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MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-29 00:43:59

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Houston at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Houston NY Yankees
houstonmlb Justin Verlander nyyankeesmlb Domingo German
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-130 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.182 0.199 19.7% 7.5% 40.0% 30.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.257 0.257 28.9% 7.6% 24.2% 44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.216 0.257 25.5% 3.8% 28.5% 28.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.364 0.355 46.7% 17.0% 30.5% 33.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $24,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.05 3.36 25.8% 8.5% 33.5% 34.5% 17.5%
2018 11 2.80 1.08 33.5% 5.4% 29.1% 23.4% 21.6%
L14 2 3.11 0.60 29.1% 3.6% 32.4% 18.9% 29.7%

We have a full slate of games on tap for Memorial Day. We start with two of the best teams in the American League in the Astros and Yankees. Verlander is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, posting a 2.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34% in 11 starts. While he has the talent to succeed in any matchup, we don’t need to go out of our way to target him against the Yankees. There are plenty of viable options on the mound in this slate. The Yankees’ projected lineup has a .333 xwOBA and a .243 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander is viable in tournaments, but not a core play.

Domingo German
domingo-german-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 3.93 3.14 29.0% 14.5% 54.5% 28.6% 25.7%
2018 3 3.83 5.59 27.2% 12.0% 40.0% 36.0% 14.7%
L14 1 3.53 14.73 30.0% 15.0% 80.0% 40.0% 20.0%

German is making his fourth start of the season. While he has a high ERA, his peripheral stats suggest some positive regression moving forward. He currently owns a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He’s certainly a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward, but is a risky play against the Astros, whose projected lineup has a .341 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18%.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog at home in a difficult matchup, German should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros see a favorable ballpark shift playing in New York. While Domingo German is a talented young pitcher, he is still largely unproven at the major league level. We are dealing with a small sample size (three starts and a few relief appearances), but German has allowed a .355 xwOBA and a 47% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Astros aren’t priority plays here, but George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa are all viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.374 0.366 0.173 36.2% 7.6% 17.0% 51.2% OF $4,200 OF $5,200 RF $9,000
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.404 0.469 0.174 39.0% 14.0% 12.3% 42.3% 3B $4,000 3B $4,200 3B $8,400
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.366 0.374 0.135 35.2% 6.8% 12.4% 46.0% 2B $4,000 2B $4,800 2B $8,800
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.367 0.356 0.232 29.9% 9.8% 23.8% 46.7% SS $3,900 SS $4,700 SS $8,400
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.295 0.225 0.134 31.4% 10.8% 26.6% 42.0% 1B $2,200 1B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $5,600
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.275 0.266 0.084 28.9% 3.5% 11.3% 54.6% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,400
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.294 0.202 0.145 25.4% 8.6% 18.3% 17.9% C $2,100 C $3,400 C $6,300
8 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.281 0.413 0.125 37.0% 8.8% 29.7% 38.9% C $2,300 C $3,700 C $6,400
9 Tony Kemp LEFT 0.413 0.430 0.182 40.0% 11.1% 11.1% 42.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball, but draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Justin Verlander has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA and under a 26% hard contact rate this season. The usual suspects from the Yankees are fine as contrarian plays in large field tournaments, but there are better matchups to exploit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.316 0.324 0.127 35.6% 15.2% 17.1% 49.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 LF $8,200
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.442 0.500 0.331 46.7% 15.1% 26.4% 44.6% OF $5,000 OF $4,600 RF $10,800
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.297 0.343 0.137 34.1% 9.4% 32.7% 55.7% OF $4,700 OF $4,400 RF $9,800
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.394 0.480 0.291 41.4% 11.2% 23.1% 36.8% C $3,600 C $4,600 C $9,300
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.352 0.219 0.309 43.9% 11.1% 13.9% 28.3% SS $3,500 SS $3,900 SS $8,000
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.364 0.423 0.200 44.9% 15.4% 18.3% 43.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,400
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.029 0.029 1B $2,400 1B $3,900 1B $7,200
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.378 0.454 0.207 39.8% 0.8% 20.3% 50.5% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,200
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.421 0.523 0.343 39.6% 7.5% 23.8% 30.8% 2B $4,000 2B $3,900 2B $9,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto Boston
torontomlb Aaron Sanchez bostonmlb David Price
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-180 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.392 0.365 32.9% 18.1% 12.9% 51.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.248 0.300 18.5% 5.6% 16.7% 48.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.402 32.6% 9.7% 20.2% 52.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.348 35.9% 10.0% 24.5% 42.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.62 4.25 14.4% 12.0% 47.5% 29.5% 21.3%
2018 10 5.27 4.07 16.8% 13.6% 52.4% 32.7% 20.8%
L14 2 5.89 4.00 22.7% 20.5% 40.0% 32.0% 24.0%

Sanchez can be crossed off our list of potential targets today. In ten starts this season, he has a 5.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 14%. To make matters worse, he is pitching on the road against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has a .386 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of 18% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: If you like positive fantasy production, steer clear of Sanchez.

