MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 8th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Boston at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
| Boston | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Eduardo Rodriguez |  | Jordan Zimmermann | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET-109 | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.318 | 19.7% | 9.3% | 25.8% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.310 | 30.4% | 5.2% | 15.2% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.312 | 29.5% | 8.6% | 20.8% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.367 | 24.5% | 6.3% | 14.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Eduardo Rodriguez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $14,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 20 | 4.44 | 4.71 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 31.6% | 46.0% | 27.6% | |
Welcome Grinders! Today is our first weekend MLB slate. We have a total of 15 games on the slate. With the way the sites have split these games we realistically have a five-game early slate and a 10 game late slate. Below I’ll give my opinion on each option based on which of those two slates the player is part of. The pitching options in these first five games aren’t great but they do get better on the late slate.
Let’s go ahead and kick things off with Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod is a 24-year-old lefty. He had a rough start to last season which eventually earned him a demotion down to AAA. He was called back to the majors in mid-July and ended up making 14 more starts. His 4.71 ERA aligns pretty well with his 4.41 SIERA. While E-Rod will have some value this season, a matchup with the Tigers isn’t the right spot. They struck out just 15.2% of the time last season against left-handed pitching. This game also features an over/under of nine which is the highest of the early slate and E-Rod is the underdog.
| Jordan Zimmermann | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $13,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 18 | 4.81 | 4.87 | 14.7% | 5.8% | 43.1% | 38.9% | 27.3% | |
On the other side of this game, Jordan Zimmermann isn’t a much better option. The right-hander owned a 14.7% strikeout rate last season which was the worst of his career. The lapse in strikeouts can partially be blamed on a couple of nagging injuries but that’s also pretty much who Zimmermann is. If you want to believe that Zimmermann is a better pitcher than the 2016 version that’s fine. I’ll personally be taking a wait and see approach, especially in a matchup with a stacked Red Sox lineup.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Despite not taking Zimmermann I’m also not necessarily loading up on Red Sox bats in case Zimmermann returns to the pre-2016 version of himself. The main options that stand out here are Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley and Dustin Pedroia. On a small slate though a Red Sox stack is in play as they can light up the scoreboard at any time and the Tigers bullpen is not great.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.356 | 0.134 | 33.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,800 | $7,500 |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.417 | 0.262 | 34.3% | 7.6% | 15.2% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 3 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.207 | 33.1% | 7.1% | 11.1% | OF | $4,800 | OF | $5,000 | $9,600 |
| 4 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.182 | 37.0% | 9.5% | 19.6% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B/OF | $4,300 | $8,400 |
| 5 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.293 | 0.182 | 36.7% | 7.3% | 23.4% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,100 | $6,000 |
| 6 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.379 | 0.263 | 39.5% | 10.8% | 21.3% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,900 | $7,800 |
| 7 | Pablo Sandoval | SWITCH | 0.112 | 0.000 | 33.3% | 7.1% | 50.0% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,500 | $6,800 |
| 8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.331 | 0.142 | 35.3% | 6.3% | 26.1% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,800 | $5,400 |
| 9 | Marco Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.296 | 0.093 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 17.0% | SS | $2,100 | 2B/3B | $2,800 | $5,400 |
Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi
Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia and Jackie Bradley Jr.
Stackability – YELLOW
Detroit
Despite the high total in this game, there are better pitchers to pick on in the early slate than Rodriguez and Zimmermann. The Tigers could throw out an entire lineup of right-handed batters if they want. The best options here are Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos who should be batting high in the order. As with any slate a talented hitter like Miguel Cabrera is also in play as well as a full Tigers stack in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.232 | 34.6% | 8.8% | 17.6% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,400 | $8,400 |
| 2 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.227 | 37.2% | 4.7% | 27.6% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,800 | $7,600 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.212 | 41.4% | 15.1% | 19.6% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,900 | $9,600 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.158 | 35.2% | 8.4% | 14.5% | C | $2,800 | 1B | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 5 | Justin Upton | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.201 | 37.3% | 8.8% | 29.7% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,200 | $8,000 |
| 6 | Mikie Mahtook | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.147 | 32.1% | 1.4% | 21.4% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,800 | $5,400 |
| 7 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.262 | 46.9% | 9.6% | 30.9% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,900 | $5,700 |
| 8 | JaCoby Jones | RIGHT | 0.225 | 0.211 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 57.9% | OF | $2,200 | 3B/SS | $2,900 | $5,700 |
| 9 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.140 | 28.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | SS | $2,100 | 3B/SS | $2,700 | $5,400 |
Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos
Secondary Plays -Miguel Cabrera
Stackability – YELLOW
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET
| Minnesota | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
 | Adalberto Mejia |  | Miguel Gonzalez | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CWS-119 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 1.060 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.296 | 30.1% | 8.5% | 17.0% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.335 | 40.0% | 9.1% | 0.0% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.300 | 27.1% | 3.7% | 16.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Adalberto Mejia | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $12,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 30 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 0 | 7.02 | 7.71 | 0.0% | 7.7% | 33.3% | 41.7% | 41.7% | |
Our second game of the day features an 8.5 over/under. That’s a high number for a game involving the White Sox and Twins. Adalberto Mejia faced just 13 MLB batters last season. He’s spent the past six seasons in the minor leagues. As Notorious mentioned yesterday, when a player is making his first MLB start it can go very well or it can be a complete disaster. We don’t have much data to go on here but I’m leaning toward the latter. The White Sox were much better against lefties than righties last season. They owned a .325 wOBA vs. L which ranked ninth in the league.
