ravens – who have nothing to play for – are likely to try to funnel passes his way. Outside of this single element, all else on this team should be as normal.
Should you target Steve Smith? I have a tough time doing so, as the Bengals allow the second-fewest targets in the NFL to wide receivers, and allow top-three target counts to both running backs and tight ends. This is the same matchup in which DeAndre Hopkins bombed at high ownership last week, on only six targets, as the Bengals simply do too strong a job versus wide receivers.
BENGALS:
A.J. Green is out. Tyler Eifert is out. Jeremy Hill is expected to be out. This leaves us with a backfield that consists of Rex Burkhead and friends, and it leaves us with a group of pass catchers that pretty much begins and ends with Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd.
Should you target Bengals’ “next men up”? I still have a tough time jumping on board with Burkhead myself, as the Ravens are elite against the run, and the Bengals are likely to give some work to Cedric Peerman as well. With that said, the Ravens have shown cracks lately in the run game, and they rank 24th in DVOA covering running backs out of the backfield. There is definitely a case to be made for Burkhead – and I am continuing to keep my mind open here. The pass catchers are easier. With the Ravens erasing tight ends, and with stud Ravens corner Jimmy Smith set to miss, targets are going to be filtered to Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd in this spot. LaFell should see double-digit looks, and he is a strong bet for Week 17 production.
Jaguars at Colts
JAGUARS:
Editor’s Note: Chris Ivory has been ruled OUT for Week 17.
The Jaguars have nothing to play for, but Doug Marrone – who happens to be a good NFL coach – is set to put Week 2 of his audition tape together, as he hunts for another head coaching gig. Last week, Marrone seemed to have his team better-prepared than Gus Bradley had managed to have them all season, and he got more creative/aggressive on offense to help Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson look more like the 2015 versions of themselves. This week, T.J. Yeldon is out and Chris Ivory is hampered, but otherwise, all should be fairly normal on this team.
Should you target Jaguars? I believe you should. If reports somehow emerge by Sunday that Chris Ivory is truly over his hamstring injury (which is highly unlikely – but pay attention, just in case), he becomes a strong play against the poor Colts run defense. And either way, Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson are in good position to shred once more.
COLTS:
Chuck Pagano seems to think this is a “big game” for the Colts, because it’s important for them to get to an 8-8 record. How are things in bizarro world, Chuck? The Colts will be missing Donte Moncrief, and Frank Gore is 37 yards away from a 1,000-yard season.
Should you target Colts? I’m fine staying away from Gore; the Colts should be able to get him to 1,000 yards, but as always, his upside is limited. I do have some slight interest in T.Y. Hilton; the matchup could not be much tougher than it is, but with no Moncrief, Hilton is going to be heavily targeted. He makes sense in large-field tourneys for the upside he carries.
Patriots at Dolphins
PATRIOTS:
Editor’s Note: Malcolm Mitchell has been ruled OUT for Week 17.
The Patriots are a win away from clinching the number one seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This was the case in this same spot last year, and the Patriots lost…but there is a genuinely strong chance they did not actually want to win that game anyway (it certainly seemed that they did not want to win it), as losing in 2015 ensured that they would not face the Steelers until the AFC Championship (which became pointless once Antonio Brown got knocked out of the Wild Card game and was forced to miss the second round). In any case, expect max effort from the Patriots – but also, expect them to go easy on Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman where they can, in order to keep these banged-up guys fresh for the playoffs. With Malcolm Mitchell potentially set to miss as well, this could open opportunities for Michael Floyd.
Should you target Michael Floyd? This is a tough one for me. We’ve seen wide receivers spend two years in this system and not quite manage to pick it up, and Floyd’s track record does not suggest he is the kind of player who could pick up this system in a couple short weeks. Still, Byron Maxwell is set to miss this game in the Dolphins’ secondary, and it is not inconceivable that the Pats draw up some plays that are designed to go deep to Floyd. He’s a boom/bust tourney option, but he certainly has “boom” upside in this spot. Dion Lewis and Chris Hogan are also guys we could look to here, as other pieces on this team are required to pick up the slack from Edelman, Bennett, and Mitchell. LeGarrette Blount could be heavily relied on as well.
DOLPHINS:
The Dolphins are in the playoffs, and will be on the road the first weekend, but they could still improve to the #5 seed with a win and a Chiefs loss (which would send Miami to Houston in the first round, instead of forcing them to go to Pittsburgh). The Dolphins will be playing to win – with Matt Moore at quarterback.