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $10,200 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 4.05 3.38 24.0% 7.6% 39.9% 32.9% 20.7%
2018 10 4.11 4.08 23.3% 9.3% 43.0% 32.9% 23.4%
L14 2 2.83 1.80 31.5% 5.6% 44.1% 29.4% 26.5%

Price might be back. In his last two starts, he has a 2.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. Even though he’ll be facing a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark, he’s had plenty of success against this team in the past. Toronto’s current roster has a .281 wOBA with 63 strikeouts in 218 plate appearances against Price. I’m not exactly chomping at the bit to play him at this price point, but he’s certainly viable.

Quick Breakdown: Price is a nice play on FanDuel and a decent tournament option on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays are playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. They draw a mediocre matchup against David Price, who has allowed a .348 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson, and Justin Smoak are viable tournament plays in this ballpark, but only if you are making multiple lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.422 0.345 0.212 40.5% 8.8% 26.3% 48.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.294 0.296 0.171 44.0% 8.9% 35.6% 52.0% 3B $4,000 3B $4,100 3B $7,400
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.341 0.387 0.150 28.3% 10.0% 21.4% 52.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,300
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.380 0.334 0.269 33.9% 9.3% 10.7% 39.0% 2B $3,400 2B/3B $4,000 2B $8,000
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.282 0.270 0.172 38.8% 3.2% 17.5% 38.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $6,900
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.360 0.305 0.037 31.6% 17.6% 23.5% 57.9% C $2,300 C $3,100 C $5,900
7 Gio Urshela RIGHT 0.561 0.285 0.429 60.0% 0.0% 25.0% 60.0% SS $2,100 SS $2,800 3B $5,400
8 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.370 0.338 0.091 66.7% 21.4% 35.7% 33.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 CF $6,400
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.401 0.173 0.412 37.5% 0.0% 5.9% 50.0% 2B $2,100 2B $2,900 2B $5,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

The Red Sox have one of the highest implied run totals on the board. They are playing at home and draw an exploitable matchup against Aaron Sanchez. While he does have an above-average ground ball rate, he has allowed a .365 xwOBA to lefties and a .402 xwOBA to righties this season. Mookie Betts is currently on the wrong side of questionable, but this is still a great offense to target given the matchup and ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.517 0.442 0.365 49.6% 11.9% 13.1% 30.8% OF $5,500 OF $6,000 RF $11,500
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.370 0.416 0.225 28.2% 13.1% 13.1% 34.7% OF $4,200 OF $5,000 LF $9,800
3 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.490 0.472 0.361 39.7% 11.6% 16.8% 39.7% 1B $3,900 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.478 0.495 0.380 52.2% 9.5% 23.1% 45.1% OF $4,600 OF $5,400 RF $9,900
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.396 0.388 0.275 39.8% 2.6% 19.0% 46.6% SS $4,200 SS $4,200 SS $8,500
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.360 0.354 0.190 42.9% 9.4% 24.5% 42.3% 3B $3,700 3B $3,600 3B $6,500
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.267 0.277 0.147 25.5% 2.2% 18.7% 46.2% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,200 3B $6,600
8 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.322 0.236 0.137 34.3% 10.2% 25.4% 45.2% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,800
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.271 0.274 0.031 22.4% 2.9% 13.3% 42.9% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,100

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Rafael Devers, Dustin Pedroia

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Washington Baltimore
washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez baltimoremlb Alex Cobb
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-124 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.186 0.198 19.4% 3.6% 32.1% 52.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.506 0.432 38.5% 3.9% 12.8% 45.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.326 31.2% 12.8% 22.3% 51.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.394 0.362 35.9% 5.4% 10.8% 55.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $10,000 Salary: $18,800
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.41 2.96 22.7% 9.6% 45.8% 29.3% 21.9%
2018 10 3.99 2.38 24.6% 10.7% 51.6% 28.5% 17.1%
L14 2 5.09 3.00 19.6% 13.7% 48.5% 20.6% 17.7%

Every DFS player has their go-to plays. Gonzalez has never been mine. In fact, I’m pretty sure that I’ve been on the wrong side of him in 90% of his starts over the last few seasons. It’s to the point where I don’t even consider him when there are viable pivots. While the Orioles may not have the best numbers against left-handed pitching this season, they are still a potent offense at home.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez isn’t a bad play by any means, but there are better ones.