| Miguel Gonzalez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 23 | 4.61 | 3.73 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 40.1% | 38.0% | 28.6% | |
Miguel Gonzalez is a low-strikeout, high ground ball pitcher. He’ll take on a Twins lineup that did strikeout at a 22.3% clip against righties last season. With this being a short slate, Gonzalez is in play but he’s priced similarly to Michael Wacha. If he can keep the ball down, Gonzalez probably isn’t going to kill you but his low strikeout expectation doesn’t leave much room for error.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins lefties, as well as Brian Dozier, are in play here as one-offs or a full stack. Dozier owned a 0.361 wOBA against right-handers last season. As long as Max Kepler continues to bat at the top of the order he’s a strong play. The other option that stands out is Jason Castro. His 32.7% K rate is mitigated by Gonzalez’ low K%.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.260 | 33.3% | 8.8% | 19.4% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,600 | $9,000 |
| 2 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.216 | 33.8% | 10.3% | 18.8% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,800 | $7,500 |
| 3 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.195 | 24.2% | 5.2% | 37.6% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,500 | $6,900 |
| 4 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.136 | 31.3% | 15.2% | 15.5% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 5 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.222 | 40.0% | 10.1% | 36.4% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B/OF | $4,100 | $8,000 |
| 6 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.194 | 37.8% | 13.5% | 32.7% | C | $2,900 | C | $2,900 | $5,700 |
| 7 | Jorge Polanco | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.119 | 21.7% | 7.2% | 13.9% | SS | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $3,400 | $6,600 |
| 8 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.316 | 0.188 | 35.4% | 3.3% | 25.3% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,500 | $6,900 |
| 9 | Danny Santana | SWITCH | 0.287 | 0.092 | 31.3% | 5.1% | 21.4% | OF | $2,000 | OF/SS | $3,000 | $6,000 |
Elite Plays – Brian Dozier and Max Kepler
Secondary Plays – Jason Castro
Stackability – YELLOW
Chicago White Sox
Several White Sox right-handers are in play against Mejia in his MLB debut. Geovany Soto owned a .400 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu also check all the boxes here. The White Sox check in just behind the Cardinals as the top stack in the early slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Saladino | RIGHT | 0.344 | 0.100 | 32.8% | 5.8% | 16.3% | SS | $2,800 | 3B/SS | $3,600 | $7,200 |
| 2 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.130 | 37.3% | 2.1% | 27.4% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,800 | $7,600 |
| 3 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.360 | 0.174 | 28.6% | 4.7% | 14.0% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,100 | $8,100 |
| 4 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.238 | 39.4% | 9.0% | 20.1% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,300 | $8,400 |
| 5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.278 | 30.3% | 10.8% | 30.0% | 3B | $3,200 | 1B/3B | $4,500 | $8,800 |
| 6 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.152 | 41.9% | 9.8% | 23.2% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | $6,900 |
| 7 | Matt Davidson | RIGHT | 0.439 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 1B | $2,400 | 3B | $3,200 | $6,300 |
| 8 | Geovany Soto | RIGHT | 0.400 | 0.286 | 33.3% | 3.4% | 24.1% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | $6,000 |
| 9 | Jacob May | SWITCH | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,600 | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – Geovany Soto, Todd Frazier, and Melky Cabrera
Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu
Stackability – GREEN
Cincinnati at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET
| Cincinnati | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | Bronson Arroyo |  | Michael Wacha | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL-178 | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.313 | 30.5% | 7.0% | 18.4% | ||||
| SP vs. Right (2016) | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.358 | 29.7% | 7.7% | 19.1% | ||||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Bronson Arroyo | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | $10,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 29 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
To say the Reds don’t have a very talented pitching staff this season would be an understatement. They’ve brought in 40-year-old Bronson Arroyo to make a start against the Cardinals. Arroyo hasn’t pitched in the majors since his 2014 season with the Diamondbacks. Even then the right-hander was showing declining skills with a 13.2% K rate. Arroyo tried to re-invent himself as a groundball pitcher that season with a 53.2% groundball rate. Most of those grounders were coming against left-handed batters (59.1%). That same season he owned a .378 wOBA to right-handers. He’s certainly not a good option here against a Cardinals lineup that had the fourth best wOBA versus right-handers last season.
| Michael Wacha | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $14,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 24 | 4.31 | 5.09 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 46.6% | 29.6% | 30.0% | |
At the end of the 2013 season, Michael Wacha looked like a rising star. Since then he struggled through injuries and bad luck. He pitched just 138 innings in 2016. The good news here is that there is room for improvement and Wacha’s ERA of 5.09 exceeded his SIERA of 4.31. The Reds owned a respectable K rate of just 20.8% against right-handed pitching last season. That ranked 18 of 30. If this were a larger slate I would look elsewhere. It’s not though and every other pitching option has some sort of negative attached. As the largest favorite on the board, Wacha is sure to draw quite a bit of ownership on the early slate.
Batter Grind Down
The Reds were not a great offense against right-handed pitching last season. As a team, they owned a wRC of 91. As a reminder, wRC is meant to measure a hitter’s value in runs created. A score of 100 is supposed to be league average. By any account, this Reds offense is below average. The one player who stands out here is Joey Votto. Last season Votto owned a .427 wOBA against right-handed pitching. If you want to dig deeper than that, Adam Duvall had a strong ISO of .261 against right-handers but he strikes out too much for my liking at 26.5%.
Cincinnati
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.308 | 0.086 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 19.7% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,000 | $7,600 |
| 2 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.071 | 19.4% | 1.9% | 14.0% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/SS | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.427 | 0.257 | 41.7% | 17.5% | 15.9% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,800 | $9,200 |
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.261 | 38.7% | 5.8% | 26.5% | OF | $3,600 | 1B/OF | $4,100 | $8,000 |
| 5 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.135 | 33.7% | 7.3% | 24.5% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B/SS | $3,500 | $6,800 |
| 6 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.165 | 33.3% | 6.9% | 22.8% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 | $7,200 |
| 7 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.154 | 30.3% | 7.1% | 15.9% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,400 | $6,800 |
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.322 | 0.130 | 31.1% | 9.8% | 14.2% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,700 | $5,400 |
| 9 | Bronson Arroyo | RIGHT | P | $5,900 | P | $5,000 | $10,000 |
Elite Plays – Joey Votto
Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall
Stackability – ORANGE
St. Louis
The top stack in the early slate is the Cardinals offense against Bronson Arroyo. He’s making his first start since 2014 and the Cardinals have players on both sides of the plate who can hit right-handers. Aledmys Diaz is the top option here. He figures to bat near the top of the order. He had a 0.385 wOBA against right-handers last season. Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko (If he is in the lineup), Dexter Fowler and Randal Grichuk also grade out well here.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.361 | 0.163 | 28.6% | 14.8% | 25.4% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,500 | $8,700 |
| 2 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.232 | 32.7% | 8.6% | 12.8% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $4,200 | $8,100 |
| 3 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.258 | 47.5% | 14.9% | 19.1% | 2B | $3,000 | 1B/3B | $4,400 | $8,700 |
| 4 | Stephen Piscotty | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.160 | 33.6% | 6.4% | 22.4% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,200 | $8,000 |
| 5 | Yadier Molina | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.120 | 31.2% | 6.4% | 10.1% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,600 | $7,200 |
| 6 | Matt Adams | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.218 | 37.2% | 8.6% | 25.1% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $3,300 | $6,400 |
| 7 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.242 | 41.3% | 4.6% | 30.7% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,900 | $7,600 |
| 8 | Kolten Wong | LEFT | 0.299 | 0.119 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $3,200 | $6,300 |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | RIGHT | 0.084 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 8.6% | 54.3% | P | $6,600 | P | $7,100 | $14,000 |
Elite Plays – Aledmys Diaz and Matt Carpenter
Secondary Plays – Jedd Gyorko (If he is in the lineup), Dexter Fowler and Randal Grichuk
Stackability – GREEN
NY Yankees at Baltimore – 4:05 PM ET
| NY Yankees | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Masahiro Tanaka |  | Kevin Gausman | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL-114 | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.292 | 33.2% | 3.8% | 20.3% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.284 | 32.4% | 5.2% | 23.6% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.282 | 32.6% | 5.4% | 20.6% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.345 | 29.2% | 7.6% | 22.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Masahiro Tanaka | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $15,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 32 | 3.80 | 3.34 | 20.4% | 4.6% | 47.9% | 31.1% | 32.9% | |
