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MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-29 01:27:44

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
tampabaymlb Austin Pruitt nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-186 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.300 26.7% 0.0% 15.8% 46.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.301 0.308 32.1% 4.1% 21.7% 51.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.384 0.342 34.8% 8.4% 19.0% 44.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.308 32.2% 5.5% 21.7% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Austin Pruitt
austin-pruitt-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 3.93 6.25 17.8% 5.3% 45.6% 31.6% 15.8%

Pruitt will only be making his second career major league start tonight, although he has made 17 appearances out of the bullpen, so he at least has some big league experience under his belt. He’s shown a lot of promise in the minors, but is still a wildcard at this point. He draws one of the worst matchups in the slate, as he takes on a Yankees’ offense that is ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. In a full 15 game slate, we don’t need to take unnecessary risks.

Quick Breakdown: Chris Flexen (Padres) was a good example of why I like to take a wait and see approach with most rookie pitchers.

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.79 3.07 20.5% 4.5% 48.2% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 20 3.71 5.37 23.6% 5.4% 49.9% 31.6% 18.1%
L30 5 3.13 4.35 25.4% 3.1% 56.2% 23.6% 20.2%

Tanaka is more talented than his 5.37 ERA would lead you to believe. From an advanced metrics standpoint, he is actually having one of the best seasons in his career. He owns a 3.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He also has a swinging strike rate of 14.6%, which is a career high and the second highest mark of any pitcher in the slate. The Rays have a better lineup with newly acquired Lucas Duda, but they are still going to strikeout at a high rate. Six of their projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: The high ERA has kept Tanaka’s salary low, which only makes him a better play. I see Tanaka as an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Masahiro Tanaka has struggled with the long ball this season, but his HR/FB rate of 23% is unsustainable. His career average is at 16% and the major league average is just over 10%. The high HR/FB rate is one of the main reasons why there is such a large gap between his ERA and SIERA. Even with all of the home runs, Tanaka has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA since the start of last season. Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, and Lucas Duda are all viable GPP plays thanks to the short porch in right, but I plan to have more exposure to Tanaka than I do to the Rays’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.338 0.266 0.119 21.4% 11.3% 16.2% 54.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.363 0.322 0.234 36.7% 6.1% 22.5% 38.5% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.335 0.311 0.175 31.7% 4.6% 14.2% 44.0% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.385 0.400 0.321 43.7% 15.6% 22.7% 31.5% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.391 0.389 0.292 39.9% 12.9% 28.3% 41.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.382 0.391 0.302 43.2% 14.3% 22.4% 28.1% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.215 0.321 0.150 41.9% 4.5% 22.7% 45.2% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Brad Miller LEFT 0.303 0.319 0.107 35.6% 20.8% 27.4% 55.2% 2B $2,800 2B $2,900 SS $5,700
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.255 0.275 0.045 26.4% 1.8% 17.0% 53.3% SS $2,200 SS $2,600 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Even though the Yankees are -186 favorites, the line seems low. They are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his second career start and they are facing him at home. They also have a good pitcher in Masahiro Tanaka on the mound. Whenever the Yankees are facing a mediocre or below-average pitcher, they automatically become a viable stack. This is a talented offense that draws a lot of walks and hits a lot of home runs. Austin Pruitt has shown some promise in the minor leagues, but I’m more than willing to take hitters against him until he proves that he can hang with the big boys in the majors.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.360 0.340 0.216 36.7% 11.5% 19.0% 39.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.348 0.336 0.300 53.3% 2.4% 26.2% 36.7% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.443 0.446 0.337 48.5% 15.0% 31.0% 39.1% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.360 0.367 0.209 37.1% 8.2% 24.5% 42.7% C $3,400 C $4,600 C $9,000
5 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.339 0.355 0.238 32.1% 10.6% 24.8% 46.2% OF $2,700 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.381 0.279 0.240 25.5% 4.3% 13.5% 40.4% SS $3,900 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.350 0.331 0.128 28.0% 13.2% 23.3% 42.8% 1B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.312 0.346 0.191 29.0% 13.5% 21.7% 38.5% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
9 Tyler Wade LEFT 0.282 0.338 0.136 31.3% 15.4% 23.1% 37.5% OF $2,200 SS $3,100 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Clint Frazier, Matt Holliday, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
atlantamlb Julio Teheran philadelphiamlb Jeremy Hellickson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-100 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.347 35.5% 10.2% 14.7% 37.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.352 29.0% 9.0% 16.1% 31.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.276 29.5% 3.4% 25.6% 41.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.311 27.3% 3.5% 18.9% 44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran
julio-teheran-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 3.21 22.0% 5.4% 39.1% 33.1% 17.7%
2017 20 5.07 4.67 17.1% 8.9% 40.1% 32.0% 21.4%
L30 5 4.65 4.40 21.1% 10.2% 44.3% 36.4% 15.9%

