MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-29 01:51:34

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta								Philadelphia
			Lucas Sims							Aaron Nola
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-149							8.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.346	0.292	20.0%	5.8%	11.5%	36.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.300	32.2%	9.2%	21.6%	50.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.358	0.383	38.6%	6.9%	12.5%	35.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292	0.267	28.0%	4.5%	28.3%	53.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lucas Sims
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		20 of 25	Salary Rank:		17 of 25	Salary Rank:		11 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	5	5.45	4.13	12.1%	6.5%	36.3%	30.9%	21.7%
	L30	5	5.45	4.13	12.1%	6.5%	36.3%	30.9%	21.7%

Happy Monday might be an oxymoron, but I’ll say it anyway. We have ten games in what is shaping up to be a really fun slate. We have three ace pitchers taking the mound and a game in Coors Field, so tough decisions will have to be made.

Sims is making his sixth career major league start tonight against the Phillies. The first five haven’t gone as well as he might have hoped. He currently owns a 5.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. The low k-rate is a bit out of the ordinary for Sims, as he posted a strikeout rate of at least 24% in each of the last three seasons in the minor leagues. In fact, before being called up this season, he had a 28% strikeout rate in Triple-A. I prefer to take a wait and see approach with young pitchers and that’s my plan with Sims tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Sims has shown some promise in the minors, but I want to see it in the majors before targeting him in DFS.

Aaron Nola
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,800
	Salary Rank:		6 of 25	Salary Rank:		4 of 25	Salary Rank:		4 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	20	3.29	4.78	25.1%	6.0%	55.2%	28.8%	23.2%
	2017	21	3.81	3.58	25.1%	7.4%	49.0%	31.2%	22.9%
	L30	5	4.26	4.88	21.1%	7.5%	50.5%	32.6%	23.2%

Nola is an intriguing tournament play in a slate where he should get overlooked. His recent form hasn’t been stellar, but his numbers in 2017 have been solid as a whole. In 21 starts, he has a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He keeps the ball on the ground and induces a lot of soft and medium contact. Tonight’s matchup against the Braves is mediocre at best. While they are ranked 23rd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, they have the third lowest strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is a viable tournament play tonight, but most of my lineups are going to start with an ace or one of the cheaper options that we will get to shortly.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark tonight, but they draw a difficult matchup against Aaron Nola. Since the start of last season, Nola has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. He also has an above-average ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate against batters from both sides of the plate. Freddie Freeman would typically make sense as a one-off target in this ballpark, but he mentioned last week that his wrist is still hurting and that it’s only 80-85%.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies are having another down season, but one man has single-handedly given the fans something to look forward to in years to come. Rhys Hoskins has been on a ridiculous run since being called up from the minors. In his first 18 career major league games, he has hit 11 home runs and he’s drawn 11 walks. Do yourself a favor and quickly pull up his game log, it’s incredible. Even though his price has come up across the industry, he remains an elite play tonight against Lucas Sims. The sample size is still small (five starts), but Sims has allowed a .383 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Cleveland								NY Yankees
			Corey Kluber							Luis Severino
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-106							7.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.274	0.277	29.5%	6.9%	27.0%	45.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	0.313	29.7%	7.1%	24.7%	46.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	0.257	27.7%	5.5%	32.8%	45.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.297	0.282	28.1%	6.9%	27.1%	50.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Corey Kluber
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,200	Salary:		$13,100	Salary:		$25,200
	Salary Rank:		2 of 25	Salary Rank:		2 of 25	Salary Rank:		2 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	3.50	3.14	26.4%	6.6%	44.5%	27.6%	19.9%
	2017	22	2.63	2.65	35.4%	5.5%	46.5%	30.3%	22.5%
	L30	6	2.50	2.44	35.3%	3.6%	41.2%	32.3%	23.2%

This should be a fun one. We have two of the best pitchers in the American League squaring off tonight in Yankee Stadium. We rarely see a total of 7.0 runs in this ballpark, which is a testament to the skill of these two starting pitchers. Kluber has been locked in all season, posting a 2.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. The Yankees present a difficult matchup on paper, but they have struggled against elite pitchers this season. We’ve also seen Kluber pitch well in tough matchups, even on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber has as much upside as any pitcher in the slate, but if I’m paying up for pitcher, I’m going with Scherzer.

Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$11,500	Salary:		$22,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 25	Salary Rank:		3 of 25	Salary Rank:		3 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	11	4.06	5.83	21.2%	8.0%	45.1%	29.4%	20.6%
	2017	25	3.32	3.10	28.4%	6.5%	50.5%	28.6%	18.2%
	L30	5	3.38	3.41	30.2%	7.9%	44.7%	26.3%	11.8%

Severino’s numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Corey Kluber, but they aren’t far behind. In 25 starts this season, Severino owns a 3.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has an above-average strikeout rate and he’s done a nice job of limiting hard contact. The issue tonight is the matchup. On the season, the Indians are ranked seventh in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I’m not an ownership guru like Chris Gimino, but I do expect Severino to be the lowest owned of the three aces.