Masahiro Tanaka is sometimes a frustrating DFS option. His numbers say he’s one of the very best pitchers in the league with a 20.6% K rate to go with a 4.6% BB rate. As we saw against Tampa Bay last Sunday, Tanaka can be prone to a blowup from time to time. Today, Tanaka faces an Orioles offense that was fourth in wOBA last season against right-handers at .334. The Red Sox will strike out though from time to time. What will ultimately determine Tanaka’s success today is if he can avoid the home run ball. Tanaka and Gausman are neck and neck as the second-best pitcher option on the early slate. Gausman gets the slight edge though on sites that heavily weight the win.
| Kevin Gausman | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $15,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 31 | 3.85 | 3.60 | 22.8% | 6.5% | 44.2% | 34.9% | 30.7% | |
Kevin Gausman is making his second start of the year after allowing two runs on four hits and striking out four against the Blue Jays on Monday. Today, he draws an easier matchup against a Yankees team that is trying to rebuild on the fly. Gausman had an excellent K rate of 23.8% last season. Most of the Yankees’ better hitters are lefties and Gausman held lefties to a 2.84 wOBA last season.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Gary Sanchez is the only Yankee bat I’m looking at today. He owns a .420 wOBA against right-handers. He hit his first home run of the season last night. If this Yankee lineup is able to get to Gausman, Sanchez will almost definitely have a hand in it. At their respective price, the rest of the Yankees don’t make sense when compared to similar priced Cardinals or White Sox bats. They are in play though as a low-owned tournament stack.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.108 | 26.0% | 12.8% | 16.0% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,500 | $8,700 |
| 2 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.420 | 0.321 | 40.7% | 8.3% | 22.2% | C | $3,100 | C | $5,200 | $10,200 |
| 3 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.188 | 0.083 | 37.5% | 14.3% | 28.6% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $4,000 | $7,600 |
| 4 | Matt Holliday | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.188 | 35.3% | 8.7% | 17.1% | OF | $3,100 | 1B/OF | $4,600 | $9,000 |
| 5 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.133 | 27.3% | 9.8% | 12.2% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,300 | $8,400 |
| 6 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.157 | 31.0% | 3.3% | 19.4% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B/SS | $4,100 | $8,000 |
| 7 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.327 | 0.167 | 33.2% | 10.2% | 26.2% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,800 | $7,500 |
| 8 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.188 | 47.8% | 6.8% | 39.8% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $4,300 | $8,400 |
| 9 | Ronald Torreyes | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.164 | 20.7% | 3.1% | 10.1% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B/SS | $3,100 | $6,000 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez
Stackability – ORANGE
Baltimore
The Orioles have a similar outlook to the Yankees today. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to try to attack Masahiro Tanaka on a slate where Bronson Arroyo, Adalberto Mejia and Miguel Gonzalez are pitching. With that said, this Orioles lineup does offer better options than the Yankees. Mark Trumbo and Seth Smith would have the best shot at making my lineup but there are better options in front of each at their positions.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seth Smith | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.176 | 34.6% | 11.2% | 20.5% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 2 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.195 | 33.4% | 5.8% | 15.6% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,500 | $8,800 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.250 | 34.9% | 6.4% | 18.0% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B/SS | $5,100 | $10,000 |
| 4 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.351 | 0.261 | 42.9% | 13.9% | 33.5% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B/OF | $4,700 | $9,300 |
| 5 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.394 | 0.305 | 39.9% | 8.1% | 24.9% | OF | $3,700 | 1B/OF | $4,600 | $8,800 |
| 6 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.128 | 34.1% | 6.3% | 27.5% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,900 | $7,800 |
| 7 | Hyun-Soo Kim | LEFT | 0.363 | 0.124 | 31.2% | 9.8% | 14.4% | OF | $2,600 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | $7,200 |
| 8 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.191 | 28.3% | 3.0% | 19.8% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/3B | $4,000 | $7,800 |
| 9 | J.J. Hardy | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.121 | 30.9% | 4.6% | 16.6% | SS | $2,300 | SS | $3,300 | $6,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo and Seth Smith
Stackability – ORANGE
Toronto at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET
| Toronto | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Aaron Sanchez |  | Chris Archer | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TB -127 | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.292 | 32.7% | 10.7% | 21.1% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.300 | 32.1% | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.260 | 27.9% | 5.0% | 19.6% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.305 | 32.9% | 7.3% | 26.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Aaron Sanchez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $9,500 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 30 | 4.01 | 3.00 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 54.4% | 25.1% | 30.3% | |
If it weren’t for his inflated price, Aaron Sanchez would be an excellent option on this slate. Sanchez is the reigning American League ERA champion. The biggest problem with Sanchez last season is that the Blue Jays carefully monitored his innings. The fact that he didn’t pitch late inning games hurt his upside. Sanchez has a decent K rate at 20.4% and induces plenty of groundballs at 54.4%. The Rays struck out at a 24.1% clip against right-handers last season. If you scroll down a bit there is possibly going to be three batters in their lineup that strikeout over 30% of the time. The only knock on Sanchez here is that he’s unlikely to get the win pitching across from Archer. He’s still a very solid option though.
| Chris Archer | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | $10,200 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33 | 3.50 | 4.02 | 27.4% | 7.9% | 47.8% | 34.5% | 32.8% | |
While a couple of teams are pitching their opening day starter, Chris Archer is the one true ace on this slate. In terms of wOBA, the Blue Jays were a top 10 offense last season against right-handers. That doesn’t mean we should avoid Archer here though. The Blue Jays struck out at a 22.4% clip last season against right-handers. Archer handled this Blue Jays offense just fine in four starts last season. He never allowed more than three earned runs and racked up strikeout totals of 9, 12, 7 and 4. He’s the consensus top option on an early slate where every pitcher has at least one cause for concern.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Given that I like both pitching options in this game I won’t have a lot of Jays or Rays in my lineups. If you are searching for a one-off option Josh Donaldson is probably your best bet. He owns a very respectable .404 wOBA against right-handed pitching
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devon Travis | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.166 | 30.5% | 5.9% | 20.9% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $3,700 | |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.404 | 0.268 | 40.4% | 14.8% | 18.0% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,700 | |
| 3 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.356 | 0.215 | 40.3% | 17.6% | 21.4% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,400 | |
| 4 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.311 | 0.188 | 42.7% | 9.1% | 19.5% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,600 | |
| 5 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.192 | 33.9% | 7.2% | 18.6% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,800 | |
| 6 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.170 | 29.8% | 11.1% | 27.1% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,500 | |
| 7 | Steve Pearce | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.153 | 30.1% | 9.8% | 15.9% | OF | $2,900 | 1B/2B | $3,300 | |
| 8 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.325 | 0.194 | 42.6% | 12.4% | 38.0% | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,000 | |
| 9 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.103 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 15.2% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,300 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson
Stackability – ORANGE
Tampa Bay
Similar to the Jays above, the Rays are going to have a tough task against Aaron Sanchez. I don’t mind taking a chance on Corey Dickerson or Brad Miller and they both own a wOBA of close to 0.340 against righties. They are tournament plays at best though when compared to Cardinals, White Sox and even Twins bats.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.338 | 0.267 | 30.8% | 6.6% | 23.3% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 | |
| 2 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.156 | 30.6% | 9.6% | 16.5% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 | |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.266 | 37.0% | 6.1% | 21.3% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,200 | |
| 4 | Brad Miller | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.259 | 35.9% | 7.2% | 24.4% | 2B | $2,900 | SS | $3,800 | |
| 5 | Steve Souza | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.164 | 30.1% | 7.4% | 32.0% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,700 | |
| 6 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.191 | 36.0% | 8.7% | 21.8% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $3,400 | |
| 7 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.193 | 37.0% | 4.8% | 31.0% | SS | $2,000 | 2B/SS | $3,100 | |
| 8 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.351 | 0.152 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 21.3% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,900 | |
| 9 | Derek Norris | RIGHT | 0.240 | 0.141 | 31.4% | 7.0% | 33.6% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,700 |