Should you target Dolphins? I don’t like the spot, against the number one scoring defense in the NFL (one that, furthermore, has allowed the fewest running back rushing touchdowns on the season, and ranks fifth in DVOA against the run). But if you like the spot, it should be business as usual for the Dolphins.
Bears at Vikings
BEARS:
There are a few records the Bears are chasing for Jordan Howard, though that should not really change the approach for the Bears this week from what it has been for the last couple months; Howard is the centerpiece of this offense, and that will remain the case this week. Otherwise, all should function as normal for the Bears – or…for what has passed as “normal” the last several weeks.
Should you target Bears? If you like the spot, you absolutely should. The Vikings are mediocre against the run, and while they are elite defending the passing game outside the numbers, they rank dead last in DVOA defending the middle of the field. The middle of the field is where Cameron Meredith does most of his work.
VIKINGS:
The Vikings have nothing to play for, and they seem unlikely to play Stefon Diggs (who has been laboring through a hip injury for weeks now). This will sharpen the offensive focus on this team – with most of the pass game targets going to Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, and Adam Thielen.
Should you target the Vikings’ pass game? I like the spot quite a bit, for all three guys listed above. McKinnon has basically zero touchdown upside, but he should see six or more targets, and he should be able to pick up 60 or 70 yards on the ground. Rudolph is one of the most heavily- and reliably-used tight ends in the NFL, and that won’t change this week. And Thielen is no blip on the radar; the guy has talent, and while he will not replicate his Week 16 output, he should see enough targets to matter again this week.
Bills at Jets
BILLS:
The Bills have fired Rex Ryan and promoted Anthony Lynn, who will basically be using this week as his audition tape – for the Bills, or for any other jobs that open around the league. The big issue Lynn faces is that he is being forced to run E.J. Manuel out there under center. Other than Manuel, all else should function as normal on the Bills – though that’s a big “other than,” and cannot simply be ignored.
Can you comfortably target Bills? I think Sammy Watkins and Charles Clay can still be targeted in tourneys, as the matchup is just too good to ignore against a dead Jets defense. LeSean McCoy also remains viable, as the Jets’ run D has shown cracks in recent weeks while looking like they no longer really care. Nevertheless, the insertion of Manuel definitely drops expectations in this spot, which means that while you can grab the same ceiling from these guys that you normally could grab, this ceiling comes with a lower floor than if Tyrod Taylor were under center.
JETS:
Editor’s Note: Brandon Marshall has been ruled OUT for Week 17.
The Jets will be starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, as Bryce Petty is injured. They will be without Matt Forte, and are likely to start a hobbled Bilal Powell in his place (Powell returned to practice on Friday and should be good to go). Brandon Marshall and Robby Anderson are also banged up, but it’s tough to have much interest in them even if they go.
What do we do with the Jets? I plan to stay away myself. If Powell is truly set to see a full workload, I like him plenty – but there are cheaper running backs I like just as much. And while the Bills have been attackable for much of the year, I cannot remember the last time I targeted Jets receivers with Fitzpatrick under center. I’ll pass again.
Cowboys at Eagles
COWBOYS:
The Cowboys have the #1 seed locked up, and have nothing to play for beyond “momentum.” Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett have said the Cowboys will play to win, but reports out of Dallas, as well as the Vegas line (Eagles favored by 4.5), say otherwise. Expectations are that Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant, and Ezekiel Elliott will see only a few series before stepping aside.
Is there anything usable on this offense? It’s tough to justify much in this spot, as you’re basically banking on less than one half of play if you roster the starters, and you’re expecting less than three quarters of play if you roster the backups. With enough value available in other spots that we don’t have to force in something like this, I am perfectly content to stay away.
EAGLES:
Editor’s Note: Jordan Matthews will be INACTIVE for Week 17.
The Eagles have nothing to play for, and they have a banged-up backfield. Nevertheless, they are still going to manage to give us a three-way, headache-inducing rotation in the backfield, with Byron Marshall and Darren Sproles expected to move the ball between the 20s, and with practice squadder Terrell Watson expected to absorb short yardage work.
Are the Eagles usable this week? The Eagles’ backfield is hands-off for me, but I don’t mind the Eagles’ passing game, in what is a solid matchup. If Jordan Matthews (ankle) misses this game, Zach Ertz will be a target monster in one of the best tight end matchups in the NFL. If Matthews plays, the upside on both guys is lowered a bit, but each guy still shapes up as a solid option.