Quick Breakdown: Severino’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as Kluber’s or Scherzer’s tonight, but the projected low ownership is a nice selling point.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

This is one of those games that you either target for the pitching or avoid completely. I am not in the business of picking on elite pitchers, especially when we have great matchups to exploit (cough, cough: Jordan Zimmermann in Coors Field). I will be avoiding the Indians tonight against Luis Severino, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons combined.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The one and only hitter that I see as a viable option in this game is Gary Sanchez. It has more to do with a lack of options at catcher than anything else. Even at his discounted price point, Sanchez is a secondary play tonight against Corey Kluber. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez

Stackability – RED

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami								Washington
			Jose Urena							Max Scherzer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-220							7.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.358	33.2%	7.9%	11.1%	37.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.293	30.7%	8.9%	26.3%	32.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.314	31.4%	8.1%	20.8%	50.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.192	0.210	27.9%	3.4%	40.5%	37.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Urena
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		14 of 25	Salary Rank:		16 of 25	Salary Rank:		11 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	12	4.66	6.13	15.6%	7.8%	47.7%	32.5%	21.4%
	2017	21	5.07	3.68	16.2%	8.2%	40.4%	32.3%	19.4%
	L30	5	4.77	2.45	16.1%	5.1%	38.9%	31.9%	19.8%

When we are looking at trends for starting pitchers, my first two stops are to compare the SIERA and ERA on the year and to look at a pitcher’s performance over the last month of play. Urena has one of the biggest gaps of any pitcher between his SIERA (5.07) and ERA (3.68) this season, which suggests some serious regression moving forward. We can also look at his recent performance and it’s more of the same. In his last five starts, he has a 4.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%.

Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog pitching on the road against the Nationals, Urena is one of the easiest fades in the slate.

Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,500	Salary:		$14,100	Salary:		$27,300
	Salary Rank:		1 of 25	Salary Rank:		1 of 25	Salary Rank:		1 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	34	3.05	2.96	31.5%	6.2%	33.0%	30.1%	22.2%
	2017	24	2.75	2.25	35.7%	6.3%	38.1%	28.5%	19.8%
	L30	3	2.79	2.40	33.9%	5.4%	47.1%	32.4%	20.6%

Scherzer has been dealing with some discomfort in his neck over the last few weeks. He left one game early, then pitched great in his next two starts, then was placed on the ten-day DL. There are only two reasons that I can think of to fade Scherzer tonight. Either you are worried about his neck injury, or you are wanting to stack Coors Field and can’t afford to do it with Scherzer as your starting pitcher. These are both valid reasons for a fade, but Scherzer is my favorite pitcher in the slate. He’s been unhittable this season, posting a 2.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36%. He’s also pitching at home against a mediocre Marlins’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: If we assume that Scherzer is healthy, he deserves to be considered the number one option in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, but do we really want to target him against a pitcher with a 36% strikeout rate? Since the beginning of last season, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Much like the Yankees and Indians, I don’t feel great about targeting the Marlins’ hitters against an elite pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Ever since the Bryce Harper injury, the Vegas lines in the Nationals’ games have looked a little funky. They have shown very little respect for this team, even though they continue to win baseball games. The line isn’t an issue tonight, but that likely has more to do with Max Scherzer than it does the offense. Regardless, the left-handed hitters in this lineup are firmly in play against Jose Urena, who has allowed a .358 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to batters from that side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy (FD)

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Difo, Daniel Murphy (DK & FDRFT), Adam Lind

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Seattle								Baltimore
			Marco Gonzales							Chris Tillman
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-118							10.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.407	0.313	21.4%	5.0%	25.0%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.351	30.9%	13.9%	19.0%	42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.440	0.415	32.8%	5.3%	10.5%	51.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.349	34.5%	6.5%	17.4%	39.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Gonzales
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		22 of 25	Salary Rank:		22 of 25	Salary Rank:		17 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	5	4.74	7.40	13.5%	5.2%	50.0%	30.8%	24.4%
	L30	4	4.78	6.23	13.8%	6.3%	50.0%	28.1%	25.0%

It’s funny how DFS works sometimes. If we didn’t have a game in Coors Field tonight, everyone would gravitate to this one and it would become extremely chalky. However, with Coors drawing in so much attention, there’s a good chance that this one flies under the radar. We have two bad pitchers on the mound tonight in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs. Gonzales will be making his sixth career major league start tonight. While southpaws can success against Baltimore every now and then, Gonzales boasts a 13.5% strikeout rate and has to face them in a ballpark that benefits both left and right-handed power hitters.

Quick Breakdown: This is one of my favorite games to target for bats, so naturally I will be off of both starting pitchers.

Chris Tillman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		22 of 25	Salary Rank:		24 of 25	Salary Rank:		18 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	4.61	3.77	19.6%	9.2%	41.2%	31.5%	18.3%
	2017	16	5.54	7.75	15.3%	11.1%	40.5%	35.7%	17.1%
	L30	3	5.88	10.93	16.2%	14.7%	42.6%	42.6%	10.6%

Tillman has been atrocious this season. In 16 starts, he has a 5.54 SIERA (7.75 ERA), a 15% strikeout rate, an 11% walk rate, and a 36% hard contact rate. No matter how you slice it, Tillman has not had a season that any pitcher would hope for. To make matters worse, he is facing a very capable offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Mariners have six projected starters in their lineup with an ISO over .185 and a hard contact rate above 34% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: In what should be one of the highest scoring games in the slate, both pitchers should be avoided.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Rockies are my top overall stack in the slate, but the Mariners aren’t far behind. My hope is that the Tigers, Cubs, and Orioles will all garner attention and help lower the ownership of the Mariners’ hitters. It might be a pipe dream, but that’s my hope. Seattle has arguably the best matchup in the slate. Since the start of last season, Chris Tillman has allowed a .349+ xwOBA and a 31%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He’s also in terrible form, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, and the Mariners are facing him in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have actually been much better against lefties this season than most people realize. They are currently ranked tenth in team wOBA against southpaws. An Orioles’ stack is firmly in play against Marco Gonzales, who has allowed a .415 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season (five start sample size). As far as individual plays, the best targets are Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop, who all boast a .350+ wOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate against lefties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Boston								Toronto
			Drew Pomeranz							Marcus Stroman
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-118							8.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.299	31.2%	10.1%	24.4%	40.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.313	32.5%	7.7%	18.7%	62.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.287	31.6%	8.8%	26.3%	46.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.305	29.9%	5.9%	20.4%	59.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$17,200
	Salary Rank:		5 of 25	Salary Rank:		7 of 25	Salary Rank:		7 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	3.80	3.32	26.5%	9.3%	46.2%	31.5%	19.1%
	2017	25	4.07	3.18	25.0%	9.0%	42.9%	31.6%	22.6%
	L30	5	3.85	1.59	24.8%	7.4%	46.2%	31.3%	25.0%

Pomeranz seems to pitch well in every start, yet he always carries low ownership because on paper, most of his matchups look too daunting to play him in. It’s always tough for a pitcher in this division to rack up fantasy points unless you have elite stuff like Chris Sale or Luis Severino. I’m not going to talk anyone out of playing Pomeranz tonight against the Blue Jays on the road, but I won’t be joining you on that journey. Toronto will likely have at least eight right-handed hitters in their lineup tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Pomeranz is still affordable, but Samardzija is preferred at this price point. I’m also high on two really cheap pitching options, which makes it hard to find room for Pomeranz.

Marcus Stroman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:		4 of 25	Salary Rank:		5 of 25	Salary Rank:		5 of 25
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	3.62	4.37	19.4%	6.3%	60.1%	31.8%	18.3%
	2017	26	3.85	3.17	19.7%	7.5%	62.2%	30.5%	21.3%
	L30	5	3.79	3.51	18.1%	5.6%	60.2%	33.3%	20.4%

Stroman isn’t a pitcher that I use often in DFS. His strikeout rate is slightly below the major league average, which limits his fantasy appeal, even though he has an attractive 62% ground ball rate. Basically, the best time to target Stroman is in shorter slates where there aren’t any elite pitchers on the mound. Stroman has had some decent success against the Red Sox in his career, but I’m worried about his strikeout upside in this matchup. On the season, Boston has the third lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman has the same issue as Pomeranz. The matchup isn’t great and there are other options that I prefer over him in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Even though I have very little interest in these starting pitchers, I’m not going out of my way to target these offenses. Since the beginning of last season, Marcus Stroman has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. He also has an elite ground ball rate, which limits the number of extra-base hits against him. Xander Bogaerts is the one Red Sox hitter on my radar here. Not only is he 10-for-23 lifetime against Stroman, but he has been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits and six walks in his last 12 games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays used to be a team that we would auto-stack against a left-handed pitcher at home. Those days are long gone, but they still have four hitters with excellent power numbers against southpaws. Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, and Kevin Pillar all owns a .355+ xwOBA and a .210+ ISO against lefties this season. Donaldson is an excellent pivot off of Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado in tournaments, Smoak will get overlooked at his price point, and Kendrys Morales is basically free on FanDuel. Now, with all of that said, this is not a great matchup. Drew Pomeranz has held right-handed hitters to a .287 xwOBA in the last two seasons combined.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

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