Teheran has had a down year by his standards. In 20 starts, he has a 5.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. The ground ball and hard contact rates are similar, but he doesn’t have nearly as good of a home ballpark as he used to (in terms of run production). The biggest issue throughout his career has been left-handed power bats. When facing a lefty, his strikeout rate dips to 15%, his ground ball rate dips to 38%, and he gives up a .347 xwOBA. His fantasy appeal tonight hinges on what the Phillies’ lineup looks like. If they only throw a few righties in there, Teheran will have some tournament appeal.

Quick Breakdown: Teheran draws a nice matchup against the Phillies, it just depends on what their lineup looks like.

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.15 3.71 20.0% 5.8% 40.7% 25.9% 20.8%
2017 20 5.29 4.73 13.8% 6.4% 35.1% 31.3% 18.1%
L30 5 3.75 5.08 24.3% 4.5% 33.8% 39.2% 10.1%

Hellickson isn’t having a very good season overall, but he has picked it up in his last five starts, posting a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. The issue with Hellickson is two-fold. First off, he generally isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, which lowers his floor and limits his upside. The other issue is that his home ballpark is one of the easiest places in baseball to hit home runs, which doesn’t bode well for fly-ball pitchers. I’m encouraged by the form and I don’t hate the matchup against the Braves, but we should be able to find better options in a 15-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Hellickson isn’t the worst play on the board, but he’s a deep GPP flier at best. The recent form doesn’t make up for a bad season as a whole.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park and they get to face a fly-ball pitcher that has a SIERA over 5.00 this season. Jeremy Hellickson has struggled with left-handed hitters in the last couple of years, allowing a .352 xwOBA with a 9% walk rate. Freddie Freeman and Matt Adams are both great bets to hit home runs tonight, as they both have big power numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.318 0.285 0.104 25.3% 7.3% 14.4% 41.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.333 0.318 0.156 26.7% 3.8% 12.0% 48.8% 2B $2,700 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.481 0.463 0.395 38.7% 15.8% 15.8% 36.1% 3B $3,800 1B/3B $4,600 1B $9,000
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.353 0.356 0.194 35.4% 4.5% 22.4% 47.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.332 0.343 0.119 35.0% 9.9% 18.6% 46.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 RF $6,300
6 Matt Adams LEFT 0.388 0.378 0.278 42.3% 7.3% 23.9% 33.6% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.371 0.347 0.164 40.9% 7.3% 22.0% 39.4% C $2,600 C $3,600 C $7,200
8 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.279 0.272 0.101 25.6% 3.8% 21.9% 46.8% SS $3,000 3B $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Julio Teheran RIGHT 0.161 0.154 0.000 4.2% 3.1% 21.9% 77.8% P $7,800 P $8,100 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies have one of the easiest matchups in the slate to breakdown. We expect a pitcher to have splits that favor one side of the plate over the other, but there are few with a bigger gap in splits than Julio Teheran. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, while holding right-handed hitters to a .276 xwOBA and a 30% hard contact rate. Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis are both decent punts, but Nick Williams is far and away my favorite target in this lineup. He currently owns a .358 xwOBA with a 44% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.342 0.309 0.104 20.6% 9.8% 20.6% 48.9% 2B $3,200 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.316 0.293 0.185 30.5% 7.6% 19.2% 37.6% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.364 0.358 0.226 43.8% 5.8% 23.2% 50.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
4 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.363 0.304 0.111 32.9% 3.8% 22.9% 57.3% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.283 0.322 0.151 27.5% 7.3% 13.5% 48.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.385 0.333 0.235 40.0% 7.7% 29.7% 39.2% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
7 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.310 0.313 0.163 39.5% 6.0% 23.4% 45.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.340 0.326 0.130 38.3% 15.2% 26.1% 58.0% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.168 0.161 0.115 13.0% 9.4% 18.8% 84.2% P $6,700 P $6,100 P $12,000