Browns at Steelers
BROWNS:
The Browns have had nothing to play for since Week 6 or 7. This week, they sort of have something to play for…or, to “not play for,” as they’ll lose the Number One pick in the draft with a win and a 49ers loss. The only other thing the Browns have to play for is “getting Terrelle Pryor to 1,000 receiving yards” – which would require 87 yards for him to get there.
Can we target Browns? Pryor is a tough one, as the Browns have talked openly about wanting to get him to the 1,000 yard mark, but Robert Griffin has shown zero chemistry on the field with Pryor. I’m probably comfortable passing here, but I would not blame you for going the other direction, as Pryor and RGIII do battle with Steelers backups. I do like Isaiah Crowell, in a game in which the Browns should be able to keep things close. He’ll go overlooked, and he offers 100-yard, two-touchdown upside.
STEELERS:
The Steelers have the #3 seed locked up, and they are expected to treat this week a lot like a bye for their top players. Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and even Ladarius Green are all going to sit this week, which opens up a number of possibilities on this offense. The Steelers should also rest some defensive starters, which should keep this game closer than it would otherwise have been.
What do we do with the Steelers? Landry Jones is hands-off for me, but the Steelers are still going to run their offense in this game, in one of the best matchups an NFL team can have. This makes Eli Rogers an elite weapon in DFS, as he should soak up somewhere close to double-digit targets, and it even makes Sammie Coates worthy of a tourney flier, as the Steelers could draw up a couple deep shots to him. The one thing that’s not clear yet is this backfield. DeAngelo Williams is Bell’s primary backup, but he has played only one snap since Week 9, he is a valuable piece of this offense, and he is 33 years old. It seems likely that he gets the start this week…but it also seems likely that Fitzgerald Toussaint will soak up a bunch of field time as well. Currently, I am leaning toward Toussaint if rostering one of the two, but I am keeping my eye out for more clarity by Sunday, as either guy would be a lock-and-load play if set to see all the snaps.
Panthers at Buccaneers
PANTHERS:
The Panthers have nothing to play for, and they are banged up across the offense – with Devin Funchess on I.R., Kelvin Benjamin looking sluggish for weeks, Greg Olsen likely to play limited snaps, Cam Newton still struggling through injuries, and Jonathan Stewart perhaps set to sit.
My assessment of the Panthers? This is an ugly spot to look for offense, against a Bucs defense that has shown signs over the last month or two of being elite. The Bucs still technically have something to play for, so I expect max effort on that side of the ball; unless Stewart sits completely (in which case, Cameron Artis-Payne would become a viable DFS target, as he would be in line for 20 touches), this offense is a stay-away spot for me.
BUCCANEERS:
If a bunch of positive things happen for the Bucs…including a tie in the Redskins-Giants game, the Bucs can still make the playoffs with a win. That’s not going to happen, but the fact that there is a glimmer of hope should mean that this team comes to play this weekend. Doug Martin is in rehab and Cameron Brate and Charles Sims are on I.R., which limits the options on this offense, but there are a couple things we can zero in on in this spot.
A couple things to zero in on? Firstly, Mike Evans is set to see double-digit looks for the first time in a month, as Brate is no longer around to force the Bucs into a more balanced approach. It’s still a tough spot, against what has become one of the stingier pass defenses in the NFL, but Evans is at least worth a look. Secondly, Jacquizz Rodgers should see 25 or more touches this week. The matchup is extremely difficult, but that’s the sort of workload that should not be ignored; Jacquizz deserves serious attention this week.
Texans at Titans
TEXANS:
The Texans have locked up the #4 seed, and they cannot move up or down. Technically, this means they have nothing to play for, but considering that Tom Savage has had less than two games to work with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, this is a great spot for the Texans to iron out their wrinkles, against one of the most generous pass defenses in the NFL. With Lamar Miller set to miss this week, the likelihood of the Texans taking to the air is increased.
How to approach the Texans? After Hopkins disappointed last week at high ownership (in one of the toughest wide receiver matchups in the NFL), I am excited to jump on board this week (in one of the best wide receiver matchups in the NFL). You could also look to Alfred Blue (who has a tough matchup, but should see workhorse usage), and you could look to Will Fuller if you expect the Texans to get him heavily involved as well. The Texans’ main purpose in this game should be to work on their passing attack, which makes this something we should look to target ourselves.
TITANS:
The Titans are going to be without Marcus Mariota this week – which means Matt Cassel, in a tough matchup for passing games. The only other “Week 17 element” of note on the Titans is that they could, conceivably, look to get Derrick Henry a few more touches than normal, as they continue to prepare him for a larger 2017 role.
Knock knock? Anything to like on the Titans? I plan to stay away from the Titans completely, myself, as they should have a hard time moving the ball or putting up points with Cassel under center.
Saints at Falcons
SAINTS:
The Saints have nothing to play for, but that will not stop them from exerting max effort in a division game in which they have an opportunity to play the role of spoiler. This is, obviously, one of the top games to target on the weekend, and the Saints should be firmly in your crosshairs.
What to like on the Saints? Just about everything. Mark Ingram has become a 70% player again in recent weeks (in terms of snap count), and while the best way to attack the Falcons is through the air with running backs, Ingram can do damage on the ground, and he should get a few catches as well. Drew Brees is a top option this week in this spot, and you could feel comfortable targeting Michael Thomas in cash games and tourneys, while targeting Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead in tourneys.
FALCONS:
The Falcons have plenty to play for, as they lock up a first-round bye with a win. Taylor Gabriel is out for the Falcons, and Julio Jones is expected to be a full-go. While the Falcons spread the wealth in their offense (and are sure to give plenty of attention to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman), this is a great spot for Julio – and possibly even for Aldrick Robinson.
How should we target the Falcons? Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and the running backs are all elite plays in this spot. It’s as simple as that. If Aldrick Robinson ascends to the starting lineup this week, with Gabriel out, he also becomes a deep-tourney option, as the Saints will obviously look to remove Julio from the game, which could open some deep shots for Aldrick.
Giants at Redskins
GIANTS:
The Giants are locked into the #5 seed, with no way to move up or down. They have nothing to play for, and while they have said they plan to play their starters, they have failed to specify for how long they will play their starters. Given that the Giants rank third in the NFL in points allowed per game…and that the Redskins are nevertheless 7.5-point favorites in Vegas, with a Vegas-implied total of 26.25, the expectation is obviously that the Giants will not play starters for long.
How to handle the Giants this week? Much like the Cowboys’ situation, I’ll be staying away. The starters should see a few series, and the backups should see the remainder of the game from there. That makes it pretty difficult to get too excited about either side of this game.
REDSKINS:
The Redskins are in the playoffs with a win. They are out of the playoffs with a loss. It doesn’t get much simpler than that – and this is a great setup for them, as the Giants are not expected to play starters for much of the game. This also makes this a great spot for DFS, as most people will be looking to load up their roster with sexier games. The Redskins are tied with the (far more popular) Packers and Seahawks for the third-highest Vegas-implied total on the weekend, making this a strong place to look in tourneys, where ownership is likely to be low.
What to target on the Redskins? The main thing I would look to target is Kirk Cousins, as the Redskins are sure to put the ball in his hands. He’s the safest play on this side of the ball. If pairing him with anyone, I would likely take the plunge on DeSean Jackson, as he has game-breaking upside in what should quickly become an easier matchup than it looks on paper.
Raiders at Broncos
RAIDERS:
The Raiders need a win and a Patriots loss to lock up the #1 seed. They need a win (or a Chiefs loss) to lock up the division and a first-round bye. If the Raiders lose and the Chiefs win, the Raiders will find themselves on the road in the first week of the playoffs, instead of getting a first-round bye and a home game in the second round. This is a big game for them, and I expect them to win, as the Broncos are sitting several banged-up defensive starters…but I don’t expect it to be pretty.
What do I expect for DFS? I have zero interest in Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree, with Matt McGloin under center, against a Broncos pass defense that is about two times better against wide receivers than any other team in football. I expect the Raiders to run the ball a good 40 times, with maybe 20 going to Latavius Murray, 12 going to DeAndre Washington, and eight going to Jalen Richard. None of these guys stand out as elite plays, but the first two are definitely worthy of consideration.
BRONCOS:
The Broncos have nothing to play for, and they are proving that by planning to play both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch this week. With their run game an absolute mess and their pass game unlikely to achieve optimum effectiveness this week, it’s tough to get excited about anything on this side of the ball.
Is there anything to like on the Broncos? I say no, but if you want to get frisky, Emmanuel Sanders matches up best with the Oakland corners. It’s a thin play with a quarterback rotation set to be in place, but it’s certainly a play that could lead to a sneaky big game.
Cardinals at Rams
CARDINALS:
The Cardinals are looking to get David Johnson a handful of records – starting with a 16th consecutive game with at least 100 yards from scrimmage. Barring injury, they should have no problem pushing DJ to this milestone. Other than this, the Cardinals have nothing important on their plates; they should continue feeding looks to DJ and J.J. Nelson in an effort to wrap up this season on a strong note.
What do we like on the Cardinals? DJ is, of course, one of the top plays on the weekend. The matchup is difficult, and the Rams have been the only team all season to hold DJ to a mortal-like game, but I’ll be surprised if the Rams repeat that performance here. Other than DJ, it’s business as usual in targeting the Cardinals; you could justify a look at J.J. Nelson, or you could feel comfortable looking away. That’s really about it.
RAMS:
The Rams are likely to be without Kenny Britt this weekend, which takes the worst offense in the NFL and robs it of its best weapon. This is a great week to tee up the Cardinals’ DST, and to avoid the Rams altogether.
Isn’t there anything at all to like on the Rams? No.
Chiefs at Chargers
CHIEFS:
The Chiefs are playing this game at the same time as the Raiders. They need a win and a Raiders loss to lock up their division and a first-round bye. They will be coming to play this week, in an extremely important game.
How do the Chiefs break down from a DFS perspective? Spencer Ware is currently expected to be a game-time call, and this backfield has been fairly ineffective for the last couple months even with Ware in there. I don’t love this backfield this week. We also know that Casey Hayward should largely erase Jeremy Maclin. This leaves us with targets being filtered toward Travis Kelce – who should be one of the most popular plays on the weekend, and who deserves every bit of that popularity.
CHARGERS:
The Chargers have nothing to play for, they have a horrible matchup, and they will have Ronnie Hillman and Andre Williams splitting work in the backfield. They are ready for this season to be over.
Aren’t the Chiefs bad against wide receivers? Not anymore. The Chiefs’ defense has come on strong over the last month-plus, becoming one of the most fearsome units in the NFL. With Tyrell Williams struggling through a torn labrum, Dontrelle Inman struggling to offer upside, and Travis Benjamin struggling just in general, the wide receivers on this team do not appeal to me at all. The same goes for the tight ends, who will deal with Eric Berry’s blanket coverage. Ronnie Hillman is the only guy you could really justify rostering here – and it would be a pretty weak play if you made it.
Seahawks at 49ers
SEAHAWKS:
The Seahawks need a win and a Falcons loss to secure a first-round bye. Because the Falcons are playing at the same time as the Seahawks, we should expect max effort from Seattle, as they look to bury the 49ers and move onto the playoffs.
What do we like on the Seahawks? Quite frankly, everything. Thomas Rawls is healthy and should see 20 touches against the worst run defense in the NFL. Doug Baldwin should soak up double-digit looks again, with Tyler Lockett out, and with 49ers’ slot corner Jimmie Ward out as well (the 49ers are atrocious against the deep ball – particularly the deep middle of the field). Jimmy Graham is in a nice bounce-back spot. And Russell Wilson has a good shot at posting a big game as he heads into the playoffs. Feel free to load up in this spot.
49ERS:
The 49ers might be the worst team in football. They are playing a Super Bowl contender. They will be without Carlos Hyde, who was their only good offensive player remaining.
The 49ers? Come on – really?
Packers at Lions
I’ll lump both teams into one in this spot:
The winner of this game takes down the NFC North. If the Redskins win, the loser of this game misses the playoffs entirely. (If the Redskins lose earlier in the day, this game becomes less exciting, as the loser will still make the playoffs.)
We can expect max effort from both teams in this spot, and we can expect a high-scoring game; although both teams do a great job limiting opponent plays, each of these teams is also a pass-heavy unit, taking on a defense that is poor at defending the pass.
What to like in this game? Both pass units – from top to bottom. Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Golden Tate, and Jordy Nelson are the primary targets, but the tight ends (Eric Ebron and Jared Cook) are also in good spots, and ancillary pass catchers (Marvin Jones and Davante Adams) also have a shot at a big game. You could also look to either backfield (Zach Zenner should once again play the majority of the snaps this week for Detroit, while Ty Montgomery should see 15 looks of his own). This is a great game to target, and you can be certain you will not be alone if you wait till Sunday night to wrap up your DFS day.
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Now go forth, and crush!
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards when it’s all said and done.