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.48 3.66 17.3% 5.9% 47.8% 36.9% 14.9%
2018 8 4.61 7.32 11.6% 4.8% 51.3% 36.9% 17.8%
L14 2 5.02 8.10 12.5% 6.3% 43.6% 35.9% 18.0%

Cobb has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. In his eight starts, he has a 4.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He has a decent ground ball rate, but is still giving up a lot of hard contact. When you don’t generate strikeouts, you are going to give up runs, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Cobb should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals see a ballpark boost playing in Baltimore, they draw a favorable matchup against Alex Cobb, and they get to utilize the DH in this series. In addition to having a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate, Cobb has allowed a .432 xwOBA to lefties and a .362 xwOBA to righties this season. Trea Turner is a borderline elite play at shortstop, Bryce Harper has nearly as much upside as any hitter in the slate, and the left-handed bats of Matt Adams and Juan Soto make solid tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.358 0.414 0.162 38.9% 11.7% 21.0% 55.1% SS $4,400 SS $4,800 IF/OF $9,400
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.468 0.399 0.357 45.6% 21.8% 17.0% 36.7% OF $5,100 OF $5,600 RF $11,000
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.399 0.440 0.176 36.8% 11.5% 9.4% 36.0% 3B $3,900 3B $4,500 3B $7,700
4 Matt Adams LEFT 0.445 0.349 0.385 44.6% 13.4% 19.6% 32.4% 1B $4,300 1B/OF $4,300 1B $7,700
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.598 0.512 0.923 60.0% 13.3% 20.0% 30.0% 1B $4,200 1B/3B $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Juan Soto LEFT 0.296 0.450 0.111 40.0% 10.0% 40.0% 40.0% OF $3,700 OF $3,900 LF $6,500
7 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.278 0.253 0.076 23.5% 12.7% 19.0% 39.2% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,500
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.281 0.247 0.100 29.6% 9.8% 29.3% 51.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
9 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.312 0.306 0.089 16.0% 13.9% 16.7% 52.1% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,200 2B $5,500

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams, Juan Soto

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Even though I rarely roster Gio Gonzalez, I typically avoid the offense that he’s facing. His unwillingness to throw strikes consistently drives me crazy, but he is incredibly tough on lefties and has held righties to a .326 xwOBA and a 31% hard contact rate this season. Manny Machado and Danny Valencia have mashed left-handed pitching to the tune of .469 and .432 xwOBAs this season. They are both elite tournament plays here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.343 0.365 0.188 34.7% 9.9% 21.1% 67.3% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $6,700
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.351 0.378 0.066 31.5% 3.1% 12.5% 40.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 CF $6,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.469 0.375 0.370 43.1% 11.3% 6.5% 31.4% SS $4,900 SS $5,400 3B $9,700
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.311 0.244 0.077 28.1% 7.0% 16.3% 37.5% 2B $3,300 2B $3,600 2B $7,500
5 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.432 0.472 0.226 34.1% 10.2% 15.3% 40.9% 3B $2,600 3B $3,300 3B $6,000
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.309 0.341 0.154 35.3% 0.0% 34.6% 52.9% OF $2,900 1B $3,500 DH $6,800
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.323 0.268 0.217 46.2% 9.6% 38.5% 38.5% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 IF/OF $5,700
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.256 0.240 0.125 25.0% 7.7% 30.8% 31.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 RF $5,900
9 Andrew Susac RIGHT 0.152 0.144 0.053 18.2% 0.0% 42.1% 36.4% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,800

Elite Plays – Manny Machado (GPP), Danny Valencia (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (Cash), Danny Valencia (Cash), Trey Mancini, Adam Jones

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Angels at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

LA Angels Detroit
laangelsmlb Tyler Skaggs detroitmlb Matt Boyd
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-142 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.211 0.311 38.6% 3.2% 27.0% 54.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.202 0.260 41.7% 4.0% 20.0% 36.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.305 39.1% 8.3% 24.9% 45.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.307 28.6% 9.4% 19.5% 31.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Skaggs
tyler-skaggs-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $18,800
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.44 4.55 20.8% 7.7% 41.8% 32.2% 20.8%
2018 10 3.49 3.11 25.4% 6.9% 48.4% 39.0% 11.0%
L14 2 3.41 3.27 27.1% 6.3% 33.3% 46.7% 13.3%

Skaggs is having a career season. In ten starts, he has a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He has been tough on right-handed hitters this season (.305 xwOBA with a 25% k-rate), which bodes well for a matchup against the right-handed heavy Tigers. This game has a high total, but Skaggs has enough strikeout upside to overcome a couple of earned runs against him.

Quick Breakdown: Skaggs isn’t the safest play on the board, but he’s on my radar for tournaments.

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.94 5.27 18.2% 8.8% 38.1% 34.6% 21.0%
2018 9 4.57 3.29 19.6% 8.1% 32.9% 31.8% 22.3%
L14 2 4.62 3.60 23.1% 12.8% 37.5% 40.0% 12.0%

Boyd has a low ERA, but eventually will run into some regression. His SIERA is more than a run higher than his ERA and his hard contact rate is nearly as high as his ground ball rate. The Angels will have eight or nine right-handed hitters in their lineup, which is a bit troublesome for a pitcher that has allowed a career .347 wOBA to righties.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll keep trusting the advanced stats and keep fading Boyd.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels see a generous ballpark bump playing in Comerica and they draw a decent matchup against Matt Boyd. He has a slightly below-average strikeout rate and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that has historically struggled against right-handed power. Mike Trout is the best hitter in baseball and well worth the hefty price tag. Justin Upton missed Sunday’s game with an arm injury, but will be an elite play if back in the lineup. Zack Cozart, Albert Pujols, and Andrelton Simmons are viable if you want to stack the Angels.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.319 0.294 0.167 42.5% 8.2% 10.2% 22.5% 3B $2,900 2B/3B $3,200 SS $5,800
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.481 0.496 0.353 34.6% 20.9% 18.6% 23.1% OF $5,400 OF $5,800 CF $10,200
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.325 0.331 0.086 39.1% 10.3% 30.8% 34.8% OF $3,800 OF $3,900 LF $7,300
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.283 0.359 0.088 35.7% 5.4% 18.9% 35.7% 1B $3,000 1B $3,400 1B $6,000
5 Shohei Ohtani LEFT 0.255 0.355 0.043 20.0% 14.8% 29.6% 86.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.335 0.377 0.098 29.8% 17.7% 6.5% 55.3% SS $3,700 SS $3,700 SS $7,600
7 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.225 0.304 0.054 27.3% 5.1% 10.3% 27.3% 2B $2,800 2B $3,100 2B $5,600
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.274 0.226 0.154 50.0% 6.5% 38.7% 33.3% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Chris Young RIGHT 0.258 0.259 0.161 26.1% 5.9% 23.5% 34.8% OF $2,100 P $4,000 LF $4,500

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers have good numbers against left-handed pitching and they have a right-handed heavy lineup to throw at Tyler Skaggs. The problem is that he has an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. I will be looking elsewhere for stacks, but Nick Castellanos and John Hicks are on my radar for low-owned tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.243 0.244 0.067 50.0% 4.1% 26.5% 50.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,800
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.410 0.377 0.191 43.2% 7.7% 19.2% 32.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 IF/OF $7,600
3 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.320 0.353 0.295 35.5% 10.2% 26.5% 48.4% 3B $3,600 3B $3,800 3B $6,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.336 0.360 0.156 27.5% 6.3% 10.4% 47.5% C $2,200 1B $3,000 1B $5,800
5 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.391 0.442 0.222 40.9% 10.0% 16.7% 40.9% OF $2,900 3B/OF $3,800 1B $6,600
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.469 0.384 0.241 40.0% 16.7% 13.9% 28.0% C $2,700 1B/C $3,300 C $6,300
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.458 0.333 0.211 46.7% 11.6% 18.6% 40.0% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $5,800
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.349 0.348 0.242 28.1% 5.3% 7.9% 35.5% SS $2,800 SS $3,200 SS $5,500
9 Victor Reyes RIGHT 0.310 0.179 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 RF $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, John Hicks (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets at Atlanta – 1:10 PM ET

NY Mets Atlanta
nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom atlantamlb Max Fried
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-125 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.254 0.247 21.9% 7.2% 33.3% 36.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.609 0.281 66.7% 22.2% 44.4% 0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.217 0.227 28.2% 6.7% 33.3% 49.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.365 46.2% 5.9% 17.7% 41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,700 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $25,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.44 3.53 28.9% 7.1% 45.3% 31.9% 21.3%
2018 10 2.73 1.54 33.3% 6.9% 43.5% 25.2% 26.7%
L14 3 2.55 0.60 37.1% 8.1% 38.7% 28.1% 18.8%

DeGrom is proving that he deserves to be considered as one of the game’s elite pitchers. In ten starts this season, he has a 2.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33%. He has good control and he generates a lot of soft and medium contact. He runs into the buzzsaw that is the Braves’ offense. They have been knocking around elite pitchers all season, so this should be a fun battle. There really isn’t an obvious play at pitcher in this slate, so many will gravitate to deGrom. I’ll have some ownership in tournaments, but may look to save on pitching in cash games.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom has been incredible all season, but so has the Braves’ offense. I will limit my deGrom exposure to GPPs.

Max Fried
max-fried-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 4.13 3.81 18.2% 9.9% 65.1% 28.9% 20.5%
2018 0 3.70 6.00 26.9% 11.5% 33.3% 50.0% 6.3%

Fried is making his first start of the season. While he wasn’t great in his four starts last season, he’s a top ten prospect for the Braves and has flashed some upside in the minors. I generally take a wait and see approach in these situations, but Fried is $4,000 on DraftKings and he’s facing a Mets’ team whose projected lineup has a .283 xwOBA and a 22% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. This is a great matchup and he’s barely an underdog against deGrom, which makes me feel better about the play.

Quick Breakdown: Fried is an excellent tournament play on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets haven’t been able to get anything going against left-handed pitching this season. Perhaps the addition of Jose Bautista will help, but they still don’t have enough righties to scare opposing southpaws. I’d rather take a shot on Max Fried in tournaments than I would on this Mets’ offense, especially in a ballpark that limits right-handed power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.214 0.366 0.043 25.0% 14.8% 40.7% 66.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 LF $7,700
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.338 0.376 0.151 40.0% 6.8% 16.9% 43.2% 2B $3,600 2B $3,800 SS $7,700
3 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.343 0.319 0.065 25.0% 9.6% 5.8% 29.5% 1B $2,500 1B/3B $3,000 3B $5,900
4 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.316 0.390 0.121 26.3% 12.8% 38.5% 63.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 LF $7,200
5 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.333 0.213 0.368 33.3% 20.8% 16.7% 13.3% 3B $2,000 3B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,500
6 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.297 0.382 0.050 31.3% 8.7% 17.4% 50.0% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,400
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.279 0.334 0.067 30.8% 6.3% 12.5% 41.7% 3B $2,200 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,700
8 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.028 0.051 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 66.7% P $10,700 P $11,100 P $25,800
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.395 0.317 0.216 39.3% 5.1% 23.1% 28.6% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta

In large slates, we can afford to be picky. We don’t have to take a stance on every single matchup. I’ll have a share or two of Jacob deGrom in tournaments, but I will be underweight on the field. That’s risky enough, I don’t need to double down by targeting the Braves’ offense. On the season, deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .250 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.322 0.340 0.248 31.2% 6.4% 19.8% 37.9% 2B $4,200 2B $4,900 2B $9,200
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.373 0.362 0.195 49.1% 7.1% 29.8% 45.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.454 0.464 0.180 46.2% 15.0% 15.0% 29.2% 1B $4,400 1B $4,800 1B $9,400
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.410 0.342 0.162 32.8% 12.0% 6.7% 41.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 RF $9,000
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.325 0.265 0.183 38.4% 5.7% 8.6% 32.6% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $6,600
6 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.290 0.292 0.127 27.9% 7.3% 14.0% 46.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $8,000
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.398 0.390 0.208 52.6% 25.8% 15.2% 47.4% 3B $2,300 3B/SS $2,800 SS $5,900
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.286 0.168 0.119 28.1% 4.8% 29.4% 48.1% SS $2,900 SS $3,200 SS $6,600
9 Max Fried LEFT 0.379 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,500 P $4,000 P $8,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious