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MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 2nd

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-03 04:38:40

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

St. Louis Chicago Cubs
stlouismlb Lance Lynn cubsmlb John Lackey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-153 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.376 0.338 31.0% 11.8% 16.8% 44.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.343 34.4% 8.8% 20.1% 45.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.197 0.256 24.7% 5.0% 27.5% 46.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.299 35.3% 5.9% 26.8% 38.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 4.10 2.93 22.2% 8.4% 45.6% 28.0% 18.6%

Lance Lynn is sporting a K rate of 22.2% this season. That number exactly matches his 2015 season. In fact none, of the surface numbers for Lynn vary all that much from his career averages. Lynn gets a decent amount of ground balls at 45.6% yet walks a few too many batters at 8.4%. The Cubs rank 14th in K rate against RH pitching at 21.1%. They also own a .303 wOBA and 85 wRC+ which are both slightly below league average.

Quick Breakdown: This game starts at 2:20 PM so you don’t really even need to make this decision if only playing the main slate. I would personally look elsewhere even if playing the early slate. There’s not that much upside here.

John Lackey
john-lackey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 3.83 3.35 24.1% 7.1% 41.0% 34.4% 16.2%
2017 10 3.86 5.18 23.3% 7.4% 44.4% 36.4% 15.3%

John Lackey posted the highest K rate of his career last season at 24.1%. He did that in a season where he turned 37 years old. This season, Lackey has been mostly the same pitcher as last year except with more home runs. You could argue he’s been unlucky with a HR/FB rate of 21% when he’s averaged 10.3% in his career. He’s still getting hit hard at 36.4% hard contact though. Based purely on this season’s (numbers .369 wOBA vs. LH, .346 wOBA vs. RH) I want nothing to do with Lackey in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: We probably wasted more time than we needed to here. If you are playing the all-day slate, you probably aren’t playing Lackey or Lynn.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The numbers say we could realistically target Cardinals from either side of the plate here. Lackey owns a .369 wOBA vs. LH and .346 vs. RH batters. He’s also allowing hard contact at over 35% to both hands. The biggest thing that stands out is an 18.3%K rate to LH vs. 27.5% to RH batters. Realistically, that leads us to the same Cardinals that we almost always target. Dexter Fowler (.355 wOBA vs. RH) and Matt Carpenter (.384 wOBA vs. RH) are your top plays here. If playing the early slate, I wouldn’t go overboard on this game with plenty of great hitting spots late.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.355 0.338 0.179 29.9% 13.8% 25.1% 36.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.326 0.347 0.156 33.3% 7.7% 21.2% 46.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.384 0.415 0.258 46.6% 16.1% 19.7% 28.4% 1B $3,400 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
4 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.329 0.336 0.120 31.7% 6.1% 10.9% 47.3% C $2,900 C $3,200 N/A N/A
5 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.362 0.360 0.228 47.3% 9.0% 33.1% 50.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.365 0.317 0.212 30.5% 6.9% 12.7% 44.2% SS $3,000 SS $2,800 N/A N/A
7 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.330 0.336 0.142 32.6% 7.1% 16.6% 42.5% 3B $2,400 3B $2,800 N/A N/A
8 Paul DeJong RIGHT 2.015 0.712 3.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3B $2,300 3B $2,100 N/A N/A
9 Lance Lynn RIGHT 0.063 0.114 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 46.7% 57.1% P $8,100 P $7,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Chicago Cubs

If you want to target Lance Lynn, the way to do it is with LH batters, He owns a .376 wOBA, 11.8% BB and 16.8% K rate. Realistically, RH batters here are off limits as they own a .197 wOBA and 27.5% K rate. That leads us to Ben Zobrist (.360 wOBA vs. RH) as the top play. You could possibly get away with Kyle Schwarber as well but he looks lost at the plate right now with a .287 wOBA vs. RH.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.360 0.369 0.184 33.5% 15.3% 11.9% 46.2% OF $3,500 2B/OF $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.287 0.358 0.180 36.7% 12.3% 27.9% 46.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.377 0.350 0.235 37.1% 9.8% 22.8% 31.1% 3B $4,100 3B $5,100 N/A N/A
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.387 0.377 0.256 37.0% 12.0% 16.1% 36.7% 1B $4,400 1B $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.367 0.352 0.243 36.4% 13.6% 34.1% 40.9% 2B $2,800 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.300 0.318 0.118 27.3% 8.8% 13.8% 45.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.331 0.310 0.193 32.6% 9.2% 28.0% 53.8% C $2,700 C $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.294 0.294 0.147 27.5% 7.4% 21.8% 43.5% SS $2,900 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
9 John Lackey RIGHT 0.161 0.176 0.053 23.5% 3.2% 42.9% 53.3% P $8,600 P $7,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
bostonmlb Rick Porcello baltimoremlb Alec Asher
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-127 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.305 35.3% 4.0% 21.6% 38.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.323 33.7% 5.8% 14.1% 30.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.317 31.0% 3.6% 21.5% 46.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.326 29.7% 4.1% 15.7% 40.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
rick-porcello-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.78 3.15 21.2% 3.6% 43.1% 30.0% 16.9%
2017 11 3.69 4.21 22.4% 4.3% 39.1% 42.5% 16.7%

The first game of the late slate features a 9.5 over/under. Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young last season. He’s increased his K% and lowered his SIERA but I’m doubting he’s going to win again. That’s a joke, by the way. Porcello is a pretty decent pitcher. He owns a 22.4% K rate, controls walks at 4.3% and has a HR/9 of 0.99 in his career. The big problem with Porcello here is that he’s allowing 42.5% hard contact and has a 40.5% fly ball rate. The Orioles rank 10th in K rate at 22.6% against RH pitching. There isn’t a huge gap between them and 20th (20.3%) though. Porcello could certainly have a decent game but this feels like a spot where the risk outweighs the reward.

Quick Breakdown: With 14 games on the schedule tonight, we really don’t need to take a risk on a guy like Porcello against the Orioles. He could surprise with a good game but there are plenty of other places to find the same upside.

Alec Asher
alec-asher-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 5.12 2.28 11.7% 3.6% 35.2% 30.4% 22.8%
2017 3 4.32 3.77 17.6% 6.1% 34.8% 33.0% 18.1%

Alec Asher will make his fourth start for the Red Sox this season. He’s posted a mediocre 17.6% K rate thus far. He also has some fly ball tendencies with a FB rate of 41.3% compared to 34.8% GB rate. The Red Sox are last in the league in K% vs RH pitching at 18.3%. Alec Asher has done enough to stay in the Orioles rotation this season but that says more about the other options than it does about him.

Quick Breakdown: In a weaker matchup, Asher would be in play as a punt SP2 in tournaments. Given that the Red Sox are second to last in K rate against RH pitching I don’t see the upside here though.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

This season, Asher has a .304 wOBA to LH batters and a .362 wOBA to RH batters. The strikeouts are about the same to both but he’s allowing a 47.5% fly ball rate to LH compared to 36.5% to RH. We can target batters from either side of the plate here though as the Red Sox implied run total is just over five runs. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. stand out as the top options here based on their ability to hit RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.380 0.335 0.204 33.9% 8.2% 10.5% 42.6% OF $4,300 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.357 0.337 0.179 36.2% 9.2% 14.5% 36.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.349 0.298 0.145 30.0% 7.4% 16.8% 48.2% SS $3,800 SS $5,300 SS $10,400
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.344 0.348 0.178 37.4% 9.8% 19.4% 49.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.315 0.358 0.191 39.0% 8.6% 22.9% 40.3% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.358 0.357 0.244 37.7% 10.7% 21.8% 45.3% OF $3,200 OF $5,000 CF $9,600
7 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.281 0.363 0.196 44.7% 8.8% 24.6% 36.8% 3B $2,700 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.308 0.279 0.147 34.4% 5.8% 24.8% 43.2% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.179 0.203 0.021 33.3% 7.5% 30.2% 64.5% SS $2,000 3B $3,200 3B $6,400

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Baltimore

After tagging Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox for seven runs last night, the Orioles take on Rick Porcello tonight.This team is known for running hot for stretches and then ice cold for others. Rick Porcello owns a .283 wOBA to LH batters and .303 wOBA to RH over the last 13 months. The numbers are up this year with a .352 wOBA to LH and .350 to RH. Overall he’s allowing 42.5% hard contact most of the damage is being done by LH batters at 45.4% though. The ideal way to attack here would be hoping that Porcello’s home run woes continue. Mark Trumbo (.372 wOBA vs RH), Seth Smith (.335 wOBA vs RH) and Chris Davis (.345 wOBA vs. RH) are a couple of ways that you could hunt a home run

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.335 0.368 0.169 33.3% 10.8% 21.2% 45.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.338 0.341 0.192 32.2% 5.5% 16.2% 43.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.347 0.360 0.240 35.1% 7.0% 18.8% 38.1% 3B $3,400 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.372 0.380 0.266 37.8% 7.7% 23.5% 40.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.345 0.351 0.262 42.3% 13.8% 34.8% 36.2% 1B $3,800 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.392 0.386 0.306 36.4% 7.0% 28.2% 40.9% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,300 1B $6,600
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.338 0.315 0.203 29.3% 3.1% 19.8% 42.5% 2B $3,300 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
8 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.232 0.264 0.070 24.0% 3.6% 21.1% 41.5% C $2,400 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.286 0.289 0.115 30.1% 4.8% 16.7% 43.1% SS $2,500 SS $3,200 SS $6,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo and Seth Smith

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

San Francisco at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco Philadelphia
sanfranciscomlb Ty Blach philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-116 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.214 0.307 33.8% 8.3% 9.5% 59.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.317 31.0% 6.9% 18.0% 37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.314 29.3% 6.2% 11.7% 45.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.285 29.9% 4.4% 23.5% 43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ty Blach
tyson-blach-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.46 1.06 16.1% 8.1% 57.8% 29.8% 25.5%
2017 7 5.24 3.83 9.5% 6.5% 47.9% 31.0% 17.9%

Ty Blach took Madison Bumgarner’s spot in the rotation once he was injured. If you exclude his terrible game in Cincinnati, Blach would otherwise have a 2.21 ERA. That’s pretty good, right? I guess you could say that but the good news stops there. Blach owns a 9.5% K rate and 6.5% BB rate. He’s induces ground balls at 47.9%. He does get to take on the lowly Phillies offense that owns a 22.8% K rate and 85 wRC+ against RH pitching. The main issue with Blach is that you would be wasting a pitcher spot on someone with absolutely no strikeout upside. He has four or more strikeouts in just two of seven starts.

Quick Breakdown: Blach is slightly overpriced given his upside. Especially given that he’s not even favored to win the game. I’ll have to pass, even in a decent matchup against the Phillies

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.05 3.65 20.6% 5.2% 40.7% 30.8% 20.0%
2017 10 4.31 4.74 20.2% 7.5% 38.1% 29.7% 14.3%

If we only looked at the surface numbers, Jerad Eickhoff might be a playable option. He owns a 20.2% K rate and 7.5% BB rate. The problem is when you look at his splits. In his career he owns a .350 wOBA to LH batters and .262 to RH. He’s had the exact same issue this season with a .358 wOBA to LH 20.3% K rate and 10.1% BB rate. The Giants are 24th in K rate against RH pitching at 20% while ranking last in wOBA (.278) and wRC+ (73). Put simply, this is an offense that doesn’t strikeout much but also doesn’t have much firepower.

Quick Breakdown: Eickhoff is on the fringe of playability on DraftKings at $6,200. It will almost entirely depend on how many LH batters the Giants have in their lineup. For now, we’ll call Eickhoff an SP2 option in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Jerad Eickhoff owns a .350 wOBA against LH hitting. The Giants should be able to roll out at least four LH batters tonight. The main one that would scare me if I were using Eickhoff is Brandon Belt. He owns a .377 wOBA against RH pitching. He’s the main option I would look for in attacking Eickhoff. Denard Span is at least worth a glance as well with a .335 wOBA against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.335 0.342 0.150 27.5% 8.0% 11.5% 47.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.320 0.289 0.123 26.3% 4.5% 14.1% 51.6% 3B $3,500 3B/OF $3,800 3B $7,500
3 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.377 0.391 0.217 38.4% 17.0% 22.6% 25.7% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.337 0.370 0.137 33.9% 9.2% 10.4% 49.9% C $3,800 1B/C $4,300 C $8,400
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.323 0.335 0.174 34.9% 8.7% 18.1% 42.8% SS $2,800 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
6 Joe Panik LEFT 0.311 0.334 0.159 26.3% 9.5% 7.9% 45.1% 2B $2,500 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
7 Justin Ruggiano RIGHT 0.242 0.273 0.171 46.4% 0.0% 32.6% 44.4% OF $2,300 OF $2,500 RF $4,800
8 Christian Arroyo RIGHT 0.223 0.276 0.129 32.1% 9.0% 23.1% 62.3% 3B $2,500 3B/SS $2,700 3B $5,200
9 Ty Blach LEFT 0.220 0.217 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 62.5% 0.0% P $7,900 P $7,300 P $14,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt and Denard Span

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Philadelphia

Ty Blach has some pretty extreme splits with a .214 wOBA against LH batters and .307 against RH. The main difference is close to elite ground ball ability at 59.1% against LH batters. You honestly don’t need to play any Phillies in this matchup. As I mentioned above, Blach would own a 2.21 ERA if he hadn’t been blown up by the Reds. Is it possible that Aaron Altherr, Tommy Joseph or a couple of the Phillies RH batters do well? Absolute, but it’s not something that’s extremely likely. The more likely scenario is that Blach has his ground ball working and limits the Phillies to minimal damage.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.330 0.287 0.095 22.0% 7.0% 19.1% 58.3% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.293 0.350 0.057 30.4% 13.0% 18.4% 63.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.351 0.337 0.215 35.0% 11.1% 21.1% 48.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.372 0.375 0.323 35.1% 9.8% 22.4% 35.1% 1B $3,400 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.342 0.358 0.223 38.4% 6.6% 16.4% 44.2% 3B $2,900 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.424 0.325 0.303 39.1% 10.0% 27.3% 50.7% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,400
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.366 0.299 0.279 29.5% 7.1% 28.8% 47.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.233 0.256 0.108 24.8% 2.0% 18.3% 40.6% SS $2,600 SS $2,800 SS $5,600
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.049 0.086 0.000 8.3% 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% P $7,200 P $6,200 P $12,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda torontomlb Francisco Liriano
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-118 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.299 33.1% 8.1% 28.4% 46.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.301 33.1% 7.9% 24.3% 59.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.300 30.5% 5.3% 26.6% 47.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.348 0.332 34.0% 13.7% 22.3% 49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda
michael-pineda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.40 4.82 27.4% 7.0% 45.8% 32.7% 17.2%
2017 10 3.02 3.32 27.5% 5.0% 50.9% 28.1% 16.9%

Michael Pineda currently has a 27.5% K rate and 5% BB rate. Those numbers roughly match last season. His SwStr rate of 14.2% also matches last season. Given that many of the numbers align we can be pretty confident in that we know who Pineda is. When he has his best stuff, Pineda is as good as any pitcher in baseball. The main problem with Pineda is that even when he has his best stuff he’ll leave a fastball right down the middle and give up a home run. This season his HR/FB rate is at 22%. That number is bound to regress closer to his career average of 12.7%. The main problem here is the matchup. The Blue Jays rank 25th in K rate against RH pitching at 19.5%. The Blue Jays finally look like an elite offense again with Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson back. They owns a .368 wOBA and 131 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Both numbers trail only the Astros.

Quick Breakdown: A matchup with the Blue Jays is what ultimately relegates Pineda to tournament status. We have Strasburg and Kershaw pitching tonight. If you are on a single-pitcher site, they are clearly a tier above Pineda. The 27.5% K rate and 5% BB rate are hard to ignore here. Pineda is usable in tournaments or as an SP2, even in this matchup.

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.38 4.69 23.0% 11.6% 52.0% 34.8% 19.4%
2017 7 5.26 6.35 21.6% 16.6% 48.2% 28.6% 9.5%

This season, Francsisco Liriano owns a 21.6% K rate and 16.6% BB rate. The walks have been an issue for years. If you’ve ever rostered Liriano, you know exactly how it goes. You’ll almost always know by the end of the second inning whether this will be a good or bad day. Even though Lirinao has only pitched 28 innings this season there is one number that really stands out. He’s generating soft contact at just 9.5%. The Yankees are a worse offense against LH pitching (23.5% K, .321 wOBA, 100 wRC+) but this is still an offense loaded with power. If you used Marco Estrada against them last night when they scored 12 runs you already know that.

Quick Breakdown: Liriano is often tempting as an SP2 against lower tier offenses. The Yankees are not a lower tier offense though. The increased walks combined with almost no soft contact are huge reds flags. This is a good spot to avoid.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Over the past 13 months, Liriano owns a .316 wOBA to LH batters and .348 to RH batters. He also walks quote a few more RH batters at 13.7% compared to 7.9% to LH. Brett Gardner is absolutely on fire right now. He owns a .297 wOBA against LH pitching over the last year but he’s been way better than that lately. If you instead want to trust the numbers, Matt Holliday and Aaron Judge both hit LH pitching incredibly well and get the preferred split against Liriano.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.297 0.275 0.112 24.6% 7.9% 18.6% 51.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 LF $8,700
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.329 0.404 0.282 43.5% 15.3% 30.6% 39.1% C $3,400 C $4,200 C $8,000
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.354 0.356 0.266 42.5% 10.2% 20.5% 45.0% 1B $2,900 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.324 0.330 0.153 32.7% 6.7% 18.2% 47.0% 2B $3,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.362 0.373 0.220 37.9% 19.0% 33.3% 34.5% OF $4,300 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.360 0.299 0.145 22.9% 3.6% 8.7% 37.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.280 0.300 0.086 27.5% 7.0% 17.1% 45.6% 3B $2,600 3B $2,800 3B $5,600
8 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.267 0.300 0.159 36.6% 8.3% 19.3% 44.2% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.341 0.366 0.285 35.9% 11.5% 28.5% 35.9% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 1B $6,400

Elite Plays – Matt Holliday and Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Toronto

Loading up on Blue Jays bats against Pineda on a full slate probably isn’t a wise idea. Pineda’s home run struggles make his numbers look bad. This season he has a .275 wOBA against LH and .302 against RH. Those numbers include giving up 11 home runs. You could always try to hunt a home run here but the Blue Jays power bats aren’t discounted for the matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.300 0.294 0.118 26.3% 5.1% 15.1% 48.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.403 0.402 0.272 40.4% 14.7% 19.0% 39.8% 3B $4,000 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.363 0.370 0.222 39.1% 16.5% 21.8% 36.8% OF $4,200 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.315 0.398 0.202 40.8% 8.6% 18.9% 48.6% 1B $3,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.327 0.345 0.207 41.8% 11.0% 32.7% 30.5% 1B $3,900 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.322 0.317 0.158 30.3% 11.5% 26.7% 49.8% C $2,600 C $3,900 C $7,600
7 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.323 0.356 0.188 34.4% 7.4% 17.6% 40.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.336 0.312 0.171 31.3% 4.9% 19.5% 44.3% 2B $3,400 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.295 0.268 0.105 24.6% 8.1% 21.5% 57.0% OF $2,900 OF $2,700 RF $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
whitesoxmlb Derek Holland detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-190 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.262 19.3% 4.9% 22.1% 52.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.305 29.0% 6.9% 19.7% 47.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.358 36.8% 8.9% 15.5% 35.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.277 27.6% 5.4% 20.6% 50.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Derek Holland
derek-holland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 5.10 4.95 14.5% 7.6% 38.3% 32.2% 17.7%
2017 10 4.53 2.37 20.5% 9.5% 37.6% 37.4% 18.4%

Through 10 starts this year, Derek Holland has a 2.37 ERA. When we compare that to his 4.53 SIERA, we can see he’s been a bit lucky. Holland has seen his K rate increase from 14.5% to 20.5% yet his SwStr rate has only climbed from 7.8% to 8.4%. In short, the increase in strikeout might not be real while the elevated walks at 9.5% would be a concern if we were thinking of using Holland. The Tigers are middle of the pack against LH pitching at 22% K rate, .316 wOBA and 97 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: An increase in walks this season plus the fact that Holland’s increased strikeout numbers may not be real are enough for me to avoid in a tough matchup against the Tigers.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.03 3.06 20.4% 6.5% 49.1% 30.4% 19.2%
2017 10 3.93 2.65 19.5% 5.4% 48.5% 23.5% 17.7%

The White Sox are a great matchup for RH pitching. They rank sixth in K rate at 23.3% have a wOBA of .293 and a wRC+ of 80. Michael Fulmer has been impressive this season with a 2.65 ERA, 19.5% K rate, 5.4% BB rate and 23.5% hard contact. He’s also generating ground balls at 48.5%. He’s scored over 30 FanDuel points in six of his last seven starts (over 15 on DK). It’s tough to decide what to do with Fulmer. He’s either the fifth or sixth most-expensive pitcher on every site. We usually wouldn’t pay this price for someone with a K rate of 19.5%.

Quick Breakdown: Strictly because of the matchup, Fulmer is in play as an SP2 tonight. If you are playing single-pitcher sites, Fulmer is plenty safe but priced too close to the true aces. I would find the extra cash to get an elite strikeout arm instead of Fulmer.

Batter Grind Down

If you want to attack Fulmer with the White Sox, the way to do it is with RH batters. He has a .307 wOBA against RH compared to .232 to LH batters. The White Sox do have one of the lower implied run totals but there is some RH power here. Jose Abreu owns a .344 wOBA against RH pitching while Todd Frazier checks in at .214.

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.346 0.313 0.231 26.6% 3.4% 17.9% 53.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.329 0.330 0.142 29.2% 7.9% 9.9% 45.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.344 0.344 0.168 31.6% 5.9% 17.6% 45.4% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
4 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.314 0.318 0.218 30.9% 9.8% 22.9% 38.9% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.322 0.326 0.164 30.2% 6.0% 24.5% 53.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
6 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.299 0.275 0.154 29.8% 3.0% 26.2% 51.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
7 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.354 0.315 0.289 36.6% 4.9% 44.4% 26.8% 1B $2,400 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,800
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.291 0.303 0.028 14.4% 12.0% 12.7% 41.9% C $2,300 C $2,300 C $4,500
9 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.277 0.276 0.131 20.9% 3.7% 25.3% 39.7% 2B $2,800 2B $2,700 2B $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Detroit

Derek Holland has really drastic splits with a .239 wOBA vs. LH batters and .340 vs. RH. The Tigers have the second-highest implied run total tonight behind Boston. Holland has faced 214 RH batters this season. He’s allowed a 44.8% fly ball rate and 41.1% hard contact. Miguel Cabrera (.390 wOBA vs. LH) and J.D. Martinez (.378 wOBA vs. LH) are elite options tonight. With Ian Kinsler out and Justin Upton questionable, we could also get some great value in the lineup. If Dixon Machado is batting at the top of the order he’s an excellent value play. He owns a .285 wOBA against LH pitching over the past 13 months.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.268 0.263 0.045 28.3% 8.2% 19.2% 57.7% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.284 0.347 0.211 39.1% 5.5% 27.0% 32.7% 3B $2,600 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.390 0.452 0.194 43.4% 15.8% 20.2% 38.8% 1B $4,200 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.344 0.321 0.149 34.9% 8.1% 14.7% 40.1% 1B $3,400 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.378 0.408 0.226 45.8% 9.4% 21.6% 42.7% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 RF $9,600
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.329 0.343 0.195 38.2% 9.0% 27.8% 38.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
7 John Hicks RIGHT 0.434 0.447 0.385 36.4% 7.1% 14.3% 54.5% C $2,200 1B/C $2,700 C $5,200
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.163 0.203 0.152 46.2% 0.0% 60.6% 23.1% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,400
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.307 0.302 0.148 30.1% 5.3% 7.6% 39.0% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Dixon Machado and Alex Avila

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.