Elite Plays – Nick Williams

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Colorado Washington
coloradomlb German Marquez washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-140 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.312 32.0% 8.4% 18.4% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.330 30.4% 10.3% 18.1% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.326 38.5% 6.5% 22.6% 40.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.294 21.9% 6.5% 21.6% 54.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

German Marquez
german-marquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.97 5.23 15.3% 6.1% 54.9% 29.7% 13.5%
2017 16 4.28 4.20 21.9% 7.7% 42.8% 36.7% 15.0%
L30 5 3.83 4.75 24.2% 7.0% 47.6% 39.5% 17.4%

Marquez has had a pretty decent season for a Rockies’ pitcher. In 16 starts, he boasts a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. The big issue with Marquez is that he doesn’t induce soft contact. His medium and hard contact rates are both above the major league average. When you add in a matchup against the Nationals, he becomes an easy fade in all formats. On the season, Washington is ranked second in team wOBA and sixth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Marquez has more downside than upside in a road start against the Nationals.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.32 2.83 20.1% 8.5% 48.7% 24.3% 23.1%
2017 19 4.49 4.83 19.5% 8.1% 47.4% 29.0% 14.8%
L30 4 4.18 4.67 23.1% 9.4% 48.7% 27.9% 17.7%

Roark is a pitcher that I rarely use in DFS. Unless it’s a small slate where there aren’t any better options, I tend to gravitate to pitchers with a little more upside. In 19 starts this season, he has a mediocre SIERA and a slightly below-average strikeout rate. The Rockies are a team that we can usually pick on away from Coors Field, but Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are always two bats to worry about. Dollar for dollar, Roark isn’t a bad play as a big home favorite, but I will be looking elsewhere for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not going to talk you off of Roark, but I will be avoiding him in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Even though I don’t plan to have any shares of Tanner Roark, I will have very little exposure to the Rockies’ offense. Roark may not have a high strikeout rate, but he induces a lot of soft and medium contact and the Rockies have to face him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Charlie Blackmon and Gerardo Parra are intriguing one-off targets, but in a 15-game slate, there are better options in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.415 0.355 0.303 39.7% 8.2% 22.4% 35.4% OF $4,400 OF $5,000 CF $9,600
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.302 0.314 0.061 27.4% 7.1% 13.9% 57.1% 2B $3,400 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.336 0.319 0.222 35.9% 7.2% 18.8% 36.9% 3B $4,400 3B $4,800 3B $9,200
4 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.369 0.335 0.197 36.6% 4.0% 12.8% 47.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.408 0.340 0.270 34.1% 9.6% 27.1% 43.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
6 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.289 0.302 0.130 26.6% 11.3% 20.2% 45.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.276 0.266 0.127 32.6% 9.7% 34.2% 33.6% SS $3,300 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.293 0.291 0.058 19.2% 13.3% 17.2% 53.3% C $2,500 C $2,300 C $4,500
9 German Marquez RIGHT 0.167 0.167 0.000 23.5% 0.0% 29.2% 78.6% P $6,500 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

German Marquez has fairly neutral splits, allowing a .312 xwOBA with a 32% hard contact to left-handed hitters and a .326 xwOBA with a 39% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Nationals are one of the best offenses in baseball and yesterday was a great example of that (they hit home runs in four straight at-bats). A Nationals’ stack isn’t out of the question, but I’d rather target Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy as one-offs and use my stacks elsewhere.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.303 0.313 0.216 32.4% 9.6% 23.4% 40.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.272 0.295 0.056 22.7% 9.8% 17.9% 55.3% SS $2,500 2B/SS $3,500 2B $6,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.468 0.445 0.351 35.7% 18.4% 15.7% 37.2% OF $4,800 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.388 0.370 0.240 39.1% 7.2% 21.3% 45.7% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.405 0.379 0.250 36.2% 7.8% 8.1% 32.7% 2B $4,100 2B $5,100 2B $9,900
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.396 0.369 0.240 33.0% 14.1% 13.8% 37.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
7 Adam Lind LEFT 0.409 0.397 0.264 42.3% 9.5% 14.6% 44.2% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.277 0.292 0.118 32.6% 6.2% 19.8% 39.5% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.157 0.151 0.036 17.4% 2.9% 29.4% 76.5% P $7,700 P $7,500 P $15,000

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

LA Angels Toronto
laangelsmlb Parker Bridwell torontomlb J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-160 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.356 0.360 31.3% 7.8% 11.7% 42.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.327 33.1% 6.0% 18.1% 48.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.385 40.5% 4.9% 20.6% 37.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.316 30.9% 7.4% 21.1% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Parker Bridwell
parker-bridwell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 4.53 13.50 20.0% 6.7% 20.0% 54.6% 9.1%
2017 7 4.86 3.09 15.8% 6.3% 41.7% 34.3% 13.7%
L30 5 4.58 3.09 17.1% 4.7% 40.4% 33.0% 12.0%

Bridwell is making his eighth start of the season tonight against the Blue Jays. The first seven may look good in terms of ERA, but he owns a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. He’s also an inexperienced pitcher that is on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. We don’t need to overthink this one. Bridwell can be avoided in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: The Blue Jays struggle against the slider, but Bridwell only throws his 18% of the time. He’s an easy fade tonight.

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.28 3.18 20.5% 7.5% 42.5% 31.6% 17.8%
2017 13 4.20 4.13 20.6% 6.0% 45.0% 30.7% 19.5%
L30 5 5.63 4.61 12.6% 9.5% 44.9% 31.3% 21.2%

If you are a fan of Happ, I’m not going to talk you out of playing him. He’s a perfectly fine play against the Angels. He hasn’t been in great form recently, but he has a 21% strikeout rate on the season and his price has come all the way down below $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If you are looking for a cheap SP2 in tournaments, you can certainly do a lot worse than Happ. He is facing an Angels’ offense that is ranked 26th in team wOBA against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not going to be on Happ myself, but I don’t have any concrete reason to fade him if you want to play him.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre and they draw a decent matchup against J.A. Happ, who has been in terrible form in his last five starts. This isn’t a spot where we want to stack Los Angeles (those instances are rare), but Mike Trout and C.J. Cron are both on my radar as one-off targets. Trout is one of the best hitters in baseball and Cron quietly has a .398 xwOBA and a .351 ISO against lefties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.350 0.340 0.065 33.8% 7.0% 13.0% 60.0% 3B $2,500 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.399 0.382 0.237 27.6% 20.4% 18.4% 41.4% OF $4,900 OF $5,300 CF $10,200
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.284 0.317 0.120 36.0% 7.1% 17.2% 40.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.412 0.398 0.351 40.7% 7.5% 25.0% 25.9% 1B $2,200 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.324 0.311 0.138 26.7% 11.1% 13.1% 50.7% SS $3,300 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
6 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.296 0.331 0.162 29.1% 9.6% 19.1% 44.3% OF $2,900 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.336 0.306 0.135 35.2% 8.1% 24.4% 57.7% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,600
8 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.000 0.273 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3B $2,000 3B $2,200 3B $4,100
9 Ben Revere LEFT 0.129 0.151 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 17.6% 55.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,100 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The last time we saw the Blue Jays, they were getting dominated by Paul Blackburn of all people. This is one of the most frustrating offenses in all of baseball, but they do have plenty of upside and potentially low ownership tonight. Parker Bridwell has shown some promise in the minors, but that has yet to translate to the majors. The sample size is small (seven starts), but Bridwell has allowed a .360+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.334 0.338 0.191 33.8% 13.1% 22.6% 33.8% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.344 0.335 0.169 30.8% 14.5% 22.4% 51.5% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,600
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.346 0.341 0.195 31.6% 14.5% 25.9% 43.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.375 0.398 0.292 39.7% 10.7% 22.1% 33.0% 1B $3,800 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.301 0.358 0.186 37.6% 6.8% 22.2% 47.3% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.329 0.307 0.142 32.3% 5.4% 21.7% 45.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 1B $6,000
7 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.324 0.299 0.149 32.4% 6.6% 14.8% 46.5% SS $2,500 SS $2,600 SS $5,200
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.273 0.311 0.130 27.6% 5.2% 15.4% 45.1% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 CF $5,200
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.265 0.286 0.130 28.1% 7.8% 17.6% 44.3% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,700 2B $5,400

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista (DK & FDRFT), Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista (FD), Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Houston Detroit
houstonmlb Dallas Keuchel detroitmlb Jordan Zimmermann
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-160 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.226 0.257 23.9% 3.0% 26.1% 64.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.338 36.1% 6.1% 16.3% 38.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.304 28.1% 7.6% 20.5% 58.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.365 0.340 30.4% 6.9% 14.5% 38.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel
dallas-keuchel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,500
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.77 4.55 20.5% 6.9% 56.7% 29.8% 21.1%
2017 11 3.11 1.67 24.4% 6.4% 67.4% 20.6% 29.9%

Keuchel will be making his long-awaited return from the DL, after missing nearly two months with a neck injury. He has made two rehab starts recently, but topped out at 62 pitches in his last outing. There is a good chance that he will be on a pitch count tonight, which lowers both his floor and his ceiling. When in good form, Keuchel is one of the best pitchers in the American League. However, given the potential pitch count, the right-handed heavy lineup of the Tigers, and the potential issue of rust, I will be avoiding him in tonight’s slate.

Quick Breakdown:There are enough question marks about Keuchel that I don’t mind avoiding him in a full slate.

Jordan Zimmermann
jordan-zimmermann-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 4.81 4.87 14.7% 5.8% 43.1% 27.3% 18.5%
2017 19 5.09 5.81 16.0% 7.3% 33.3% 39.0% 14.1%
L30 5 4.91 7.83 17.7% 8.0% 33.8% 39.0% 14.6%

Zimmermann is one of my favorite pitchers to target bats against. He has everything that we are looking for – a high SIERA, a high fly-ball rate, a low strikeout rate, and a high hard contact rate. We can overlook one or two of those statistics, but when a pitcher does everything poorly, he does not deserve consideration. The Astros may be short-handed right now, but they should still score some runs against Zimmermann.

Quick Breakdown:The risk outweighs the upside with Zimmermann.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

George Springer was available off the bench in Wednesday’s game and is tentatively expected to return to the lineup tonight against the Tigers. Alex Bregman may also return tonight, which means the Astros will only be missing one of their batters in Carlos Correa. In terms of their matchup, there are few more favorable in baseball than Jordan Zimmermann. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .338+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. An Astros’ stack is firmly in play here and the one through five hitters are all viable in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.387 0.374 0.263 39.1% 8.8% 22.4% 49.3% OF $3,800 OF $5,200 RF $10,000
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.422 0.358 0.202 28.0% 8.9% 12.3% 48.6% 2B $4,500 2B $5,500 2B $10,800
3 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.365 0.342 0.218 35.8% 7.8% 13.1% 32.7% OF $3,200 OF $4,700 RF $9,300
4 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.313 0.285 0.197 34.0% 7.6% 19.1% 46.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
5 Brian McCann LEFT 0.320 0.326 0.179 35.7% 8.6% 17.2% 43.3% C $2,800 C $3,900 C $7,800
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.365 0.335 0.216 36.2% 1.6% 10.4% 42.5% 1B $3,300 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.434 0.338 0.278 33.8% 11.1% 19.4% 44.1% SS $3,900 3B/OF $4,600 1B $9,000
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.321 0.343 0.168 32.5% 9.3% 17.1% 40.7% 3B $3,300 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
9 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.314 0.279 0.110 18.8% 7.1% 13.1% 56.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 LF $7,200

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

Even though I will be waiting a start or two before targeting Dallas Keuchel, I won’t be targeting hitters against him. He has one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA in the last two seasons. The Tigers have a lot of right-handed power, but targeting hitters against elite ground ball pitchers isn’t a profitable strategy long-term.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.353 0.372 0.260 46.2% 8.8% 10.0% 24.6% 2B $3,600 2B $3,200 2B $6,300
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.388 0.419 0.372 51.5% 8.5% 19.1% 39.7% 3B $2,600 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.428 0.372 0.225 44.6% 9.9% 18.5% 44.6% OF $3,700 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.377 0.432 0.104 48.0% 15.2% 21.5% 40.0% 1B $3,500 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
5 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.332 0.336 0.224 50.0% 1.3% 23.1% 37.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.313 0.279 0.059 29.3% 8.1% 13.5% 55.2% C $3,000 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.466 0.438 0.414 44.4% 9.2% 20.0% 26.7% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,400
8 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.244 0.262 0.132 55.6% 7.1% 28.6% 61.5% OF $2,100 2B/OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,200
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.290 0.277 0.081 22.0% 1.6% 6.3% 48.3% SS $3,000 SS $2,900 SS $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious